CES, it's that time again. Thoughts? care? predictions?

[Mr Peabody]

Except, for you Pix, he's band from predictions. It's my thread.

Wet your appetite: http://www.techradar.com/news/audio/hi-fi-radio

http://ces2010.techradar.com/

As the title says, any thoughts? Do we care any more?

Do these shows put pressure on manufacturers to come out with new products even though there may not be much new?

[Ajani]

I still care... I enjoy reading about new gear debuted at CES... It may put pressure on manufacturers, but I think there needs to be some amount of pressure to encourage innovation and updating of product ranges...

As always I'm interested to see if any of my favorite brands have out new gear....

What price will the new AKG top of line headphones be??? Will they be direct competition for the the Sennheiser HD800???

Will Monitor Audio launch a new Gold Series???

Will Revel update the Performa/Concerta Line???

Right now I'm holding off on any major Hi-Fi purchases until after CES...

[Mr Peabody]

I agree, It's almost like what the kids feel toward Xmas morning. I'm always anxious to see if anything new hit, or what's around the corner.

[Ajani]

Magnepan will be launching the MG 1.7 at CES:

http://forums.audioreview.com/showthread.php?t=32689

[Mr Peabody]

Yeah, I saw that on Manlystanley's post about whether he should have waited. Apparently, he just snagged a good deal on a pair of 1.6's.

[Woochifer]

The big theme for this year's CES will be the rollout of 3D HDTV products.

http://www.techwatch.co.uk/2009/12/29/3d-hdtv-to-be-the-star-of-the-ces/

Now that the 3D Blu-ray spec has come out, you'll see a massive movement in that direction at CES. Directv and Sky TV have already announced that they will begin broadcasting a dedicated 3D HDTV channel in 2010, so the ball has begun rolling. The intriguing aspect will be the implementation side by TV manufacturers, because even with a standard 3D HD signal, different TVs will take different approaches to displaying 3D images.

With more movies now going 3D and audiences growing more comfortable with 3D viewing, there will be at least some demand for 3D for home use. Whether or not this increases sales or gains significant market share remains to be seen. But, at this year's CES at least, 3D will probably be the dominant theme. Makes sense because HDTV has gone mainstream and prices have plunged into commodity territory. Manufacturers need a new high margin technology that will drive growth for the next decade, and they are betting on 3D.

Like it or not, the audio side is more of an afterthought at CES. It's the iPod that drives the market, and you'll probably see more integration products. But, home audio components are more of a niche. They'll have a minimal presence at the main CES show, while the high end manufacturers stage their own T.H.E. Show in parallel to CES.

[Mr Peabody]

I haven't been keeping up with the 3D, let's say a person was interested, what would they have to buy new to watch 3D? My kids have a couple DVD's that came with 3D glasses and the movie is 3D. I'm assuming this new 3D is something that surpasses that?

[Mr Peabody]

Speaking of 2 channel here's a couple new pieces going to the show: http://www.enjoythemusic.com/news/

[Ajani]

Nice to see that Musical Fidelity will be launching an M3 Integrated... I was wondering if they had totally abandoned the more affordable Hi-Fi segment, considered that their cheapest Integrated is currently the $3K M6i...

[RGA]

I have my pass and will be flying down on the 6th. Also, for many more of the audio relaated aspects The Show is held at the Flamingo which is close to CES - walking distance.

These are the companies who show at The Show. http://theshowlasvegas.com/2010/exhibitors_full.php

[Mr Peabody]

RGA, if you love us at all you'll bring us the full report. Lucky dog

[thekid]

I think everything there is 20 years too early for me....... :D

[Feanor]

The big theme for this year's CES will be the rollout of 3D HDTV products.

http://www.techwatch.co.uk/2009/12/29/3d-hdtv-to-be-the-star-of-the-ces/

....
Wooch, can you give us a two-paragraph primer on 3D TV?

I suspect that in theaters pairs of polarized images are project on the screen and the glasses permit one eye to see one image, and the other the other. Presumably a new TV technology would be necessary to display polarized images?

Old 3D used red and green image hues; presumably this could be used on standard TVs (if anybody wanted it).

[jrhymeammo]

I think everything there is 20 years too early for me....... :D

5+ years for me, but looks like we'll be scoring some great gear down the road.
Oh yeah!!

[Woochifer]

Wooch, can you give us a two-paragraph primer on 3D TV?

I suspect that in theaters pairs of polarized images are project on the screen and the glasses permit one eye to see one image, and the other the other. Presumably a new TV technology would be necessary to display polarized images?

Old 3D used red and green image hues; presumably this could be used on standard TVs (if anybody wanted it).

