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Toshiba fights back......well kind of
"Toshiba Deploys New HD DVD Marketing Initiatives Based on Strong Fourth Quarter Unit Sales
Mass Market Acceptance Confirms that HD DVD is the Consumer's Choice for
Next Generation High Def Entertainment
WAYNE, N.J., Jan. 14 /PRNewswire/ -- Toshiba America Consumer Products,
L.L.C. ("Toshiba") today announced that it is stepping up its successful
marketing campaign for HD DVD as it experienced record-breaking unit sales
in the fourth quarter of 2007. Major initiatives, including joint
advertising campaigns with studios and extended pricing strategies will
begin in mid- January and are designed to spotlight the superior benefits
of HD DVD as well as the benefits HD DVD brings to a consumer's current DVD
library by upconverting standard DVDs via the HDMI(TM) output to near high
definition picture quality.
As Toshiba achieved the #1 sales volume in the next generation DVD
category with an approximately 50 percent market share in 2007, HD DVD is
proven to be the format of choice for consumers. Coupled with an 80 percent
plus market share of all next generation DVD equipped notebooks for the 4th
quarter 2007, the HD DVD format has already paved the way to a high
definition digital AV solution by eliminating the boundaries between the
consumer's living room and on the go.
HD DVD not only creates the ultimate high definition entertainment
experience, leveraging all of the promise of the format such as superior
audio/video performance, Web-enabled network capabilities and advanced
interactive features - it also has a high-level of compatibility with DVD.
With DVD upconversion via the HDMI output, HD DVD players instantly make a
movie lover's existing DVD library look better than ever.
"HD DVD is the best way to watch movies in high definition," said Jodi
Sally, Vice President of Marketing, Toshiba's Digital A/V Group. "Our HD
DVD players not only play back approximately 800 HD DVD titles available
worldwide and deliver an entirely new level of entertainment but also
enhance the picture quality to near high definition on legacy DVD titles by
all studios. In short, we added high def to DVD which already is the de
facto standard format created and approved by the DVD Forum that consists
of more than two hundred companies."
New Marketing Strategy for Mass Market Adoption
Taking the holiday season sales based on promotional prices into full
consideration, these new manufacturer's suggested retail prices (MSRP) are
designed to meet the potential demand for HD DVD players in the U.S.
market. Effective on January 13, 2008 the MSRP of the entry-model HD-A3
will be $149.99, the HD-A30, with 1080p output, $199.99, and the high-end
HD-A35, $299.99.
"While price is one of the consideration elements for the early
adopter, it is a deal-breaker for the mainstream consumer," said Yoshi
Uchiyama, Group Vice President Digital A/V Group. "Consumer sales this
holiday season have proven that the consumer awareness of the HD DVD format
has been elevated and pricing is the most critical determinant in
consumers' purchase decision of
the next generation HD DVD technology. The value HD DVD provides to the
consumer simply cannot be ignored."
Extended Advertising Campaign
Toshiba plans to execute an extended advertising campaign that will
further enhance consumer awareness of the benefits of HD DVD and drive
sales to retail among potential consumers. Advertising strategies will
include television, print and online media channels. Toshiba will also work
with its dealers and studio partners on joint marketing and promotional
initiatives to promote HD DVD. Current promotions include "The Perfect HD
Offer" - a mail-in offer allowing consumers to select five HD DVD titles
for free from a selection of 15 with the purchase of any Toshiba HD DVD
player.
Consistent Viewing Experience and More
With advanced interactivity and Web-enabled network capabilities built
into every HD DVD player through a dedicated Ethernet port as mandated by
the specifications approved by the DVD Forum, Toshiba delivers on the
promise of a consistent entertainment experience through firmware updates
as studios launch new applications. HD DVD allows studios to flex their
creative muscle in ways never before seen. The latest of these new
experiences is online streaming. Now, when consumers connect their HD DVD
player to the Internet, they can stream new content or trailers, as
available, directly from a movie studio's server.
Universal Home Video, Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks Animation SKG
have reported that an average of 30 percent of HD DVD owners have accessed
Web- enabled network features and continue to do so regularly.
Ongoing Customer Commitment
In order to ensure that its customers will receive complete
satisfaction from their new players, Toshiba introduced the "HD DVD
Concierge" earlier this month. Consumers can now call 1-888-MY HDDVD
(1-888-694-3383) for answers to general questions about HD DVD, for
operational assistance or for assistance with various promotions.
About Toshiba HD DVD Players
With the HD DVD format, select HD DVD players allow consumers to
experience true high def 1080p for extraordinary resolution that matches
the latest state of the art 1080p HDTVs. These same players display images
at 24 frames per second, the same frame rate used by directors when using
film to create motion pictures, for a smoother, more film-like, viewing
experience.
Important Notes:
HD DVD with high-definition content required for HD viewing. Up-
conversion of DVD content will result in near HD picture quality. Viewing
high-definition content and up-converting DVD content may require an HDCP
capable DVI or HDMI input on your display device. 1080p capable display
required for viewing content in 1080p. Firmware update may be required for
some interactive features depending on content, which may also require an
always-on broadband internet connection. Some features may require
additional bandwidth. To take advantage of web-enabled network content,
installing the latest firmware (ver.2.4 for HD DVD player models HD-XA1,
HD-A1, and HD-D1; ver.2.7 for HD-XA2, HD-A2, HD-A2W, HD-D2, HD-A2C, and
HD-A20; and ver.1.3 for HD-A35, HD-A30, and HD-A3) is required. Web-enabled
network features require an always on broadband connection along with
specific movie titles that include this form of content. For 24p output,
content that was created in 1080p/24 frames/sec is required. Viewing 24p
output requires an HD display capable of accepting a 1080p/24Hz signal. Use
of REGZA Link, which is a feature based on HDMI-CEC, requires an HDMI-CEC
compatible display device. Depending on the specifications of your TV, some
or all REGZA Link functions may not work even if your TV is HDMI-CEC
compatible. Dolby(R) Digital Plus, Dolby(R) TrueHD and DTS(R) support for
up to 5.1 channels (DTS HD(R) support for DTS(R) core only). MP3/WMA audio
files not supported. HDMI audio output requires connection to a PCM capable
device. Because HD DVD is a new format that makes use of new technologies,
certain disc, digital connection and other compatibility and/or performance
issues are possible. This may, in rare cases, include disc freezing while
accessing certain disc features or functions, or certain parts of the disc
not playing back or operating as fully intended. If you experience such
issues, please refer to the FAQ sections of http://www.toshibahddvd.com or
http://www.tacp.toshiba.com for information on possible work- around solutions or
the availability of firmware updates that may resolve your problem, or
contact Toshiba Customer Solutions. Some features subject to delayed
availability. While every effort has been made at the time of publication
to ensure the accuracy of the information provided herein, product
specifications, configurations, system/component/options availability are
all subject to change without notice.
About Toshiba America Consumer Products, L.L.C.
Toshiba America Consumer Products, L.L.C. is owned by Toshiba America,
Inc., a subsidiary of Toshiba Corporation, a world leader in high
technology products with subsidiaries worldwide. Toshiba is a pioneer in HD
DVD, DVD and DVD Recorder technology and a leading manufacturer of a full
line of home entertainment products, including flat panel TV, combination
products and portable devices. Toshiba America Consumer Products, L.L.C. is
headquartered in Wayne, New Jersey. For additional information, please
visit http://www.tacp.toshiba.com."
http://prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/storie...4735440&EDATE=
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Sounds like a fire sale to me. People have no clue what is going on. Sorry for the poor folks that are gonna get suckered in by price slashes, only find out later that the format is dying. Hopefully there are knowledgeable sales people at retail stores to warn people.
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People should boycott Toshiba. They see the end coming and they are dumping all their HD players on unsuspecting consumers. They have nothing to lose. By flooding the market with HD players they are trying to force the movie studio's to back HD. And if toshiba loses, then at least they have unloaded surplus players sitting in warehouses and have recouped some money.
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Yep, sounds like border-line dumping of a non-international trade type.
Wow. Know what, with 5 free movies, I'm tempted to snarf a $100-$150 player just to be an up-scaler now if nothing else.
My hope here is that Sony calls and drops prices accordingly...that would be sweet.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kexodusc
Yep, sounds like border-line dumping of a non-international trade type.
Wow. Know what, with 5 free movies, I'm tempted to snarf a $100-$150 player just to be an up-scaler now if nothing else.
My hope here is that Sony calls and drops prices accordingly...that would be sweet.
*Toshiba's upscaling is very, very good through its hdmi connection. That's my experience playing sd dvds on the older A2 using its hdmi connection.
*Be prepared to wait approx. 4 mos. for your freebies. I bought my player on Aug. 29 and probably sent in my paperwork the first week of Sept. I got my freebies the first week of Jan.
*I saw an advertised price of $265 on the Sony 300 BR player (not sure of the complete model #, but it's the one with "300" in the title) over the weekend from one of the big chains. It may have been Best Buy. I think it included 5 freebies thru the mail too but don't hold me to it. That's the lowest I've seen for a Sony BR. How do these do with sd dvds?
*Personally, I think Warner played a role in sticking it to consumers by waiting until AFTER the Christmas shopping season to make its announcement - not just afterwards, but IMMEDIATELY afterwards. That's like pulling the rug out from under a whole segment of hd converts. It may not be a lot in absolute numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if Toshiba/HDDVD players outsold BR players in the last quarter of '07.
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At the very least, this is very good pricing on some already highly subsidized gear. Figure that the purchase includes a few free HD-DVD. And even if/when the format goes belly up, you'll still have a pretty good upscaling DVD player and something that will play all those dirt cheap HD-DVDs that will start showing up when stores and collectors alike begin unloading their inventories.
I expect that HD-DVD will disappear at the retail level long before support from its remaining studios and Toshiba dries up. Studios were still releasing Betamax titles long after it became nearly impossible to find Beta movies in video stores, and Sony did not stop making Betamax VCRs until 2004.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woochifer
Sony did not stop making Betamax VCRs until 2004.
