2009 Video sales&rental figures

[Smokey]

Hollywood may have hit a $10 billion-plus box-office record in 2009, but spending on movie-watching at home dipped 5% as a result of declining DVD sales. Consumers spent $20 billion buying and renting videos in 2009, $1 billion less than 2008, according to figures to be released today by the Digital Entertainment Group.

DVD sales and rentals dropped 11% year-over-year to $16.4 billion, a gap that could not be made up by surging spending on Blu-ray, up 67% to $1.5 billion, and digital downloads and video on demand, up 31% to $2.1 billion.

Home video rentals rose more than 4% ($6.5 billion), as sales dropped 13% ($11.4 billion). "People didn't quit consuming movies; they just shifted how they did it," says Tom Adams of Adams Media Research, an entertainment tracking firm.

"As with every other product category, people were looking for the best deals they could get," says Adams, including $1 DVD rentals, the fastest-growing segment of movie rentals.

Homes with Blu-ray Disc players rose to 17 million, up 76% over 2008. That compares with about 92 million homes with at least one DVD player. "This was a very good year for Blu-ray," says Ross Rubin of market tracking firm The NPD Group, "but it is going to take a while before the installed base is large enough to match the kind of volume the DVD market can provide."

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/dvd/2010-01-07-homevideo07_ST_N.htm

[Mr Peabody]

I get the feeling though that retailers are getting ready for a transition. I saw a huge amount of $5.00 DVD's at Wal-Mart. No less than six bins. Some were things like Bonanza seaon whatever or Wanted Dead or Alive, the Steve McQueen TV show but others were pretty big titles like Mystic River or the brand new 2009 Michael jackson thing. I think Blu-ray is slow getting titles on the street so it may be a while yet but looks like change is in the wind. Maybe it's just lightening the inventory and there have always been DVD's discounted but what I see lately seems a bit different from the past.

[Smokey]

I saw a huge amount of $5.00 DVD's at Wal-Mart. No less than six bins. Some were things like Bonanza seaon whatever or Wanted Dead or Alive, the Steve McQueen TV show but others were pretty big titles like Mystic River or the brand new 2009 Michael jackson thing.

Walmart is probably partly to blame for decline of DVD sales. The report (link) said that lower sales prices on DVDs contributed to the decrease spending of consumers on DVDs.

[Mr Peabody]

You'd think lower prices would sell them through faster. You think the lower prices made people think the same as I that maybe transition is right around the corner? BD isn't ramping up that fast and there are some things in the budget bin they'd have to wait some time for if it showed up on Blu at all. My daughter has a BD player and I marvel at the way it just doesn't phase her, she bought some of the budget DVD's and don't seem to think about buying on BD. I guess part of it is her boyfriend got her the player last Xmas and she's not into how well audio/video looks or sounds.

[kexodusc]

You'd think lower prices would sell them through faster.
Actually, it did...the devil is in the details:


Lower sales prices on DVDs contributed to the decrease. Consumers actually bought or rented more movies than in 2008; total transactions rose by nearly 3% to 3.5 billion units (DVDs, Blu-rays or downloads).

The impact on revenue from the price cuts was not made up for by an increase in volume, so revenue declined, even though units sold grew. This is fairly typical of mature products that are being overtaken by something new...They may have overestimated how cheap to sell these things too...or they may have cleared out a lot of product while the getting out was still good....time will tell.

In the last 2 months I've seen a mini-BluRay revolution - it's at the front, most visible display in most stores now and seems to be getting more shelf space by the day. 2010 will be something to watch.

[pixelthis]

Actually, it did...the devil is in the details:



The impact on revenue from the price cuts was not made up for by an increase in volume, so revenue declined, even though units sold grew. This is fairly typical of mature products that are being overtaken by something new...They may have overestimated how cheap to sell these things too...or they may have cleared out a lot of product while the getting out was still good....time will tell.

In the last 2 months I've seen a mini-BluRay revolution - it's at the front, most visible display in most stores now and seems to be getting more shelf space by the day. 2010 will be something to watch.


Which is probably One reason why DVD is tanking so fast, thr public smells a fire sale.
No reason to collect a DVD, and there is more and more BLU cheapies out there.
Independence Day was always a higher q DVD of mine, but the 10.00 BLU DISC I bought blew it away.
I have slowly amassed close to thirty titles on Blu, mostly oldies but goodies.
And with my new Sharp Aquos player they look and sound better than ever.:1:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

The retailers, studios and even distributors want to see DVD go. It overstayed its welcome, and if it had not been for the format war, it would be well on its way out by now.

