oscar predictions?

[Gerald Cooperberg]

Anyone care to make any Oscar predictions? I'll start off with mine, leavened with plenty of my own opinions. I've listed who I think will win in the major categories, along with who I think should win among the nominees and who I would've liked to see nominated.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Nominees: Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine, Jackie Earle Haley in Little Children, Djimon Hounsou in Blood Diamond, Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls, Mark Wahlberg in The Departed
should win: This one's kind of a toss-up for me, but Jackie Earle Haley had a tough job adding an element of humanity to a character-type who would normally be played as a monster, and nailed it.
will win: I'll buy into the "anti-Eddie Murphy conspiracy" rumors for a number of reasons, and go with Haley here too.
coulda been:: Where's Brian Cox? Maybe some Academy members didn't see the otherwise hit-and-miss Running With Scissors, but there were few delights this year that compared to hearing him shout "What are you doing in my masturbatorium?!"


Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Nominees: Adriana Barraza in Babel, Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, Abigail Breslin in Little Miss Sunshine, Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls, Rinko Kikuchi in Babel
should win: There's no question that Jennifer Hudson was the diamond in the rough in Dreamgirls, but she didn't have a lot to do outside of her few heartfelt musical numbers, so I'm inclined to pick someone else. All the Babel babble in this category seems to be centered around unknown Rinko Kikuchi, but I agree with Autumn that Adriana Barraza stood out as the most nuanced performance in that film, so I'll go with Barraza.
will win: There's no stopping the Jennifer Hudson steamroller.
coulda been:: Forget Abigail Breslin, the real eye-opening performance by a tween came from Shareeka Epps in Half Nelson in a riveting turn that nearly stole the movie.

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio in Blood Diamond, Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson, Peter O’Toole in Venus, Will Smith in The Pursuit of Happyness, Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland
should win: I don't disagree that Forest Whitaker ate up every scene that he was in in The Last King of Scotland, but I feel almost as if he would be better classified in the Supporting category-- it seems to me that James MacAvoy was the lead in that film. Out of the rest, Ryan Gosling delivered a breakthrough performance as a disaffected, drug-addled 20-something shoehorned into the role of an authority figure.
will win: Forest Whitaker, easily.
coulda been:: Academy, you really missed out on playing the clip of Clive Owen slumped against a tree, fumbling with a cigarette in Children of Men. Owen did more effective acting with a flutter of his fingers than a couple of the actual nominees here did in their whole films.

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Nominees: Penélope Cruz in Volver, Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal, Helen Mirren in The Queen, Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada, Kate Winslet in Little Children
should win: This is the one category where the Academy and I are sure to be on the same page-- Helen Mirren, Helen Mirren, Helen Mirren.
will win: Helen Mirren!
coulda been:: I was frankly surprised all around at the critical panning that Soderbergh's The Good German received, but I'm truly puzzled at the lack of recognition for Cate Blanchett's powerful, mesmerizing turn as a broken, would-be femme fatale.

Best documentary feature
Nominees: Deliver Us from Evil, An Inconvenient Truth, Iraq in Fragments, Jesus Camp, My Country, My Country
should win: I missed out on Deliver Us From Evil and My Country, My Country, so perhaps I should recuse myself on this one. Still, Iraq in Fragments is a monumental achievement, at once artful, educational, and deeply moving.
will win: I know that the popular sentiment has An Inconvenient Truth coasting to an easy victory, but it's my (possibly mistaken) impression that voters in this category must have seen all five nominated films, and it's hard for me to believe that anyone who has seen Iraq in Fragments would not cast their support behind it.
coulda been:: I'll take the unbridled joy captured in Dave Chappelle's Block Party over the sour snobbery on display in Jesus Camp any day.

Achievement in directing
Nominees: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel, Martin Scorsese, The Departed, Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima, Stephen Frears, The Queen, Paul Greengrass, United 93
should win: Paul Greengrass pulled off a near-impossible feat, making a non-exploitative, non-jingoistic film about 9/11 that was handled with all the sensitivity that requires and which forced us to confront our feelings about that day while maintaining subtlety throughout.
will win: Did you see who the presenters are? Can it be anyone other than Scorsese?
coulda been:: James Longley (Iraq in Fragments) worked unembedded in Iraq, risking life and limb to make a film that is not only revalatory and evenhanded but startlingly cinematic.

Best motion picture of the year
Nominees: Babel, The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
should win: My sentiments run to Letters from Iwo Jima, a moving film about confronting mortality told from a daring perspective.
will win: A real toss-up... I'll go with Babel.
coulda been:: The best film that came out last year, Children of Men.

-Coop

[icarus]

best supprting actor
-Djimon Hounsou
Best supporting actress
-jennifer hudson
Best actor
-forest whitaker
best actress
-Helen Mirren
Best documentary
-Didn't see any of them
best director
-Martin scorsese
Best movie
- either letters from iwo jima, or the queen, but definately not babel, babel was probably the most boring uneventful movie I saw all year.

[Dusty Chalk]

Best Picture: I've been hearing Little Miss Sunshine as the common prediction, as the votes for all the others will be diluted by each other, but I really wouldn't be as surprised as everyone is going to pretend they are when Departed wins.

Director: Scorsese -- "it's about time" being the reasoning.

[Gerald Cooperberg]

I don't think it will come as a surprise to anyone that I came in dead last in the pool at the Oscar-viewing party that I attended. Speaking of dead last, I did correctly predict that Robert Altman would close out the "Academy Remembers..." segment! Too soon?

-Coop

[Dusty Chalk]

Best Picture: I've been hearing Little Miss Sunshine as the common prediction, as the votes for all the others will be diluted by each other, but I really wouldn't be as surprised as everyone is going to pretend they are when Departed wins.

I called it.

[Troy]

Yeah DC, I called that weeks ago.

[Dusty Chalk]

I called it mere minutes before it was actually announced (well...hours...maybe). I only just got around to seeing it Saturday night.

Good call.

[Kam]

i think scorcese will finally win best director.


i'm clairovoyant like that.

[ForeverAutumn]

If I predicted that they would be boring, does that count?

[GMichael]

If I predicted that they would be boring, does that count?

I'm with you 4-ever. I couldn't keep my eyes open.