Hollywood Reporter: Toshiba to Drop HD-DVD

[Woochifer]

Looks like the format war's end is looming.

Even though it's widely expected that HD-DVD won't last much longer, this is the first published report I've seen that explicitly puts a timeline on HD-DVD's demise. The Hollywood Reporter is citing "reliable industry sources" that Toshiba will pull the plug on HD-DVD "sometime in the coming weeks." Here's a choice quote from one of Toshiba's execs:


But she hinted that something's in the air. "Given the market developments in the past month," she said, "Toshiba will continue to study the market impact and the value proposition for consumers, particularly in light of our recent price reductions on all HD DVD players."

Translated, that pretty much means that Toshiba's price cutting and other efforts to reverse the trends persisting in Blu-ray's favor have failed, and they're now plotting the exit strategy. Would make sense if Toshiba's moves have been aimed towards thinning out their inventory before killing the format, with some faint hope that lower prices would be enough to keep the format afloat.

The article has numerous other interesting bits of information, like Toshiba continuing to lose money on each HD-DVD player (potentially "several hundred dollars" per player). The Hollywood Reporter is a generally reliable source for industry news, but over the course of this format war even credible news sources have published information that turned out to be wrong, or at least premature (like Financial Times' article about Paramount flipping back to Blu-ray, which has yet to happen), so anything's still possible at this point, even if in practical terms this format war is already over.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ib77125d96b22e86027d0bfb0c25aa58d

[braxus]

I was waiting for some news on Paramount flipping back to Blu, but as you've said nothing has come of that yet. I have since decided to sell off the couple HD-DVDs I have bought and I'll wait till they come out on Blu Ray. Better to get rid of them now then when no one will want them.

[GMichael]

This is not the last nail in the coffin, but It's HD-DVD throwing itself onto it's sword. Step back folks. This may get messy.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

This is not the last nail in the coffin, but It's HD-DVD throwing itself onto it's sword. Step back folks. This may get messy.

Getting messy? I am wiping the blood off my face and washing my clothes as we speak.

In terms of Paramount going blu, it is happening as we speak. The BDA has opened two more voting seats on the board, and Paramount is working with duplicators to get some line space. It is going to happen. Universal is another story though. None of their masters are done well, and it is going to cost them dearly to remaster all the titles that need it. So aside from recent releases, it is going to take them a while to get their bluray act together. As far as that nail, get the hammer and start nailing that coffin, Toshiba is going to make their announcement any day now.

[L.J.]

Hmmm....Wonder if I should sell off my 12 titles and just keep the player in a different room for DVD's :idea:

[GMichael]

I'm going to keep mine. After all, they will still play long after they stop selling more.

[L.J.]

I'm going to keep mine. After all, they will still play long after they stop selling more.

Yeah I'm thinking about the shelf space though. I'd perfer to put something there that I'm gonna use a few times per week, not once per month. I can only watch HDDVD exclusives(Kong, Transformers, Batman) so many times, ya know.

It would actually be better if I invested more in HDDVD and had 40/50 titles to watch. 12 is just a screwed up amount to justify leaving the player there.

No need to sell the player though, just the movies.

[GMichael]

Yeah I'm thinking about the shelf space though. I'd perfer to put something there that I'm gonna use a few times per week, not once per month. I can only watch HDDVD exclusives(Kong, Transformers, Batman) so many times, ya know.

It would actually be better if I invested more in HDDVD and had 40/50 titles to watch. 12 is just a screwed up amount to justify leaving the player there.

No need to sell the player though, just the movies.


If you are going to use it to play std DVD's then why not use it to also play your HD-DVD's? Any HD-DVD's you sell (at reduced value) you'll have to replace with BR disks anyhow. They'll take up the same amount of room.

[kexodusc]

With Walmart pulling out of HD-DVD, the funeral date is pretty much the only thing remaining.
Now the question is - was the R&D cost, and loss-leading support of HD-DVD sales justified by the extended life of DVD (realistically by maybe 2 years?) I'm not sure the royalties are that lucrative. Maybe. Only Toshiba knows for sure.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Pix knows. And he'll be along later to tell everybody... "I told ya so".

[L.J.]

If you are going to use it to play std DVD's then why not use it to also play your HD-DVD's? Any HD-DVD's you sell (at reduced value) you'll have to replace with BR disks anyhow. They'll take up the same amount of room.

OK GM....if it'll make you happy, I'll keep the 12 friggin movies :incazzato:

[GMichael]

OK GM....if it'll make you happy, I'll keep the 12 friggin movies :incazzato:

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound pushy. I just wanted to understand.

[L.J.]

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound pushy. I just wanted to understand.

I was actually refering to the A2 taking up a spot on my entertainment stand. Doesn't make any sense to leave it there to playback 12 movies. I figured the war would stretch on and I would end up with plenty of titles from both formats. It's fine for now though...well at least until I get a xbox or wii. It would get more use up front or in my bedroom as a DVD player, but I would never watch a HD DVD movie on it. Once those titles are replaced with BR, I'd have no use for them on HDDVD. I only watch movies on my main system :)

Now if I had a 92" screen & HT in my bedroom, like some people, it would be a different story :incazzato:

[GMichael]

I

Now if I had a 92" screen & HT in my bedroom, like some people, it would be a different story :incazzato:

My wife has discovered the joys of HT. She has completely taken over the bedroom system. The only way I'd get to use that system is if I want to join her to watch Judge Judy or American Idol. I'd rather take a bullet in my hard drive.

[L.J.]

My wife has discovered the joys of HT. She has completely taken over the bedroom system. The only way I'd get to use that system is if I want to join her to watch Judge Judy or American Idol. I'd rather take a bullet in my hard drive.

92" screen in your bedroom and you guys are watching Judge Judy!!!!


Sad...very sad :cornut:

[pixelthis]

Pix knows. And he'll be along later to tell everybody... "I told ya so".


I have always "known", like I said I have seen this dozens of times.
And its not a question of tosh pulling the plug, they have been planning this for awhile now.
Just a question of getting out with the maximum number of fingers and toes.
I wouold like to say that if the industry has learned anything from this expensive
debacle then it might be worth it, but they haven't, they never do.
Blu was the better system from the start and had wide industry support before this little "war" even got started.
Now if they wanted to flush several hundred mill down the toilet fine, its their business.
Just wish they could have slipped me a couple of mill, what diff would it have made?
As for the format wars in general I have one thing to say...
NEXT:1:

[GMichael]

92" screen in your bedroom and you guys are watching Judge Judy!!!!


Sad...very sad :cornut:

Tell me about it.
sniff sniff.

So now we have two projectors running at the same time each night.

[Rich-n-Texas]

Oh sh!t! Everybody be quiet. Looks like pix got the night off.

[GMichael]

I have always "known", like I said I have seen this dozens of times.
And its not a question of tosh pulling the plug, they have been planning this for awhile now.
Just a question of getting out with the maximum number of fingers and toes.
I wouold like to say that if the industry has learned anything from this expensive
debacle then it might be worth it, but they haven't, they never do.
Blu was the better system from the start and had wide industry support before this little "war" even got started.
Now if they wanted to flush several hundred mill down the toilet fine, its their business.
Just wish they could have slipped me a couple of mill, what diff would it have made?
As for the format wars in general I have one thing to say...
NEXT:1:

What are you doing posting during the day? Won't you get a sunburn?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

This fool is the biggest bull$hit artist on this site.


I have always "known", like I said I have seen this dozens of times.
And its not a question of tosh pulling the plug, they have been planning this for awhile now.

I guess you knew more the Ken Graffeo and Sally Jodi? You are full of it. They have not been planning this a while. They had no idea that Warner was going to make the announcement they did. If they did, do you really think the DVD forum would have approved the next to final version of the TL-51 disc white paper? Why pay Universal an additional $75 million to support the product until the fall? At the last DVD forum meeting, both Graffeo and Jodi were giddy as school girls at the passing of TL-51, if they had been planning an exit, why all the joy? Did you really think they knew about Walmart? I do not think so, because I know for a fact the decision was a last minute decision, and the BDA didn't know about it until about 24 hours before the announcement. If they knew this for a long time, why did Ventura release a player at the end of last year? Seems to me they could have quit production immediately and would not have to fire sale their players like Toshiba is doing. That could not have been good for their bottom line. This is hogwash, bullocks, bull, they have not been planning this a while. This is just a plain old lie from somebody who is a nobody trying to be somebody.


Just a question of getting out with the maximum number of fingers and toes.
I wouold like to say that if the industry has learned anything from this expensive
debacle then it might be worth it, but they haven't, they never do.

The lesson was out there for Toshiba to learn. Sony and Betamax should have taught them something. However, I would not be so quick to blame toshiba for all of this. Microsoft played a huge role in getting Toshiba to market HD DVD. Microsoft was the one that encouraged Toshiba to release HD DVD when Toshiba was about to throw in the towel before HD DVD official release. Toshiba saw the handwriting on the wall when members of the BDA who were also members of the DVD forum where constantly obstaining from voting on HD DVD. However it was Microsoft that encourage them to stay in it, and promised them they would support them to the end. When Toshiba went to negotiate with Warner, Microsoft was no were to be found.

