Blu-ray Already Declaring Victory

[Woochifer]

Kind of building on the discussion already in progress on the Home Theater board.

One of the more prominent and boastful pronouncements coming out of CES a few weeks ago was the Blu-Ray Association's declaration of victory over HD-DVD. At the time I thought it was ridiculous and very premature to announce something like that before the HD disc formats have even had two product cycles. Plus, that kind of arrogance could backfire really badly if projections don't pan out.

But, it turns out that the Blu-ray group's statements might simply reflect how the market dynamics have actually shaped up -- with all signs pointing towards Blu-ray. The Digital Bits and Home Media Retailing are reporting that the sales figures now put Blu-ray solidly in the lead; and with all of the major studios except Universal supporting Blu-ray, the format will likely widen this lead.

As problematic as the PS3 launch has been, it has helped swing the market momentum decidedly in Blu-ray's favor. Worldwide shipments for the PS3 have already eclipsed Toshiba's HD-DVD player shipments by more than 10-to-1 (this does not include sales for other Blu-ray players or the HD-DVD Xbox360 add-on), and more than 70% of surveyed PS3 buyers intend to buy Blu-ray discs.

By December, Blu-ray disc sales had passed HD-DVD. By January 7, Blu-ray discs were outselling HD-DVDs by 2-to-1. By January 14, the sales disparity was approaching 3-to-1.

Home Media Retailing interviewed a market analyst who indicated that he would be very surprised if this format war is not over by mid-2008. His reasoning is that by that time market penetration for HD disc players might be 5-6%, but 80% of those players will be Blu-ray because of the PS3.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_id=10208

# HM: So it could be an all Blu-ray high-def market in just a couple of years?

# Bottoms: I would be absolutely amazed if the format war goes on much further than mid-2008. If you look at what happened in 2006, 80% of what has sold through is Blu-ray. In 2007, [Blu-ray] will be at least that percentage again, but it won’t be a million players we’re talking about. We’re probably looking at something like 8 million units selling through this year across all product types and formats, so by the end of 2007, moving into 2008, it’s possible that 5% or 6% of U.S. homes will be owning a high-definition playback device. And about 80% of those devices will be Blu-ray.

I also think that the Blu-ray's more extensive studio support will increasingly become an issue. The Blu-Ray Association has pointed out that among last year's top 20 DVD titles, 19 of them are already out or will soon come out on Blu-ray and 16 of these titles are exclusive to Blu-ray. In contrast, 4 of last year's top 20 DVD titles are out or will come out on HD-DVD, and only 1 of these titles is exclusive to HD-DVD. The Digital Bits has looked over the 2007 release schedule, and so far Blu-ray's announced titles far outpace what HD-DVD has.

Some HD-DVD enthusiasts had hoped that one of the studios exclusively in the Blu-ray camp would announce at CES that they would start releasing titles in both formats, but that announcement never came. And in fact, a representative from Fox indicated at CES that in their view, the format war was "in its final phases." Not exactly a sign that Fox will start issuing HD-DVDs anytime soon.

Warner has tried to straddle both camps with simultaneous releases in both formats and its recently announced Total HD dual-format disc. While that might succeed in propping HD-DVD up for the time being, I think Toshiba's end game with HD-DVD was never about winning outright over Blu-ray, but in extending the DVD format where Toshiba and Warner hold the patents. All they have to do is create enough uncertainty in the market to force a compromise of some sort, whether it's a dual-format disc or a dual-format player. The Home Media Retailing article seems to indicate as much.

# HM: Does that mean that both formats could possibly exist simultaneously for some years to come if HD DVD companies dig in their heels?

# Bottoms: We believe by the end of the year, we will see one format start to dominate. At the moment all the cards are stacked in favor of Blu-ray coming out on top. In reality, the only companies holding on to HD DVD are Toshiba and Universal and, yes, it will be a difficult pill for them to swallow to switch to Blu-ray. But it was a difficult pill for Sony to swallow when they had to start making VHS machines [after Betamax failed]. It will probably be easier for Universal because they don’t have any real financial incentive to keep HD DVD going. Toshiba has got a strong vested interest in prolonging the life of the DVD format, and that’s what HD DVD is all about. It’s basically extending the DVD format as long as you can take it.

Indeed it's still early in this format war, but Blu-ray's built-in structural advantages with the PS3 and the studio support are starting to take shape and will likely be very difficult for HD-DVD to overcome. It's interesting that a lot of the home theater enthusiasts have been decidely riding the HD-DVD bandwagon, because it was first to market, carried a very reasonable price, and had better-than-expected performance once the early bugs were worked out. Blu-ray was hampered by some poorly done titles and an overpriced and underperforming player at the outset. That plus an inherent distrust of Sony by a lot of people seemed to give HD-DVD an early heads up. But, with the PS3 turning out to be a more than capable Blu-ray player, and a full complement of new players and titles slated for 2007, it seems that Blu-ray has gotten past its early problems

Even though HD-DVD has engendered a lot of goodwill among home theater enthusiasts, I just don't see how the format can win out over Blu-ray. The best it can do at this point is force the market towards dual format approaches, or stay alive by slogging along as an entry level niche format. That same Home Media Retailing article projects that HD-DVD players will remain about $100 cheaper than Blu-ray, and will likely hit the $300 or even $200 price point by this time next year. The question though is what those HD-DVD players will have to play other than titles from Universal and porn producers?