Any idea who was buying them? Someone must have been buying them for Sony to bother making them that long.
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Recording industry types...
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMichael
Any idea who was buying them? Someone must have been buying them for Sony to bother making them that long.
The betamax survived because people in the business (video and sound editors) had standardized on beta for the higher quality. Sony was supplying them with product long after the retail demand had dried up.
Speaking of HD-DVD's demize, I wouldn't call this a BR victory, either. Yes, I know I was one who posted multiple scenarios that I figured would have changed the outcome, but it does look now like HD-DVD is going to die a slow painful death. Over at CES, the booths and presentations were overwhelmingly in favor of BR. But the other thing that was apparent was that downloadable content is on every manufacturer's agenda now. The fact is the format war lasted so long that it damaged both sides and gave downloaded content a real chance. Here's an article that came out this morning (apologies for the #$%@# ads):
http://www.computerworld.com/action/...8&pageNumber=1
I know that's not what everyone who bought an HD player wants to hear, but I think the widespread interest in downloadable content at CES is pretty damning for HD-DVD as well as BR.
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This is way in sony's favor because now they don't have to drop prices as they know their competion is dying. It will be interesting to see what sony does with their prices. They can slash prices to hasten the death of HD or keep prices where they are and let HD die slowly.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nightflier
Speaking of HD-DVD's demize, I wouldn't call this a BR victory, either. Yes, I know I was one who posted multiple scenarios that I figured would have changed the outcome, but it does look now like HD-DVD is going to die a slow painful death. Over at CES, the booths and presentations were overwhelmingly in favor of BR. But the other thing that was apparent was that downloadable content is on every manufacturer's agenda now. The fact is the format war lasted so long that it damaged both sides and gave downloaded content a real chance. Here's an article that came out this morning (apologies for the #$%@# ads):
http://www.computerworld.com/action/...8&pageNumber=1
There is one thing you just do not get, the American public is not ready for downloads to replace disc. The only thing downloads will effect is renting, and that is basically it. As far as I can see nobody is ready to trust their movie collection on a hard drive that can be corrupted and hacked, potentially ruining their library.
VOD, PPV has been around for ten years in my neighborhood. In ten years it has blossomed into a $200 million dollar a year business(downloads and VOD combined). In that same period of time the DVD was introduced, and has grown to a $42 billion a year business. Our internet is not ready for mass downloading and the studios are not going to support downloading over disc, they have already stated this. The vote againist HD DVD by Warner is widely seen as a rejection of Microsoft vision of movie distribution.
Bluray won this, and you need to face it. I told you it was going to happen, but you insisted that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price. It didn't help then, its not going to help now. Paramount is going neutral(it is going to happen for sure), and Universal will be the last to hold out(countering my earlier prediction because of new events)
Quote:
I know that's not what everyone who bought an HD player wants to hear, but I think the widespread interest in downloadable content at CES is pretty damning for HD-DVD as well as BR.
You have not been paying much attention to CES as of the last four years have. Downloading has been pushed every year in that period. Same interest generated, and still the public is not ready to buy it. So you can just give your internet sales job a rest. You have already been wrong once, so there is no reason to believe your predictions are any more accurate this time. Opinion pieces from a computer pundit is hardly a basis for fact. Especially since we are talking video, not computers. The guy doesn't even have his sales figures correct. And this is a basis of your point???
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That's it, I'm switching to HD-DVD! Hell, nobody told me I could download trailers. I can download those babies and make everyone wait 20 minutes for the movie just like the real theater!
If this downloading comes about I can see when new house are built there will be a multimedia interface panel in the living room, or every room in the house. Not just a power outlet anymore, you need power, phone, ethernet. possibly a cable feed and who knows what else. What? What did you say? "Sorry Peabody, I can't let you do that". Is that you Hal?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nightflier
The betamax survived because people in the business (video and sound editors) had standardized on beta for the higher quality. Sony was supplying them with product long after the retail demand had dried up.
Speaking of HD-DVD's demize, I wouldn't call this a BR victory, either. Yes, I know I was one who posted multiple scenarios that I figured would have changed the outcome, but it does look now like HD-DVD is going to die a slow painful death. Over at CES, the booths and presentations were overwhelmingly in favor of BR. But the other thing that was apparent was that downloadable content is on every manufacturer's agenda now. The fact is the format war lasted so long that it damaged both sides and gave downloaded content a real chance. Here's an article that came out this morning (apologies for the #$%@# ads):
http://www.computerworld.com/action/...8&pageNumber=1
I know that's not what everyone who bought an HD player wants to hear, but I think the widespread interest in downloadable content at CES is pretty damning for HD-DVD as well as BR.
GREAT LINK, but dont expect anymore from Sir T than the reply hes already posted.
Downloading is the enemy of the optical format his company is touting.
Not that it matters what he thinks, nor his little tricks, like concentrating on Internet
downloading, when Cable is whats strong and will be out of the gate faster.
He'll also tell you that the net doesnt have the "capacity" for massive downloading,
well, the oil supply doesnt have the capacity to keep churning out silver discs with content you can get over a wire.
I have heard about the "limited" capacity of the web for years, and it keeps expanding like a supernova.
I remember the first Mp3 I downloaded, took half an hour for a 5 mg file.
Today I download entire albums in the same time off of newsgroups, and PAYPERVIEW (vod) doesnt take anytime.
I have a 99$ 320 gig usb drive that I got from short circuit, its going to house my music collection, be both portable AND accessible, with sound rivaling a high end CD player.
High end CD players are basically obsolete, btw.
how much video is that? 347 hrs. HD video? 38 hrs.
The future is the hard drive, basically, thousands have been working on these in labs for years, quietly expanding capacity.
And you're a collector? Show that you have already bought a movie, and it will be replaced if you lose it, at least thats the idea being worked on now.
DVD was such an advance that it was a no- brainer to replace everything, which I did.
But as much as I like Blu, the picture is not enough of an improvement to warrant changing everything out, there are few Bladerunners out there, discs that you just HAVE
to have:1:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
GREAT LINK, but dont expect anymore from Sir T than the reply hes already posted.
Downloading is the enemy of the optical format his company is touting.
Not that it matters what he thinks, nor his little tricks, like concentrating on Internet
downloading, when Cable is whats strong and will be out of the gate faster.
He'll also tell you that the net doesnt have the "capacity" for massive downloading,
well, the oil supply doesnt have the capacity to keep churning out silver discs with content you can get over a wire.
I have heard about the "limited" capacity of the web for years, and it keeps expanding like a supernova.
I remember the first Mp3 I downloaded, took half an hour for a 5 mg file.
Today I download entire albums in the same time off of newsgroups, and PAYPERVIEW (vod) doesnt take anytime.
I have a 99$ 320 gig usb drive that I got from short circuit, its going to house my music collection, be both portable AND accessible, with sound rivaling a high end CD player.
High end CD players are basically obsolete, btw.
how much video is that? 347 hrs. HD video? 38 hrs.
The future is the hard drive, basically, thousands have been working on these in labs for years, quietly expanding capacity.
And you're a collector? Show that you have already bought a movie, and it will be replaced if you lose it, at least thats the idea being worked on now.
DVD was such an advance that it was a no- brainer to replace everything, which I did.
But as much as I like Blu, the picture is not enough of an improvement to warrant changing everything out, there are few Bladerunners out there, discs that you just HAVE
to have:1:
Sorry Pix,,
But the same issues that dog downloading over the internet dog VOD on cable systems. VOD of movies is a huge bandwidth hog. VOD is not making any money, and hasn't in three years. Downloading via the internet is not making any money either as three downloading services(including Walmarts) have already gone under.
Cable systems have to increase their bandwidth tremendously to send a 1080p file that is not overcompressed along with lossless audio. They are going to have to make it much cheaper, and to compete with disc it will have to come with less DRM. That is not going to happen. For both downloading and VOD they want MORE DRM to protect their investments.
VOD and Downloading are going to effect the rental market profoundly, it is not going to effect the disc collector for a long time until it can match the quality and performance of disc, is ownable and moveable like a disc is.
So what do I do, tell my buddy I am bringing my hard drive over so we can view movies, or do I tell him I will bring a movie disc to watch. Guess which I am willing to carry over?
In order for cable to be strong, its got to make money. A market that has only grown to $200 million in 10 years is not what I call strong or what anyone else with good sense would call strong.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dean_martin
*Toshiba's upscaling is very, very good through its hdmi connection. That's my experience playing sd dvds on the older A2 using its hdmi connection.
The XA-2 and the A-35 alos upscale very well. But so does the PS3, Samsung BD-P1200, the Panasonics, the Sony, and all of the bluray players.
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*Be prepared to wait approx. 4 mos. for your freebies. I bought my player on Aug. 29 and probably sent in my paperwork the first week of Sept. I got my freebies the first week of Jan.
In a short while you will be getting alot of HD DVD movies off ebay for cheap.
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*I saw an advertised price of $265 on the Sony 300 BR player (not sure of the complete model #, but it's the one with "300" in the title) over the weekend from one of the big chains. It may have been Best Buy. I think it included 5 freebies thru the mail too but don't hold me to it. That's the lowest I've seen for a Sony BR. How do these do with sd dvds?
Its the Sony BDP-S300, and it does upscaling on par with the A2
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*Personally, I think Warner played a role in sticking it to consumers by waiting until AFTER the Christmas shopping season to make its announcement - not just afterwards, but IMMEDIATELY afterwards. That's like pulling the rug out from under a whole segment of hd converts. It may not be a lot in absolute numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if Toshiba/HDDVD players outsold BR players in the last quarter of '07.
Dean, Warner announced at IFA 2007 in September that they would be looking at the fourth quarter sales figures and make a decision in early 2008 of which format to exclusively support. Sales figures remained 2-1 in favor of bluray throughout all of 2007, and player sales in December had Bluray standalones outselling HD DVD's, and bluray players including the PS3 outselling HD DVD 4-1. Worldwide, Bluray players have outsold HD DVD 4-1 in Europe, and its a complete blowout in Japan at 95% of all players sold. Warner looked at all of this, and decided to support bluray. It was a smart decision, and this format war has to end if this market is going to grow.
