Blu ray is doing well even during the slow season [Archive]

Woochifer

03-05-2010, 11:28 AM

Those are very surprising numbers for the Blu-ray share of total sales, given that the biggest percentages I'd seen before the holidays were still in the high-30% range. Also, the Nielson Videoscan YTD Blu-ray market split was still below 20% for the overall market, as of January.

This seems to indicate that at least for the big blockbuster movies, Blu-ray has made huge inroads. No doubt this trend benefited from the big disc price reductions on those new release titles during November and December, and the brisk sales of Blu-ray players and HDTVs during the holiday season. I have noticed that BD prices on new releases have gone back up for many titles, but you also have a larger selection of older catalog titles with reduced pricing.

Also, I think that the BD-DVD-Digital Copy combo packs have had at least some market impact. I see that with Disney titles, the digital copy codes can now be used to also access those titles online. Very smart approach.

I agree that Blu-ray is no longer a niche product, and that has been the case for probably more than a year. I think the big picture question now is how much longer the DVD format will remain viable.

My understanding is that sales of Blu-ray players surpassed those of DVD players almost a year ago. Now, you have higher end manufacturers like Oppo and Denon phasing out their DVD players. With Blu-ray price points on course to dip below $100 by the end of the year, mainline manufacturers will have little reason to continue making standalone DVD players once the price points get that close.

With the DVD format, the hardware sales for DVD players surpassed VCRs about two years before the DVD sales surpassed VHS tapes. And once that happened, it took about three years before the studios discontinued VHS releases. Understanding that the VHS and DVD pricing structures were completely different, and the situation with Blu-ray differs because BD players can also play DVDs, it would seem that the DVD format has about 4 or 5 years of viability left, if past trends serve as an accurate indicator.

klif570

03-05-2010, 04:13 PM

Woochifer

03-05-2010, 07:27 PM

I bet DVDs are here to stay - they're cheap to make, they're cheap to buy, and there's hundreds of thousands of films available in this format. DVD players however might become obsolete, but since Blue Ray spinners can play DVDs, the both formats will be just as widespread. I think it's quite logical, really..

I wouldn't bet on that. The key here is the year-to-year growth of the Blu-ray format, which has been about doubling every year. Studios and retailers alike do not like dual inventories. Once the DVD format reached majority status in 2003 (roughly two years after DVD player sales surpassed VCR sales), VHS got phased out very quickly even though more consumers at that point owned VCRs than DVD players. It was a forced migration, and the studios and retailers wanted that because there's little money to be made for anybody in supporting a rapidly declining format. I see a similar scenario playing out for the DVD format.

Those "hundreds of thousands of films available" (actual number is around 110,000) are the exact reason why the DVD will get phased out at some point. Consumers who want them have already bought them, which effectively caps the market demand for catalog titles on DVD, leaving new releases as the primary market. Yet for new releases, the trend has moved decidedly towards Blu-ray, and catalog titles are now the fastest growing segment for Blu-ray sales. The cut rate prices you see on DVD catalog titles are more a sign of weakening market demand than anything.

klif570

03-06-2010, 03:27 AM

I wouldn't bet on that. The key here is the year-to-year growth of the Blu-ray format, which has been about doubling every year. Studios and retailers alike do not like dual inventories. Once the DVD format reached majority status in 2003 (roughly two years after DVD player sales surpassed VCR sales), VHS got phased out very quickly even though more consumers at that point owned VCRs than DVD players. It was a forced migration, and the studios and retailers wanted that because there's little money to be made for anybody in supporting a rapidly declining format. I see a similar scenario playing out for the DVD format.

Those "hundreds of thousands of films available" (actual number is around 110,000) are the exact reason why the DVD will get phased out at some point. Consumers who want them have already bought them, which effectively caps the market demand for catalog titles on DVD, leaving new releases as the primary market. Yet for new releases, the trend has moved decidedly towards Blu-ray, and catalog titles are now the fastest growing segment for Blu-ray sales. The cut rate prices you see on DVD catalog titles are more a sign of weakening market demand than anything.

I see what you're saying, but I don't think VHS and DVD is a fair comparison. VHS is not even a disc, it's inconvenient to use, it's bulky, it's unattractive. DVD and Blu Ray are exactly the same apart from Blu Ray being higher quality. I see it more like SACD vs CD

klif570

03-06-2010, 05:37 AM

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-06-2010, 08:02 AM

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-06-2010, 08:09 AM

By the way, has anyone heard of 5D DVD?

From wiki - "The 5D DVD, being developed in the Swinburne University of Technology in Melbourne, Australia, uses a multilaser system to encode and read data on multiple layers. Disc capacities are estimated at up to 10 terabytes, and the technology could be commercially ready within ten years."

Looks like this war's never gonna end..

Then there is holodisc and several other high capacity disc technologies out there. Fugetaboutit! The Blu ray disc is the last movie on disc we will see. When the broadband community gets their act together, digital downloads will be the next step. However, Blu ray still has tons of life in it, and other uses as well.

The only way a new disc technology gets released to the market is when the studios approve of it. Nobody is talking about Blu ray's replacement in Hollywood. But we are preparing for a digital eco system that allows you to watch a movie on any display device, mobile or stationary, whenever you want.

klif570

03-06-2010, 08:48 AM

Its not the disc, its the format that Wooch is commenting on.

Exactly my point - DVDs are discs, VHS are cassettes - two totally different mediums being compated. Of course no one wanted VHS when people could have the convenience of watching DVDs.

Now, DVDs and Blu-ray are exactly the same apart from quality.

If you like, Video CD and DVD is a much fairer comparison.

Of course DVDs will come to an end at one point, but not the same way VHS did.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-06-2010, 09:13 AM

Exactly my point - DVDs are discs, VHS are cassettes - two totally different mediums being compated. Of course no one wanted VHS when people could have the convenience of watching DVDs.

Now, DVDs and Blu-ray are exactly the same apart from quality.

If you like, Video CD and DVD is a much fairer comparison.

Of course DVDs will come to an end at one point, but not the same way VHS did.

There is a long history of product introduction, and product sunset that supports the notion that DVD will disappear just like VHS did. First it starts with a newer better product being introduced. Then there is a period of co-existence where the new and the old get the same support. After a time, you see the extra content dropped from the older product as sales slide downwards, and the new product sales trend upward. Then the manufacturing support for the older product dries up as profits slide, and eventually the product is dropped. We already have two manufacturers who have or will stop making DVD players. We are already seeing extra content on Blu ray not found on DVD. All consumer product introduced in the last 40 years has undergone this type of lifespan. Cassettes to CD, VHS and Laserdisc to DVD, and now DVD to Blu ray.

VHS and DVD are both carriers of movies even if the technology was different. Whether it was on tape, or on a disc, they both carried movies to your house. They are both video formats, so it is quite a apple to apples comparison.

klif570

03-06-2010, 10:46 AM

There is a long history of product introduction, and product sunset that supports the notion that DVD will disappear just like VHS did. First it starts with a newer better product being introduced. Then there is a period of co-existence where the new and the old get the same support. After a time, you see the extra content dropped from the older product as sales slide downwards, and the new product sales trend upward. Then the manufacturing support for the older product dries up as profits slide, and eventually the product is dropped. We already have two manufacturers who have or will stop making DVD players. We are already seeing extra content on Blu ray not found on DVD. All consumer product introduced in the last 40 years has undergone this type of lifespan. Cassettes to CD, VHS and Laserdisc to DVD, and now DVD to Blu ray.

In short, it'll get replaced by the new technology, like everything else. When the time comes.

VHS and DVD are both carriers of movies even if the technology was different. Whether it was on tape, or on a disc, they both carried movies to your house. They are both video formats, so it is quite a apple to apples comparison.

As for this, they are both ''apples'' if you can't tell the difference between VHS and DVD.

The main reasons people upgraded from VHS are 1. size 2. ease of use 3 much better quality.

Now let's compare DVDs vs Blu Ray ones again:

1. They are exactly the same in (physical) size.

2. They are equally easy to use...oh wait, Blu Ray can't be coppied and they take longer to load, Blu Ray laser life is even shorter than that of DVD, CD playback is rubbish too ..but let's still say they are the same.

3. And finally, the only advantage Blu Ray has over DVD is higher quality, which is only noticeably better if your screen size is 30-32in and above. Now then, there millions of people who don't have big screens, millions who don't have upscaling TVs yet, let alone 50inch plasmas. Will they buy Blu Ray? Or would they be happy with 1080i/1080p?

I think they would be, but they will be forced to buy Blu Ray if a particular film is only available in the new format. And since many companies have invested so much in the new design they will be pushing their new product further.

The way I see it is that Sony, Panasonic, LG, etc are happy with their new product; film companies are happy because of the advanced copy protection, and consumers are happy because they have the latest toy on the market and can laugh at those unfortunate ones who are still using DVDs. But what about people who don't want to, or have no reason to upgrade? :17:

Smokey

03-06-2010, 02:00 PM

Woochifer

03-06-2010, 02:41 PM

I see what you're saying, but I don't think VHS and DVD is a fair comparison. VHS is not even a disc, it's inconvenient to use, it's bulky, it's unattractive. DVD and Blu Ray are exactly the same apart from Blu Ray being higher quality. I see it more like SACD vs CD

Don't get overly fixated on the physical form factor. The similarity between the VHS/DVD and DVD/Blu-ray coexistence is that both situations require retailers, studios, rental outlets, mail order sites, etc. to maintain dual inventories. In these cases, the newer format is more lucrative because 1) consumers are willing to pay more for the improvements; and 2) the newer format can draw revenues from sales of catalog titles, whereas the older format increasingly relies solely on new releases.

If anything, VHS's pricing structure (which featured a two-tiered rental pricing and sell-through pricing window, along with revenue sharing agreements with the major rental chains) protected the format even with rapidly declining demand.

The DVD is now a devalued format with lower margins because consumers simply will not pay as much as they used to for a DVD. A devalued format can still justify staying in print if it can maintain a high enough volume to make up for the reduced margins, but DVD sales have been declining.

The SACD analogy does not apply because:
1) SACDs never had day-and-date releases like you see with Blu-ray
2) SACD was supported by less than half of the major record labels, whereas Blu-ray is now supported by all of the major movie studios
3) SACD was supported by only a handful of the major consumer electronics manufacturers, whereas nearly all of the major manufacturers have put out a Blu-ray player
4) Blu-ray's market share is way higher than SACD ever had

The market conditions for Blu-ray are way different.

Woochifer

03-06-2010, 03:43 PM

As for this, they are both ''apples'' if you can't tell the difference between VHS and DVD.

The main reasons people upgraded from VHS are 1. size 2. ease of use 3 much better quality.

People also upgraded because VHS was subsidized by a two-tiered pricing structure that generated far more revenue per copy. The DVD used a variation of the old Laserdisc pricing structure, which was designed for sell-through. Once the DVD prices began dipping below $30, the market fundamentally shifted because VHS tapes typically carried list prices of ~$80 to $100 during the initial release window.

Now let's compare DVDs vs Blu Ray ones again:

1. They are exactly the same in (physical) size.

2. They are equally easy to use...oh wait, Blu Ray can't be coppied and they take longer to load, Blu Ray laser life is even shorter than that of DVD, CD playback is rubbish too ..but let's still say they are the same.

3. And finally, the only advantage Blu Ray has over DVD is higher quality, which is only noticeably better if your screen size is 30-32in and above. Now then, there millions of people who don't have big screens, millions who don't have upscaling TVs yet, let alone 50inch plasmas. Will they buy Blu Ray? Or would they be happy with 1080i/1080p?

The point that you're ignoring is that VHS got phased out when there were still more VCRs than DVD players installed. The studios and retailers will follow the where the demand and the revenue potential are going. Right now, those trends are decidedly shifting towards Blu-ray.

You can point out reasons why Blu-ray is not worth the upgrade, but if the market trends continue in the direction that they have gone, none of them will matter. Also, you points in #2 are issues that have nothing to do with the format itself (i.e., loading times will vary by model and also depend on how the disc was authored, CD playback has nothing to do with the Blu-ray format, etc.).

We're probably less than two years away, if not one year away, from Blu-ray players reaching price parity with DVD players. At that point, anyone buying a video player will be buying Blu-ray. We're already at a point where the average TV screen sizes have gone above 40" and nearly all of the TVs now sold are HD. Household penetration of HDTV is now above 60% and is on track to reach 80% sometime next year.

I think they would be, but they will be forced to buy Blu Ray if a particular film is only available in the new format. And since many companies have invested so much in the new design they will be pushing their new product further.

And that's exactly the same thing that happened to VHS once the DVD took over the market lead.

The way I see it is that Sony, Panasonic, LG, etc are happy with their new product; film companies are happy because of the advanced copy protection, and consumers are happy because they have the latest toy on the market and can laugh at those unfortunate ones who are still using DVDs. But what about people who don't want to, or have no reason to upgrade? :17:

This is how the consumer electronics market has always functioned. They are constantly in a race to develop new devices that consumers want, before their older formats become commodified low margin products. And the studios are always looking for new markets to resell their catalog titles.