It's the same principle in that you need special glasses to view the 3D images, but the technology is far more advanced than the simple red/blue glasses or polarized lenses used in years past.

My understanding is that the newer 3D technology uses synchronized image shifting done at a high frame rate. That's why the newer 3D movies in theaters require digital projectors. These newer 3D techniques, including the upcoming home versions, use shutter lenses that are timed in sync with the images on the screen. The advantage to this technique is supposedly more realistic 3D imagery that can allows your head to move around without diminishing the 3D effect.

The 3D HDTV standard allows for a common output format, but my understanding is that the different TV manufacturers will use different approaches to displaying those images. And each TV will require its own set of 3D glasses. For example, Panasonic and Samsung's 3D HDTVs likely will not allow you to switch 3D glasses -- the glasses supplied and sold with those sets will only work with their own.

[Mr Peabody]

Seems like the 3D will have a slow adoption and probably only a nitch feature.

[Woochifer]

Seems like the 3D will have a slow adoption and probably only a nitch feature.

No different than any other consumer electronics format, but I think it will have some mainstream uptake simply because that's the direction that the movies are going in. Check out the release of Avatar if you need the proof -- about 3,500 theaters showing the movie in North America and over 2,000 of them in 3D. This pattern is not all that different than with other recent studio releases. Several 3D releases are already planned for this year.

On top of that, you now have a standard 3D HDTV format to play back all of these new 3D releases. Blu-ray 3D releases are planned for 2010 and Directv has already announced a 3D HD feed. Yes, it will be slow adoption, but I don't think it will be a small niche. Rather, it will increasingly become a standard feature in the coming years. 3D won't supplant standard HD, but rather add another viewing option. No different than the transition from stereo to matrixed surround to discrete surround on the audio side.

[Mr Peabody]

You don't think proprietary glasses and having to buy a new TV and possibly new player would be a bit of a henderence?

[thekid]

S&V Magazine actually mentioned 3D as a tech trend for 2009. 3-4 manufacturers are well past the R&D phase. Panasonic demoed a 3D set at last year's CES. It was a 103 inch screen in 1080p which required you to wear LED shutter glasses which controlled infared signals allowing you to watch alternating left/right frame images. My guess is that you see other demos at this year's show and there will be a push from marketing to convince everyone that 3D is the next "must have" item in electronics.

A big obstacle at this time is that I do not think there is an industry wide 3D video standard so this thing could be another Blu-Ray/ HD format war. Economic times might lead to a faster development on that front as I think this is still strictly a technology designed solely for the purpose of selling more gear and all manufacturers need to sell more sets. (I guess you could argue that was the point of all video improvements in the last 10 years)

[Feanor]

....

The 3D HDTV standard allows for a common output format, but my understanding is that the different TV manufacturers will use different approaches to displaying those images. And each TV will require its own set of 3D glasses. For example, Panasonic and Samsung's 3D HDTVs likely will not allow you to switch 3D glasses -- the glasses supplied and sold with those sets will only work with their own.
Oh great: another round of technology wars. :(

Thanks, Wooch.

[Woochifer]

You don't think proprietary glasses and having to buy a new TV and possibly new player would be a bit of a henderence?

The proprietary glasses perhaps (but keep in mind that they will come with the TV), but buying a new TV and/or new player won't be anymore a hindrance than the new equipment requirements with HDTV, 5.1 audio, digital video/audio, or any of the other advances over the past decade plus. I know that the PS3 will add 3D capability with a simple software upgrade. No idea whether adding 3D will be that simple with other BD players.

[Woochifer]

S&V Magazine actually mentioned 3D as a tech trend for 2009. 3-4 manufacturers are well past the R&D phase. Panasonic demoed a 3D set at last year's CES. It was a 103 inch screen in 1080p which required you to wear LED shutter glasses which controlled infared signals allowing you to watch alternating left/right frame images. My guess is that you see other demos at this year's show and there will be a push from marketing to convince everyone that 3D is the next "must have" item in electronics.

I don't think that much convincing will be needed. Just look at the numbers coming in for Avatar. More than 2,000 of the 3,500 theaters showing Avatar present it in 3D, and about 90% of the advance ticket sales were for 3D screenings. The movie going public has already moved towards 3D, and more 3D releases are coming out this year.

The difference between this year and last year is that you now have a 3D HD standard that has already been adopted by Blu-ray manufacturers and getting adopted across the industry. Last year, everything was still in the prototype/proof-of-concept stage with no unified standards. This year, you have production models getting prepped for introduction.


A big obstacle at this time is that I do not think there is an industry wide 3D video standard so this thing could be another Blu-Ray/ HD format war.