Toshiba didn't not promote their format well worldwide or in the states. They didn't get the studio support they promised, and their strategy of cutting prices to the point that every player is a loss has backfired and cost Toshiba $420 million dollars in losses. Their stock is down, and they are borrowing money to fuel these new price cuts on their players. They have not gotten a bluray manufacturer to switch to producing an original designed HD DVD player like they promised Paramount, and they were not sucessful in getting a bluray exclusive studio to switch sides as they have promised Paramount.
At least Warner is honoring their contract to the end, unlike Paramount which pulled product immediately and destroyed it cancelling orders left and right.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Cable systems have to increase their bandwidth tremendously to send a 1080p file that is not overcompressed along with lossless audio. They are going to have to make it much cheaper, and to compete with disc it will have to come with less DRM. That is not going to happen. For both downloading and VOD they want MORE DRM to protect their investments.
VOD and Downloading are going to effect the rental market profoundly, it is not going to effect the disc collector for a long time until it can match the quality and performance of disc, is ownable and moveable like a disc is.
So what do I do, tell my buddy I am bringing my hard drive over so we can view movies, or do I tell him I will bring a movie disc to watch. Guess which I am willing to carry over?
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2 points Sir T. It appears that your main sticking point to VOD/Digital Delivery is its lack of 1080p/lossless audio. For YOUR setup/AV gear, DD/VOD may not be the best choice, but most casual users don't have your setup. 720p, 5.1 should suffice for most "average" users.
Its not really fair to say that its not going to be successful until it is a standard 1080p/lossless. After all, DVD isn't even that quality, and its doing just fine.
2nd point. Although you point about bringing a disk versus a HD is "funny" its not really going to mean much in even a few months. Right now you can get 8 gig flash drives (USB key ring thingies), and thats enough to hold an uncompressed DVD w/audio.
Within a year, solid state HD technology will be 2X or 3X that capacity. More than enough for a HD movie with modest compression, and certainly not enough to be a problem to carry around. In this fashion, it doesn't seem improbable for consumers to d/l a movie and park it on a memory stick to take around.
Even your PS3 can read a memory stick. Pretty impressive for a game machine I might add...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Groundbeef
2 points Sir T. It appears that your main sticking point to VOD/Digital Delivery is its lack of 1080p/lossless audio. For YOUR setup/AV gear, DD/VOD may not be the best choice, but most casual users don't have your setup. 720p, 5.1 should suffice for most "average" users.
Beef, there are alot more people out there with high end theaters than you think. There are alot more people out there with good to very good equipment. You cannot expect them to go back to 720p after seeing 1080p images on large screens. If you are not trying to include them in your downloading theory, then downloads will not succeed. Innovation is always driven by early adopters. If you cannot get their attention(and VOD and downloading by all means has not) then you cannot expect it to succeed. Not alot of folks are going to buy a 360 just to get Live. Not many folks are going to pay the premium price for VOD and not be able to own it.
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Its not really fair to say that its not going to be successful until it is a standard 1080p/lossless. After all, DVD isn't even that quality, and its doing just fine.
The quality of DVD exceeds most downloads largely because the audio and video is not nearly as compressed as both in VOD and downloads. Both HD DVD and Bluray folks(which now exceed the VOD and downloading folks) have been looking at high quality 1080p images, and listening to PCM or DTHD for almost two years. You are going to have to reach at least that level if masses(both high end and low end folks) are going towards downloads and VOD.
Quote:
2nd point. Although you point about bringing a disk versus a HD is "funny" its not really going to mean much in even a few months. Right now you can get 8 gig flash drives (USB key ring thingies), and thats enough to hold an uncompressed DVD w/audio.
There is no such thing as uncompressed DVD. Everything pertaining to the DVD is compressed. Besides, uncompressed audio without video is pretty useless in a video format. If we now have disc that have almost 48 gigs of information(Pirates of the Carribean with extras) then its going to take alot of those sticks to make it happen. We are not there yet.
Quote:
Within a year, solid state HD technology will be 2X or 3X that capacity. More than enough for a HD movie with modest compression, and certainly not enough to be a problem to carry around. In this fashion, it doesn't seem improbable for consumers to d/l a movie and park it on a memory stick to take around.
So what if the flash drive gets corrupted. Not much use is it? What if because of DRM it cannot be played in but one place(that is going to be a reality) to prevent pirating. What kind of copy protection could it have? It will have to have copy protection or the studio are not going to touch it. Without content, what is the point?
The point I am trying to make to you is while all of these are still in developement, BR and HD DVD to a lesser extinct have grown to be a larger revenue base than download and VOD put together. Until everyone(studios and consumers) abandon disc altogether, do not expect the studio to support a new technology.
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Even your PS3 can read a memory stick. Pretty impressive for a game machine I might add...
If this is another one of your immature digs, I ain't biting. But remember what you said in the off topic section about how we discuss things. Do not dig if you don't want to start a war.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Beef, there are alot more people out there with high end theaters than you think. There are alot more people out there with good to very good equipment. You cannot expect them to go back to 720p after seeing 1080p images on large screens. If you are not trying to include them in your downloading theory, then downloads will not succeed. Innovation is always driven by early adopters. If you cannot get their attention(and VOD and downloading by all means has not) then you cannot expect it to succeed. Not alot of folks are going to buy a 360 just to get Live. Not many folks are going to pay the premium price for VOD and not be able to own it. .
I'm not discounting your theory, and I'm not underestimating the size of the market that ownes top shelf equipment. However, for every 10K home theater( or more) there are plenty of folks with a HDTV, HT in a box, and composite (red, white, yellow) connections.
Furthermore, I'm not going to spend $30 on a BR (or HD-DVD) for my kids. DD/VOD will be fine for them thank you very much.
As much as you take me to task for "ignoring" groups, you tend to give little credence to the general market, and instead focus on the top 5%. Unfortunatly, there is the other 95% that studios need to market to as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
The quality of DVD exceeds most downloads largely because the audio and video is not nearly as compressed as both in VOD and downloads. Both HD DVD and Bluray folks(which now exceed the VOD and downloading folks) have been looking at high quality 1080p images, and listening to PCM or DTHD for almost two years. You are going to have to reach at least that level if masses(both high end and low end folks) are going towards downloads and VOD. .
Again, your right with the top 5% of the market. But for casual users, I don't see it as a problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
There is no such thing as uncompressed DVD. Everything pertaining to the DVD is compressed. Besides, uncompressed audio without video is pretty useless in a video format. If we now have disc that have almost 48 gigs of information(Pirates of the Carribean with extras) then its going to take alot of those sticks to make it happen. We are not there yet. .
I mis-spoke. A standard DVD can be "copied" onto a D/L (dual layer) blank DVD with no "additional" compression. So it would seem to reason that a DVD could be copied onto a flash drive with little or no additional compression as well. Thats what a I meant. Sorry for the confusion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
So what if the flash drive gets corrupted. Not much use is it? What if because of DRM it cannot be played in but one place(that is going to be a reality) to prevent pirating. What kind of copy protection could it have? It will have to have copy protection or the studio are not going to touch it. Without content, what is the point? .
To your point, what if the physical media gets ruined? If you kid scratches the Nemo BR, your out $30. If I corrupt my flash drive, I re-copy it to something else. Thats actually a counterpoint for owning physical copies.
This is a little off topic, but I feel that copy protection is going to actually end studio sales sooner than later. Consumers are only going to put up with so much/many hoops to jump through. Pretty soon, its going to be as irritating as Toyota only allowing Prius Cars to be run in the carpool lanes. Go into general traffic and a GPS device will shut down the engine.
If I buy a copy of a movie (disk or otherwise) legally, I should be able to take it where I damn well please. If I want to make copies of my LEGALLY purchased DVD's so my kids don't ruin the master copy, I should be able to do it. Digital CRM is gone awry IMHO.
I'm not sure how to balance it, but it seems that every "innovation" is becoming more and more anti-consumer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
The point I am trying to make to you is while all of these are still in developement, BR and HD DVD to a lesser extinct have grown to be a larger revenue base than download and VOD put together. Until everyone(studios and consumers) abandon disc altogether, do not expect the studio to support a new technology. .
I think it has more to do with convience rather than media. With BR/HD-DVD you buy a player, plop in a movie and watch. With VOD/DD you need a computer, or another device to d//l the product, and then watch it. If MS, or Dell, or Apple can actually get a device that is fairly inexpensive into the living room, I think things would be changing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
If this is another one of your immature digs, I ain't biting. But remember what you said in the off topic section about how we discuss things. Do not dig if you don't want to start a war.
I'm just seein' if your readin'!
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Here we go again....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
There is one thing you just do not get, the American public is not ready for downloads to replace disc. ...As far as I can see nobody is ready to trust their movie collection on a hard drive that can be corrupted and hacked, potentially ruining their library.
So you speak for the whole American public? LOL. It's absolute nonsense, and you know it. If the American public is willing to trust their whole music collection to disk, then there's no reason to believe they won't trust their movie collections to the same medium. I think the success of iTunes is a perfect example of how wrong your expectations are. You're wrong, and while I can't demonstrate it now, it will become apparent as downloading technology and marketshare increases. Come back here in a year and we'll see how silly your understanding of the American public is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
The only thing downloads will effect is renting, and that is basically it.
With regard to renting, you're attempting to dismiss the importance of it by slyly wedging it into the topic of downloading & owning - entirely unrelated. Yes, I had to cut and paste that sentence out separately from your quote, because as usual you're trying to confuse the argument. Renting is a huge part of this equation. What you don't seem to understand is that downloading is a cultural shift for people. The more they do it, either through Netflix, Amazon, iMovie, or Tivo, it creates an expectation that this is how movies, and even TV shows, are seen.
Netflix, and later Blockbuster revolutionized the renting industry by fundamentally changing two very important facets of renting: staying at home and vastly increasing choice. If you can understand nothing else, you can't possibly tell me that you can't see that downloading expands those conveniences further - not only is the choice expanded exponentially because from one screen the user has far more vendors to choose from, but the technology has advanced to allow the convenience of doing it all from their TV screens, not their slow-to-start and buggy computer in another room.
