Warner Goes Blu - will drop HD-DVD by May 2008 [Archive]

Woochifer

01-04-2008, 02:03 PM

Just announced within the hour, Warner will officially support only Blu-ray after May 2008. This is a potentially fatal blow to the fortunes of HD-DVD, as Warner holds by far the largest market share of the HD optical disc market, and has been the #1 distributor of HD-DVD titles since the format's inception. With Warner's announcement, Blu-ray now has an exclusive hold over four of the six major studios, which together control over 2/3 of the market. Looks like this also means that Warner's TotalHD hybrid disc format, which was announced to much fanfare at last year's CES, will never come to market.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/2008-01-04-warner-brothers-blu-ray_N.htm

Here's Warner's press release:

In response to consumer demand, Warner Bros. Entertainment will release its high-definition DVD titles exclusively in the Blu-ray disc format beginning later this year, it was announced today by Barry Meyer, Chairman & CEO, Warner Bros. and Kevin Tsujihara, President, Warner Bros. Home Entertainment Group.

"Warner Bros.' move to exclusively release in the Blu-ray disc format is a strategic decision focused on the long term and the most direct way to give consumers what they want,"" said Meyer. "The window of opportunity for high-definition DVD could be missed if format confusion continues to linger. We believe that exclusively distributing in Blu-ray will further the potential for mass market success and ultimately benefit retailers, producers, and most importantly, consumers."

Warner Home Video will continue to release its titles in standard DVD format and Blu-ray. After a short window following their standard DVD and Blu-ray releases, all new titles will continue to be released in HD DVD until the end of May 2008.

"Warner Bros. has produced in both high-definition formats in an effort to provide consumer choice, foster mainstream adoption and drive down hardware prices," said Jeff Bewkes, President and Chief Executive Officer, Time Warner Inc., the parent company of Warner Bros. Entertainment. "Today’s decision by Warner Bros. to distribute in a single format comes at the right time and is the best decision both for consumers and Time Warner.''

"A two-format landscape has led to consumer confusion and indifference toward high definition, which has kept the technology from reaching mass adoption and becoming the important revenue stream that it can be for the industry," said Tsujihara. "Consumers have clearly chosen Blu-ray, and we believe that recognizing this preference is the right step in making this great home entertainment experience accessible to the widest possible audience. Warner Bros. has worked very closely with the Toshiba Corporation in promoting high definition media and we have enormous respect for their efforts. We look forward to working with them on other projects in the future."

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-04-2008, 02:20 PM

Woochifer

01-04-2008, 02:21 PM

Woochifer

01-04-2008, 02:26 PM

This is what I get for being in a meeting. You beat me by 8 minutes. I really wish I could have reported this when I first found out. So you get reddies for beating me ya bum!!!

:lol:

Bring 'em on, T-boy! You're just daring me to fire off another greenie at you, aren't you? :cornut:

L.J.

01-04-2008, 02:37 PM

YES!!!!!!! It's about time. So sick of this stupid war.

Great, and I can already imagine what Pix is gonna say :lol:

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-04-2008, 02:38 PM

Wow! This announcement has caused a seismic disturbance on the High Def Digest message board -- 16 pages of responses to this news in less than two hours! I can only imagine what's going on at the AVS Forum.

This is not like the Paramount/Dreamworks announcement, which basically brought HD-DVD closer to parity with Blu-ray. This is the defection of HD-DVD's top selling studio, one of the format's early champions, and the only remaining major neutral studio. Warner has been in a tight partnership with Toshiba since the two companies successfully developed and marketed the DVD format. This split is significant.

I think it might only be a matter of time before Universal goes neutral, and Paramount/Dreamworks follow suit after the clock runs out on their HD-DVD deal.

Wooch,
Paramount has an out clause, so I do not think they will be finishing out their contract with the HD DVD PG. I am going to call my friends and sources there and see If I can get more info on this.

I wonder how Amir is taking this news. He is probably at the Golden Gate by now.

