Early Data Shows Strong Black Friday

[Woochifer]

Despite the turmoil and all the anecdotal reports of sluggish Black Friday sales, seems that the actual sales data told a different story. The AP is now reporting that Black Friday sales increased by 3% over last year. This happening despite the month-to-month decline of 3% that occurred in October.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/11/29/financial/f123307S49.DTL&type=business&tsp=1


The holiday shopping season got off to a surprisingly solid start, according to data released Saturday by a research firm. But the sales boost during the post-Thanksgiving shopathon came at the expense of profits as the nation's retailers had to slash prices to attract the crowds in a season that is expected to be the weakest in decades.

Might be the case of perception shaping reality here, since just about everybody I talked to indicated that the crowds were smaller than they remember from years past. But, if stores increased their sales, I wonder where these revenues came from. At the Best Buy store where my friend works, he indicated that they still had the doorbuster TVs in stock at midday, whereas in years past those sets would be gone within the first hour.

It could also be a case where the discounting cuts more broadly and deeper than in Black Fridays past. The enticements aren't limited to just a few doorbuster deals. For example, Carter's put their entire store at 50% off beginning on Tuesday and going through Saturday.

[Mr Peabody]

My wife and I briefly stopped at one of the malls today. Although it had traffic it didn't look like Christmas shopping season and it was Saturday. We pulled right into a parking spot as another car was pulling out, normally we'd have to circle the parking lot a couple times.

Although a friend of mine was in line at American at 2:30 am Friday morning. He said he was about 20th in line. He was after and succeeded in landing a Sony bd-p350 for $178.00

If it was me I think I'd get my sleep and go to the place that sells them regularly for $199.00.

[nightflier]

Wooch, that may be the report, but that wasn't at all what the sales people at CC, BB, MicroCenter, and even Costco told me. Of course, that's all local to SoCal, but if the rich mucky-mucks here aren't buying, then the average Joe probably isn't buying either.

I haven't checked, but I also read that the big toy manufacturers and distributors (Mattel, Toys 'R' US, FAO, etc.) all came down on Friday. Granted, the market has been up-ish since Monday, so that may just have been a blip, but I'm not holding my breath. I am, however, hoping that Visa comes back up before the end of the season....

[blackraven]

Most people I know are buying off the internet instead of shopping at local stores.

[Woochifer]

Wooch, that may be the report, but that wasn't at all what the sales people at CC, BB, MicroCenter, and even Costco told me. Of course, that's all local to SoCal, but if the rich mucky-mucks here aren't buying, then the average Joe probably isn't buying either.

That was what I heard from the front lines as well, but when the sales got tallied up, they showed an increase. What you're observing is perception. What the cash register totals provide is the reality.

Considering how far retail sales fell during October and November, some analysts I read suspect that there was a lot of pent up demand that got brought out via the Black Friday discounts. A lot of purchases got deferred during those months, so it makes sense that discounting would entice consumers make purchases that they had wanted to make earlier.


Most people I know are buying off the internet instead of shopping at local stores.

That might be what you're hearing, but on the whole, remote retailing (which includes online, catalog, phone order, mail order sales of all stripes) still accounts for less than 10% of retail sales. Internet sites always report big percentage growth numbers, but they're starting from a much smaller base.

[mbbuchanan]

I just don't see how this early on that any report could be accurate. When it is all said and done I'd like to see how it really turned out, it will probably illuminate the path we are headed down economically( or not, just for the sake of uncertain wishey-washieness). The only thing I know for sure is I'm not going to be spending quite as much as I have in the past.

[kexodusc]

Well Wooch, I know the investment world is living in fear of the prospect of consumers holding off buying today out of anticipation for yet even bigger price cuts tomorrow.

Consumers think they're smarter these days (and many are). They know in a tough economy that demand drops and exerts downward price pressure (ignoring supply adjustments of course).

What we're wondering is if buyers' wide-spread belief of a better price later can actually force retail's hand to lower prices even more now. This is a nasty recipe for deflation, which is devastating and brutally hard to get out of.

Hope the data holds up and people are spending at a reasonable pace at least.

We might not know until much later, and here's a case where perceptions might adversely influence reality...

[Rich-n-Texas]

Well Wooch, I know the investment world is living in fear of the prospect of consumers holding off buying today out of anticipation for yet even bigger price cuts tomorrow.

Consumers think they're smarter these days (and many are). They know in a tough economy that demand drops and exerts downward price pressure (ignoring supply adjustments of course).

What we're wondering is if buyers' wide-spread belief of a better price later can actually force retail's hand to lower prices even more now. This is a nasty recipe for deflation, which is devastating and brutally hard to get out of.

Hope the data holds up and people are spending at a reasonable pace at least.

We might not know until much later, and here's a case where perceptions might adversely influence reality...
If they send me another "Economic Stimulus" check, I'll spend it at a reasonable pace, at the very least. :yesnod:

[kexodusc]

If they send me another "Economic Stimulus" check, I'll spend it at a reasonable pace, at the very least. :yesnod:
What happened to the last liberal redistribution of wealth you got? :D

[kexodusc]

Knock it off knucklehead!!! :incazzato:
Mwa ha ha ha...I just said it cause I knew it would rib ya, buddy! You'll recall I avoided most of those kinds of discussions.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Knock it off knucklehead!!! :incazzato:

[Rich-n-Texas]

Oh BTW, for some reason (L.J.) my finances are looking a bit thin, so as another way to keep the pace up, and as a way of showing how much everybody appreciates my time and effort here, I'll take the BFD as a Christmas/belated 5K post gift.

Sound good lemme know. :thumbsup:

[Woochifer]

I just don't see how this early on that any report could be accurate. When it is all said and done I'd like to see how it really turned out, it will probably illuminate the path we are headed down economically( or not, just for the sake of uncertain wishey-washieness). The only thing I know for sure is I'm not going to be spending quite as much as I have in the past.

Given that all retailers tally up their daily returns at the end of the day, how would a report on Black Friday sales not be accurate? The bigger picture is not how this Black Friday's sales measured up to years past. They went up, but that's not the point.

The real story yet to be determined is how the whole holiday shopping season measures up. Black Friday is an indicator of where the holiday season is headed, but it's not foolproof. 2003 had record breaking sales on Black Friday, but once the total sales were tallied up after Christmas, that year turned out no better than the year before.

This year's holiday season will likely lag behind last year. For one thing, there are five fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Also, retailers had already anticipated the slowdown and cutback their orders. Given these conditions, retailers can only achieve year-to-year growth by maintaining higher price points. That will all depend on how far shoppers deplete store inventories over the next week or two. If sales are strong, then stores won't feel as much pressure to deepen the price cuts given that inventory levels are already low.

[mbbuchanan]

Given that all retailers tally up their daily returns at the end of the day, how would a report on Black Friday sales not be accurate? Big-stores and major retailers were reporting, not smaller stores.Big electronic and department stores are not the only seller of goods and they are going to get their money one way or the other.

[Woochifer]

Well Wooch, I know the investment world is living in fear of the prospect of consumers holding off buying today out of anticipation for yet even bigger price cuts tomorrow.

Consumers think they're smarter these days (and many are). They know in a tough economy that demand drops and exerts downward price pressure (ignoring supply adjustments of course).

What we're wondering is if buyers' wide-spread belief of a better price later can actually force retail's hand to lower prices even more now. This is a nasty recipe for deflation, which is devastating and brutally hard to get out of.

Hope the data holds up and people are spending at a reasonable pace at least.

We might not know until much later, and here's a case where perceptions might adversely influence reality...

I think that there's probably enough pent up retail demand to avert an all-out catastrophe, at least for the holiday season. People have to lay out a certain amount of retail spending just to maintain a household, and a lot of those purchases got deferred in October and November. If some of those deferred purchases are made in December, then that potentially makes up for reductions in gift spending and discretionary purchases.

It also helps that the lower gas prices might further loosen the purse strings for retail purchases. Between my wife and I, we're back down to a combined $40 a week for gas, whereas we were over $100 a week just two months ago.

I think the factor that might avert a deflationary cycle in the short term is simply lower inventories. Retailers had already planned for reduced inventory, and once the financial crisis hit, they canceled their remaining holiday orders. Because of how quickly the market conditions deteriorated in October and November, retailers shifted a lot of the holiday discounting early. The pricing they have in effect right now is what would normally occur in mid-December. If retail inventories get depleted more quickly, then the stores won't feel as much pressure to launch a more aggressive round of discounting.

The real catastrophe in retailing though might still happen in the early part of next year. With the new unemployment numbers and rumors buzzing about major layoff announcements early next year, I suspect that consumers will really start cutting back in January. Depending on inventory levels, that would be where any deflationary cycle begins.

[Woochifer]

Big-stores and major retailers were reporting, not smaller stores.Big electronic and department stores are not the only seller of goods and they are going to get their money one way or the other.

Like it or not, the major retailers generate the vast majority of retail sales, and are a very good indicator as to the direction of the retail market in general. Many "smaller stores" are owned major retailers and participate in the same data reporting. If you say that they "are going to get their money one way or the other" then how does that explain the 18% drop in year-to-year sales that Best Buy experienced in October? Retailers were hammered hard in October and November, which makes the Black Friday numbers surprising (or not so surprising according to the analysts who expected Black Friday to be an outlet for pent up demand that got deferred for the last two month). Keep in mind that this is ONE DAY, and that same AP report mentions that retailers' profit margins are getting sacrificed to maintain the sales levels.

If the data reporting for this year's Black Friday was done the same way as last year, then why would the reported 3% increase somehow constitute an "inaccurate" finding? The only way for it to be inaccurate would be if last year's numbers included a different universe of store types than this year's.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Looks like kex is psychic too!! Another one tearing hole in the time-space continuum (posts 10 & 11 are reversed)

Anyway, pay no attention to me. It's the day before my bosses Christmas party and I'm stoked. On Topic: He pumped $290. into the economy with his liquor purchase. :thumbsup:

[Mr Peabody]

AT&T had big layoffs today as well as about 3 other companies, I haven't heard the news tonight to see how the auto companies turned out but this has to have people hanging on to their money wondering if they could be next.

[nightflier]

Well Wooch, it certainly isn't looking good for the economy as a whole. Black Friday was maybe not a dud (although I still have a hard time accepting that given how the local economy's been doing), but x-mas shopping isn't the only thing that makes up the Consumer Price Index.

One example that comes to mind is the automakers. Even if the automakers get their socialist check (I'm throwing Tex a bone, here) from uncle Sam, they will still be laying off tens of thousands and selling very little. Not only will year-end auto sales suck, but they are likely to stay low throughout next year, and that will have it's share of impact on the economy. Then there's the foreclosure numbers, the cost of this assinine nonsense war in Iraq, the huge expense of corporate welfare (aka socialism - Tex, are you there?), and the fact that our schools are putting out stunted grads, and you've got a recipe for several years of economic muck.

This morning Bush blamed the unemployment numbers on the savings & loan, oops, Freudian slip... I mean the housing crisis. Huh? Now how does that work? Isn't this the kind of disinformation and obfuscation that got us into this mess? The fact that nobody is questioning this nonsense tells me that we're headed for more economic misery because people don't want to accept that we're up sh*t creek.

So Wooch, what you're saying is that the retailers set their expectations so low this year, that what we saw this past weekend could still be passed off as an improvement? That's kind of like saying to a couch-potato that he will gain weight if he does nothing so when his weight stays the same, he'll actually be pleasantly surprized. Let's tell all our children to get D's and then we can celebrate when they pass with a C. Let's cut more social programs, that way we can throw more money at the few that are left. Let's boycott international treaties, then we can make a big deal when we sign an insignificant one. Let's send more troops to Iraq, so that the percentage of deaths & injuries seems lower. Let's set the presidential bar so low that even a black man named Hussein can get elected.

Hey wait a minute, this is how we do things in this country, huh?

OK, Agent Smith, can I have my blue pill now?

[Mr Peabody]

NF, you are out of line with the "black man named Husane" thing. The fact that Barack got as far as he did shows no bar was lowered. One might have thought that, when Bush got elected. The fact that it's not Jessie Jackson or Fred Thompson shows that not just any knucklehead can get elected.

Maybe the road to recovery is partly in the hands of us. Instead of forecasting doom and gloom, walking around with our tales between our legs, we need to do what we can to help. And, when I figure that out, I will post for all to see. I know a few here have helped, they have gone Blu. Of course, it took great prices on good machines to do it but it got done.

[thekid]

It would be nice if some people around here could get over the November 4 results or at least wait until someone is actual in the job setting policy before bashing them based on party line biases............

In any case after the news of this week I'd like to hope that sales on Black Friday were up. This is a consumer driven economy and any sign that those people who do have money are willing to spend it is good sign. My wife works in retail at a discount clothing store and overall business has been strong these last couple of weeks. They are however getting ready to make additional discounts now so that people will continue to come in and shop so they are operating on an even thinner margin despite their continued success.

If we could stop having a different bottle seemingly falling off the shelve each week causing turmoil in the market maybe we can start to get through this mess. It seems at this point everyone is in a reactive mode based on the last piece of bad news.

[Mr Peabody]

Good point, maybe we should quit watching the news. It does seem like people can't get the bad economy out of their mind because if not every week, sometimes every day there is a major headline of something else happening to worsen the situation. You can't get excited about the stock market surge because it's followed by a just as large plunge. I think it's important to keep as positive of an attitude as we can though. Where's that American spirit? Everyone's assignment this weekend is to watch at least one John Wayne movie and a couple episodes of Star Trek :)

[pixelthis]

Good point, maybe we should quit watching the news. It does seem like people can't get the bad economy out of their mind because if not every week, sometimes every day there is a major headline of something else happening to worsen the situation. You can't get excited about the stock market surge because it's followed by a just as large plunge. I think it's important to keep as positive of an attitude as we can though. Where's that American spirit? Everyone's assignment this weekend is to watch at least one John Wayne movie and a couple episodes of Star Trek :)

YEAH, that will help.
Tell me, just how did we become a nation of such fools that we actually beleive
that something will happen if we just wish it?
500,000 jobs were lost last month, that is HUGE.
And if you work for a car company are you going to go out and splurge?
As for "pent up demand" that doesnt mean jack if you dont have the coin to satisfy the demand.
I have a "pent up demand" for a new Porsch and a new Mac amp, doesnt mean its gonna happen anytime soon.
Wooch's problem is that hes' been cooking the books for uncle sugar for so long
that he has lost touch with reality.
And now we have this idiot in office that is going to throw money at anything that moves.
Only problem is you dont go on a spending spree when you're broke.
WHICH WE ARE.
We dont even have any industrial base, its been moved off-shore.
Wanna know the future? LOOK AT THE PAST, AT germany between the wars, or more recently Argentina.
ONLY in such a large economy its gonna be at least ten times worse.
But heres the position mr P, if you insist on denying reality.
The tiger is gonna keep thinking you're a happy meal, even if you refuse to beleive he exists.:1:

[Mr Peabody]

First of all and idiot in office already threw money at anything. The incoming president is planning to create jobs by embarking on one of the largest infastructure rebuilding projects in 50 years. So maybe, you, should, watch the news more.

