I Predict HD DVD Players Will Be A Failure for the first 3 Years

[EdwardGein]

I just read that they expect the initial HD DVD players to be above $1,000. I got to laugh at this. There is no way most middle income people or below are going to spend that kind of money on a DVD player when they can get a decent one for $50 or so that shows perfectly good pictures. I really think it is going to be a commercial disaster and until they price them below $200 which given the way electronic devices get better and progressively cheaper year in and year out, I think will be at least 4 years away. I know I initially spend about $1,000 around 1977 for one of the first VCR's but at the time it was an innovation that changed lifestyles. I also spent $650 for a HiFi VCR that one could get for $50 now. I just can't seeing laying out anything over $250 for a DVD player that plays HD given the excellent quality results of normal DVD players today.

[robert393]

I just read that they expect the initial HD DVD players to be above $1,000.

Expected rollout price for PS3 (with Blu-Ray) is $500.

There is no way most middle income people or below are going to spend that kind of money on a DVD player when they can get a decent one for $50 or so that shows perfectly good pictures.

They can't get an HD DVD player for $50, so you are not comparing apples-to-apples.

I initially spend about $1,000 around 1977 for one of the first VCR's

Convert that $1000 (from '77) into today's dollars and it would be a meer maybe $300. So, getting a PS3 (with Blu-Ray) for $500 doesn't sound like that much.

I just can't seeing laying out anything over $250 for a DVD player that plays HD given the excellent quality results of normal DVD players today.

HD DVD has more than 2-times the resolution of DVD. A quote from this article does a good job of explaining the difference: "The best analogy is the the comparision of 480p to HDTV to the comparison of the inferior video quality VHS to that of DVD. Or, putting it another way, VHS has half the resolution of DVD and DVD is half the resolution of HDTV."

I'm not doubting that the commercial success of HD DVD will be a bit slow in coming, but remembering that that we only have 3-yrs until the Federal mandate requiring HDTV, HD DVD will no doubt become the standard. Of course I would not be surprised to see VOD-HD getting it's share of the HD-DVD market by then too?

480i (and p) is old technology. If you think it looks great, wait 'till you see HD in all it's glory. It makes 480i (or p) look pretty disgusting.

Robert

[EdwardGein]

If your right about the $500 price, I totally rescind what I said. However, according to USA Today or was it the LA Times, I think in an article today, they stated categorically that the lowest HD DVD player would be above $1,000 and obviously didn't mention your $500 price.
If the article was in the LA Times (I don't remember which, sorry), then I'd give it less credibility. This is the same newspaper, I kid you not, that last Friday, had a big story on the front page of the newspaper, about some Los Angeles guy who they thought might have broken a record for going to movies in a year- aproximately 175 or so, big F ing deal, I find it hard to think that someone who goes to an average of 3 movies a week for a year is setting a record!

[HT BUFF]

Quick question here, after people spending thousands $ on building a massive DVD collection over the past 5 years do these manufacturers honestly believe we are all going to run out and replace
this collection? I can't see it happening. This is why the SACD format failed.

[robert393]

Quick question here, after people spending thousands $ on building a massive DVD collection over the past 5 years do these manufacturers honestly believe we are all going to run out and replace
this collection?

Not many are going to replace it all at one time. I'm sure not. But will I (and many others) start buying the new format with new movies and eventually replace some of our favorite movies with the new format? Sure! Did you (an deverybody else) replace your VCR collection and upgrade to DVD over time?

This is why the SACD format failed.

SACD failed? Wow! Now that's news. Better tell the recording industry, because they are kicking-out more titles everday, and the consumers are enjoying the uncompressed sound.

Robert

[noddin0ff]

Who's replacing? HD DVD will be backward compatible. Plus everything will likely scale up you DVD 480i signal so they'll look better anyway. Not HD, but still better. Win-win.

[Eric Z]

Interesting conversation. I somewhat agree with Ed regarding this. The great great majority are very happy with DVDs, so why change to something that is only going to increase the picture and sound. I know, I know- everyone here is going to say, "Those are the main reasons I will buy an HD-DVD player!" The jump from VHS to SD DVD I feel is bigger than the jump from SD DVD to HD DVD. I'm not talking about the pic/sound quality; I'm talking about the disc vs tape format and the convenience of skipping chapters with a click of a button and not needing to rewind/fast forward a darn tape. Also, the durability of a disc vs a tape.

I'm very interested to see how well HD DVDs will be marketed and how the general public responds. Even though SD DVD players dropped in price much much faster than VCRs back in the day, it still took some time for it to be affordable to the general public. And I feel affordable for the general public is less than $250.

[recoveryone]

whats all this sound upgrade stuff, the PQ will increse but I haven't heard anything above DTS/DD yet so what is this higher level sound format you guys are refering too.

[Eric Z]

good point, recoveryone- that's my fault. i was actually thinking about the sound quality of HDTV vs just watching the TV- like how you can get 5.1 with HD watching football, but with my SDTV, it's just basic sound for me. you're right, same sound as my current DVDs now.