[PeruvianSkies]

My personal take after viewing dozens of titles from both parties is that they will more than likely co-exist similar to DVD-A and SACD. Although I personally have seen better titles and quality on HD-DVD. For example here are the absolutely KEY TITLES:

THE SEARCHERS
GRAND PRIX (70mm film in HD)
BATMAN BEGINS (one of the best for sound)
CASABLANCA
Mutiny on the Bounty

[Mr Peabody]

It would seem that the PS3 would skew the claim that Blu ray makes since it's a game rather than a stand alone disc player. I'd think that some people, or most, bought the PS3 without even thinking of playing HD movies. If the PS3 was out of the picture wouldn't sales be about even?

Like mentioned the movie studios don't have an investment, so getting them to sell some titles to HD-DVD isn't anything a little cash couldn't cure. It is interesting how the whole re-tooling for Blu ray was supposed to be an issue yet they have more software sales.

Just playing devil's advocate, I personaly wish one would win so I can get me one some day. I just hope they continue to be backward compatible with DVD. I still have VHS laying around. It's going to be time to weed to make room. The cassettes and deck had to go some time back because when it came down to listening I just could never listen to inferior sound anymore with my CD player there.

[Robert-The-Rambler]

It would seem that the PS3 would skew the claim that Blu ray makes since it's a game rather than a stand alone disc player. I'd think that some people, or most, bought the PS3 without even thinking of playing HD movies. If the PS3 was out of the picture wouldn't sales be about even?

Like mentioned the movie studios don't have an investment, so getting them to sell some titles to HD-DVD isn't anything a little cash couldn't cure. It is interesting how the whole re-tooling for Blu ray was supposed to be an issue yet they have more software sales.

Just playing devil's advocate, I personaly wish one would win so I can get me one some day. I just hope they continue to be backward compatible with DVD. I still have VHS laying around. It's going to be time to weed to make room. The cassettes and deck had to go some time back because when it came down to listening I just could never listen to inferior sound anymore with my CD player there.

How many people who buy a Playstation 3 are even thinking about BLU-RAY? I'm curious as to how the percentage of use will breakdown for people with PS3s. Either way I really don't care who wins as long as in the end we wind up with a cost effective way to view High Definition movies. I do think it is too soon to declare victory until one side gives up.

[kexodusc]

How many people who buy a Playstation 3 are even thinking about BLU-RAY?

You can bet a significant amount. When I finally buy an XBox 360 or PS3, the HD player will weigh heavily on my decision. I'm amazed at how many XBOX owners played DVD's with them. The reason it isn't more was simple - the cost of getting a dedicated DVD player wasn't all that much. Not so with HD-DVD and BluRay. Not to mention PS3 does the job rather well.

Curiosity will lead many PS3 owners to 1 or 2 BluRay discs alone. Look on any web forum, in any magazine article, or any Sony marketing material, and the BluRay playing is front and center. People know what they're getting in to. The performance being higher than DVD quality should keep people buying discs for awhile. The question isnt' whether consumers buy PS3 for BluRay purposes, but rather, will people who already have a PS3 buy an HD-DVD player or additional BluRay player to satisfy their HD needs? The majority probably won't for quite some time, instead they'll build their BluRay libraries up and enjoy HD video until better, dediated BluRay players are cheap. That will lead to a far larger demand for BluRay discs than HD-DVD's. It doesn't matter what proportion of BluRay players are PS3 or dedicated players, only that the demand for BluRay is higher than HD-DVD because of it.

Do not dismiss the power of herd-mentality among consumers. As Wooch mentioned, the studios have largely held to their guns, contrary to what I thought would happen. If 16 of the top 20 demanded movies to be sold this year are exclusive to BluRay, then the demand for BluRay will be more. If BluRay is releasing more blockbuster titles than HD-DVD in the future, the software demand and sales discrepancy should continue to grow in favor of BluRay. Consumers and retailers aren't oblivious to this. What do you think the first question is out every buyer's mouth in BestBuy when they're looking at BluRay and HD-DVD..."So, what's selling more?" "Who's winning?". If the answer is BluRay early on, that will heavily influence decisions. Nobody wants to buy a loser. People will see the BluRay and HD-DVD sections - if BluRay has more, people will notice. So will retailers. They'll start siding with the winner too. Even the casual article in a local newspaper, internet site, or 30 second TV spot that mentions BluRay leading (like Wooch's HM article that mentioned 80%) will influence decisions. Follow the leader...herd mentality...

Most people who buy PS3's aren't 12 year old kids - their media savvy 18-40 year olds. I think we all may have underestimated Sony on this one, myself included. Everyone pretty much expected a close race to continue indefinitely, dragging on, or for HD-DVD to slowly pull ahead because of price advantages. Nobody ever thought BluRay would be approaching a 3-to-1 sales advantage over HD-DVD this early.

By no means is this over yet, but it's definitely significant.

[GMichael]

I hope it is decided soon. This fence is killing my butt.

[Woochifer]

It would seem that the PS3 would skew the claim that Blu ray makes since it's a game rather than a stand alone disc player. I'd think that some people, or most, bought the PS3 without even thinking of playing HD movies. If the PS3 was out of the picture wouldn't sales be about even?

