The future? Its here

[pixelthis]

I thought the "format war" that we just lived through was a silly mistake.
Baiscally two bald men arguing over a comb while a terminator battletank
was about to roll over them.
I thought we collectors needed a new format for our collections, and Blu was it.
I also thought this format needed to get established before this became a net
world completely.
Comcast is already having a trial in 23 cities, you can get their content online.
Not just online music and video, but HD video as well.
ADD pay-per-view, with more and more new releases going "Day and date",
posting their content the same day as its released on disc(Blu or DVD)
and the future is screaming in.
I just got a new computer, another of a vanishing breed, a desktop.
Unlike my old one it handles HD very well, and this past week I have been amazed
at the quality and content of media that is out there.
Remastered Startrek, web broadcasts, music, you name it.
Sir Talky will disagree (doesn't he always) but while shopping I listened to the weird guy at Office Depot tell how he didnt even have a TV anymore, him and his wife got
everything off of the web.
This is great in the respect that you will be able to see anything you want,
whenever you want, but its going to hurt collectors, although downloading
and burning your own discs is a real possibilty, or keeping stuff on Hard drive.
One thing is for sure, the world is changing, and fast.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sir Talky will disagree (doesn't he always) but while shopping I listened to the weird guy at Office Depot tell how he didnt even have a TV anymore, him and his wife got
everything off of the web.
This is great in the respect that you will be able to see anything you want,
whenever you want, but its going to hurt collectors, although downloading
and burning your own discs is a real possibilty, or keeping stuff on Hard drive.
One thing is for sure, the world is changing, and fast.

Yep, I disagree. The fact is HD off the web lacks the necessary video resolution to really be called "HD". It is pre-filtered, and passing through the pipeline at a data rate that is so heavily compressed it lacks the spatial information of even 720p. Put that video on screens that are of more realistic sizes, and all kinds of flaws quickly become apparent.
Smearing during movement, colors that lack pop, and dropped frames are frequent.

My studio just got a huge report from a well respected research firm that states that the television by far is still the leading way of which consumers enjoy programming. According to that report, consumers use online video for programming they have missed on television. Nobody is turning to the web for the majority of their viewing programming. This is especially true since both comcast and time warner are putting downloading limits on their customers.

Online video webcasting still does not make anyone any money, so until they can figure out a money making model, don't look for this to take off anytime soon.

Pix, you are behind the curve. Online content has been available for years on the web. The same folks that watch online content in large numbers are NOT the same folks as video collectors. So the idea of online content effecting collectors is a best a pipe dream at this point.

[bobsticks]

.....

[pixelthis]

Yep, I disagree. The fact is HD off the web lacks the necessary video resolution to really be called "HD". It is pre-filtered, and passing through the pipeline at a data rate that is so heavily compressed it lacks the spatial information of even 720p. Put that video on screens that are of more realistic sizes, and all kinds of flaws quickly become apparent.
Smearing during movement, colors that lack pop, and dropped frames are frequent.

My studio just got a huge report from a well respected research firm that states that the television by far is still the leading way of which consumers enjoy programming. According to that report, consumers use online video for programming they have missed on television. Nobody is turning to the web for the majority of their viewing programming. This is especially true since both comcast and time warner are putting downloading limits on their customers.

Online video webcasting still does not make anyone any money, so until they can figure out a money making model, don't look for this to take off anytime soon.

Pix, you are behind the curve. Online content has been available for years on the web. The same folks that watch online content in large numbers are NOT the same folks as video collectors. So the idea of online content effecting collectors is a best a pipe dream at this point.

Dream on.
I just got through watching two hours of remastered trek, a very interesting
and very highq experience, especially on my 42" screen.
The HD I have seen is very impressive, especially since this is early in the game.
This isnt a bunch of desktop videos created with a bunch of GIF files strung together,
its full HD at 1080p.
YOU might actually want to check it out instead of just parroting a bunch
of Blu ray group propaganda you read somewhere, you might actually learn something.
You are the one "behind" the curve, as usual.