I wonder what's next after DD/DTS- something else that would cause us to spend more,

[edtyct]

Both Dolby and DTS have hi res, nonlossy formats waiting in the wings for hi def video disks to arrive. I won't rehash them. They provide yet another opportunity for those who are happy with the current versions to stand their ground. I hate to say it, but history is littered with people who have thought, for better or worse, that a particular instantiation of "progress" was a waste of their time and/or money. For better or worse, they have the footprints on their backs to show just how deterred progress was by their staunch resistance. Regardless of how long any of us may hold out, change will come. Early adopters always seem to crawl out of the wordwork, regardless of how strong the opposition is, and manufacturers count on them. They know, as well as we do, that not everyone has the same attitude toward innovation. Personally, if most of my current music collection were available in SA-CD, I'd jump at the chance to replace it--even if resources forced me to pace myself. I'd be more selective about films, but certain ones positively scream to me for higher resolution. I enjoy the rush of seeing and hearing my favorite things (pun with Coltrane happily acknowledged) presented in better form.

Ed

[Eric Z]

Good points, Ed! I know I will eventually not be able to avoid the HD world as much as I am now. It's odd because I have the money in the bank waiting for an HDTV, but it's just too early for me to get on the boat. I think this is why my wife if always frustrated when it takes me so long to make a purchase- she says I comparison shop too much

[recoveryone]

good point, recoveryone- that's my fault. i was actually thinking about the sound quality of HDTV vs just watching the TV- like how you can get 5.1 with HD watching football, but with my SDTV, it's just basic sound for me. you're right, same sound as my current DVDs now.

I wonder what's next after DD/DTS- something else that would cause us to spend more,

No problem Z, I thought maybe I may have missed somthing new coming out. But I assumed that you had HD, so when you get it you'll know the great sound you get watching a live game, I feel football is the best in 5.1 as you can hear the crowd the stadium announcer and the commentators coming from all around you. Primetime shows are ok, but they are not produce to fully use surround sound. Now if the SciFi channel came in HD 5.1 that would be awesome due that they show they kind of shows that would benefit from that format. The new DVD format would be very successful if it would be backwards compatible, so there would be no need to replace a nice collection of DVD's

[Eric Z]

I think I would most enjoy sports in HD- that's especially what I'm looking forward to. I heard football (as you said) is great and even baseball in HD 5.1 is fantastic.

I look forward to it sometime in the future. I first have to rearrange my furniture where I want the HD- I bought a huge sectional for my family room (where we watch all of the movies) that only fits one way in that room- it works well for a 32" SDTV, but not sure how it will be with a widescreen. Then, I'm thinking about getting one in the main living room (where everyone congregates)- I can do that, but then I need to do something with my big entertainment center that only fits SDTVs- decisions, decisions.

[recoveryone]

I think I would most enjoy sports in HD- that's especially what I'm looking forward to. I heard football (as you said) is great and even baseball in HD 5.1 is fantastic.

I look forward to it sometime in the future. I first have to rearrange my furniture where I want the HD- I bought a huge sectional for my family room (where we watch all of the movies) that only fits one way in that room- it works well for a 32" SDTV, but not sure how it will be with a widescreen. Then, I'm thinking about getting one in the main living room (where everyone congregates)- I can do that, but then I need to do something with my big entertainment center that only fits SDTVs- decisions, decisions.

Don't forget you can go with a LCD/DLP and hang it on the wall to save space

[L.J.]

I think I would most enjoy sports in HD- that's especially what I'm looking forward to. I heard football (as you said) is great and even baseball in HD 5.1 is fantastic.

It is!! I have a very hard time watching a game in SD. As a matter of fact, I can't remember the last time I watched a game in SD. The word spoiled comes to mind.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Hey Rob,
SACD and DVD-A are a complete failure. They may still be turning out titles, but they are at a rate that is 1/10 of what it used to be. DSD(the bitstream of SACD) is not even in the spec's for BluRay.

When DVD players first came out, they were over a $1000. My toshiba costs about $1100. The price rapidly came down over the years as DVD became widely except by everyone.

The new HD format have bigger issues. There was no competition to the DVD, but there will be between these two formats. As long as they both go at it, prices will remain very high for both players. Sony may have a price advantage if they include BluRay in PS3. However it is VERY likely that HD-DVD will end up in the next version of Xbox

The copy protection schemes, and lack of HD output on the component video input has completely freaked out early adopters. Talk of having to hook your player to a phone line or internet to "confirm authenticity" of the disc, and having the ability to defeat your players ability to play a disc is a MAJOR turn off, at least for me.

On a technical basis I think Sony has beat out Toshiba. But they have done this before with beta. However the studio are really turned on with the potential capacity of BluRay at 200G for a four layer disc, that is something that HD-DVD cannot touch. Toshiba is already talking about compressing video more to increase capacity, Sony has no such issues.

I have heard both new audio formats, but I question the need for either except as backward compatibility with regular DVD. With the space available you can put 8 channels of PCM tracks on each movie and skip DD and Dts altogether. Don't get me wrong, both of the lossless formats sound terrific, but if they are loseless, then why not just use the PCM encoding instead? I know alot of people that will be sitting on the fence for a while to see were this dogfight goes before investing a dime into either format.