But, the thing is that you cannot separate the PS3 from the rest of the Blu-ray market, because thus far it has been the key to creating market momentum for the format. Sony wedded the Blu-ray format to the PS3 very early on, and while this shotgun pairing has created problems for Sony on the gaming side, it looks like Sony's gamble will pay off on the HD disc side. Sony was counting on the PS3 to flood the market with millions of Blu-ray players, and create a tidal wave effect that HD-DVD could not effectively counter.

Like you, I was skeptical as to how many PS3 owners would use the Blu-ray capability, but with million of players going into the market, it takes only a tiny minority of PS3 owners buying Blu-ray discs to create an insurmountable lead for the format, especially since Toshiba only sold 175,000 HD-DVD players last year.

But, it turns out that PS3 owners are buying Blu-ray discs. A survey of 10,000 PS3 owners indicated that 80% of them planned to purchase Blu-ray discs, and 75% of them plan to use the PS3 as their primary disc player.

That Home Media article indicated that after the PS3 went on the market, Blu-ray disc sales surged 700% and in less than a month the Blu-ray disc sales passed HD-DVD. In less than two months, Blu-ray's advantage was approaching 3-to-1. And that's with major production and supply chain problems for the PS3. What's going to happen if Sony succeeds in its plans to ship 6 million PS3s by the end of March?

In addition, several other Blu-ray players are ready to hit the market, and Blu-ray has already lined up a much bigger slate of disc releases for 2007.

The Betamax was already viewed as a floundering format even when it still held about 1/3 of the VCR market, and unlike HD-DVD, Beta was supported by all of the major studios.

Just playing devil's advocate, I personaly wish one would win so I can get me one some day. I just hope they continue to be backward compatible with DVD. I still have VHS laying around. It's going to be time to weed to make room. The cassettes and deck had to go some time back because when it came down to listening I just could never listen to inferior sound anymore with my CD player there.

I think the Blu-ray camp is going all out to win this format war, and playing to knock HD-DVD out as early as possible. They're trying to create a perception in the market that a Blu-ray victory is inevitable, and so far, nothing in the sales trends contradicts that perception. The studios don't want a format war, the retailers don't want it, and neither do consumers. I don't see that same play-to-win mentality from the HD-DVD side. Toshiba and Warner look like they're simply trying to extend the DVD format as long as possible, since their patents on the format are still in effect. HD-DVD seems like they're trying to force a compromise, rather than going all out to beat Blu-ray.

HD-DVD might yet succeed in forcing a coexistence with Blu-ray, but at this stage I don't think there's any way that format will come out on top.

[PeruvianSkies]

I think that what is being stated here is simply this...

Sony knows that it will make gaming sales, but it was able to kill two birds this time around by getting Blu ray a huge enough push early on, so that it quickly kills HD-DVD rather than prolong the battle. By prolonging the battle the competition has time to regain momentum, re-target an audience, and even do more advertising, but if Sony can quickly eliminate HD-DVD by driving the Blu ray sales through the roof than the studios have no choice but to go with Blu ray.

[Woochifer]

I think that what is being stated here is simply this...

Sony knows that it will make gaming sales, but it was able to kill two birds this time around by getting Blu ray a huge enough push early on, so that it quickly kills HD-DVD rather than prolong the battle. By prolonging the battle the competition has time to regain momentum, re-target an audience, and even do more advertising, but if Sony can quickly eliminate HD-DVD by driving the Blu ray sales through the roof than the studios have no choice but to go with Blu ray.

In a nutshell, yes. I think that Sony's decision to merge Blu-ray with the PS3 will cost them market share in the gaming market because it created production/development delays, and bumped up the console prices. But, in the long run, Blu-ray's probably the more strategically important initiative, so the Blu-ray Association's going all out to establish Blu-ray in the market and push HD-DVD aside as quickly as possible.

It's no accident that Warner and Paramount declared themselves "neutral" in the Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war after Sony announced that the PS3 would include Blu-ray. Before that time, the studios were evenly divided. Now, Universal's the lone hold out on the HD-DVD side. If Universal goes neutral, then it's over. Even if they don't, it might still be over if Sony sells 8 million PS3s in North America this year, as projected. Universal going neutral might not kill HD-DVD per se, but it would keep the format limited to less than half of the major studio output, while Blu-ray would have the entire studio release slate on its side. Betamax retained a market presence for more than 15 years, but its epitaph had already been signed a decade earlier.

In the long run, I think Sony's got its eye on much more than the HD video disc market with Blu-ray. They're also trying to establish Blu-ray as the new standard removable optical storage format for PCs and other devices, with the PS3 and Blu-ray video players serving as the key to seeding the market. Add-on Blu-ray burners are already on the market for PCs, while they've yet to come out for HD-DVD. By effectively relegating HD-DVD to also ran status on the home video side, they further solidify their prospects on the PC side.

Before the DVD came along, Sony was more ubiquitous in the PC market than even Microsoft because they had developed both the 3.5" floppy format and the CD-ROM/R/RW. If Blu-ray establishes a beach head in the home video market that carries over to the PC side, then Blu-ray will have paid off big time, regardless of how much market share they lose on the gaming side.

