Blu-ray Market Share at 13%, but Upcoming Releases Look Weak

[Woochifer]

FIRST THE GOOD NEWS
The latest Videoscan data shows the YTD market share for Blu-ray at 13%, which is more than double what Blu-ray averaged for all of 2008. Very clearly, the format got a huge boost from hardware sales during the holidays, and now the new BD player owners have shifted their purchasing to Blu-rays.

It seems that day-and-date new releases in particular are driving Blu-ray's market share, and The Dark Knight in particular completely reset the sales thresholds, becoming the first BD title to surpass 1 million and now 2 million discs sold. It was less than two years ago that Casino Royale was the first BD title to cross the 100,000 threshold, and it was less than six months ago that Wall-E and Iron Man first crossed the 500,000 mark.

WHAT'S THE NEXT DARK KNIGHT?
So now the question becomes what title will surpass The Dark Knight and when will that happen? Looking over the upcoming BD release schedule, I don't see anything that will come close to generating the activity that The Dark Knight did. In fact, I don't see much that looks all that inspiring over the next two months period.

WEAK UPCOMING SCHEDULE, AND A TWILIGHT BLUNDER
The only upcoming day-and-date releases that ranked among last year's top 10 movies are Madagascar 2 and Twilight. More disturbingly, the Twilight Blu-ray will be sold ONLY by Best Buy and Target for the first two months! Having one of the two biggest upcoming titles limited to two retailers during the initial release can only reduce the potential sales for that title, and limit the potential boost to the Blu-ray format itself.

While Blu-ray's increasing market share looks encouraging for the format's future, I also get the impression that disc sales will nosedive just as the format finally gains traction on the hardware side. There's just nothing on the new release schedule that will drive sales, and I don't think that catalog releases will carry the day either. If there's a time for someone, whether it's the studios or retailers, to try and boost sales by cutting disc prices, it's now. Blu-ray finally has some big time momentum, but consumers who venture over to the Blu-ray sections at Best Buy or Target see $30 price tags on the discs and promptly turn away. The time is right to start moving Blu-ray's price points further towards new release DVDs.

Here's the upcoming Blu-ray release schedule. Chime in if you see something that might turn into an unexpected hit...

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html

January 20, 2009

* 13 Going on 30 (Sony)
* Amusement (Warner)
* Antwone Fisher (Fox)
* The Deal (2008) (Peace Arch)
* Domino (Warner)
* El Norte (Criterion Collection)
* Election (Paramount Entetainment)
* The Express (Universal)
* Henry Poole is Here (Anchor Bay)
* Igor (MGM)
* King Kong (2005) (Universal Entetainment)
* Max Payne (Fox)
* The Notebook (Limited Edition Giftset) (Warner)
* The Pink Panther (2006) (Sony)
* Poison Ivy 4: The Secret Society (Warner)
* Repo! The Genetic Opera (Lionsgate)
* Saw V (Lionsgate)
* Unfaithful (Fox)

January 27, 2009

* Any Given Sunday: Director's Cut (Warner)
* The Bourne Trilogy (Universal)
* Dead & Buried (Blue Underground)
* Death Trance (Tokyo Shock)
* Groundhog Day (Sony)
* Hulk Vs. (Lionsgate)
* Lakeview Terrace (Sony)
* Open Season 2 (Sony)
* The Pink Panther (1963) (Fox)
* Pride & Glory (Warner)
* The Rocker (Fox)
* RockNRolla (Warner)
* Stomp Live (Well Go USA)
* Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Weinstein)
* Zodiac: Director's Cut (Paramount)

February 03, 2009

* Being There (Warner)
* Clerks II (Weinstein)
* The Cure: Trilogy - Live In Berlin (Eagle Rock)
* Friday the 13th (1980) (Paramount)
* Jeff Dunham: Arguing with Myself (Image)
* k.d. lang: Live in London (Image)
* Napoleon Dynamite (Fox)
* Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony)
* Office Space (Fox)
* Rent: Filmed Live on Broadway (Sony)
* Secret Life of Bees (Fox)
* Sex Drive (Summit)
* Sideways (Fox)
* Space Buddies (Walt Disney)
* Taxi Driver (Sony)
* Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein)

February 06, 2009

* Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Paramount)

