View Poll Results: Which one will go down in flames?

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  • HD DVD

    6 16.67%
  • Blu-Ray

    18 50.00%
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  • Both

    4 11.11%
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Thread: HDDVD or BluRay

  1. #1
    test the blind blindly emorphien's Avatar
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    HDDVD or BluRay

    Which one do you think is going to flop?

  2. #2
    guitar mongoose icarus's Avatar
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    Im gonna say blu-ray, even though it may be the better of the two, it is harder for people to change from DVD to blu-ray. HD-DVD is still associated with DVD and is not to much of an adaption.

    Wow im just blabbing on...
    that makes as much sense as a drunken mongoose playing the piano

  3. #3
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  4. #4
    test the blind blindly emorphien's Avatar
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    Yeah? Seems to me that with the head start and price advantage (I think) for HD-DVD, that it's got the best odds. Even though from a technology standpoint Blu-ray is a bit better, it's started off behind and rough.

    All IMHO and based on what I've read.

  5. #5
    VegaDog PaDave's Avatar
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    Blue Ray is not better than HD DVD right now. Blue Ray is 25G disk not 50G yet. Their is now way they will be at 50G disks any time soon. HD DVD on the other hand is a workable 30G and its clarity is unreal, i have seen both and i am more immpressed with HD DVD.
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  6. #6
    Loving This kexodusc's Avatar
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    Since storage is the only real advantage BluRay has, I don't see them winning a war. It's way too cheap and easy just to add another HD-DVD disc to a movie case make capacity a non-issue, how many 2 disc DVD's do you all own? HD-DVD is cheaper to manufacture, significantly lower in price at the consumer level, and isn't being run by Sony.
    Sony doesn't have a great track record pushing formats to market, (Beta, MiniDisc, SACD, codecs, etc).
    So I could see BluRay failing first, if I had to pick.

    Stranger things have happened though, and copyright crap could influence this in the end. I'm going to wait until they're very inexpensive or until i finally fork up some cash for an XBox 360 or PS3 to dive in.

  7. #7
    Demoted to Low-Fi Carl Reid's Avatar
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    If I had to guess... I'd say Blue Ray is more likely to flop... As others have said HD DVD is not a huge jump from regular DVD... and there is some amount of backwards compatibility (or did I just dream that up?).... also Sony has a bad track record for pushing new formats.... and there is a lot of resentment towards Sony now, as a result of how they've pushed the PS3 (forcing Blue Ray and a ridiculously high price on Consumers who just want to play games)....

  8. #8
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    Well, let's see, I have walked into a few stores in the past few weeks. All I saw were Blue-Ray players hooked up from Pana., Samsung, and Pioneer. I understand Sony has about to or has their players in stores. That is 4 manufacturers of their own players. I have not seen one HD-DVD player hooked up at all. There is only one manufacturer of HD-DVD out there, Toshiba, who is making a machine for RCA. I would like to see other manufacturers making HD-DVD units.

    I do not like the onslaught of all manufacturers machines not being to output through the analog outputs the HD audio codecs that are now appearing on some discs. That should have been in all machines from day one. The same goes for the 1080P video thingy as well.

    Toshiba's 2nd generation player that "does it all" is going to be a grand making it as expensive as Blue-Ray.

    Some recent Blue-Ray discs are being released with the avc video codec. It will be interesting to see what the result will be if certain companies release discs in both formats using the same codec and reviewers and testers check results in comparison to both formats.

    I think that either format could win at this time. The fact that Blue-Ray has multi-manufacturers and BD discs are starting to come out with the better video codecs could tilt the odds in their favor.

  9. #9
    Forum Regular Jack in Wilmington's Avatar
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    Aren't the second generation Toshiba's equiped with the HDMI 1.3 cable capability? And if the uncompressed Dolby and DTS is as good as I've heard it is, that should be a huge selling point.

  10. #10
    Tyler Acoustics Fan drseid's Avatar
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    I own both an feel it is likely both will ultimately survive... That said, if one does die, I would wager it is Blu-ray at this point. Toshiba may be alone on the manufacturer side, but that will change in time. I would say that HD DVD is here to stay... Blu-ray may also if it gets better and less expensive.

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  11. #11
    Forum Regular N. Abstentia's Avatar
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    I say Blu-Ray has flop written all over it, just look at the PS3 disaster.

  12. #12
    Tyler Acoustics Fan drseid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaDave
    Blue Ray is not better than HD DVD right now. Blue Ray is 25G disk not 50G yet. Their is now way they will be at 50G disks any time soon. HD DVD on the other hand is a workable 30G and its clarity is unreal, i have seen both and i am more immpressed with HD DVD.
    Actually there are a couple BD50 discs out there now (Kingdom of Heaven for example). That said, BD50 discs most likely will never be commonly used. I agree that the storage advantage is pretty much a myth, as HD DVDs almost all use HD DVD30 dual layer discs and most BDs are BD25s. I also prefer the look of HD DVD.