I was a big DVD purchaser. I have a collection of 2600 titles that covers just about every genre of filmaking there is. In 2007, I purchase my last DVD (with the exception of Gospel Music concerts on DVD), and have not purchased any since. Aside from screening copies, I have purchased close to 400 Bluray discs, and I believe I am the typical movie collector. DVD is going down the toilet in terms of sales because many of us purchasers have moved to Bluray, and are collecting some of our catalog titles(worth replacing) and new releases stictly on that format. In the month of December alone, I replaced about 60 of my catalog titles I had on DVD with Bluray. That does not count new releases.

While it is not my desire to replace all 2600 of my DVD's, I certainly plan to replace a good majority of them as they come to market. I am through with DVD, and have no DVD players currently in my house. I have four HD DVD players, and 7 bluray players scattered in different hometheater rooms at different locations.

[poppachubby]

I have four HD DVD players, and 7 bluray players scattered in different hometheater rooms at different locations.__________________

Hey, pimpin ain't easy. That's alot of movie watching potential papi. Puffy will be stopping by Best Buy after reading this post.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

__________________

Hey, pimpin ain't easy. That's alot of movie watching potential papi. Puffy will be stopping by Best Buy after reading this post.

Like I say, don't hate on the playa, hate the process. And Puffy, you blo up Best Buy for me man LOL

[Smokey]

The retailers, studios and even distributors want to see DVD go.

I don't know Sir TT. Everybody keep saying they want DVD out, but DVD still have a commanding lead over Bluray as shown in 2009 figures ($16.4 billion for DVD vs $1.6 billion for bluray). Although profit margin is low for DVD, but it is still better than no profit since there are alot of titles out there that is not yet available on Blu. And you can get it only on DVD.

[Mr Peabody]

To pick up on your thought there Smokey, I also was reading some where the disappointment at lack of new BD releases announced at CES for 2010.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I don't know Sir TT. Everybody keep saying they want DVD out, but DVD still have a commanding lead over Bluray as shown in 2009 figures ($16.4 billion for DVD vs $1.6 billion for bluray).

Keep in mind though Smoke, DVD has shown consistent sales declines since 2005. This year it was 13% versus Blu rays 100% increase. There are 17 million Blu ray players in the field, and over 200 million DVD players. While DVD showed a sales decline, renting went up for both formats. When combine that sales declines taken year to year, DVD has actually shown close to a 25% decline in four years. Just from these few trends, videophiles (the ones that actually buy titles actively) have abandoned DVD and have moved over to Blu ray, while everyone else is renting both formats. When one understands that big hit titles used to move 20+ million units at one time, and now barely make 9 million units, you know that folks are just not buying titles in that format anymore. That $16.4 million dollar figure is reflective of a larger player base in the field, and nothing more than that. The action in terms of sales increases is clearly in Blu ray favor, and it will tilt more and more that way over time.



Although profit margin is low for DVD, but it is still better than no profit since there are alot of titles out there that is not yet available on Blu. And you can get it only on DVD.

This was the same argument made by VHS proponents when DVD came to fruition. The titles eventually get released on every new format sooner or later.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

To pick up on your thought there Smokey, I also was reading some where the disappointment at lack of new BD releases announced at CES for 2010.

With so many news outlets out there CES, is no longer the most important place to announce new releases. It is better to just announce releases on places like the Digitalbits and Blu ray.com, as they cast a wider net than CES does. Both websites have already announced that several 3D Blu ray release (The NIght Before Christmas, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, and Polar Express and a few more) will be released in the third quarter of 2010.

[poppachubby]

Hey Terrence, and anyone else who cares,

rather than post a bunch of stuff here, can you read this link and give me your opinion. It's from Kung-FuCinema.com, one of my favorite sites.

http://www.kungfucinema.com/blu-ray-is-the-champion-for-now-1262

I have been thinking about Blu-Ray, but they've been slow with Kung-Fu titles. Let me give you a sample of what this guy is saying, just to peak your interest...