Now I know that flies in the face of our very real desire to physically touch & own the disks, but the cultural shift is much farther along than you are willing to admit. Yes, there is a psychological shift that has been under way for years. And as an owner of a huge record, CD, and DVD collection, I'll be the first to lament this trend, but I'm smart enough to see the writing on the wall, too. Yes, it's lower quality in a download, but the convenience far outweighs that shortcoming (more on that below).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
VOD, PPV has been around for ten years in my neighborhood. In ten years it has blossomed into a $200 million dollar a year business (downloads and VOD combined). In that same period of time the DVD was introduced, and has grown to a $42 billion a year business.
So? just because DVD took off faster, it's no guaranty of BR's potential rise to replace it - the two trends could very well be mutually exclusive, especially if you consider that there was not real movie-downloading option back when DVDs took off. As I've said repeatedly, there are simply too many differences in the movie and related industries between then and now to make that comparison stick. What happened in the past is no guarantee of the future.
Did you also know that DVD sales were down in 2007 for the first time in the history of the format? And don't even try and tell us this is solely because of the strength of Blu-Ray sales, which accounted for a mere 3% of the total movie market. No, the reason it was down is because people are finding other ways to get their entertainment. And while download sales may have trailed behind BR sales, as you asserted elsewhere, total downloads could not possibly have. What else would make up the difference?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Our internet is not ready for mass downloading
Who's saying they have to be mass downloads? What we see now is a gradual, slow but steady growth. This assumption about the Internet is nonsense and shows how little you understand it. People are downloading more video now than they ever were. It may not be HD, and it may not just be movies, but they are downloading. The people experiencing the cultural shift I described above is also quite comfortable waiting for the movie to download. Take Tivo for example, people are perfectly comfortable letting that sucker churn 2-3 hours in the middle of the night to download their movies and shows. The reason is because people also become used to waiting to record the shows that will air later in the week. Waiting for video content is a fact of Internet and cable life that the public is just fine with.
Yes, it may be faster to run to the local blockbuster or best buy and pick up a disk, but then there's always the possibility it will be out, it will not in their chosen format, or it will be hard to find on the shelf. More importantly, instead of picking one or two movies or shows, the public can now select dozens at a time. Yes, they'll have to wait, but it's not like they can watch them at the same time anyhow. While they wait they can watch stuff they have already downloaded.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
... and the studios are not going to support downloading over disc, they have already stated this.
Really, they've stated this? OK, my little insider imp, who stated this? How long ago did they say this? I seriously doubt they are singing that tune now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
The vote againist HD DVD by Warner is widely seen as a rejection of Microsoft vision of movie distribution.
Whoa there, little cavalier, slow down that pony, there. How exactly is the "vote againist HD-DVD" by Warner seen as a rejection of Microsoft's vision? Being as little as you are, I wonder how widely you can see that one. Despite Microsoft's encryption being shipped on every HD DVD disks, the company has been just as interested in pushing downloadable distribution. They wisely saw that HD-DVD was a way to get their product out into the market, now they can push it into the online distribution channel, too. And even if it was a rejection of Microsoft's vision (and I certainly don't hear any studios saying that publicly), that's still not a rejection of downloadable content. I haven't heard any studios complaining about Amazon or NetFlix. No the fact is the studios are very well aware that this is a new market they need to be part of, hence the reason they embrace it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Bluray won this, and you need to face it. I told you it was going to happen, but you insisted that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price. It didn't help then, its not going to help now.
No, lil't, you're lying about what I said. I did not "insist that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price." Price would be a factor, I certainly agree with that, but that was not the only thing I said (go back and read the posts). I suggested in several threads that there were things that Toshiba, Microsoft and the HD-DVD studios could do to help the format. I proposed scenarios that could very well have altered BR's fortunes in this war. But I never said, emphatically and arrogantly like you have, that the outcome was certain. Don't say I did, because that is a bold-faced lie. I only suggested alternate endings to this war.
But more importantly I also suggested that both HD-DVD and BR would be marginalized by downloadable content. And that is precisely what I am suggesting is already happening now. So now, you want us to believe that because BR beat HD-DVD, it will do the same to downloadable content? Sorry, but I don't buy that. You're underestimating how much this format war has hurt BR and given downloadable content real teeth it might not have had without the format war.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Paramount is going neutral(it is going to happen for sure), and Universal will be the last to hold out(countering my earlier prediction because of new events)
Wouldn't it be another kick in the pants for you if they would hold on to the bitter end and start pushing downloadable content as a way to make us the loss in revenue? If they did, they would at least not alienate their loyal HD-DVD customers and be seen as the good guys in this sordid affair. I'm not saying that this will happen, but I would love to see you eat that crow.
And as far as Toshiba having, lost? I'm not there yet either. The HD-DVD players already have ethernet, so what if the next player they produce has a hard drive in it? Being a manufacturer of computers, that would certainly not be a stretch. They are at the forefront of laptop research, so what if this hard drive was solid state? Now you're talking 2-3 time the access speed of disk-based drives. Throw in a digital tuner and that next generation HD-DVD player becomes a really interesting piece of gear. All the technology has already been developped, it's just a matter of putting it together in one box. I'm not saying this is what they'll do, but just think of the potential. At $2-300 each, that's one hell of a product.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
You have not been paying much attention to CES as of the last four years have. Downloading has been pushed every year in that period. Same interest generated, and still the public is not ready to buy it.
Same interest generated? Hardly. There's been a market increase this year. Anyhow, people are buying now. Let's pick this up in a year, when we have some real Tivo, Amazon, NetFlix, and iMove sales figures. I don't know what hardware sales were for this past holiday season, but I'm going to guess that they were pretty brisk. Tivo is riding the analog shut-off scare pretty hard in their sales pitch and is really the best option for the millions of homes with analog TVs - if the government rebate applies to their box, that will be a huge boost for them this year. Once it's in people's homes, it's just a few clicks of the remote to start downloading over the internet. As a matter of fact, it's by far the simplest and easiest interface I've seen to do this.
Oh, and yes, I actually have been paying very close attention to CES.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
So you can just give your internet sales job a rest.
Well, not to burst your bubble, but in this down-economy of layoffs and retail downturns, my job and jobs like mine have been booming. I bet there aren't many other industries that are paying their employees bonuses this year, are there? I think my industry is benefiting tremendously from the convergence of video and the internet. Maybe your negative view of us is envy and jealousy due to the downturn in your little world?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Opinion pieces from a computer pundit is hardly a basis for fact. Especially since we are talking video, not computers.
Well as the Internet and video continue to converge like they have for the the past five years, we'll see who's right won't we, my little Luddite? Keep waiving that little feather for BR, if you must. And just so we're clear, I'm not saying BR is going to be blown away by downloads, I'm saying it will be marginalized as an option for movie ownership that will represent just a fraction of the movie market as the rest of it moves online. Yes, you can quote me on that.
You know, I stopped with the last thread because it was so full on falsehoods, FUD, and outright lies that I didn't want to burden everyone with your pointless pontifications about your supposed superiority. And if you're going to bring up that old nonsense about me being a liar, then maybe you should read what I wrote again. I have not lied on this board, so please give it a rest. But it just seems that no matter where you troll, you seem to piss off everyone with your condescending tone - as soon as you join in the discussion the whole thread turns to one tense and unpleasant quagmire. I've received dozens of private messages from people who think of you as a pompous bore, and while they try to tell you this as tactfully as possible in just about every post, you just don't seem to get it. If all you're going to do is turn every thread into a miserable debate about yourself, then just don't. I may not be that tactful, but I'll repeat what I said before, how many times do I have to flush before you go away?
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Here's an article that ties in recession and gas prices to Warner's decision. However, the interesting thing is the note that Bluray may be the last physical medium for video as internet and technology companies "race" to build online distribution channels. Its coming whether the studios like it or not. And I'm still amazed that the studios have become so financially dependent on vhs, dvd, etc. sales. How did they survive during the days of Gone with the Wind, The Wizard of Oz, Casablanca, etc.?
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759...069TX1K0001121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dean_martin
Here's an article that ties in recession and gas prices to Warner's decision. However, the interesting thing is the note that Bluray may be the last physical medium for video as internet and technology companies "race" to build online distribution channels. Its coming whether the studios like it or not. And I'm still amazed that the studios have become so financially dependent on vhs, dvd, etc. sales. How did they survive during the days of Gone with the Wind, The Wizard of Oz, Casablanca, etc.?
]
It was a totally different market. If you wanted to see a movie, you went to the MOVIE THEATER. There was not a choice. No TV, no VHS, no DVD.
Studios also only released a few films versus the volume today. Most movie houses only showed a film or 2 at a time. Multiplexes were not even a thought.
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I'm sorry, but I may be nieve in saying this. But I don't think the majority of the public is going to want to down load a movie onto a hard drive from the net and then plug it into a TV when you can go to blockbuster and rent a DVD and put it in a cheap DVD player. Most of the public doesnt have high end equipment. Just look at the junk that walmart, target and Kmart sell. And many households have 2-4 TV's and more than 1 DVDP so you can play the DVD in any room. And many people I know have obsolete computers that are just used for school work or browsing the web. Thats why the computer game industry is dying slowly because there are not enough people who have high end computers such as myself that can play the latest games on the highest graphics settings. Thats where PS3 and Xbox come ino play.
And what about people that like to buy movies and have hundreds of moives in their collection. Are they going to have to buy multiple expensive terrabyte hard drives when they can just buy a DVD, I dont think so. Of course, I could be all wrong!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackraven
I'm sorry, but I may be nieve in saying this. But I don't think the majority of the public is going to want to down load a movie onto a hard drive from the net and then plug it into a TV when you can go to blockbuster and rent a DVD and put it in a cheap DVD player. Most of the public doesnt have high end equipment. Just look at the junk that walmart, target and Kmart sell. And many households have 2-4 TV's and more than 1 DVDP so you can play the DVD in any room. And many people I know have obsolete computers that are just used for school work or browsing the web. Thats why the computer game industry is dying slowly because there are not enough people who have high end computers such as myself that can play the latest games on the highest graphics settings. Thats where PS3 and Xbox come ino play.
