Blu-Ray.....Bashing?

[Woochifer]

It really begs the question, was it a bad idea of putting Blu-ray in the PS3. There a few ways to look at this. From a gaming side of it, Blu-ray offers little or no advantage over HD-DVD, it just increases the production costs to make the playstation as well as the games, thus increasing the cost of the playstation, and decreasing the volume of games available.

From the Blu-Ray player side of it, it was very possibly the best idea that sony had. By installing the blu-ray on the playstation, it really increased the awareness of blu-ray. And as Woochifer stated, that the PS3 has significantly increased the number of blu-ray players on the market. The PS3 has taken a lot of heat for having the blu-ray player installed in it. But in Doing so it has risen the awareness of blu-ray to pop idol status, while the HD-DVD still hides in the shadow playing the role of the indie band just waiting and hoping for thier chance. it really does utilize the saying that even bad publicity is still publicity. And that something that HD-DVD has totally missed out on, the publicity.

I think hitching Blu-ray to the PS3 was a mixed bag for Sony. They probably gave up a lot of market share on the gaming side because of the production delays, technical glitches, and added costs that Blu-ray created for the PS3. On the other hand, Blu-ray already has more players in people's homes and sells more discs, largely due to the PS3. If they can build on this early advantage, then it paves the way for Blu-ray to not only take over the HD disc market, but also the market for removable disc media on the PC side (where Sony formats had dominated with the 3.5" floppy format and the CD-ROM).

I'm not so sure that the analogy of HD-DVD as an "indie band" or a Toyota fits, because HD-DVD is still very different from the DVD format in the public's view.

Definitely the sales data is good news for Blu-ray. That said, I find it not very surprising at all. The new PS3 owners are bound to try out a disc or two to see what all the fuss is about -- the question is "Will the PS3 owners *continue* to purchase discs for a game machine?". On the AVS forums, the "Blu-ray January surge" has been talked about for months with both camps fully expecting it. Now if June comes around and the sales data still indicates a sales surge for BR, then I think it will be much more telling.

As for the poll, I said both would survive and I still believe that. I also still believe that despite the recent sales numbers, the nearly untouched 200 million dollar ad blitz for HD DVD will begin to have an impact on "getting the word out" about the format. I also don't believe the Blu-ray name is any advantage... it does say "different" to me, but different *what* I do not know... and this is coming from someone who owns one. To me, the name advantage is strongly in HD DVD's favor... they just need to get their advertising in gear.

Problem facing HD-DVD, however, seems to be boiling down to simple numbers. With 2 million PS3s already shipped, that alone puts Blu-ray at more than a 10-to-1 advantage when compared the number of HD-DVD players that Toshiba has produced (this excludes sales for other Blu-ray players and the HD-DVD add-on for the Xbox 360).

And the release slate for Blu-ray poses another problem for HD-DVD. The studios that are exclusively in the Blu-ray camp (Fox, Sony, and Disney) accounted for more than 50% of last year's box office. An advertising blitz might raise awareness, but it won't generate sales if people find that most of the titles they want are coming out on Blu-ray and not HD-DVD.

A danger for HD-DVD is Blu-ray's advantage on the sheer volume of new release titles creating a perception of inevitability. People who might have been wary of committing to one format or another might find Blu-ray the safer bet. And the PS3 makes Blu-ray an even safer bet because it also includes console gaming capability.

A lot of the posts I've read on AVS Forum seem to ignore the issue with studio support. Looking over what's due to come out on Blu-ray versus what HD-DVD has on tap, it's hard to make an argument for HD-DVD no matter how impressive the releases have been to date.

[Woochifer]

The early momentum is quite surprising considering all the practical advantages HD-DVD had. If poor marketing efforts are to blame then Toshiba and the HD-DVD group should really rethink being in this business altogether.

I agree though, too early to declare victory based on a small time period. What intrigues me is the momentum. People are finicky, if BluRay even falsely gets perceived as winning the war early on, most buyers are sure to bet on BluRay simply because it's winning or is perceived as being less risky, which leads to more sales, and the whole snowball effect begins. Not a bad thing. I just hope these things become more popular and cheaper, faster.

I think you're totally right about the perception and momentum. From the accounts I've read out of CES, it seems that the Blu-ray members wanted to create an aura of inevitability with the Blu-ray format. At first, I thought it all amounted to nothing more than exaggerated marketing claims and talking points, but the actual sales figures and release schedule have done nothing to dispell their contentions. At one point, there were rumors that Fox or Disney would announce support for HD-DVD, but the December sales figures seemed to only reaffirm that they're better off sticking with Blu-ray exclusively and keeping HD-DVD on the margins.

If various things I've been reading are correct, it looks like HD-DVD might try the price war approach to keep the format going (which seems to run contrary to why these HD formats were created in the first place). Some posts on other forums refer to Chinese companies that might dump a load of HD-DVD players onto the market before Chinese manufacturers pull out of the DVD market completely in favor of their home-grown EVD format by early 2008. Bottom line is that HD-DVD will probably push the price points downward, but there's no guarantee (or maybe even incentive) that the Blu-ray camp will follow suit. An article in Home Media Retailing projects that Blu-ray players will likely hit the $400 price point by the end of the year, but stay roughly $100 higher than HD-DVD.