I Predict HD DVD Players Will Be A Failure for the first 3 Years

[paul_pci]

EG- I didn't know you can get DD or DTS 5.1 through digital cable or satellite. I don't have dig cable so that why I probably didn't know. What programs are in 5.1? A lot? Does ESPN come in 5.1 without HDTV?

I have Direct TV with a digital connection, non HD service, and two HBO, two Starz, and a few Showtime channels carry 5.1 audio. And from what I've read, some, but not all, HD programming is 5.1, but since we don't have HD direct tv (yet), I cannot comment further.

[SlumpBuster]

Interesting thread. But in reading through, I see alot of confusion and misinformation followed by correction and debate. Despite some of the goofy arguments that erupt on this board, most any of us are vastly more knowledgable regarding AV than your average schlub. So here we are, a group of well informed hobbyists and we can't even get the details and pros/cons straight. Now dump that sort of format war confusion into the $30 Walmart DVD player crowd and ask them to pay $300 to $500 for it? I make no prediction, but I won't be surprised if we see some real beta-max style losers in the next decade. And I say that as a proud MiniDisk owner... Boy I picked the wrong one there What a boob

[westcott]

The reason I am so excited about HD video disk technolgy is because I am tired of the junk Directv puts out and calls it HD. My DVD player looks better than most of the movies presented as HD. Only those programs filmed with real HD cameras like football games and other digital programs do you really get to see what HD can truly be.

Give me a HD disc without all the compression artifacts found on sat\cable and true 720p\1080i video quality! Thats what I want. And I do not want to have to buy the programming. I want to rent it like I currently do with NetFlix or BlockBuster. In that respect, I agree it may be two or three years before we see true HD programming on disc in every segment of the existing market. It is hard to imagine the existing capital investment in recording and editing equipment. To change this all out is a MAJOR hurdle, even when the hardware is technically available.

As far as the demise of SACD and DVD Audio. These technologies never provided a real increase in sound quality because few players provided digital connections, and even fewer have decent bass management. I won't even get into the lack of material or the premium you pay for a perceived better resolution.

[swgiust]

HD is like sex, untill you've done it (or seen it) nobody can explain it. There are over
10 MILLION HD tv's in america right now. Only about 25% of them actually get HD.
Once people see what an HD/Blue ray DVD looks like... Those players will fly off
the shelves. $ 500 - $ 1000 for a player (at first) who cares, it's going to be sitting
next to a $ 3500 TV.

I have my little side fund started and I am going to buy a Blue ray player as soon
as I can.

We've got to remember that Hollywood made more money off of DVD's in the last
3 or 4 years then the did off the original movies. Once these new disc hit the shelves
at Blockbuster and Bestbuy, the original DVD is DEAD.

[shokhead]

Your fooling yourself.

[N. Abstentia]

HD is like sex, untill you've done it (or seen it) nobody can explain it. There are over
10 MILLION HD tv's in america right now. Only about 25% of them actually get HD.
Once people see what an HD/Blue ray DVD looks like... Those players will fly off
the shelves. $ 500 - $ 1000 for a player (at first) who cares, it's going to be sitting
next to a $ 3500 TV.

Don't count on that happening.

To people like us, yes...they might fly off the shelves. But guess what? People like us (audio/videophiles) make up maybe 10% of the buying public. Joe Sixpack does not care that HD-DVD looks great, it won't make his 27" standard def TV look any better so why should he spend $1000 to buy a player that is no better than a $39 WalMart DVD player to him?

And what about video rental places? How many HD-DVD movies are they going to have? Few to none at first, that's how many.

This is going to be an uphill battle for HD-DVD..trust me. It's going to be years and years before it starts to replace DVD.

[shokhead]

Mybe 10% and you are right on. I heard today they might try releasing movies to the theather and to rental at the same times.