And what about people that like to buy movies and have hundreds of moives in their collection. Are they going to have to buy multiple expensive terrabyte hard drives when they can just buy a DVD, I dont think so. Of course, I could be all wrong!
You are.
All thats required for vod on my cable system is a DVR , and something to watch it on.
Its easier to use than a DVD player, and you need it anyway to watch just about anything.
THE CES is all abuzz about downloading movies, Apple has plans for Itunes to offer movies.
The quality is quite good, even if it doesnt match sir t 's cavier wishes and champaing
dreams.
As a matter of fact quite a few companies have gone broke trying to sell quality to the american people, been there, seen that.
I am the only person I know that had a super vhs, or a laserdisc.
My first set was a 20in XbR (the 26 was 1200 bucks) and most thought I was crazy for paying 800 bucks for a "small" tv(about 2400 in todays dollars).
Anybody with Comcasts ondemand service should check it out, its quite good really.
As for taking a hard drive over to watch movies on, well I have a 320 gig usb drive,
more and more sets have USB, and sharing tunes is already commonplace.
And a hard drive might not be reconizable, what do you think an Ipod is?
Or a zune?
The last two optical formats are from an age when the only way to store large amounts
of data were with optical drives, BUT THAT IS QUICKLY BEING SUPPLANTED
by a universe of high speed data over the web, and hard drive and solid state storage
that holds massive amounts of data.
On my first computer upgrading my 4 mgs of ram cost 165 bucks for another 4 mgs.
The HD was 265 mb , and a friend cussed me because I HAD ONE SO BIG.
Compare that to today.
the transformation of mass media to data is slow coming, but it is coming.
If HD or BLU hope to become a "mass" format they need to quit this silly format war
(its not over yet) and concentrate on getting established.
Do you really need a collection when you can crank up a computer and see any movie ever made? THINK ABOUT IT:1:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pixelthis
You are.
All thats required for vod on my cable system is a DVR , and something to watch it on.
Its easier to use than a DVD player, and you need it anyway to watch just about anything.
THE CES is all abuzz about downloading movies, Apple has plans for Itunes to offer movies.
The quality is quite good, even if it doesnt match sir t 's cavier wishes and champaing
dreams.
As a matter of fact quite a few companies have gone broke trying to sell quality to the american people, been there, seen that.
I am the only person I know that had a super vhs, or a laserdisc.
My first set was a 20in XbR (the 26 was 1200 bucks) and most thought I was crazy for paying 800 bucks for a "small" tv(about 2400 in todays dollars).
Anybody with Comcasts ondemand service should check it out, its quite good really.
As for taking a hard drive over to watch movies on, well I have a 320 gig usb drive,
more and more sets have USB, and sharing tunes is already commonplace.
And a hard drive might not be reconizable, what do you think an Ipod is?
Or a zune?
The last two optical formats are from an age when the only way to store large amounts
of data were with optical drives, BUT THAT IS QUICKLY BEING SUPPLANTED
by a universe of high speed data over the web, and hard drive and solid state storage
that holds massive amounts of data.
On my first computer upgrading my 4 mgs of ram cost 165 bucks for another 4 mgs.
The HD was 265 mb , and a friend cussed me because I HAD ONE SO BIG.
Compare that to today.
the transformation of mass media to data is slow coming, but it is coming.
If HD or BLU hope to become a "mass" format they need to quit this silly format war
(its not over yet) and concentrate on getting established.
Do you really need a collection when you can crank up a computer and see any movie ever made? THINK ABOUT IT:1:
:Yawn: ................... :sleep:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackraven
I'm sorry, but I may be nieve in saying this. But I don't think the majority of the public is going to want to down load a movie onto a hard drive from the net and then plug it into a TV when you can go to blockbuster and rent a DVD and put it in a cheap DVD player. Most of the public doesnt have high end equipment.
You don't need highend equipement for video downloads and when the technology catches up, it will be easier than driving to BB to pick up a movie. You will download and play the movie on the TV of your choice. Very simple. Also more "green" since you will save on gas and not clog the atmosphere :ihih: . There you go greenies!
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackraven
And what about people that like to buy movies and have hundreds of moives in their collection. Are they going to have to buy multiple expensive terrabyte hard drives when they can just buy a DVD, I dont think so. Of course, I could be all wrong!
Yes they will. Memory is cheap now and will be even cheaper in years to come. Downloads will probably be cheaper than a Blueray DVD or standard DVD so you will offset the price of memory quickly.
Another huge misconception is that people won't trust storing movie on their hardrives. This is just wrong and I will bring up the digitial photography example again. People have had no problem giving up film. The average joe consumer is not like the consumers who frequent this and other boards. People who are concerned about ultimate quality and having high end systems are the minority. To think the general public thinks like people on this board is just naive.
Movie downloads will be the future. There is no getting around that. It will take some time but it will be the standard one day. Not today and not next year or even the next few years but it will take over. Technology will advance, it's just a matter of time.
The bottom line is that BR/HDDVD need to get things straightened out now, not tomorrow. They have limited future and they need to take full advantage while they can.
JSE
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich-n-Texas
Cable TV blows man!
That sounds like a really bad tagline in a Porno Blog.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSE
You don't need highend equipement for video downloads and when the technology catches up, it will be easier than driving to BB to pick up a movie. You will download and play the movie on the TV of your choice. Very simple. Also more "green" since you will save on gas and not clog the atmosphere :ihih: . There you go greenies!
Yes they will. Memory is cheap now and will be even cheaper in years to come. Downloads will probably be cheaper than a Blueray DVD or standard DVD so you will offset the price of memory quickly.
Another huge misconception is that people won't trust storing movie on their hardrives. This is just wrong and I will bring up the digitial photography example again. People have had no problem giving up film. The average joe consumer is not like the consumers who frequent this and other boards. People who are concerned about ultimate quality and having high end systems are the minority. To think the general public thinks like people on this board is just naive.
Movie downloads will be the future. There is no getting around that. It will take some time but it will be the standard one day. Not today and not next year or even the next few years but it will take over. Technology will advance, it's just a matter of time.
The bottom line is that BR/HDDVD need to get things straightened out now, not tomorrow. They have limited future and they need to take full advantage while they can.
JSE
Nice post.
I agree. Downloading will take over someday. But it's not up to snuff at this point.
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I'll see about renting a movie from my FIOS VOD service this weekend and report back on it's HD PQ.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSE
You don't need highend equipement for video downloads and when the technology catches up, it will be easier than driving to BB to pick up a movie. You will download and play the movie on the TV of your choice. Very simple. Also more "green" since you will save on gas and not clog the atmosphere :ihih: . There you go greenies!
How do you see netflicks in this. Their service does not require you use gas, or clog the atmosphere. They deliver to your door, and you stick the DVD/Bluray back in the mailbox when finished. Plus you do not get a heavily compressed movie(complete with artifacts) and a low bitrate DD soundtrack. You get lightly compressed AVC or VC1 with lossless audio. You do not need a high end system to enjoy that, my buddy enjoys this on a quientet III with a 1080p plasma.
Quote:
Yes they will. Memory is cheap now and will be even cheaper in years to come. Downloads will probably be cheaper than a Blueray DVD or standard DVD so you will offset the price of memory quickly.
JSE, the studio are not going to undercut their prized revenue stream for downloads. The studio heads of the big 8 studio in Hollywood have already come out saying this publicly. The business model for downloads is not feasible at this time, and most do not believe it will be for years to come. Walmart and two other companies have already shut down their downloading service. The studios are not ready for the downloads, at that is buttress by the fact you do not see more movies for downloading than you currently see on bluray.
Quote:
Another huge misconception is that people won't trust storing movie on their hardrives. This is just wrong and I will bring up the digitial photography example again. People have had no problem giving up film. The average joe consumer is not like the consumers who frequent this and other boards. People who are concerned about ultimate quality and having high end systems are the minority. To think the general public thinks like people on this board is just naive.
JSE, you are wrong on this one bro. Digital photography is just pictures, it is not a movie that one has invested in. Film was a pain in the bottom. You had to pay for it in the first place, pay for developement, and wait for it to come back. That is not how purchasing a movie is. It is rather easy and brainless to pick digital photography over film. People shop at BB and impulsively buy movies, or they go to Amazon and point and click, and it is delivered to your door. This is not quite the same as downloading a movie, and being forced to watch it before your 24hour window is up. You cannot take a digital download to your friends house, and you have to maintain a backup as well. Joesixpack is not ready for this complexity, they just want to pop the disc and press play.
Quote:
Movie downloads will be the future. There is no getting around that. It will take some time but it will be the standard one day. Not today and not next year or even the next few years but it will take over. Technology will advance, it's just a matter of time.
The only model that VOD and downloads will take over from is renting. Everyone knows this. Your ardent collector of movies will stick with the disc. I base this on the fact that VOD(or PPV as you will) has been around for a decade and has managed to only grow to a $200 million dollar revenue stream. It has been stuck at around that point since 2003. In that same decade the DVD was born(everyone thought VOD will kill the DVD) and grew to a $42 billion dollar business. While VOD and downloads have been stuck at $200 million dollars, in the last couple of years bluray and HD DVD have grown to a 4 billion dollar market and growing faster than DVD did at the same time in its history.
Quote:
The bottom line is that BR/HDDVD need to get things straightened out now, not tomorrow. They have limited future and they need to take full advantage while they can.
JSE
We both absolutely agree on this. However I think the Bluray exclusive studio have decided to just leave Universal behind since they are really the only hold outs at this point. Paramount will be on board within the next few months.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMichael
Any idea who was buying them? Someone must have been buying them for Sony to bother making them that long.