[frahengeo]

I thought the "format war" that we just lived through was a silly mistake.
Baiscally two bald men arguing over a comb while a terminator battletank
was about to roll over them.
I thought we collectors needed a new format for our collections, and Blu was it.
I also thought this format needed to get established before this became a net
world completely.
Comcast is already having a trial in 23 cities, you can get their content online.
Not just online music and video, but HD video as well.
ADD pay-per-view, with more and more new releases going "Day and date",
posting their content the same day as its released on disc(Blu or DVD)
and the future is screaming in.
I just got a new computer, another of a vanishing breed, a desktop.
Unlike my old one it handles HD very well, and this past week I have been amazed
at the quality and content of media that is out there.
Remastered Startrek, web broadcasts, music, you name it.
Sir Talky will disagree (doesn't he always) but while shopping I listened to the weird guy at Office Depot tell how he didnt even have a TV anymore, him and his wife got
everything off of the web.
This is great in the respect that you will be able to see anything you want,
whenever you want, but its going to hurt collectors, although downloading
and burning your own discs is a real possibilty, or keeping stuff on Hard drive.
One thing is for sure, the world is changing, and fast.

Very interesting topic/debate. I'm assuming that the point you are trying to make is that Blu-Ray is obsolete and more importantly, people will no longer purchase pre-recorded media such as CDs, DVDs, or any type of disc.
The trend seems to be that way. My Pre-Amp is hooked up to our home network, which allows for Net Radio and firmware updates. It would be easy to imagine a computer in place of my pre-amp to do all the audio decoding and at the same time pay my Visa bill. This could be the norm someday, but I think it will be some time before it happens. People are very resistant to change.

I'm not sure what your point is regarding the comment of someone not having a television. I've known a few unusual people that have never owned a television, but own computers.

[pixelthis]

Very interesting topic/debate. I'm assuming that the point you are trying to make is that Blu-Ray is obsolete and more importantly, people will no longer purchase pre-recorded media such as CDs, DVDs, or any type of disc.
The trend seems to be that way. My Pre-Amp is hooked up to our home network, which allows for Net Radio and firmware updates. It would be easy to imagine a computer in place of my pre-amp to do all the audio decoding and at the same time pay my Visa bill. This could be the norm someday, but I think it will be some time before it happens. People are very resistant to change.

I'm not sure what your point is regarding the comment of someone not having a television. I've known a few unusual people that have never owned a television, but own computers.

The point is, he doesnt seem to need a television, or home audio, gets everything from computer.
And my receiver has an ethernet port also, and its five years old.
I don't think disk media is obsolete, and as long as there are collectors it probably
wont be, but, really, whats the point of owning a copy when you can pull it up almost
instantly?
The printing press changed the world forever, you could make thousands of
bibles in a week, as compared to one guy making one in a few months.
Now with the net you can write something on a blog and have it on millions
of computers instantly.
And that just doesnt go for writing, but music, video, etc.
As long as the pq was not that good , big deal, but now HD content is increasingly
available, and this is going to change things fundamentally.
First casualty will be B&M video rental stores, Blockbuster has already said
they are in trouble.
Thats why a archival format like Blu is absolutely essential, the more established it is the better chance it has of surriving.
All I am saying.

[Feanor]

The point is, he doesnt seem to need a television, or home audio, gets everything from computer.
...

For me streaming or downloads won't be the solution for the forseeable future. B&m stores like Blockbuster aren't the solution for me either -- they frequently don't have what I want on the shelf.

Since I'm a patient guy and don't require instant gratification, I like Zip.ca, (like Netflix), where I can get almost any flick or TV series I want for C$2.60 a disc.

[frahengeo]

The point is, he doesnt seem to need a television, or home audio, gets everything from computer.
And my receiver has an ethernet port also, and its five years old.
I don't think disk media is obsolete, and as long as there are collectors it probably
wont be, but, really, whats the point of owning a copy when you can pull it up almost
instantly?
The printing press changed the world forever, you could make thousands of
bibles in a week, as compared to one guy making one in a few months.
Now with the net you can write something on a blog and have it on millions
of computers instantly.
And that just doesnt go for writing, but music, video, etc.
As long as the pq was not that good , big deal, but now HD content is increasingly
available, and this is going to change things fundamentally.
First casualty will be B&M video rental stores, Blockbuster has already said
they are in trouble.
Thats why a archival format like Blu is absolutely essential, the more established it is the better chance it has of surriving.
All I am saying.

Okay. I guess you are saying that the computer has changed how we communicate, how we entertain, how we receive information, and share that information. Yeah I don't think that anyone will argue with you on that one.

[pixelthis]

Basically the "web" has fundamentally changed everything pretty much like
the printing press, and like the printing press, its going to take awhile to asess
just what has happened.
And this is going to change how we view and listen to media, indeed is already changing it.
Its not just "blu" versus "downloading", that is a narrow scope.
Basically, the world has changed, and no one has quite grasped just what it has changed into

[frahengeo]

For me streaming or downloads won't be the solution for the forseeable future. B&m stores like Blockbuster aren't the solution for me either -- they frequently don't have what I want on the shelf.