I just got out of a meeting with the home video department. It looks like Disney is going to ramp up its releases in leu of the good news. However I just sold my soul to the devil as I will be working alot harder than I want to. They have decided that all releases will have a hometheater mix treatment.

GMichael

01-04-2008, 02:53 PM

YES!!!!!!! It's about time. So sick of this stupid war.

Great, and I can already imagine what Pix is gonna say :lol:

He's going to say that he told us all so and that we should have listened to him.
It's a great strategy of his. Spout off randomly in every direction and eventually he'll be right about something. Even if half the time he's contradicting himself.

Good news for BR fans. Bring on the HD.

Thanks Wooch,
You too Sir T. (Here, you can have your sword back)

Rich-n-Texas

01-04-2008, 05:27 PM

So what happens next? Blu-ray player prices skyrocket?

He's going to say that he told us all so and that we should have listened to him.
It's a great strategy of his. Spout off randomly in every direction and eventually he'll be right about something. Even if half the time he's contradicting himself.
Ha ha ha ha ha!!! :lol:

Maybe I was wrong about what I said earlier GM...

kexodusc

01-04-2008, 05:33 PM

Man, didn't Microsoft dole out a ton of cash to try and buy studio support just 2 or 3 months ago? That's gotta suck...millions spent, now rendered ineffective.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-04-2008, 05:35 PM

I just got off the phone with my buddy from Paramount. They are spitting up blood, slashing wrist, and the ones still standing are waving hankeys over the ones that passed out.

Alot of the rank and file are absolutely furious at the company heads for going HD DVD exclusive. The engineers really liked the format alot, but it looks like the head honchos liked the money more. What they are telling me now is that Paramount will honor their contract with HD DVD, but that is subject to change at any time because they have a out-clause that allows them to go neutral if events change in bluray favor, or they do not meet the million player goal they promised them.

Woochifer

01-04-2008, 06:20 PM

Man, didn't Microsoft dole out a ton of cash to try and buy studio support just 2 or 3 months ago? That's gotta suck...millions spent, now rendered ineffective.

It was Toshiba that apparently handed $150 million to Dreamworks and $75 million to Paramount. Rumors were flying like crazy regarding Microsoft's role, but they've never been directly linked to any cash payouts. Supposedly, MS' role was to provide free tech support and developer tools basically to steer those studios towards using the VC-1 codec.

At that time, Toshiba had to make a dramatic move of some kind just to keep its format afloat through the holiday buying season. A lot of the analysts had already projected that HD-DVD's obituary would come out at CES. Bringing Paramount and Dreamworks to the HD-DVD side simply reduced Blu-ray's lead, but did not eliminate it altogether. And even during those weeks when HD-DVD's biggest exclusive releases came out, the format still could not outsell the Blu-ray discs.

If anything, this Warner move puts HD-DVD back in the same, if not worse, position they were in prior to the Paramount/Dreamworks announcement. And from a perception and morale standpoint (important consideration in a consumer-driven market), Warner is the one studio that HD-DVD supporters had counted on the most. How do they now perceive the HD-DVD format with Warner counting down the weeks before they exit the market? I guess that Toshiba's payout to Paramount/Dreamworks ensured that HD-DVD would not die altogether at the conclusion of the holiday shopping season, but things stand, I don't see how the format can survive too far past the summer. The only move left that can ensure that the format war drag out through next year would be to switch either Disney or Fox to HD-DVD, but that seems highly unlikely.

The rumors spinning right now are speculating on the amount that Sony and its Blu-ray partners had to pay Warner to get them to dump HD-DVD. One figure that I've seen is $450 million :eek: and supposedly the HD-DVD side had offered $375 million. But, again those figures are totally unsubstantiated rumors, but they're in circulation. Quite a bit of coin, but whatever they did, the Warner move basically puts HD-DVD on borrowed time.

