Is 10yrs old too early to die?

[kexodusc]

My take is a bit different.

DVD isn't dying, but the universal, dominant format might be. DVD-A and SACD still enjoy a few releases. They aren't mainstream, but so what? Neither are Ferarri's. Look at all the digital audio formats. We used to talk about them dying and disappearing. mp3 seems here to stay.

Slowly we're seeing more and more special-needs and niche products find their way to little corners of the market. It's happening in almost every industry, I think it's almost a certainty that by the time downloading movies and music becomes 25% of the industry's business, we will have seen the last truly dominant format. And that very well could be DVD.
How many video gaming formats are there? Music formats? Too many dollar-hungry media corps will put an end to the universal, standard format.

[GMichael]

When are they going to start storing movies on little memory chips? Seems to me that this would be the easiest way. My camera has a small chip that holds 4GB of memory. A couple of years ago 1GB was a big deal. Soon the 4GB's may be old and cost pennies. How much space does a movie (HD or not) take up? Will this spell the end for both DVD and HD-DVD/BLU-RAY?

[kexodusc]

When are they going to start storing movies on little memory chips? Seems to me that this would be the easiest way. My camera has a small chip that holds 4GB of memory. A couple of years ago 1GB was a big deal. Soon the 4GB's may be old and cost pennies. How much space does a movie (HD or not) take up? Will this spell the end for both DVD and HD-DVD/BLU-RAY?

This would make the most sense, I think...Rather than fancy lasers and expensive hardware, put the burden on software.

For now, I think these HD movie formats are holding 30-50 GB at least. That's gonna be an aweful expensive chip...but in a few years who knows?

I wonder how congested internet traffic would get if legal downloading HD movies became extremely popular? I think everyone's sort of banking on that being a viable future alternative.

Judging by the shelf space given to HD titles, number of HD players I see in stores, and even the slow transition to HD for television service providers, I kinda wonder if the whole HD thing is still really a few years away from taking over.

[PeruvianSkies]

My take is a bit different.

DVD isn't dying, but the universal, dominant format might be. DVD-A and SACD still enjoy a few releases. They aren't mainstream, but so what? Neither are Ferarri's. Look at all the digital audio formats. We used to talk about them dying and disappearing. mp3 seems here to stay.

Slowly we're seeing more and more special-needs and niche products find their way to little corners of the market. It's happening in almost every industry, I think it's almost a certainty that by the time downloading movies and music becomes 25% of the industry's business, we will have seen the last truly dominant format. And that very well could be DVD.
How many video gaming formats are there? Music formats? Too many dollar-hungry media corps will put an end to the universal, standard format.

I don't really see the illustration here because comparing this to a car doesn't really hold up well. When someone buys a car they typically only buy ONE car. We are talking about formats here and the problem with SACD or DVD-A is the limited amount of titles that one can get and it would be great if you could get a wider selection of them. HD-DVD and Blu-ray are lightyears beyond where SACD and DVD-A are. At least people are talking about the HD formats and getting studio support to some extent. Few people see a need for higher resolution audio, which is unfortunate. Quite frankly the majority of people listen to music in their cars, on computer, on a boombox at work, or some small system while they do other things. It's only the small majority of people like us on this site that actually sit around and just absord music. Therefore SACD and DVD-A are quite useless in a car system.

[Smokey]

Unlike VHS, DVDs do not degrade (not at least as rapidly) over time due to wear and tear, or just by siting on shelf. I remember having the Star Treck movies on VHS, and may be played it 2 or 3 times. But after three or four years of just siting on the shelf, the picture got extremely noisy with faded colors. So it became worthless.

So as soon as DVD arrived, most people were glad to dump their VHS collection. But DVDs durability make it a commodity, and consumers might not be as quick to part with it as they did with VHS.

Sorry, I am just babbling

[PeruvianSkies]

Unlike VHS, DVDs do not degrade (not at least as rapidly) over time due to wear and tear, or just by siting on shelf. I remember having the Star Treck movies on VHS, and may be played it 2 or 3 times. But after three or four years of just siting on the shelf, the picture got extremely noisy with faded colors. So it became worthless.

So as soon as DVD arrived, most people were glad to dump their VHS collection. But DVDs durability make it a commodity, and consumers might not be as quick to part with it as they did with VHS.

Sorry, I am just babbling

I am somewhat convinced that they could put just about any movie or TV show of all time on DVD and there would be someone out there to buy it, the fact is that they have only hit about 15% of what is out there on DVD. There are still many films out there not on DVD and plenty of TV shows...I'm waiting for THE WONDER YEARS seasons on DVD....just kidding.