Whatever you do, keep your DVD collection and a working player handy. It’s going to be a long time before Blu-ray replaces DVD and my prediction is that it will never happen entirely. I believe that in coming years digital content from cable on-demand services and sites such as Netflix and Amazon will eventually overtake all traditional home video formats as the main distribution method for feature films. By that time, higher-quality discs than what Blu-ray offers and that are already in development will be introduced for storage and uncompressed, theater-grade film viewing. This will largely serve the high-end minority of consumer willing to pay for the best viewing experience available while most of us will settle for the convenience of watching increasingly higher-quality broadband movies available at the push of a button.

I don't know who to listen to anymore, everyone has such convincing opinions, all told with such conviction.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Hey Terrence, and anyone else who cares,

rather than post a bunch of stuff here, can you read this link and give me your opinion. It's from Kung-FuCinema.com, one of my favorite sites.

http://www.kungfucinema.com/blu-ray-is-the-champion-for-now-1262

I have been thinking about Blu-Ray, but they've been slow with Kung-Fu titles. Let me give you a sample of what this guy is saying, just to peak your interest...



I don't know who to listen to anymore, everyone has such convincing opinions, all told with such conviction.

Poppa,
Some folks look at the content side of things, and others the content AND technical qualities of things. This gentleman is obviously content with low quality video, because everyone in the film industry understands it will be years and years before downloading will come close to what the quality you get on Blu ray disc.

I was just watching a 1980 movie last night, and the bitrate of that movie pretty much stayed between 25-30mbps. When you consider the fact that the best online video rarely has bitrates that get to 6mbps for both audio and video, you can see it will be a long time before you can hit 30mbps for video with downloads.

The tech industry has been saying what this gentleman has been saying every since Blu ray came to market. In spite of these often wrong predictions, Blu ray has almost caught up with downloads in revenue, and has been on the market a lot less of a time.

For those of us who like content and quality, downloads will not cut it for us, at least not in the near future. Everyone knows that audio only application have been trending portable, and towards downloading, but that has not been the case for video. I would not hold my breath waiting for downloads to over take the disc. His prognostications are dated, and old news.

[poppachubby]

Thanks Terrence,

I still have about 150 kung fu movies on VHS. Relics from my father's collection, and part from mine. I can't let them go for sentimental reasons, if one can be sentimental about a video tape.

When DVD came out, I gladly replaced them all. I am willing to do so with Blu Ray as well. As you stated, I want the best experience for one of my favorite hobbies...watching one man lob off another's head with a sword.

I am aware that his post is old, but it seems like I am still hearing the same themes today. Personally, I enjoy good old fashioned movies. The ritual of renting and buying is fun. Back in the swinging bachelor days, movie rentals were a great thing for a date night. Downloading just doesn't seem like it would be the same.

Can you comment on his opinions about International titles and format "zoning". It looks like under Blu-Ray, Canada and Asia would share the same zone, which would be great!

Thanks again....Chubbs

[Woochifer]

Hey Terrence, and anyone else who cares,

rather than post a bunch of stuff here, can you read this link and give me your opinion. It's from Kung-FuCinema.com, one of my favorite sites.

http://www.kungfucinema.com/blu-ray-is-the-champion-for-now-1262

I have been thinking about Blu-Ray, but they've been slow with Kung-Fu titles. Let me give you a sample of what this guy is saying, just to peak your interest...

Whatever you do, keep your DVD collection and a working player handy. It’s going to be a long time before Blu-ray replaces DVD and my prediction is that it will never happen entirely. I believe that in coming years digital content from cable on-demand services and sites such as Netflix and Amazon will eventually overtake all traditional home video formats as the main distribution method for feature films. By that time, higher-quality discs than what Blu-ray offers and that are already in development will be introduced for storage and uncompressed, theater-grade film viewing. This will largely serve the high-end minority of consumer willing to pay for the best viewing experience available while most of us will settle for the convenience of watching increasingly higher-quality broadband movies available at the push of a button.

I don't know who to listen to anymore, everyone has such convincing opinions, all told with such conviction.

This guy is basically parroting what tech bloggers have been saying for the better part of three years. They keep playing the same cut-and-paste meme over and over despite the ample evidence that Blu-ray has overcome its growing pains and has steadily gained market share.

