Gerald Cooperberg
02-27-2010, 07:20 PM
Okay, so the Academy Awards are coming up next Sunday, March 7th-- here's your chance to secure bragging rights for the next 12 months. I've seen most of the films this year, although I didn't catch up with any of the shorts like I usually do. For the major categories, I've broken it down Ebert-style into who I would give the award to, who I think the Academy will give the award to, and who I would've liked to see nominated in a perfect world. Feel free to add your own picks or just quibble with mine...
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Penιlope Cruz for Nine
Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air
Mo'Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: This race, like most of the acting categories, has been sewn up for months. Mo'Nique gives a riveting performance and surprises by plumbing depths that she previously hasn't shown, plus she has several of the kind of memorable monologues that are the Oscars' bread and butter. Out of the other nominees, I personally admired Vera Farmiga's performance in Up in the Air, which managed to be tough, weary, sensual, and real. The only puzzler here is Penιlope Cruz-- always reliable, she acquitted herself as best she could in the godawful Nine, but only Marion Cotilliard managed to transcend the material in that stinker. It makes me wonder if the voters have even seen the film.
Will win: It's Mo'Nique's world.
Should have been nominated: Inglorious Basterds' fine ladies didn't make it to the red carpet this year, but was there a more satisfying moment this year than Melanie Laurent's face rising up out of the smoke in that film's climactic scene? Oh well.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Matt Damon for Invictus
Woody Harrelson for The Messenger
Christopher Plummer for The Last Station
Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: Again, there's hardly suspense here. Christoph Waltz became an instant star when Basterds premiered at Cannes and has been the frontrunner ever since. Woody Harrelson gets a perfectly tailored and memorable role in The Messenger, and Stanley Tucci got to play both the sweetest (Julie & Julia) and creepiest (the nominated Lovely Bones) men on celluloid this year, but this is all Waltz. His crisp and craven Nazi Colonel Hans Landa, like Javier Bardem's Anton Chigurh from two years ago, is destined to become one of the cinema's most indelible villains.
Will win: Christoph in a Waltz (sorry, I couldn't resist).
Should have been nominated: Peter Capaldi got some great lines to wrap his brogue around in the razor-sharp satire In the Loop and didn't waste the opportunity. His "ministerial enforcer" Malcolm Tucker was cruel, profane, and riotously funny. Of course, I'm not sure if they could've found a clip that would've passed muster with the FCC had he gotten a nomination.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
George Clooney for Up in the Air
Colin Firth for A Single Man
Morgan Freeman for Invictus
Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: It's hard to argue with the sure winner, Jeff Bridges, who gives a valedictory performance that goes straight for the audience's heart. Still, Colin Firth quietly turned in a nervy performance of shockingly subte gravity. He's unlikely to win, but if I was giving the awards, he'd have some hardware by the end of the night.
Will win: Jeff Bridges, no doubt.
Should have been nominated: I beat the drum for Bronson, earlier this year, and I'll do it again here. Tom Hardy gives a brazen, fearless, physical performance that could have come from few other actors. And if he had pulled off a stunner and gotten a win as well as a nomination, I'd have loved to see him give an acceptance speech in character.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side
Helen Mirren for The Last Station
Carey Mulligan for An Education
Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: This is probably the only acting category that is close to competitive. Sandra Bullock is the populist favorite, but the smart money never counts out Meryl Streep. I personally found Bullock's performance to be awfully grating, but I suppose it was effective. Streep, for her part, utterly stole her film with a performance that seemed almost effortless. Mulligan and Sidibe are also both being deservedly recognized for star-making turns, and Helen Mirren devoured her role in the best way (as always). A very solid category, but I personally think that Streep was the best.
Will win: I'm going to gamble and say Meryl Streep. She was just too good.
Should have been nominated: Tilda Swinton was a fearless tour de force in the little-seen Julia (no, not the cooking movie). She gave a high-wire performance as a vulgar alcoholic caught up in a extortion scheme that spirals out of control. The several scenes in which you can see her calculating which ever-more-insane decision to make next are something to behold.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees:
Coraline Henry Selick
Fantastic Mr. Fox Wes Anderson
The Princess and the Frog John Musker and Ron Clements
The Secret of Kells Tomm Moore
Up Pete Docter
Which of the nominees I've seen: All but The Princess & the Frog.