Retailers, manufacturers, and content providers have no obligation to indefinitely support formats that consumers have largely abandoned, and are more apt to finding reasons to pull the plug. It has nothing to do with laughing at the "unfortunate ones" still using an older format. By the time the DVD or any format reaches minority status, the successor is no longer some "latest toy" -- it's now the standard. And as with any standard, you can choose to go along with it, or make do with what you have.

klif570

03-06-2010, 04:07 PM

Klif570, you are making the same argument as I did in this thread (post # 53) couple of months back:

http://forums.audioreview.com/showthread.php?t=32398&page=3&highlight=walmart

I think we all agree that DVD will eventually be phased out. The sticky point seem to be the time frame this will happen. I agree with you that Blu and DVD will coexist toghether at least in the short run, and looking at sale price of discs from each format point to that direction.

For example, Bestbuy and Walmart now reguraly have Bluray discs on sale for $10 and DVD for $5 where DVD cover titles that are not yet available on Bluray.

Thanks for the link, Smokey. Nice to see someone on the same brain-wave length.

Perhaps there is a wider selection of Blu Ray discs in the US, but when I go and check local stores in the UK, I see one shelf of Blu Ray discs and the whole aisle of DVDs.. and if I want a particular film, it's somehow magically been released on DVD and not Blu Ray.

I'm more than happy with the DVD quality, which upscaled to 1080p on a normal size display look nearly identical, but yes, at one point people will have to upgrade anyway. Hollywood never has been happier with the new Blu Ray copy protection and the major companies like Sony have found something new to sell.

klif570

03-06-2010, 04:28 PM

Also, you points in #2 are issues that have nothing to do with the format itself (i.e., loading times will vary by model and also depend on how the disc was authored, CD playback has nothing to do with the Blu-ray format, etc.).

No, not the format itself, but I was saying that Blu Ray players are still inferior to many DVD players. But I can excuse this since Blu Ray is a new technology.

We're already at a point where the average TV screen sizes have gone above 40" and nearly all of the TVs now sold are HD. Household penetration of HDTV is now above 60% and is on track to reach 80% sometime next year.

Most TVs are HD, yes, but the average size being above 40"? Okay.. whoever did this survey is either far from reality or simply ignored the middle and lower class.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-06-2010, 04:53 PM

No, not the format itself, but I was saying that Blu Ray players are still inferior to many DVD players. But I can excuse this since Blu Ray is a new technology.

Sorry man, but this is incorrect upon closer look. There is no DVD player that has the capacity to pass 60 mbps worth of video information, and 20 mbps for audio...ZERO. Every Blu ray player must be able to do that, from the most expensive, to the cheapo players. There are ZERO DVD players out there that can pass 8 channels of 24/192khz audio, but every Blu ray player must from the top of the line, down to the cheapo model must be able to, it is part of the specification for Blu ray.

Most TVs are HD, yes, but the average size being above 40"? Okay.. whoever did this survey is either far from reality or simply ignored the middle and lower class.

He is right when it comes to America. In the UK and pretty much all of Europe, the average screen sizes are from between 30-42". Here is the US, the average screen sizes where the most sales are stand from 40-55", with the top creeping to 60" in some cases. The smallest set in my house is 52", and the largest is a projection screen of 130". All of my displays are between these sizes. My best friend who almost never watches television has a 52" set. Everyone I know here has at least a 42" model. Just by looking in your audio and video magazines, it is apparent that screen sizes in Europe that are hot sellers are far smaller than the top selling models here.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-06-2010, 05:08 PM

Thanks for the link, Smokey. Nice to see someone on the same brain-wave length.

Smoke comes from a different perspective than Wooch and I. My pal does not have a Blu ray player yet(get on the ball Smoke!!!)

Perhaps there is a wider selection of Blu Ray discs in the US, but when I go and check local stores in the UK, I see one shelf of Blu Ray discs and the whole aisle of DVDs.. and if I want a particular film, it's somehow magically been released on DVD and not Blu Ray.

There is a wider selection of titles here than in the UK and all of Europe. Japan even has a larger choice of titles than you guys do. Personally, I have never purchased a title at a brick and motar store, they are too expensive. I go to Amazon, which seems to have every title released in the Blu ray format.

I'm more than happy with the DVD quality, which upscaled to 1080p on a normal size display look nearly identical, but yes, at one point people will have to upgrade anyway. Hollywood never has been happier with the new Blu Ray copy protection and the major companies like Sony have found something new to sell.

And don't forget, the consumer is now seeing resolution that is equal to projected 35mm film, and getting audio as close to the master as we have ever been. Everyone wins here, not just Sony and Hollywood.

As far as another disc replacing Blu ray...it ain't going to happen. No disc format for movies becomes successful anywhere without the blessing of the Hollywood studios. They own the content. I can tell you this right now, we are not going to another disc format ever. Down the line, it is digital delivery via the internet, but that is quite a few years down the road. It will take quite a few years for the infrastructure of the internet to get big enough to take the huge bandwidth demands of digital delivery. Another uptick in resolution is not too far away, and Blu ray can support that as well. That would be 4K video. There is already a Blu ray disc capable of being played in every Blu ray player in the field that is 100GB, more than enough capacity with AVC to encode to that resolution. After that, perhaps the internet will be ready for digital delivery. I can say this with much certainty, there is not going to be another new disc format after Blu ray. There is still to much exploration of the Blu ray capacity in respect to its specification to even think about it.

klif570

03-07-2010, 02:55 AM

Sorry man, but this is incorrect upon closer look. There is no DVD player that has the capacity to pass 60 mbps worth of video information, and 20 mbps for audio...ZERO. Every Blu ray player must be able to do that, from the most expensive, to the cheapo players. There are ZERO DVD players out there that can pass 8 channels of 24/192khz audio, but every Blu ray player must from the top of the line, down to the cheapo model must be able to, it is part of the specification for Blu ray.

Haha, well obviously you can turn it round any way you like.. Blu-Ray players can play Blu Ray discs..wow! No one said they can't pass 60mbps.. what I said was that with poor loading times, poor CD quality playback, and may I add, firmware issues, they are inferior to DVD players. Simple

He is right when it comes to America. In the UK and pretty much all of Europe, the average screen sizes are from between 30-42". Here is the US, the average screen sizes where the most sales are stand from 40-55", with the top creeping to 60" in some cases. The smallest set in my house is 52", and the largest is a projection screen of 130". All of my displays are between these sizes. My best friend who almost never watches television has a 52" set. Everyone I know here has at least a 42" model. Just by looking in your audio and video magazines, it is apparent that screen sizes in Europe that are hot sellers are far smaller than the top selling models here.

Probably does make sense when I take into account that around 15% people in the US are below povery line, they probably don't even have TVs. Most of the rest is the '' I'm better than you'' type and buy as large as they can.. even if they almost never use it..like your friend. Did you suggest he buys Blu Ray already?

Smoke comes from a different perspective than Wooch and I. My pal does not have a Blu ray player yet(get on the ball Smoke!!!)

Exactly what a Blu Ray fanboy would say.

And don't forget, the consumer is now seeing resolution that is equal to projected 35mm film, and getting audio as close to the master as we have ever been. Everyone wins here, not just Sony and Hollywood.

Sounds very good indeed. But I don't need to watch a TV show and see everyones pores on screen, thank you very much. I do agree however that sci-fi and live recordings are nice in the new format, which I won't be able to copy for my dear friends..ahhh.

I can tell you this right now, we are not going to another disc format ever.

Another fanboy thing. Same what people said when DVDs came along..

klif570

03-07-2010, 08:31 AM

audio amateur

03-07-2010, 10:13 AM

I have to say, as long as DVDs are readily available and cheaper then BR, I don't see them going anytime soon. In my opinion, they will only go when they aren't available to the public anymore.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-07-2010, 12:09 PM

Haha, well obviously you can turn it round any way you like.. Blu-Ray players can play Blu Ray discs..wow! No one said they can't pass 60mbps.. what I said was that with poor loading times, poor CD quality playback, and may I add, firmware issues, they are inferior to DVD players. Simple

Poor loading times are a thing of the past with the newer players, and Pioneer and my PS3 make damn good CD players as do many others, don't really know what you are talking about, but you are entitled to your opinion. Firmware upgrades were not possible with DVD, and I would rather have a firmware upgrade than having to replace the player because it didn't function correctly, or you could not add a feature to it. Secondly, the only firmware upgrades I have had to do over the last year was to add features to an already feature rich product. I knew quite a few DVD players that were unsuitable for CD playback as well. Seems to me you enjoy making mountain out of a molehill, anyone who has updated a computer knows a firmware upgrade is a piece of cake. I could probably train my dog to do it.

Probably does make sense when I take into account that around 15% people in the US are below povery line, they probably don't even have TVs. Most of the rest is the '' I'm better than you'' type and buy as large as they can.. even if they almost never use it..like your friend. Did you suggest he buys Blu Ray already?

Nice. In your abundance of intelligence you managed to broadly(and inaccurately) describe many Americans character without meeting every American. This broad brush is almost as bad as saying folks that live in the UK do not know good food, or all have bad teeth. Neither of these kinds of comments describe all people in either country do they?

Many of us how have done well (and have worked damn hard) don't think we are better than anyone else. I personally am not defined by my job, salary, or the toys I have. I buy large screens because that is what I want, not because I want to be better than anyone else. My friend purchased his 52" television (and yes a PS3 as well) because it was a bargain, and because that is what he wanted, no matter how often he watches it. He has the right just as much as you do right?

According to the last records I have read from the Economic Research Council, 22% of you Brits are also below the poverty line as of the 2007/08 tally. I am not going to begin to say that they don't have televisions, just like you don't really know that those 15% of our poor don't have one. Assumption is an quick and easy way to make an a$$ out of yourself.

Exactly what a Blu Ray fanboy would say.

Most intelligent folks have no use for name calling and insults. I think this little snip of words tell a lot about you.

Sounds very good indeed. But I don't need to watch a TV show and see everyones pores on screen, thank you very much. I do agree however that sci-fi and live recordings are nice in the new format, which I won't be able to copy for my dear friends..ahhh.

I personally do not like to look at images that have been filtered and compressed to death, and then coated with generous doses of edge enhancement to attempt to sharpen what fuzzy mess is left after the filtering. I do not want to listen to lossy audio forever either, because that is the best the format can do. Limitations bug me, and DVD had a lot of them.

Sorry that your dear friends now have to actually buy what they watch. They may have to get a gym membership just to take the wallet out of their pockets and purchase a disc. Ahhhh to bad so sad.

Another fanboy thing. Same what people said when DVDs came along..

I am afraid you are wrong about that. Before DVD even came along, we in Hollywood were already trying to get a HD on disc format off the ground. The Warner and Toshiba alliance beat us to the punch with DVD, so we knew there was going to be another disc format after DVD. In conversations I have had with various fellow executives in Hollywood, it is pretty much universally agreed that we will not be another disc format after this. This is why Disney(the studio I work for) created Keychest, and the remaining studio created the DECE, better known as the Digital Entertainment Content Ecosystem.

http://www.decellc.com/

http://www.gadgetell.com/tech/comment/future-proof-your-movie-purchases-with-disneys-keychest-media-in-the-cloud/

No sir, I am afraid after Blu ray, we are done with the disc that is for sure. But while it is here, Hollywood intends are exploring the technology until there is nothing left to explore. As far as the DVD, well DVD players do not last forever. When they break and you go out to look for another player and discover there are Blu ray players that are just as cheap, and can play both DVD AND Blu ray disc, what do you think smart people will do? Over the Christmas holiday Blu ray players outsold DVD players here in the US, and while DVD sales are down 25% Blu ray sales are up 76%. Those of us who have been following consumer electronics for decades can really see the handwriting on the wall for DVD pretty easily. Those that love the taste of sand probably cannot see it very well.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-07-2010, 12:13 PM

So I just went to Amazon and checked Blu Ray content..nearly 7000 titles! Impressive. Then I checked DVDs (and that excludes DVD n Blu combos) - nearly 400.000 :17: Doesn't look like DVDs are going anytime soon

While you are cherry picking your facts, I have some more for you. Naturally one format would have more titles than another when one is 13 years old and the other just barely four. Keep in mind wise one, there were far more titles on VHS than DVD four years after DVD hit, and VHS still died. I cannot tell you how many times I heard your line when DVD hit the market. People really do have short memories.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-07-2010, 12:15 PM

I have to say, as long as DVDs are readily available and cheaper then BR, I don't see them going anytime soon. In my opinion, they will only go when they aren't available to the public anymore.

Commodity pricing always comes just before a format's death. VHS where cheaper than DVD's and were readily available, where is it now?

poppachubby

03-07-2010, 12:45 PM

Hey Terrence, my local surplus has a pile of factory refurbished Sharp Aquos BDP's for the magic $100. Please give me your thoughts on this. Break it down one time ese...

klif570

03-07-2010, 12:58 PM

anyone who has updated a computer knows a firmware upgrade is a piece of cake. I could probably train my dog to do it.

I would love to see that!

According to the last records I have read from the Economic Research Council, 22% of you Brits are also below the poverty line as of the 2007/08 tally. I am not going to begin to say that they don't have televisions, just like you don't really know that those 15% of our poor don't have one. Assumption is an quick and easy way to make an a$$ out of yourself.