February 10, 2009

* Amadeus: Director's Cut (Warner)
* Boondock Saints (Fox)
* Chocolate (Magnolia)
* Donnie Darko (Fox)
* Doom (Universal)
* Dragon Ball Z: Super Android 13 / Bojack Returns (FUNimation)
* Frozen River (Sony)
* A History of Violence (Warner)
* Hurricane on the Bayou (Image)
* IMAX: Grand Canyon Adventure - River at Risk (Image)
* IMAX: Super Speedway (Image)
* Little Miss Sunshine (Fox)
* Miracle at St. Anna (Walt Disney)
* My Name is Bruce (Image)
* Nights in Rodanthe (Warner)
* The Pelican Brief (Warner)
* Pretty Woman (Walt Disney)
* Raging Bull (MGM)
* The Rundown (Universal)
* Soul Men (2008) (Weinstein)
* Street Fighter (Universal)
* A Time to Kill (Warner)
* W. (Lionsgate)
* The Way of War (First Look)
* When Weather Changed History (Madacy)

February 15, 2009

* Highlander: The Series - Season One (Legendary Heroes)

February 17, 2009

* Body of Lies (Warner)
* Capote (2005) / In Cold Blood (Two-Pack) (Sony)
* Changeling (2008) (Universal)
* Gandhi (Sony)
* High School Musical 1-3 (Box Set) (Walt Disney)
* High School Musical 3 (Walt Disney)
* High School Musical: Remix (Walt Disney)
* How to Lose Friends & Alienate People (MGM)
* Kramer vs. Kramer (Sony)
* The Midnight Meat Train (Lionsgate)
* One Long Night (Vivendi Visual)
* The Passion of the Christ (Definitive Edition) (Fox)
* Quarantine (Sony)

February 20, 2009

* What Just Happened (Magnolia)

February 24, 2009

* The Bird with the Crystal Plumage (Blue Underground)
* The French Connection II (Fox)
* The French Connection (Fox)
* Futurama: Into the Wild Green Yonder (Fox)
* Kill Switch (Momentum)
* The Matador (2008) (City Lights)
* Neil Young: Archives Volume One - (1963-!972) (Warner Music Group)
* Ronin (MGM)
* Vanishing Point (Fox)
* The Who: Live At The Isle Of Wight Festival 1970 (Eagle Rock)

March 03, 2009

* Australia (Fox)
* Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Walt Disney)
* Brokeback Mountain (Universal)
* I've Loved You So Long (Sony)
* In the Electric Mist (Image)
* The Silence of the Lambs (MGM)
* Watchmen: The Complete Motion Comic (Warner)
* Wonder Woman (2009) (Warner)

March 10, 2009

* Batman: The Motion Picture Anthology (Warner)
* Battle in Seattle (Screen Media Films)
* Cadillac Records (Sony)
* The Grudge (2004) (Sony)
* Gulliver's Travels (1939) (Koch Distributing)
* Let the Right One In (Magnolia)
* Pinocchio (1940) (Walt Disney)
* Primal Fear (Paramount)
* Role Models (Universal)
* Synecdoche, New York (Sony)
* Transporter 3 (Lionsgate)

March 17, 2009

* Lady Death: The Motion Picture (A.D. Vision)
* National Lampoon's Van Wilder: Freshman Year (Lionsgate)
* Punisher: War Zone (Lionsgate)
* Quo Vadis (Warner)
* Rachel Getting Married (Sony)
* The Robe (1953) (Fox)
* Seven Pounds (Sony)
* South Park: The Complete Twelfth Season (Paramount)

March 21, 2009

* Twilight (Summit)

March 24, 2009

* The 400 Blows (Criterion Collection)
* Big Stan (Warner)
* Bolt (Walt Disney)
* Goldfinger (MGM)
* James Bond Collection Three-Pack: Volume 3 (Goldfinger, Moonraker, The World is Not Enough) (MGM)
* Kite Runner (Paramount)
* The Last Metro (Criterion Collection)
* The Matrix (Warner)
* A Mighty Heart (Paramount)
* Moonraker (MGM)
* Never Say Never Again (MGM)
* Passengers (Sony)
* Quantum of Solace (MGM)
* Things We Lost in the Fire (Paramount)
* UFC: The Best of 2008 (First Look)
* The Venture Brothers: Season 3 (Warner)
* The World is Not Enough (MGM)

[bobsticks]

You're right about the relative weakness of the lineup, at least compared to TDK. It will be interesting to see if the upgrade in quality is enough of a selling point even with higher retail prices to continue to drive market share. I can't help but notice that a lot of the titles indicate that the studios are pretty firmly going after the younger demographic which may be the right thing to do given disposable income.

Thanks for the comprehensive list, btw. You may have saved me a trip, at least on a couple of weeks.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

The releases are pretty weak, but generally sales during the first quarter are not all that great even when good titles are released. The only studio immune to this trend is Disney, the rest follow a upward trend as we progress during the year.