If digital distribution is going to take over the market, it has to start growing at a higher rate than Blu-ray first. And this has yet to happen. Based on the latest figures, Blu-ray's growth rate remains more than 3X higher than digital distribution. As T pointed out, Blu-ray's revenue is on track to surpass digital distribution (which includes downloads, streaming, and PPV) very soon, despite the fact that digital distribution includes both SD and HD content.

The martial arts genre is a very tricky proposition because so much of the original source material was never maintained very well. Going to Blu-ray with many of the Asian action and martial arts pics might not yield much of an improvement because aside from the Shaw Brothers archive there is not much in the way of film preservation over there. And the studios over there are not going to shell out thousands of dollars to do frame-by-frame restoration.

The newer titles will inevitably start coming out in Blu-ray. The numbers are trending in that direction, so it will happen. The only question is which catalog titles will make the transition, because we know that a lot of classic martial arts pics have yet to even come out on DVD.

I've been skeptical of whether Blu-ray will generate a lot of catalog title sales, and have felt that Blu-ray will live or die based on consumers transitioning over to the format for new releases. However, the holiday season sales splits showed that catalog sales were the fastest growing market for Blu-ray.

So, there might be a glimmer of hope down the line that someone like the Weinstein Company, who oversee the excellent Dragon Dynasty line, will take a chance and start reissuing their martial arts titles on Blu-ray. But, this will probably have to wait until the user base for Blu-ray increases a bit more. Aside from Asian imports, it took a while before U.S. distributors began releasing classic martial arts titles. Just consider that it took all the way until 2006 before the Bruce Lee movies (other than Warner's Enter the Dragon) got a worthy DVD release in the U.S.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

So, there might be a glimmer of hope down the line that someone like the Weinstein Company, who oversee the excellent Dragon Dynasty line, will take a chance and start reissuing their martial arts titles on Blu-ray. But, this will probably have to wait until the user base for Blu-ray increases a bit more. Aside from Asian imports, it took a while before U.S. distributors began releasing classic martial arts titles. Just consider that it took all the way until 2006 before the Bruce Lee movies (other than Warner's Enter the Dragon) got a worthy DVD release in the U.S.

I would not hold my breath on the Weinstein Company doing much Blu ray in the near future. They are barely holding on here, and the studio chiefs have burned just about every bridge between here and the Czech Republic.

You are absolutely correct regarding the martial art genre on film. Basically it is a mess. My friend Wicky Woo from Blu ray.com has stated that so many of the highest quality martial arts films are basically good for ingredients for salad dressing. Many have just rotted and turned to dust from lack of proper storage. What is left would be so expensive to restore, you would not make a penny selling them. When you consider a film like The Wizard of Oz on Blu ray cost about $2 million benjies to restore(and it was in better condition that most martial arts films) the cost just does not justify the amount of sales you will get from the film.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Thanks Terrence,

I still have about 150 kung fu movies on VHS. Relics from my father's collection, and part from mine. I can't let them go for sentimental reasons, if one can be sentimental about a video tape.

When DVD came out, I gladly replaced them all. I am willing to do so with Blu Ray as well. As you stated, I want the best experience for one of my favorite hobbies...watching one man lob off another's head with a sword.

I am aware that his post is old, but it seems like I am still hearing the same themes today. Personally, I enjoy good old fashioned movies. The ritual of renting and buying is fun. Back in the swinging bachelor days, movie rentals were a great thing for a date night. Downloading just doesn't seem like it would be the same.

Can you comment on his opinions about International titles and format "zoning". It looks like under Blu-Ray, Canada and Asia would share the same zone, which would be great!

Thanks again....Chubbs

It is unfortunate the we have to have region coding, but it is necessary for several reasons. Films may have different release dates in different places. I know of several films that were released on DVD here in the states, but just coming out in theaters in Australia and New Zealand. Without region coding, a person in these two countries could purchase a DVD, and have it on the web before the films release. This would harm a studio revenue if it happens continuously.

The second reason has to do with the languages included on the disc. Can you imagine what a disc menu would look like if it had a single disc with every regional langauge on them? It would eat up bandwidth pretty quickly, and storage space as well. Region coding allows a studio to only include the langauges within that region, as it saves on both storage and bandwidth utitlized.

The third reason has to do with different distribution contracts for different areas. Certain studios in certain regions are licensed to distribute DVD's or Blu rays within their region. Without region coding, these contracts would easily be violated by imports, and reduce its value for both parties. It is cumbersome to have region coding, but it is necessary for these reasons and more. Region coding is not why you are not going to see many martial art films released though.

