Outguess Coop: The Academy Awards, Sunday, February 22, 2009

[Gerald Cooperberg]

Haha, no, I don't really think I'm Ebert... but I've seen enough of the nominated films this year to feel like I'm making some informed predictions. Go ahead and prove me wrong! If anyone wants to do some non-monetary wagering, I'm open to interesting offers.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

* Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” (Overture Films)
* Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
* Sean Penn in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

I've seen: All of the nominated films.
My prediction: Both of the lead acting categories this year could be more competetive than the buzz suggests... a lot of people have been drawn to Mickey Rourke's redemptive turn in The Wrestler-- in which he plays himself in many ways (and poignantly), but my gut feeling keeps coming back to Sean Penn's totally immersive performance as Harvey Milk.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

* Josh Brolin in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder” (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
* Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.)
* Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

I've seen: All of the nominated films.
My prediction: Heath Ledger, Heath Ledger, Heath Ledger.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

* Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Angelina Jolie in “Changeling” (Universal)
* Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Kate Winslet in “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)

I've seen: All of the nominated films.
My prediction: A tossup, although I think that pretty even voting totals for all of the nominees will allow Kate Winslet to eke out a win as many have prognosticated.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

* Amy Adams in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (The Weinstein Company)
* Viola Davis in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

I've seen: All of the nominated films.
My prediction: Viola Davis went toe-to-toe with Meryl Streep in one of the most riveting scenes in Doubt-- the other actresses in this category should be no problem.

Best animated feature film of the year

* “Bolt” (Walt Disney), Chris Williams and Byron Howard
* “Kung Fu Panda” (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount), John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Andrew Stanton

I've seen: Kung Fu Panda, WALL•E
My prediction: WALL•E is simply a different class of film than the other nominees.

Best documentary feature

* “The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)” (Cinema Guild), A Pandinlao Films Production, Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath
* “Encounters at the End of the World” (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment), A Creative Differences Production, Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser
* “The Garden” A Black Valley Films Production, Scott Hamilton Kennedy
* “Man on Wire” (Magnolia Pictures), A Wall to Wall Production, James Marsh and Simon Chinn
* “Trouble the Water” (Zeitgeist Films), An Elsewhere Films Production, Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

I've seen: Encounters at the End of the World, Man on Wire
My prediction: I'm a bit handicapped in this one, but I might as well show some love for the lyrical beauty of Man on Wire. I've also heard some late buzz for Trouble the Water, so we'll see.

Best foreign language film of the year

* “The Baader Meinhof Complex” A Constantin Film Production, Germany
* “The Class” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haut et Court Production, France
* “Departures” (Regent Releasing), A Departures Film Partners Production, Japan
* “Revanche” (Janus Films), A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production, Austria
* “Waltz with Bashir” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production, Israel

I've seen: Revanche, Waltz With Bashir, seeing The Class in the next couple of days
My prediction: OUt of the two that I've seen the strange and mesmerizing Waltz With Bashir would take the crown, but I'm going to play a hunch and say The Class.

Adapted screenplay

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
* “Doubt” (Miramax), Written by John Patrick Shanley
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Screenplay by Peter Morgan
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Hare
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

I've seen: All of the nominated films.
My prediction: If Benjamin Button wins this award, the Academy will have lost the last shred of their credibility. Hopefully Simon Beaufoy walks away with it for Slumdog Millionaire instead.

Original screenplay

* “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Courtney Hunt
* “Happy-Go-Lucky” (Miramax), Written by Mike Leigh
* “In Bruges” (Focus Features), Written by Martin McDonagh
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Written by Dustin Lance Black
* “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

I've seen: All of the nominated films.
My prediction: Probably the heavy hitter Milk takes the award here, but I'd be surprised and delighted to see it go to Martin McDonagh for In Bruges.

Achievement in directing

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Fincher
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Ron Howard
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Gus Van Sant
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Stephen Daldry
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle

I've seen: All of the nominated films.
My prediction: Late backlash notwithstanding, Danny Boyle made a broadly appealing film in a difficult location that was theoretically hard to market, so I think he will be recognized here.

Best motion picture of the year

* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), A Kennedy/Marshall Production, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), A Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production,Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers
* “Milk” (Focus Features), A Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production, Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), A Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production, Nominees to be determined
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), A Celador Films Production,Christian Colson, Producer

I've seen: All of the nominated films.
My prediction: Slumdog, Milk, Slumdog, Milk, Slumdog, Milk.

It will also be interesting to see whether The Dark Knight or Benjamin Button walks away with more of the technical awards. Both are marvels. I'm going to go see the Oscar-nominated short films this weekend, so perhaps I will weigh in with some predictions on those as well.