Doesn't look like true facts to me. Most people I know are on medium income, while all Americans I've spoken to always mentioned how there are extremely rich areas and a few miles further - a latino town. Have you even heard about the two Americas thing? Or are you one of those stuck up snobs who'd rather pretend it's all nice?

Most intelligent folks have no use for name calling and insults. I think this little snip of words tell a lot about you.

Fanboy is not an insult, and if you are one, you will be called as such. You started this thread on how good Blu Ray sales are, and keep saying how Blu Ray is the last format ever.. what is it if not fanboyism? Haha thanks for the laugh.

And no need to compare VHS again, no one liked to sit and rewind those bulky things for 15 minutes.. If VHS was upgraded to, lets say, VHS-X, offering higher quality, do you think people would have switched the way they switched to DVDs? That's the point here why people upgraded and why VHS can't be compared to DVD. Blu Ray doesn't have this advantage over DVD.

So I've said pretty much all that I wanted. Those who agree with me will see my point, those who have bought Blu Ray probably don't want to see it. Sure, DVD format will be replaced, and so will Blu Ray..that's how it is with technology. But that's when time comes, and now with 400.000 DVDs vs 7000 Blu Ray on Amazon, I think we still have a long way to go. :17:

audio amateur

03-07-2010, 01:43 PM

Commodity pricing always comes just before a format's death. VHS where cheaper than DVD's and were readily available, where is it now?
DVD movies had a lot to offer compared to VHS. VHS quality plain sucked (both video & sound), as you already know. Not only that, DVD was more practical, compact and offered language selection and interactive menus, not to mention it wasn't backward compatible with VHS. When you think about it, there is a lot going for DVD in that a big chunk of the popultion is probably very happy with DVD as far a video quality goes, especially here in Europe where, as you said people don't have massive screens which show off high def. I'm not going to talk about sound because 90% of the consumer base won't hear or won't have the gear to exploit high def sound.

A friend of mine bought a 32" 720p screen back in 2007. We made comparison of DVD vs BR with irobot and granted, the picture was a little better but I wouldn't go as far as saying it was night and day. As for audio (something we all know so well as audiophiles), the public just isn't interested in small incremental increases in sound quality.

I'm just saying, DVD has a lot going for it. Granted, I'm already looking forward to buying BR and actually withholding DVD purchases in favour of future BR purchases, but hey, I'm not average Joe who likely (at this stage anyways) doesn't see massive benefits in buying BRs when DVDs are cheaper.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-07-2010, 07:24 PM

I would love to see that!

So would I! LOL

Doesn't look like true facts to me.

Well, they have the statistic's to prove so, and I am just guessing, but you have not conducted your study on the issue have you?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-faces-return-to-victorian-levels-of-poverty-1831088.html

I think the words With 20 per cent of the population still stuck in poverty, the report calls for sweeping reform of the tax and welfare systems under which higher earners would finance more generous, universal benefits. sums it up nicely.

Most people I know are on medium income, while all Americans I've spoken to always mentioned how there are extremely rich areas and a few miles further - a latino town.

First as a Latino (and part British as well), I must take umbrage to the connotation of your usage of Latino town. Unfortunately the poor in this country come from many cultural backgrounds and races, not just the Latino culture. Southern Florida is full of pretty wealthy Latinos, and usually the wealthy dwell among the wealthy regardless of race or culture here. Just to correct you on some basic misconceptions, our poverty rate is 13.2% not 15%, and the poorest in this country are not Latinos.

Your misleading statement attempts to paint an inaccurate picture of America's income breakout. Even though it is shrinking, the middle class in this country represent the lion share of the population. However, our middle class has sub categories within it, but this is not the proper discussion to outline that.

Have you even heard about the two Americas thing?

I know it much better than you I suppose.

Or are you one of those stuck up snobs who'd rather pretend it's all nice?

My racial and cultural background would make that quite impossible.

Fanboy is not an insult, and if you are one, you will be called as such.

This kind of play ground like activity is below the radar for me, sorry. Senseless name calling is kids play, and an activity not worthy of mature intelligent adults. Labels are for people without the intellectual capacity to figure out subtleties and shades.

You started this thread on how good Blu Ray sales are, and keep saying how Blu Ray is the last format ever.. what is it if not fanboyism? Haha thanks for the laugh.

I started this thread to outline how Blu ray disc and player sales are bucking sales trends that extend back several decades in this country. I said that the Blu ray disc format will be the last disc format because it is the last disc format that Hollywood is willing to support. It is almost unanimous among the good people that work in film industry (of which I am one) and make those kinds of decisions in that the industry, it longer wants to support another disc based format after Blu ray sunsets. The next direction the industry is headed is cloud based digital downloads that are available on demand, that is where the industry is headed. Now every disc based technology that get's its 15 minutes of fame is not going to be used by the film community. Do you remember this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc

Optiware started working on this technology long before Blu ray and HD DVD were conceived, and it did not live up to the hype it created.

InPhase has been working on this since 2000, a full six years before Blu ray and HD DVD hit the market, and just when DVD was beginning to take traction. Guess what, 3 times the company has announced products, and three time they failed to deliver.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InPhase_Technologies

Or how about this goody that was supposed to be a Blu ray and HD DVD killer before they were even born. This was supposed to be what was going to replace DVD, but they could not get the 50GB version to work properly, so Sony and Toshiba went on with their plans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Multilayer_Disk

When the content owners say they are going to be through with disc based technology after Blu ray(and have shown they mean it by developing their own system of delivery), you can pretty much bet they mean it.

And no need to compare VHS again, no one liked to sit and rewind those bulky things for 15 minutes.. If VHS was upgraded to, lets say, VHS-X, offering higher quality, do you think people would have switched the way they switched to DVDs? That's the point here why people upgraded and why VHS can't be compared to DVD. Blu Ray doesn't have this advantage over DVD.

I think even your assumptions about VHS are probably off the mark as well. Hmmm, lets see...In the US, the penetration rate of those things you say no one liked was in 90% of households. My last VCR could rewind an entire T-180 tape back in about a minute, a far cry from your 15 minute comments. Hyperbole is often unhelpful in these kinds of discussions.

Unless your memory was cloudy, there were higher resolution sources in the market the same time as VHS was. It was called the Laserdisc. While it enjoyed a lot of popularity with videophiles, it was a resounding thud in the market place. Do you remember S-VHS? That would be your VHS-X. If my memory recalls, that was a resounding thud as well. So maybe folks made the switch for different reasons than you think. How about format maturity? You know, the thing that happens when all of the studios back catalog titles in their vaults have already been released time and time again, much like what has happened with DVD. Sales began to slide on both blank and pre recorded movie tapes, and every one in the food chain began to scramble for another cash cow that VHS was. De ja vu, it is happening all over again. See a trend here?

So I've said pretty much all that I wanted. Those who agree with me will see my point, those who have bought Blu Ray probably don't want to see it. Sure, DVD format will be replaced, and so will Blu Ray..that's how it is with technology. But that's when time comes, and now with 400.000 DVDs vs 7000 Blu Ray on Amazon, I think we still have a long way to go. :17:

Your constant citation of 400,000 of mostly inactive titles is both misleading, and at the same time irrelevant. Your look is a reverse look of DVD, not a forward look. The DVD marketplace is not selling all of those 400,000 titles or we would not be seeing year over year declines in sales since 2005. The only things selling right now is the top 100 most recently released titles according to my copy of NDP. The rest of those 399,900 titles are basically collecting dust, and are a mere pittance of overall DVD sales. Funny, that was the same thing happen to VHS in 1997 when good ole DVD hit the marketplace.

With only 7000 titles, Blu ray has a pretty long future ahead of it. Even if there are never 400,000 Blu ray titles on the market, Blu ray will do quite well. It does not have to rely on a vast amount of catalog titles to succeed, it has all these other things to bring to the table other than just titles - things that could have never been done on DVD. D-Box, 3D, 4K, high resolution music and the use of meta data extension for more audio channels already built into the format gives it far more room to grow than good ole DVD every had.

These formats are just like actors. They enjoy their celebrity for a time, and then they fade away as they age to be replaced by something younger, sexier, and generally more appealing. While there are old things that can live (like vinyl) their best years are behind them, not in front of them. Some folks minds are like that as well.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-07-2010, 08:00 PM

DVD movies had a lot to offer compared to VHS. VHS quality plain sucked (both video & sound), as you already know. Not only that, DVD was more practical, compact and offered language selection and interactive menus, not to mention it wasn't backward compatible with VHS. When you think about it, there is a lot going for DVD in that a big chunk of the popultion is probably very happy with DVD as far a video quality goes, especially here in Europe where, as you said people don't have massive screens which show off high def. I'm not going to talk about sound because 90% of the consumer base won't hear or won't have the gear to exploit high def sound.

While I agree that VHS video did suck, this is a fifth quarter observation. A great majority of folks that bought into VHS did know it sucked at the time did they? Nope, they had nothing really to compare it to. Those of us who had Laserdisc at the time knew VHS sucked, because we actually had something to compare it to. The sound however was another story. VHS sound was no slouch, especially HiFi tracks. If they were not subject to the Dolby encoder/decoder, they could sound quite good actually. In my early days of recording digital audio, I used a Toshiba VCR's(with a PCM encoder) Hifi tracks as a digital backup to magnetic tape with very good results.

AA, there was a lot going for VHS when DVD hit the market. Most folks were quite satisfied with the PQ on their analog televisions at the time. Most folks believed that DVD was not even going to be as good as Laserdisc, but that proved wrong in the end. Most people did not want to re buy their movies nor buy an expensive player to play them. I might add, if people were so satisfied with DVD, then why the sales drop? And how do you explain the sales rise of Blu ray if everyone is so satisfied with DVD?

A friend of mine bought a 32" 720p screen back in 2007. We made comparison of DVD vs BR with irobot and granted, the picture was a little better but I wouldn't go as far as saying it was night and day. As for audio (something we all know so well as audiophiles), the public just isn't interested in small incremental increases in sound quality.

Now you and I both know a 720p television is not a good source for comparison to DVD. Blu rays are a 1080p encoded source that will have considerable degredation with down rezz'd to 720p. You are throwing away quite a bit of encoded information in your comparison, which gives DVD and undeserved additional advantage. Besides that, 720p televisions are at commodity prices here in America, nobody really wants them. A 32" screen is a waste of time with Blu ray resolution, you are not going to see all of the pixels of information on a screen that small. Did you follow the three times height rule for Blu ray viewing? Probably not. Following this rule does make the comparison a little more fair. 5.1 surround sound systems are almost as prevalent as DVD players in this country, it might be different in Europe though.

I'm just saying, DVD has a lot going for it. Granted, I'm already looking forward to buying BR and actually withholding DVD purchases in favour of future BR purchases, but hey, I'm not average Joe who likely (at this stage anyways) doesn't see massive benefits in buying BRs when DVDs are cheaper.

Time does not stand still. When these same people go out into the stores and find Blu ray player prices are really close to DVD player prices, what do you think they will buy - yesterday technology, or tomorrows? Studies have found that once a consumer pulls the plug on a BR player, then tend to buy less DVD's. That my friend is what is happening to DVD sales. In 2005 DVD sales experienced a 5% decline. In 2008 a full year after Bluray hit the market, those losses were close to 20%. As of last year, it was a full 25%. Bluray sales are up 76% over last year, which was up 200% from the year before. Clearly folks are moving away from DVD towards Blu ray. There will always be those left kicking and screaming away with legacy technology, but eventually they will have to move over was all of the support for the product dries up. Already three manufacturers are going to quit making DVD players with more to follow from what I am told.

Lastly, Europe is always behind this country in adopting new audio and video devices made in Japan. So it is natural that Europe is still pretty entrenched with DVD, while America is moving on to Blu ray. However, in saying that, Blu ray adoption is higher on both sides of the Atlantic than DVD was at the same time in its life span according to my NDP data, and that is thanks to the PS3.
To put even more perspective to this - Blu ray is having a faster adoption period than DVD, the CD, high-definition TV sets and several other common household technologies.

So perhaps you both may not have as wide a perspective in your own backyards that you think you do. Europe is a big place, and it does not just circle around the UK right?

audio amateur

03-08-2010, 07:56 AM

VHS sound was no slouch, especially HiFi tracks. If they were not subject to the Dolby encoder/decoder, they could sound quite good actually. In my early days of recording digital audio, I used a Toshiba VCR's(with a PCM encoder) Hifi tracks as a digital backup to magnetic tape with very good results.
I'll take your word for it. I suppose the poor sound I remember is probably from re recorded tapes or recorded programs on tv.

if people were so satisfied with DVD, then why the sales drop? And how do you explain the sales rise of Blu ray if everyone is so satisfied with DVD?
I'm not saying BR sales aren't going to rise nor am I saying that DVD sales are going to drop. I'm saying DVDs are going to be around for a bit if their passing isn't forced, especially here in Europe.

Now you and I both know a 720p television is not a good source for comparison to DVD.
This is precisely my point, as you said yourself that the average screen here is smaller than they are in the US. DVD won't look as bad on a not so big screen, especially if the rez is 720p not 1080p. If I was to buy a sub 40" screen and knew I was going to be watching a good amount of standard def material, I would probably rather a 720p set over1080p.