My point is, sure times are bad, more so for some than others, but what should they do? I think you have to say we just took a hard shot and now how do we battle back. You seem to say, well I just took a hard shot so let's roll over and die.

[Woochifer]

Well Wooch, it certainly isn't looking good for the economy as a whole. Black Friday was maybe not a dud (although I still have a hard time accepting that given how the local economy's been doing), but x-mas shopping isn't the only thing that makes up the Consumer Price Index.

CPI is a measure of inflation, not sales or demand. Get your terminology straight.

Like I said, Black Friday is but ONE DAY. It's quite easy to see how Black Friday went fine this year given how much discounting occurred and how many purchases got deferred from October and November.

And AS I SAID BEFORE, Black Friday does not always predict how the overall holiday shopping season will go. 2003 had a record-breaking Black Friday and mediocre sales the rest of December. This year could very well go the other way around.


One example that comes to mind is the automakers. Even if the automakers get their socialist check (I'm throwing Tex a bone, here) from uncle Sam, they will still be laying off tens of thousands and selling very little. Not only will year-end auto sales suck, but they are likely to stay low throughout next year, and that will have it's share of impact on the economy. Then there's the foreclosure numbers, the cost of this assinine nonsense war in Iraq, the huge expense of corporate welfare (aka socialism - Tex, are you there?), and the fact that our schools are putting out stunted grads, and you've got a recipe for several years of economic muck.

Bad example and a whole lot of off-topic tangents. The auto industry is the single largest retail segment, but it is not a sector that depends on seasonal shopping. Despite what those Lexus and Mercedes commercials try to tell you, the holiday season is not critical to a dealership's bottom line since December isn't even the peak month.

For specialty retailers and general merchandisers though, the holiday season alone can account for upwards of 30% or more of a retailer's annual sales. The term "black Friday" came about because it was the symbolic day where a retail store goes into the profitability for the year.


So Wooch, what you're saying is that the retailers set their expectations so low this year, that what we saw this past weekend could still be passed off as an improvement? That's kind of like saying to a couch-potato that he will gain weight if he does nothing so when his weight stays the same, he'll actually be pleasantly surprized.

Did you ever study economics or run a retail business (both of my parents owned small businesses where I helped them manage their inventory)? What you call low expectations, the retailers call survival. It has nothing to do with "passing off as an improvement," it has to do with doing everything necessary to generate revenue and reduce their inventories.

The retailers have already pulled back their orders, so they have less product to sell this year than they did last year. For them, the task between now and the end of the year is to maximize the revenue that they get out of that inventory. Normally, they hold back the big price reductions until the very end of the holiday shopping season. This year, they are front loading them because steeper price cuts at the end of the holiday season would be more disastrous for the bottom line. If consumer demand holds up enough to avoid fire sales later on this month, then it will be better than expected because it means fewer bankruptcies in January.

The fact of the matter is that Black Friday sales showed a gain from last year. But, that has to be taken within the context of all of the declines that occurred earlier.


Let's tell all our children to get D's and then we can celebrate when they pass with a C. Let's cut more social programs, that way we can throw more money at the few that are left. Let's boycott international treaties, then we can make a big deal when we sign an insignificant one. Let's send more troops to Iraq, so that the percentage of deaths & injuries seems lower. Let's set the presidential bar so low that even a black man named Hussein can get elected.

Oh please. Take these rants to another topic. And that last statement is rather offensive.

[Woochifer]

First of all and idiot in office already threw money at anything. The incoming president is planning to create jobs by embarking on one of the largest infastructure rebuilding projects in 50 years. So maybe, you, should, watch the news more.

Given that the construction sector has been hit the hardest, infrastructure is one of the most sensible ways of generating economic activity and getting people back to work. In contrast, stimulus checks have always been an asinine idea because most of that money goes towards paying off personal debt (laudable pursuit, but one that does not stimulate the economy) or purchasing imported goods (nice for workers in China, but not here at home).


My point is, sure times are bad, more so for some than others, but what should they do? I think you have to say we just took a hard shot and now how do we battle back. You seem to say, well I just took a hard shot so let's roll over and die.

Even in bad times, a household still has to make retail purchases -- a point that seems to elude pix. October was generally regarded as a disastrous month for the retail sector. And what constituted a disaster? A 3% reduction in overall retail sales. It's a sobering number primarily because it's the biggest retail retraction in more than two decades. In absolute numbers, it's not huge. But, given how thin the margins are in retail, that's still enough to create a lot of pain for retailers. The danger lies in how it can setup a downward spiral effect that creates persistent sales declines in the months ahead.

What people are doing right now is shifting their priorities around, and deferring wherever they can. A 3% reduction in retail demand is not a fundamental change overall, but that reduction is not evenly distributed. For example, grocery stores sales went up as they always do, but electronics stores took a big hit (Best Buy reported an 18% sales decline).

In the short-term, no doubt things will get worse. I think the holiday season is salvagable primarily because of pent up demand from October and November masking any reductions in gift and discretionary spending, and because energy costs are way down right now. The real pain in the retail sector will likely start in January and February, especially if stores still have a lot of inventory that they didn't unload in December. At that point, I think consumers will do more reassessment of their shopping habits and you'll see more store closures.

If you're looking for a silver lining, the end of any recessionary cycle is usually accompanied by an upsurge in consumer spending. All in all though, retail growth is primarily a function of population and income growth. Shifts in consumer spending habits not driven by population and income usually take time.

[nightflier]

Oh please. Take these rants to another topic. And that last statement is rather offensive.

This is going to be a long post, but I have a lot to say about this. Tex, I know you don't like long posts, so just skip to the last sentence and you'll get the gist of it (and plenty to respond with, I'm sure).


Look, I was quoting D.L. Hughley, who was commenting on ABC after the first presidential debate. I certainly wasn't implying that the bar is low because the man is black, but what I was trying to say was that there is no chance in hell a black man would ever have been considered at any time before this. The fact is we are just too racist of a nation. Jesse Jackson a few elections back didn't have a snowball's chance of even getting the nomination. And let's not forget the widespread racially-motivated attacks against Obama for the last two months of the campaign. People were wearing T-Shirts sayin "N..., Please it's the White house" and the company that printed these was selling them like hotcakes and bragging about it. Let's call a spade a spade, shall we? There's a whole lot of folks who can't bring themselves to realize that times are changing and that their Jim Crow comfort zone is shrinking fast, so they see no other alternative than to let out their racism in the most public ways. How many attempts have there already been on the man? At least three serious ones (that we know of). Security is tighter than it has ever been at an inauguration. Even the most conservative people who hate everything he stands for are hoping nothing happens so that we don't look so friggin' bigotted to the rest of the world.

And as for the car analogy, I was referring to the sales of December, as people are trying to get a great deal on last year's model. December may not be the biggest traditional selling month of the year for car dealerships, but it certainly isn't the slowest either. But I was also referring to how the failure of our automakers impacts everything in our economy, for the thousands who will loose their jobs, to the fact that the American auto industry is in many ways how Americans identify themselves. It's a matter of national pride that we drive cars, new ones, powerful ones, fancy ones, and most of all, big gas-guzzling ones. Not doing that says something about how we are doing as a nation.

Economics? I had my share of classes in College, so I know a thing or two. I can tell you that the scariest thing to me is that credit card companies are canceling cards by the thousands because the loan crisis has now trickled down to everyday consumers. This means that we can't buy anymore. Sure, the banks got an influx of cash, but after this past year's dismal performance, they're hoarding it all. So businesses can't get credit, homebuyers and card buyers, can't get credit, but what is relevant to this discussion, people can't get credit for everyday purchases. If you have cards that are still active, you'll probably be notified to either stop using them or pay higher interest rates. I got a letter just like this last week.

And as far as Black Friday's numbers, I did a little research and it turns out that what sold was the door-buster deals, not the rest of the stuff. As a matter of fact, door-buster deals generally sold out, but those exist to get people in the stores where they'll then buy other stuff. This did not happen this year. As a matter of fact, the sales figures for the following two days were much lower than last year. This is horrible for retailers because now the consumers (the ones that still have cash) are only looking for door-buster prices and the retailers can't lower their prices to those levels. If they even have the stuff in inventory (because they can't get credit to buy it), they are in the tough position of having to sell less or sell things at smaller margins (which then reduces their ability to purchase more inventory, which reduces their profits even more, and so on).

Bottom line is, if you can find the electronics you absolutely need, you better buy them now, because chances are the stores will not replenish their inventories before x-mas. And next January, short of some drastic restructuring of the tax & wealth system in this country, things will be even more bearish. I keep hearing of a possible moratorium on home mortgage payments (to be added to the end of the term), which would be a godsend to this economy, but it's going to take some dino-sized cojones for any politician to pull that off. Right now, the single most important thing this incoming administration needs to do is unfreeze credit. If it does not succeed in doing that, we could see a permanent decline in the American economy, the kind of decline that will cause massive emigration (mostly by those who can still afford it - and thus taking their money with them) and the subsequent misery for those left behind, thus deepening the crisis.

So while I'm sure that it's comforting to think happy thoughts and hope we can create enough happy thinking consumers to reverse this, the reality is that the amount of happy thinking that would be required isn't even comprehensible. From what I've read the government has already been funneling several trillions into the banking sector for the past year, and there's simply not enough happy thoughts to wipe that out. The tax-base in this country cannot support the expenses we have incurred by such a large margin that it would take 2-3 decades of unheard of surpluses just to break even.

Think the war is expensive? It's a drop in the bucket. And if you consider how much money is still being made by corporations that we need to stay solvent, it's also too expensive to give up. Sure we can shift it to Afghanistan (another place where we're sure to stay for decades, thus ensuring continued MIC profiteering), but it's just shifting the store to another neighborhood with the same quagmire potential. War on terror? That's the best kind - war without end. Orwell warned us and we didn't listen. And all the while human misery continues. The 4000-topping death toll from Iraq doesn't include injuries and suicides. I heard this one yesterday: 18 soldiers kill themselves each day X 365 days. That alone is more than the official toll. We can't keep filling the ranks if we can't afford to have kids, either. Am I deviating from the topic? Not if you consider how many vets will be coming home in the next decade with no jobs to return to. It's all related, and that's what really sucks. All the decisions of the outgoing administration combined to get us in this crap-hole - hence the reason I was thoroughly fed up with it, as an independent.

And this is also why economists look like death when they get out of their 8-hour marathon sessions with congressional leaders. Look, if the banks with all their advisors and research are still hoarding even the money they're getting from the government, that's a sign that maybe we as consumers should too. Of course millions of American already don't have any money to spend in the first place. Something like 7 in 10 homes are more than 3 months in arrears in payments. Likewise over 12% (not the 6% registered) of Americans are out of work. These people's door-buster deals are the basics - hence the reason the ones at the most "inexpensive" stores like Walmart and K-mart were the most attended. But after the door-buster deals were done, they went home.

Another way to look at this is that Americans can only afford to pay for items at cost. This leaves no room for businesses (even corporate raiders like Walmart and Costco), to eek out a profit, even in if they try to make it up in quantity and by putting every other mom & pop out of business. I'm sorry for not having any positive thoughts about this (and I'm about as bullish about the economy as they come), but the more I read about this the more of a hoarder I become. X-mas this year? Guess it's going to be just the TV I bought at Costco - nothing else. That was $950 and I'm even contemplating bringing it back. So I say this to Obama: better do something that's never been done before, because we're way beyond the creek with no paddles, even the boat is gone & we're neck deep in the dried river bed - the last thing we should be doing is also sticking our heads in the sand.

If not having happy thoughts keeps me from getting greenies, well that's the least of my worries right now. I'm more concerned about clothing my kids and putting food on the table. I call 'em as I see it and what I'm reading now, scares the crap out of me. I can only hope Obama does something big, really big, bigger than Roosevelt ever imagined, because the stakes are so much larger now. What he does here, will echo throughout the world.

...And thank God it's not McCain up there.

[Feanor]

Given that the construction sector has been hit the hardest, infrastructure is one of the most sensible ways of generating economic activity and getting people back to work. In contrast, stimulus checks have always been an asinine idea because most of that money goes towards paying off personal debt (laudable pursuit, but one that does not stimulate the economy) or purchasing imported goods (nice for workers in China, but not here at home).
...

If you're looking for a silver lining, the end of any recessionary cycle is usually accompanied by an upsurge in consumer spending. All in all though, retail growth is primarily a function of population and income growth. Shifts in consumer spending habits not driven by population and income usually take time.

A tax reduction? A tax credit in the mail? The poor will either buy imported goods or pay down debts -- and the rich invest abroad.

A stimulus based on consumer spending could be a big problem in that the underlying problem is the the consumers have been spending away beyond their means in recent decades. It's not simplistic to say this is why the current finacial crisis is called a credit crisis. If anyone's going to borrow now, it's got to be the government and they have got to spend it on direct job creation, e.g. infrastucture, which would be to make a problem into an opportunity.

In general, the US needs an interval of a few years during which demand is realigned from junky consumer crap, (say Blu-Ray players), to things that will boost the nation's mid- and long-term compeditiveness and help the environment. And consider this: tax increases aren't necessarily anti-stimulus in this realignment because we aren't relying on consumer demand or private business investment for the stimulus. The money is just as "spent", and perhaps much better spent, on infrastructure as on buying Blu-Rays or building shopping centers.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Well, I do not know how all of retail did, but the month of November was a record sales month for Bluray players and discs. There has been a build up since the summer, but November player sales(and I do not have the exact figures yet, will have them this Wednesday) apparently were so good, that it equalled a complete quarter of sales from 2007 in a single month. Bluray disc sales are pushing replication capacity to its edge, with some titles representing over 25% of the total disc sales. I do not know what is going to happen in the future, but right now Bluray product sales are just blowing up huge, much to everyone surprise, and even during these trying economic times.