That's old info. The industry has already coalesced around the MVC extension to the MPEG-4 standard for 3D content. Blu-ray has adopted it, it will be part of the upcoming HDMI 1.4 spec, and I believe that's what Directv will be using on its 3D HD feed. There's no format war on the horizon.


Economic times might lead to a faster development on that front as I think this is still strictly a technology designed solely for the purpose of selling more gear and all manufacturers need to sell more sets. (I guess you could argue that was the point of all video improvements in the last 10 years)

Selling more gear is the purpose of EVERY new consumer electronics technology. But, more specifically it's about coming out with technologies that will support higher margins. That's because once a new technology gets introduced, the clock is ticking and it's only a matter of time until that technology becomes commodified.

Just look at products like the VCR, CD player, DVD player. Remember how expensive those products were when they first hit stores? Or even flat screen TVs? A decade ago, a plasma TV cost upwards of $10,000. Now, you can find something that outperforms that set for under $600.

Consumer electronics manufacturers cannot survive by just letting their product lines slide into commodity price points. They have to keep improving the product in order to maintain the existing price points, and they have to add something entirely new in order to justify higher price points.

They are now betting that 3D is the technology that will prop up the price points. It's no different than when TV manufacturers got behind HDTV a decade ago, or when they began offering larger screen sizes, or went with flat panels. All of those technologies once supported very high margins, but have now become low margin high volume commodities.

[thekid]

Don't really disagree with any of your points. I am not sure that the ticket sales of Avatar translate into widespread demand for 3D. Several of the movie reviews I saw mentioned the movie target seemed to be the "gamer generation". Not sure if that translates into the same group with enough disposable income to buy the new 3D sets but then again they lay out $50 a pop for games on a regular basis so who knows.

I agree with you on the need for manufacturers to upgrade to sell product. I am just not sure 3D is the technology that is going to do it. IMO the upgrades in the last 10-20 years has caused even the most casual viewer to move because of the improvements in PQ. Does 3D technology improve your viewing experience or just provide a different type of a viewing experience? I think that is the question that the market may soon be answering.

[Mr Peabody]

If nothing else, 3D might give the theater business a shot in the arm.

[Woochifer]

Don't really disagree with any of your points. I am not sure that the ticket sales of Avatar translate into widespread demand for 3D. Several of the movie reviews I saw mentioned the movie target seemed to be the "gamer generation". Not sure if that translates into the same group with enough disposable income to buy the new 3D sets but then again they lay out $50 a pop for games on a regular basis so who knows.

Presumptions based on movie reviews simply don't reflect reality. The so-called "gamer generation" alone cannot produce the types of box office numbers that you're seeing with Avatar. Maybe they will create a big opening weekend, but Avatar has sustained its box office returns in the second and third weekends, where you typically see more mainstream audiences.

Most movies lose upwards of about 50% of their opening weekend audience in the second weekend -- Avatar gained during its second weekend, and the third weekend totals are only 10% off from the opening weekend, which is almost unheard of for a wide release. So far, the 3D screenings have accounted for more than 75% of the ticket sales. I think this certainly indicates very widespread demand for 3D, and is consistent with where the market trends have been going.

Over the last couple of years, most of the big 3D releases have been animated or family movies. Certainly not the stuff of the "gamer generation."


I agree with you on the need for manufacturers to upgrade to sell product. I am just not sure 3D is the technology that is going to do it. IMO the upgrades in the last 10-20 years has caused even the most casual viewer to move because of the improvements in PQ. Does 3D technology improve your viewing experience or just provide a different type of a viewing experience? I think that is the question that the market may soon be answering.

3D right now is the technology that has the most development activity behind it. Like it or not, picture quality alone is not what drove the TV market. It was also moving to larger screens, going to a flat form factor, etc. Combination of utility, wow factor, and actual performance improvements. Those are all trends that overlapped one another. 3D would add another layer to the mix, and it seems that the new 3D technologies add a lot more to the viewing experience than the old red/blue glasses did. The box office returns for 3D movies are a strong indicator that the audience is there for these more advanced 3D approaches.

[Woochifer]

If nothing else, 3D might give the theater business a shot in the arm.

It already has (see above info on the box office returns for Avatar). That's why there's so much development activity for home 3D.

[thekid]

Again I think our only disagreement is in the small details and the outcome. When I mentioned PQ I clumsily was refering to all of the other factors you mentioned. According to a Pew Research poll the number of people who consider TV a necessity is at 52% which according to them is the lowest % in 35 years. Couple that with a substantial number of people who bought TV's with the larger, flatter etc features and the economic times and I am not sure those same people are going to lay out the additional money for a TV that has 3D technology. Laying out $7.50 to see a 3D movie does not IMO translate to laying out say $1750 for a 3D TV that has limited product. All I am saying is that I am highly skeptical. I understand why the manufacturers have to do it but maybe there was a bit of tech bubble that has popped along with the other bubbles that popped during this economic down turn.