I see about 17 screeners, and 10 buys on that list for me. I think I have an addiction..........(drops head, walks away, and kicks a rock)

[Feanor]

I'm not yet a Blu-Ray or even HDTV owner; (someday, sooner rather than later I hope). But I wonder precise marketing point is of putting so much old stuff on Blu-Ray? I mean black&white stuff like Raging Bull? The Robe, you're kidding right?

Well, I would guess it's to get that small price premium from people who (1) want to buy an old flick they don't own, or (2) replace a DVD -- or VHS maybe. Would I be right about that?

For my part, when the day comes I'll be replacing very few of my old copies with Blu-Ray. Maybe a couple of my favorite re-watchers like Fifth Element.

[bobsticks]

Maybe a couple of my favorite re-watchers like Fifth Element.

That one, in particular, is outstanding in Hi-Def.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I'm not yet a Blu-Ray or even HDTV owner; (someday, sooner rather than later I hope). But I wonder precise marketing point is of putting so much old stuff on Blu-Ray? I mean black&white stuff like Raging Bull? The Robe, you're kidding right?

A. There is a healthy size fan base asking for the older movies. B. I have seen the master copy of the Robe, and it looks the best I have ever seen it outside a first rate dubbing stage or ultra tweaked screening room. You would be surprised how good these older movies (especially black and white) look after restoration and a first rate mastering job.

Well, I would guess it's to get that small price premium from people who (1) want to buy an old flick they don't own, or (2) replace a DVD -- or VHS maybe. Would I be right about that?

Bang!

For my part, when the day comes I'll be replacing very of my old copies with Blu-Ray. Maybe a couple of my favorite re-watchers like Fifth Element.

Everyone will adopt the Bluray format in a way it works for them. I am replacing most of my DVD's, and buying Bluray new releases exclusively. I haven't purchased a single DVD since late 2007, with the exception of Drum corps videos, which are not on Bluray just yet.

[Woochifer]

I'm not yet a Blu-Ray or even HDTV owner; (someday, sooner rather than later I hope). But I wonder precise marketing point is of putting so much old stuff on Blu-Ray? I mean black&white stuff like Raging Bull? The Robe, you're kidding right?

There's a sizable market for these titles. And compared to some of the licensing and back end revenue sharing issues that go along with more recent titles, library titles can be easier and cheaper to release because the studios generally own the distribution rights out right and might not need to shell out as much for commentaries and documentary material.

Plus, the studios are already busy remastering their film libraries to HD for HDTV broadcasts. So, they've already got the HD masters ready to go for many of these titles.

Well, I would guess it's to get that small price premium from people who (1) want to buy an old flick they don't own, or (2) replace a DVD -- or VHS maybe. Would I be right about that?

The studios try any number of different enticements to get people to buy movies, and preferably buy them multiple times. Just look at DVD releases and note how many titles have been released multiple times (e.g., first a movie-only edition, then a remastered special edition, then a bargain priced pared down edition, then a brand new director's cut, etc.). The transition to Blu-ray is the studios trying yet again to get consumers to repurchase titles they might already have in their library.

Everyone will adopt the Bluray format in a way it works for them. I am replacing most of my DVD's, and buying Bluray new releases exclusively. I haven't purchased a single DVD since late 2007, with the exception of Drum corps videos, which are not on Bluray just yet.

Yep, you're right about everybody adopting in their own way. Given the high prices for BD releases, I don't plan on a lot of rebuys on titles that I already own on DVD. I've also curtailed my DVD purchases since going HD/Blu-ray. For one thing, DVDs just don't look that great when their limited resolution gets magnified onto a 50" screen.

But, with new release BDs going for $25 to $30, I'm a lot more selective about what I buy. With a new release DVD going for $15 to $20, I might take a chance and impulse buy something that looks interesting. No way I'll do that at current BD prices.

Overall, I seem to be buying a lot fewer discs overall than before. Not sure if it's the less-than-stellar selection of new BD releases, or the fact that most of my "must have" movies have already come out on DVD and I already own them. I must admit it was more of a thrill when I was populating my DVD collection the first time around with many favorite movies that I was seeing in widescreen and 5.1 surround for the first time.

[filecat13]

When you consider you can go into Target in any given week and buy three to eight DVD titles from the featured racks for the price of one BD, it's madness to limit a title to just Target and Best Buy. I haven't been in a Best Buy in a couple of years, but I imagine it might be similar there as well: several impulse-buy DVDs for the price of one BD.

[pixelthis]

When you consider you can go into Target in any given week and buy three to eight DVD titles from the featured racks for the price of one BD, it's madness to limit a title to just Target and Best Buy. I haven't been in a Best Buy in a couple of years, but I imagine it might be similar there as well: several impulse-buy DVDs for the price of one BD.

YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR.
a FEW YEARS after VHS came out they introduced some "improvements"(notch filter and a few other things, things that should have been on from the beginning)
BLU is kinda like that, DVD PLUS.
Not to understate just how good it is, but just stating that it will eventually supplant
DVD, its just so much better.

[Woochifer]

When you consider you can go into Target in any given week and buy three to eight DVD titles from the featured racks for the price of one BD, it's madness to limit a title to just Target and Best Buy. I haven't been in a Best Buy in a couple of years, but I imagine it might be similar there as well: several impulse-buy DVDs for the price of one BD.

But, consider that it took a while before bargain priced DVDs began showing up. Early on, I remember a lot of heavily compressed single-layer movie-only DVD titles selling for upwards of $30. The current DVD pricing structure did not begin to take shape until the studios found that pricing the DVD for mass market purchase created a surge in demand and revenue for them.

Right now, the DVDs that are priced in that $10 and under range are generally titles that have been around for a while, aren't in high demand, and/or already been supplanted by a newer/better edition. They're bargain priced for a reason -- everybody who wants them already has them, or they're so low in demand that rock bottom pricing is the only way to move them.

In a couple of years, I'm sure you'll a lot of the early BD releases priced about on par with DVDs -- particularly the less-than-stellar releases from Warner and Sony that were encoded using the less efficient MPEG-2 codec and transferred from inferior masters.

[Woochifer]

Wow, The Digital Bits just updated their site with the newest YTD Videoscan numbers, looks like Blu-ray's market share has now increased to 16%.

Frankly, I'm amazed that Blu-ray is continuing to increase its market share versus DVD with a relatively lackluster release slate. Of course, this could also mean that the release slate on the DVD side isn't much better, and people are willing to pick up some high def titles in the absence of any compelling DVD releases. And it could also mean that a lot of people with brand new Blu-ray players are populating their disc collections with some old favorites.

In my case, the BDs that I've bought so far have been evenly divided between new releases (Wall-E and The Dark Knight), long-time favorites that never had a DVD release worth buying (Blade Runner and The Road Warrior) and double dips on favorite titles that I absolutely had to have in HD (Batman Begins and 2001: A Space Odyssey). I still might not have added 2001 at this time if not for a $20 sale price and a gift card.

FWIW, last week I bought my first DVDs since I added the Blu-ray player in November -- the new Dragon Dynasty release of Jackie Chan's 1992 action classic Supercop (Police Story 3) and Season 9 of Seinfeld. The Chan flick (FINALLY a domestic release with the original undubbed Cantonese soundtrack) is one that I've been waiting for since October (Dragon Dynasty has not announced any Blu-ray releases), and the Seinfeld set was an impulse buy at $20 (and not a big impulse buy, given that I already have the first 7 seasons).

[pixelthis]

The Blues BROTHERS, Chasing Amy, BODY HEAT.
The BIRDS ...
The catalog for BLU is still quite small just over a 1,000...
They need to get with it.

[kexodusc]

A few quick comments:

1) I'm glad BluRay is gaining ground - and I think it can be explained in part by the fact that disc purchases are a zero sum game. By that I mean, if a 3% increase in market share could be achieved approximately by a 1.5% shift in favor BluRay, because they come from the DVD camp, sending it down 1.5% at the same time...right? Someone's gotta lose 1.5% somewhere...

I think we're gonna see big figures like this that tend to paint a picture of a massive adoption of BluRay.

2) I think the old titles will help contribute to BluRay's success in a lean New Release period. I'm buying older titles now.

3) Think that Blockbuster and rental chains are huge players here now...even my little quaint Canadian town is expanding its BluRay offerings at a surprising rate. Everytime I went to rent in December, the shelves were bare, a few times I got vouchers for freebies...they've loaded up on BluRay to meet demand. Must be happening elsewhere.

4) The first half might suck, but with Transformers 2, Harry Potter, The Watchmen, and yet even another Fast and Furious movie coming down the pipeline, I'm sure 2009 will hold its own. That Monsters vs Aliens flick has potential too.

5) Oddly enough, I've bought about 30 BluRays since mid November. Well some were gifts, but still. That's about 5 times my normal consumption pattern for DVD...usually only a couple a month. Dunno if that pace will continue, but even crappy movies are kind of fun to watch in Hi Def. Wonder if everyone is feeling some subconscious pull to beef up there BluRay libraries after their new hardware purchase?

6) Nice to see Neil Young and The Who! What kind of audio format can we expect?

7) Donnie Darko is a must buy!