-Coop

[Rich-n-Texas]

Very informative post Coop. Unfortunately I've only seen "Dark Knight"; Heath gets my Best Supporting Actor vote as well, but hopefully I'll get one or two more in before the Awards. "...Benjamin Button" & "Frost/Nixon" have me curious.

[Kam]

ok this should be fun! Of all the nominees, i've barely seen anything. only Slumdog, Wall-E, Bolt, Kungfu Panda, Doubt and Dark Knight. My most personally educated guess is for best animated feature, but i'm gonna guess anyway based on what i think the academy will do, i put an (x) next to my ones that will determine if i outguess the Coop! (i agree with a lot of your choices)

best actor: sean penn
best actress: meryl streep (x) (although if not meryl, it will go to kate, it's two horse race here)
best supporting actor: heath ledger
best supporting actress: amy adams (x) (toss up here, voting has been all over the place with the academy having different nominees in the actress category than the other guilds)
best animated: wall-E
best documentary feature: man on wire
best foreign language: waltz with bashir (x)
adapted screenplay: slumdog
original screenplay: milk
director: danny boyle
motion picture: slumdog (x)

[Sugar Beats]

I'll give it a shot, but haven't seen much either! I've seen "The Reader, Curious Case of BB, Dark Knight, Kung Fu Panda, and I guess that's it! I want to see Rachel getting married, The changeling & Doubt, but haven't had time!!



best actor: sean penn
best actress: Kate Winslet (although meryl,I'm sure is in the running)
best supporting actor: heath ledger
best supporting actress: amy adams (toss up here,
best animated: wall-E (although I'm secretly routing for Kung Fu panda, my son loves that show!)
best documentary feature: man on wire ???
best foreign language: waltz with bashir
adapted screenplay: slumdog/The reader?
original screenplay: milk
director: danny boyle or maybe Stephen?
motion picture: slumdog (which I have yet to see)


So who knows? We'll see! I really love to watch the red carpet before the show to see what everyone is wearing and sigh....

My favorite hunk, Hugh Jackman is hosting. Yea... oh joy! Bliss! Yum!
I'd watch Australia again just to see that scene w/ him under the water again & would probably pause it there for awhile!! Did anyone else see those abs?!! Amazing!!!

sorry guess I kinda got off track!

[Rich-n-Texas]

I'm happy. Heath got his Oscar. The rest... just doesn't matter.

[JohnMichael]

I am pleased that Sean Penn won best actor for his portrayal of Harvey Milk.

[Rich-n-Texas]

YO!

Where is everybody?

DISCUSS!!!

[MasterCylinder]

I've only seen DARK KNIGHT and BEJAMIN BUTTON.
Both were entertaining but I was not overly impressed with either one.
Now I want to see SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE and THE READER.


With which should I start ? And why ?

[Sugar Beats]

I saw "The Reader" and Kate deserves every award she gets! She was amazing in that. I totally want to see Slumdog now!

Also the Changeling & Doubt, those are on my list as well.

[bobsticks]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” will win everything if only because the Academy has a love affair with films sporting dumbass names.

[bobsticks]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” will win everything if only because the Academy has a love affair with films sporting dumbass names.

See, that's what I get for living under a rock, lol.

[Sugar Beats]

See, that's what I get for living under a rock, lol.

Yea, Where the heck have you been? I guess you don't have cable under that rock?

It was "Slumdog" almost all the way...

[Sugar Beats]

best actor: sean penn
best actress: Kate Winslet (although meryl,I'm sure is in the running)
best supporting actor: heath ledger
best supporting actress: amy adams (toss up here,
best animated: wall-E (although I'm secretly routing for Kung Fu panda, my son loves that show!)
best documentary feature: man on wire ???
best foreign language: waltz with bashir
adapted screenplay: slumdog/The reader?
original screenplay: milk
director: danny boyle or maybe Stephen?
motion picture: slumdog (which I have yet to see)




Hey! I didn't realize how well I did, until I just went back and reviewed my answers! Not bad.

Coop, did you get them all?

[Gerald Cooperberg]

I didn't, Ms. Beats. I had a few happy moments during the ceremony, though-- Philip Petit did not disappoint in accepting the award for Man on Wire, Sean Penn walked home with another Oscar, James Franco reprised his character in Pineapple Express to humorous effect, and Dustin Lance Black inspired with his fearlessness. I wished that there were more clips for the acting awards (they brought out past legends to praise the performances but didn't show us what was being praised) and thought that although Ledger's family accepting his award was sweet, the show could've done more to show why he was such a respected talent as well as a loved human being. All in all, though, not a bad show.

-Coop

[Gerald Cooperberg]

Oh, and I guess now I really want to see Departures, if it's even better than Waltz With Bashir, Revanche, and The Class (all of which were among my favorites of the year).

-Coop