FWIW
If you look at my preferences in audio (and the pocketbook) I am clearly not a person who runs out to have the latest and the greatest. I am probably the worst person to comment on tech trends....... :D

[poppachubby]

I don't get it. So it would be a TV capable only of 3D? That sounds like a nightmare to me. 3D porn would be about the only cool thing to watch consistently.

[frahengeo]

3D porn would be about the only cool thing to watch consistently.

LOL! Are you sure that you'd want to see "everything" in 3D?

[Hyfi]

My Dynaudio 42s were actually Demo Speakers at CES 2 years ago and I got them two weeks after it ended. They still have the little stickers on the back from the show.

[pixelthis]

I don't get it. So it would be a TV capable only of 3D? That sounds like a nightmare to me. 3D porn would be about the only cool thing to watch consistently.

NOT EVERYTHING.
No set standard, when are these guys gonna learn?
BTW a friend saw 3D Avatar at the local cineplex and said it was quite impressive.
STILL USES THE old technique of showing different things to both eyes.
real 3D has yet to be discovered.:1:

[dean_martin]

Is AR sending someone to CES (or is someone going on behalf of AR)? In the past we got pics and a report.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

NOT EVERYTHING.
No set standard, when are these guys gonna learn?

The standard is set in the Bluray format, and it looks like all the major television manufacturers have adopted Real3D technology for display playback. So the standards are there, and they are set for production, encoding and display. They have learned.



BTW a friend saw 3D Avatar at the local cineplex and said it was quite impressive.
STILL USES THE old technique of showing different things to both eyes.
real 3D has yet to be discovered.:1:

3D is old, but the technology they are deploying is not. We have never seen 3D that maintained all of the colors right, didn't ghost, and didn't give EVERYONE a headache. The old 3D gave me a headache, the new technology doesn't.

[Woochifer]

Again I think our only disagreement is in the small details and the outcome. When I mentioned PQ I clumsily was refering to all of the other factors you mentioned. According to a Pew Research poll the number of people who consider TV a necessity is at 52% which according to them is the lowest % in 35 years. Couple that with a substantial number of people who bought TV's with the larger, flatter etc features and the economic times and I am not sure those same people are going to lay out the additional money for a TV that has 3D technology. Laying out $7.50 to see a 3D movie does not IMO translate to laying out say $1750 for a 3D TV that has limited product. All I am saying is that I am highly skeptical. I understand why the manufacturers have to do it but maybe there was a bit of tech bubble that has popped along with the other bubbles that popped during this economic down turn.

Since I have experience with consumer expenditure surveying, I will say that the devil's in the details. IMO, attitudinal surveys like the one that you cited are only minimally useful, because they gauge opinion and attitude. The ones that measure actual behavior are the ones that you should pay attention to.

Sure, people will tell a pollster that they don't regard TV as a necessity, yet when you look at the data that measures actual viewing time, you'll find that people watch more TV than ever. Buying a TV's about as exciting as buying any other household appliance (i.e., not very). But, nowadays good luck trying to find a TV without color, without HD resolution, without stereo sound, or even a good ole CRT TV. Every one of those advances were met with similar skepticism, yet they've all become the norm.

Down the road, I think the 3D feature will simply become standard issue. In the early stages, it will be the early adopters buying the 3D TVs, just as early adopters were the ones buying HDTVs a decade ago, even with a dearth of HD programming.

Your comparison of a movie ticket vs a TV purchase price is not valid because you're presenting a false choice. People who own TVs don't eschew moviegoing. Otherwise, more than 90% of the population would never go to movies, and we know that's not true.

The thing is that advances that occur in the movie houses will usually precede advances in home entertainment. Right now, you're seeing a dramatic shift to 3D on the theatrical side. All of the box office numbers are pointing in that direction, so it doesn't make any sense that demand for 3D won't take hold for home entertainment at some level. The fact that the industry has adopted 3D standards is significant, because now everybody is working from a common template.

[Woochifer]

I don't get it. So it would be a TV capable only of 3D? That sounds like a nightmare to me. 3D porn would be about the only cool thing to watch consistently.

What makes you think these sets wouldn't play regular 2D HD content? The only requirement is that they have a refresh rate of at least 120 Hz in order to accommodate alternating 60 frame signals.

[poppachubby]

What makes you think these sets wouldn't play regular 2D HD content? The only requirement is that they have a refresh rate of at least 120 Hz in order to accommodate alternating 60 frame signals.

Actually, nothing makes me think anything. I know nothing about TV tech, I was asking. So it would play regular stuff as well. OK, that seems more reasonable.