I think before you make these off the cuff statements, you need to do ALOT more homework. The music business is not the movie business. Player manufacturers do not make software. Studios do not make players(not even Sony Home Entertainment). You have a penchant for doing alot of mixing and mashing so your pea brain can process the complexity. It may be good for your convience, but it is not accurate or truthful.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

What are you doing posting during the day? Won't you get a sunburn?

You ever heard of the freaks come out at night. Posting is his day job. He is freakin at night!

[Rich-n-Texas]

Somebody's fired up tonite!!! :thumbsup: Sir T

[diggity]

is is all very, very interesting indeed. but as the saying goes,"it's not all over till the fat lady sings", and i dont know about anyone else but i don't see one just yet. the amount of money being thrown at hd-dvd by microsoft to keep this "battle" going and universal persistance wont end overnight (though i wish it would). and besides at the moment its all conjecture at the moment by "reliable sources" who remain unnamed.

cheers: dazza

[diggity]

oops just read L.J's thread about wal-mart. but the fat lady hasn't sung yet, she's just warming up her vocal chords. i still think there will be one more interesting developement in this story before she sings.

cheers: dazza

ps: for sale one hd format. one careful owner. all research done, may need marketing makeover. only one competing format (which we think isn't as good). buy now and also receive two contracts from high profile studios absolutely free. needs to be sold fast as owner is moving away. interesting offers considered. please make all genuine enquiries via e-mail.

(oh please god, someone make an offer)

[Woochifer]

is is all very, very interesting indeed. but as the saying goes,"it's not all over till the fat lady sings", and i dont know about anyone else but i don't see one just yet. the amount of money being thrown at hd-dvd by microsoft to keep this "battle" going and universal persistance wont end overnight (though i wish it would). and besides at the moment its all conjecture at the moment by "reliable sources" who remain unnamed.

You might regard it as conjecture. But, if Toshiba's continuing to lose money on each unit sold and continuing to bleed market share every week despite steep price reductions, logic would dictate that at some point they'll come to their senses and quit throwing money into that sink hole. And even if Toshiba persists in pushing a losing format, retailers won't, as evidenced by the announcements just this week from Netflix, Best Buy, and Wal-Mart.



oops just read L.J's thread about wal-mart. but the fat lady hasn't sung yet, she's just warming up her vocal chords. i still think there will be one more interesting developement in this story before she sings.

cheers: dazza

ps: for sale one hd format. one careful owner. all research done, may need marketing makeover. only one competing format (which we think isn't as good). buy now and also receive two contracts from high profile studios absolutely free. needs to be sold fast as owner is moving away. interesting offers considered. please make all genuine enquiries via e-mail.

(oh please god, someone make an offer)

I don't think there are any more interesting developments in the offing, unless you're taking about Toshiba going Blu-ray. Even if Toshiba continues to trudge along, and even if Blockbuster, Netflix, Best Buy, and Wal-Mart hadn't dialed back their support for HD-DVD, the format got put onto the fast track to oblivion when Warner announced that they would drop HD-DVD. It basically eliminated HD-DVD's strongest studio partner, and signaled to retailers that the end was near.

As I've stated before, HD-DVD's market share has now slipped below 25% in North America, and that's with Warner still releasing HD-DVD titles. Retailers know that the writing's on the wall for HD-DVD, and won't wait for any announcements from Toshiba, Microsoft, Universal, and Paramount before taking matters into their own hands. Retail shelf space is too valuable to be occupied by a soon-to-be orphaned format for very long.

[diggity]

i agee with 100% and i am suprised hd-dvds' market share is that high. here in australia i would think it is less than 15%. and it is about time this "Battle" is over so we can all enjoy movies in hd without any concerns over formats.and like i said before i think most hd-dvd title sales are actually the give aways they offer with the players. i'll just wait with eagerness the day it will finally be done and dusted with.

cheers: dazza

[markw]

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9869568-1.html

I won't even get into WalMart here.

So, another format war draws to a close. It's now down to minimizing the losses.

The great Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD battle now enters the realms of history along with:

The numerous record eq formats that existed before the RIAA stepped in to impose order.
Beta vs VHS, where superior technology proved no match for superior marketing.
The quad triplets (SQ,QS and CD-4) who bludgeoned each other into submission while we all sat back and watched. This also seems to be happening with SACD?DVD-Audio as well)
AM stereo, but who even knew about this, much less cared about it anyway.

...and others Feel free to add to this list.

[filecat13]

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9869568-1.html

I won't even get into WalMart here.

So, another format war draws to a close. It's now down to minimizing the losses.

The great Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD battle now enters the realms of history along with:

The numerous record eq formats that existed before the RIAA stepped in to impose order.
Beta vs VHS, where superior technology proved no match for superior marketing.
The quad triplets (SQ,QS and CD-4) who bludgeoned each other into submission while we all sat back and watched. This also seems to be happening with SACD?DVD-Audio as well)
AM stereo, but who even knew about this, much less cared about it anyway.

...and others Feel free to add to this list.

RCA CED vs LD
LD vs VCD vs DVD
now apparently DVD vs BD vs MPEG-4/H.264

For my money I'm skipping the BD (and obviously the HD-DVD) in anticipation of streaming or downloadable HD content. It's not quite here, but will be sooner than later, and I don't need another piece of obsolete equipment in the garage and dozens or hundreds of obsolete pieces of media.

Besides, with my viewing habits, I'll save hundreds of dollars per year by renting via iTunes or some other source when it's ready. For the nonce, DVDs will do just fine. BluRay can bask in short-lived victory, but I anticipate it will fall quickly to a competitor that it cannot effectively fight: MPEG-4/H.264 files on your hard drive or media server.

[Woochifer]

RCA CED vs LD
LD vs VCD vs DVD
now apparently DVD vs BD vs MPEG-4/H.264

And let's not forget DIVX v. DVD! :sleep:


For my money I'm skipping the BD (and obviously the HD-DVD) in anticipation of streaming or downloadable HD content. It's not quite here, but will be sooner than later, and I don't need another piece of obsolete equipment in the garage and dozens or hundreds of obsolete pieces of media.

Besides, with my viewing habits, I'll save hundreds of dollars per year by renting via iTunes or some other source when it's ready. For the nonce, DVDs will do just fine. BluRay can bask in short-lived victory, but I anticipate it will fall quickly to a competitor that it cannot effectively fight: MPEG-4/H.264 files on your hard drive or media server.

Had plenty of discussion already on this topic. I used to believe the same thing, but then I look at how heavily the studios have locked down digital downloads -- basically relegating them to VOD/rental replacements. The home video market has transitioned into primarily a sell-through market -- the majority of revenue now comes from purchased content, not rentals or PPV or VOD.

So long as the studios continue to treat downloads as a heavily locked down exercise and make a huge chunk of titles available for rental only, this won't replace disc media. Right now, studios make a lot more from disc purchases than from rental revenue. Unless a business model can be developed that creates higher revenue potential from downloads, the studios will likely continue to stack the deck in favor of purchase media, whether that's DVD or Blu-ray.

In addition, in order to make the files feasible for a typical household, the file has to be heavily compressed and use the lowest resolution possible for 5.1 audio. MAnd even at borderline acceptable HD image quality, it won't take much to fill up a hard drive, which again limits the appeal of downloading for collectors.

Plus, there's the current reality of bandwidth limitations for most households (even with a 3.0 MB broadband service, it will still take well over an hour to download a minimal HD movie file -- i.e., 720p resolution and low bandwidth 5.1 audio), and the future reality of broadband providers imposing traffic throttling or bandwidth surcharges on video downloading and/or heavy internet usage.

With Blu-ray, you're talking about a 50 GB disc capacity, 1080p resolution, and lossless audio. No way that downloads can feasibly match that now or anytime soon. And all of the current HD download options currently on the market have a significant limitation of some kind that severely limit their appeal for your average technically challenged Joe6p.

I think the market will transition over to Blu-ray once hardware prices get to within striking distance of upconverting DVD players, and at the rate that hardware prices have declined since the format's introduction, that could happen by the end of the year. I doubt that people will repurchase their existing DVD collections in droves (and catalog titles are what drove the phenomenal growth of the DVD format until the most of the heavily demanded titles had already come out), but they will simply opt to buy a Blu-ray version in lieu of the DVD on the date of release for new titles.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

RCA CED vs LD
LD vs VCD vs DVD
now apparently DVD vs BD vs MPEG-4/H.264

For my money I'm skipping the BD (and obviously the HD-DVD) in anticipation of streaming or downloadable HD content. It's not quite here, but will be sooner than later, and I don't need another piece of obsolete equipment in the garage and dozens or hundreds of obsolete pieces of media.