[Rich-n-Texas]

I'm doing my part to bolster BD sales. I just processed my Amazon shopping cart that contained "The Dark Night". $24 bucks + free shipping (I added a music CD to the order).

And:

I WANT another stimulus check!!! :yesnod:

[Woochifer]

Look, I was quoting D.L. Hughley, who was commenting on ABC after the first presidential debate. I certainly wasn't implying that the bar is low because the man is black, but what I was trying to say was that there is no chance in hell a black man would ever have been considered at any time before this. The fact is we are just too racist of a nation. Jesse Jackson a few elections back didn't have a snowball's chance of even getting the nomination. And let's not forget the widespread racially-motivated attacks against Obama for the last two months of the campaign. People were wearing T-Shirts sayin "N..., Please it's the White house" and the company that printed these was selling them like hotcakes and bragging about it. Let's call a spade a spade, shall we? There's a whole lot of folks who can't bring themselves to realize that times are changing and that their Jim Crow comfort zone is shrinking fast, so they see no other alternative than to let out their racism in the most public ways. How many attempts have there already been on the man? At least three serious ones (that we know of). Security is tighter than it has ever been at an inauguration. Even the most conservative people who hate everything he stands for are hoping nothing happens so that we don't look so friggin' bigotted to the rest of the world.

And even in this context, I disagree with your sentiment. The lunatic fringe crowd that you're talking about is dwindling both in number and influence (for example, the average age of a Fox News viewer is in the upper-50s -- not exactly representative of the electorate as a whole). You're ignoring the fact that the millennial generation is the single biggest demographic group in U.S. history, and more than half of them have yet to reach voting age. Poll after poll shows that as a group they are by far the most socially and racially tolerant generation ever, and they are showing signs of becoming the most liberal voting bloc ever (the ones that could vote this year supported Obama by more than 2-1, and opposed Prop 8 by a similarly wide margin).

The economic collapse helped Obama because voters blamed it on Republicans. But, all that it did was turn a potentially close election into an Obama landslide. Even without the economy turning south the way that it did, Obama was polling well against the Republicans for most of the year.


And as for the car analogy, I was referring to the sales of December, as people are trying to get a great deal on last year's model. December may not be the biggest traditional selling month of the year for car dealerships, but it certainly isn't the slowest either. But I was also referring to how the failure of our automakers impacts everything in our economy, for the thousands who will loose their jobs, to the fact that the American auto industry is in many ways how Americans identify themselves. It's a matter of national pride that we drive cars, new ones, powerful ones, fancy ones, and most of all, big gas-guzzling ones. Not doing that says something about how we are doing as a nation.

The year end deals peak in August and September, which is also when the new model introductions bring new supply and new buyers into showrooms. December car sales are primarily a small niche that Lexus and other luxury car companies tapped into.


Economics? I had my share of classes in College, so I know a thing or two. I can tell you that the scariest thing to me is that credit card companies are canceling cards by the thousands because the loan crisis has now trickled down to everyday consumers. This means that we can't buy anymore. Sure, the banks got an influx of cash, but after this past year's dismal performance, they're hoarding it all. So businesses can't get credit, homebuyers and card buyers, can't get credit, but what is relevant to this discussion, people can't get credit for everyday purchases. If you have cards that are still active, you'll probably be notified to either stop using them or pay higher interest rates. I got a letter just like this last week.

That's definitely a point that can influence consumer behavior, but in actuality most retail purchases are made as certain percentage of income. On the average, retail purchases account for ~30-40% of income. The number can be much higher for lower income households, and much lower for upper income households.

The credit crunch will affect specific sectors more, like automobiles and electronics, but anything approaching a double digit plunge in retail demand is not something that happens overnight. You also need to consider that while credit is tightening, other areas have loosened up such as energy and housing costs.


And as far as Black Friday's numbers, I did a little research and it turns out that what sold was the door-buster deals, not the rest of the stuff. As a matter of fact, door-buster deals generally sold out, but those exist to get people in the stores where they'll then buy other stuff. This did not happen this year. As a matter of fact, the sales figures for the following two days were much lower than last year. This is horrible for retailers because now the consumers (the ones that still have cash) are only looking for door-buster prices and the retailers can't lower their prices to those levels. If they even have the stuff in inventory (because they can't get credit to buy it), they are in the tough position of having to sell less or sell things at smaller margins (which then reduces their ability to purchase more inventory, which reduces their profits even more, and so on).

It was more than just the doorbuster deals. Reports of sellouts are anecdotal. Bottomline is that discounting was more widespread because retailers were willing to pare down their margins in order to generate sales and unload inventory.

Also, the Saturday sales figures that I saw only had a 0.8% decline from 2007. Hardly what I would call "much lower than last year." Even so, retailers are expecting lower sales simply because they have less to sell, and many of them did not hire seasonal workers this year, so their costs are lower to begin with.

The danger for retailers is in this year's short shopping season, and consumers finishing up their holiday shopping early. Normally, close to half of the holiday shopping occurs during the final week before Christmas. That's really the make or break time. If retailers aren't unleashing massive new rounds of discounting during that week, then you'll know that they've successfully sold off enough inventory to avoid steep discounting. If you see deeper discounts over a broad range of products, then you'll know that the season is already in the tank and the retailer is just trying to cut their losses anyway possible.


So while I'm sure that it's comforting to think happy thoughts and hope we can create enough happy thinking consumers to reverse this, the reality is that the amount of happy thinking that would be required isn't even comprehensible. From what I've read the government has already been funneling several trillions into the banking sector for the past year, and there's simply not enough happy thoughts to wipe that out. The tax-base in this country cannot support the expenses we have incurred by such a large margin that it would take 2-3 decades of unheard of surpluses just to break even.

The losses in the retail sector as a whole are not big, compared to other sectors. The issue is with the thin margins in the retail sector. But, shoring up retail is not going to lift the economy, since it depends almost entirely on population and income growth. It's about either direct investment in activities that get people back to work, or monetary adjustments that provide greater flexibility for growing businesses.


Of course millions of American already don't have any money to spend in the first place. Something like 7 in 10 homes are more than 3 months in arrears in payments. Likewise over 12% (not the 6% registered) of Americans are out of work.

7 in 10 three-months behind? And you talk about others having "happy thoughts"? That figure's just flat out wrong, given that less than 1 in 10 mortgage holders are even one-month behind right now. 10% of mortgages one-month behind is already a bad figure, but 7 in 10 would imply that close to 70 million homes are on the verge of foreclosure. The actual number of projected foreclosures for 2008 is closer to 2.2 million, which in itself is a disastrous number, but nowhere near 70 million.

[Woochifer]

A stimulus based on consumer spending could be a big problem in that the underlying problem is the the consumers have been spending away beyond their means in recent decades. It's not simplistic to say this is why the current finacial crisis is called a credit crisis. If anyone's going to borrow now, it's got to be the government and they have got to spend it on direct job creation, e.g. infrastucture, which would be to make a problem into an opportunity.

Infrastructure investment also makes the economy more competitive. I agree with the notion of direct job creation, especially given how many construction workers are unemployed right now. Like I said elsewhere, retail is a function of population and income. If you want to maximize an economic stimulus, you invest it in areas that can either create wealth in the long run (i.e., technology, research, etc.) or otherwise make an economy more competitive (i.e., infrastructure modernization).


In general, the US needs an interval of a few years during which demand is realigned from junky consumer crap, (say Blu-Ray players), to things that will boost the nation's mid- and long-term compeditiveness and help the environment. And consider this: tax increases aren't necessarily anti-stimulus in this realignment because we aren't relying on consumer demand or private business investment for the stimulus. The money is just as "spent", and perhaps much better spent, on infrastructure as on buying Blu-Rays or building shopping centers.

In actuality, consumer spending does not vary all that much from year to year. What does vary is where that spending goes. It represents 2/3 of the economy, but it's the other 1/3 of the economy that actually generates the most high value added activity and wealth. That high value added activity is what needs the most investment.

[Woochifer]

Well, I do not know how all of retail did, but the month of November was a record sales month for Bluray players and discs. There has been a build up since the summer, but November player sales(and I do not have the exact figures yet, will have them this Wednesday) apparently were so good, that it equalled a complete quarter of sales from 2007 in a single month. Bluray disc sales are pushing replication capacity to its edge, with some titles representing over 25% of the total disc sales. I do not know what is going to happen in the future, but right now Bluray product sales are just blowing up huge, much to everyone surprise, and even during these trying economic times.

Amid the negativity from the tech press, it looks like Blu-ray's going to be this holiday season's big winner. I posted another thread indicating that the Samsung BD-P1500 is currently the #1 consumer electronics item on Amazon -- outselling the Apple iPods, all digital cameras, and all other audio/video products.

I think the signs of Blu-ray's ascendancy is with the disc sales and their increasing market share. Consider that Casino Royale was the first BD title to sell over 100,000 copies, and that only happened last year. Iron Man was the first title to break 500,000, and now The Dark Knight is poised to sell over 1 million copies. Bill Hunt pointed out that The Matrix was the first DVD title to sell over 1 million copies, and that occurred in 1999, close to three years after the DVD format's introduction. Right now, Blu-ray's barely two years old.

The remaining issue I think that might still stumble the Blu-ray format is disc pricing. The CE manufacturers have already lowered the hardware price points, but the BD disc prices cannot stay at current levels if the studios are serious about growing the format.

Even though Blu-ray list prices are comparable to special edition DVDs, and their list prices are now within about $5-$7 of a movie-only DVD release, retailers do not treat Blu-ray as a loss leader like they do with DVD. I just saw that Circuit City will sell The Dark Knight DVD for $15, and charge $27 for the Blu-ray version. A lot of this is on the retailers, but the studios also have some control over wholesale pricing and the MAP (minimum advertised price) agreements.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Amid the negativity from the tech press, it looks like Blu-ray's going to be this holiday season's big winner. I posted another thread indicating that the Samsung BD-P1500 is currently the #1 consumer electronics item on Amazon -- outselling the Apple iPods, all digital cameras, and all other audio/video products.

The funny thing is, while the quality challenged Samsung player is doing so well, It looks like all players, with the exception of the high end are all doing very well.


I think the signs of Blu-ray's ascendancy is with the disc sales and their increasing market share. Consider that Casino Royale was the first BD title to sell over 100,000 copies, and that only happened last year. Iron Man was the first title to break 500,000, and now The Dark Knight is poised to sell over 1 million copies. Bill Hunt pointed out that The Matrix was the first DVD title to sell over 1 million copies, and that occurred in 1999, close to three years after the DVD format's introduction. Right now, Blu-ray's barely two years old.

Iron Man is pretty close to a million now, and still going strong. Warner is shipping over a million copies of TDK to cover advance orders already placed. This titles should reach a couple million in sales before it is all said and done. All of Disney's titles are doing extremely well at this point. However Disney is not suffering the same DVD sales decline the other studio are. We have actually increased our DVD sales over the last four years or so, Bluray is just gravy right now.


The remaining issue I think that might still stumble the Blu-ray format is disc pricing. The CE manufacturers have already lowered the hardware price points, but the BD disc prices cannot stay at current levels if the studios are serious about growing the format.

Even though Blu-ray list prices are comparable to special edition DVDs, and their list prices are now within about $5-$7 of a movie-only DVD release, retailers do not treat Blu-ray as a loss leader like they do with DVD. I just saw that Circuit City will sell The Dark Knight DVD for $15, and charge $27 for the Blu-ray version. A lot of this is on the retailers, but the studios also have some control over wholesale pricing and the MAP (minimum advertised price) agreements.

Wooch, people have found out about Amazon where the typical price of a disc is closer to $20 rather than the pricing structure of a brick and motar. The DVD will not have a digital copy, but the bluray will though. I have about 500 bluray's now. Putting aside the review copies I have received, I have paid an average of about $22 per disc. On Black Friday I bought about 15 blurays, and paid an average of $15 for each.

They are still building replication lines to meet demand, so the cost of discs is probably going to remain pretty stable or may drop just a bit through 2009. After that, I see the price dropping to about DVD levels, as the infrastructure will be pretty built out by then.

[Woochifer]

Iron Man is pretty close to a million now, and still going strong. Warner is shipping over a million copies of TDK to cover advance orders already placed. This titles should reach a couple million in sales before it is all said and done. All of Disney's titles are doing extremely well at this point. However Disney is not suffering the same DVD sales decline the other studio are. We have actually increased our DVD sales over the last four years or so, Bluray is just gravy right now.

I have a feeling that The Dark Knight will be in short supply after tomorrow. Seems like a huge groundswell among Blu-ray player owners for that title.

For Disney, I would guess that it doesn't hurt having Pixar in the stable! Wall-E was my second BD purchase (after Blade Runner).


Wooch, people have found out about Amazon where the typical price of a disc is closer to $20 rather than the pricing structure of a brick and motar. The DVD will not have a digital copy, but the bluray will though. I have about 500 bluray's now. Putting aside the review copies I have received, I have paid an average of about $22 per disc. On Black Friday I bought about 15 blurays, and paid an average of $15 for each.

They are still building replication lines to meet demand, so the cost of discs is probably going to remain pretty stable or may drop just a bit through 2009. After that, I see the price dropping to about DVD levels, as the infrastructure will be pretty built out by then.

I'm kinda old school in that I don't like to deal with mail order! For price on new releases, I now go to Fry's (selling The Dark Knight for $24, which matches Amazon). Otherwise, I'll look at BB, CC, or Target if they have some exclusive bonus or collectible casing (the exclusive "transformable" DVD case at Target for Transformers is one of the coolest things ever to sit on my media shelf!).

I also tried to support certain stores where people I knew worked. Not going down to SoCal as much as before, but I used to save many of my DVD purchases for the DVD Planet store down in Huntington Beach. They supposedly have the largest DVD title selection of any B&M store (thumbing through their bins, I can always find some obscure gem that I never knew about), and their pricing is very reasonable (not the lowest on the week of release, but their regular prices are generally lower than other stores). I like to try and do my part to keep the lights on at places like that, since comparable stores around the Bay Area like Laser City in SF and Cinema Laserland in San Jose have closed in recent years.

But, even Amazon can only discount so much when studios issue Blu-ray titles like Independence Day with a $40 list price. This is ridiculous, given that the DVD version in its various special edition incarnations had its list price reduced to below $20 ages ago, and the BD version doesn't provide anything new aside from higher resolution.

[Mr Peabody]

I have not heard anything about credit cards being cancelled. I still get offers in the mail for them. They are also trying to get people to sign up for department store credit cards as you walk through.