BTW, I looked at your DVD collection. You have a nice collection of Kung-Fu. I am an avid fan, Asian action also. I would say you have about 50% of the necessary classics, but you should check out some more of the recent stuff.

For your collection, I would reccomend, The Rebel, Ong Bak, Versus and Dynamite Warrior. Also, I don't think I saw Tai-Chi Master, which is classic Jet-Li, one of my all time faves. I would say it's a must have for your collection. It's significant in many ways, but mostly for it's advancement of wire-fu, although some wires are visible in some scenes. The final fight is awesome, "Hahahaha, I am God in my own heaven!"...

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LOL! Are you sure that you'd want to see "everything" in 3D?

Maybe not the money shot...

[RGA]

The closer we get to the holodeck from Star Trek TNG (and they're working on it) the happier I will be. 3D is closer.

[pixelthis]

The closer we get to the holodeck from Star Trek TNG (and they're working on it) the happier I will be. 3D is closer.

THE HOLODECK WILL NEVER HAPPEN.
That is what you get when non sci-fi types try to do sci-fi.
For a real look at the future read the works of James P. Hogan.
Why have a complicated holoprojector when you just have to feed a signal directly into the brain?:1:

[pixelthis]

The standard is set in the Bluray format, and it looks like all the major television manufacturers have adopted Real3D technology for display playback. So the standards are there, and they are set for production, encoding and display. They have learned.




3D is old, but the technology they are deploying is not. We have never seen 3D that maintained all of the colors right, didn't ghost, and didn't give EVERYONE a headache. The old 3D gave me a headache, the new technology doesn't.

Still the same thing tho, showing slightly different images to each eye to produce a 3d "effect", still requires the DEVO glasses.
THE NEW AND IMPROVED VERSION IS STILL JUST A VERSION
OF THE SAME OLD CONCEPT.
A refined modern deisel engine is cleaner and quiter, but still a deisel.:1:

[Mr Peabody]

Pix, Timothy Leary also had a way to send a signal to the brain. Now I think we've got some electrodes waiting for yours.

[pixelthis]

Pix, Timothy Leary also had a way to send a signal to the brain. Now I think we've got some electrodes waiting for yours.

Yeah, but the message was scrambled.
ANYWAY, read an article today and it seems that the industry is determined
to make a go of 3d.
MAIN aspect is battery powered "shutter" glasses that seem a lot like the old polarized
system, but much improved.
MAIN problem is guys like the one interviewed who got a 52" flat screen for Christmas
for 1700 bucks and is quite happy, thank you very much.
Of course Toshiba has to be different, their idea is a settop box with sophisticated
procs that convert anything to 3D on the fly.
Sounds pretty ambitious for a company thats hasnt figured out how to make a
DVD player with a lifespan longer than a fruitfly.
Also expensive, very expensive.
Eventually I beleive any set with 120 hz or higher will do 3D.
But right now it seems a comb for a bald man.:1:

[nightflier]

As I've mentioned elsewhere, the one thing that has been slowly becoming ubiquitous is smaller and more compact gear, especially video. Video on small screens is more common-place at this year's CES than any other technology, except that it's not seen as a major development in this industry (probably because it is so common). My guess is that the next big thing will be 3D on small screens because that is all that Gen-Xers can afford.

[nightflier]

THE HOLODECK WILL NEVER HAPPEN.
That is what you get when non sci-fi types try to do sci-fi.
For a real look at the future read the works of James P. Hogan.
Why have a complicated holoprojector when you just have to feed a signal directly into the brain?:1:

Whether it happens in an audio-visual helmet, or in a larger environment around the individual, we can't deny that this is the holy grail of entertainment: the holodeck experience.

[Mr Peabody]

If I was interested in 3D a set top box would be much more appealing than battery powered glasses. When considering cost you have to multiply the glasses by the number of users, potential users, in the home.

[Woochifer]

Actually, nothing makes me think anything. I know nothing about TV tech, I was asking. So it would play regular stuff as well. OK, that seems more reasonable.

BTW, I looked at your DVD collection. You have a nice collection of Kung-Fu. I am an avid fan, Asian action also. I would say you have about 50% of the necessary classics, but you should check out some more of the recent stuff.

For your collection, I would reccomend, The Rebel, Ong Bak, Versus and Dynamite Warrior. Also, I don't think I saw Tai-Chi Master, which is classic Jet-Li, one of my all time faves. I would say it's a must have for your collection. It's significant in many ways, but mostly for it's advancement of wire-fu, although some wires are visible in some scenes. The final fight is awesome, "Hahahaha, I am God in my own heaven!"...