You are throwing away quite a bit of encoded information in your comparison, which gives DVD and undeserved additional advantage. Besides that, 720p televisions are at commodity prices here in America, nobody really wants them. A 32" screen is a waste of time with Blu ray resolution, you are not going to see all of the pixels of information on a screen that small.
Again, you are reinforcing my point concerning the necessity of BR with smaller sets. On a side note, he bought the set in 2007 when prices were still fairly dear, which is why it isn't 1080p. Even today, there's probably a good proportion of 32" 720p sets vs 32" 1080p.

Did you follow the three times height rule for Blu ray viewing?
Are you refering to screen size vs. viewing distance? If yes I can tell you we weren't sitting miles away so any gain in PQ was clearly visible.

Already three manufacturers are going to quit making DVD players with more to follow from what I am told.
Despite the reported issues of DVD playback quality on BR players, I wouldn't have thought any of them are still making DVD players given the backward compatibility.

Lastly, Europe is always behind this country in adopting new audio and video devices made in Japan. So it is natural that Europe is still pretty entrenched with DVD, while America is moving on to Blu ray.
Indeed

However, in saying that, Blu ray adoption is higher on both sides of the Atlantic than DVD was at the same time in its life span according to my NDP data, and that is thanks to the PS3. To put even more perspective to this - Blu ray is having a faster adoption period than DVD, the CD, high-definition TV sets and several other common household technologies.
I'm guessing that's because BR players are backward compatible with DVDs, because of the popularity of the PS3 and because BR players are fairly cheap at this point.

So perhaps you both may not have as wide a perspective in your own backyards that you think you do. Europe is a big place, and it does not just circle around the UK right?
Actually, I can also speak for Switzerland and France as I'm there half the year. When I head back, I'll have a good look in video stores and tell you the position of BR relative to DVDs. Here, BR shelving represents maybe 20% of the total shelving (DVD + BR) in the popular high street shops. I've no doubt that figure is higher in the US.
I have however, noticed the spread of BR on such online sellers as Amazon UK. They had massive sales last Christmas, often up to 70% off on popular titles.

BTW, seeing as I can use you:) is there any chance you can get info on release dates for the Alien quadrilogy films in BR?

pixelthis

03-08-2010, 12:22 PM

So I just went to Amazon and checked Blu Ray content..nearly 7000 titles! Impressive. Then I checked DVDs (and that excludes DVD n Blu combos) - nearly 400.000 :17: Doesn't look like DVDs are going anytime soon

THIS is an exelent example of false logic.
You make a connection that is baseless(the number of discs out there) to how popular
and long lasting they will be, with no facts to support your supposition, and then declare it to be true, without proving anything.
Sound like a few on this board.
There were quite a few laserdiscs out there, took a year for them to leave.
Turntables are still out there, but the mass market disapeared overnight.
CAR SALES must be up , and there is a market for new cars.
Why? Every vacant lot in the country has new cars parked all over it.
Truth is one day broadband will "hatch", and hard medias' days will be numbered,
probably in months , if not days.
Also, you think that just because there are 400,000 titles out there that there is a market for that many discs.
The market is driven by demand, not by what manufacturers want to sell.
If they make too much of something, they are either stuck with it, or its freebie time.
Or they can be party poopers and burn the excess, like farmers did during the great depression.
How much of something there is has nothing to do with how long it will be around, how popular it is, or anything, really.
This is what happens when a bunch of socialist teachers, who understand nothing
about economics, try to teach it to students.
Get a book by MILTON FREIDMAN, or Harry Brown, anybody who is not a member
of the DEMOPUBLICAN party.
And when you learn basic economics, try to teach sir talky.
Then get back to me.:1:

klif570

03-08-2010, 04:15 PM

Well, they have the statistic's to prove so, and I am just guessing, but you have not conducted your study on the issue have you?

As they say, lies, damn lies and statistics.. Sometimes they are far from the truth.

I think the words With 20 per cent of the population still stuck in poverty, the report calls for sweeping reform of the tax and welfare systems under which higher earners would finance more generous, universal benefits. sums it up nicely.

Claiming benefits doesn't really mean that people live in poverty. It's different in every country, but even if you have a minimum-average salary you are in many cases still entitled to benefits in the UK. Could they define poverty I wonder? One might be poor because he doesn't have a TV, or one might be poor because he/she is a single parent and can't work.

Just to correct you on some basic misconceptions, our poverty rate is 13.2% not 15%, and the poorest in this country are not Latinos.

And here it says it's 23.8%..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_Kingdom#Comparisons_with_oth er_countries

I know you gotta love statistics..

My racial and cultural background would make that quite impossible.

Good to hear that :smile5:

My last VCR could rewind an entire T-180 tape back in about a minute, a far cry from your 15 minute comments.

1 minute or 15, the point here is that no one liked how inconvenient VHS were..and how much more DVDs had to offer, unlke Blu Ray, which only offers higher quality.

Hyperbole is often unhelpful in these kinds of discussions.

I was emphasising the point there. And in fact, compared to DVDs they did feel like taking 15 bloody minutes..and then you find out you just rewinded the wrong side haha...

Your constant citation of 400,000 of mostly inactive titles is both misleading, and at the same time irrelevant.

Fair enough, I can compare Lovefilm with over 60.000 DVDs and over 1000 Blu Ray..

Anyway, from what I've read it seems like Blu Ray is going to conquer the States much quicker than Europe

nightflier

03-08-2010, 04:15 PM

Now DVD has matured, sales are slowing, nobody is making much money from it, and it is not secure, so it is a persistant target for piracy. Everyone wants it to go away, the studios, the retailers, and the manufacturers.

If piracy indeed is so prevalent, then the inability to copy BR may be its Achilles Heel. Since DVD has been cracked, and piracy doesn't seem to go away, then there will always be room for DVD and it may never completely go away... not until HD digital content matures and that is effectively cracked. Kind of ironic really.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-08-2010, 07:15 PM

As they say, lies, damn lies and statistics.. Sometimes they are far from the truth.

Yes, and sometimes they are the truth, and you have folks in denial. Every source I read pointed to 20%+ poverty rate, they all can't be lies right?

Claiming benefits doesn't really mean that people live in poverty. It's different in every country, but even if you have a minimum-average salary you are in many cases still entitled to benefits in the UK. Could they define poverty I wonder? One might be poor because he doesn't have a TV, or one might be poor because he/she is a single parent and can't work.

The reasons one is poor is pretty irrelevant in this discussion. The with 20% of the population in poverty is.

And here it says it's 23.8%..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_Kingdom#Comparisons_with_oth er_countries

I know you gotta love statistics..

Wikipedia is good for static or non movement information, but when you start to quote them for stats that change from year to year, it is completely unreliable. The reliability comes when a year the stats were derived from is clearly shown. You noticed that I went directly to an online version of your local news to get my information. Wiki does not state the year those stats were from, but mine stats pretty clearly it is from 2007-2008. The 13.2% poverty rate for the US is from 2008, and here is a wiki timeline that tracks the year

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_poverty_rate_timeline.gif

1 minute or 15, the point here is that no one liked how inconvenient VHS were..and how much more DVDs had to offer, unlke Blu Ray, which only offers higher quality.

I think you missed my point. Folks do not buy products they find inconvenient, and they certainly do not buy 200 million of them world wide. Rewinding came with the turf, and frankly I never heard anyone complain about rewinding a tape since it was done automatically. The two main reasons I heard for moving to the new format was better quality, and smaller footprint when stored.

I was emphasising the point there. And in fact, compared to DVDs they did feel like taking 15 bloody minutes..and then you find out you just rewinded the wrong side haha...

I do not understand this, but okay. I didn't know there is a wrong side on VHS, the cartridge only had one way to fit in the player.

Fair enough, I can compare Lovefilm with over 60.000 DVDs and over 1000 Blu Ray..

Don't be ridiculous. 60,000 DVD titles are not active anywhere on this planet. According to my NDP report that covers world wide disc sales, only the last 100 released titles are active and generate revenue. The remaining titles basically are dormant, or selling just a small trickle of units. With Blu ray being a newer format, there are far more titles that are currently active than DVD according to my latest sales snapshot for the last quarter of 2009.

Anyway, from what I've read it seems like Blu Ray is going to conquer the States much quicker than Europe

This is par for the course for all AV formats that have been manufactured over the years, there is nothing new about this statement. DVD sales will drop quicker here, and last there, just like VHS did. VHS stayed active in Europe long after it died here in the states. DVD grew quicker in the states, and Europe was slow and last to adopt the format.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-08-2010, 07:16 PM

If piracy indeed is so prevalent, then the inability to copy BR may be its Achilles Heel. Since DVD has been cracked, and piracy doesn't seem to go away, then there will always be room for DVD and it may never completely go away... not until HD digital content matures and that is effectively cracked. Kind of ironic really.

What is ironic(but predictable) is how you can screw up a perfectly good discussion with a pile of stupidity.(a really bad habit of yours)

SACD died from lack of support from the music industry, not because it could not be copied. You cannot build a format on the backs of boutique recording companies. Sony didn't really support the format with the proper post production tools until it was too late in the game.

klif570

03-09-2010, 04:38 AM

Wikipedia is good for static or non movement information, but when you start to quote them for stats that change from year to year, it is completely unreliable.

Blame it on Wiki! I doubt very much those numbers were from the great depression period.

I think you missed my point. Folks do not buy products they find inconvenient, and they certainly do not buy 200 million of them world wide. Rewinding came with the turf, and frankly I never heard anyone complain about rewinding a tape since it was done automatically. The two main reasons I heard for moving to the new format was better quality, and smaller footprint when stored.

You heard? Ok, well, I heard something different.

Don't be ridiculous. 60,000 DVD titles are not active anywhere on this planet. According to my NDP report that covers world wide disc sales, only the last 100 released titles are active and generate revenue. The remaining titles basically are dormant, or selling just a small trickle of units. With Blu ray being a newer format, there are far more titles that are currently active than DVD according to my latest sales snapshot for the last quarter of 2009.

Haha, and when you're faced with facts you call me ridiculous. Fair enough, well for your information, out of those 60.000 DVDs I can rent any one I want! And my choice for Blu Ray here is just above 1000.

I think I shall leave you in your dream world..really no point in discussing anything further.

nightflier

03-09-2010, 10:51 AM

What is ironic(but predictable) is how you can screw up a perfectly good discussion with a pile of stupidity.(a really bad habit of yours)

SACD died from lack of support from the music industry, not because it could not be copied. You cannot build a format on the backs of boutique recording companies. Sony didn't really support the format with the proper post production tools until it was too late in the game.

...that still doesn't change the fact that DVD is the pirate's choice. As long as piracy is such a rampant problem, DVD will remain. That is, until someone finds a better way to crack BR. That's what is so ironic.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-09-2010, 11:07 AM

Blame it on Wiki! I doubt very much those numbers were from the great depression period.

The water must be cold in de- nial. Even with faced with facts you are still in denial.

You heard? Ok, well, I heard something different.

Great BS move.

Haha, and when you're faced with facts you call me ridiculous. Fair enough, well for your information, out of those 60.000 DVDs I can rent any one I want! And my choice for Blu Ray here is just above 1000.

I think I shall leave you in your dream world..really no point in discussing anything further.

What facts???? You made a statement with no factual support whatsover. Sure you can rent anyone of 60,000 DVD's, but the reality is even in rentals there are not 60,000 active titles, which makes your point is misleading(I see a trend here). So your MO is to throw up a bunch of numbers and pretend that is your facts. That is pretty ludicrous, and armed with the data it borders on foolishness.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-09-2010, 11:09 AM

...that still doesn't change the fact that DVD is the pirate's choice. As long as piracy is such a rampant problem, DVD will remain. That is, until someone finds a better way to crack BR. That's what is so ironic.

Two stupid statements in a row, you are on a roll chum!

nightflier

03-09-2010, 11:38 AM

Why don't you just address the point instead of dismissing it with insults?

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-09-2010, 11:44 AM

Why don't you just address the point instead of dismissing it with insults?

You are going to have to make a point first. What you posted here does not make any sense whatsoever, and I am dis-inclined to debate any more of you stupid uneducated gut feeling, non accurate, opinions. I have wasted enough of my precious time with your senseless BS.

nightflier

03-09-2010, 12:15 PM

Did you not say that piracy is a huge problem?

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-09-2010, 12:34 PM

Did you not say that piracy is a huge problem?

Move on, I not going to bite. I am quite frankly tired of you.

nightflier

03-09-2010, 12:41 PM

So you're not going to address the point? Then what the heck are you doing here? I thought this was a discussion forum. Why don't you just grow a pair and address the point I brought up.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-09-2010, 12:50 PM

So you're not going to address the point? Then what the heck are you doing here? I thought this was a discussion forum. Why don't you just grow a pair and address the point I brought up.

I already told you why, so I will make it plainer to you see you are having some difficulties. I DO NOT WANT TO DEBATE WITH YOU, YOU POINTS ARE LAME, UNEDUCATED, OFTEN STUPID AND UNIFORMED, AND I AM SICK OF YOU.