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  13. #13
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    Could be both....

    I think the true test will be when the early adopters have made their choice and then the choice moves down to the everyday Joe consumer (which just happens to make up 90+% of the population.) The real important points that made DVDs work so well was 1) No more rewinding , 2) Players could also play CDs, and 3) Menus, menus, glorious menus!

    Blu-Ray and HD-DVD have only High Definition in their corner to try and convince the masses to adopt a very similar format that offers very few advantages over DVDs. If they had worked together and introduced one format, the chances would have been better but I worry that both will go the way of the LaserDisc.

    Shane

  14. #14
    Class of the clown GMichael's Avatar
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    Although, I like the sound of the name "Blue-Ray", I think it will crash and burn. As others have said, HD-DVD has DVD it the name. People will catch on to this faster. Don't underestimate how simple the general public is. Most do not look below the surface. Blue-Ray sounds like you need a whole new ststem to make it work (with their Bose). HD-DVD sounds like, "plug me in and I work."
    Just my take on it.
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  15. #15
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    I think that SPF has it right,if things continue as they are,i fear that neither product will ever be more than a speciality product.If either is to survive,one has to go.People find it too confusing having more than one format to pick from.The average guy has no reason to upgrade,he may have a smaller television,no surround system to take advantage of the new audio formats,or no place to rent movies from.All reasons to stay with a format that works just fine for them.

    bill

  16. #16
    Forum Regular edtyct's Avatar
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    Yeah, but the laserdisc lasted ten years, and the relatively small public who bought into it were avid for it. I agree with the average-guy argument to a point, but if dire predictions were this easy to make, both formats would be gone by now. I'm really enjoying my hi def player for now; nothing lasts forever. By the way, Netflix is a good source for HD DVD and Blu-ray films if the local Blockbuster is a local block bust. (My longer "dissenting" argument appears at the end of a long post after a question about DVD formats.)

  17. #17
    spf
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    true.....

    Quote Originally Posted by edtyct
    Yeah, but the laserdisc lasted ten years, and the relatively small public who bought into it were avid for it. I agree with the average-guy argument to a point, but if dire predictions were this easy to make, both formats would be gone by now. I'm really enjoying my hi def player for now; nothing lasts forever. By the way, Netflix is a good source for HD DVD and Blu-ray films if the local Blockbuster is a local block bust. (My longer "dissenting" argument appears at the end of a long post after a question about DVD formats.)
    I think your last comment is a good point, edtyct . If the over-the-mail renting retailers get a good customer base then one or even both of the formats could pull through and become mainsteam. The laserdisc argument is especially sad because it had a very rabid group of followers (I was a late adopter but still there), it used a full AC-3 surround sound codec and had great resolution for its time. Its main drawbacks were size, flipping the disc halfway through a movie (I did have one of those neat players that read both sides) and very poor studio support.

    My personal prediction for the mainstream future format will be a digital HD file available on numerous servers in a sort of torrent type setup where you could download a 30GB movie in around 8 hours. (Of course, bandwidth will have to increase to make that kind of jump but technology is always moving )) Cheers!

    Shane

  18. #18
    Da Dragonball Kid L.J.'s Avatar
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    I like the fact that some HD-DVD sets also includes a DVD version of the film as well (Superman Returns HD-DVD/DVD combo for example). I'm not sure if BR is doing the same. Anybody know?

    Anyways, it is becoming very tempting to pick up a few titles since I know both formats will find their way into my home eventually. A BR player would be out of the question unless prices dropped, but a PS3 is doable simply because I will be using it for games as well. Same with an Xbox 360. Hey, if I'm gonna dive in, why not do it through gaming systems?

    I've owned an HDTV (2 now) for a few years now and would like to make more use of it. My TV veiwing is almost strictly HD but sometimes flipping through those same 20 channels can get old. I'm not too concerned about who wins what anymore I just want to enjoy some HD. It's getting boring and cold out here on this fence. GM, pass me another beer please.

  19. #19
    Tyler Acoustics Fan drseid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by L.J.
    I like the fact that some HD-DVD sets also includes a DVD version of the film as well (Superman Returns HD-DVD/DVD combo for example). I'm not sure if BR is doing the same. Anybody know?
    Nope... Only HD DVD is doing combo discs. I actually don't like those much, as they cost more as a general rule... but it looks like maybe there is a market for them after all.