I was out yesterday doing a bit of shopping and it was interesting. First the crowds were not there. I was looking for clothes for my girls. We went to a couple stores and could not find what we were looking for. It did seem the stores were holding back on restocking. We ended up at a mall. Granted this malls traffic has been going down but it was dead. Sears looked like they had some stuff on sale but I think it was one of those deals were they mark it up to mark it down because the prices weren't that great. Macy's I think isn't aware of a recession, after I saw a couple price tags I ran out of there. The Kids Gap had some stuff discounted but a sweater was $45.00, for a little girl? Kids grow, maybe for my wife. Anyway I was about to give up when we wondered into a shop that sold kids clothes. I felt sorry for them and felt like I should have bought more. Their stuff was discounted from the discounts. I bought a couple nice sweaters there and only spent a total of $25.00.

[Worf101]

There are some intractable "nuts" in this economic meltdown that I see no answer for and perhaps some of you folks can help me see my way thru them.

1. I don't consider myself a rampant consumer. I just upgraded my HT system for the first time in 8 years. My computer's almost 5 years old. I have NO joneses to keep up with... I wish America and the world could "get off" the consumer gerbil treadmill. But the flip of this is that our world economy is based on consumerism remaining at post WWII levels. Consumer less or resonably and the engine sputters and halts... mass unemployment... what's the answer.

2. Corporations with more power than nations. Do as we say or you people starve from lack of work. I see this first hand as millions and millions of taxpayer dollars are given to private companies to induce them to locate or relocate in my State. Sometimes some smart individual does the math and in one case the state was paying about 1 million in tax breaks or outrught investment for each permanent job created. This model is unsustainable.

3. Unrealistic levels of growth. The Chinese are begining to see that everything must cool, but new workers need jobs, no growth, no new jobs, no jobs.... unrest.

Wow, I'm depressed.

Da Worfster

[Feanor]

There are some intractable "nuts" in this economic meltdown that I see no answer for and perhaps some of you folks can help me see my way thru them.

1. I don't consider myself a rampant consumer. I just upgraded my HT system for the first time in 8 years. My computer's almost 5 years old. I have NO joneses to keep up with... I wish America and the world could "get off" the consumer gerbil treadmill. But the flip of this is that our world economy is based on consumerism remaining at post WWII levels. Consumer less or resonably and the engine sputters and halts... mass unemployment... what's the answer.

2. Corporations with more power than nations. Do as we say or you people starve from lack of work. I see this first hand as millions and millions of taxpayer dollars are given to private companies to induce them to locate or relocate in my State. Sometimes some smart individual does the math and in one case the state was paying about 1 million in tax breaks or outrught investment for each permanent job created. This model is unsustainable.

3. Unrealistic levels of growth. The Chinese are begining to see that everything must cool, but new workers need jobs, no growth, no new jobs, no jobs.... unrest.

Wow, I'm depressed.

Da Worfster

Lurking behind all of this is if FACT that if we continue to rely on continuous expansion of consumer demand on the world-wide scale, we'll destroy the planet. (And then have nowhere to live.)

Read Jared Diamond's book, Collapse (http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Fail-Succeed/dp/0143036556/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228834075&sr=1-1), and see what happens when societies -- with particular blame on the wealthy and ruling classes -- over exploit their environments or fail to respond to climate change.

[pixelthis]

Lurking behind all of this is if FACT that if we continue to rely on continuous expansion of consumer demand on the world-wide scale, we'll destroy the planet. (And then have nowhere to live.)

Read Jared Diamond's book, Collapse (http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Fail-Succeed/dp/0143036556/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228834075&sr=1-1), and see what happens when societies -- with particular blame on the wealthy and ruling classes -- over exploit their environments or fail to respond to climate change.

MORE "GREEN" BS.
You are confusing village econ with global econ.
There is an unlimited universe of resources out there, enough on this planet alone to last centuries.:1:

[Feanor]

MORE "GREEN" BS.
You are confusing village econ with global econ.
There is an unlimited universe of resources out there, enough on this planet alone to last centuries.:1:

WRONG AGAIN ... :ciappa:

[nightflier]

Wooch,

I transposed the numbers on the home loans reference. 3 out of 10 home mortgages are in arrears according to cbsmarketwatch.com. That means 7 out of 10 are still keeping up. Of course, that's just one source. I've also seen the 10% figure elsewhere, but let's just agree that it's somewhere in between.

What is becoming increasingly obvious is that the kind of consumerism that we've experienced (and that Pix seems to think is unlimited) is actually not sustainable. If I can put in my 2c for a movie that people should see it's Flow: For Love of Water (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1149583/). It's a documentary, but one that is pretty damning, as far as I'm concerned. Water is something we all take for granted but it's a very scarce resource and one who's shortage is a perfect example of over-consumerism and waste, especially here in the US.

I took the day off yesterday to do some x-mas shopping (w/o wife and kids), and while it was a weekday, I did notice how empty the stores were, that is, of people. The shelves were all well stocked. I asked people who work there what they thought of the season and after a little prodding everyone unanimously agreed that it was horrible. I mentioned that Black Friday sales were up according to some reports and they almost all responded with the same type of answer: that may be, but not in my store.

Now I don't know where these positive figures are coming from, but they are not the reality for people here in the OC. And if people with all their disposable cash aren't spending here, then I have to think it's much worse elsewhere. In the past I used to see people lug multiple cartloads to their SUVs on the weekends at our local Costco, Target, BB. and Ikea stores. Well not so much this year. I think when all is said and done this season, it will be much worse than a few early reports suggested. People just aren't spending so much this year, even if they are still buying a few BR movies.

[Woochifer]

I transposed the numbers on the home loans reference. 3 out of 10 home mortgages are in arrears according to cbsmarketwatch.com. That means 7 out of 10 are still keeping up. Of course, that's just one source. I've also seen the 10% figure elsewhere, but let's just agree that it's somewhere in between.

Regardless of the number of mortgages in danger of defaulting, 2.2 million homes were actually foreclosed on in 2008. That equates to over $400 billion of bad debt that the banks and other investors will have to account for.

The only numbers I've seen expressed in terms of 3 in 10 are for the gimmicky adjustable rate loans, and those make up a small percentage of the overall mortgage market.


What is becoming increasingly obvious is that the kind of consumerism that we've experienced (and that Pix seems to think is unlimited) is actually not sustainable.

I agree that there's a limit, but in actuality consumer spending is pretty stable from year to year as a percentage of income. The variable is where that spending goes, when it occurs, and where peoples' income levels are. Declines in the retail sector I think are more a function of declining real dollar incomes (net loss in dollar wages since 2000, loss of home equity, declining stock portfolio values). As income declines, consumer spending behavior changes drastically. Spending in categories like groceries, household supplies, and gasoline do not vary much as income increases. But, for retail categories like electronics and cars, the spending changes a lot as income increases.


I took the day off yesterday to do some x-mas shopping (w/o wife and kids), and while it was a weekday, I did notice how empty the stores were, that is, of people. The shelves were all well stocked. I asked people who work there what they thought of the season and after a little prodding everyone unanimously agreed that it was horrible. I mentioned that Black Friday sales were up according to some reports and they almost all responded with the same type of answer: that may be, but not in my store.

Like I said, anecdotes reflect perception more than reality. The cash register tally is objective arbiter of sales totals. And it's not just "some" reports that showed year-to-year Black Friday sales increases, it's all of them. The reports I read ranged from 3% to 7% increases.

But, again Black Friday alone is not always an accurate barometer on how the rest of the holiday shopping season will go. This year, you had heavy discounting across the board, a lot of pent up demand from deferred purchases dating back to October, and retailers willing to write-down their profit margins in order to move inventory. That equates to a sales increase for ONE DAY, which is all that this thread was about.


Now I don't know where these positive figures are coming from, but they are not the reality for people here in the OC.

Positive figures were coming directly from the actual sales totals. For the "people" that you mention, you have it reversed -- what they are telling you is more perception than reality, unless they are citing the actual sales totals for their store. Retail employees on the floor at places like Best Buy typically aren't in the loop on the daily register totals, unless their manager shares that info (and even then, it's often quoted as a percentage of goal/budget, rather than as an actual sales total).


And if people with all their disposable cash aren't spending here, then I have to think it's much worse elsewhere.

The Black Friday reports showed increases in all regions of the country. For the days since Black Friday, we'll wait and see how the sales figures sift out. They're bound to be down from last year simply because of lower store inventories. The only question is how much discounting will be needed to move the remaining inventory.


In the past I used to see people lug multiple cartloads to their SUVs on the weekends at our local Costco, Target, BB. and Ikea stores. Well not so much this year. I think when all is said and done this season, it will be much worse than a few early reports suggested. People just aren't spending so much this year, even if they are still buying a few BR movies.

And that's what I've been seeing over the past week as well. I went to a Best Buy last Friday night, and at 8pm the store was a ghost town. Could be that this is a new store and they've diluted the market (there are two other Best Buys within 5 miles of that store). Won't know how Best Buy and the electronics sector did as a whole until they report their December sales figures.

In contrast, the local Costco is just as heinously crowded as ever. Then again, it's that way all year round.

[pixelthis]

WRONG AGAIN ... :ciappa:


They have enough oil off of the shore of Brazil to last fifteen years, and that is only the first of many deep drill wells that are ongoing.
Oil shale is plentifull, as is oil sands.
We dont live in a economy that uses oil, we live in a carbon based economy,
one that uses carbon for everything, practically.
But we have coal alone enough to last for centuries.
AND why do you think everybody , including INDIA, has plans for going to the moon?
Because there is enough helium3 on the surface to last millions of years.
One shuttle bay full of helium3 will supply the USA'S energy needs for a year.
With your attitude we never would have left the caves, because it would have cost too much.
JUST BECAUSE YOUR "GREEN" ASS IS TOO LAZY TO GET OFF OF THE COUCH
DOESNT MEAN OTHERS ARENT.
You are the one that is "wrong", along with Malthus and other naysayers who would limit human growth for their own agenda.:1:

[nightflier]

In contrast, the local Costco is just as heinously crowded as ever. Then again, it's that way all year round.

They're probably looking to buy another one of those $950 plasmas, LOL.

By the way our local Costco is also still well-attended, but people aren't buying more than one cart at a time, generally. It also looks like they are purchasing more consumables there than durable goods. I clearly remember, this time last year, how much of a zoo it was. People were hauling everything from gallon-sized peanut jars to TVs to their SUVs in multiple carts at a time. This year, it's usually less, although the number of people is still high.

At Target (of all places) I ran into a former employee of CC. We used to chat quite a bit when he was still working there. He actually had been in the business since he started at Silo. Anyhow, he said that he left CC because the product lines were getting watered down with mediocre stuff. CC used to carry some nice brands, but now it's pretty much down to a few. Now this guy is not the most approachable fella, so I don't know if that's the only reason he left CC, but he does have a point.

Inventory at all retailers has dwindled to a few known names. At what B&M store can anyone by Harman Kardon anymore? Even online resellers are doing this. Remember the days when Audio Advisor stocked YBA and Perreaux gear? Or even more recently when Magnolia stocked AudioQuest & Sonus gear? This lack of choice also may contribute to a lack of interest. Sure they don't have the money for it, but not having the selection and not being able to see what the more exotic stuff looks & sounds like, has got to be a factor too.

Now back to Pix's comments about oil. There is one big problem with deep oil reserves off the coasts of Brazil and other places (Madagascar, Cote D'Ivoire, etc.) and that is that this is expensive to extract. Likewise for oil in sand drifts - very expensive to extract. Now if the price of oil is $100+ a barrel, that's feasible, but now now. It's an inverse relations that does not work when the economy world-wide is in shambles. I'm fairly certain that Opec will raise prices after the Dec. 17th meeting, but this is probably going to be a slow increase over time. There is just too much pressure from every Western consumer nation to do otherwise. This is also why speculative green technology funds have been hammered, because while there is a future in the technologies, the profits are too far off and that distant horizon isn't immune to various other events that could alter or extend returns. Simply put, it's too risky right now.

And while we may be a carbon-consuming society, that does not change the fact that we are also a carbon-based life form who's makeup is mostly water. The kind of cavalier attitude that Pix is suggesting is not in tune with the changes we are seeing all around us. Fortunately, we have a new president who is aware of that, finally.

[kexodusc]

Now back to Pix's comments about oil. There is one big problem with deep oil reserves off the coasts of Brazil and other places (Madagascar, Cote D'Ivoire, etc.) and that is that this is expensive to extract. Likewise for oil in sand drifts - very expensive to extract. Now if the price of oil is $100+ a barrel, that's feasible, but now now. It's an inverse relations that does not work when the economy world-wide is in shambles. I'm fairly certain that Opec will raise prices after the Dec. 17th meeting, but this is probably going to be a slow increase over time. There is just too much pressure from every Western consumer nation to do otherwise. This is also why speculative green technology funds have been hammered, because while there is a future in the technologies, the profits are too far off and that distant horizon isn't immune to various other events that could alter or extend returns. Simply put, it's too risky right now.

And while we may be a carbon-consuming society, that does not change the fact that we are also a carbon-based life form who's makeup is mostly water. The kind of cavalier attitude that Pix is suggesting is not in tune with the changes we are seeing all around us. Fortunately, we have a new president who is aware of that, finally.

Bang on...much of the reason for the current price drop is that demand in emerging markets in Asia et al has slowed to snail's pace, boosting supplies short term while demand is waning. There's a saying in my industry though, "the best cure for low oil prices is low oil prices". There will be less drilling at current crude prices, less oil sold, this will eventually lead to reduced supplies and greater relative demand.

Just a matter of time.

[pixelthis]

They're probably looking to buy another one of those $950 plasmas, LOL.

By the way our local Costco is also still well-attended, but people aren't buying more than one cart at a time, generally. It also looks like they are purchasing more consumables there than durable goods. I clearly remember, this time last year, how much of a zoo it was. People were hauling everything from gallon-sized peanut jars to TVs to their SUVs in multiple carts at a time. This year, it's usually less, although the number of people is still high.

At Target (of all places) I ran into a former employee of CC. We used to chat quite a bit when he was still working there. He actually had been in the business since he started at Silo. Anyhow, he said that he left CC because the product lines were getting watered down with mediocre stuff. CC used to carry some nice brands, but now it's pretty much down to a few. Now this guy is not the most approachable fella, so I don't know if that's the only reason he left CC, but he does have a point.