Besides, with my viewing habits, I'll save hundreds of dollars per year by renting via iTunes or some other source when it's ready. For the nonce, DVDs will do just fine. BluRay can bask in short-lived victory, but I anticipate it will fall quickly to a competitor that it cannot effectively fight: MPEG-4/H.264 files on your hard drive or media server.

I think you assesment of the market place might be a bit off base. You are going to be waiting a long time for downloads to overtake bluray.

1. The studios are not making any major revenue from downloads, so you are not going to see them releasing their "A" list titles until after sales of DVD's and Bluray's die down. What is out there will not look much like HD when you compare it to what you get on disc.

2. You had better hope you do not have comcast or Warner cable, or you will be paying dearly for your downloads once it get past a certain point. They want you to get VOD, not apple Itunes. They are not going to do a dang thing to help their competitor.

3. Cable and the download services(Apple and Microsoft) are starting what appears like a war with each other. Apple scores major contracts with studios for television and some movies, Comcast and Warner announce download limits, of which when you go over them, it costs you dearly. VOD against streaming and downloading services, that is the next battle. People seem to be ignoring this while playing up HD DVD versus Bluray.

4. With HD DVD gone, expect retailers to step on the gas with their bluray campaigns and promotions. The B&M retailers see downloading as a threat to their business as well, especially Best Buy the largest seller of DVD's and Blurays. They will not allow themselves to be cut out of the pie by Microsoft, Apple, Comcast, or Warner cable.

5. Expect the studio to follow with retailers in pushing HDM over downloading with VERY aggressive educational campaigns. You are going to see very soon in the future plenty of material that will show the differences between what you get as a download, and what you get on disc. The studio I work for has had their educational compaign going for almost a year now. The studios are not about to give up on their worldwide $42 billion dollar business over something that only netted $123 million in 2007.

6. You are going to see more and more screenshot comparisons between downloading and HDM on disc. They are already around for DVD and bluray/HD DVD. Alot of hometheater enthusiasts are not thrilled with the prospects of having a lower resolution download overtake a higher resolution format as the major way of getting movies in their theaters. A trip to HTF, AVS and several other high profile A/V websites clearly shows this.

7. Analysist who actually follow and monitor the movie business have been telling studios that downloading is not ready for prime time, and will not be ready for years. At this point those who are looking for convience over quality, there will be enough out there for you to pull down. Those looking for quality and high performance will not support downloading as it is now. When you compare screenshots of Apple's little HD offerings with lowly DVD, most would agree the DVD comes out on top in both PQ and SQ.

8. The quality of downloads will have to catch up with Bluray before it will be accepted by those who actually drive the market(the folks with the most disposible income). While the online hometheater enthusiast is not representative of the common individual, the enthusiast is what gives the format legs. They would be the ones that would buy the files, and the servers that these files will rest in. If you cannot get a download to look like what they have seen already(1080p, 24fps for movies, 40mbps bitrate, lossless high bit audio, interactivity), then the chances of downloads taking off soon or quickly will be pretty much nil. Survey after survey sponsored by the movie studios has shown that it is the quality and performance folks that push technology, and the convience folks follow. This is why we are seeing such beautiful imagery from bluray, and why we are finally getting as close as the studio master in terms of audio that we have ever seen.

9. The very people that pushed the DVD format over VHS (35 y/o and older) are folks that are used to seeing physical objects after they spend their money. They bought vinyl records, cassette tapes, VHS tapes, DVD's and now Blurays. They have spent their lifetimes owning physical media. Many do not have a high comfort level with spending money for a digital file, over a physical disc. Those who are now 25 y/o and under have no problem with owning a file over a disc, even though the teenage crowd are major purchasers of DVD's. They are much more computer savvy, and will probably be the major pushers of downloading over the disc. When they become the major spenders for HDM, the disc will definately go bye bye. Nobody sees that happening for at least another 10-12 years.

10. While most homes in American have access to the internet, only 52% of homes in American have access to broadband. The rural areas of this country do not have broadband or DSL. They however can go to their local supermarket and get DVD's. Until America is fully wired with high speed internet(and not what speed we have right now) do not expect the Studios to abandon a $20 billion dollar business any time soon.

Lastly, the studios are deathly afraid of online movie proliferation and piracy. So any downloads that are, or will be available in the future will have all kinds of conditional DRM that limits the mobility of the file. Even now Apple downloads will allow you to export to Ipod, but not to any other computer in your house. You cannot get the file from your ipod to another computer. Rentals will have tight timelines, you will not have access forever. Digital sell throughs will allow for one computer to host the file, not multiple computers. The Digital file will probably self destruct if tampered with. I believe that if hackers are able to break any encyption on the file and proliferate it, the studio will find another more secure medium to release on. I do not believe the studio have the stomach to see their intellectual property traded freely all over the net like it has with the DVD. Especially not their HD offerings.

While it is crystal clear that downloading will eventually supplant B&M rentals, most analyst agree that Netflix and Blockbuster will do well far into the future because you can get quality with convience renting discs that are mail sent and returned. The internet infrastucture will have to by seriously upgraded to a much faster speed, with a lot fewer bottlenecks to handle the traffic, and by most estimates(which do not agree) it will be VERY expensive to do(which everyone agrees with). So the major question becomes, do I as a cable company increased my bandwidth, speed, and traffic flow at a major expense, and which gives my competitors a huge inroad into my system? Or do I spend my money on more HD programming to suit my own VOD needs and leave my internet infrastucture as is? Alot of folks think that downloading over bluray or any other disc media is a slam dunk. For music, this is probably true with their much smaller file sizes. But as you reduce the file size, quality suffers no matter what video encoder you use. So there is a limit to how much compression you can use without getting artifacts.

I believe, and I think that most folks that follow the industry I work in believe this as well. The DVD will be long gone before downloading is the primary delivery system. Bluray will be around for at least 10-12 years before downloading Digital files to own is a viable option. There has to be a sea of change on so many levels before downloading is the primary delivery system.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

And let's not forget DIVX v. DVD! :sleep:



Had plenty of discussion already on this topic. I used to believe the same thing, but then I look at how heavily the studios have locked down digital downloads -- basically relegating them to VOD/rental replacements. The home video market has transitioned into primarily a sell-through market -- the majority of revenue now comes from purchased content, not rentals or PPV or VOD.

So long as the studios continue to treat downloads as a heavily locked down exercise and make a huge chunk of titles available for rental only, this won't replace disc media. Right now, studios make a lot more from disc purchases than from rental revenue. Unless a business model can be developed that creates higher revenue potential from downloads, the studios will likely continue to stack the deck in favor of purchase media, whether that's DVD or Blu-ray.

In addition, in order to make the files feasible for a typical household, the file has to be heavily compressed and use the lowest resolution possible for 5.1 audio. MAnd even at borderline acceptable HD image quality, it won't take much to fill up a hard drive, which again limits the appeal of downloading for collectors.

Plus, there's the current reality of bandwidth limitations for most households (even with a 3.0 MB broadband service, it will still take well over an hour to download a minimal HD movie file -- i.e., 720p resolution and low bandwidth 5.1 audio), and the future reality of broadband providers imposing traffic throttling or bandwidth surcharges on video downloading and/or heavy internet usage.

With Blu-ray, you're talking about a 50 GB disc capacity, 1080p resolution, and lossless audio. No way that downloads can feasibly match that now or anytime soon. And all of the current HD download options currently on the market have a significant limitation of some kind that severely limit their appeal for your average technically challenged Joe6p.

I think the market will transition over to Blu-ray once hardware prices get to within striking distance of upconverting DVD players, and at the rate that hardware prices have declined since the format's introduction, that could happen by the end of the year. I doubt that people will repurchase their existing DVD collections in droves (and catalog titles are what drove the phenomenal growth of the DVD format until the most of the heavily demanded titles had already come out), but they will simply opt to buy a Blu-ray version in lieu of the DVD on the date of release for new titles.

Wow, we were within minutes of each other on this thought process. LOLOLOL. You have got to be my long lost twin(with some cultural considerations of course LOL)

[braxus]

Wow. This all happened faster then I was expecting. I have my HD DVD discs up for sale (all 2 of them) and I will get the Blu versions when they ever release them. I can't wait till Paramount makes the switch as they have some titles currently I want to get.

Now WHEN are they going to release a Blu Ray recorder for the North American market so I can finally record Hi Def video from cable or off my HD camera? They are only in Japan at this time. It seems the only option at the moment is the now defunct D-VHS format.

[filecat13]

Your posts were extensive, so I won't repost them here. Both make laubable points, but of course they're not without their counterpoints. No doubt you have characterized the situation accurately as it exists today. And you may be correct that there are enough boomers still in the pipeline to perpetuate whatever models the studios try to impose over the next decade.

However, here are some thoughts in no particular order.

I think you both underestimate the volatility of the post-boomer generations, which obviously the media corporations have done already. Studios struggling to make content less accessible to consumers is about as bass ackwards as it gets when trying to jump start a stagnating market.