Tai Chi Master is definitely one of the better Jet Li flicks. I saw this one on the big screen several years ago, and it was awesome.

The Dragon Dynasty DVD line has been a godsend for stateside martial arts fans, with decent picture quality and the original language tracks intact. Not everything's been perfect (e.g., the use of dubtitles on Hard Boiled), but all in all nearly all of the releases have been worthy, especially the Shaw Brothers releases. I've been a bit negligent as of late with filling my martial arts collection.

I do have Ong Bak, but haven't watched it yet. I took a pass on a lot of the earlier Jet Li releases because they were the dubbed versions. Same goes with the Jackie Chan releases. I've bought some imported versions, but you gotta be wary of the video quality for any DVD coming from HK or Taiwan or China. There is a Jackie Chan boxed set that I heard great things about, but unfortunately it's regionally coded.

A lot of the best martial arts releases have been from the UK, like the Bruce Lee titles. Unfortunately for me, those UK versions are also regionally coded. The U.S. coverage of Bruce Lee was limited to the horribly dubbed and edited versions until Fox finally released a boxed set in 2006 that had the Bruce Lee movies with the original length, language tracks, and titles (no more of this Chinese Connection BS).

[poppachubby]

The Dragon Dynasty DVD line has been a godsend for stateside martial arts fans, with decent picture quality and the original language tracks intact.[QUOTE]

Yes. They've shaken things up quite a bit.


[QUOTE]I do have Ong Bak, but haven't watched it yet.

Yikes! Do yourself a favour. Really fun and fast. Based in Muay Thai, you'll find the choreography refreshing.

Get yourself The Rebel. A Vietnamese flick featuring Johnny Tri Yguyen. Dragon Dynasty put this one out. Simply awesome. I just watched Battle of the Warriors with Tony Lau. Really enjoyed it.

BTW, I saw Ninja Assassin, it sucked. What a dissapointment, the ads looked great.

[Ajani]

Is it too late to predict that Computer/Music Server Audio will be a big deal at CES? :biggrin5:

[RGA]

Just to add - everyone I talked to who watched the 3d televisions were roundly unimpressed. some complaining of it being a bit nausea inducing. That said they're bound to improve the technology. No one said they liked the idea of having glasses - included or not. But opinions aside the manufacturers tend to be able to sell things whether there is actual demand for it or not. They have to sell something new to keep the market afloat especially once sales plateau.

I was extremely impressed by the new LG ultra thin TV's. The picture quality made my Sony Bravia look like and original B&W - ok not that bad but was quite nice. Keep and eye on LG.

[Woochifer]

Just to add - everyone I talked to who watched the 3d televisions were roundly unimpressed. some complaining of it being a bit nausea inducing. That said they're bound to improve the technology. No one said they liked the idea of having glasses - included or not. But opinions aside the manufacturers tend to be able to sell things whether there is actual demand for it or not. They have to sell something new to keep the market afloat especially once sales plateau.

It's not the sales plateauing, but the price points plummeting. HDTV sales are very healthy when looking at unit sales, and household penetration is now well over 50%. Problem is that the revenue has been dropping, despite skyrocketing unit sales. HDTV has become a commodity, and the manufacturers know this. That's why you're seeing the big push towards 3D and adding stuff like network connectivity and online streaming.

The verdict for online and mobile video so far is that the uptake has been minimal compared to regular TV viewing (151 hours per month, compared to combined 7 hours per month for online and mobile video), despite all the hype you hear from the tech press. Media PCs have failed, and the litany of networked set top boxes introduced over the past couple of years have generated lots of hype but little in the way of sales.

Building the networking feature directly into the TV or Blu-ray player is the latest attempt to bring online video into the living room, where most TV viewing takes place. And it very well might work because it doesn't require consumers to purchase a dedicated device. OTOH, it might be just another feature that goes unused, as less than 10% of BD players make use of the BD-Live features built into many Blu-ray titles. Someone who buys a networked TV is also buying a lot of other features that might be more important (like better video processing, higher refresh rates, LED backlighting, etc.)

3D TV is too new for any indication of how it will fare in the market. But, I think that the box office numbers for 3D movies (i.e., the ticket demand for 3D v. 2D screenings of the same movie) over the last couple of years has established that the demand for 3D on the theatrical side has been strong. To me, that points to a lot of potential interest for home 3DTV.

In the short-term, 3D will prop up the price points for mid-level and high end TVs. Whether it will be enough to sustain revenue levels remains to be seen. And in the long-term, I suspect that 3D will just be another standard feature (much the same way that 1080p has made its way down to the entry level HDTVs) that consumers will either use or simply leave switched off.