[PeruvianSkies]

Exactly!

[Mr Peabody]

I understand that a Blu-ray or HD-DVD movie costs about $30.00. Do you think the price will come down? If not, will the price keep HD movies a nitch market? I know you stated sales are growing but I'm not ready to pay that much for a movie. I don't think the average person wil either. I know many who copy DVD at, that, price. Maybe not the main reason, but I really think the price of SACD and DVD-A software, amongst lack of mainstream titles, put nails in their casket. I probably have more than 200 DVD's, maybe300 if I count all the animated movies I've bought the family I really cringe at seeing a more expensive format. I expect many of you to dismiss the price, but, you aren't average consumers. I'd really be interested to see what percentage of homes even have a HDTV today..

[PeruvianSkies]

Actually most of the HD-DVD's and Bluray discs on the market are around $20-$25 that I have seen, which is pretty competative with DVD in my opinion since most DVD's are about that as well. Of course, sometimes you catch certain DVD's on sale and I don't see many of the HD formats on sale. But in comparison to when DVD first came out and they were upwards of $40/ title and that was about 2x the cost of the same movie on VHS, than I think it's a steal. Keep also in mind that Laserdiscs were released with huge price tags and cost between $40-$60 for good titles.

While you may dread having to replace your collection of 300 DVD's with the new format, which I woudn't even think about right now, I think that they will go down in price as the market becomes more established.

[Mr Peabody]

$20.00 I could do. I doubt if I replace my DVD collection. I'd just start buying new movies in whatever format. I think it's about time to visit a mass market store to scope out some of this stuff. I might even get lucky enough to see what the Blu-ray picture looks like.

I can see it now, Lucas working on Star Wars HD, then I can have them in every format

[Woochifer]

I understand that a Blu-ray or HD-DVD movie costs about $30.00. Do you think the price will come down? If not, will the price keep HD movies a nitch market? I know you stated sales are growing but I'm not ready to pay that much for a movie. I don't think the average person wil either. I know many who copy DVD at, that, price. Maybe not the main reason, but I really think the price of SACD and DVD-A software, amongst lack of mainstream titles, put nails in their casket. I probably have more than 200 DVD's, maybe300 if I count all the animated movies I've bought the family I really cringe at seeing a more expensive format. I expect many of you to dismiss the price, but, you aren't average consumers. I'd really be interested to see what percentage of homes even have a HDTV today..

Actually, the prices I've seen are generally about $5 more than DVD, and some stores in my area (Fry's Electronics in particular) will do the discounted week-of-release pricing on Blu-ray and HD-DVD, with some releases going for $15.

If you look at the prices on SACD and DVD-A, they were and still are about on par with what new CDs cost. Cost has not been an issue for at least the past three years. Hybrid CD/SACD releases will typically cost no more than about $2 more than the CD-only version. SACD and DVD-A failed largely because the record companies never committed to it in full, never had a coherent strategy (i.e., the industry never standardized around the CD/SACD hybrid disc format), and had all kinds of idiotic restrictions that put off even the most dedicated early adopters (i.e., the digital output restrictions, lack of consistent bass management and delay timing, etc.).

Aside from this stupid format war, which I believe will come to an end by next year one way or another (either Blu-ray will become the standard or we'll see more dual-format discs and players), no such problems with HD-DVD and Blu-ray. HDMI connections now get around any problems with copy protection restrictions, and most major releases now come out on Blu-ray and/or HD-DVD not very long after the DVD, if not concurrently. All 20 of last year's best selling DVDs have come out or will soon come out on HD-DVD or Blu-ray (19 of them on Blu-ray). SACD and DVD-A never had that kind of support from the record companies.

As far as HDTV penetration goes, I read that Q4 2006 was huge. Before that time, HDTV penetration was less than one-fourth, and supposedly it's now approaching one-third of U.S. households. Heavy discounting by retailers led to a surge in HDTV sales that has continued into January (Super Bowl week has become the biggest single week for big screen TV sales).

[Mr Peabody]

On the Musicdirect and Acousticsound newsletters I receive, I don't remember seeing SACD or DVD-A below $20.00. I'm sure though price isn't as big of a factor as the other reasons you stated. I hope the war is soon resolved.

I would be surprised if 1/3 of U.S. households have a HDTV. Hardly anyone I've spoken to at work or anywhere have one. I am also surprised at the lack of knowledge on the subject. I have to admit though I don't know if I would have the knowledge either if I hadn't bought HD and learned by, doing, and of course, gaps filled in here at AR. Not to get off subject, but I've also developed a big distrust of the industry after falling for the false hype fed to me in the beginning of the whole upsampling/HDMI thing. So I do more research before buying now.

The market is about perfect for a HD movie launch though. It has been nearly two years since I switched back to cable and not ONE single HD channel has been added in that time. I see DirecTV advertising a big addition of HD channels so maybe something will break. I can't see the average person feeling any urgency or incentive to switch to HD at this point.

[Woochifer]

On the Musicdirect and Acousticsound newsletters I receive, I don't remember seeing SACD or DVD-A below $20.00. I'm sure though price isn't as big of a factor as the other reasons you stated. I hope the war is soon resolved.