Should win: This was an incredibly strong year for animated films, from the poignancy of Up to the inventive wonder of Coraline to the clever whimsy of Fantastic Mr. Fox to the stunning 2D compositions in The Secret of Kells, let alone several films that weren't even nominated. Up had more heart, but I don't think I saw anything quite as complex and beautiful as Kells. The visual design, evocative of moving stained glass, was awe-inducing.
Will win: Only one of these films crossed over and was also nominated in the Best Picture category... so it's gotta be Up.
Should have been nominated: Hayao Miyazaki delivered another classic with Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea, a loose retelling of Disney's version of The Little Mermaid. It was blissfully perfect and my favorite animated film this year hands down.
Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Ajami Israel
El Secreto de Sus Ojos Argentina
The Milk of Sorrow Peru
Un Prophθte France
The White Ribbon Germany
Which of the nominees I've seen: Only The White Ribbon and El Secreto de Sus Ojos.
Should win: Out of the two films I had a chance to see, there's no contest. El Secreto de Sus Ojos was an inventive thriller that started as a police procedural and evolved into something more meditative, but The White Ribbon was a masterful work of suspense and dread. I've also heard nothing but brilliant buzz about Un Prophθte.
Will win: The White Ribbon is surely the early favorite, but this is a category in which the voters are required to see every nominated film, and if Un Prophθte is as good as I've heard, I'm willing to risk a guess on it.
Should have been nominated: I've never understood the needlessly complicated rules that govern this category, and I'm told it wasn't even eligible, but Claire Denis' 35 Shots of Rum was absolutely great, a deliberately uncoiling story of love, family, time, and change. If films like that can't get recognized, something needs to change.
Documentary (Feature)
Nominees:
Burma VJ Anders Ψstergaard and Lise Lense-Mψller
The Cove Nominees to be determined
Food, Inc. Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
Which Way Home Rebecca Cammisa
Which of the nominees I've seen: Only The Cove.
Should win: Okay, I'm not really qualified to make an educated guess here, but The Cove was many things: an activist doc, a suspenseful reality thriller, and an intriguing character stud-- and all of them successfully.
Will win: The Cove, I think.
Should have been nominated: I've been dying to see Agnes Varda's The Beaches of Agnes and was surprised to see it passed over for a nomination, but that's cheating a little. Out of the films I've seen, I'd have to say Anvil!: The Story of Anvil, a heartwarming underdog story that's won over everyone I know who's seen it.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees:
District 9 Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
An Education Screenplay by Nick Hornby
In the Loop Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: In the Loop is dense and wicked, a tightly plotted satire filled with memorable dialogue that manages to accumulate a surprising gravity by the time it ends. It's exemplary.
Will win: Up in the Air is timely, and actually has a moving story to go along with its high concept. Add to that the fact that it was an early critical favorite that now looks unlikely to prevail in any other category, and I'd be surprised to see this award go to a different film.
Should have been nominated: Stephen Soderbergh's The Informant! managed to take a book that was already highly regarded as an unusual thriller that rose out of a story of corn-byproduct price-fixing and add to it a dimension of black comedy. Matt Damon should've gotten an acting nod and so should have the excellent script.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees:
The Hurt Locker Written by Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds Written by Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
A Serious Man Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Up Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: Boy, it's hard to pick against Inglorious Basterds here. Certainly it's got some of the best scenes of the year, and peerless dialogue. That said, the pacing is a bit lumpen and it's easy to forget that between those classic scenes, the script often seemed to lose its way. My preference is for the Coen Brothers' underrated A Serious Man, which didn't waste a word in building to an unexpectedly effective climax.
Will win: If The Hurt Locker picks up this award, then it's lights-out in the Best Picture race. I think Inglorious Basterds will probably keep things interesting, though.
Should have been nominated: Again, I think that 35 Shots of Rum was near-perfect storytelling, but if we're sticking to English-language films, how about Lynn Shelton's ingenious but unfortunately titled Humpday? She coaxes great performances out of unknown actors, but it's easy when they're working from a script that nails the uneasy dynamic between two male friends whose lives are inexorably growing apart.