Since I'm a patient guy and don't require instant gratification, I like Zip.ca, (like Netflix), where I can get almost any flick or TV series I want for C$2.60 a disc.

Feanor,

Has Red Box made its way to your area? If not, its basically video rental done through a vending machine and these machines seem to be located mainly in supermarkets and superstores (e.g. Wal-Mart, Target, etc). One can check selection availability, and reserve online for a rental fee of $1/night. Keep the movie as long as you need @ $1/night, but once the 25th day is reached, they will bill you for $25.00 and you keep the movie. I've been using it for well over a year and it is gaining popularity. Couple of downsides are that 1) the movies aren't delivered to your doorstep and 2) At least 1 movie studio has boycotted Red Box; claiming that they are eating into their profits.

[pixelthis]

Feanor,

Has Red Box made its way to your area? If not, its basically video rental done through a vending machine and these machines seem to be located mainly in supermarkets and superstores (e.g. Wal-Mart, Target, etc). One can check selection availability, and reserve online for a rental fee of $1/night. Keep the movie as long as you need @ $1/night, but once the 25th day is reached, they will bill you for $25.00 and you keep the movie. I've been using it for well over a year and it is gaining popularity. Couple of downsides are that 1) the movies aren't delivered to your doorstep and 2) At least 1 movie studio has boycotted Red Box; claiming that they are eating into their profits.

Oh yeah, we have a bunch of those, including one in a place that sells videos(moviestop).
Only way to rent movies these days, at least older ones, in the "brick and mortar"
mode, very little overhead

[Feanor]

Feanor,

Has Red Box made its way to your area? If not, its basically video rental done through a vending machine and these machines seem to be located mainly in supermarkets and superstores (e.g. Wal-Mart, Target, etc). ...

No, I haven't noticed any of these around here. I suspect I'd have the same problem as I do with b&ms, that is, limited choice.

I watch a lot of old classics as well as popular films that are 2-5 years old, so I find a relatively low proportion in stock when I go looking for them at say, Blockbuster.

[nightflier]

The one thing that the internet has done for me is given me access to previews and trailers at a rate and selection that never existed before. These load fast and are instantly watchable, even in high res (albeit with 2.0 sound). While I certainly agree that HD over the internet is the future, that future seems to be farther off than what I had expected (I know I'm having to eat humble pie in saying this). I now have a couple of BR movies sitting on the shelf (though no BR player yet) and even if it does eventually fizzle out, I expect to get at least a few years of entertainment out of it.

Unfortunately FIOS isn't available in my area and apparently won't be for some time. If only fractional T-1 was less expensive. DSL isn't fast enough for HD and I presume that this is where most of America sits, too. Unless there is some considerable investment in high-speed internet access (like in Japan), the possibility for BR-comparable content over the internet isn't going to happen any time soon. Software solutions like compression can only do so much.

Now for those who are happy with less, like 720p and matrixed audio, that may be nearer on the horizon. My guess is that in this economy, service providers and media conglomerates are banking on the hope that the average consumer doesn't have BR-comparable gear and will happily pay top dollar for a lesser form of HD. And even if they do have some of the components needed to get some of this benefit, they'll still pay for lesser quality content, because content trumps quality every time. Considering how gullible the consumer has been to pay and repay for the same content in new formats, it's likely this is how things will progress in this country.

In the end, the population is becoming less and less educated because of privatization of all viable sources of information, from newspapers to schools, and because of an inherent need in this system to keep people dumb enough to continue to consume at rates that support an artificial growth in production. Even after everything that's happened this past year, the mantra is still to consume ourselves out of the recession. Currently downloaded and steamed movies over the internet, for all their promise, are just another way to get the consumer to accept lower quality and still pay top dollar for it. Sad, really.

[Smokey]

DSL isn't fast enough for HD and I presume that this is where most of America sits, too. Unless there is some considerable investment in high-speed internet access (like in Japan), the possibility for BR-comparable content over the internet isn't going to happen any time soon. Software solutions like compression can only do so much.

That is pretty much true. Even if one don't have DSL and have broadband pipe line, there is no guaranty that one will get full bit rate connection as advertised. Recently FCC came down on Comcast for limiting their throuput to their customers.