[Feanor]

It's not the sales plateauing, but the price points plummeting. HDTV sales are very healthy when looking at unit sales, and household penetration is now well over 50%. Problem is that the revenue has been dropping, despite skyrocketing unit sales. HDTV has become a commodity, and the manufacturers know this. That's why you're seeing the big push towards 3D and adding stuff like network connectivity and online streaming.

....
The best thing to revive an interest in audio would be the commoditization of HDTVs -- consumers' money burns a hole in their pockets and they are always looking to spend it on something.

However video will always trump audio, so manufactures will push 3D TV, as Wooch says.

[RGA]

Frankly 3D will be a winner if they start - and to be blunt about it - producing porn videos in 3D if they have not done so already. Think of the possibilities. I'm not against 3D at all - it just needs to be better than what was shown - which most found to be pretty much crap most saying the still images were good but rubbish during motion. But they'll improve it I am sure and probably within a few years they'll get it better enough to sell it. And then go through 5-8 years of improving it - err rolling out the better versions in a timed manner to get the overspending early adopters to continually upgrade.

I think the best thing would be for it to be a switch on/off feature.

The televisions with the built in web cams and mics are a nice addition - using your television screen for video conferencing is a good idea.

[frahengeo]

Frankly 3D will be a winner if they start - and to be blunt about it - producing porn videos in 3D if they have not done so already.

Thought this was funny when I read it a while ago. A little excerpt taken from one of my favorite sites:

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa175.html#011110d

(Bill Hunt of The Bits is speaking about interviews he's had with the adult film industry in Las Vegas during CES)

They've been a little more cautious with Blu-ray, though as I noted that market is finally starting to take off. The OTHER reason for their lack of 3D enthusiasm is a little more amusing: At least one adult studio exec I spoke with at the Expo said he didn't think guys were going to want to... well, let's just say "do their business"... while sitting in front of a screen wearing "those damn silly glasses!" Go figure."

[Woochifer]

Frankly 3D will be a winner if they start - and to be blunt about it - producing porn videos in 3D if they have not done so already. Think of the possibilities.

Not so sure about that. My understanding is that porn in HD has been a mixed bag. That extra resolution reveals stuff like scars, blemishes, zits, and other buzzkills that don't show up at lower resolutions.

Porn is not the driving force that a lot of people in the tech press think it is, otherwise HD-DVD would have won out over Blu-ray.

There's really not much in the way of 3D production for porn. It's the major studios that have driven 3D so far. In the theaters, 3D is a done deal. It's no longer a novelty and has been proven to sell tickets.

75% of the box office receipts for Avatar have been for 3D screenings. With that movie potentially on its way to breaking the all-time records, it's a game changer for 3D in much the same way that Star Wars was a game changer for visual effects and surround sound (1st movie with Dolby Stereo, which allowed for 2.0 surround out of ordinary 35mm optical soundtracks). Demand for 3D was already growing, but Avatar has accelerated the process.


I'm not against 3D at all - it just needs to be better than what was shown - which most found to be pretty much crap most saying the still images were good but rubbish during motion. But they'll improve it I am sure and probably within a few years they'll get it better enough to sell it. And then go through 5-8 years of improving it - err rolling out the better versions in a timed manner to get the overspending early adopters to continually upgrade.

While I'm eternally skeptical of the hype-driven tech press, most of the reports I read have been positive on the 3D demos. Some reports were less than enthusiastic (some of the demo booths at CES also had issues with the shutter glasses losing sync with the timing code), but I can't think of any of them that regarded 3D as "crap" or "rubbish." The display technology also varies significantly by manufacturer, even though the industry now supports a standard 3DTV signal format.


I think the best thing would be for it to be a switch on/off feature.

For the short-term, you'll probably see separate feeds, much the same way that you currently see SD and HD simulcasts. If the signal is 2D, your TV will display it that way. If it's in 3D, that's also how the TV will display it. Since the new 3D approach involves combining two alternating 60 Hz video signals into a single 120 Hz feed, I would guess that backwards compatibility is possible by simply displaying one of the two 60 Hz signals. It won't look any different than any other HD video source, and won't be like the older 3D features that had the polarized images overlaid on top of each other.

The adopted 3D standard is basically an extension of the existing MPEG-4 AVC format. 3D Blu-ray titles will start coming out by the middle of the year, and they will include options for the 2D and 3D version. Directv and Discovery/Sony/IMAX have already announced 3D channels starting up around the end of the year.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

For the short-term, you'll probably see separate feeds, much the same way that you currently see SD and HD simulcasts. If the signal is 2D, your TV will display it that way. If it's in 3D, that's also how the TV will display it. Since the new 3D approach involves combining two alternating 60 Hz video signals into a single 120 Hz feed, I would guess that backwards compatibility is possible by simply displaying one of the two 60 Hz signals. It won't look any different than any other HD video source, and won't be like the older 3D features that had the polarized images overlaid on top of each other.