Directing
Nominees:
Avatar James Cameron
The Hurt Locker Kathryn Bigelow
Inglourious Basterds Quentin Tarantino
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire Lee Daniels
Up in the Air Jason Reitman
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: The Hurt Locker's script has come under fire (pun partially intended) recently for the questionable authenticity of its characters, but that shouldn't diminish Kathryn Bigelow's achievement in creating one of the most pulse-poundingly suspensful movies in recent memory. Sequence after sequence ratchets up the intensity with great effectiveness. She's the clear winner here.
Will win: It's widely expected that Kathryn Bigelow will get the nod regardless of which film wins the Best Picture race.
Should have been nominated: Critics were divided on its talky script, but there's no question that Spike Jonze created a world in Where the Wild Things Are that perfectly captures the emotional gamut of its 8-year-old protagonist-- his boundless energy, wonder, anger, and petulance. And stylistically the film is superb, full of intricacy and immediacy.
Best Picture
Nominees:
Avatar James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
The Blind Side Nominees to be determined
District 9 Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
An Education Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
The Hurt Locker Nominees to be determined
Inglourious Basterds Lawrence Bender, Producer
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
A Serious Man Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
Up Jonas Rivera, Producer
Up in the Air Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: Anything but The Blind Side...? Seriously, though, I admire a good share of these films. Up continues Pixar's reign as the only consistent American animation studio, the Coen Brothers produced perhaps the film that they've been destined to make for their whole careers with A Serious Man, and District 9 proved that a sci-fi action flick can have a social agenda without beating the audience over the head with it. But for me, it's The Hurt Locker.
Will win: A week ago, I might've said The Hurt Locker, but I think the momentum's swung back to Avatar. It'll be a close race, but the chance to coronate the film that's already the biggest box-office draw of all time will be too much to pass up.
Should have been nominated: A Single Man, Where the Wild Things Are, Public Enemies, The White Ribbon, The Informant!, 35 Shots of Rum, Still Walking, Sugar, any of the hundreds of films that had to be more enjoyable than The Blind Side...
The rest of these are beyond my area of expertise, so I'll stick to predictions without breaking them down:
Art Direction
Nominees:
Avatar Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
Nine Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
Sherlock Holmes Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
The Young Victoria Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray
Prediction: Avatar
Costume Design
Nominees:
Bright Star Janet Patterson
Coco before Chanel Catherine Leterrier
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Monique Prudhomme
Nine Colleen Atwood
The Young Victoria Sandy Powell
Prediction: Coco Before Chanel
Makeup
Nominees:
Il Divo Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
Star Trek Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
The Young Victoria Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore
Prediction: Star Trek
Cinematography
Nominees:
Avatar Mauro Fiore
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Bruno Delbonnel
The Hurt Locker Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds Robert Richardson
The White Ribbon Christian Berger
Prediction: The White Ribbon
Film Editing
Nominees:
Avatar Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
District 9 Julian Clarke
The Hurt Locker Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
Inglourious Basterds Sally Menke
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire Joe Klotz
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Visual Effects
Nominees:
Avatar Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
District 9 Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
Star Trek Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton
Prediction: Avatar
Sound Editing
Nominees:
Avatar Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
The Hurt Locker Paul N.J. Ottosson
Inglourious Basterds Wylie Stateman
Star Trek Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
Up Michael Silvers and Tom Myers
Prediction: Avatar
Sound Mixing
Nominees:
Avatar Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
The Hurt Locker Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
Inglourious Basterds Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
Star Trek Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson
Prediction: Avatar
Music (Original Score)
Nominees:
Avatar James Horner
Fantastic Mr. Fox Alexandre Desplat
The Hurt Locker Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
Sherlock Holmes Hans Zimmer
Up Michael Giacchino
Prediction: Up
Music (Original Song)
Nominees:
Almost There from [/i]The Princess and the Frog[/i] Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Down in New Orleans from [/i]The Princess and the Frog[/i] Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Loin de Paname from [/i]Paris 36[/i] Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
Take It All from [/i]Nine[/i] Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) from [/i]Crazy Heart[/i] Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
Prediction: "The Weary Kind"
Short Film (Animated)
Nominees:
French Roast Fabrice O. Joubert
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty Nicky Phelan and Darragh O'Connell
The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) Javier Recio Gracia
Logorama Nicolas Schmerkin
A Matter of Loaf and Death Nick Park
Prediction: The Lady & the Reaper
Short Film (Live Action)
Nominees:
The Door Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
Instead of Abracadabra Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellstrφm
Kavi Gregg Helvey
Miracle Fish Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
The New Tenants Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson
Prediction: Instead of Abracadabra
Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominees:
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
Music by Prudence Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
Rabbit ΰ la Berlin Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra
Prediction: Rabbit ΰ la Berlin
-Coop
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Penιlope Cruz for Nine
Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air
Mo'Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: This race, like most of the acting categories, has been sewn up for months. Mo'Nique gives a riveting performance and surprises by plumbing depths that she previously hasn't shown, plus she has several of the kind of memorable monologues that are the Oscars' bread and butter. Out of the other nominees, I personally admired Vera Farmiga's performance in Up in the Air, which managed to be tough, weary, sensual, and real. The only puzzler here is Penιlope Cruz-- always reliable, she acquitted herself as best she could in the godawful Nine, but only Marion Cotilliard managed to transcend the material in that stinker. It makes me wonder if the voters have even seen the film.