Check Best Buy or Borders. Most of their SACDs and DVD-As cost right around $15-$18.

I would be surprised if 1/3 of U.S. households have a HDTV. Hardly anyone I've spoken to at work or anywhere have one. I am also surprised at the lack of knowledge on the subject. I have to admit though I don't know if I would have the knowledge either if I hadn't bought HD and learned by, doing, and of course, gaps filled in here at AR. Not to get off subject, but I've also developed a big distrust of the industry after falling for the false hype fed to me in the beginning of the whole upsampling/HDMI thing. So I do more research before buying now.

Like I said, the last quarter of 2006 created a huge sales surge for HDTV. The Black Friday doorbuster specials pushed the prices below $1,500 for brand name 42" models, and price competition throughout the holiday season kept prices low. In any given year, I recall that about 1/4 of households will buy a new TV, and by the end of last year, HDTVs came close to the majority of new TV purchases. If true, that alone potentially adds roughly 12% to the household penetration. At the start of last year, HDTV penetration was at 15%, and was still under 25% before the holiday season. I'm not sure the HDTV market market penetration has hit 1/3 just yet, but it would not surprise me if it has given how far the price points have dropped.

The complication with the TV market is more than just HDTV per se, it's the various approaches needed to make a flat panel or to get a screen size beyond ~36". Every approach for making the screen flatter or bigger entails some significant tradeoff. That's why I have yet to buy a HDTV.

I've been largely following the developments with LCD and plasma because I am looking to go with a flat panel, and it seems that the newer models address the various drawbacks with those designs. Plus, the implementations with upscaling and HDMI have improved from the earlier models.

The market is about perfect for a HD movie launch though. It has been nearly two years since I switched back to cable and not ONE single HD channel has been added in that time. I see DirecTV advertising a big addition of HD channels so maybe something will break. I can't see the average person feeling any urgency or incentive to switch to HD at this point.

Overall, 2007 is shaping up as the year that HD goes mainstream. I think HD is a case where the broadcast channels have been ahead of the curve, while the cable/satellite channels have lagged behind, but that situation's about to change. Directv will add 100 HD channels by the end of 2007, and this is great news for everybody, not just Directv subscribers, because that announcement included several channels that do not currently broadcast in HD such as CNN, MTV, A&E, History Channel, Weather Channel, FX, and TBS. You can bet that many those channels will get added to cable and Dish Network offerings as well, even if it means dropping other channels (such as the alternate time zone feeds for HBO and other channels) to accommodate the HD channels. Once these channels go HD, then I think it really opens up the demand for HDTV. And the rapidly plummeting HDTV prices add further incentive.

[Mr Peabody]

I wonder at what point cable/satelite will quite trying to sell HD as a separate package. My guess would be either at the end of the year when there are too many to keep separate or when NTSC finally gets turnd off.

[earwax]

I hear what your saying BUT Micosoft will NOT support Blu-ray for the computer world, the 10 billion dollar Porn world will not support Blu-ray because HD can be made on regular DVD machines and Blu-ray requires special Sony machines, a combo disk can now be made for both of them as well as combo player, and the xbox has a two hundred HD play. The Porn busness drove the VCR, the home computer and DVD to success. It's $10,000,000,000.00 is greater the the movie sells busness. Sony had it all with the Betamax. I know. I have a $700 unit because all Betamax movies were in Hi-Fi and VHS were in Stereo with AM radio sound quality. Blu-ray is quick out of the blocks but HD will have computer, porn and cheap production because it can be made on a DVD machine. I was a Blu-ray freak till I read somewhere else what I wrote above. Remember, in its day Betamax had every movie release too and first. One day there will be a recordable Blu-ray and HD. But Microsoft will support the HD so for computers millions will be sold. I dont see those numbers for home Blu-ray recording for stand alone units. Not many people buy DVD recorders that are not for computers. And XBOX has a $200 HD player at Walmart waiting for everyone. I think you could see the new duel disk Blu-ray/HD take off soon.

[Woochifer]

I wonder at what point cable/satelite will quite trying to sell HD as a separate package. My guess would be either at the end of the year when there are too many to keep separate or when NTSC finally gets turnd off.

I think that so long as the majority of TVs are standard definition, HD will be considered a "premium" service. Even after analog OTA broadcasts get switched off, cable comapnies will probably still continue to retransmit their basic service using the same analog infrastructure for a while.

The big trend right now with cable companies is to bundle their TV service with phone and broadband services. Would not surprise me to see HD thrown in as added incentive to get customers to switch into one of their package deals.

I hear what your saying BUT Micosoft will NOT support Blu-ray for the computer world, the 10 billion dollar Porn world will not support Blu-ray because HD can be made on regular DVD machines and Blu-ray requires special Sony machines, a combo disk can now be made for both of them as well as combo player, and the xbox has a two hundred HD play.

It won't matter what Microsoft does because the major PC integrators (pretty much all of the major players except Toshiba) are firmly behind Blu-ray. The hardware is already out, and so are the Windows drivers for those Blu-ray drives.

The porn world has hesitated thus far on Blu-ray only because Sony's duplicating facilities will not take adults-only jobs. But, that does not mean that other Blu-ray duplicating facilities won't do the same. I think the "no porn on Blu-ray" story has been blown way out of proportion. Another website found that Japanese porn is already out on Blu-ray, and supposedly American porn releases are due out on Blu-ray as well.