The studios still haven't figured out the music war is over. They lost. In fact they never even launched a single offensive; it was retreat and pull back all the way. Their tools were the tools of defeat. From their keeps they announced, "If you want our product you must come in here and accept it on our terms." Surprisingly, many of our generation still do just that, but fewer of my kids' generation, and fewer still of my grandkids' generation. They just send in a spy and steal it, or, worse, they go elsewhere for content: direct to the artists, to music sharing sites, or to original content that bypasses the conglomerates completely.

Admittedly, video will be a tougher battle, because studios really do know they got hosed in the music wars. They can at least see the bottom line, if not the reality. Plus, video is much harder to create, more complex to package, difficult to upload and download, and as you've correctly pointed out heavily DRMed. So, it's a tougher nut to crack.

I'm an oddity in my generation, I suppose, since I've never had cable or satellite. To me, it's just another greedy company with its hand in my pocket. So I can't comment on signal quality, download speeds, etc. I'm certain you're correct with whatever representations you made there. I also acknowledge that cable or satellite is nearly ubiquitous, though it's safe to say that most subscribers are not ponying up for HD services anyway, just like most DVD purchasers aren't buying BD or HD DVD. I doubt that cable or satellite will ever become the HD delivery system of choice, both for reasons you have cited and for the fact that it's a business model that young consumers generally despise. It's certainly one I despise, and they'll never get a cent from me.

Given the glacial pace of improvement and the lightning speed of subscription increases in cable systems over the past 25 years, I wouldn't hold out any hope for any useful solutions there. I don't count it as a viable HD source.

However, I'm watching things unfold elsewhere with increasing rapidity. Not so many years ago, the major labels assumed the CD gravy train would roll on forever, or at least until they found a way to make you pay for the fourth or fifth time for content you already had. Well, our generation might be gullible enough to do that, but succeeding generations are not. Perhaps this is as you say our need to "own" something physical.

Media conglomerates and retailers can put the pedal to the metal all day long, but it's tough to upsell consumers in a recession or near-recession. I doubt that consumers are going to spend their $600 rebates on HD players and media, though a few might. I suspect most will spend down debt or purchase more immediate needs.

Naturally I would not expect the studios to abandon a $20 billion business. In fact their stock in trade is to remain fully entrenched in models.

I would be surprised, shocked, and disappointed if the pace of innovation slackened to the point where it would be 10-12 years before any meaningful change to the current model takes place. I recognize that you gents will be at least surprised and shocked if the model is turned on its head in 3-5 years. So having read your thoughtful posts and acknowledging the content thereof, I still will adhere to my position. That crow will be all dried and tough in five years when (if) I have to eat it. :wink5:

[filecat13]

Here's a nice, concise timetable of HD DVD's demise, including the notice of Toshiba's official abdication in Japan.

http://www.realtechnews.com/posts/5406

[diggity]

oh well i was wrong. i'll admit it!! hd-dvd is closing doors very fast. man, blink and you will miss it eh? now where is that humble pie? i have got some eatin' to do lol

cheers: dazza

[Woochifer]

I think you both underestimate the volatility of the post-boomer generations, which obviously the media corporations have done already. Studios struggling to make content less accessible to consumers is about as bass ackwards as it gets when trying to jump start a stagnating market.

The studios still haven't figured out the music war is over. They lost. In fact they never even launched a single offensive; it was retreat and pull back all the way. Their tools were the tools of defeat. From their keeps they announced, "If you want our product you must come in here and accept it on our terms." Surprisingly, many of our generation still do just that, but fewer of my kids' generation, and fewer still of my grandkids' generation. They just send in a spy and steal it, or, worse, they go elsewhere for content: direct to the artists, to music sharing sites, or to original content that bypasses the conglomerates completely.

The music and video markets are by their fundamental nature different, so the issues with the music industry are not really applicable. With music, there has been an ongoing trend towards portability since the dawn of console radios and record players, and music listening is largely a background activity -- something we have on while doing something else. The consumer format and purchasing preferences have consistently confirmed this.

Even during the LP heyday, the majority of record players sold were portable or easily transportable. Today's domination of the market by the iPod and other MP3 media players is nothing more than the latest step in a long progression towards portability that along the way has included portable record changers, cassette players, boom boxes, in-dash car audio systems, Walkmans, portable CD players. Since recordable media first became available, consumers have always wanted the freedom to create their own music playlists, and the record companies have always resisted (as evidenced by the various lawsuits over royalty payments from blank tape and disc media sales).

Video on the other hand is seeing the general trends moving towards larger and larger screen sizes, which is the opposite of the miniaturization and portability that's in demand on the audio side. Big screen TVs are not portable, and TV viewing is more of a passive activity that demands fuller attention than most music listening. Media playing is now an option with computers, but the form factor on computers is not condusive to how people prefer to watch TV -- lounging on a sofa or easy chair with a remote in hand.

Getting downloaded content to that living room TV has been the challenge, and thus far, I haven't seen any approaches that a typical Joe6p can easily relate to. As Terrence mentioned, this is a generational roadblock that will go away in due time. Just about anyone that can setup a DVD player, can setup a Blu-ray player. Can't say the same thing about setting up an HD download file player.


I'm an oddity in my generation, I suppose, since I've never had cable or satellite. To me, it's just another greedy company with its hand in my pocket. So I can't comment on signal quality, download speeds, etc. I'm certain you're correct with whatever representations you made there. I also acknowledge that cable or satellite is nearly ubiquitous, though it's safe to say that most subscribers are not ponying up for HD services anyway, just like most DVD purchasers aren't buying BD or HD DVD.

Well, there's also a supply component to consider. Most cable and satellite subscribers up to this point have not subscribed to HD services, because aside from the major broadcast networks, premium cable channels, and a select few basic cable/satellite channels (like ESPN and Discovery), the offerings have been few and far between. Only within the past year have most of the major basic cable/satellite channels even announced that they would start offering HD feeds. Only within the past year has HDTV adoption reached approximately 1/3 of all households. Only within the past three years have the majority of TV stations begun broadcasting in digital (and even there the majority of content is not in HD resolution).

As more and more households buy HDTVs, the demand for HD services will increase. And for existing HDTV owners, the move to HD services will increase as more and more channels go HD and more programming gets produced in HD.

And I think it's inevitable that a significant chunk of the market will transition over to Blu-ray. The only question is whether that market share will be enough to supplant the DVD format. Households that have transitioned their TV, and their cable/satellite service or terrestrial TV viewing over to HD, are going to see a glaring downgrade when they pop in a DVD and see how a 480p image fares by comparison. With the market now rapidly moving towards screen sizes of 50" or larger, the deficiencies with 480p will be readily apparent. And as Blu-ray player prices drop to within reasonable range of upconverting DVD player prices, I think people will simply buy Blu-ray players rather than DVD players in the near future. At that point, I think people buying new releases will just pick up the Blu-ray version instead of the DVD version.


I doubt that cable or satellite will ever become the HD delivery system of choice, both for reasons you have cited and for the fact that it's a business model that young consumers generally despise. It's certainly one I despise, and they'll never get a cent from me.

Actually, cable and satellite have already BEEN the HD delivery system of choice for the vast majority of HD viewing, simply because up until the introduction of HD-DVD less than two years ago, cable and satellite (and OTA broadcasting) accounted for nearly all of available HD content and still account for the majority of HD viewing. Your antipathy towards cable an satellite companies is not in the majority of the market, and it's that part of the market that drives what happens in the industry at large. Also, I don't see how you would conclude that "young consumers generally despise" cable and satellite when their typical TV viewing includes a higher proportion of basic cable/satellite channels compared to OTA-broadcast channels. Younger households subscribe to cable and satellite services in greater numbers than older households. Attitude and griping over the cable or satellite company doesn't mean a thing until someone translates that antipathy into action.


Given the glacial pace of improvement and the lightning speed of subscription increases in cable systems over the past 25 years, I wouldn't hold out any hope for any useful solutions there. I don't count it as a viable HD source.

I think the competition has actually fueled tremendous changes over the past decade. Right now, the majority of cable systems have upgraded their networks to include digital service, and most of them now bundle broadband internet and phone services into their packages. Cable is competing with satellite and the phone companies. If they don't adapt their services to match what those competitors offer up, then they will lose even more subscribers than they already have.

Cable companies were actually the first out the gate with on-demand programming, and up until late last year, most cable companies actually had a much larger variety of HD programming than satellite companies.


Naturally I would not expect the studios to abandon a $20 billion business. In fact their stock in trade is to remain fully entrenched in models.

I would be surprised, shocked, and disappointed if the pace of innovation slackened to the point where it would be 10-12 years before any meaningful change to the current model takes place. I recognize that you gents will be at least surprised and shocked if the model is turned on its head in 3-5 years. So having read your thoughtful posts and acknowledging the content thereof, I still will adhere to my position. That crow will be all dried and tough in five years when (if) I have to eat it. :wink5:

I doubt that it will happen in 3-5 years. This isn't like music files that require a few minutes to download an entire album. A movie file can take well over an hour to download and can't match the video quality of a HD broadcast or Blu-ray disc. People want instant gratification, and HD movie files for most consumers don't meet that criteria. Consumers are now in the habit of collecting movies, and downloads are problematic towards that end because the files are typically locked into a single device, and it doesn't take a lot of movies to fill up a hard drive.