Inventory at all retailers has dwindled to a few known names. At what B&M store can anyone by Harman Kardon anymore? Even online resellers are doing this. Remember the days when Audio Advisor stocked YBA and Perreaux gear? Or even more recently when Magnolia stocked AudioQuest & Sonus gear? This lack of choice also may contribute to a lack of interest. Sure they don't have the money for it, but not having the selection and not being able to see what the more exotic stuff looks & sounds like, has got to be a factor too.

Now back to Pix's comments about oil. There is one big problem with deep oil reserves off the coasts of Brazil and other places (Madagascar, Cote D'Ivoire, etc.) and that is that this is expensive to extract. Likewise for oil in sand drifts - very expensive to extract. Now if the price of oil is $100+ a barrel, that's feasible, but now now. It's an inverse relations that does not work when the economy world-wide is in shambles. I'm fairly certain that Opec will raise prices after the Dec. 17th meeting, but this is probably going to be a slow increase over time. There is just too much pressure from every Western consumer nation to do otherwise. This is also why speculative green technology funds have been hammered, because while there is a future in the technologies, the profits are too far off and that distant horizon isn't immune to various other events that could alter or extend returns. Simply put, it's too risky right now.

And while we may be a carbon-consuming society, that does not change the fact that we are also a carbon-based life form who's makeup is mostly water. The kind of cavalier attitude that Pix is suggesting is not in tune with the changes we are seeing all around us. Fortunately, we have a new president who is aware of that, finally.


The whole "green" movement is nothing more than an exercise in hubris, kept going by propagandists who prey on a generation who werent taught science in school.
AND THEY ARE SHAMELESS, but what really gets me is they are destroying the classics in order to create propaganda for their "cause".
I dont even bother to watch "remakes" of sci-fi classics because they are usually nothing more than green propaganda, like the current piece of tripe, the day the earth stood still, about us being destroyed , evidently because the rock we live on is worth more than the sentient species that inhabits it.
"GREEN" ADVOCATES TEND TO LIVE IN LARGE CITIES, and think that the rest of the world is one large city, when its mostly empty.
Heres the "facts", we need carbon, because almost everything we do and make uses carbon in some fashion.
AND its lucky that we have such large reserves, and they ARE large.
And there is plenty more in the solar system, several gas giants full as a matter of fact.
Five thousand volcanoes put out more gases in one year than the human race has put out in its entire history.
The whole green movement is just a justification for the biggest transfer of wealh in history,
from those that have to those that do not. Its just the latest attempt by collectivists
to take from those that have and do to those who dont have and dont...work that is.
AND that is ALL that it is.:1:

[nightflier]

Pix, you're confusing a whole lot of different generalizations and stereotypical attributes into a collective mess. In the end, it doesn't further your argument. Suffice it to say that there is enough scientific evidence behind the green movement to support the claims made by their adherents. Let's remember that many who support the green movement are also scientists. Those who oppose it are either financially vested in doing so, or just plain uneducated.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Pix, you're confusing a whole lot of different generalizations and stereotypical attributes into a collective mess. In the end, it doesn't further your argument...
You better hurry and put a copyright logo on this post, else I'll use it every time he responds to one of my posts. :yesnod:

("collective mess") ROFLMAO!

[GMichael]

You better hurry and put a copyright logo on this post, else I'll use it every time he responds to one of my posts. :yesnod:

("collective mess") ROFLMAO!

I think that we all should just make this our signature.

Originally Posted by nightflier
Pix, you're confusing a whole lot of different generalizations and stereotypical attributes into a collective mess. In the end, it doesn't further your argument...

[Rich-n-Texas]

I'm doing my part. :ihih:

[Woochifer]

I think that we all should just make this our signature.

Originally Posted by nightflier
Pix, you're confusing a whole lot of different generalizations and stereotypical attributes into a collective mess. In the end, it doesn't further your argument...

Pix's latest rant isn't even worth a complete sentence in response (for one thing, he barely writes in legible English to begin with) -- I think :out: says all that needs to be said! Still, I can't wait to see how he responds to all-o-ya putting that dictionary description of a pix post into your sigs! :cool:

[pixelthis]

Pix, you're confusing a whole lot of different generalizations and stereotypical attributes into a collective mess. In the end, it doesn't further your argument. Suffice it to say that there is enough scientific evidence behind the green movement to support the claims made by their adherents. Let's remember that many who support the green movement are also scientists. Those who oppose it are either financially vested in doing so, or just plain uneducated.

NOT TRUE.
If you put the facts together there was a one degree, one degree rise in total earth temp in the last century, and this is extrapolated, since the only evidence
used is since the seventies.
Why isnt earlier evidence used? It doesnt fit, and actually shows a decline overall in
earth temp!
Around ten thousand BC the earth was actually seven degrees warmer than it is now,
and these so called "scientists" who say the earth is warming are the same ones that
were saying in the late sixties that it was actually cooling.
I have no "vested" interest in this except maybe I dont want the children of the first
world paying most of what they earn to the children of the third world, which is what
"global warming" is really all about.
This is why the Kyoto treaty calls for some of the biggest polluters (china, etc) to donate
the least to "curing" this non problem.
Not to mentionj that when you actually start giving facts the greenies resort to insults,
like being "uneducated".
If all you can answer with is insults then that is an exelent example that you are clueless.
Why dont you do some research instead of accepting the propaganda you are being
spoon fed without complaint?

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread418538/pg1

[pixelthis]

The arrogance of humanity is actually being used against them, the thought that they
can actually affect the climate on a planetary scale.
If you could actually conceive of just how massive the planetary ecology actually
is you would laugh at this rediculous notion also.:1:

[pixelthis]

Pix's latest rant isn't even worth a complete sentence in response (for one thing, he barely writes in legible English to begin with) -- I think :out: says all that needs to be said! Still, I can't wait to see how he responds to all-o-ya putting that dictionary description of a pix post into your sigs! :cool:


I would expect you to resort to insults instead of facts, since your job of making up lies for the govt would render you unfamilar with them.:1:

[Woochifer]

I would expect you to resort to insults instead of facts, since your job of making up lies for the govt would render you unfamilar with them.:1:

:out:

[pixelthis]

Heres another link , this time to the US SENATE committee on enviroment, with a lot more information.

It haS SEVERAL quotes from distingushed scientists from all over the planet.
Heres my favorite...

“Creating an ideology pegged to carbon dioxide is a dangerous nonsense…The present alarm on climate change is an instrument of social control, a pretext for major businesses and political battle. It became an ideology, which is concerning.” - Environmental Scientist Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder of the Numerical Weather Forecast group, has more than 150 published articles.

WOOCH you dont have to bother reading the link, after all its only from the US SENATE,
AND I would hate to strain that tiny mind of yours, so just post another smiley with the
guy rotating his finger, thats what you are really good at.:1:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2158072e-802a-23ad-45f0-274616db87e6

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Pix, you're confusing a whole lot of different generalizations and stereotypical attributes into a collective mess. In the end, it doesn't further your argument.

I have been saying this for a year about him. And this is not topic dependant, this is how he is with EVERY topic.

[nightflier]

Pix, I didn't mean to insult. I know you have your debates with the other guys, and I'm not trying to get into the middle of that, but you have to admit that the evidence is overwhelming.

For example, I don't accept the 1 degree argument, and I'm pretty sure that the vast majority of the scientific community doesn't either. The figure I read more often is 3 degrees (150% more), and while that doesn't seem like a lot, it means a tremendous change in our environment affecting everything from sea-water levels, to polar ice caps, to climate changes that will change whole ecosystems for good. If you think this will not affect our own food chain, our health, and our lifestyles, then I'm don't think you're paying attention.

Then there is the issue with how fast this temperature change is occurring, nothing like what happened millions of years ago between ice ages. This rapid change is much more likely to have been caused by our pollution of the environment. Anyhow, this isn't my area of expertise, but I do read about it quite a bit. I have good reasons to believe the science behind the articles and to try and change my behavior a little, at least in ways that reduce my own carbon footprint. I debated long & hard about buying a plasma TV, but in the end, the higher energy use and heat issues were very minor, less in fact than many LCDs.

Then there's that little detail about the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica....

[Woochifer]

WOOCH you dont have to bother reading the link, after all its only from the US SENATE,
AND I would hate to strain that tiny mind of yours, so just post another smiley with the
guy rotating his finger, thats what you are really good at.:1:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2158072e-802a-23ad-45f0-274616db87e6

Figures that you'd hang your hat on a MINORITY report authored by theocrat nutcase James Inhofe. He might be the only member of the Senate that's gone further loco than you ... NAH! :out:

[nightflier]

Well Tex, you may just be getting your wish. Last I heard, Obama's team was throwing out numbers like $1000 per person and another $1000 per dependent. Now unless people stick it in the bank (or the floorboards in Texas) and hold onto it for a rainy day (flooding notwithstanding for Texans), most of this money is going to get rolled back into the economy.

If this comes to pass, I am also expecting a lot of upper-middle class people who are still doing OK and who won't consider this a lot of money, to invest the check. That along with rising fuel prices, rising b2b spending, and a few other factors, could really pick up this lagging economy. I'm reading investment projections that specify growth numbers of 100-150% in some sectors in the next 2 years.

Some positive thoughts:

- The one good thing about being the first economy to have suffered a national bail-out crisis, is that we stand a good chance of being the first ones out of the muck. If anyone has the resilience to do it, it's Americans.

- Investing in green technologies is now not only the cool thing to do, but also seen as a good investment strategy.

- If you hate everything green (yes there are still such Cromagnons around, esp. in Crawford Texas), then investing in oil right now is also a good bet. Of if you're neither green nor Texan, investing in new oil exploration techniques is a good way to remain on the fence and still make a buck.

- While house prices are expected to fall some more, they will likely stay low for another 2-4 years. For those looking to buy a house, there is some time to cash in their stocks and put together that nest egg.

- This economy and the green movement are finally reaching the hi-fi market it seems. From everything I've read about Las Vagas this month, it looks like less-expensive, small, energy-efficient, fair-labor, and higher-quality-and-more-durable gear is all the rage. Just look at the products that NAD, Cambridge, PS Audio, Harman, and Martin Logan are bringing to their line-ups.

- Growth in the computer industry is also expected in key areas where the US has always been strong: services, micro-processors, software, security, and networking. I'm not saying to start pouring money into Nasdaq-only investments, but it's worth keeping an eye on this.

- eBay and other auction / used goods sites are growing steadily as well. Not only good for audio-video folks, but also shows that people are willing to re-use much of what before was being thrown out as trash.

- Only 14 more days of Bush/Cheney and the fear that they will screw more up before they finally leave. Like the rallying call during the election: the world can't wait. So provided that the status quo remains for two more weeks, prepare yourselves for the biggest world-wide inaugural celebration we will see in our lifetimes.

Now would we be saying anything even remotely this positive if that guy from Arizona had won the election? ('Forgot his name; wait, it'll come to me... ...Nope completely forgot.)

[pixelthis]

Well Tex, you may just be getting your wish. Last I heard, Obama's team was throwing out numbers like $1000 per person and another $1000 per dependent. Now unless people stick it in the bank (or the floorboards in Texas) and hold onto it for a rainy day (flooding notwithstanding for Texans), most of this money is going to get rolled back into the economy.

If this comes to pass, I am also expecting a lot of upper-middle class people who are still doing OK and who won't consider this a lot of money, to invest the check. That along with rising fuel prices, rising b2b spending, and a few other factors, could really pick up this lagging economy. I'm reading investment projections that specify growth numbers of 100-150% in some sectors in the next 2 years.

Some positive thoughts:

- The one good thing about being the first economy to have suffered a national bail-out crisis, is that we stand a good chance of being the first ones out of the muck. If anyone has the resilience to do it, it's Americans.

- Investing in green technologies is now not only the cool thing to do, but also seen as a good investment strategy.

- If you hate everything green (yes there are still such Cromagnons around, esp. in Crawford Texas), then investing in oil right now is also a good bet. Of if you're neither green nor Texan, investing in new oil exploration techniques is a good way to remain on the fence and still make a buck.

- While house prices are expected to fall some more, they will likely stay low for another 2-4 years. For those looking to buy a house, there is some time to cash in their stocks and put together that nest egg.

- This economy and the green movement are finally reaching the hi-fi market it seems. From everything I've read about Las Vagas this month, it looks like less-expensive, small, energy-efficient, fair-labor, and higher-quality-and-more-durable gear is all the rage. Just look at the products that NAD, Cambridge, PS Audio, Harman, and Martin Logan are bringing to their line-ups.

- Growth in the computer industry is also expected in key areas where the US has always been strong: services, micro-processors, software, security, and networking. I'm not saying to start pouring money into Nasdaq-only investments, but it's worth keeping an eye on this.

- eBay and other auction / used goods sites are growing steadily as well. Not only good for audio-video folks, but also shows that people are willing to re-use much of what before was being thrown out as trash.

- Only 14 more days of Bush/Cheney and the fear that they will screw more up before they finally leave. Like the rallying call during the election: the world can't wait. So provided that the status quo remains for two more weeks, prepare yourselves for the biggest world-wide inaugural celebration we will see in our lifetimes.

Now would we be saying anything even remotely this positive if that guy from Arizona had won the election? ('Forgot his name; wait, it'll come to me... ...Nope completely forgot.)


OH, you liberals are so cute.
You blame 70 odd years of failed policy (basically the notion of a free lunch) and in spite of the disaster you've turned this country into you still beleive in something for nothing.
A TALKING HEAD on some talk show declared liberalism a disease, a refusal to grow up,
a childlike hankering for the "grownups" to magically fix everything.
I have made a few predictions ( all correct) on this site, and I WILL MAKE ANOTHER.
THIS "inauguration" of the first foreign citizen (kenyan) which is a violation of teh constitution, a person who will NOT salute the flag, who has cursed this country,
who has sat on panels with known terrorists, is the beginning of the end for this country.
They are already talking about limiting free speech(they have talked about it for some time,
they are actually going to do something about it)and required "national service" (slavery).
The great freedom experiment is over.
Not that anybody will notice, they will be too busy starving to death:1:

[pixelthis]

[QUOTE=nightflier]Well Tex, you may just be getting your wish. Last I heard, Obama's team was throwing out numbers like $1000 per person and another $1000 per dependent. Now unless people stick it in the bank (or the floorboards in Texas) and hold onto it for a rainy day (flooding notwithstanding for Texans), most of this money is going to get rolled back into the economy.

If this comes to pass, I am also expecting a lot of upper-middle class people who are still doing OK and who won't consider this a lot of money, to invest the check. That along with rising fuel prices, rising b2b spending, and a few other factors, could really pick up this lagging economy. I'm reading investment projections that specify growth numbers of 100-150% in some sectors in the next 2 years.