You need to clearly get this message, and stay out of my pants.

nightflier

03-09-2010, 12:55 PM

I doubt others here consider the point about piracy that lame. It directly addresses your point that BR is going to be the only medium left in a very short while, which is simply not true.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-09-2010, 01:15 PM

I doubt others here consider the point about piracy that lame. It directly addresses your point that BR is going to be the only medium left in a very short while, which is simply not true.

chirp, chirp,chirp,chirp,chirp, chirp,chirp,chirp,chirp, chirp,chirp,chirp,chirp, chirp,chirp,chirp,

kevlarus

03-09-2010, 01:27 PM

So would I! LOL
When the content owners say they are going to be through with disc based technology after Blu ray(and have shown they mean it by developing their own system of delivery), you can pretty much bet they mean it.

.
.

With only 7000 titles, Blu ray has a pretty long future ahead of it. Even if there are never 400,000 Blu ray titles on the market, Blu ray will do quite well. It does not have to rely on a vast amount of catalog titles to succeed, it has all these other things to bring to the table other than just titles - things that could have never been done on DVD. D-Box, 3D, 4K, high resolution music and the use of meta data extension for more audio channels already built into the format gives it far more room to grow than good ole DVD every had.

This is my issue with where the content holders are heading, vis a vis, episodes/movies downloaded to your device (blu/ps3/computer). So you have this huge storage device and X amount of movies etc. that you've bought. First, you'll need at least 2 of those devices so you can mirror them (IF the device supports that) -- if the drive ever dies (being electronic, it will at some point), you just lost all those movies. Now if the download allowed 1 copy to be burned (blu burners are just coming out now), then you get to have a physical copy to play at your leisure. I do not subscribe to the idea of a central repository of "did you buy this title" due to security concerns etc. etc. as most here should be aware.

And having DVDs around is a moot point. Writing is on the wall. Price differential between the players is dropping like a rock allowing the content producers to retire the DVD (as far as their concerned) for future releases. And, unfortunately, so many will think it cool/great to download movies over the internet. They'll prolly want to watch a copy of the HD/5.1 on their 1.25" cell phone over bluetooth or something crazy. :(

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-09-2010, 02:41 PM

This is my issue with where the content holders are heading, vis a vis, episodes/movies downloaded to your device (blu/ps3/computer). So you have this huge storage device and X amount of movies etc. that you've bought. First, you'll need at least 2 of those devices so you can mirror them (IF the device supports that) -- if the drive ever dies (being electronic, it will at some point), you just lost all those movies. Now if the download allowed 1 copy to be burned (blu burners are just coming out now), then you get to have a physical copy to play at your leisure. I do not subscribe to the idea of a central repository of "did you buy this title" due to security concerns etc. etc. as most here should be aware.

The studios are not going to support this model going forward. Keychest and DECE are streaming formats that will allow a viewer to purchase a "liscense" to view movies and televisions shows anywhere they want, on any device they want without downloading and storing it. So there is no need for big hard drives for storage or backup. If you bought a liscense for a Disney movie like Up, you will be able to watch it on cable, iphone, your Blu ray player, your computer, your mobile video device, or any other device that is capable of streaming video and audio. This is were we are headed going forward.

And having DVDs around is a moot point. Writing is on the wall. Price differential between the players is dropping like a rock allowing the content producers to retire the DVD (as far as their concerned) for future releases. And, unfortunately, so many will think it cool/great to download movies over the internet. They'll prolly want to watch a copy of the HD/5.1 on their 1.25" cell phone over bluetooth or something crazy. :(

You and I agree about DVD, the writing is on the wall for that format. Personally if people think it is cool to stream movies to the cell phone or mobile devices, I say more power to them, and they should be able to do it. It would not be my choice of how to view movies or televlsion programs, but for those who want it, I say they should be able to have it.

Digital sell through of movies I think it pretty dead at this point, but digital download renting is holding pretty steady.

HD is pretty useless on a 1.25" screen, there are not enough pixels in a screen that small to make HD useful.

nightflier

03-10-2010, 01:54 PM

chirp, chirp,chirp,chirp,chirp, chirp,chirp,chirp,chirp, chirp,chirp,chirp,chirp, chirp,chirp,chirp,

So since you don't have a response, you resort to making animal noises? Lil't, this doesn't help you at all:

1. It's not even childish, it's animal-like. That's a new low for you.

2. It shows that when you can't argue your point you resort to petty behavior (something I've pointed out many times already)

3. It weakens the other arguments you put forth (as I've said before)

4. It makes the other posters wonder if this is how you'll ultimately respond to their posts in the end and thus stifles conversation (this is hardly what we need on this site)

5. It tarnishes your reputation (something I've warned you about as well).

6. It proves once again that you're a hypocrite (how many times will I have to point that out?)

I'm not going to resort to giving you negative marks, since that's what you would do (you certainly have taken that low road many times before). Look, you're only damaging yourself and your argument. All I'm asking is that you respond to the post. If not, then why are you here? Is it just to kill any meaningful discussion?

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-10-2010, 02:36 PM

So since you don't have a response, you resort to making animal noises? Lil't, this doesn't help you at all:

1. It's not even childish, it's animal-like. That's a new low for you.

2. It shows that when you can't argue your point you resort to petty behavior (something I've pointed out many times already)

3. It weakens the other arguments you put forth (as I've said before)

4. It makes the other posters wonder if this is how you'll ultimately respond to their posts in the end and thus stifles conversation (this is hardly what we need on this site)

5. It tarnishes your reputation (something I've warned you about as well).

6. It proves once again that you're a hypocrite (how many times will I have to point that out?)

I'm not going to resort to giving you negative marks, since that's what you would do (you certainly have taken that low road many times before). Look, you're only damaging yourself and your argument. All I'm asking is that you respond to the post. If not, then why are you here? Is it just to kill any meaningful discussion?

Your not going to resort to giving negative marks, you just made six of them stupid. And I do not care what you think, how about that. Now take your sorry a$$ elsewhere and drop this. It is a waste of time, I do not have time to partake in your stupidity.

How many times must I say this?

nightflier

03-10-2010, 07:17 PM

I was talking about greenies. Unlike you I'm not going to resort to giving out negative ones.

Why don't you just answer the point? Is it because you don't have a response?

klif570

03-11-2010, 04:23 AM

What facts???? You made a statement with no factual support whatsover. Sure you can rent anyone of 60,000 DVD's, but the reality is even in rentals there are not 60,000 active titles, which makes your point is misleading(I see a trend here). So your MO is to throw up a bunch of numbers and pretend that is your facts. That is pretty ludicrous, and armed with the data it borders on foolishness.

I can't rent them? They're not active titles? Aww, ignorance is a bliss.. Guess Lovefilm is a con site then, fooling approx. one million customers every year in 4 different countries. I suggest you sign up and find out yourself.

Man this thread says alot about you..and so does your username. Why don't you change it to ''Sir Terrence the Hypocrite''? That'd be more accurate

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-11-2010, 09:10 AM

I can't rent them? They're not active titles? Aww, ignorance is a bliss.. Guess Lovefilm is a con site then, fooling approx. one million customers every year in 4 different countries. I suggest you sign up and find out yourself.

I didn't say you couldn't rent them, I said all 60,000 of the titles are not being actively rented, can you understand the difference? Well maybe not.....

Man this thread says alot about you..and so does your username. Why don't you change it to ''Sir Terrence the Hypocrite''? That'd be more accurate

What do you know about accuracy, you cannot even understand basic English!

Now I see why you are defending DVD so vigorously. You are so freakin behind the AV technology curve, and have a mind so stuck in the past, you just cannot fathom anything beyond DVD. I call that acute shortsightedness.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-11-2010, 09:14 AM

I was talking about greenies. Unlike you I'm not going to resort to giving out negative ones.

Why don't you just answer the point? Is it because you don't have a response?

I do not want your damn greenies. And until you can post links and verifiable facts, then I do not want to discuss or debate anything with you. Your opinions, gut feeling, and unverifiable secret support is of no interest to me. I want to see facts, figures and opinions supported by facts and figures, otherwise drop dead!

nightflier

03-11-2010, 01:09 PM

You want facts & figures? How about your own words:

1. Didn't you say that piracy was a huge problem?

2. Didn't you say that the studios want to move away from DVD because it's been cracked? And didn't you say that BR is a lot harder to crack?

3. Doesn't logic then follow that pirates favor what they can crack?

Therefore DVD will be there as long as BR is not easily cracked. BR will never completely eliminate DVD because of that simple fact. And the reason this is so important is because BR only has a short window before digital content becomes the medium of choice for the general public. When that happens BR will remain only for the collectors and we may very well be making the same arguments we are here with DVD about its future, especially if by that time BR is easily cracked. And yes, that is especially ironic.

One more thing: all your assumptions are based on what you think you know about the American market for movie distribution. Every time someone, anyone, from across the pond challenges that reality, you get your panties in a bunch and you debase the whole conversation with insults and your holier-than-thou posturing. Maybe you ought to stop with the isolationist and insular talk - it's not only false, but highly insulting. In the end it really reflects poorly on the rest of us here. I sure hope the other posters from abroad don't think you represent the point of view of every other American.

klif570

03-11-2010, 01:54 PM

I didn't say you couldn't rent them, I said all 60,000 of the titles are not being actively rented

Fantastic stuff. I think if people didn't want DVDs and wanted more films in Blu Ray, it's the one site that would reflect this very well.

My mistake - they claim the number to be 65.000. And not only that, they advertise the number of the DVDs they have, not the number of Blu Ray. Blu Ray's there if you want it, but it's the number of DVDs that attracts most people. But maybe I am wrong, maybe one million people are keep renting 1000 discs in Blu Ray.

Now I see why you are defending DVD so vigorously. You are so freakin behind the AV technology curve, and have a mind so stuck in the past, you just cannot fathom anything beyond DVD. I call that acute shortsightedness.

If that will put this nonsense to an end, let's say so. I am way behind technology and I love it. I love my DVDs and I'm even thinking of going back to Vinyl.

klif570

03-11-2010, 02:29 PM

I sure hope the other posters from abroad don't think you represent the point of view of every other American.

No, I don't think he represents that. But indeed a good example how ignorant one can be.

Woochifer

03-11-2010, 03:54 PM

Therefore DVD will be there as long as BR is not easily cracked. BR will never completely eliminate DVD because of that simple fact. And the reason this is so important is because BR only has a short window before digital content becomes the medium of choice for the general public. When that happens BR will remain only for the collectors and we may very well be making the same arguments we are here with DVD about its future, especially if by that time BR is easily cracked. And yes, that is especially ironic.

Right, and video pirates are such a huge part of the buying public that the studios will want to keep DVD production going indefinitely to serve that market, even after Blu-ray sales surpass DVDs. :rolleyes:

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-11-2010, 04:27 PM

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-11-2010, 04:43 PM

Fantastic stuff. I think if people didn't want DVDs and wanted more films in Blu Ray, it's the one site that would reflect this very well.

Is this the only site on the web that rents Blu ray and DVD's? I think not. Netflix, and Blockbuster also are rental sites and they have seen the rental business grow tremendously in their Blu ray side, and just modestly for the DVD side. The things that you cannot seem to get in your thick skull is that everything related to DVD is trending either flat or downward. That is the beginning of the end, just like simular condition existed when DVD began to overtake VHS. Since you neither have the official numbers like I have, and you have offered nothing that disputes what I have presented(except you own out of touch opinion) I think this part of the discussion is pretty much over.

My mistake - they claim the number to be 65.000. And not only that, they advertise the number of the DVDs they have, not the number of Blu Ray. Blu Ray's there if you want it, but it's the number of DVDs that attracts most people. But maybe I am wrong, maybe one million people are keep renting 1000 discs in Blu Ray.

So what you are telling me is that every one of the 65,000 titles is being actively rented every day? Once again(and taps on that thick noggin) there are more titles on DVD because the format has been in existence for 13 years, and not for anything else but that. These are just number of availability, not numbers of active titles brightness. Next point is 1000 Blu ray titles means that is all they have had a chance to purchase, not reflective of the number of titles available. That would be about 6- 7000 if I am not mistaken.

It is quite possible with 20 million Blu ray players out there that 1 million people could have 1000 Blu ray titles active. Blu ray is still at the curiosity stage, not like DVD where renters have come to expect a certain quality through numerous exposure. Remember, this is a new format still, and the rental market is still young and not very mature.

A little critical thinking goes along way:yesnod:

If that will put this nonsense to an end, let's say so. I am way behind technology and I love it. I love my DVDs and I'm even thinking of going back to Vinyl.

The fact that you admit this is also reflective of your knowledge on this issue. It is behind the times plain and simple.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-11-2010, 04:45 PM

No, I don't think he represents that. But indeed a good example how ignorant I can be.

This is a perfect statement(in bold) to say in the mirror 5 million times for mental reinforcement.

nightflier

03-11-2010, 05:37 PM

lil't, if you won't discuss the points, then why did you start this thread? Are you just so full of yourself that you want to hear more of it? Or is it simply that I brought up something completely logical you can't wish or argue away? No matter how much you wine, each and every refusal to respond as well as every insult only weakens your position. Good luck with that.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-11-2010, 05:40 PM

lil't, if you won't discuss the points, then why did you start this thread? Are you just so full of yourself that you want to hear more of it? Or is it simply that I brought up something completely logical you can't wish away?