The adopted 3D standard is basically an extension of the existing MPEG-4 AVC format. 3D Blu-ray titles will start coming out by the middle of the year, and they will include options for the 2D and 3D version. Directv and Discovery/Sony/IMAX have already announced 3D channels starting up around the end of the year.

For 3D, the BDA has decided that the 2D+metadata is the appropriate way to go on this. Much like the lossless extension on Dts MA Lossless, the primary signal(core) will be the 2D stream, and any TV that has the built in 3D decoder will see the metadata stream and multiplex that into the signal.

[E-Stat]

For 3D, the BDA has decided that the 2D+metadata is the appropriate way to go on this. Much like the lossless extension on Dts MA Lossless, the primary signal(core) will be the 2D stream, and any TV that has the built in 3D decoder will see the metadata stream and multiplex that into the signal.
That sounds like a very practical approach. I hope the movie producers themselves don't fall prey to the gimmicky effects I saw in previews last weekend for several upcoming 3D films (Shrek, Pirahna 3D, Despicable Me). What I really liked about Avatar (especially when I saw it at a full size 400 seat 1570 IMAX) is that the effect was not flaunted and disappeared instead into a greater sense of reality. I will invest my money into duplicating that sense of visual realism.

rw

[RGA]

Hmm maybe you didn't get the humour - but boobies in 3D - c'mon people work with me here.

[Mr Peabody]

With metadata will users still need glasses?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

With metadata will users still need glasses?

Unfortunately yes. The metadata contains the second video stream and the control code for syc'ing the glasses. There have been non glasses 3D sets by Mitsubishi, but that presentation was completely inferior to what the BDA has certified. Since both the theaters and the home version of 3D will use the Rea l3D system, you will have the same effect as in the theaters soley based on the size of your screen.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

That sounds like a very practical approach. I hope the movie producers themselves don't fall prey to the gimmicky effects I saw in previews last weekend for several upcoming 3D films (Shrek, Pirahna 3D, Despicable Me). What I really liked about Avatar (especially when I saw it at a full size 400 seat 1570 IMAX) is that the effect was not flaunted and disappeared instead into a greater sense of reality. I will invest my money into duplicating that sense of visual realism.

rw

You will always have filmmakers that use technology in a flattering effective way, and others in a gross, gimmicky and distracting kind of way.

Whe had that same problem when the film community migrated over from matrixed Dolby Stereo to discrete 5.1. Some used the extra dynamic range and channels in a gimmicky and overpowering fashion, and others used it with extreme effectiveness.

[Feanor]

Unfortunately yes. The metadata contains the second video stream and the control code for syc'ing the glasses. There have been non glasses 3D sets by Mitsubishi, but that presentation was completely inferior to what the BDA has certified. Since both the theaters and the home version of 3D will use the Rea l3D system, you will have the same effect as in the theaters soley based on the size of your screen.
That's pretty cool. So should I hold off buying that HDTV (to replace my CRT) untill the 3D models are available?

I suspect I won't because the 3Ds will hit the streets are the usual, very high, skim-the-plutocrats-first prices. Just like the LEDs, 240Hz, etc.

[E-Stat]

You will always have filmmakers that use technology in a flattering effective way, and others in a gross, gimmicky and distracting kind of way.
I guess some things never change. I first saw the potential of the medium with one of the "real" IMAX format films about the undersea kelp forests off the California coast. The realism was spooky. :)

rw

[Woochifer]

Hmm maybe you didn't get the humour - but boobies in 3D - c'mon people work with me here.

Uh, porn in 3D involves more than just them boobies shootin' out of the screen! :eek:

I would know since I've actually seen a 3D porn flick before. This was one of those cheesy productions from the 70s using the old blue/red glasses and it developed a cult following with the midnight movie crowd. Now THAT was the face of fear -- a midnight audience full of drunk college students collectively screaming "DUCK!" when the money shot's about to get pointed towards the camera!

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Uh, porn in 3D involves more than just them boobies shootin' out of the screen! :eek:

I would know since I've actually seen a 3D porn flick before. This was one of those cheesy productions from the 70s using the old blue/red glasses and it developed a cult following with the midnight movie crowd. Now THAT was the face of fear -- a midnight audience full of drunk college students collectively screaming "DUCK!" when the money shot's about to get pointed towards the camera!

LOLOLOLOLOLOL....er....ewwwwwwww!!!!!

[poppachubby]

Hmm maybe you didn't get the humour - but boobies in 3D - c'mon people work with me here.


Dude I was pushin for porn back on page 2...where were you?