Some positive thoughts:

- The one good thing about being the first economy to have suffered a national bail-out crisis, is that we stand a good chance of being the first ones out of the muck. If anyone has the resilience to do it, it's Americans.

- Investing in green technologies is now not only the cool thing to do, but also seen as a good investment strategy.

- If you hate everything green (yes there are still such Cromagnons around, esp. in Crawford Texas), then investing in oil right now is also a good bet. Of if you're neither green nor Texan, investing in new oil exploration techniques is a good way to remain on the fence and still make a buck.

- While house prices are expected to fall some more, they will likely stay low for another 2-4 years. For those looking to buy a house, there is some time to cash in their stocks and put together that nest egg.

- This economy and the green movement are finally reaching the hi-fi market it seems. From everything I've read about Las Vagas this month, it looks like less-expensive, small, energy-efficient, fair-labor, and higher-quality-and-more-durable gear is all the rage. Just look at the products that NAD, Cambridge, PS Audio, Harman, and Martin Logan are bringing to their line-ups.

- Growth in the computer industry is also expected in key areas where the US has always been strong: services, micro-processors, software, security, and networking. I'm not saying to start pouring money into Nasdaq-only investments, but it's worth keeping an eye on this.

- eBay and other auction / used goods sites are growing steadily as well. Not only good for audio-video folks, but also shows that people are willing to re-use much of what before was being thrown out as trash.

- Only 14 more days of Bush/Cheney and the fear that they will screw more up before they finally leave. Like the rallying call during the election: the world can't wait. So provided that the status quo remains for two more weeks, prepare yourselves for the biggest world-wide inaugural celebration we will see in our lifetimes.

Now would we be saying anything even remotely this positive if that guy from Arizona had won the election? ('Forgot his name; wait, it'll come to me... ...Nope completely forgot.)

Dont forget the koolaid.
Thats the end for most liberal beleifs:1:

[Rich-n-Texas]

So what's better right now, putting your money under the floorboards, or putting it into a failing bank? .000000001% interest on savings ain't worth the trip IMO.

Latest news has Obama asking for $755 billion to sure up the economy. Where's that money going to come from?

[GMichael]

So what's better right now, putting your money under the floorboards, or putting it into a failing bank? .000000001% interest on savings ain't worth the trip IMO.

Latest news has Obama asking for $755 billion to sure up the economy. Where's that money going to come from?

Printing is running 24/7.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Yeah, no doubt. It's a good time to be a printing press repair man ya know?

(You're really dragging out your last ten posts GM)

[Mr Peabody]

Pix, you say predictions, some say, stating the obvious or restating the obvious. You must be watching too much Sci-Fi or huffing again. Please, if anyone figured out a way to have some one run for president who wasn't born an American we'd have Arnold on the Republican ticket.

Our economy and energy would be fine now if they would have let Bush alone to fulfill his first economic plan, which was to make Iraq the 51st state.

I keep my money in the ammo box, right beside the ammo.

[pixelthis]

Pix, you say predictions, some say, stating the obvious or restating the obvious. You must be watching too much Sci-Fi or huffing again. Please, if anyone figured out a way to have some one run for president who wasn't born an American we'd have Arnold on the Republican ticket.

Our economy and energy would be fine now if they would have let Bush alone to fulfill his first economic plan, which was to make Iraq the 51st state.

I keep my money in the ammo box, right beside the ammo.

a good place for it.
THE media is too busy genuflecting to the "great" obama to do any real journalism.
Hes their boy, just like Clinton.
Basically, if you're a liberal puke like most of the media, you can get away with murder.
Literally.
Like when ron brown was going states evidence on Clinton and wound up in a plane crash with a bullet in his head.
Same old same old.
AND we wind up with the desolation of obama nation:1:

[nightflier]

I have made a few predictions ( all correct) on this site

OK, that was good for a laugh. Now let's get back to reality shall we?

There is so much wrong with your statements, that trying to address each one would take us well beyond the inauguration. But I'm sure you'll pipe down when you get your $1000 check. What will you buy, another LCD?

Pix, I like you for the contrarian comments and the funny pics, but on politics you'll get no sympathy from me. I, and probably most people here are far from being liberals, so the insult just washes off and again, does nothing to further your argument. But it just seems like you can't stop painting yourself in a corner. Once is funny, twice is silly, eventually the joke becomes boring. So how many times will you have to sit in the corner waiting for the paint to dry before realizing that maybe there's a better way? You know from the corner, you might not be at the right angle to see that LCD very well....

[Mr Peabody]

Who ever thinks the media is liberal is not completely plugged in. Almost all syndicated talk radio shows are conservative if not ultra so. Pix, I think you listen to Rush too much. Fox is practically the Republican cheerleader team.

[pixelthis]

OK, that was good for a laugh. Now let's get back to reality shall we?

There is so much wrong with your statements, that trying to address each one would take us well beyond the inauguration. But I'm sure you'll pipe down when you get your $1000 check. What will you buy, another LCD?

Pix, I like you for the contrarian comments and the funny pics, but on politics you'll get no sympathy from me. I, and probably most people here are far from being liberals, so the insult just washes off and again, does nothing to further your argument. But it just seems like you can't stop painting yourself in a corner. Once is funny, twice is silly, eventually the joke becomes boring. So how many times will you have to sit in the corner waiting for the paint to dry before realizing that maybe there's a better way? You know from the corner, you might not be at the right angle to see that LCD very well....

IN OTHER WORDS you are a liberal who thinks that the obamanation is going to pull
us outta the mess that socialism got us into with even more socialism.
As for painting myself into a corner , thats what you and other idiots who voted
for this far left socialist did when you put him in office.
And he used to hobnob with some of the most radical leftists and communists in the country, and he refuses to salute the flag.
One terrorist in paticular that he used to pal around with was the leader of the weather
underground, a group that targeted police officers(and killed a few)
As an ex officer I FIND this paticulary galling.
As for what I "do" with my 500$ "gift" (which was stolen from me in the first place) , well, considering how hes' running the printing presses even before hes in office,
MAYBE I WILL BUY A FEW GROCERIES.:1:

[Mr Peabody]

I see on the news that gun sales have been booming. Assault rifles have quadrupled. I guess people have their priorities straight.

[kexodusc]

Wow, Pix is really throwing out "socialism" and "communism" like it's going out of style.
Funny, some of the more social-democratic countries are the ones in the best position to navigate through the global economic crisis.
Can't have it both ways - it was capitalism, greedy banks with no foresight, and ignorant consumers with little restraint that got us here...not social programs. Unless you're talking about the most expensive socialist program of them all - military spending.
Much easier to blame "Liberals" than to look in the mirror though.

[Feanor]

OH, you liberals are so cute.
You blame 70 odd years of failed policy (basically the notion of a free lunch) and in spite of the disaster you've turned this country into you still beleive in something for nothing.
A TALKING HEAD on some talk show declared liberalism a disease, a refusal to grow up,
a childlike hankering for the "grownups" to magically fix everything.
I have made a few predictions ( all correct) on this site, and I WILL MAKE ANOTHER.
THIS "inauguration" of the first foreign citizen (kenyan) which is a violation of teh constitution, a person who will NOT salute the flag, who has cursed this country,
who has sat on panels with known terrorists, is the beginning of the end for this country.
They are already talking about limiting free speech(they have talked about it for some time,
they are actually going to do something about it)and required "national service" (slavery).
The great freedom experiment is over.
Not that anybody will notice, they will be too busy starving to death:1:

EVERYTHING Pix says above is factually incorrect if not slandersous. Wow, 100% on this test.

[GMichael]

IN OTHER WORDS you are a liberal who thinks that the obamanation is going to pull
us outta the mess that socialism got us into with even more socialism.
As for painting myself into a corner , thats what you and other idiots who voted
for this far left socialist did when you put him in office.
And he used to hobnob with some of the most radical leftists and communists in the country, and he refuses to salute the flag.
One terrorist in paticular that he used to pal around with was the leader of the weather
underground, a group that targeted police officers(and killed a few)
As an ex officer I FIND this paticulary galling.
As for what I "do" with my 500$ "gift" (which was stolen from me in the first place) , well, considering how hes' running the printing presses even before hes in office,
MAYBE I WILL BUY A FEW GROCERIES.:1:

It's posts like this that make me wish that I was a left wing Liberal. I feel embarrassed to call myself a conservative after this.:mad5:

[Feanor]

Wow, Pix is really throwing out "socialism" and "communism" like it's going out of style.
Funny, some of the more social-democratic countries are the ones in the best position to navigate through the global economic crisis.
Can't have it both ways - it was capitalism, greedy banks with no foresight, and ignorant consumers with little restraint that got us here...not social programs. Unless you're talking about the most expensive socialist program of them all - military spending.
Much easier to blame "Liberals" than to look in the mirror though.

Or maybe "appaulling". Like Pix, Congressman Ron Paul on CNN recently said the same thing: the current situation was caused by "liberal" policies. Huh? Say what?

These people really need to get past the stale right-wing ideology and look at the facts.

[Woochifer]

Or maybe "appaulling". Like Pix, Congressman Ron Paul on CNN recently said the same thing: the current situation was caused by "liberal" policies. Huh? Say what?

These people really need to get past the stale right-wing ideology and look at the facts.

But, facts would mean using one's eyes rather than filtering everything through a looking glass! :cool:

Funny how the right-wing meme getting pushed right now is that the New Deal was a failure, and that the U.S. economy just kept stumbling along until Pearl Harbor. The facts are that the stock market quadrupled between the 1932 and 1937, and even after losing half of its value in 1938, the market rebounded back to more than triple its 1932 value in the years before 1942.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

And if you use GDP as a measuring stick of economic activity, here too the size of the U.S. economy more than doubled between 1932 and 1941 in constant dollars. The New Deal basically saved capitalism from itself, and paved the way for massive economic growth in the postwar years. Yet, these right wing hacks keep ignoring the failures of their own neo-Hooverist agenda just so they preach the bankrupt mantra of top-heavy tax cuts and deregulation one more time.

http://www.measuringworth.org/usgdp/

[Woochifer]

Wow, Pix is really throwing out "socialism" and "communism" like it's going out of style.
Funny, some of the more social-democratic countries are the ones in the best position to navigate through the global economic crisis.
Can't have it both ways - it was capitalism, greedy banks with no foresight, and ignorant consumers with little restraint that got us here...not social programs. Unless you're talking about the most expensive socialist program of them all - military spending.
Much easier to blame "Liberals" than to look in the mirror though.

:thumbsup:

[nightflier]

OK, let's see how nutty your comments sound when we reverse the labels:


"OH, you conservatives are so cute. You blame 70 odd years of failed policy (basically the notion of a unregulated capitalism) and in spite of the disaster you've turned this country into you still believe that the system will right itself. A TALKING HEAD on some talk show declared capitalism a disease, a refusal to grow up, a childlike hankering for the "the market" to magically fix everything."

And let's then presume McCain had won:

"I have made a few predictions (all incorrect) on this site, and I WILL MAKE ANOTHER. THIS "inauguration" of the first foreign citizen (Panamanian) which is a violation of the constitution, a person who sells his soul to the highest bidder (yes he has), who has cursed this country (yup), who has sat on panels with known terrorists (check)... is the beginning of the end for this country. They (the McCain & Bush people) are already talking about further limiting free speech (they have talked about it for some time, they are actually going to do something definite about it) and institute "mandatory military service" (the draft). The great capitalism experiment is over. Not that anybody will notice, they will be too busy starving the rest of the world to death."

Isn't it funny how when you turn things around, it sounds just as nuts? Everything you're saying about Obama (sitting down with terrorists, restricting freedoms, not respecting our institutions) can all be said with the far more fervor about Bush/Cheney/McCain, and the whole lot of those old farts who still think we're fighting the cold war. Wasn't it Rumsfeld who was shaking Saddam's hand in that infamous photo? And wasn't it Rummy who had the Abu-Graib torturers on speaker phone in his office wile the screaming was being heard down the hall? Wasn't it Cheney who said he was above the law? Wasn't it Bush who said that like our enemies, he would continue to find ways to hurt his own people? Wasn't Mr. maverick-anti-special-interests-McCain one of the Keating five? Wasn't McCain pushing to bring back the draft? Wasn't it McCain who sought a no-oversight bail-out of the banks? The list goes on an on. Oh, and about that picture of good old Ronald Reagan, didn't his people cut a deal with the Ayatollah to get Carter out of office? Better yet, remember a little scandal called Iran-Contra? Yeah these guys are saints. Good for laugh, Pix, good for a laugh....

Get your head out of your rear and realize that the more you spout off like that, the less anyone respects your point of view or reads what you have to say. Just look at what the other "conservatives" have already posted. Get a clue. Even Tex is getting the hell out of your way. You're like Lyndon Larouche all over the place and crazy as all get out.

But you're a nice guy, I'm sure, so don't take it personally. Aside from your politics, you're probably a great guy to have a beer with. After all that's what they said about Bush before he started torturing, killing, and dismantling this country for everything it was worth. Remember, he was a uniter who reached accross the isles, the papers said. OK, yeah, good for a laugh. Politics make strange bed fellows, they say, but in this case you don't want to be hobnobbing with that crowd, however cozy it may feel under that blanket. Trust me, you really don't. Four years from now those kinds people will be dismissed as absolute loons.

[pixelthis]

Or maybe "appaulling". Like Pix, Congressman Ron Paul on CNN recently said the same thing: the current situation was caused by "liberal" policies. Huh? Say what?

These people really need to get past the stale right-wing ideology and look at the facts.


RON PAUL ISNT A "CONSERVATIVE".
HES' A libertarian, as am I.
Get your facts straight.
And ron paul is right, the current mess is related to liberal policies, its also consevatives fault for selling out the few good ideas they had.
Madoff (with the money) ran a ponzi scheme. Big deal.
It pales next to the govt ponzi scheme, social security.
One thing about conservatives, if they have a bad idea they usually admit it, socialistic
policies , from FDR to the abamanation have never worked.
Even teh moist liberal economists are forced to admit that FDR'S "new deal" wasnt working, it took WWII to get us out of the last depression.
And heres obamanation pulling the same thing, throwing money , worthless printed money, at the problem.
I CAN ISSUE YOU A SINGLE GUARENTEE, "OBAMA"SAN and his policies will fail.
How do I know this?
BECAUSE THEY HAVE ALWAYS FAILED.
Pretty easy prediction.:1:

[pixelthis]

OK, let's see how nutty your comments sound when we reverse the labels:


"OH, you conservatives are so cute. You blame 70 odd years of failed policy (basically the notion of a unregulated capitalism) and in spite of the disaster you've turned this country into you still believe that the system will right itself. A TALKING HEAD on some talk show declared capitalism a disease, a refusal to grow up, a childlike hankering for the "the market" to magically fix everything."