[kexodusc]

Hey Rob,
I know alot of people that will be sitting on the fence for a while to see were this dogfight goes before investing a dime into either format.

I for one intend to build a giant fence and hide behind it. If one doesn't come crashing violently through with overwhelming momentum, I don't think I'll be buying either.

Format wars = stupid

[EdwardGein]

In regards to what happened to people with VHS Collections, for me personally, I converted my VHS Tapes to DVD+R discs via a DVD Recorder at a pretty inexpensive amount.

In fairness to this argument, I spent way over $10,000 over time, replacing my then vinyl collection with new CD's.

[EdwardGein]

I may be misinterpreting something here but HDTV has nothing to do with 5.1 sound. As long as your getting digital TV as opposed to HDTV from you cable or Satellite company and have an optical cable & a receiver, you can get 5.1 sound.

[HT BUFF]

I couldn't agree with you more regarding the failure of SACD & DVD-A, When I go into a store and ask the clerk where the SACD'S are they say "what the hell is that"?
These formats have been on the market for 3-4 years and still nothing.

[Eric Z]

EG- I didn't know you can get DD or DTS 5.1 through digital cable or satellite. I don't have dig cable so that why I probably didn't know. What programs are in 5.1? A lot? Does ESPN come in 5.1 without HDTV?

[EdwardGein]

I get my cable TV service through Time Warner & I'm assuming everything I get from Time Warner is applicable through other Cable & Satellite companies as well. In regards to 5.1 sound, you just need to have digital service to get it for which HD is not required (if you get HD your getting digital service anyway). To get 5.1 sound through your Digital Cable Service, all you need is a fiber optics cable & a 5.1 receiver & either a plain digital cable box or an (HD) DVR that includes a built in digital cable box (I'm not wording this last part that well). Shows like CSI, Medium, Without A trace & HBO & Showtime movies broadcast in 5.1, usually a show will say at the beginning of the episode if its in 5.1. Obviously movies and TV shows that were filmed before 5.1 sound came into existence are not broadcast in 5.1 sound (unless & I doubt this, they were rechanneled into "phoney 5.1 sound" the way mono records were rechanneled into stereo). I'm pretty sure ESPN broadcasts their games in 5.1 but you'll have to verify that from someone else. I will say, if you're a sports freak, you definately should get HD (ESPN is broadcast in HD but through a slightly more expensive HD package on cable). I'd also recommend for around $25 on Ebay, getting a glass fiber optics cable as from my personal experience it produces better & strong TV audio, but only use this for your TV, do not use a Glass Optics cable for your DVD or CD, as the sound is too strong.

[recoveryone]

EG- I didn't know you can get DD or DTS 5.1 through digital cable or satellite. I don't have dig cable so that why I probably didn't know. What programs are in 5.1? A lot? Does ESPN come in 5.1 without HDTV?

Part of what HDTV is, is the sound. True HD is suppose to be supported by 5.1 sound but many slide around that by just providing a digital sound format that could be anything from 5.1 to 1.0 most newer cable/sat boxes have either a toslink or coax output on the back but you need to find out if your provider is sending out a digital sound signal. ESPN by my provider (Aldelphia) comes HD/DD Stereo. Which is funny cuz that many of my normal SD channels are now being broadcast w/DD surround (L/R/SR). Go figure that one. Most of your primetime shows that are HD are 5.1. Most of all this comes down to what your provder is offering. Just about every Channel out there is being broadcast in either HD or Digital (EDTV) but your provider chooses to offer what they feel is best for your area. EG gets TNT in HD from his provider, but I do not. Mine offers the Discovery channel in HD, but not in my area?????? so its a mix bag of good and so so stuff you can get from any provider out there, even sat.

[EdwardGein]

TNT is a joke in HD because the older shows looked distorted as they're horribly stretched. I don't get UPN & WB in HD but apparently alot of people on Cable & Satellite don't get those as well. I'd double check with your cable or satellite company as to 5.1 sound, HD & other things, as half the people at these places don't have the right info and are hopelessly unaware. IE, the Scientific Atlanta 8000 DVR doesn not get 5.1 sound and does not let you make external DVD & VHS copies because Time Warner or someone never programmed them to do so but the 8300 model does. Unless you specifically demand the 8300 model they'll dump the 8000 model on you, etc. The point is don't take just one person's statement on services/features as gospal, and that includes mine too, but verify things with serveral people at these companies and/or who get the service.

[paul_pci]

EG- I didn't know you can get DD or DTS 5.1 through digital cable or satellite. I don't have dig cable so that why I probably didn't know. What programs are in 5.1? A lot? Does ESPN come in 5.1 without HDTV?

I have Direct TV with a digital connection, non HD service, and two HBO, two Starz, and a few Showtime channels carry 5.1 audio. And from what I've read, some, but not all, HD programming is 5.1, but since we don't have HD direct tv (yet), I cannot comment further.