As more Blu-ray duplicators come on board, any cost advantage that HD-DVD currently has will likely narrow considerably.

The Porn busness drove the VCR, the home computer and DVD to success. It's $10,000,000,000.00 is greater the the movie sells busness. Sony had it all with the Betamax. I know. I have a $700 unit because all Betamax movies were in Hi-Fi and VHS were in Stereo with AM radio sound quality.

I personally think the whole VHS-won-because-of-porn story is more of a urban myth than anything. Betamax was the first to market, first with Hi-Fi sound, first with reverse scan, etc. It was a superior format, but Sony had two fatal flaws with Betamax -- 1) initial recording time of only 90 minutes in the standard mode (it took them years to finally make a tape with close to 2 hours); and 2) failure to recruit a coalition of other manufacturers to support the Betamax format. VHS was an inferior format that won out because it had a longer recording time, and unlike Sony, JVC (the VHS developer) made it simple and inexpensive for other manufacturers to license the format. Because nearly all of the consumer electronics giants were supporting VHS (Sony only had Sanyo and Zenith on its side), the format already had a 2-1 sales advantage before prerecorded movies were even available.

Also, Beta Hi-Fi did not come out until 1983 when the format had already been on the market for 8 years. VHS Hi-Fi came out only a year later, with sound quality equal to beta.

Blu-ray is quick out of the blocks but HD will have computer, porn and cheap production because it can be made on a DVD machine. I was a Blu-ray freak till I read somewhere else what I wrote above. Remember, in its day Betamax had every movie release too and first.

Keep in mind that Betamax had support from all of the studios and still failed. HD-DVD is not supported by half of the major studios, and 16 of last year's top 20 DVD titles are not coming out on HD-DVD.

A big part of Betamax's demise occurred at the retail level, where video stores had to divide their shelves into separate VHS and Beta sections. The VHS sections were always larger, and created a sense of inevitability that Beta would eventually fail. My parents had a Betamax, and had to buy a VHS machine less than three years later because they could no longer find the movies they wanted in Beta. HD-DVD's in a much worse position because the majority of the big titles aren't available at all, while most of the big titles are or will be released on Blu-ray.

One day there will be a recordable Blu-ray and HD.

Recordable Blu-ray drives are already available. Even LG's dual-format Blu-ray/HD-DVD drive is recordable only for Blu-ray.

But Microsoft will support the HD so for computers millions will be sold. I dont see those numbers for home Blu-ray recording for stand alone units. Not many people buy DVD recorders that are not for computers. And XBOX has a $200 HD player at Walmart waiting for everyone. I think you could see the new duel disk Blu-ray/HD take off soon.

It doesn't matter what Microsoft supports so long as manufacturers like Dell, HP, Apple, and Lenovo do support Blu-ray. Purposely tweaking Windows to lock out Blu-ray would run them afoul of all sorts of anti-trust laws, not just in the U.S. but especially in the E.U. where they've pushed back on Microsoft far more aggressively than the U.S. has.

The Xbox 360's HD-DVD add-on won't have much of an effect as long as it remains a separate add-on device that pushes the Xbox price above the equivalent for a PS3. The PS3 is having an effect because the Blu-ray drive is included with and integrated into every unit.

You might be right that the dual format players might take off, but if Universal goes neutral, then the need for a dual format player totally goes away because Blu-ray would then have 100% support from the major studios. HD-DVD would only play maybe half of the major studio releases, plus whatever exclusives the porn studios might have.

[kexodusc]

I hear what your saying BUT Micosoft will NOT support Blu-ray for the computer world, the 10 billion dollar Porn world will not support Blu-ray because HD can be made on regular DVD machines and Blu-ray requires special Sony machines, a combo disk can now be made for both of them as well as combo player, and the xbox has a two hundred HD play. The Porn busness drove the VCR, the home computer and DVD to success. It's $10,000,000,000.00 is greater the the movie sells busness. Sony had it all with the Betamax. I know. I have a $700 unit because all Betamax movies were in Hi-Fi and VHS were in Stereo with AM radio sound quality. Blu-ray is quick out of the blocks but HD will have computer, porn and cheap production because it can be made on a DVD machine. I was a Blu-ray freak till I read somewhere else what I wrote above. Remember, in its day Betamax had every movie release too and first. One day there will be a recordable Blu-ray and HD. But Microsoft will support the HD so for computers millions will be sold. I dont see those numbers for home Blu-ray recording for stand alone units. Not many people buy DVD recorders that are not for computers. And XBOX has a $200 HD player at Walmart waiting for everyone. I think you could see the new duel disk Blu-ray/HD take off soon.

Porn industry won't drive the format war at all - the vast majority of porn isn't big budget, big production stuff, but rather 2nd rate home video quality stuff. That's easy to record and put to DVD. DVD is likely to remain the standard for releases in that industry far longer than for Holywood. Much like VHS remained dominant late when DVD came out. When HD-DVD or BluRay become cheap and easy to make at home compared to DVD, then the industry will switch. There's little incentive to that industry to go HD right now.
They'll follow the leader.