And let's then presume McCain had won:

"I have made a few predictions (all incorrect) on this site, and I WILL MAKE ANOTHER. THIS "inauguration" of the first foreign citizen (Panamanian) which is a violation of the constitution, a person who sells his soul to the highest bidder (yes he has), who has cursed this country (yup), who has sat on panels with known terrorists (check)... is the beginning of the end for this country. They (the McCain & Bush people) are already talking about further limiting free speech (they have talked about it for some time, they are actually going to do something definite about it) and institute "mandatory military service" (the draft). The great capitalism experiment is over. Not that anybody will notice, they will be too busy starving the rest of the world to death."

Isn't it funny how when you turn things around, it sounds just as nuts? Everything you're saying about Obama (sitting down with terrorists, restricting freedoms, not respecting our institutions) can all be said with the far more fervor about Bush/Cheney/McCain, and the whole lot of those old farts who still think we're fighting the cold war. Wasn't it Rumsfeld who was shaking Saddam's hand in that infamous photo? And wasn't it Rummy who had the Abu-Graib torturers on speaker phone in his office wile the screaming was being heard down the hall? Wasn't it Cheney who said he was above the law? Wasn't it Bush who said that like our enemies, he would continue to find ways to hurt his own people? Wasn't Mr. maverick-anti-special-interests-McCain one of the Keating five? Wasn't McCain pushing to bring back the draft? Wasn't it McCain who sought a no-oversight bail-out of the banks? The list goes on an on. Oh, and about that picture of good old Ronald Reagan, didn't his people cut a deal with the Ayatollah to get Carter out of office? Better yet, remember a little scandal called Iran-Contra? Yeah these guys are saints. Good for laugh, Pix, good for a laugh....

Get your head out of your rear and realize that the more you spout off like that, the less anyone respects your point of view or reads what you have to say. Just look at what the other "conservatives" have already posted. Get a clue. Even Tex is getting the hell out of your way. You're like Lyndon Larouche all over the place and crazy as all get out.

But you're a nice guy, I'm sure, so don't take it personally. Aside from your politics, you're probably a great guy to have a beer with. After all that's what they said about Bush before he started torturing, killing, and dismantling this country for everything it was worth. Remember, he was a uniter who reached accross the isles, the papers said. OK, yeah, good for a laugh. Politics make strange bed fellows, they say, but in this case you don't want to be hobnobbing with that crowd, however cozy it may feel under that blanket. Trust me, you really don't. Four years from now those kinds people will be dismissed as absolute loons.


What does reversing labels do?
That just creates a statement that makes NO sense.
Of course when you turn things around it makes NO sense, because its the liberals and their failed policies that have gotten us into this mess.
Libertarians tend to favor conservatives. Why?
BECAUSE THEY TEND TO KEEP THEIR HANDS OUT OF OUR POCKETS.
Oh, they want to stick their nose into our bedroom, but that is managable.
Liberals not only want to tell you what to think and how to act, they want to spend YOUR
MONEY in the process.
Pelosi already has "hate" speech and a revival of bills killing talk radio in place ready to go.
But my main problem with "liberals", besides their collectivist bent and their habit of spending MY money on BS, is their total and absolute HATRED of FREEDOM.
They are scrad to be free, so they dont want to be, which is fine,
but I enjoy MY freedom, and I INTEND TO HANG ONTO IT .
aS FOR THE NEW "LIBERAL GUARD" you think so much of, well, a picture is worth a thousand words.

welcome to the future
:1:

[pixelthis]

It's posts like this that make me wish that I was a left wing Liberal. I feel embarrassed to call myself a conservative after this.:mad5:


THE CONSERVATIVES probably arent too happy about it either.
If you're "conservative" Obama is george washington.
And like I said, I wouldnt be called a "conservative".
A country with a two party system is impossible, what you wind up with is a one party
country with each "party" a wing of the one BIG party, lets call it the demopublican
party.
DOESNT matter who you voted for, its all a scam.
Witness Obamanations choice of a cabinet, mostly Clinton rethreads and Bush castoffs.
They are going to do what the real masters want, only diff between republicrat and democan is that if you elect a "republican" things will go a little slower, with a "democrat"
a little faster.
We are headed to hell in a rollercoaster no matter what, just with obamanation the brakes
been ripped off and thrown over the side.
Ron paul was the only very slight chance to save things, and political opposistion
would probably have prevented THAT.
So here is your collectivist paradise, enjoy it.
The year or so that it lasts, anyway.
This country used to be strong enough to surrvive a liberal administration, but thanks
to Clinton repealing the glass stegal act(resulting in the current mess) and both parties shipping our industry overseas the last twenty years or so, its doubtfull that we will make it through 4 years with a radical left winger at the helm.
Yeah, a big sale on guns and ammo , for TWO reasons .
ONE, the liberals are going to ban em as soon as possible, regardless of what they say.
TWO...you live in America...YOUR GONNA NEED TO BE PACKING.:1:

[Mr Peabody]

It's all good now, Jack Bower is back!

[bobsticks]

I've always liked Heckler & Koch.

[02audionoob]

But my main problem with "liberals"... is their total and absolute HATRED of FREEDOM.


This longtime mantra of the conservatives has always baffled me, considering the conservatives' collective positions on "family values".

[Mr Peabody]

Both parties "mantra" baffle me, I just try to make the best choice of what we have to deal with. For instance, I can't understand how a liberal will chain themselves to a tree or fight to save a whale or something but think it's alright to kill a fetus.

[bobsticks]

It's all good now, Jack Bower is back!

Ja.

4877

[Feanor]

Both parties "mantra" baffle me, I just try to make the best choice of what we have to deal with. For instance, I can't understand how a liberal will chain themselves to a tree or fight to save a whale or something but think it's alright to kill a fetus.

We've got too few trees and whales and too many fetuses.

[Feanor]

I've always liked Heckler & Koch.

H&K MG4E
...

[bobsticks]

I'm in a heavily crowded urban area; I need accuracy over distance...

http://www.rbgungraphics.com/mpfivesixincolor.gif

[nightflier]

Pix, I was trying to point out that labels are just generalizations and that it doesn't matter which way the finger is pointing. But you are far from being a libertarian, my friend, because if you were, you wouldn't be so cozy with the conservatives. What they've done to our liberties in these last 8 years pales in comparison to what any Democratic administration has ever been able to pull out of a hat. And it isn't just family values, either. I guess you forgot about listening in on our phone conversations and emails. I guess that whole bit about Cheney being above the law wasn't a big deal to you? Arresting, rendering, and torturing American citizens doesn't make you wonder, either? I guess an administration that seeks to alter scientific research is OK? Or maybe you like the fact that Bush confers with a higher power before making decisions?

Jeez, you're a Palin-loving conservative. I've know many libertarians, been impressed by the platform many times, and I certainly agree with some of what they profess, but you Pix, are not a libertarian by any stretch. Toting a gun doesn't make you one, either.

[pixelthis]

Pix, I was trying to point out that labels are just generalizations and that it doesn't matter which way the finger is pointing. But you are far from being a libertarian, my friend, because if you were, you wouldn't be so cozy with the conservatives. What they've done to our liberties in these last 8 years pales in comparison to what any Democratic administration has ever been able to pull out of a hat. And it isn't just family values, either. I guess you forgot about listening in on our phone conversations and emails. I guess that whole bit about Cheney being above the law wasn't a big deal to you? Arresting, rendering, and torturing American citizens doesn't make you wonder, either? I guess an administration that seeks to alter scientific research is OK? Or maybe you like the fact that Bush confers with a higher power before making decisions?

Jeez, you're a Palin-loving conservative. I've know many libertarians, been impressed by the platform many times, and I certainly agree with some of what they profess, but you Pix, are not a libertarian by any stretch. Toting a gun doesn't make you one, either.


I dont tote a gun, havent owned one since I quit the force.
And libertarians are not able to run things now, conservatives are a lesser poison.
Its simply a matter of damage, do you know just how much chaos liberals will
cause this country in four years?
And yes I am a libertarian, a Harry Brown Ayn Rand Milton freidman ron PAUL
libertarian.
AND I didnt come to this lightly.
I felt that this philosophy was a good fit for years, but after reading about objectivism
everything just rang true.
Legalize freeedom...

VOTE




libertarian


:1:

[pixelthis]

But, facts would mean using one's eyes rather than filtering everything through a looking glass! :cool:

Funny how the right-wing meme getting pushed right now is that the New Deal was a failure, and that the U.S. economy just kept stumbling along until Pearl Harbor. The facts are that the stock market quadrupled between the 1932 and 1937, and even after losing half of its value in 1938, the market rebounded back to more than triple its 1932 value in the years before 1942.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

And if you use GDP as a measuring stick of economic activity, here too the size of the U.S. economy more than doubled between 1932 and 1941 in constant dollars. The New Deal basically saved capitalism from itself, and paved the way for massive economic growth in the postwar years. Yet, these right wing hacks keep ignoring the failures of their own neo-Hooverist agenda just so they preach the bankrupt mantra of top-heavy tax cuts and deregulation one more time.

http://www.measuringworth.org/usgdp/


give it up.

EVEN liberal economists agree that the "new deal" was a total failure.
Hoover was a failure also, but that was just because letting the free market work would
have been impossible in a country hindered by a central bank.
Yes the "new" deal was a total failure.
AND THE "NEW NEW DEAL" WILL BE THE SAME.
GREAT thing about you liberals, you keep trying something no matter how often it FAILS:1:

[Feanor]

give it up.

EVEN liberal economists agree that the "new deal" was a total failure.
...

Apparently NOT. You exceed even your usual self in obsinate denial and foolishness.

[Woochifer]

give it up.

EVEN liberal economists agree that the "new deal" was a total failure.
Hoover was a failure also, but that was just because letting the free market work would
have been impossible in a country hindered by a central bank.
Yes the "new" deal was a total failure.
AND THE "NEW NEW DEAL" WILL BE THE SAME.
GREAT thing about you liberals, you keep trying something no matter how often it FAILS:1:

Yeah, and you so-called "libertarians" (i.e., Repubs too embarrassed to admit their party affiliation) keep lapping up the GOP talking points that Rush, Hannity, Billo, the Weiner Nation, et al spoon feed you. Just because you hear something in a right-wing echo chamber doesn't mean that it translates to the real world.

Right, the New Deal was a "total failure" even though the economy more than doubled and the stock market more than tripled in the years after the programs were initially implemented. Yeah, we should be so lucky as to live in your free market fantasyland where people can lose their life savings when a bank fails, the stock market has no rules or oversight, seniors have no other subsistence if their 401k or pension fund collapses, and people who get disabled and can no longer work are just left on the streets to fend for themselves. Face it, the New Deal saved capitalism from itself by stabilizing a situation that could've easily spiraled out of control and given rise to the kind of conflicts between extremist groups that plagued Europe during the 1930s. Or do you think that we should have just let fascism take hold? Because that's what happens when corporate power merges with state power.

And now you're claiming that Keynesians are calling the New Deal a "total failure" (guys like Paul Krugman only gripe about it because they feel it did not go far enough, hardly a "total failure")? :rolleyes: Better check what you got on that last WalMart drug run, you ain't thinkin' straight (nothing new, but this is out of bounds even by your diminished standards) :out:

[Auricauricle]

Q. Who you kidding?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/us/politics/13bush.html

A. All of us, alas!

[GMichael]

THE CONSERVATIVES probably arent too happy about it either.
If you're "conservative" Obama is george washington.
And like I said, I wouldnt be called a "conservative".
A country with a two party system is impossible, what you wind up with is a one party
country with each "party" a wing of the one BIG party, lets call it the demopublican
party.
DOESNT matter who you voted for, its all a scam.
Witness Obamanations choice of a cabinet, mostly Clinton rethreads and Bush castoffs.
They are going to do what the real masters want, only diff between republicrat and democan is that if you elect a "republican" things will go a little slower, with a "democrat"
a little faster.
We are headed to hell in a rollercoaster no matter what, just with obamanation the brakes
been ripped off and thrown over the side.
Ron paul was the only very slight chance to save things, and political opposistion
would probably have prevented THAT.
So here is your collectivist paradise, enjoy it.
The year or so that it lasts, anyway.
This country used to be strong enough to surrvive a liberal administration, but thanks
to Clinton repealing the glass stegal act(resulting in the current mess) and both parties shipping our industry overseas the last twenty years or so, its doubtfull that we will make it through 4 years with a radical left winger at the helm.
Yeah, a big sale on guns and ammo , for TWO reasons .
ONE, the liberals are going to ban em as soon as possible, regardless of what they say.
TWO...you live in America...YOUR GONNA NEED TO BE PACKING.:1:

You live in a very dark scary world, don't you?:frown2: :out:

[Woochifer]

You live in a very dark scary world, don't you?:frown2: :out:

That's what happens when you cheap out on everything, including your prescription meds. :out:

[nightflier]

And libertarians are not able to run things now, conservatives are a lesser poison.

Libertarians aren't able to run things? Is that because "libertarianism" is fundamentally flawed? And you prefer "conservatives" to "libertarians"? Well then why not just call yourself a "republican" and be done with it?


do you know just how much chaos liberals will cause this country in four years?

Enlighten me. But first, tell me who the evil "liberals" are that you're talking about. Obama? After the cabinet he cobbled together?


And yes I am a libertarian, a Harry Brown Ayn Rand Milton freidman ron PAUL libertarian.

Ahem, I doubt Ron Paul would be so cozy with Brown or Rand. Let's remember some of the gems of his campaign: eliminate the IRS, using gold as legal tender instead of cash, abolishing the federal reserve, close the border with Mexico (note, not Canada), criminalize all undocumented immigrants (wonder who's going to pick his strawberries), and global warming is just a cyclical thing that humans may marginally contribute to. Look, I appreciated his position on Iraq, but the rest of the platform was way off from contemporary mainstream thinking on the issues. Most scientists, economists, politicians, and academics considered him pretty loony, too.


I felt that this philosophy was a good fit for years, but after reading about objectivism everything just rang true.

This is a rather evasive statement. Are you a "libertarian" or not?