I don't mind discussing the points, just not with you.

nightflier

03-11-2010, 05:53 PM

Right, and video pirates are such a huge part of the buying public that the studios will want to keep DVD production going indefinitely to serve that market, even after Blu-ray sales surpass DVDs. :rolleyes:

The studio's control over production can only apply to new releases. Yes, we can probably agree with the studios making it so, but what about the back catalog? More to the point, if only new movies will be released exclusively on BR at some point in the future (hasn't happened yet), how long will that last before digital downloads surpass it? It seems to me that BR has only a very small time window to completely replace DVD, and that window is shrinking everyday. With the continued losses from piracy on the back catalog and any new releases still coming to DVD, BR could very well only have a very short lifespan as the leading source of movies. Let's not forget that DVD sales still dominate, especially world-wide.

nightflier

03-11-2010, 05:55 PM

I don't mind discussing the points, just not with you.

...you can't think of a good response at all?

Woochifer

03-11-2010, 09:19 PM

The studio's control over production can only apply to new releases. Yes, we can probably agree with the studios making it so, but what about the back catalog? More to the point, if only new movies will be released exclusively on BR at some point in the future (hasn't happened yet), how long will that last before digital downloads surpass it? It seems to me that BR has only a very small time window to completely replace DVD, and that window is shrinking everyday. With the continued losses from piracy on the back catalog and any new releases still coming to DVD, BR could very well only have a very short lifespan as the leading source of movies. Let's not forget that DVD sales still dominate, especially world-wide.

Your grasp of the market conditions is fleeting at best. As I've told you numerous times before, the new releases market represents the vast majority of the market. It's the new release window that generates by far the biggest share of revenues, and always has. The best selling videos have always been new releases, and there has always been a major dropoff in sales when they get reissued later on in a different format.

The back catalog has already been mined through numerous times, and the rate of return declines with every successive re-release (unless you add something new of value). What titles do you think are on all these movie streaming services? Basically, the same titles in the DVD clearance bins that hardly anyone buys anymore. Catalog titles generate revenue -- that's why the studios continue to issue them on Blu-ray. But, those revenues pale in comparison with what new releases generate.

The decades old techie pipe dream of digital distribution taking over the market is totally delusional until that market segment actually begins to outgrow Blu-ray. Last time I checked, Blu-ray's growth rate was 4X greater. The math for digital distribution won't even begin to compute until the growth rates switch places. Techies talk about this as if it's fait accompli, yet the actual sales trends indicate that the clock for the digital takeover hasn't even begun counting down yet.

nightflier

03-11-2010, 09:24 PM

Woochifer

03-11-2010, 10:03 PM

As usual, you're just looking at sales figures, which represent only a fraction of what's downloaded each and everyday. And let me guess, US data only? Let's take a more global view of this, shall we? Just because new releases generate the lion's share of revenue, this says hardly anything about what people are downloading or watching.

Provide some actual concrete data to bolster your points, otherwise it's just mindless babbling on your part. As usual, you're trying to prop up the absurd contrarianism that consumer behavior and market trends bear no relationship to one another. And if you buy into the notion that each illegal download represents a lost sale, then you're basically in agreement with the argument that the RIAA uses in its lawsuits against downloaders.

I don't know why the point about the higher revenue potential for new releases is always so controversial to you. It holds true, no matter what global market you look at. A movie release will always generate the greatest revenues during its initial release, because that's simply when the audience interest peaks. Consumers are not as interested in catalog titles. That's why older titles migrate over to the $5 bins at Walmart -- because consumer interest has waned.

Why would this not be the case among video pirates as well? The old Napster music charts were always dominated by newer top selling mainstream releases, and the peer counts on torrent trackers also seem to peak with newer titles and drop way off with older titles.

klif570

03-12-2010, 02:21 AM

Netflix, and Blockbuster also are rental sites and they have seen the rental business grow tremendously in their Blu ray side, and just modestly for the DVD side.

Those two are American, and like Nightflier said you're only comparing American market, but if you take a map..well, you'll find there are other countries too!

So what you are telling me is that every one of the 65,000 titles is being actively rented every day? Once again(and taps on that thick noggin) there are more titles on DVD because the format has been in existence for 13 years, and not for anything else but that. These are just number of availability, not numbers of active titles brightness. Next point is 1000 Blu ray titles means that is all they have had a chance to purchase, not reflective of the number of titles available. That would be about 6- 7000 if I am not mistaken.

It is quite possible with 20 million Blu ray players out there that 1 million people could have 1000 Blu ray titles active. Blu ray is still at the curiosity stage, not like DVD where renters have come to expect a certain quality through numerous exposure. Remember, this is a new format still, and the rental market is still young and not very mature.

To hell with your moronic logic. Can you then answer why Lovefilm advertises the number of dvds they have and not the number of Blu Ray? You can't! You either turn it round and start talking about other rentals, or feed us with statistics (haha).. Lovefilm shows the trend in Europe and if that hurts you, well I'm sorry, but DVDs are still popular here.

klif570

03-12-2010, 02:28 AM

I don't know why the point about the higher revenue potential for new releases is always so controversial to you. It holds true, no matter what global market you look at. A movie release will always generate the greatest revenues during its initial release, because that's simply when the audience interest peaks. Consumers are not as interested in catalog titles. That's why older titles migrate over to the $5 bins at Walmart -- because consumer interest has waned.

Why would this not be the case among video pirates as well? The old Napster music charts were always dominated by newer top selling mainstream releases, and the peer counts on torrent trackers also seem to peak with newer titles and drop way off with older titles.

So doesn't it mean that as long as there are people interested in older films (even a few years older for that matter), the DVDs will still be there? I'm not one who only buys new films, in fact I prefer older ones, classics as well. So people like me have tons of DVDs to choose from and only a small number in Blu Ray. And what's the point of watching a black and white in Blu Ray anyway?

kevlarus

03-12-2010, 09:59 AM

Perhaps there is a wider selection of Blu Ray discs in the US, but when I go and check local stores in the UK, I see one shelf of Blu Ray discs and the whole aisle of DVDs.. and if I want a particular film, it's somehow magically been released on DVD and not Blu Ray.

Maybe you should look at amazon.com / amazon.co.uk more closely. Amazon UK actually has more blu-ray titles available (4500+ english) and in the US (around 3600 english).

It will save you a trip to the local brick & mortar at least.

Woochifer

03-12-2010, 12:41 PM

So doesn't it mean that as long as there are people interested in older films (even a few years older for that matter), the DVDs will still be there? I'm not one who only buys new films, in fact I prefer older ones, classics as well. So people like me have tons of DVDs to choose from and only a small number in Blu Ray.

DVDs will still be there because the studios produced thousands of copies that are still sitting on retail shelves and in warehouses, but that doesn't mean that they generate much interest or sales. As I pointed out earlier, those DVD bargain bins exist because these older titles won't sell unless the prices get slashed. Retail stores are not libraries where inventories sit forever, they are places of commerce where shelf space is expected to turn product placement into sales and do so in a timely manner. Things that sell get restocked, things that don't get discontinued and price-reduced for quick sale. Stores are rapidly expanding their Blu-ray sections because that's increasingly the more productive use of valuable shelf space.

Older titles routinely go out of print after their sales dip below a certain threshold. Just because ~110,000 R1 DVD titles have been released does not mean that all or even most of them are currently available. VHS had well over double that number of titles released, but that didn't stop stores from discontinuing them or studios from deleting them from their catalogs once it became clear that format's sales decline was terminal.

Complaints like yours also accompanied the DVD format during its early stages. It takes time for the back catalog to fill in. You're only looking at the current state of the title availability on Blu-ray, not where it will be next year or five years from now when the DVD format will likely be at an end.

And what's the point of watching a black and white in Blu Ray anyway?

What's the point of HD? What's the point of watching an old B&W film on a big movie theater screen? What's the point of watching something on DVD when VHS was "good enough" (a common refrain on this board 10 years ago)?

Last time I checked, B&W movies were filmed and projected using 35mm film -- a medium whose resolution happens to be greater than even today's 1080p format. B&W cinematography can be every bit as compelling an art form as color (with many directors making B&W movies as an artistic choice even after the advent of Technicolor), so why would you not want Blu-ray for black and white movies?

Color or not, film is a high resolution medium and the DVD format does not even come close to capturing the detail that's in those 35mm negatives. Blu-ray picks up much of the fine grained details and does a much better job at conveying the look and feel of quality film projection. If you don't see the benefit of higher picture resolution, then you might as well stick with analog TV and DVDs.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-12-2010, 02:58 PM

Those two are American, and like Nightflier said you're only comparing American market, but if you take a map..well, you'll find there are other countries too!

You are wrong again. You know, in American baseball you only get three strikes. You have enough strikes to put you out of the game forever. NDP reports cover worldwide rental markets, and world wide sales markets, not just the American market. No where on this planet is their 65,000 active rental titles. NO WHERE!!!

To hell with your moronic logic. Can you then answer why Lovefilm advertises the number of dvds they have and not the number of Blu Ray?

Since I do not work in the marketing department of Lovefilm, I cannot answer that question only they can.

You can't! You either turn it round and start talking about other rentals, or feed us with statistics (haha).. Lovefilm shows the trend in Europe and if that hurts you, well I'm sorry, but DVDs are still popular here.

Let's get one thing straight here. Europe is no trend setter when it comes to video technology. They are followers, which makes them consistantly behind the curve on everything video. DVD was firmly entrenched here in America before it got started in Europe. Its penetration in the US was about 35% before it was 5% in Europe. Blu ray does not upset that CE history.

Lovefilm does not show a trend in Europe, it shows a rental trend for Lovefilm as a business only. Everyone in Europe does not rent from Lovefilm do they? Lovefilm is in the business of renting DVD's, a market segment that is 10 years old in Europe(and 13 y/o in America). The only thing that your 65,000 titles number tells me is that they in 10 years or so have accumulated 65,000 titles for their customers to access, and that is all. With Blu ray being introduced much later than here, they have only managed to purchase 1000 Blu ray titles (out of 7000 released) since they have adopted the format for rental. Every rental concern in the world that is more than 10 years old will have the same condition. That is all these two numbers you point out tell me. Variety in the rental sector of this business is key to success. The Blu ray rental market there is far smaller than it is in America, and basically that is attributed to Blu ray catching on later than it has here. The DVD is in a faster decline here because America adopted it sooner and faster, and it is maturing as a format sooner than it is in Europe because of that same reason.

If you want to look at a trend, you analyze how many of those 65,000 titles is generating revenue for your business. According to NDP (which just so happens to cover rental activity of Lovefilm), they are only generating big revenue from new releases, moderate revenue from the top 100-300 previously released titles(those released within two to three years), and next to nothing from everything after that. For the brain challenged, that means that a great number of those 65,000 titles are not seeing much action at all, and are being recycled out of the inventory as new titles come online. That is how the rental market works.

Now pull up your chain uneducated one, you are about to go to school on how to identify a trend. Sales of DVD dropped 9% in Europe last year, 6% in 2008, and 5% in 2007. Sales of DVD players have dropped 6% last year, 4% in 2008, and were essentially flat in 2007. Put on your glasses so it helps you see a trend. DVD sales are falling year over year in your region(it dropped 13% here last year), and the year to year accumlated loss is 20% total shinkage of the market since 2007(its 25% here in the same period). DVD players have suffered a total year to year loss of 10% since 2007(it's 16% here). Year do not get year to year losses like this on a "popular" format, it happens to "mature" formats. DVD is in decline in your neck of the woods just like it is here, except it is more dramatic here because it was released earlier here, and grew faster here earlier. What is happening to DVD is called a downward trend.(for you nearly brain dead that do not like to think)

Blu ray disc sales Europe in 2009 grew 167% from 2008, which was close to 100% over 2007.

http://www.cdrinfo.com/Sections/News/Details.aspx?NewsId=26897

When you analyze both DVD and Blu ray three years after their respective release in your region, Blu ray has outsold DVD by five times over in that first three years.

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/16390.cfm

What is happening to Blu ray here and there is called an upward trend (for you nearly brain dead that do not like to think). I hate to tell you something lightweight one, but stats are the ONLY way to define and recognize a trend, not just looking at some number without any further analysis. NDP compiles the most extensive sales and rental figures from ALL OVER THE WORLD for various appliances, cars and consumer electronic(and more). So when you make the lame claim that I am only looking at America, it makes me laugh my a$$ off. The data I am getting is WORLDWIDE data, not just American data.

Before you attempt to debate anyone on anything related to AV, you need a few more years of school. Any person who is still looking for a DVD, and dedicated CD player in a Blu ray world where all three can be played on the same machine is obviously so behind the curve they can easily be considered technologically retarded. This approach alone shows how backwards your thinking really is. And what seals that opinion is when you call Digital to analog converters decoders.

I think what upsets you is that while you are stuck at DVD, the rest of the world has moved on to Blu ray. And now you are here where the conversation is mostly focused on Blu ray still talking about DVD. You are a real fish out of water aren't you.