Betamax was used in professional circles, for editing, archiving, and digital audio (some of the earliest PCM digital recorders recorded onto Betamax tapes). Plus, ED Beta (which originally came out in the late-80s alongside S-VHS) remained the highest quality home video archiving format available to consumers until D-VHS came onto the market in 1998.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
How do you see netflicks in this. Their service does not require you use gas, or clog the atmosphere. They deliver to your door, and you stick the DVD/Bluray back in the mailbox when finished. Plus you do not get a heavily compressed movie(complete with artifacts) and a low bitrate DD soundtrack. You get lightly compressed AVC or VC1 with lossless audio. You do not need a high end system to enjoy that, my buddy enjoys this on a quientet III with a 1080p plasma.
JSE, the studio are not going to undercut their prized revenue stream for downloads. The studio heads of the big 8 studio in Hollywood have already come out saying this publicly. The business model for downloads is not feasible at this time, and most do not believe it will be for years to come. Walmart and two other companies have already shut down their downloading service. The studios are not ready for the downloads, at that is buttress by the fact you do not see more movies for downloading than you currently see on bluray.
The only model that VOD and downloads will take over from is renting. Everyone knows this. Your ardent collector of movies will stick with the disc. I base this on the fact that VOD(or PPV as you will) has been around for a decade and has managed to only grow to a $200 million dollar revenue stream. It has been stuck at around that point since 2003. In that same decade the DVD was born(everyone thought VOD will kill the DVD) and grew to a $42 billion dollar business. While VOD and downloads have been stuck at $200 million dollars, in the last couple of years bluray and HD DVD have grown to a 4 billion dollar market and growing faster than DVD did at the same time in its history.
We both absolutely agree on this. However I think the Bluray exclusive studio have decided to just leave Universal behind since they are really the only hold outs at this point. Paramount will be on board within the next few months.
T, I can agree with you almost 100% on all of the above except for the photography issue in terms of the world "Today". But, I am not talking about "Today". I am talking about the world "tomorrow", in 5 to 7 years-ish. All the industry dynamics and consumer dynamics you refer to above will change and change drastically. Think back 10 years ago about the technology we had. Now think of today. We have come a tremendous distance and the speed of technological advancement is speeding up everyday with each new advance.
Now for the photography reference,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
JSE, you are wrong on this one bro. Digital photography is just pictures, it is not a movie that one has invested in.
Just Pictures? This is not true. How is a photo any different than a movie in terms of value? I can replace a movie but there is no way I can replace an image. Myself and many others feel we have a huge investment in our images. I make "some" money off mine, other make their living off of them. Others simply have family photos that are very dear to them. These are investments.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
Film was a pain in the bottom. You had to pay for it in the first place, pay for developement, and wait for it to come back. That is not how purchasing a movie is. It is rather easy and brainless to pick digital photography over film.
I guess your not that into photography. For pros, avid and casual photographers, digital has not always made it easier. Film was much easier and less time consuming. Much less expensive equipment and software were/are needed with film. With film, you take the photos, dropped off the film and have it processed in about an hour. It can take me days to go through a couple of rolls of film and to get the final images I want with digital. Trust me, there are a lot of tradeoffs with digital. I find myself sitting in front of the computer much, much more now.
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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
People shop at BB and impulsively buy movies, or they go to Amazon and point and click, and it is delivered to your door. This is not quite the same as downloading a movie, and being forced to watch it before your 24hour window is up. You cannot take a digital download to your friends house, and you have to maintain a backup as well. Joesixpack is not ready for this complexity, they just want to pop the disc and press play.
Again, your pretty much correct in "Today's" world. I am speaking of "Tomorrow's" world. Things will change. You will be able to copy of movie to a small memory card or USB keychain type drive and plug it into your friend's receiver/TV/Hub or whatever. Very easy and really not very different that carrying over a DVD. But again, tomorrow. Not today.
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Originally Posted by Sir Terrence the Terrible
However I think the Bluray exclusive studio have decided to just leave Universal behind since they are really the only hold outs at this point. Paramount will be on board within the next few months.
Universal doesn't have to go completely Blu.....neutral is fine with me :)
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So long as movie downloads remain locked down by DRM, and view/time limitations, they will remain nothing more than an extension of the existing PPV and VOD markets. I used to think that Blu-ray/HD-DVD had only a few years before their market would dry up, and HD downloads would take over.
But, the schemes unveiled to date (e.g., Xbox Live, and the new Apple TV HD movie downloads) are tepid efforts at best, and do absolutely nothing to actually grow the market. Apple's newly unveiled movie download rental program is promising in that you can move the file between any devices logged onto your iTunes account (a little more transportable than other downloading schemes that lock the file onto one device). But, these rentals only give you a 24 hour window to watch a movie before the file locks up.
While this might cost Blockbuster and Netflix some customers, I doubt that this will shift the habits of people who currently buy DVDs. Until the studios take the locks off and allow customers to download movie files with minimal restriction and usage limits, I think the download market will simply displace existing rental, PPV, and POV avenues, rather than take significant market share away from disc media.
Downloads won't be attractive to consumers until these limits are removed, and removing these limits won't be a good option for the studios until it can be demonstrated that downloads that people "own" create more revenue than they currently get from discs.
The home video industry used to depend on a rental pricing structure on VHS tapes, where new movie releases would carry list prices ranging from $80 to $120 for a period of a few months before getting repriced closer to $20 for retail sell-through. The time period during which this rental pricing was in effect, those titles were not available for PPV, VOD, or any other home video channel.
The DVD turned the industry inside out by creating demand for retail sell-through at the time of release. The studios quickly found that they could make a lot more money by selling DVDs at list prices of $30 (for new releases) and $20 (for library titles) than they could by keeping that rental pricing structure intact. Right now, the majority of the home video market is retail sell-through, and this is the studios' biggest revenue stream. This is why PPV and VOD don't get those titles until they've been out on DVD for a while.
Even with DRM-free downloads that allow for unlimited viewing, there's still the issue of bandwidth. One analyst called this the "Target" question -- does it take less time to download a movie file than picking up a DVD at the local Target store? Right now, for the majority of households, the answer remains no. While we should expect that broadband speeds will continue to improve, if consumers transition over to HD resolution in a big way, then it will take even longer to download HD files and for broadband speeds to make it feasible for impulse purchase.
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Originally Posted by Woochifer
The time period during which this rental pricing was in effect, those titles were not available for PPV, VOD, or any other home video channel.
This is why PPV and VOD don't get those titles until they've been out on DVD for a while.
Even with DRM-free downloads that allow for unlimited viewing, there's still the issue of bandwidth. One analyst called this the "Target" question -- does it take less time to download a movie file than picking up a DVD at the local Target store? Right now, for the majority of households, the answer remains no. While we should expect that broadband speeds will continue to improve, if consumers transition over to HD resolution in a big way, then it will take even longer to download HD files and for broadband speeds to make it feasible for impulse purchase.
Not to interupt this little discussion, but I wanted to point out something.
I don't know where XBOX Live fits into the equation, but it gets new movies the same day as DVD releases. I have rented "We Are Marshall" in HD the same day it was released on DVD. Thats the first one to come to mind. There have been others as well. I'll have to check into other titles if you want, but I'd rather not do the work :)
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Any one ever have a hard drive die. I've had 2. Thats why I keep paper copies of all important documents or photo's. Wait until someone has a collection of movies on a hard drive that die's. Your also assuming that every one will be able to afford mega hard drives and all the associated equipment. I have no doubt that downloading will be the mode of choice for movies, but I don't think that DVD will ever die until Hard drives, memory and computer drop down in price to the level of a $30 DVD player. You are forgetting about all the tens of millions of people at or below the poverty line that will not be able to afford the new equipment that you will need for downloading and storage on a terrabyte hard drive.
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Originally Posted by nightflier
So you speak for the whole American public? LOL. It's absolute nonsense, and you know it. If the American public is willing to trust their whole music collection to disk, then there's no reason to believe they won't trust their movie collections to the same medium. I think the success of iTunes is a perfect example of how wrong your expectations are. You're wrong, and while I can't demonstrate it now, it will become apparent as downloading technology and marketshare increases. Come back here in a year and we'll see how silly your understanding of the American public is.
Glad your back, I was bored. The American public speaks with their dollars. Music is different than movies. What works for music does not work for movies. Walmart, Google, and movie gallery have all shut down in 2007. Revenue is flat, and the studios are focusing on growing HDM on disc not movie downloads. Can you explain how Bluray/HD DVD even during a war has grown larger than VOD and downloading put together in terms of revuenue? That is because people want the disc, not a DRM infested low quality download. I do not have to speak for the American public, they speak through their money, and it ain't headed towards downloading whether we are speaking of VOD or XBOX live. How wrong was I about bluray? It turns out not one of your scenarios played out, and yet you are still calling me wrong. You said wait till next year about HD DVD and bluray. It didn't even take that long to play out, just like I stated.
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With regard to renting, you're attempting to dismiss the importance of it by slyly wedging it into the topic of downloading & owning - entirely unrelated. Yes, I had to cut and paste that sentence out separately from your quote, because as usual you're trying to confuse the argument. Renting is a huge part of this equation. What you don't seem to understand is that downloading is a cultural shift for people. The more they do it, either through Netflix, Amazon, iMovie, or Tivo, it creates an expectation that this is how movies, and even TV shows, are seen.
Renting has not been a huge part of the equation since the studio shifted to a sell through market years ago. Every since they have gone to sell through, rental incomes means less and less to the studios bottom line, and sales of disc are basically funding film projects.
Amazon sells FAR more disc than downloads, FAR MORE.
Netflix rents more disc than downloads as well
There are way more titles on disc than Imovie.
What you don't seem to get is downloading movies is not a growing market, is not economically feasible at this time, and not where analyst see the consumers spending their money. Analyst who follow the movie industry(as opposed to someone who does not seem to know anything about it, and couldn't get his last prediction right) believe that Bluray will be where the consumer puts their money now that the war is pretty much settled. The trend is already there(as evidenced by the fact that bluray alone is already a larger market than both VOD and downloading combined), and whatever cultural shift you predict will happen has not even learned to walk yet.