EVEN liberal economists agree that the "new deal" was a total failure.

Really, what "liberal" economist said that?


Yes the "new" deal was a total failure.

How so? I'd say it went pretty well once it got under way.


AND THE "NEW NEW DEAL" WILL BE THE SAME.

These are different times, different relationships exist between banking, corporations, and government. New institutions (many of them products of New Deal thinking, by the way) are now in place such as the SEC, GAO, and others, that did not exist in the 1930s. And then there's the whole WWII and Cold War thing, which despite Bush/Rummy/Cheney's best efforts, will probably not recur.


GREAT thing about you liberals, you keep trying something no matter how often it FAILS

I'm still not clear on what you mean by "liberals." Can you tell me who they are so I can tell them you said that?

And if by "liberals" you mean Democrats, then it may be a sore point for you to have to remember that Democratic administrations nearly always resulted in better economic growth than Republican ones. As a matter of fact, Republicans have always been the ones to plunder the coffers while Democrats tend to bring things back in line with something that actually works for most Americans. Ironic considering the Republican mantra about fighting tax-and-spend-Democrats, don't you think? You don't have to take my word for it, just read your history book, if you have one, that is. If not, there's this socialist institution called a library that you may have to make use of.

You see Pix, I think your recollection of history is a bit off. If anything, it's just not as black & white as you would like it to be. Labels like "conservatives" and "liberals" are a bit hard to pin on any one person or group. Is Obama really a "liberal"? Is Ron Paul really a "republican"? Or a "libertarian"? In the end, they are just generalizations that do little to help us understand what you're really saying. As a matter of fact, I still don't know what you are. My guess is that you're a "republican" but obviously you don't care for their interest in what goes on in your bedroom, bank account, or online activities. In the end, the labels you try to pin on people you disagree with in this forum, are just incendiary vitriol substituting for nonexistent talking points.

Disagree? Go ahead, then, answer my questions.

[Auricauricle]

In all this "liberal", "conservative", "Democrat", "Republican", "Libertarian" discussion, doesn't anybody realise that in all this name-calling there isn't one mention of the possibility that all of these labels fail to address the simple fact that no-one is truly "Liberal" or "Conservative", but All of the Above?

This is the way news is made, boys and girls, and this is the fodder most of us watch when the telly or radio is turned on. The Right rails against the Left, the Left launches a salvo to the Right....It's all Bull**** and you know it! In reality, there is no "Liberal Agenda" or "Conservative Blueprint", it's all window dressing that obscures the plain, banal fact that we are "led" by an elite that is in service of Power and Money.

Geeze, guys!

[Mr Peabody]

A retired cop that doesn't own a gun, there's something wrong with that picture.

[pixelthis]

Yeah, and you so-called "libertarians" (i.e., Repubs too embarrassed to admit their party affiliation) keep lapping up the GOP talking points that Rush, Hannity, Billo, the Weiner Nation, et al spoon feed you. Just because you hear something in a right-wing echo chamber doesn't mean that it translates to the real world.

Right, the New Deal was a "total failure" even though the economy more than doubled and the stock market more than tripled in the years after the programs were initially implemented. Yeah, we should be so lucky as to live in your free market fantasyland where people can lose their life savings when a bank fails, the stock market has no rules or oversight, seniors have no other subsistence if their 401k or pension fund collapses, and people who get disabled and can no longer work are just left on the streets to fend for themselves. Face it, the New Deal saved capitalism from itself by stabilizing a situation that could've easily spiraled out of control and given rise to the kind of conflicts between extremist groups that plagued Europe during the 1930s. Or do you think that we should have just let fascism take hold? Because that's what happens when corporate power merges with state power.

And now you're claiming that Keynesians are calling the New Deal a "total failure" (guys like Paul Krugman only gripe about it because they feel it did not go far enough, hardly a "total failure")? :rolleyes: Better check what you got on that last WalMart drug run, you ain't thinkin' straight (nothing new, but this is out of bounds even by your diminished standards) :out:


We havent lived in a "free market" for decades.
And I have no "party" affiliation, wouldnt be "scared" to admit it if I did.
Liberals however are scared to admit that they are really a theiving bunch of
COLLECTIVIST A-HOLES, who are more than willing to do "good works",
JUST NOT WITH THEIR MONEY.:1:

[nightflier]

We havent lived in a "free market" for decades.

"We" have never lived in a free market. The free market is not possible in industrialized nations. The free market is only possible in Adam Smith's fantasy of the state of nature. If a small society actually tried to live in a complete free market it wouldn't last a single generation.


And I have no "party" affiliation, wouldnt be "scared" to admit it if I did.

Then why can't you admit that you're a Republican?


Liberals however are scared to admit that they are really a theiving bunch of COLLECTIVIST A-HOLES

More unfounded vitriol. "liberals" aren't scared as much as they deny being thieves and collectivists. If you actually stepped back an thought about what you're spouting off, you'd realize it makes no sense whatsoever. You're just angry and this clouds your ability to see the forest for the trees. You're not making any sense and you're alienating most everyone who earlier would have found common cause with some of the things you said. You're not even clear on what you mean by "liberals" since you put some of us into that category, and I really don't think too many of us consider ourselves "liberals." And I can assure you we don't consider ourselves "COLLECTIVIST A-HOLES," as you put it so colorfully.


who are more than willing to do "good works", JUST NOT WITH THEIR MONEY.:1:

This is another one of your generalizations. I happen to know several people who do consider themselves "Liberals" and who actively support several charities, who support the arts, and who also personally go out an plant trees after fires have ravaged an area. I would consider them pretty good citizens actually, and good Christians to boot, since you happen to borrow the term "good works" from the Christian Bible.

There are nothing but holes in your accusations, insults, and generalizations. It would be one thing if you had a good point to make, but this is just insulting and/or plain stupid. Again, I don't mean to throw insults back at you, but you're going off the deep end with your posts and it's gone from being funny, to sad, to just plain boring.

[Woochifer]

We havent lived in a "free market" for decades.
And I have no "party" affiliation, wouldnt be "scared" to admit it if I did.
Liberals however are scared to admit that they are really a theiving bunch of
COLLECTIVIST A-HOLES, who are more than willing to do "good works",
JUST NOT WITH THEIR MONEY.:1:

Spoken like the clueless loner that you are. Don't think we live in a collective? Why not just go Ted Kaczinski on us and live off the land, while typing up some fancy manifesto about the evils of plasma TVs. Might actually get a few facts straight, since you're somewhat less clueless about consumer electronics than you are about economics (care to demonstrate how to calculate a growth rate for us?).

Read a few passages from Atlas Shrugged, throw in some slander from right wing talking points, and you think you have all the answers. The real world is not given to a few fancy labels and factually-challenged generalizations. Your paranoid worldview is no different than anyone who reads Karl Marx or Mao's little red book, and declares themselves a Marxist while claiming that state ownership and the elimination of profit motive is the answer to all economic ills. A true communist system is every bit as much of a pipe dream as a true free market, unless you're given to manufacturing reality in your head ... which apparently you are! :out:

[Feanor]

I dont tote a gun, havent owned one since I quit the force.
And libertarians are not able to run things now, conservatives are a lesser poison.
Its simply a matter of damage, do you know just how much chaos liberals will
cause this country in four years?
And yes I am a libertarian, a Harry Brown Ayn Rand Milton freidman ron PAUL
libertarian.
AND I didnt come to this lightly.
I felt that this philosophy was a good fit for years, but after reading about objectivism
everything just rang true.
Legalize freeedom...

VOTE

libertarian

:1:

I own several guns -- does that make me a Republican ???? :yikes:

Please, God, say it isn't so.

[GMichael]

I own several guns -- does that make me a Republican ???? :yikes:

Please, God, say it isn't so.

Nope. I don't own a gun. You're good.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Uhhh... I own 3 guns and you KNOW which side of the fence I stand on. :smilewinkgrin:

[GMichael]

The right side?

[Woochifer]

Uhhh... I own 3 guns and you KNOW which side of the fence I stand on. :smilewinkgrin:

Uh, y'mean the TEXAS side of the fence (which is opposite from the AMERICAN side)? :cool:

[Rich-n-Texas]

The right side?
Looking north or south? :idea:

Uh, y'mean the TEXAS side of the fence (which is opposite from the AMERICAN side)?
Are you badmouthing the Republic of Texas again crazy man from La La Land?

[nightflier]

You know, I think a lot of people would welcome a secession of Texas from the Union, right now.

[GMichael]

Looking north or south? :idea:



West. Duh.....:crazy:

[Rich-n-Texas]

You know, I think a lot of people would welcome a secession of Texas from the Union, right now.
You know, I think a lot of people would welcome a really big earthquake in Cali La La Land. :biggrin5:

[GMichael]

You mean all the people who own land in Nevada?

[Woochifer]

Are you badmouthing the Republic of Texas again crazy man from La La Land?

Oh ... no ... I ... would ... NEVER ... do ... anything ... like ... thayat! :rolleyes:

[Rich-n-Texas]

I'm sure they'd welcome the beach, don't ya think?

This thread sure has turned into a train wreck! That's fer sherr! :ihih:

[GMichael]

Everyone was done fighting anyhow. Least till Pix comes back.

[nightflier]

Yeah what happened to Pixie?

Hmmm, wonder if there's any relation to "pixie snot."

[GMichael]

Yeah what happened to Pixie?

Hmmm, wonder if there's any relation to "pixie snot."

He only posts at night. Check the times on them.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Yeah. Try to keep up flyboy. :rolleyes:

[nightflier]

Yeah. Try to keep up flyboy. :rolleyes:

...tying everything down for that major earthquake that's going to send my state floating off into the ocean....

[Auricauricle]

Gotta few cracks here...Whup?

I don't Libertarianism has much t'do with a any particular brand of political ideology; it's just a way of life, doncha think?

[Mr Peabody]

Where was a train wreck?

[Rich-n-Texas]

What? We were talking about the earthquake Mr. P!

There you go again. :nonod:

[Mr Peabody]

The earthquake caused a train wreck?

[Rich-n-Texas]

Well, the entire state of California is a train wreck, but that's beside the point.

[GMichael]

...tying everything down for that major earthquake that's going to send my state floating off into the ocean....
States don't float very well. Hope ya got a dingy.

[Rich-n-Texas]

...and really long oars...

[Auricauricle]

You guys are cracking up....

[pixelthis]

Gotta few cracks here...Whup?

I don't Libertarianism has much t'do with a any particular brand of political ideology; it's just a way of life, doncha think?


The closest thing is probably objectivism.
And freedom is not only a "way of life", its the only way to live.:1:

[Auricauricle]

Nah. Objectivism is the basis of what we call science; as in "objective" (dispassionate).

An' yer right: 'Tis the only way t' live....

BRING OUT THE TROLLOPS!

[pixelthis]

Nah. Objectivism is the basis of what we call science; as in "objective" (dispassionate).

An' yer right: 'Tis the only way t' live....

BRING OUT THE TROLLOPS!

I AM TALKING ABOUT the philosophy of objectivism, which was created by Nanthaniel Braden and Ayn Rand.
Read the fountainhead or Atlas shurgged sometimes.
Might learn something.:1:

[Woochifer]

Well, the entire state of California is a train wreck, but that's beside the point.

Yeah, that's explains why the biggest out-of-state TAMU alumni chapter is in lovely Bakersfield!

[Mr Peabody]

I GM had a dingy he wouldn't have to ask his mastorbator question.

Pix, Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose. Thanks Janis

Wooch, they set up in Bakersfield because they also like Buck Owens

[Worf101]

I AM TALKING ABOUT the philosophy of objectivism, which was created by Nanthaniel Braden and Ayn Rand.
Read the fountainhead or Atlas shurgged sometimes.
Might learn something.:1:
That brand of determinism sold by Rand is the biggest pile of steaming, garbarge I've ever read. You'd get just as much "truth" out of the Norse Myths or the tales of Arthur Pendragon and his Knights of the Round Table puhlease...

Da Worfster

[Rich-n-Texas]

Yeah, that's explains why the biggest out-of-state TAMU alumni chapter is in lovely Bakersfield!
I'm afraid you're going to have to do better than that Wooch. TAMU? The alumni there #1. don't even know how to start a fire, and #B, the recent grads don't know how to fly helicopters. If you're ever in Bakersfield, always look up! :yikes:

[Feanor]

That brand of determinism sold by Rand is the biggest pile of steaming, garbarge I've ever read. You'd get just as much "truth" out of the Norse Myths or the tales of Arthur Pendragon and his Knights of the Round Table puhlease...

Da Worfster

Couldn't agree more with your first sentence. :thumbsup: However I'd say you'll get more truth and much more enjoyment from Norse myths or the Arthurian legends.

The notion the Objectivist anarcho-captitalism could actually work in practice is IDIOTIC. Recent events have demonstrated this.

[GMichael]

If GM's dingy was any bigger it would need it's own zip code.



There, fixed it for ya.:thumbsup:

[nightflier]

I AM TALKING ABOUT the philosophy of objectivism, which was created by Nanthaniel Braden and Ayn Rand. Read the fountainhead or Atlas shurgged sometimes.
Might learn something.:1:

Read them and besides being bored enough to actually want to start smoking pot (thanks for the visual), I didn't learn much. As the rest of the folks have said, it simply does not apply to reality, and frankly Rand could have explained this in less than 1000+ pages.

Now could you guys grow up and stop talking about how big your "dingies" are. Jeez.
:shocked:

[GMichael]

Now could you guys grow up and stop talking about how big your "dingies" are. Jeez.
:shocked:
Nope. I refuse to grow up.:ciappa:

[Auricauricle]

I read "Fountainhead" years ago....I've moved on.

Geez, a dingy row about Rand. What next?!

[Woochifer]

I'm afraid you're going to have to do better than that Wooch. TAMU? The alumni there #1. don't even know how to start a fire, and #B, the recent grads don't know how to fly helicopters. If you're ever in Bakersfield, always look up! :yikes:

No, it just illustrates what parts of Cali draws the Tejans. I will say that I've been to both places, and I can see why Tejans are drawn to Bakersfield. :cool:

[Woochifer]

Wooch, they set up in Bakersfield because they also like Buck Owens

:lol: Don't forget that Merle Haggard also got his start down there.

[Mr Peabody]

There, fixed it for ya.:thumbsup:

LOL!

For those of you who will not sing
You must be playing with your own dingy-a-ling
Oh.. my dingy thing..... oh my dingy thing.... you must be playing with your own dingy thing!!!