Oh, and by the way, a Denon 1704 is not a HD player by any means. Progressive scanning DVD players are not HD players, only Blu ray players are. A HDMI 1.1 equipt DVD player does not mean it is HD.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-12-2010, 03:09 PM

And what's the point of watching a black and white in Blu Ray anyway?

The point of watching black and white on Blu ray comes from the reality that it looks better on Blu ray than it ever will on DVD. Why? Because the video encoders used for Blu ray (AVC and to a lesser extent VC-1) are better at encoding and preserving the greyscale than older MPEG-2 encoders for DVD are. There is also no filtering of the high frequencies before encoding which preserves detail and fine detail like DVD has to do. There is no widespread use of edge enhancement on Blu ray like there are on DVD to cover up the fact the high frequency filtering has been used.

A little technical knowledge goes a long way.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-12-2010, 03:18 PM

...you can't think of a good response at all?

Wooch has already spelled it out for you why I will not respond. His words were and I quote

"Provide some actual concrete data to bolster your points, otherwise it's just mindless babbling on your part."

Now that is two of us telling you exactly the same thing. When are you going to get it? When are the stupid pills going to wear off?

klif570

03-12-2010, 03:31 PM

DVDs will still be there because the studios produced thousands of copies that are still sitting on retail shelves and in warehouses, but that doesn't mean that they generate much interest or sales.

But that's what I said all along, that DVDs will remain and only DVD players will be written off. What would be the point of making Blu Ray players backwards compatible then.

Sure, at one point the DVD format will eventually come to an end, but it's not going to be 5 years like someone predicted. And let's not forget I compared the UK market, another forum member compared Switzerland. That's Western Europe; and other countries to the East of Europe will take even longer to move to Blu Ray format, if they will at all

klif570

03-12-2010, 04:19 PM

You are wrong again. You know, in American baseball you only get three strikes. You have enough strikes to put you out of the game forever.

And I thought peanuts were boring..

Since I do not work in the marketing department of Lovefilm, I cannot answer that question only they can.

Thanks for admitting. The answer is very simple though, they advertise what sells and what attracts people.

Let's get one thing straight here. Europe is no trend setter when it comes to video technology. They are followers, which makes them consistantly behind the curve on everything video.

Yep, we are. A bit like you follow the Japanese.

DVD was firmly entrenched here in America before it got started in Europe. Its penetration in the US was about 35% before it was 5% in Europe. Blu ray does not upset that CE history.

Let's assume the US has switched to the new format. Does that mean DVDs are written off? Even though they are popular in other countries?

Lovefilm does not show a trend in Europe, it shows a rental trend for Lovefilm as a business only. Everyone in Europe does not rent from Lovefilm do they?

And where do they rent from then? Tescos?! Haha they don't even stock Blu Ray yet.
As I said before, it shows the trend for the UK, Ireland, Germany, and, my mistake, the whole Scandinavia..so more than 4 countries. Some of the wealthiest countries in Europe. Now would you like to know how the rest of Europe is doing? The poorer countries? Eastern Europe? They will take even longer to switch to Blu Ray.

The Blu ray rental market there is far smaller than it is in America, and basically that is attributed to Blu ray catching on later than it has here. The DVD is in a faster decline here because America adopted it sooner and faster, and it is maturing as a format sooner than it is in Europe because of that same reason.

Yes, I know. That's what I've been saying myself, that while Blu Ray seems to be popular there, it's just not on the same level in Europe.

According to NDP (which just so happens to cover rental activity of Lovefilm), they are only generating big revenue from new releases, moderate revenue from the top 100-300 previously released titles(those released within two to three years), and next to nothing from everything after that.

Next to nothing? Why do they stock thousands of older films then? Films that were released ages before Lovefilm opened up? If everyone only wants the new stuff there's no point to stock anything ancient.

Now pull up your chain uneducated one, you are about to go to school on how to identify a trend.

Not long ago you were making animal sounds on here.. Worry about your chain a little more

Any person who is still looking for a DVD, and dedicated CD player in a Blu ray world where all three can be played on the same machine is obviously so behind the curve they can easily be considered technologically retarded.

ATTENTION! You just made a fool out of yourself, in public. Right in front of fellow audiophiles. Most Blu Ray players are rubbish at playing back CDs. Even DVD players are, and nothing can match a dedicated CD spinner. How about you get some style and look up names like Vincent, Naim, Arcam? And I'm talking CD players only.

I think what upsets you is that while you are stuck at DVD, the rest of the world has moved on to Blu ray.

No, what upsets you is that I am perfectly happy with DVDs and CDs. And you just can't stand it when people don't upgrade. Not long ago you were asking Smoke to get one. You really do have some sort of Blu Ray upgrade phobia.

Oh, and by the way, a Denon 1704 is not a HD player by any means. Progressive scanning DVD players are not HD players, only Blu ray players are. A HDMI 1.1 equipt DVD player does not mean it is HD.

And what's that supposed to mean? That you don't agree with how Denon class their products? It says Full-HD 1080p upscalling and I'm perfectly happy with the quality. It's DVD-1740, by the way.

One more thing, I've made my point, and you've just proved to be a stuck up fanboy of Blu Ray. Are you gonna cry that I feel no need to upgrade? Or are you gonna call me names and say I'm retarded because I'm happy with DVDs and CDs?

One thing's for sure, I'm not going to lower myself to your level and waste my time arguing with you

Woochifer

03-12-2010, 05:16 PM

But that's what I said all along, that DVDs will remain and only DVD players will be written off. What would be the point of making Blu Ray players backwards compatible then.

Sure, at one point the DVD format will eventually come to an end, but it's not going to be 5 years like someone predicted. And let's not forget I compared the UK market, another forum member compared Switzerland. That's Western Europe; and other countries to the East of Europe will take even longer to move to Blu Ray format, if they will at all

The five year time window has precedent behind it. The hardware is the precursor to what happens with the software. You can pretty much count on DVD players having about two years of shelf life left. At that point, nearly every optical video player sold will be Blu-ray. The studios will not indefinitely support the DVD format once all of the new hardware supports Blu-ray, and the DVD format itself continues to lose market share.

If current growth rates continue, the Blu-ray format will surpass the DVD in two or three years. Once Blu-ray gains the market lead, then industry support for the DVD format will evaporate in a hurry. Retailers will stop carrying them, and the studios will stop releasing new releases in the DVD format, which will effectively kill the format. It doesn't matter what country you're in, that's what has happened with every other defunct consumer entertainment format, why would the DVD be any different?

Woochifer

03-12-2010, 06:08 PM

And what's that supposed to mean? That you don't agree with how Denon class their products? It says Full-HD 1080p upscalling and I'm perfectly happy with the quality. It's DVD-1740, by the way.

It means that something that's true HD has to have HD resolution content in the first place. Taking a fuzzy image and rescaling it to 1080p does not make it 1080p.

I have the equivalent model to the Denon DVD-1940Ci, and even good upscaling DVD players (which the Denons are) don't come close to what Blu-ray is capable of. Upscaling is one of the biggest misnomers in all of consumer electronics because any HDTV has to rescale and upconvert a non-native video signal just to display it. The DVD format is a native 480i format, and the fanciest upscaling won't change that. They cannot manufacture image details that aren't there in the original bits.

As T pointed out, the video content on a DVD uses far more heavy handed processing to get around the format's inherent limitations. Transferring a movie onto Blu-ray requires much less processing, and preserves far more of the original image integrity.

If you already own a HDTV and care even the slightest bit about picture quality, it just makes no sense whatsoever to stay completely entrenched with the DVD format and not even consider going to Blu-ray. Especially with many Blu-ray player prices now well below $150USD.

One more thing, I've made my point, and you've just proved to be a stuck up fanboy of Blu Ray. Are you gonna cry that I feel no need to upgrade? Or are you gonna call me names and say I'm retarded because I'm happy with DVDs and CDs?

It's not being a fanboy to point out the market reality that Blu-ray is on pace to take over the market lead in less than three years, at which point the DVD format's demise will be sealed. If you want to stick with DVDs indefinitely, that's your choice. But, just be aware that the market does not sit still and your viewing options with the DVD format will definitely dwindle as studios put more of their catalog DVD titles out of print, as rental outlets begin paring down their DVD inventory, and eventually as studios stop making DVDs altogether.

nightflier

03-12-2010, 08:00 PM

Let's get back to reality.

1. Just because he (and every other person who owns movies) may one day no longer be able to purchase a player that won't play BR disks, means very little because it will still play DVDs. This is a crucial difference from the comparison with VHS - DVD players could not play the old format.

2. The slower adoption rate of BR in the rest of the world could just as well mean that they never will convert completely to BR. In many other industrialized countries the problems with download speeds and infrastructure are far less serious. Downloads could very well become the dominant format there and then it will be those countries that will be pointing out to us that we're stuck with a niche technology. The argument that the rest of the world is backwards or behind because they aren't adopting the latest technology is bigoted, ignorant, and the reason we are so often labeled "ugly Americans." You two exemplify the worst stereotypical traits towards the rest of the world.

3. Whether you want to admit it or not, the fact that BR isn't conveniently cracked continues to be an impediment to it's widespread adoption.

4. Along with the technological arrogance you two exhibit, you also exhibit it's associated sibling: a most irritating and stereotypical economic arrogance. You presume that the rest of the world is going to follow the US in an expensive technology, when acceptable alternatives are less expensive.

5. And for the trifecta, you also exhibit an unabashed arrogance with your devil-may-care consumerism and waste, something else the rest of the world so resents about us. The very real possibility that the rest of the world doesn't dispose of technologies as readily as we do, for practical reasons as well as environmental ones, is so anathema to your world view, that you can't even fathom its possibility. As hard as the pill is for you to swallow, the rest of the world may very likely stay with DVD simply because it's good for others, and the sacrifice to stay with the alternative of upconversion may be a compromise they're willing to make to meet that end.

6. Finally, what you two just can't get through your arrogant heads is that most of these impediments can be addressed with downloads. They:

- will soon be true HD
- are technologically feasible
- can more easily be cracked and re-distributed
- are better for the environment
- are more economically sound to implement
- and will benefit more people in more places

Perhaps we should take a closer look at what is happening in a country that is indeed more advanced than we are: Japan.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-12-2010, 11:00 PM

And I thought peanuts were boring..

And I thought peanut heads were boring. Now we have an empty head that want to compete for the title.

Thanks for admitting. The answer is very simple though, they advertise what sells and what attracts people.

That is a naive answer if I ever saw one. It is a typical answer from a person that is clueless about the AV business. To say you have 65,000 DVD only means one thing. You have a variety of DVD releases that you have purchase for rental over the last 10 years. A product that is not growing, but has matured and is dying a slow death just like VHS did when DVD came to the marketplace. It is amazing that my kids have learned to connect information dots, but you haven't.

Yep, we are. A bit like you follow the Japanese.

So you don't think you follow the Japanese? Will dimwit, that CD player you are looking for, it was based on a design patented by Sony, a Japanese company. Philips didn't introduce their design until three years after Sony introduced theirs. The current players are based on Sony's design, and the only contributions that were patented by Philips is the disc manufacturing process. Sony could have easily done this with Pioneer instead of Philips.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_disc

That Denon DVD player you just purchased. That is a Japanese product designed by two Japanese company called Toshiba and Sony.(DVD is a combination of Sony's MMCD and Toshiba's SDD)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DVD

That VHS you probably owned in the past(or still own) It was invented by a Japanese company called JVC. Beta was created by a Japanese company called Sony

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VHS

Now Philips has introduced a product themselves called DCC, but that was a miserable failure in the market place, a market place where a certain company dominated with the walkman. That company was a Japanese company called Sony.

So dingy, everyone has been following the Japanese, not just me, but you as well.

Let's assume the US has switched to the new format. Does that mean DVDs are written off? Even though they are popular in other countries?

I think you are interchanging what is in wide use for what is popular. An iphone is popular as its sales are growing like roaches breed. The same with Blu ray. The DVD is not popular, it is in wide usage because the technology has been around longer than Blu ray. Popular products do not have year to year sales losses on both players and software, it has sales growth(see Cell phones). In Europe DVD is on a downward trend on both software and hardware, so it is not popular anymore. When somebody looks at a sales chart of the DVD format as a whole, they see decline, not incline. Putting the dots together, DVD is suffering declines in Japan, the US, and Europe as well, so it is time to be written off. Now you may be white knuckling DVD, but apparently nobody else is.

And where do they rent from then? Tescos?! Haha they don't even stock Blu Ray yet. As I said before, it shows the trend for the UK, Ireland, Germany, and, my mistake, the whole Scandinavia..so more than 4 countries. Some of the wealthiest countries in Europe. Now would you like to know how the rest of Europe is doing? The poorer countries? Eastern Europe? They will take even longer to switch to Blu Ray.

Two problems with this response. Europe is not 4 countries(or regions) it is 50. Lovefilm only represents 50% of the rental business in those 4 countries(or regions), not 100%. So with only 50% of the market, you cannot use Lovefilm as the barometer for anything, you have to look at the whole pie. What you said earlier is that Lovefilm is a trend for Europe, and now you are back peddling it to four countries and a small region. Rentals are not going to save a dying format, VHS is a prime example of that.