[poppachubby]

Right on. Thanks alot Terrence and Wooch...

[E-Stat]

Keep in mind though Smoke, DVD has shown consistent sales declines since 2005.
While all new purchases I make are Blu-Ray, I have a stupid question to ask: why are there so many DVDs around if they decided to stop making them? How many years will it take to clear out all the excess inventory?

rw

[Enochrome]

I think that maybe part of the reason dvd sales have been declining are a couple of things:

1. The economy.
2. The bonus features are becoming less special.
3. Some people (myself included), feel the replay value is not the same as when you buy an album.
4. Netflix and streaming.
5. Lastly (a comic pet-peeve) is those stupid trailers they force you to sit through (Disney..... cough). I used to buy dvd's for the luxury of not sitting through those. And to put lemon on a open wound, I have to sit through commercials of products at the movie theater.

Just my two cents.

[Enochrome]

Number three is certainly a personal preference, and not a comment on anyone. I've watched my Bladerunner dvd at least 30 times. :)

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I think that maybe part of the reason dvd sales have been declining are a couple of things:

1. The economy.
2. The bonus features are becoming less special.
3. Some people (myself included), feel the replay value is not the same as when you buy an album.
4. Netflix and streaming.
5. Lastly (a comic pet-peeve) is those stupid trailers they force you to sit through (Disney..... cough). I used to buy dvd's for the luxury of not sitting through those. And to put lemon on a open wound, I have to sit through commercials of products at the movie theater.

Just my two cents.

Great points, but I would like to add another one.

6. A lot of collectors(like myself) who used to purchase 5-10 DVD's a month(or roughly around that many) are now buying Blu rays at that rate to replace or add to their collections.

As for point #2, the special bonus features are moving to the Blu ray disc as a transition move.

As for point #5, a studio has to advertise if they expect to sell DVD's(one of their many streams of revenue) right?

Commercials in the theater are the theater chains decision, not the studio.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

While all new purchases I make are Blu-Ray, I have a stupid question to ask: why are there so many DVDs around if they decided to stop making them?

Not a stupid question at all. DVD disc are now loss leaders. The retailers sell them at lower sale prices to keep the larger base of DVD player owners in their stores buying other products. It is that way online, and at BM stores. However you are already seeing the same trend the studios took in the transition from VHS to DVD. The exclusion of added value extras on one format, and the inclusion on the successor format.(with the added steroid of BD live)


How many years will it take to clear out all the excess inventory?

rw

This is a two prong event with a single outcome. When the demand drops to the point the studios stop offering it, and when the retailers start to fire sale to get rid of inventory. It will end much like HD DVD, but take a bit longer because there are so many operating players out there. The prices will drop to $1 to $5 dollars(not sale prices), and folks will buy till there are no more.

[Tarheel_]

6. A lot of collectors(like myself) who used to purchase 5-10 DVD's a month(or roughly around that many) are now buying Blu rays at that rate to replace or add to their collections.



I just don't get purchasing the same movies over again. Most folks did not have a VCR library so buying a movie on DVD was easy to justify, but having around 50 DVDs myself, I just can't imagine purchasing those same movies over again just to get some more pop from them.
I may be in the minority here, but the extras never interests me and i'm no videophile so perhaps there isn't enough to justify the costs to go Blu. Plus, when i viewed Blu-ray at a friends house I wasn't very impressed. The video was an improvement over my 720p projector, but the newer audio codecs seemed overly bright and louder.

I guess the DVD format is good enough for me.

[Mr Peabody]

If the Blu ray presentation was too bright and loud it was the set up and volume. What you are saying is you'd prefer listening to an mp3 opposed to a CD. Your friends speakers or equipment was not your cup of tea but don't dismiss Blu, it's like any format it will sound different from system to system. Actually with being the same as the original master one should be able to get a fuller sound at a lower volume.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I just don't get purchasing the same movies over again. Most folks did not have a VCR library so buying a movie on DVD was easy to justify, but having around 50 DVDs myself, I just can't imagine purchasing those same movies over again just to get some more pop from them.

If you knew there was a benefit in upgrading, you can justify it. A person that owns 50 DVD is not what I consider a collector. The average consumer owns an average of 25-50 movies according to most studies on DVD ownership. You cal also justify the cost when it shows up on the screen, or comes out of the speakers as a noticeable improvement.