Second, the porn industry will go where hardware sales go. I think it's safe to say that most HD-DVD or BluRay players are purchased without porn being a determining factor, if a factor at all.

VHS's success was inevitable by the time porno sales became significant - and trust me, there was plenty of porn available on Beta, too! Errr...so I've heard. That's more a case of the porn industry betting on the inevitable winner, much like they'll probably do this time around should BluRay or HD-DVD take a significant early lead.

[earwax]

I agree it smells like a sure winner for Blu-ray for sure. And that is what I wanted from the beginning as I foresaw a Sony PS3 in my near future too. One of my favorite movies is on Blu-ray, The Fifth Element. But as I said in the above post, doubt crept in with the consideration of the porn move to HD, Microsoft refusal to support Blu-ray on computers and the cheap HD add on for the XBOX 360. But I have an XBOX 360 now so I would like the $200 HD add on player and some movies to rent from Netflex. Is that so much to ask for. What if Netflex and Blockbusters asked the movie people to supply HD movies to rent over the internet? They could be made on DVD machines could they not?
Also I have not kept up with any of this of late so I don't really know anything other than the early adoption of Blu-ray by the movie industry. So what do we KNOW will happen for sure.
ONE: The movie groups have moved to chose one format over another.
TWO: That in doing this it will help settle a conflict in there marketing.
THREE: This in turn will help consumers by ending the HD war.
FOUR: To watch a HD movie on disk you have to spend over $500 for a Blu-ray PS3 machine that you
CAN NOT buy till LATER or better yet a $1000 for a stand alone player or HD-DVD at $200 for an XBOX 360 add-on that you CAN buy NOW or $500 machine that you CAN buy NOW.

FIVE: It just doesn't seem fair does it?
SIX: I have been a member for 5 years and this is my third post.

[Groundbeef]

[QUOTE=earwaxBut I have an XBOX 360 now so I would like the $200 HD add on player and some movies to rent from Netflex. Is that so much to ask for. What if Netflex and Blockbusters asked the movie people to supply HD movies to rent over the internet? They could be made on DVD machines could they not?
[/QUOTE]

Netlix DOES rent HD movies. And MS rents HD movies to d/l on the 360.

You ought to check your info before posting. Go to Netflix and pick movie genres its titled HD-DVD. Or if you want Blu-Ray, its in the Genre titled BLU-RAY.

[nightflier]

I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket yet. I see Blu Ray following the same path as SACD, and HD-DVD as that of DVD-A. Right now they are both niche technologies that are over priced and unattainable to the masses. A few years ago, the SACD camp was also edging out the DVD-A camp, but then Sony pulled the rug out from under it. If Blu Ray doesn't make them enough profits, I would not at all be surprised if Sony pulled the plug on it sometime in the future. Sony is on my sh*t-list right now for a whole lot of reasons (trying to squelch cassettes & fair use, the VHS-Betamax debacle, crappy receivers, abandoning SACD, proprietary memory sticks, killing MP3, the rootkit scandal, you name it). Their track record smacks of a racketeering, monopolistic, corruptible 800lb corporate gorilla, so it will take some time before I put my money into a Sony technology again.

And here's something else I've been trying to wrap my head around. How can a game console with so many other features include a Blu Ray player for around $600 ($800 if you consider that they are loosing money on the thing)? Why does a plain old Blu Ray player still cost $200-400 more? If you ask me, they're ripping us all off.

Frankly I was expecting HD-DVD to win because of their earlier time to market, the lower cost of the players, and the simpler manufacturing process for the disks. I'm no fan of Microsnot, but the fact that they put their weight behind HD-DVD seemed to indicate an easy victory. Of course Microsnot isn't exactly known for having a crystal ball when it comes to technological trends, but they certainly have the market share to push the swing to their side of the playground.

Anyhow, as with SACD, it's not technology or competition that will be the worst enemy of Blu Ray, but rather the self-serving company that created it. Let's hope that Sony grows up...

[Woochifer]

I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket yet. I see Blu Ray following the same path as SACD, and HD-DVD as that of DVD-A. Right now they are both niche technologies that are over priced and unattainable to the masses.

Are you referring to Blu-ray/HD-DVD or SACD/DVD-A as the "over priced and unattainable" technologies? If you're referring to Blu-ray/HD-DVD, it's still quite early in the game, with Blu-ray on the market only since August. At this stage with the DVD format, the basic players still cost around $800. If Blu-ray catches on, then the prices will inevitably continue to plummet. The analyst that I linked to thinks that Blu-ray players will hit the $400 price point by the end of the year. Samsung's 1st gen player that came out in August with a list price of $1,000 has already dropped below $700, and will probably drop even further as Samsung readies its 2nd gen player.

The Blu-ray and SACD path couldn't be more different. For one thing, Blu-ray has much stronger support from the movie studios than SACD ever got from the record companies. Also, Blu-ray includes a whole coalition of companies, including Dell, Panasonic, Apple, HP, Pioneer, Fox, Disney, Samsung, Lenovo, etc.

As for putting the eggs into one basket, the big issue IMO is that one camp already holds more than 80% of the eggs, while the other has less than half. And one camp already has a 10-to-1 advantage in the number of baskets. Blu-ray already has too big a structural advantage to lose the format war against HD-DVD outright. The worst case scenarios would be that HD-DVD forces a dual-format compromise, or both formats go down in flames. And right now, anything is possible.