Will win: It's Mo'Nique's world.
Should have been nominated: Inglorious Basterds' fine ladies didn't make it to the red carpet this year, but was there a more satisfying moment this year than Melanie Laurent's face rising up out of the smoke in that film's climactic scene? Oh well.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Matt Damon for Invictus
Woody Harrelson for The Messenger
Christopher Plummer for The Last Station
Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: Again, there's hardly suspense here. Christoph Waltz became an instant star when Basterds premiered at Cannes and has been the frontrunner ever since. Woody Harrelson gets a perfectly tailored and memorable role in The Messenger, and Stanley Tucci got to play both the sweetest (Julie & Julia) and creepiest (the nominated Lovely Bones) men on celluloid this year, but this is all Waltz. His crisp and craven Nazi Colonel Hans Landa, like Javier Bardem's Anton Chigurh from two years ago, is destined to become one of the cinema's most indelible villains.
Will win: Christoph in a Waltz (sorry, I couldn't resist).
Should have been nominated: Peter Capaldi got some great lines to wrap his brogue around in the razor-sharp satire In the Loop and didn't waste the opportunity. His "ministerial enforcer" Malcolm Tucker was cruel, profane, and riotously funny. Of course, I'm not sure if they could've found a clip that would've passed muster with the FCC had he gotten a nomination.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
George Clooney for Up in the Air
Colin Firth for A Single Man
Morgan Freeman for Invictus
Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: It's hard to argue with the sure winner, Jeff Bridges, who gives a valedictory performance that goes straight for the audience's heart. Still, Colin Firth quietly turned in a nervy performance of shockingly subte gravity. He's unlikely to win, but if I was giving the awards, he'd have some hardware by the end of the night.
Will win: Jeff Bridges, no doubt.
Should have been nominated: I beat the drum for Bronson, earlier this year, and I'll do it again here. Tom Hardy gives a brazen, fearless, physical performance that could have come from few other actors. And if he had pulled off a stunner and gotten a win as well as a nomination, I'd have loved to see him give an acceptance speech in character.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side
Helen Mirren for The Last Station
Carey Mulligan for An Education
Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: This is probably the only acting category that is close to competitive. Sandra Bullock is the populist favorite, but the smart money never counts out Meryl Streep. I personally found Bullock's performance to be awfully grating, but I suppose it was effective. Streep, for her part, utterly stole her film with a performance that seemed almost effortless. Mulligan and Sidibe are also both being deservedly recognized for star-making turns, and Helen Mirren devoured her role in the best way (as always). A very solid category, but I personally think that Streep was the best.
Will win: I'm going to gamble and say Meryl Streep. She was just too good.
Should have been nominated: Tilda Swinton was a fearless tour de force in the little-seen Julia (no, not the cooking movie). She gave a high-wire performance as a vulgar alcoholic caught up in a extortion scheme that spirals out of control. The several scenes in which you can see her calculating which ever-more-insane decision to make next are something to behold.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees:
Coraline Henry Selick
Fantastic Mr. Fox Wes Anderson
The Princess and the Frog John Musker and Ron Clements
The Secret of Kells Tomm Moore
Up Pete Docter
Which of the nominees I've seen: All but The Princess & the Frog.
Should win: This was an incredibly strong year for animated films, from the poignancy of Up to the inventive wonder of Coraline to the clever whimsy of Fantastic Mr. Fox to the stunning 2D compositions in The Secret of Kells, let alone several films that weren't even nominated. Up had more heart, but I don't think I saw anything quite as complex and beautiful as Kells. The visual design, evocative of moving stained glass, was awe-inducing.