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Netflix, and later Blockbuster revolutionized the renting industry by fundamentally changing two very important facets of renting: staying at home and vastly increasing choice. If you can understand nothing else, you can't possibly tell me that you can't see that downloading expands those conveniences further - not only is the choice expanded exponentially because from one screen the user has far more vendors to choose from, but the technology has advanced to allow the convenience of doing it all from their TV screens, not their slow-to-start and buggy computer in another room.
You are talking about a market that has lost its influence a long time ago. Renting is not what the studio are emphasizing. They are working on growning the largest revenue source for them. It isn't renting, it isn't VOD and it isn't downloading, its HD on disc sale through. VOD and downloading isn't even on the radar with them. Why hasn't VOD taken off? You cannot own it, it has term limits, you have to pay everytime you want to see it, and you cannot burn it to disc unless its nothing more than a TV program. Both VOD and downloading are stagnant while disc sales are growing like crazy. VOD nor downloading have even scratch DVD sales, and with flat revenue, its doesn't look like its touching bluray either. People who collect movies will not go to downloads, that is the bottom line. Evidence is everywhere that proves this. It isn't even apparent that the rental market has been negatively impacted as Blockbuster and Netflicks still send far more disc out than downloads that have occured.
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Now I know that flies in the face of our very real desire to physically touch & own the disks, but the cultural shift is much farther along than you are willing to admit. Yes, there is a psychological shift that has been under way for years. And as an owner of a huge record, CD, and DVD collection, I'll be the first to lament this trend, but I'm smart enough to see the writing on the wall, too. Yes, it's lower quality in a download, but the convenience far outweighs that shortcoming (more on that below).
I know this is difficult for you to understand, but early technology adopters push cultural shifts, and their support trickles down to everyone else. It happen with the VCR, Laserdisc, DVD, and now HD DVD and Bluray. With the exception of Laserdisc, all of these formats grew to be huge revenue sources for both manufacturers and the Studios themselves. Neither VOD nor downloading has taken off(its been a decade now) because largely these early adopters are not interested in the product. Neither VOD or downloading is growing, so how is it farther along than I am willing to admit. I can see the numbers very clearly, and they have pointed to stagnation for the last three years.
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So? just because DVD took off faster, it's no guaranty of BR's potential rise to replace it - the two trends could very well be mutually exclusive, especially if you consider that there was not real movie-downloading option back when DVDs took off. As I've said repeatedly, there are simply too many differences in the movie and related industries between then and now to make that comparison stick. What happened in the past is no guarantee of the future.
This shows how much you know. BR is already farther along than DVD was at this time period. And once again you are incorrect. PPV came to the bay area in 1997, the same year that the DVD was introduced. It was heavily advertised and very visible. People didn't take to it then. In terms of the comparison, you are wrong. Wooch and I have pointed out that every gauge to measure growth that was there is here now. You have so little knowledge of the movie industry(which is so apparent in our last discussion) you do not even know how to evaluated anything that is related to it. Your assertion in our last discussion didn't even come close to playing out, not even close or in the ballpark of close. What you are attempting to do(AGAIN) is to cloud a clear issue with bull. You are bringing too many unrelated things into a clear arguement. Player sales have nothing to do with internet downloads. Disc sales have nothing to do with internet downloading. Apples to apples mean directly comparing DVD players sales at two years, with Bluray/HD DVD players sales at two years. There is no need to evaluate anything but these two comparisons. You do not bring the internet in this equation at all unless all you are trying to do is derail clarity. Camparing apples against apples shows that HD on disc is growning faster than the DVD did at two years both in player sales, and disc purchased. It is just that clear.
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Did you also know that DVD sales were down in 2007 for the first time in the history of the format? And don't even try and tell us this is solely because of the strength of Blu-Ray sales, which accounted for a mere 3% of the total movie market. No, the reason it was down is because people are finding other ways to get their entertainment. And while download sales may have trailed behind BR sales, as you asserted elsewhere, total downloads could not possibly have. What else would make up the difference?
I was the one that told you that DVD sales were down. And you attempts to tie downloading into that equation is not possible because downloading in terms of revenue is stagnant. If you read Warner reasons for going bluray exclusive, one of those reason was people were not buying DVD's because many see it as a format that has matured, and the format war was making everyone wait things out. In other words, they are waiting to see who will win to begin purchasing again. There is absolutely no indication that folks were looking elsewhere for their entertainment as you assert(and with of course no support for your assertion as usual). With revenues stagnant, they are not looking to downloads, and that is apparent. If downloading WAS the reason, you would see a correlation between the DVD decline, and a rise in income from movie downloads going to the studios. It ain't happen bro.
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Who's saying they have to be mass downloads? What we see now is a gradual, slow but steady growth.
There is no growth. At least no growth in revenue for the content providers. If you are speaking of free television programs, video off youtube and google, and other free services, you cannot compare that with DVD which is mainly a movie driven medium. Movies are not free. They cost on VOD, and through downloading services like Imovie and XBOX live. Free content is always free whether it is downloaded via Live, or through VOD. You cannot compare that with DVD because there is nothing free on a DVD.
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This assumption about the Internet is nonsense and shows how little you understand it. People are downloading more video now than they ever were. It may not be HD, and it may not just be movies, but they are downloading.
So? If it is not movies, then how do you think just downloading low quality video from youtube is going to effect a movie driven format like DVD and Bluray? Those two are about movies first, and television programs second. Snippets of video cannot compare with that.
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The people experiencing the cultural shift I described above is also quite comfortable waiting for the movie to download. Take Tivo for example, people are perfectly comfortable letting that sucker churn 2-3 hours in the middle of the night to download their movies and shows. The reason is because people also become used to waiting to record the shows that will air later in the week. Waiting for video content is a fact of Internet and cable life that the public is just fine with.
These people do not buy movies. They rent. Different market, different consumer, and different expectation of quality. You may be comfortable with this, but I do not know anyone who has chosen to wait 2-3 hours for something they can pop in a player and get in 30 seconds. Especially if they go through netflix to get the disc.
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Yes, it may be faster to run to the local blockbuster or best buy and pick up a disk, but then there's always the possibility it will be out, it will not in their chosen format, or it will be hard to find on the shelf. More importantly, instead of picking one or two movies or shows, the public can now select dozens at a time. Yes, they'll have to wait, but it's not like they can watch them at the same time anyhow. While they wait they can watch stuff they have already downloaded.
There is also the possibility that the studio don't even offer the movie on VOD or for downloading. That is a much larger chance than not finding it at their retailer. Question to you, have you ever heard of a title being offered for download day and date with the DVD? Not a chance, there is always a window for sale through FIRST, and rental and downloading second.
What if that dozen you choose won't all fit you your hard drive? Then you have to give up something you already saved and want to keep to accomodate new things. That does not happen with disc media.
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Really, they've stated this? OK, my little insider imp, who stated this? How long ago did they say this? I seriously doubt they are singing that tune now.
So you are already start the name calling. Okay stupid little uninformed wanna be no nothing, it was stated at CES(which is why Warner made the switch to end the stalemate). It was stated at IFA 2007, and only a stupid little azz like you would trade a $42 billion dollar market for a $200 million dollar one. That is why they run studios, and you get on the internet and make some of the stupidest claims I have ever read. If any studio thought digital distribution was ready for prime time, they would have jumped all over it. The market is too small(its smaller than Bluray), nobody amoung the studios believes its time to abandon disc for download. Did it ever occur to your pee brain that is why you can get more titles on disc than you can get on VOD and downloading? You think to small, and perhaps that is because of your reduced brain size.
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Whoa there, little cavalier, slow down that pony, there. How exactly is the "vote againist HD-DVD" by Warner seen as a rejection of Microsoft's vision? Being as little as you are, I wonder how widely you can see that one. Despite Microsoft's encryption being shipped on every HD DVD disks, the company has been just as interested in pushing downloadable distribution. They wisely saw that HD-DVD was a way to get their product out into the market, now they can push it into the online distribution channel, too. And even if it was a rejection of Microsoft's vision (and I certainly don't hear any studios saying that publicly), that's still not a rejection of downloadable content. I haven't heard any studios complaining about Amazon or NetFlix. No the fact is the studios are very well aware that this is a new market they need to be part of, hence the reason they embrace it.
Microsoft vision is to ditch the disc altogether and move to downloads using microsoft windows, XBOX live, and any device with Microsoft software running it. HDi, and VC-1 are both a part of that world. All HD DVD players and disc use HDi, and 98% of HD DVD movies are encoded with VC-1. Since the Bluray studios primarily use MPEG-2 or AVC, you now have 40% percent of movies that will not be using VC-1(and yes I heard that Warner will be releasing using AVC since they no longer have to port over titles to HD DVD). Paramount is currently in negotiations with the BDA, and word has it they are moving over to bluray as well. That means another studio NOT using HDi and VC-1. Universal will be the last to move(which they certainly will make before christmas season) and that will mean another studio not using VC-1. Everyone knows that Microsoft got behind HD DVD because A) they choose HDi and VC-1, and B) they wanted to split the market and keep the consumer as confused as possible so they would adopt neither format and move to downloads. The digitalbits and DVDfile have both reported this openly. By Warner choosing to move exclusive to one side(thereby giving that side 85% of the sales, and 70% of the titles) now bluray can move forward with their plan to replace the DVD, therby throwing a wrench in Microsofts confusion plans. Microsoft lost because now manufacturers have the confidence to manufacture bluray players(10 new manufacturers announced players at CES), computer manufacturers are not confident in putting bluray drives in their computers(all of the HD DVD drive makers other than Toshiba have switched their support), and there will be hardly any disc encoded with either HDi or VC-1, which means no revenue stream from royalites. If you understood the film industry half as much as you fake, even your pee size brain could logically think this through.
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No, lil't, you're lying about what I said. I did not "insist that HD DVD was going to pull this out because of the cheaper price." Price would be a factor, I certainly agree with that, but that was not the only thing I said (go back and read the posts). I suggested in several threads that there were things that Toshiba, Microsoft and the HD-DVD studios could do to help the format. I proposed scenarios that could very well have altered BR's fortunes in this war. But I never said, emphatically and arrogantly like you have, that the outcome was certain. Don't say I did, because that is a bold-faced lie. I only suggested alternate endings to this war.
