What's the deal with HD radio?

[nightflier]

Wooch, I debated on whether I should do another point-for-point post, but I'll just leave it at these two major points:

A. Your main point is that HD radio has to gain traction in the car audio market. But the facts are that (1) it hasn't been able to despite having 14000 stations and plenty of products to chose from, (2) the car industry is not growing and could actually severely recede in the next few years, (3) portable devices that plug into a car audio system can fill that void, (4) cars will continue to further integrate with home networks both by cellular link and WiFi.

B. It then follows that the portable devices market is about to change dramatically in the following ways (1) WiFi will soon become the most requested and included feature in cell phones, (2) all cell phones will play music, (3) Apple is shifting much of its iPod marketing focus to the iPhone and even considers the latter to be a replacement for the iPod, (4) flash/hard-drive based devices will give way to devices with a direct wireless link to much larger online-stored repositories, both public and privately owned, (5) portable devices will become a remote extension of home-based audio systems where many people's "collections" will reside - as such they will fill that role in cars as well.

If this all seems too far fetched, consider the long feature list of the upcoming gPhone from Google, not the least of which is unlimited, advertising-funded, free service - it may well replace the iPhone as the most popular phone on the market. People don't realize that Google has redefined and redesigned advertising in ways we are just now starting to understand. Don't be surprised if one day we'll be adding a Google-branded component to our HT racks, but I digress.

My main point is that I see many industry indicators pointing to the home becoming the networking hub of a family, with their cars and cellphones being remote extensions of that network. I also see such devices with limited functionalities such as iPods loosing marketshare very fast in the next few years. Likewise, subscription-based services such as XM & cable TV will consequently also loose marketshare to public, free, and advertising-funded sources of entertainment because these will be available over the internet. Unfortunately for HD, this is also a threat to them.

I don't mean to sound like I have crystal ball, but all the indicators seem to be pointing to some big changes in technology very soon. The society we know from these last few years, and I say this with the full intent of being political, is simply not sustainable. Drastic changes in our way of life are right around the corner, and this will start with a complete rethinking of our car-culture and how far from our homes (soon to be our network hubs) we will be comfortable traveling. How HD is able to integrate into that new lifestyle will determine if it survives.

[Woochifer]

A. Your main point is that HD radio has to gain traction in the car audio market. But the facts are that (1) it hasn't been able to despite having 14000 stations and plenty of products to chose from, (2) the car industry is not growing and could actually severely recede in the next few years, (3) portable devices that plug into a car audio system can fill that void, (4) cars will continue to further integrate with home networks both by cellular link and WiFi.

And you're basing your assertion on a product less than two years old. It also took XM and Sirius two years on the air before their products began appearing on new car systems, and only within the last couple of years has the option become commonplace. Where HD Radio sits right now is not nearly as crucial as where it is two or three from now.

Also, even with a car industry in decline, we're still talking about millions of new auto sales (17 million new cars last year in the U.S.) and a potential audience that far outstrips what the CE companies sell in audio products. Even with other networked devices included with new cars, do you actually think that their numbers will outnumber terrestrial radio tuners?

B. It then follows that the portable devices market is about to change dramatically in the following ways (1) WiFi will soon become the most requested and included feature in cell phones, (2) all cell phones will play music, (3) Apple is shifting much of its iPod marketing focus to the iPhone and even considers the latter to be a replacement for the iPod, (4) flash/hard-drive based devices will give way to devices with a direct wireless link to much larger online-stored repositories, both public and privately owned, (5) portable devices will become a remote extension of home-based audio systems where many people's "collections" will reside - as such they will fill that role in cars as well.

If this all seems too far fetched, consider the long feature list of the upcoming gPhone from Google, not the least of which is unlimited, advertising-funded, free service - it may well replace the iPhone as the most popular phone on the market. People don't realize that Google has redefined and redesigned advertising in ways we are just now starting to understand. Don't be surprised if one day we'll be adding a Google-branded component to our HT racks, but I digress.

My main point is that I see many industry indicators pointing to the home becoming the networking hub of a family, with their cars and cellphones being remote extensions of that network. I also see such devices with limited functionalities such as iPods loosing marketshare very fast in the next few years. Likewise, subscription-based services such as XM & cable TV will consequently also loose marketshare to public, free, and advertising-funded sources of entertainment because these will be available over the internet. Unfortunately for HD, this is also a threat to them.

And how do any of these trends lock HD Radio out of the mix? HD Radio isn't even in the portables market yet because its current chipsets consume far too much energy. See what happens when the compatible chipsets become available. It might open up the market, it might not, but for now HD Radio can't even play in that market.

I don't mean to sound like I have crystal ball, but all the indicators seem to be pointing to some big changes in technology very soon. The society we know from these last few years, and I say this with the full intent of being political, is simply not sustainable. Drastic changes in our way of life are right around the corner, and this will start with a complete rethinking of our car-culture and how far from our homes (soon to be our network hubs) we will be comfortable traveling. How HD is able to integrate into that new lifestyle will determine if it survives.

Personally, I think this kind of drastic reconfiguration is a pipedream. I've done research into transit-oriented development and work on projects that involve so-called "smart growth," Ultimately, a lot of this stuff is less about environmentalism and responsible stewardship than about simply promoting and packaging a lifestyle to stimulate real estate development (new urbanism guru Andres Duane even stated as such at a conference I attended several years ago). I doubt that our car culture will ever come to an end, for one thing, good luck trying to retrofit higher densities (which are needed if you want people to eliminate car trips or make mass transit viable) into existing single-family neighborhoods, and good luck trying to fund the transit upgrades needed to get people out of their cars. If you've ever had to sit in on a planning commission hearing in even the most progressive communities, you'd see that opposition to densification is every bit as prevalent in Santa Monica or Berkeley as it is in Irvine or Riverside. Magnify that into thousands of communities across the country, and it's not exactly a situation that encourages massive lifestyle changes.

And what if alternative/renewable fuels gain traction? That would simply mean people driving even more (in the economics of transportation, supply creates demand), and development going into even more far flung outposts than currently exist. Technologically speaking, connected/networked lifestyles allow people to live way out on the urban edge, which makes them even more dependent on the automobile to handle even the smallest of errands, since places of commerce and work are now located even further away. I'm not saying this is desirable, but it's just another outcome that technology can allow to happen.