Will win: Only one of these films crossed over and was also nominated in the Best Picture category... so it's gotta be Up.
Should have been nominated: Hayao Miyazaki delivered another classic with Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea, a loose retelling of Disney's version of The Little Mermaid. It was blissfully perfect and my favorite animated film this year hands down.
Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Ajami Israel
El Secreto de Sus Ojos Argentina
The Milk of Sorrow Peru
Un Prophθte France
The White Ribbon Germany
Which of the nominees I've seen: Only The White Ribbon and El Secreto de Sus Ojos.
Should win: Out of the two films I had a chance to see, there's no contest. El Secreto de Sus Ojos was an inventive thriller that started as a police procedural and evolved into something more meditative, but The White Ribbon was a masterful work of suspense and dread. I've also heard nothing but brilliant buzz about Un Prophθte.
Will win: The White Ribbon is surely the early favorite, but this is a category in which the voters are required to see every nominated film, and if Un Prophθte is as good as I've heard, I'm willing to risk a guess on it.
Should have been nominated: I've never understood the needlessly complicated rules that govern this category, and I'm told it wasn't even eligible, but Claire Denis' 35 Shots of Rum was absolutely great, a deliberately uncoiling story of love, family, time, and change. If films like that can't get recognized, something needs to change.
Documentary (Feature)
Nominees:
Burma VJ Anders Ψstergaard and Lise Lense-Mψller
The Cove Nominees to be determined
Food, Inc. Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
Which Way Home Rebecca Cammisa
Which of the nominees I've seen: Only The Cove.
Should win: Okay, I'm not really qualified to make an educated guess here, but The Cove was many things: an activist doc, a suspenseful reality thriller, and an intriguing character stud-- and all of them successfully.
Will win: The Cove, I think.
Should have been nominated: I've been dying to see Agnes Varda's The Beaches of Agnes and was surprised to see it passed over for a nomination, but that's cheating a little. Out of the films I've seen, I'd have to say Anvil!: The Story of Anvil, a heartwarming underdog story that's won over everyone I know who's seen it.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees:
District 9 Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
An Education Screenplay by Nick Hornby
In the Loop Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: In the Loop is dense and wicked, a tightly plotted satire filled with memorable dialogue that manages to accumulate a surprising gravity by the time it ends. It's exemplary.
Will win: Up in the Air is timely, and actually has a moving story to go along with its high concept. Add to that the fact that it was an early critical favorite that now looks unlikely to prevail in any other category, and I'd be surprised to see this award go to a different film.
Should have been nominated: Stephen Soderbergh's The Informant! managed to take a book that was already highly regarded as an unusual thriller that rose out of a story of corn-byproduct price-fixing and add to it a dimension of black comedy. Matt Damon should've gotten an acting nod and so should have the excellent script.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees:
The Hurt Locker Written by Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds Written by Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
A Serious Man Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Up Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: Boy, it's hard to pick against Inglorious Basterds here. Certainly it's got some of the best scenes of the year, and peerless dialogue. That said, the pacing is a bit lumpen and it's easy to forget that between those classic scenes, the script often seemed to lose its way. My preference is for the Coen Brothers' underrated A Serious Man, which didn't waste a word in building to an unexpectedly effective climax.
Will win: If The Hurt Locker picks up this award, then it's lights-out in the Best Picture race. I think Inglorious Basterds will probably keep things interesting, though.
Should have been nominated: Again, I think that 35 Shots of Rum was near-perfect storytelling, but if we're sticking to English-language films, how about Lynn Shelton's ingenious but unfortunately titled Humpday? She coaxes great performances out of unknown actors, but it's easy when they're working from a script that nails the uneasy dynamic between two male friends whose lives are inexorably growing apart.
Directing
Nominees:
Avatar James Cameron
The Hurt Locker Kathryn Bigelow
Inglourious Basterds Quentin Tarantino
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire Lee Daniels
Up in the Air Jason Reitman
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: The Hurt Locker's script has come under fire (pun partially intended) recently for the questionable authenticity of its characters, but that shouldn't diminish Kathryn Bigelow's achievement in creating one of the most pulse-poundingly suspensful movies in recent memory. Sequence after sequence ratchets up the intensity with great effectiveness. She's the clear winner here.