[kexodusc]

I don't really see the illustration here because comparing this to a car doesn't really hold up well. When someone buys a car they typically only buy ONE car. We are talking about formats here and the problem with SACD or DVD-A is the limited amount of titles that one can get and it would be great if you could get a wider selection of them. HD-DVD and Blu-ray are lightyears beyond where SACD and DVD-A are. At least people are talking about the HD formats and getting studio support to some extent. Few people see a need for higher resolution audio, which is unfortunate. Quite frankly the majority of people listen to music in their cars, on computer, on a boombox at work, or some small system while they do other things. It's only the small majority of people like us on this site that actually sit around and just absord music. Therefore SACD and DVD-A are quite useless in a car system.

The point made was simple and the Ferarri comparison is quite appropriate here if you stop thinking in terms of "format" and consider each format as just a different kind of video media. You don't need to be the dominant format, or dominant product in ANY market (ie, cars, movies/music media, etc) to enjoy a successful run. SACD and DVD-A didn't replace CD, but they continue to satisfy audiophiles in a niche market who want more than than standard CD audio. When it comes to music, they are the high performance, luxury items, much like Ferarri is in its industry...each made to satisfy a niche market ...Right now, so are HD-DVD and BluRay. Only a very small number of people right now are willing to drop the money to move from DVD. There's a lot of us here who'd love to make the switch, we're probably way ahead of the regular joe-consumer when it comes to adopting new audio/video products, but there's still a few too many barriers to entry for us.

For most of the market, DVD is still good enough. There's a huge number of individuals who hope and want HD formats to become more affordable and mainstream (I even hope Ferarri becomes more affordable and mainstream ). We're all sort of banking on this to happen, but there's a good chance that neither will never take over and completely replace DVD as the "only" format available.

I think the problem here is that we've all sort of become conditioned to expect only 1 format in which all titles are released. But who made that rule? Sure, it offers benefits. But I think as long as there's companies looking to make a buck, they'll find different ways to talk consumers into buying "their version" of a product.

If all the studios were to continue to support DVD indefinitely, and not "force" the market into a new product by gradually discontinuing support, who knows how long they could co-exist? It could be years before BluRay or HD-DVD win out over DVD. Neither may ever reach that level. HD-DVD and BluRay could very easily release titles to a relatively small HD capable (or willing) market, while standard DVD continues to sell for several years. By then, a few future formats might be tempting that same niche market to opt for the new high performance product.

Like I mentioned earlier, how many musical formats are there currently? Let's just look at digital audio formats. WMA, mp3, Ogg, flac, etc...each appeals to different crowds for different reasons. I can remember back in the late 90's everyone expected the less common formats to disappear eventually. Hasn't happened.

Your points about people listening in their cars, on their computers, etc, really emphasize my point. We could probably all get by with only 1 universal standard format, but I think it's a very real possibility that days of 1 format only are over. I use LP's, CD's, DVD-A, SACD, and 3 kinds of digital audio - 1 for home, 1 for the car, 1 for my portable player - each offers certain benefits that make it ideal for my needs in their respective application. Quite honestly, having multiple media formats can be a blessing, too.

For video, well, we could very easily be headed for something similar. Especially as Microsoft looks to really be pushing HD downloading in the future - this could eliminate the need for a disc-based format altogether for many people. I don't think the downloading option is going to replace buying a disc in the store any time soon, but I wouldn't be shocked if in 2 or 3 years it represents a significant portion of sales.

I think calling the DVD format dead (or predicting its demise in the near future) might be a bit premature. Especially with so many of the video enthusiast crowd sitting on the fence still waiting for a winner in the HD-DVD/BluRay war. As long as sizeable portion of the market continues to use only DVD players, they'll keep making new DVD's. This could go on for another 5 or 10 years. They'll even continue to sell DVD's long after it loses the #1 spot.

[GMichael]

So DVD's are not dying so much as they are growing old. There are a couple of new kids on the block. They have a lot of potential, but so far, still just kids. As these kids grow up, one may beat the other up. Bruised and beaten, the loser may limp on anyhow. Meanwhile, DVD's will still be in charge for a few more years. Some day, one of these kids will decide that it's time to take over, and challenge the old timer. Even then, the old timer won't die off right then and there. He'll pick up a cane at Wal-Mart and wobble on for another decade or so. Eventually he will fade away. And someday, these new kids will move on as well. Replaced by an even newer kid with more bravado than ever.