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  20. #20
    Class of the clown GMichael's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by L.J.
    It's getting boring and cold out here on this fence. GM, pass me another beer please.
    Trade you a 6-pack for one of those pillows. I think I got a splinter.
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  21. #21
    Da Dragonball Kid L.J.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drseid
    Nope... Only HD DVD is doing combo discs. I actually don't like those much, as they cost more as a general rule... but it looks like maybe there is a market for them after all.

    ---Dave
    I didn't know they were more $$. I really haven't been tracking any prices. I do like the idea of enjoying the DVD version, since I don't own a HD player yet, while having the HD version for later. Although I can get DVD's for dirt cheap, I don't like the idea of buying DVD titles that I may want on HD one day.

  22. #22
    Forum Regular edtyct's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spf
    I think your last comment is a good point, edtyct . If the over-the-mail renting retailers get a good customer base then one or even both of the formats could pull through and become mainsteam. The laserdisc argument is especially sad because it had a very rabid group of followers (I was a late adopter but still there), it used a full AC-3 surround sound codec and had great resolution for its time. Its main drawbacks were size, flipping the disc halfway through a movie (I did have one of those neat players that read both sides) and very poor studio support.

    My personal prediction for the mainstream future format will be a digital HD file available on numerous servers in a sort of torrent type setup where you could download a 30GB movie in around 8 hours. (Of course, bandwidth will have to increase to make that kind of jump but technology is always moving )) Cheers!

    Shane
    Shane,

    The wonderful thing about LD was that it turned out to be a medium almost exclusively for enthusiasts and professionals. Criterion singlehandedly invented the extra content that everyone now takes for granted. The 2001 and Bladerunner LDs set the standard. I don't ever remember not being able to get a film that I wanted (avoiding those that I didn't want was more of a problem). The CAV disks were the ones that needed to be flipped every half hour, but the tradeoff was that they looked marginally bettter than the typical longer-playing CLV disks. I wouldn't have traded my CAVs for the convenience of longer playing. If you recall, some of the earlier DVDs had to be flipped or changed as well--"Michael Collins" being one that springs immediately to mind.

    An interesting question is whether the new hi def formats could exist solely as an enthusiasts' medium. They undoubtedly will for a while because of the nature of the business. But in the long run, I'm not so sure, since what made LD so valuable to film buffs was not just video quality (though that was considerable) but also the extra features (as well as--I have to admit--the cachet). But bonus material is no longer an exceptional selling point. Can superior video/audio alone sustain hi def disks while the large majority of people remain with standard DVD? Sooner or later, all viewing will be in what we now call hi def, and it, in turn, will be supplanted by something else. Delivery of all content via fiberoptic cable or otherwise is certainly in the cards, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Studio, broadcast, and theater lobbies will have something to say about it, not to mention the issue of foolproof copy protection. Meanwhile, in a complex economy with its own inertia and a restless digital age that refuses to sit still, you find your satisfaction wherever and however you can. It should be a wild ride. I'm going to take advantage of what's available now.

    Ed

  23. #23
    SuperPoser Rock789's Avatar
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    players and disks?

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  24. #24
    Forum Regular Woochifer's Avatar
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    I think this question is premature right now, and by this time next year, will probably be irrelevant.

    At CES next week, Warner (which supports both formats and is one of the patent holders for the DVD format) is supposed to announce a dual-format disc that will incorporate BOTH formats onto one disc. Meanwhile, both Samsung and LG have been developing dual format transports that will work both types of disc media. The transport's the only missing piece of the puzzle before universal players that play both HD-DVD and Blu-ray discs can start coming out. The chipsets used in the HD-DVD and Blu-ray players can already decode for BOTH formats, and are interchangeable for both types of players.

    With all of the behind-the-scenes development momentum right now aimed towards dual-format players and discs, the question of which format will flop then goes by the wayside. In the long run, I think Blu-ray will eventually win out because they have more studio support (Universal's the only studio that supports HD-DVD exclusively), and the disc media has larger capacity (in theory) which allows for more flexibility and higher datarates on the authoring side.

    Frankly, I'm surprised at how many people on this board think that Blu-ray will flop first considering that most of the first generation Blu-ray players have barely hit the market, and the studios supporting Blu-ray have only begun ramping up their releases. Add the prospect of dual-format disc players on the horizon, and I don't see how anyone can pick Blu-ray to flop without also saying the same thing about HD-DVD.
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  25. #25
    Class of the clown GMichael's Avatar
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    Will any of the HD players also play std DVD's as well? Or will we all need to have both to play our collections?
    WARNING! - The Surgeon General has determined that, time spent listening to music is not deducted from one's lifespan.

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