Will win: It's widely expected that Kathryn Bigelow will get the nod regardless of which film wins the Best Picture race.
Should have been nominated: Critics were divided on its talky script, but there's no question that Spike Jonze created a world in Where the Wild Things Are that perfectly captures the emotional gamut of its 8-year-old protagonist-- his boundless energy, wonder, anger, and petulance. And stylistically the film is superb, full of intricacy and immediacy.
Best Picture
Nominees:
Avatar James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
The Blind Side Nominees to be determined
District 9 Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
An Education Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
The Hurt Locker Nominees to be determined
Inglourious Basterds Lawrence Bender, Producer
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
A Serious Man Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
Up Jonas Rivera, Producer
Up in the Air Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers
Which of the nominees I've seen: All of them.
Should win: Anything but The Blind Side...? Seriously, though, I admire a good share of these films. Up continues Pixar's reign as the only consistent American animation studio, the Coen Brothers produced perhaps the film that they've been destined to make for their whole careers with A Serious Man, and District 9 proved that a sci-fi action flick can have a social agenda without beating the audience over the head with it. But for me, it's The Hurt Locker.
Will win: A week ago, I might've said The Hurt Locker, but I think the momentum's swung back to Avatar. It'll be a close race, but the chance to coronate the film that's already the biggest box-office draw of all time will be too much to pass up.
Should have been nominated: A Single Man, Where the Wild Things Are, Public Enemies, The White Ribbon, The Informant!, 35 Shots of Rum, Still Walking, Sugar, any of the hundreds of films that had to be more enjoyable than The Blind Side...
The rest of these are beyond my area of expertise, so I'll stick to predictions without breaking them down:
Art Direction
Nominees:
Avatar Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
Nine Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
Sherlock Holmes Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
The Young Victoria Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray
Prediction: Avatar
Costume Design
Nominees:
Bright Star Janet Patterson
Coco before Chanel Catherine Leterrier
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Monique Prudhomme
Nine Colleen Atwood
The Young Victoria Sandy Powell
Prediction: Coco Before Chanel
Makeup
Nominees:
Il Divo Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
Star Trek Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
The Young Victoria Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore
Prediction: Star Trek
Cinematography
Nominees:
Avatar Mauro Fiore
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Bruno Delbonnel
The Hurt Locker Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds Robert Richardson
The White Ribbon Christian Berger
Prediction: The White Ribbon
Film Editing
Nominees:
Avatar Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
District 9 Julian Clarke
The Hurt Locker Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
Inglourious Basterds Sally Menke
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire Joe Klotz
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Visual Effects
Nominees:
Avatar Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
District 9 Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
Star Trek Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton
Prediction: Avatar
Sound Editing
Nominees:
Avatar Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
The Hurt Locker Paul N.J. Ottosson
Inglourious Basterds Wylie Stateman
Star Trek Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
Up Michael Silvers and Tom Myers
Prediction: Avatar
Sound Mixing
Nominees:
Avatar Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
The Hurt Locker Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
Inglourious Basterds Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
Star Trek Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson
Prediction: Avatar
Music (Original Score)
Nominees:
Avatar James Horner
Fantastic Mr. Fox Alexandre Desplat
The Hurt Locker Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
Sherlock Holmes Hans Zimmer
Up Michael Giacchino
Prediction: Up
Music (Original Song)
Nominees:
Almost There from [/i]The Princess and the Frog[/i] Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Down in New Orleans from [/i]The Princess and the Frog[/i] Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Loin de Paname from [/i]Paris 36[/i] Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
Take It All from [/i]Nine[/i] Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) from [/i]Crazy Heart[/i] Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
Prediction: "The Weary Kind"
Short Film (Animated)
Nominees:
French Roast Fabrice O. Joubert
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty Nicky Phelan and Darragh O'Connell
The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) Javier Recio Gracia
Logorama Nicolas Schmerkin
A Matter of Loaf and Death Nick Park
Prediction: The Lady & the Reaper
Short Film (Live Action)
Nominees:
The Door Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
Instead of Abracadabra Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellstrφm
Kavi Gregg Helvey
Miracle Fish Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
The New Tenants Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson
Prediction: Instead of Abracadabra
Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominees:
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
Music by Prudence Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
Rabbit ΰ la Berlin Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra
Prediction: Rabbit ΰ la Berlin
-Coop