The movie studios will always find the business model that maximizes revenue. They've proven more adaptable than the record companies. They dumped the VHS-era rental-pricing model when they found that they could make a lot more money by selling $20 DVDs to consumers than $80 VHS tapes to video stores for rental. If video downloading can demonstrate a revenue potential greater than with sell-through disc media, then you can bet that they will embrace it. But, up to this point, downloads have merely siphoned market share away from other types of PPV and VOD options.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

The music and video markets are by their fundamental nature different, so the issues with the music industry are not really applicable. With music, there has been an ongoing trend towards portability since the dawn of console radios and record players, and music listening is largely a background activity -- something we have on while doing something else. The consumer format and purchasing preferences have consistently confirmed this.

Even during the LP heyday, the majority of record players sold were portable or easily transportable. Today's domination of the market by the iPod and other MP3 media players is nothing more than the latest step in a long progression towards portability that along the way has included portable record changers, cassette players, boom boxes, in-dash car audio systems, Walkmans, portable CD players. Since recordable media first became available, consumers have always wanted the freedom to create their own music playlists, and the record companies have always resisted (as evidenced by the various lawsuits over royalty payments from blank tape and disc media sales).

Video on the other hand is seeing the general trends moving towards larger and larger screen sizes, which is the opposite of the miniaturization and portability that's in demand on the audio side. Big screen TVs are not portable, and TV viewing is more of a passive activity that demands fuller attention than most music listening. Media playing is now an option with computers, but the form factor on computers is not condusive to how people prefer to watch TV -- lounging on a sofa or easy chair with a remote in hand.

Getting downloaded content to that living room TV has been the challenge, and thus far, I haven't seen any approaches that a typical Joe6p can easily relate to. As Terrence mentioned, this is a generational roadblock that will go away in due time. Just about anyone that can setup a DVD player, can setup a Blu-ray player. Can't say the same thing about setting up an HD download file player.



Well, there's also a supply component to consider. Most cable and satellite subscribers up to this point have not subscribed to HD services, because aside from the major broadcast networks, premium cable channels, and a select few basic cable/satellite channels (like ESPN and Discovery), the offerings have been few and far between. Only within the past year have most of the major basic cable/satellite channels even announced that they would start offering HD feeds. Only within the past year has HDTV adoption reached approximately 1/3 of all households. Only within the past three years have the majority of TV stations begun broadcasting in digital (and even there the majority of content is not in HD resolution).

As more and more households buy HDTVs, the demand for HD services will increase. And for existing HDTV owners, the move to HD services will increase as more and more channels go HD and more programming gets produced in HD.

And I think it's inevitable that a significant chunk of the market will transition over to Blu-ray. The only question is whether that market share will be enough to supplant the DVD format. Households that have transitioned their TV, and their cable/satellite service or terrestrial TV viewing over to HD, are going to see a glaring downgrade when they pop in a DVD and see how a 480p image fares by comparison. With the market now rapidly moving towards screen sizes of 50" or larger, the deficiencies with 480p will be readily apparent. And as Blu-ray player prices drop to within reasonable range of upconverting DVD player prices, I think people will simply buy Blu-ray players rather than DVD players in the near future. At that point, I think people buying new releases will just pick up the Blu-ray version instead of the DVD version.



Actually, cable and satellite have already BEEN the HD delivery system of choice for the vast majority of HD viewing, simply because up until the introduction of HD-DVD less than two years ago, cable and satellite (and OTA broadcasting) accounted for nearly all of available HD content and still account for the majority of HD viewing. Your antipathy towards cable an satellite companies is not in the majority of the market, and it's that part of the market that drives what happens in the industry at large. Also, I don't see how you would conclude that "young consumers generally despise" cable and satellite when their typical TV viewing includes a higher proportion of basic cable/satellite channels compared to OTA-broadcast channels. Younger households subscribe to cable and satellite services in greater numbers than older households. Attitude and griping over the cable or satellite company doesn't mean a thing until someone translates that antipathy into action.



I think the competition has actually fueled tremendous changes over the past decade. Right now, the majority of cable systems have upgraded their networks to include digital service, and most of them now bundle broadband internet and phone services into their packages. Cable is competing with satellite and the phone companies. If they don't adapt their services to match what those competitors offer up, then they will lose even more subscribers than they already have.

Cable companies were actually the first out the gate with on-demand programming, and up until late last year, most cable companies actually had a much larger variety of HD programming than satellite companies.



I doubt that it will happen in 3-5 years. This isn't like music files that require a few minutes to download an entire album. A movie file can take well over an hour to download and can't match the video quality of a HD broadcast or Blu-ray disc. People want instant gratification, and HD movie files for most consumers don't meet that criteria. Consumers are now in the habit of collecting movies, and downloads are problematic towards that end because the files are typically locked into a single device, and it doesn't take a lot of movies to fill up a hard drive.

The movie studios will always find the business model that maximizes revenue. They've proven more adaptable than the record companies. They dumped the VHS-era rental-pricing model when they found that they could make a lot more money by selling $20 DVDs to consumers than $80 VHS tapes to video stores for rental. If video downloading can demonstrate a revenue potential greater than with sell-through disc media, then you can bet that they will embrace it. But, up to this point, downloads have merely siphoned market share away from other types of PPV and VOD options.

I am glad I didn't post my response to filecat. It would have looked like a continous echo to yours. We are definately of the same mind, and its been that way for quite a few years. Its just too funny, we were almost word for word in both responses.

[filecat13]

Yes, it would have felt like piling on. I appreciate the civility of both your responses.

If you both prove to be correct in five years, I'll Paypal you each the contemporary equivalent of a fine beer, assuming we're all around to enjoy it, of course. This offer does not accrue to your estates. :21:

[pixelthis]

This fool is the biggest bull$hit artist on this site.



I guess you knew more the Ken Graffeo and Sally Jodi? You are full of it. They have not been planning this a while. They had no idea that Warner was going to make the announcement they did. If they did, do you really think the DVD forum would have approved the next to final version of the TL-51 disc white paper? Why pay Universal an additional $75 million to support the product until the fall? At the last DVD forum meeting, both Graffeo and Jodi were giddy as school girls at the passing of TL-51, if they had been planning an exit, why all the joy? Did you really think they knew about Walmart? I do not think so, because I know for a fact the decision was a last minute decision, and the BDA didn't know about it until about 24 hours before the announcement. If they knew this for a long time, why did Ventura release a player at the end of last year? Seems to me they could have quit production immediately and would not have to fire sale their players like Toshiba is doing. That could not have been good for their bottom line. This is hogwash, bullocks, bull, they have not been planning this a while. This is just a plain old lie from somebody who is a nobody trying to be somebody.



The lesson was out there for Toshiba to learn. Sony and Betamax should have taught them something. However, I would not be so quick to blame toshiba for all of this. Microsoft played a huge role in getting Toshiba to market HD DVD. Microsoft was the one that encouraged Toshiba to release HD DVD when Toshiba was about to throw in the towel before HD DVD official release. Toshiba saw the handwriting on the wall when members of the BDA who were also members of the DVD forum where constantly obstaining from voting on HD DVD. However it was Microsoft that encourage them to stay in it, and promised them they would support them to the end. When Toshiba went to negotiate with Warner, Microsoft was no were to be found.

I think before you make these off the cuff statements, you need to do ALOT more homework. The music business is not the movie business. Player manufacturers do not make software. Studios do not make players(not even Sony Home Entertainment). You have a penchant for doing alot of mixing and mashing so your pea brain can process the complexity. It may be good for your convience, but it is not accurate or truthful.


Someone needs to get the baby some pampers, he's gettin cranky again.
I sure hope to god you are a fake and not the industry shill you claim to be,
because your dumbassery is matched only by your naivette.
Companies have several paths they set up. In this case its obivous they have been planning an exit strategy for some time.
But you betray that exit strategey and destroy confidence in the troops if you let on, so you have to put a bold face to the world.
Every loser in a war has been talking about victory the day before surrender.
True the HD camp has been making some effort, but nothing MAJOR.
And the fact that walmart pulled the rug out so swiftly means that they aren't really paying attention, they are just trying to get out of this debacle with some face left.
As for Microsofts role, tosh didnt go into this on the urging of someone else, they almost started a format war over DVD, doesn't ANYBODY remember even recent history?
Unlike you I give the tosh beancounters some credit, and only a ninny couldn't see this coming.
BTW I don't post during teh day because unlike most of the nimrods on this board, I do have a LIFE:1:

[pixelthis]

And let's not forget DIVX v. DVD! :sleep:



Had plenty of discussion already on this topic. I used to believe the same thing, but then I look at how heavily the studios have locked down digital downloads -- basically relegating them to VOD/rental replacements. The home video market has transitioned into primarily a sell-through market -- the majority of revenue now comes from purchased content, not rentals or PPV or VOD.