I may be in the minority here, but the extras never interests me and i'm no videophile so perhaps there isn't enough to justify the costs to go Blu. Plus, when i viewed Blu-ray at a friends house I wasn't very impressed. The video was an improvement over my 720p projector, but the newer audio codecs seemed overly bright and louder.

The new codecs have no sonic signature and are a mirror of the master they were encoded from. It must have been the system, not the software. Everyone will eventually migrate to Blu ray once that is the only thing out there, the time is just not right for you. I own hundreds of Blu ray, and I just cannot go back to DVD after all of the exposure to 1080p and lossless sound.


I guess the DVD format is good enough for me.

I guess this decision is best made based on the equipment you own, and what you want out of your viewing experience.

[Mr Peabody]

I have too many DVD's to try and replace the entire collection. Some aren't worth it and some the benefit wouldn't be worth the expense. The bottom falling out of DVD is a two edge sword, why would any one buy my used DVD's for $5.00 or whatever, when they can get them new for that in bargain bins. If I could resell certain titles for a reasonable price I'd be more inclined to upgrade some.

[Woochifer]

I just don't get purchasing the same movies over again. Most folks did not have a VCR library so buying a movie on DVD was easy to justify, but having around 50 DVDs myself, I just can't imagine purchasing those same movies over again just to get some more pop from them.

To some extent you're right. The DVD format fundamentally changed the market by shifting home video from a rental-dominated market to one driven by sell-through.

But, if you've invested in upgrading your video chain to HD and are already in the habit of buying DVDs, at the very least your purchases of new releases will likely transition over to Blu-ray. I know that since I upgraded to Blu-ray, I now rarely buy DVDs -- only titles unavailable on Blu-ray or movies I'm marginally interested in selling for a ridiculously low price.

For rebuying titles you already own, that depends on the title. I doubt that anyone's going to upgrade their entire collection. There are plenty of movies that simply aren't worth buying twice, or even watching twice. For someone who has specific favorites, then I can see a rebuy.

I thought too that Blu-ray would have limited interest with catalog titles because so many people already own them on DVD. However, the sales trends towards the end of last year showed that Blu-ray catalog title sales grew at a much faster rate than new releases. A lot of this might have to do with prices starting to transition downward for older Blu-ray titles and a lot of catalog titles now coming out with lower prices from the outset.


I may be in the minority here, but the extras never interests me and i'm no videophile so perhaps there isn't enough to justify the costs to go Blu. Plus, when i viewed Blu-ray at a friends house I wasn't very impressed. The video was an improvement over my 720p projector, but the newer audio codecs seemed overly bright and louder.

I guess the DVD format is good enough for me.

Blu-ray's picture quality is an obvious improvement over DVD. You already have a HD projector, so the difference would be readily apparent with your setup.

Can't make a judgment of the audio codecs unless you actually hear them on your system and do a one-to-one comparison with the DVD copy. Listening over at a friend's house has so many variables outside of the audio codecs themselves that I don't see how the listening can be even remotely comparable. I can tell you that even without decoding capability for the lossless formats, Blu-ray still improves the sound quality because it uses higher bitrate versions of DD and DTS. As others pointed out, saying that you prefer the DVD audio tracks over Blu-ray would be like saying that you prefer MP3 rips over the original CDs.

Like it or not, you will transition over to Blu-ray at some juncture. If your current DVD player breaks, it just doesn't make sense to replace it with another DVD player if you already have a HD source. It's getting to a point where the Blu-ray player prices are inching close to DVD players, and with that you will see manufacturers stop making DVD players. It is happening in the high end and midlevel. Oppo has already stopped making DVD players, and the indications are pointing towards midlevel companies like Denon also getting out of the DVD player market this year.

Blu-ray will win out by simple attrition in much the same way that HDTV has. Just as you can hardly find non-HD TVs anymore, we're not too far from a situation where you won't be able to find standalone DVD players.

[Feanor]

... A person that owns 50 DVD is not what I consider a collector. The average consumer owns an average of 25-50 movies according to most studies on DVD ownership. ...
Interesting. We have 300-400 DVDs around our place, but I consider myselft anything but a collector.

Anyway, these day I rent. I can rent 5-10 times for less than the cost of a my own copy.