A few years ago, the SACD camp was also edging out the DVD-A camp, but then Sony pulled the rug out from under it. If Blu Ray doesn't make them enough profits, I would not at all be surprised if Sony pulled the plug on it sometime in the future.

Where do you see Sony pulling the plug on SACD? They are still making audio-only SACD players to go along with their many DVD/SACD players; and in fact, they added SACD playback to the PS3.

If you're referring to their disc release schedule for SACD, well that's simply following the other major labels who have also abandoned high-res digital. And none of the other major labels released as many titles in high res as Sony did.

If anything, Sony has a history of sticking to its formats to the bitter end on the hardware side. Remember Minidisc and DAT? Yes, Sony still makes hardware for those formats. Remember Betamax? Sony did not stop manufacturing Betamax VCRs until 2004, even though they had lost the format war way back in the late-80s. Sony also kept manufacturing the original Playstation console until last year.

Blu-ray is way too important to Sony for them to abandon the format. To them, it's not just a means by which to play movies in HD, they're also looking for Blu-ray to take over as the standard format for optical storage on the PC side. This is nothing new for them, since they also developed the 3.5" floppy and CD-ROM drives.

And here's something else I've been trying to wrap my head around. How can a game console with so many other features include a Blu Ray player for around $600 ($800 if you consider that they are loosing money on the thing)? Why does a plain old Blu Ray player still cost $200-400 more? If you ask me, they're ripping us all off.

First off, the base PS3 console costs $500 and has the same Blu-ray playback capability as the $600 version (which adds a larger hard drive and wireless networking). If Sony is subsidizing the PS3 hardware (which they have to do in order to compete with the Wii and Xbox 360 on the gaming side), why is that a ripoff? I mean, when Toshiba was supposedly doing the same thing with its 1st gen HD-DVD players, were they ripping off customers too?

The pricing on standalone Blu-ray players is not entirely on Sony, since Samsung, Pioneer, Panasonic, AND Sony have all priced their 1st gen Blu-ray players higher than the PS3. Some early adopters simply don't want to use a gaming console to play their HD movies, or they prefer to have a player with upconverters and video scalers built in and better build quality. On the video side, manufacturers are less apt to subsidizing their hardware, since unlike with the PS3, a standalone Blu-ray player will not provide any revenue on the backside with software and accessory sales. So, for now at least, the prices on standalone Blu-ray players more accurately reflect true costs than the PS3, which has to be subsidized in order to compete with other gaming consoles.

In the end, the pricing structure will even out. And if you believe those market analysts, the prices on the standalone players will drop below the PS3 prices before the end of the year.

Frankly I was expecting HD-DVD to win because of their earlier time to market, the lower cost of the players, and the simpler manufacturing process for the disks. I'm no fan of Microsnot, but the fact that they put their weight behind HD-DVD seemed to indicate an easy victory. Of course Microsnot isn't exactly known for having a crystal ball when it comes to technological trends, but they certainly have the market share to push the swing to their side of the playground.

As mentioned throughout this thread, the two forces that have propelled Blu-ray into the lead in less than two months have been hardware sales (with the PS3 shipping in far bigger numbers than any HD-DVD player) and title availability (more releases coming out in Blu-ray, with this lead likely to widen as the year progresses). This should not have been surprising, since the PS3 came out when HD-DVD was still in the early adoption phase, and any cost advantage with HD-DVD will likely dissipate by the time either format goes mainstream.

Microsoft put their weight behind HD-DVD simply to try and block universal adoption of Blu-ray on the PC side, and to provide a counterweight to the PS3 with the Xbox 360. If anything, Microsoft would like to do nothing more than snuff out Blu-ray and HD-DVD, since they are now promoting HD downloading. Their support of HD-DVD IMO is nothing more than their usual "embrace-extend-extinguish" approach to eliminating competition by using their OS monopoly as leverage.

Microsoft's end game I think is all about extending the Windows monopoly into the living room as a universal digital media hub with everything encoded using proprietary Microsoft formats. Blu-ray and the PS3 represent the biggest obstacle at the moment (for one thing, they use open standards), and anything that the Xbox 360 and HD-DVD can do to hinder adoption of Sony's competing formats is what Microsoft will support. By the time Microsoft came out in favor of HD-DVD, Blu-ray already had Dell, HP, and Apple on board. If they were all about prognosticating the future, Blu-ray would have been a much easier bet since they already had broader industry support by the time Microsoft weighed in with their contrarian view.

If you want to draw an analogy, at the moment HD-DVD looks more like the Betamax because Toshiba's basically going at it alone on the hardware side. Having Microsoft as a partner should not be comforting to Toshiba if they're in this for the long run. Then again, I only see Toshiba supporting HD-DVD to extend the revenues from their DVD patents (which expire in about 7[?] years) as far as they can. For them, a draw in the format war is as good as a win. And the way I see it for Microsoft, it does not matter to them if HD-DVD fails so long as it takes Blu-ray down with it.

[Mr Peabody]

From the last Sony products I've bought, they certainly need to tighten up on the QC dept. I am in an "avoid Sony" mode myself. So if I do end up with Blu-ray it will be built by some one other than Sony.