So long as the studios continue to treat downloads as a heavily locked down exercise and make a huge chunk of titles available for rental only, this won't replace disc media. Right now, studios make a lot more from disc purchases than from rental revenue. Unless a business model can be developed that creates higher revenue potential from downloads, the studios will likely continue to stack the deck in favor of purchase media, whether that's DVD or Blu-ray.

In addition, in order to make the files feasible for a typical household, the file has to be heavily compressed and use the lowest resolution possible for 5.1 audio. MAnd even at borderline acceptable HD image quality, it won't take much to fill up a hard drive, which again limits the appeal of downloading for collectors.

Plus, there's the current reality of bandwidth limitations for most households (even with a 3.0 MB broadband service, it will still take well over an hour to download a minimal HD movie file -- i.e., 720p resolution and low bandwidth 5.1 audio), and the future reality of broadband providers imposing traffic throttling or bandwidth surcharges on video downloading and/or heavy internet usage.

With Blu-ray, you're talking about a 50 GB disc capacity, 1080p resolution, and lossless audio. No way that downloads can feasibly match that now or anytime soon. And all of the current HD download options currently on the market have a significant limitation of some kind that severely limit their appeal for your average technically challenged Joe6p.

I think the market will transition over to Blu-ray once hardware prices get to within striking distance of upconverting DVD players, and at the rate that hardware prices have declined since the format's introduction, that could happen by the end of the year. I doubt that people will repurchase their existing DVD collections in droves (and catalog titles are what drove the phenomenal growth of the DVD format until the most of the heavily demanded titles had already come out), but they will simply opt to buy a Blu-ray version in lieu of the DVD on the date of release for new titles.

The net isnt going to be the main source of "downloading", VOD is.
I can buy a movie (some are free) and watch it like any other show, I can pause, ff, etc,
anytime in a 24hr period.
I don't see why people have trouble understanding this.
Already its very popular here in town.
Net downloading is still aways off, but who needs it with a hugh pipe called fiber optic?
Sir talky will tell you that these new systems are obsolete out of the box(guess thats why they spent several hundred mill on each one) but truth is that the space devoted to cablemodem is the space between ch 3 and 4!
In other words theres a hugh amount of capacity available.
Its not downloading mpeg4 off the net but it is HD and DD mostly, fine for casual rental:1:

[diggity]

The net isnt going to be the main source of "downloading", VOD is.
I can buy a movie (some are free) and watch it like any other show, I can pause, ff, etc,
anytime in a 24hr period.
I don't see why people have trouble understanding this.
Already its very popular here in town.
Net downloading is still aways off, but who needs it with a hugh pipe called fiber optic?
Sir talky will tell you that these new systems are obsolete out of the box(guess thats why they spent several hundred mill on each one) but truth is that the space devoted to cablemodem is the space between ch 3 and 4!
In other words theres a hugh amount of capacity available.
Its not downloading mpeg4 off the net but it is HD and DD mostly, fine for casual rental:1:

the only thing that worries me with downloads is the downloads... if that makes sense.
i shall elaborate. this may annoy you all but movies aren't made just for the benefit of americans, but the WHOLE world. for example, here in australia we haven't yet got to the standard of networking you have got there. much of our cabling is copper based and only major cities have optical even then only some suburbs. outback areas are literally just beginning to get off dial up 56k. we have only 5 free to air channels and still running analogue tv stations. we are in our fourth year of digital tv (still only 5 channels) and third year of hd tv channels, which is only 18-25 hours per week in 1080i, lucky to be 3 hours per week in 1080p. this is even before mentioning african and eastern bloc countries.

what i am saying is that for a technology to have any chance of succeeding it has to be accsessible to the majority of the viewing public with a relatively level playing field. something which solid media is and inernet/VOD isn't. go to 98% of houses anywhere in the world and you will see a dvd player, but how many will have top notch broadband for fast downloads of movies, a pc with a decent video card caopable of producing decent pic quality, or even a tv with a pc input? movie studios and manufacturing companies wont start contemplating d/oads VOD mass production until they are sure everyone has an even playing feild, not just usa veiwing public.

cheers: dazza

ps i am not trying to insult anyone who is american in this post. but i am trying to imply that although it may seem easy over there, not every country or person finds it this way. beleive it or not there are seven continents on this planet not just one and entertainment has to be available to all of them. no harm intended

[drseid]

I certainly do not believe for a second that Toshiba "knew all along" that HD DVD would lose the war and were developing exit strategies from the beginning while continuing to throw money at the format and its partners/former partners...

I *do* believe that almost immediately after the Warner decision happened despite Toshiba's public statements to the contrary, they had to know it was over for the format. I would not be surprised if they developed (or chose) an exit strategy about then. They may have had a rough plan in the background before that "just in case"... but after the Warner decision, I would think "just in case" became "now is the time."

The news of Toshiba's exit (now corraborated by many additional reliable sources) should not come as a surprise to anyone, IMO. Little availability of software coupled with no major rental outlets (after the Netflix move) and lack of retailer support equals the format becoming a major liability.

Too bad the format failed as I really felt it was the superior one, but I think HD DVD's main backer finally has decided the phoney hype of staying in the race the long haul, knowing they will not win or cause a long-term stalemate was not worth it to them financially or reputation-wise. I think Toshiba is making the right move for themselves and the industry at this point.

---Dave

[kexodusc]

I certainly do not believe for a second that Toshiba "knew all along" that HD DVD would lose the war and were developing exit strategies from the beginning while continuing to throw money at the format and its partners/former partners...

As crazy as it sounds, I can believe it. This isn't my industry at all, but the few financial analysts I've spoken with about this format war suggest, as has been said many times here and other web forums, that the decision to launch HD-DVD had more to do with delaying the transition from DVD to the new HD format than an honest attempt to win the HD war. In other words, Toshiba felt they would earn enough additional revenue from DVD license royalties attributable to DVD remaining dominant for 2 or 3 additional years to cover justify the development cost and marketing/loss leading efforts of HD-DVD.

The same people tell me Toshiba stands to gain more from selling hardware, (not necessarily finished electronics products, but the chips/processors, manufacturing facilities, etc) than their share of the royalty pie for DVD or HD-DVD as well, which is afterall one of their core business activities. Which means they've probably got BluRay players in development and will be happy to make money off them.

It becomes even more believable if we flashback 2-3 years ago when Sony and Toshiba were pressured by the industry to arrive at a universal format solution. At the time, BluRay "appeared" to be the superior format for no other reason than storage space and studio support. Toshiba could have ended this whole thing then and likely have saved a lot of money not supporting a doomed format that never held the lead over BluRay once it was launched. Instead they chose to fight the good fight. They had to know it would be years before HD-DVD could break even, especially if a drawn out format war emerged. But did the extended-life of th DVD cash cow make it all worthwhile? This makes a lot more sense than charging ahead with developing a movie format that didn't have the majority of movie-studio support from the start. Back then, one would think a disadvantaged format would be happy to compromise and minimize losses - turn a bad situation into a guaranteed positive. But unlike Sony, the decision to support a universal format didn't solely rely on the predicted fortunes of HD-DVD. Once they factored in the impact of the DVD franchise, maybe it made more sense to keep DVD on top as long as possible.

Maybe HD-DVD was nothing more than a part of DVD's exit strategy.

Don't get me wrong - I think they'd have been thrilled to win it all and fought hard for it, but was it only a secondary goal? The BluRay/HD-DVD license value was never going to be as lucrative as DVD's, so there was less incentive to win it. Maybe Wooch or some people here can provide some figures on how much license fees are worth. At one time they were charging each DVD player 3-4% licensing fees, but I think that's since been reduced to absolute US dollar amounts...and each disc manufactured fetches a few pennies as well - that all adds up when billions of these things are flying out of factoreis.

I've tried dissecting the annual reports to find the perceived value of the DVD license, but it's not disclosed that way, and googling tends to only yield 6 or 7 year old figures. So I could very well be wrong here, but it has a certain believabiltiy to it.

At the end of the day, I think Toshiba will still make more money focusing on hardware, selling BluRay players and DVD players than the license royalties would mean to them.

All this to say, HD-DVD, despite losing the format war, might very well have been big success from Toshiba's point of view.



Too bad the format failed as I really felt it was the superior one, but I think HD DVD's main backer finally has decided the phoney hype of staying in the race the long haul, knowing they will not win or cause a long-term stalemate was not worth it to them financially or reputation-wise. I think Toshiba is making the right move for themselves and the industry at this point.


Most analysts would agree with you here. Dropping a dying format is a really quick way to improve your earnings expectations. :)

[GMichael]

When do all the sales on HD-DVD's begin?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

As crazy as it sounds, I can believe it. This isn't my industry at all, but the few financial analysts I've spoken with about this format war suggest, as has been said many times here and other web forums, that the decision to launch HD-DVD had more to do with delaying the transition from DVD to the new HD format than an honest attempt to win the HD war. In other words, Toshiba felt they would earn enough additional revenue from DVD license royalties attributable to DVD remaining dominant for 2 or 3 additional years to cover justify the development cost and marketing/loss leading efforts of HD-DVD.