Yes, I know. That's what I've been saying myself, that while Blu Ray seems to be popular there, it's just not on the same level in Europe.

Sorry, with Blu ray sales jumping 167% over last years, and DVD declining 9% last year, that is not a sign of popularity, but a sign of a maturing format that is bowing slowly to another format. It is predicted that Blu ray disc sales will surpass DVD in the next three years if Blu ray continues to grow and DVD continues to decline. Once Blu ray sales reach parity to DVD, say good bye to DVD. This goes for DVD players as well.

Next to nothing? Why do they stock thousands of older films then? Films that were released ages before Lovefilm opened up? If everyone only wants the new stuff there's no point to stock anything ancient.

You do not seem to know the history of your own rental company do you? Lovefilm was born out of mergers, not grown from the ground up. The older titles are likely inventory gained from those mergers. According to NDP, new releases make up a majority of rental income, while the remaining titles make up a pittance in comparison. I didn't say the older titles were NEVER rented, I said they do not generate very much income. Since you do really understand the rental business, I'll explain why the older titles are there. It is called the bread and butter of the rental industry, and its name is variety and depth. Keep in mind, they only have 65,000 titles out of 110,000 released on the DVD format. Titles that are not moving are recycled out of rotation in favor of a newer release. Netflix has 102,000 titles in comparison to Lovefilms 65,000. Netflix is so much larger than Lovefilm, they likely generate more income on older titles than Lovefilm does which is why their inventory is so much larger. Lovefilm has 1.2 million customers, and Netflix has roughly 10 million.

Not long ago you were making animal sounds on here.. Worry about your chain a little more

This is a rather stupid statement to make since this site has no way of transmitting my voice to you. Do you want to try again?

ATTENTION! You just made a fool out of yourself, in public. Right in front of fellow audiophiles. Most Blu Ray players are rubbish at playing back CDs. Even DVD players are, and nothing can match a dedicated CD spinner. How about you get some style and look up names like Vincent, Naim, Arcam? And I'm talking CD players only.[/quote]

You can't afford any of those CD players, so that point is irrelevant. You are not looking for an audiophile CD player, so to even bring that up is disingenious at best. Pioneer makes Blu ray players that have received rave reviews on their CD playback as well as their DVD and Blu ray playback. All of those CD players you mentioned costs far more than a most Blu ray players, and can only play a CD and that is it. CD players don't do multichannel audio, they are confined to two channel digital audio. I just ordered a Pioneer BDP-09FD, and I'll bet it will keep up with many high end CD players within its price range when playing back CD's.

16/44.1khz audio is yesterday. We are in the day of 24/96khz audio and 24/192khz audio on the Blu ray format. No CD player can playback at those bit and sample rates, they are confined to redbook CD audio. The best audio I have ever heard didn't come from a CD player, it came from my Oppo SE Blu ray player on the Blu ray format playing back TrondheimSolistene: Divertimenti. When you compare the 5.1 24/192khz audio to the 2.0 16/44.1khz CD layer on the SACD, it is no contest. Dedicated CD players are nearly extinct anyway. Read the review and weep.

http://www.blu-ray.com/movies/TrondheimSolistene-Divertimenti-Blu-ray-Review/1097/

I think this sentence is really telling

On the caboose, of course, was the CD layer included on the SACD. Not horrible, but I cannot understand listening to this content when 24/192 PCM is included. Maybe in the car?

No, what upsets you is that I am perfectly happy with DVDs and CDs. And you just can't stand it when people don't upgrade. Not long ago you were asking Smoke to get one. You really do have some sort of Blu Ray upgrade phobia.

The difference between you and I is I know when to hold it, I know when to support it, and I know when to abandon a dying format. It is pure arrogance to think I would be upset over what you do. I do not care what you do, you can stay behind the curve forever as far as I am concerned. But you have to face reality. Both DVD and CD are on their way out of here, and sticking with dying formats is a dead end(no pun intended). I am not upset with you, I feel sorry for you that you are so backwards that you would invest in formats that are on their way out, and not in ones that are here already and growing.

If you think I am so hung up about what you do, go drown yourself and see if I shed a tear.

And what's that supposed to mean? That you don't agree with how Denon class their products? It says Full-HD 1080p upscalling and I'm perfectly happy with the quality. It's DVD-1740, by the way.

Full HD 1080p does not need upscaling. Since Wooch has already covered this bit of ignorance, there is no need for me to ground your head into the pavement on it.

One more thing, I've made my point, and you've just proved to be a stuck up fanboy of Blu Ray. Are you gonna cry that I feel no need to upgrade? Or are you gonna call me names and say I'm retarded because I'm happy with DVDs and CDs?

And you are a fanboy of old technology, so what! I say you are technologically retarded because you don't know a DAC from a decoder, or a upscaled image from a native one.

One thing's for sure, I'm not going to lower myself to your level and waste my time arguing with you

Lower yourself, dude you just hit the education jackpot here. Instead of arguing, maybe you should be reading and learning. You don't seem to know anything about what you are arguing about anyway. Oh, let the door hit you on the way out.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-12-2010, 11:05 PM

nightflier

03-13-2010, 02:03 PM

Well we know you're not interested in anything that doesn't agree with your world-view, but for the rest of the posters here and the OT, I think it's pertinent.

Hey don't feel too bad, since it talks about arrogance, selfishness, and greed, most of it does pertain to you.

Woochifer

03-13-2010, 03:55 PM

Let's get back to reality.

As I've indicated before, back up your points with concrete facts and actual trend info, otherwise it's just more pointless pontificating on your part. So many of the points that you repeatedly state over and over have zero basis in reality, other than your own wishful thinking. The world doesn't revolve around the ideological rantings of techies, or is that news to you?

1. Just because he (and every other person who owns movies) may one day no longer be able to purchase a player that won't play BR disks, means very little because it will still play DVDs. This is a crucial difference from the comparison with VHS - DVD players could not play the old format.

What good does that do if the studios pull the plug on the DVD format? Once that happens, your universe of availability is limited to whatever already on store shelves -- and that inventory won't take long to absorb. All you have to do is look at the timing of when support for the audio cassette and VHS formats got discontinued, which was not long after they lost their respective market leads.

2. The slower adoption rate of BR in the rest of the world could just as well mean that they never will convert completely to BR. In many other industrialized countries the problems with download speeds and infrastructure are far less serious. Downloads could very well become the dominant format there and then it will be those countries that will be pointing out to us that we're stuck with a niche technology. The argument that the rest of the world is backwards or behind because they aren't adopting the latest technology is bigoted, ignorant, and the reason we are so often labeled "ugly Americans." You two exemplify the worst stereotypical traits towards the rest of the world.

Oh please. Using hard facts about sales and consumer behavior is a sign of being the "ugly American"? So much for reality.

3. Whether you want to admit it or not, the fact that BR isn't conveniently cracked continues to be an impediment to it's widespread adoption.

Like I've asked before, where's the evidence that software pirates are the ones purchasing DVDs and keeping that format alive? This just defies simple math and logic. All it takes is one copy to get cracked and distributed through torrent trackers for an illegal download to make it way across the internet. I mean, if everybody needed to buy their own DVD copy, what's the point of illegal downloading?

Your ideological rants about this issue don't even register with the average consumer, most of whom don't visit torrent sites. Do you really think that an average consumer is going to choose a DVD over a Blu-ray just because it's easier to copy? If that's the case, then why does Blu-ray now make up the majority of sales for a lot of new releases?

4. Along with the technological arrogance you two exhibit, you also exhibit it's associated sibling: a most irritating and stereotypical economic arrogance. You presume that the rest of the world is going to follow the US in an expensive technology, when acceptable alternatives are less expensive.

Past is prologue. Then again, trend data doesn't mean anything to you, so that reference probably went over your head.

5. And for the trifecta, you also exhibit an unabashed arrogance with your devil-may-care consumerism and waste, something else the rest of the world so resents about us. The very real possibility that the rest of the world doesn't dispose of technologies as readily as we do, for practical reasons as well as environmental ones, is so anathema to your world view, that you can't even fathom its possibility. As hard as the pill is for you to swallow, the rest of the world may very likely stay with DVD simply because it's good for others, and the sacrifice to stay with the alternative of upconversion may be a compromise they're willing to make to meet that end.

Really? Show me a part of the world that where 8-track tapes, LPs, audio cassettes, Laserdiscs, CED discs, or any number of other defunct consumer formats currently dominate. Presuming that the rest of the world doesn't "dispose of technologies" is patently absurd. The timing of when technological transitions occur might vary from region to region, but that certainly doesn't mean that they don't occur. If anything, you're making a rather arrogant ugly American presumption here that the rest of the world has no desire to embrace newer technologies and is content with staying behind.

6. Finally, what you two just can't get through your arrogant heads is that most of these impediments can be addressed with downloads. They:

- will soon be true HD
- are technologically feasible
- can more easily be cracked and re-distributed
- are better for the environment
- are more economically sound to implement
- and will benefit more people in more places

Perhaps we should take a closer look at what is happening in a country that is indeed more advanced than we are: Japan.

Show me the evidence that this is actually having an impact on how consumers consume media other than short-form clips. All of your rantings are nothing more than end-state predictions, with absolutely nothing demonstrating how we're actually going to get there and no evidence that the we're even heading in that direction in any significant way. T and I have both indicated that downloads will someday be the primary media distribution, but you fall into the typical techie trap in presuming that manifest destiny is going to happen almost overnight. Past precedent and current trends and behavior don't seem to mean squat to you. Why you think you can make prognostications about the market on this basis is always an amusing exercise to witness.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-14-2010, 09:20 AM

Well we know you're not interested in anything that doesn't agree with your world-view, but for the rest of the posters here and the OT, I think it's pertinent.

You cannot speak for other posters, you can only speak for yourself. That is something you really should get into your thick head.

Hey don't feel too bad, since it talks about arrogance, selfishness, and greed, most of it does pertain to you.

You know nothing about me nitwit.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

03-14-2010, 10:37 AM

In Japan Blu ray has a wider market penetration than the US. HD DVD never found traction there, and DVD sales are falling like a rock. They purchase almost as many Blu ray discs as we do(they are in region 1 along with the US), and their population is a lot smaller. Sales of Blu ray recorders are jumping three figures year over year. They have a lot of Blu ray accessories that we do have here such as burners, 3D recorders and at least 1000 more Blu ray titles than we have. They also watch an insane amount of television as well. Blu ray is huge in Japan.

The amount of people using mobile devices for video is a lot higher as well. However much like here, it is short video's and television programming because the Japanese also spend an enormous amount of time watching television at home. They use their cell phones and mobile devices more for gaming and texting than for video. Gaming on phones is HUGE in Japan, especially among the young.

They also have a higher penetration of HDTV flat panels than we do(something in the neighborhood of 80%). They use Blu ray recorders, we use Tivo. The PS3 is huge there and so are its peripherals. They have a USB based HD television tuner, and a HD DVR kit for it, we are not likely to get either here.

As far as downloading movies, rentals are growing, but just like everywhere else, digital sell through is under the radar. Much like here, the Japanese like to own physical media for their movies more than a digital file.

Unlike the US, Japan embraces technology quicker, and has more of it. However if you were looking for a downloading and viewing movies silver bullet for mobile devices, you are barking up the wrong tree. Gaming is the rage there, and video is a distant second.

Woochifer

03-15-2010, 03:50 PM

The amount of people using mobile devices for video is a lot higher as well. However much like here, it is short video's and television programming because the Japanese also spend an enormous amount of time watching television at home. They use their cell phones and mobile devices more for gaming and texting than for video. Gaming on phones is HUGE in Japan, especially among the young.

The factor to consider with mobile devices is the usage pattern and where things have been headed. Portable gaming and music migrating over to smartphones is a plausible scenario simply because consumer behavior has been trending in that direction for decades.

On the gaming side, handheld gaming devices have sold in the millions since the days of Mattel Football. Gaming on a mobile phone is a simple outgrowth of a logical progression that went from the original Gameboy to the modern PSP and Nintendo DS platforms. People are already in the habit of using handheld devices for gaming, and the devices are widely accepted in the market.

On the music side, same thing. Since the early experiments with dash-mounted record players, audio has persistently moved in the direction of mobility. Dating all the way back to the introduction of the Sony Walkman, personal audio devices have increasingly dominated the audio market, along with the rise of the car audio market. Right now, the iPod alone generates 3X more revenue than the entire home audio component industry combined. Consumers have been in the habit of listening to their music on small portable devices. Migrating over to mobile phones would be consistent with consumer behavior and existing trends.

Video is the exact opposite. Every attempt to market portable video playback devices has met with lukewarm sales. Casio and Sony might have sold thousands of portable TV devices, but those sales paled in comparison to what they were selling on the audio side. All of the viewing studies indicate high usage of mobile and online video (Nielson's 2009 study found that over 50% of households watch online video regularly), but they indicate that viewing time remains very limited. Unlike audio, where primary listening has shifted away from the living room in a huge way, the trends on the video side have only reinforced the central TV as the primary viewing choice.