Well price was not a factor, and the things you suggested that could help HD DVD were ludicrous because your knowledge of the industry is nil. Did you forget your little gem about the ship going down in the ocean full of bluray players increasing prices like porkbellies? I didn't say the outcome was certain, but I did state how it was going to play out, and so far, I was right. It doesn't really matter, all of your assertions on the subject were dead wrong, and the momentum is all bluray just like I said it would be.
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But more importantly I also suggested that both HD-DVD and BR would be marginalized by downloadable content. And that is precisely what I am suggesting is already happening now. So now, you want us to believe that because BR beat HD-DVD, it will do the same to downloadable content? Sorry, but I don't buy that. You're underestimating how much this format war has hurt BR and given downloadable content real teeth it might not have had without the format war.
Your track record on suggestions is not something I would take to the bank. If downloads were going to marginalize Bluray(we cannot even bring HD DVD into the equation) we would have already seen the erosion of DVD sales, and the increase in VOD and downloads of movies. We have not seen the latter, and the former is firmly traceable to the format war. People who buy disc are not interested in downloads of a lesser quality. The studio are already set to release more titles on disc than they are going to release to VOD, XBOXlive and Amazon. Every bluray exclusive studio as stated they are committed to growing the HD disc market, no such promise was made towards downloads. If you ran a studio, what would you pay attention to, your $42 billion market, or your $200 million dollar one? You would probably choose the latter, which is why you don't run a studio.
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Wouldn't it be another kick in the pants for you if they would hold on to the bitter end and start pushing downloadable content as a way to make us the loss in revenue? If they did, they would at least not alienate their loyal HD-DVD customers and be seen as the good guys in this sordid affair. I'm not saying that this will happen, but I would love to see you eat that crow.
You cannot make up a loss in revenue from a stagnant source. Well maybe in your convoluted world you can, but not in the real world. This is more of your stupid logic. How does a studio exclusive to HD DVD come out the good guys pushing downloads over disc based material when the HD DVD player does not store downloads but plays disc. How stupid is this??? That studio would be tarred and feathered if that happened.
Crow is not my speed, but after you last scenarios didn't even come close to playing out, you must be full of the stuff.
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And as far as Toshiba having, lost? I'm not there yet either. The HD-DVD players already have ethernet, so what if the next player they produce has a hard drive in it?
Because doing so would add cost to the players, alot more cost and complexity. With that extra cost comes a loss of a talking point. Our players are cheaper than bluray players. With the loss of studio and manufacturing support, HD DVD has nothing left. And really, the best selling HD DVD players are the A2 and A3. The XA-2 has not sold that well, and the A-35 is not doing that well either. So there is no demand for a higher priced players than we currently see now. Your suggestion is plain stupid.
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Being a manufacturer of computers, that would certainly not be a stretch. They are at the forefront of laptop research, so what if this hard drive was solid state? Now you're talking 2-3 time the access speed of disk-based drives. Throw in a digital tuner and that next generation HD-DVD player becomes a really interesting piece of gear. All the technology has already been developped, it's just a matter of putting it together in one box. I'm not saying this is what they'll do, but just think of the potential. At $2-300 each, that's one hell of a product.
More stupidity. Why sell a HD DVD player with no movies to support it? It is apparent that studio have already chosen bluray, and you have already lost $420 million dollars and counting. It would be more than stupid of them(but on par with you) for them to lose more money on something that already failed. A digital tuner, and compete with DVR's which would be cheaper? More stupidity. HD DVD is cooked, and only you would be retarded enough to try and revive something that took its last breath two weeks ago,
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Same interest generated? Hardly. There's been a market increase this year. Anyhow, people are buying now. Let's pick this up in a year, when we have some real Tivo, Amazon, NetFlix, and iMove sales figures. I don't know what hardware sales were for this past holiday season, but I'm going to guess that they were pretty brisk. Tivo is riding the analog shut-off scare pretty hard in their sales pitch and is really the best option for the millions of homes with analog TVs - if the government rebate applies to their box, that will be a huge boost for them this year. Once it's in people's homes, it's just a few clicks of the remote to start downloading over the internet. As a matter of fact, it's by far the simplest and easiest interface I've seen to do this.
Oh, and yes, I actually have been paying very close attention to CES.
Yeah right, because if you had, you would have clearly known they have been pushing the same stuff for years, repackaged and with a new message every year. None of it took off. This year you have several companies pushing it, with no business plan, no studio support, and no hardware to be seen. Oooooo big time push.
You are becoming the next year kid. Everything is just wait till next year, wait till next year. What do you think things just appear out of nowhere?. Things have to trend up, and with downloading of movies it is not. We are talking movies here, not music or anything else. According to NDP, movie downloading in terms of revenue is flat, and there is no trend upwards, and nothing to suggest so either. Even with all of those XBOX360 sold, XBOX live is flat as a pancake. In spite of the fact that cable companies are selling tons of HD packages(mostly for sports) VOD is flat as a floor. All analyst that follow the MOVIE industry say that the growth area within that industry is with disc sales of HD movies. They that they'll be strong growth from 2008-2011 at the least, and perhaps beyond.
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Well, not to burst your bubble, but in this down-economy of layoffs and retail downturns, my job and jobs like mine have been booming. I bet there aren't many other industries that are paying their employees bonuses this year, are there? I think my industry is benefiting tremendously from the convergence of video and the internet. Maybe your negative view of us is envy and jealousy due to the downturn in your little world?
So you really are going to advance this as an arguement? I got a rather large bonus this year, and so did many of the folks that I work with in this business. That does not mean anything. There is nothing about your pityful azz that would make me jealous. I have stated too many times in many posts, I do not care about you, your job, your mom or dad, or your third cousin on your mother side twice removed. I feel sorry for you, because you embarrased yourself time after time for 10 pages in another area on this very topic, and you were wrong as two left shoes on a one right foot man. My world has survive far more economic downturns than yours have. The movie making business did very well during the great depression, one of the few industries that did. The down turn was self inflicted, and has been remedied in one fail swoop. Thanks Warner.
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Well as the Internet and video continue to converge like they have for the the past five years, we'll see who's right won't we, my little Luddite? Keep waiving that little feather for BR, if you must. And just so we're clear, I'm not saying BR is going to be blown away by downloads, I'm saying it will be marginalized as an option for movie ownership that will represent just a fraction of the movie market as the rest of it moves online. Yes, you can quote me on that.
Yes, I will put that quote right next to the ship going down quote. Or the earthquake in japan quote also followed by the blurays are like porkbellies quote. This quote will be in good company.
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You know, I stopped with the last thread because it was so full on falsehoods, FUD, and outright lies that I didn't want to burden everyone with your pointless pontifications about your supposed superiority. And if you're going to bring up that old nonsense about me being a liar, then maybe you should read what I wrote again. I have not lied on this board, so please give it a rest. But it just seems that no matter where you troll, you seem to piss off everyone with your condescending tone - as soon as you join in the discussion the whole thread turns to one tense and unpleasant quagmire. I've received dozens of private messages from people who think of you as a pompous bore, and while they try to tell you this as tactfully as possible in just about every post, you just don't seem to get it. If all you're going to do is turn every thread into a miserable debate about yourself, then just don't. I may not be that tactful, but I'll repeat what I said before, how many times do I have to flush before you go away?
You lied, and I pointed it out. You lied, and now you are in denial about the lies you told. How about the lie that my video processor/switcher was a mass market product. You didn't lie about that? I do not know ANY product that costs close to $10k that can be labeled as mass market. And how does it become mass market when it has never been released to the market? Or how about the story about the friend at said high end audio company, which turned into the person who works for customer service(who never know shyte about future products released) to another source higher source within the company Which is it? I bet you cannot figure that one out today. That had more lies in it than brownies have nuts. Or what about the DVD player that has the option of playing either DSD native, or PCM, even though the player cannot pass DSD nor process it? What about I use room treatments to make up for channel imbalances? Either this is a lie to hide something else, or stupidity so profound that it scares the color out of your face.
Now if you want to take this issue to 10 pages, and look as stupid as you did before, we have a two page head start.
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Anybody watch the financial reports? If Apples download plans are so hot why did their stock drop after their show? Because of the lack of new product and enthusiasm for what they did show.
I don't see downloading of one form or the other taking over, at least in the near future. My habits are such I don't see it in my future at all. I have a fairly up to date computer and DSL, I still get the occasional sound drop out on streaming audio or listening to music samples. If this happens with just audio I can imagine what a piece of crap a movie would be. Cable has a long long way to go before they would even make a dent in the market. Not everyone has cable or if they do, not very many people have the dream service Pix seems to have.
With all that being said, you'd have to be blind not to see that certain factions of the industry sure want alternative ways of delivering entertainment to the consumer. Panasonic and a few others are going to start offering TV's with circuitry built in to them to interact with cable. If that isn't a stepping stone I don't know what is. This still don't mean a take over, it just means some one wants a piece of the pie. Comcast has announced some major plans to offer more movies, a projected database of 6,000 titles and they will use 4 analog stations to deliver a movie download. First big draw back is this plan is limited to COMCAST.
Most of you live in larger cities and fail to realize that a good size segment of consumers can't get cable or broadband if they wanted it. You see all this cutting edge stuff and get all excited but not every one gets to play. St. Louis isn't a small town and our cable system isn't much better today than it probably was 20 years ago. Like I posted some where, they, being Charter, just went "digital" last summer. If it wasn't for satelite becoming a viable option for rural areas they'd be out the picture all together.
Anyway just some thoughts to stir in.
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See.....there you guys go with the long posts again. I have made it pretty clear, but I'll say it again........I'm Lazy. Can someone please sum this up with a sentence or 2 please?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by L.J.
See.....there you guys go with the long posts again. I have made it pretty clear, but I'll say it again........I'm Lazy. Can someone please sum this up with a sentence or 2 please?
Whatever will be, will be...
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