There is some truth to this, but because the HD DVD format was born within the DVD forum, all liscensees stood to benefit, including Sony to a much lesser degree. Pioneer get major royalities from DVD, but they also got major royalties from Bluray, much more. HD DVD by the DVD forums standard would have been the sucessor to DVD.


The same people tell me Toshiba stands to gain more from selling hardware, (not necessarily finished electronics products, but the chips/processors, manufacturing facilities, etc) than their share of the royalty pie for DVD or HD-DVD as well, which is afterall one of their core business activities. Which means they've probably got BluRay players in development and will be happy to make money off them.

This is only true if the price of chips stay profitable. Lately they have not been so profitable for them, hence why they cannot continue to support losses in their HD DVD side.


It becomes even more believable if we flashback 2-3 years ago when Sony and Toshiba were pressured by the industry to arrive at a universal format solution. At the time, BluRay "appeared" to be the superior format for no other reason than storage space and studio support. Toshiba could have ended this whole thing then and likely have saved a lot of money not supporting a doomed format that never held the lead over BluRay once it was launched. Instead they chose to fight the good fight. They had to know it would be years before HD-DVD could break even, especially if a drawn out format war emerged. But did the extended-life of th DVD cash cow make it all worthwhile? This makes a lot more sense than charging ahead with developing a movie format that didn't have the majority of movie-studio support from the start. Back then, one would think a disadvantaged format would be happy to compromise and minimize losses - turn a bad situation into a guaranteed positive. But unlike Sony, the decision to support a universal format didn't solely rely on the predicted fortunes of HD-DVD. Once they factored in the impact of the DVD franchise, maybe it made more sense to keep DVD on top as long as possible.

Toshiba can thank Microsoft by spitting in their face. Toshiba was ready to dump HD DVD before it released when they realized that the BDA had amassed a far larger support structure than they did. It was microsoft that encourage them to stay and fight, and I believe it was done to slow the PS3 down. If the PS3 had been released with a bluray drive unchallenge, Microsoft knew it would mean trouble for the XBOX franchise. Toshiba should be furious with Microsoft. Toshiba sent a rep out to Hollywood three times trying to court Warner, and a bluray exclusive studio Fox to make the switch. Microsoft refused to be in on the negotiations when Toshiba asked them to. I am not sure if Microsofts absence is what prevented the deal from being sealed, or the fact that Bluray was outselling HD DVD in both players and disc, but Fox refused to bite(they had asked for BD+ on HD DVD within the DVD forum, and it was refused) and then Warner backed away. One of the conditions that Warner set on Toshiba was to get another Bluray exclusive studio to support HD DVD or the format war would not be over. Warner wanted this over because they have the biggest stake in the disc market(and the largest film library as well), and their profits were plunging from the DVD. Without Warner, it was essentially curtains for the HD DVD format.


Maybe HD-DVD was nothing more than a part of DVD's exit strategy.

You are correct.


Don't get me wrong - I think they'd have been thrilled to win it all and fought hard for it, but was it only a secondary goal? The BluRay/HD-DVD license value was never going to be as lucrative as DVD's, so there was less incentive to win it. Maybe Wooch or some people here can provide some figures on how much license fees are worth. At one time they were charging each DVD player 3-4% licensing fees, but I think that's since been reduced to absolute US dollar amounts...and each disc manufactured fetches a few pennies as well - that all adds up when billions of these things are flying out of factoreis.

Actually Bluray liscenses are more lucrative than both DVD and to a lesser degree HD DVD because they are not sifted in value like DVD are. After the chinese manufacturers got into the game, the value of DVD royalites began to plunge, hence why HD DVD was so important to Toshiba. No manufacturer was making money off DVD players, the Chinese made sure of that. Disc profits were also plunging as the disc prices began to fall. Everyone NEEDED another format to lift profits on both sides of the equation.


I've tried dissecting the annual reports to find the perceived value of the DVD license, but it's not disclosed that way, and googling tends to only yield 6 or 7 year old figures. So I could very well be wrong here, but it has a certain believabiltiy to it.

You are closer than you think.


At the end of the day, I think Toshiba will still make more money focusing on hardware, selling BluRay players and DVD players than the license royalties would mean to them.

Had they not started the cost cutting from the beginning, they would have made off like a bandit with both royalites on disc and players, and make a profit on its own players as well. However, I think that Toshiba has so sullied its name amoung the Japanese CE community, I think they are going to make it very hard for Toshiba. And I mean VERY hard. One of the bluray insiders out of Japan says that most all of the CE companies in Japan are furious at Toshiba for de-valuing HDM on disc, and making it hard for them to recoup R&D because of Toshiba steep price cuts right out of the gate.


All this to say, HD-DVD, despite losing the format war, might very well have been big success from Toshiba's point of view.

I do not think so. Their investor had been telling them for month to walk away from HD DVD because of the losses. As of the end of last year, Toshiba had lost $450 million dollars supporting HD DVD. Since their chip manufacturing had been doing okay, these losses were pretty easy to absorb, but when losses in the chip side started happening, the losses on HD DVD look ominous.



Most analysts would agree with you here. Dropping a dying format is a really quick way to improve your earnings expectations. :)

It will take a while to sift through the ruins though. Toshiba is going to have to figure out what to do with all of the unsold and returned stock the retailers cannot unload. Amazon apparently has more returned players than new players sitting in their warehouses. That is going back to Toshiba. When they write down all of the losses then they will have a better idea of where to go next.

[L.J.]

When do all the sales on HD-DVD's begin?

http://www.deepdiscount.com/viewcategory.htm?categoryId=476505&sortby=price&count=#listtop :cornut:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Someone needs to get the baby some pampers, he's gettin cranky again.
I sure hope to god you are a fake and not the industry shill you claim to be,
because your dumbassery is matched only by your naivette.
Companies have several paths they set up. In this case its obivous they have been planning an exit strategy for some time.
But you betray that exit strategey and destroy confidence in the troops if you let on, so you have to put a bold face to the world.
Every loser in a war has been talking about victory the day before surrender.
True the HD camp has been making some effort, but nothing MAJOR.
And the fact that walmart pulled the rug out so swiftly means that they aren't really paying attention, they are just trying to get out of this debacle with some face left.
As for Microsofts role, tosh didnt go into this on the urging of someone else, they almost started a format war over DVD, doesn't ANYBODY remember even recent history?
Unlike you I give the tosh beancounters some credit, and only a ninny couldn't see this coming.
BTW I don't post during teh day because unlike most of the nimrods on this board, I do have a LIFE:1:

Pix, there is no need to respond to this. Everyone here knows that you are perhaps the dumbest old man on this board. We all know that you do not know your a$$ from your head, so there is no need to respond any further to your bull$hit.

[Rich-n-Texas]

http://www.deepdiscount.com/viewcategory.htm?categoryId=476505&sortby=price&count=#listtop :cornut:
I love how, at the top of the page they say: "Start Building your HD-DVD collection with these great titles on sale!"

John Q. Public is such a dumba$$ ya know? :rolleyes:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I certainly do not believe for a second that Toshiba "knew all along" that HD DVD would lose the war and were developing exit strategies from the beginning while continuing to throw money at the format and its partners/former partners...

They didn't know, Pixelbrain does not know what he is talking about. He never does.


I *do* believe that almost immediately after the Warner decision happened despite Toshiba's public statements to the contrary, they had to know it was over for the format. I would not be surprised if they developed (or chose) an exit strategy about then. They may have had a rough plan in the background before that "just in case"... but after the Warner decision, I would think "just in case" became "now is the time."

You know, they didn't believe it was over until after the netflix/Walmart announcement. They believed that if they got enough players out in the market, the studios would change their mind unwilling to let this huge player base go unanswered. That is why they continued to cut the price, to get more players in the market to sway the studios. It didn't work, and it was a gamble that cost them a bundle.


The news of Toshiba's exit (now corraborated by many additional reliable sources) should not come as a surprise to anyone, IMO. Little availability of software coupled with no major rental outlets (after the Netflix move) and lack of retailer support equals the format becoming a major liability.

The lack of QUALITY releases both technically and content wise was killing them way before any of the latest announcement. They were quite simply out matched and out witted by the BDA as evidenced by the Transformers week where bluray had no releases in the week of Transformers release, and still beat HD DVD in disc sales that week.


Too bad the format failed as I really felt it was the superior one, but I think HD DVD's main backer finally has decided the phoney hype of staying in the race the long haul, knowing they will not win or cause a long-term stalemate was not worth it to them financially or reputation-wise. I think Toshiba is making the right move for themselves and the industry at this point.

---Dave

Dave, it is VERY open for debate whether as to HD DVD being superior. In many ways it was not. While it had well supported interactive features and PIP, bandwidth made it difficult to deploy all of this on a single disc along with DTHD. Transformers, Shrek, and King Kong are prime examples of this. All of these titles should have had DTHD tracks on them, but lack of disc space and bandwidth made it impossible. Secondly, the quality control on ALL HD DVD was seriously lacking. You had some folks with no problems, others with so many problems it was unbelieveable. I have had THREE HD DVD players, all coming in with various playback problems. The A1 after numorous firmware upgrades became the most stable player out of the bunch. The XA-2 could not be used in the 1080p 24fps mode because of lip sync issues that have not been addressed yet. The A-35 I got for Christmas has still yet to make it through a single HD DVD, but it plays DVD's beautifully. My PS3 has yet to have a single hiccup with any of my blurays. The bluray format has used just about every video codec out there, HD DVD basically just one, they are were too plugged in with microsoft products(VC-1 and HDi). Lossless audio makes up about 2/3 of all bluray releases, and HD DVD had it on a little less than a third of its titles. HD DVD has proven you cannot sell a format based on interactivity. More people(at least the early adopter) wanted the best PQ and SQ, not superior interactive experience.

Toshiba killed itself, and has nobody to blame but itself. They new they were outsupported and out gunned, and they allowed Microsoft to talk them into getting into this fray in the first place. A foolish move indeed.

[pixelthis]

Pix, there is no need to respond to this. Everyone here knows that you are perhaps the dumbest old man on this board. We all know that you do not know your a$$ from your head, so there is no need to respond any further to your bull$hit.


In other words I am right.:prrr:
unlike Kex, I dont beleive they were certain until probably sept of last year, certainly
after christmas.
Sure they sold players and you need players out there, but if the other sides software
is selling better then thats a sure sign that the public is going their way.
Anyway they probably saw little downside of trying a format war, never stopping to think of the damage they would do to the future market for HD on disc caused by the confusion sown by a format war.
I do know one thing, if they havent had an exit strategy from the start they are as stupid
as a certain sir talky.
AND IF THEY HAVENT IMPLEMENTED IT BY NOW...
Then they don't deserve to be running a taco stand, much less a major corp:1:

[pixelthis]

the only thing that worries me with downloads is the downloads... if that makes sense.
i shall elaborate. this may annoy you all but movies aren't made just for the benefit of americans, but the WHOLE world. for example, here in australia we haven't yet got to the standard of networking you have got there. much of our cabling is copper based and only major cities have optical even then only some suburbs. outback areas are literally just beginning to get off dial up 56k. we have only 5 free to air channels and still running analogue tv stations. we are in our fourth year of digital tv (still only 5 channels) and third year of hd tv channels, which is only 18-25 hours per week in 1080i, lucky to be 3 hours per week in 1080p. this is even before mentioning african and eastern bloc countries.

what i am saying is that for a technology to have any chance of succeeding it has to be accsessible to the majority of the viewing public with a relatively level playing field. something which solid media is and inernet/VOD isn't. go to 98% of houses anywhere in the world and you will see a dvd player, but how many will have top notch broadband for fast downloads of movies, a pc with a decent video card caopable of producing decent pic quality, or even a tv with a pc input? movie studios and manufacturing companies wont start contemplating d/oads VOD mass production until they are sure everyone has an even playing feild, not just usa veiwing public.

cheers: dazza

ps i am not trying to insult anyone who is american in this post. but i am trying to imply that although it may seem easy over there, not every country or person finds it this way. beleive it or not there are seven continents on this planet not just one and entertainment has to be available to all of them. no harm intended

of course not.
Sorry if this disscusion is a bit Amero-centric but we Americans tend to be a bit self centered.
Truth is if I lived in such a beautiful country as Aussieland I probably wouldn't watch as much TV, and I am not kissin your butt, my neice went there on a field trip and loved the place.
But you guys are in even a better place than we yanks probably.
We have a ton of infrastructure that needs replacing, you guys can start from scratch.
AND BEING AS CLOSE as you are to the "future" (asia) its probably going to be cheaper.
and there is a certain charm to being a little "undeveloped".
To live more "real "life than the fantasies spun by a bunch of outoftouchwithreality
Hollywood writers:1:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

In other words I am right.:prrr:
unlike Kex, I dont beleive they were certain until probably sept of last year, certainly
after christmas.
Sure they sold players and you need players out there, but if the other sides software
is selling better then thats a sure sign that the public is going their way.
Anyway they probably saw little downside of trying a format war, never stopping to think of the damage they would do to the future market for HD on disc caused by the confusion sown by a format war.
I do know one thing, if they havent had an exit strategy from the start they are as stupid
as a certain sir talky.
AND IF THEY HAVENT IMPLEMENTED IT BY NOW...
Then they don't deserve to be running a taco stand, much less a major corp:1:

Sorry Pix, they didn't know last September, it wasn't till after the Warner announcement that they saw the writing on the wall. It wasn't until Walmart and Netflix announced bluray exclusive which pushed them to announce sooner than later that they were willing to concede defeat. So do not bring your toothless and brainless head here trying to look like you were right all along. You have been wrong with 95% of the things you have posted here, and this was no exception.

[Feanor]

Looks like the format war's end is looming.

Even though it's widely expected that HD-DVD won't last much longer, this is the first published report I've seen that explicitly puts a timeline on HD-DVD's demise. ...

Toshiba officially announces end of HD-DVD -- Toshiba Press Release (http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/press/2008_02/pr1903.htm).

And to think I didn't have cent invested in hardware or software: lucky for once. :cornut:

[pixelthis]

Sorry Pix, they didn't know last September, it wasn't till after the Warner announcement that they saw the writing on the wall. It wasn't until Walmart and Netflix announced bluray exclusive which pushed them to announce sooner than later that they were willing to concede defeat. So do not bring your toothless and brainless head here trying to look like you were right all along. You have been wrong with 95% of the things you have posted here, and this was no exception.


I have been saying that Blu will win from the getgo.
Find ONE of my posts that says otherwise, ass.:prrr:
Idiotic posts like this make me doubt that you are the "industry" insider you claim to be.
You have no clue as to how business works.
When did tosh have an "exit" strategy?
FROM the very start, just like ANY modern business basing a large chunk of change
and, even more importantly, credibility, on a single decision.
You might not have known as early as last sept, but you are probably the ONLY
so called "industry insider" that couldn't see the very large neon lettered handwriting
on the wall.
If my "toothless and brainless" head could figure it out and your head, emptied of
common sense by a college education no doubt, couldnt, then you might want to rethink the old career path.
Or will you have to wait until whatever age you state has as a minimum to work?:1:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I have been saying that Blu will win from the getgo.
Find ONE of my posts that says otherwise, ass.:prrr:

Anyone can state the obvious when it becomes obvious. You have yet to break a single piece of news, you have been commenting on what has already been reported. Hence, looking at the horses a$$ instead of staring at it face to face.


Idiotic posts like this make me doubt that you are the "industry" insider you claim to be.
You have no clue as to how business works.

How would you know? You do not work in the film industry. How would you know if I am right or wrong? Things played out just like I predicted they would in detail. You just commented on what your read. Since that takes no brains, its a perfect strategy for you.


When did tosh have an "exit" strategy?

They started planning it just before the Walmart announcement. That is confirmed and fact.


FROM the very start, just like ANY modern business basing a large chunk of change
and, even more importantly, credibility, on a single decision.

If you plan to fail from the start, you will fail. You do not sink $600 million dollars into something you think you are going to lose.


You might not have known as early as last sept, but you are probably the ONLY
so called "industry insider" that couldn't see the very large neon lettered handwriting
on the wall.

This does not make any sense at all fool, I have been saying the HD DVD was going to lose since January of 2007. You only saw the neon handwriting on the wall after I wrote it.


If my "toothless and brainless" head could figure it out and your head, emptied of
common sense by a college education no doubt, couldnt, then you might want to rethink the old career path.
Or will you have to wait until whatever age you state has as a minimum to work?:1:

Your toothless and brainless head did not have to figure anything out, it was done for you by other posters here like Woochifer. Your brainless and toothless head just likes to ride on others coat tails. So now you are brainless, toothless, old and lazy.

Sounds like you are jealous because most hicks like you never finish third grade.

[GMichael]

It's a tough crowd today ladies and gentlemen. Please stay behind the Plexiglas walls for your own safety.

[pixelthis]

It's a tough crowd today ladies and gentlemen. Please stay behind the Plexiglas walls for your own safety.


Not tough at all, just sir talky rewriting history again.
Someone needs to get him a decent bottle of wiskey do he doesnt have to drink
hair tonic:1:

[GMichael]

Not tough at all, just sir talky rewriting history again.
Someone needs to get him a decent bottle of wiskey do he doesnt have to drink
hair tonic:1:

Is that English?

[braxus]

Are we talking about HD DVD or has this thread lost interest in such?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Is that English?

No G, It's hick. His is a back woods dialect. The only other to use it was bigfoot.