I don't see how HD-DVD can hold onto its studio partners after the existing agreements expire, with the strongest member of their team now defecting to the Blu-ray side. The pressure was already building on Universal last year to go neutral. With Warner no longer neutral, I would think that the pressure is now on Universal to switch sides altogether.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-04-2008, 06:57 PM

It was Toshiba that apparently handed $150 million to Dreamworks and $75 million to Paramount. Rumors were flying like crazy regarding Microsoft's role, but they've never been directly linked to any cash payouts. Supposedly, MS' role was to provide free tech support and developer tools basically to steer those studios towards using the VC-1 codec.

At that time, Toshiba had to make a dramatic move of some kind just to keep its format afloat through the holiday buying season. A lot of the analysts had already projected that HD-DVD's obituary would come out at CES. Bringing Paramount and Dreamworks to the HD-DVD side simply reduced Blu-ray's lead, but did not eliminate it altogether. And even during those weeks when HD-DVD's biggest exclusive releases came out, the format still could not outsell the Blu-ray discs.

If anything, this Warner move puts HD-DVD back in the same, if not worse, position they were in prior to the Paramount/Dreamworks announcement. And from a perception and morale standpoint (important consideration in a consumer-driven market), Warner is the one studio that HD-DVD supporters had counted on the most. How do they now perceive the HD-DVD format with Warner counting down the weeks before they exit the market? I guess that Toshiba's payout to Paramount/Dreamworks ensured that HD-DVD would not die altogether at the conclusion of the holiday shopping season, but things stand, I don't see how the format can survive too far past the summer. The only move left that can ensure that the format war drag out through next year would be to switch either Disney or Fox to HD-DVD, but that seems highly unlikely.

The rumors spinning right now are speculating on the amount that Sony and its Blu-ray partners had to pay Warner to get them to dump HD-DVD. One figure that I've seen is $450 million :eek: and supposedly the HD-DVD side had offered $375 million. But, again those figures are totally unsubstantiated rumors, but they're in circulation. Quite a bit of coin, but whatever they did, the Warner move basically puts HD-DVD on borrowed time.

I don't see how HD-DVD can hold onto its studio partners after the existing agreements expire, with the strongest member of their team now defecting to the Blu-ray side. The pressure was already building on Universal last year to go neutral. With Warner no longer neutral, I would think that the pressure is now on Universal to switch sides altogether.

Wooch,
The figure was not that high at all. I know for a fact that it was not $450 million dollars. If anyone believes that it was the money, does not understand this business at all. This was not a Paramount/Dreamworks type situation. Warner saw their neutral stance as a format killer in the long run. Hence the statement that the format was creating consumer confusion and apath. While Warner was making the most money from bluray/HD DVD, they knew this was not sustainable.

I have been hearing for weeks this was going to happen. And what drove this point home was the fact that a Toshiba Representative made three trips from Japan to Los Angeles to meet with Warner. They apparently offered Warner alot more than $375 million, but Warner believed that the end of this war would yield far more than this amount for them over the long run, and going exclusive with the format that already had the momentum was advantageous to them. I did hear that some thin air offers(huge sums of money) were on the table from both camps these last weeks. But ultimately it was the resolution of the war that really got Warner to bite. The money did help however, but in the end it was not $450 million.

Right now the rumor line is on fire. I have now heard from six of my former colleagues and friends from film school that work at various studios that more movement towards blu is coming very quickly. I already posted right here that Universal has been touring BR replication facilities in the last year, and certainly in the last couple of weeks. I heard that Universal was planning to go neutral pretty soon, and is making plans as we post to do just that. They knew of the Warner deal a couple of weeks ago, I heard about it at the same time. From what I am hearing through the grape vine, Paramount/Dreamworks and Universal will make this move before the end of the year so they can benefit from Christmas sales of their titles for next year. I personally believe(but cannot confirm) that Universal will be the first.

I do not believe this war was good for the industry, even if it was good for consumers. Just imagine where we would be if everyone united behind Bluray. We would have had far more titles released, far more players on the market, though I do not think that players would have been as cheap as they are.

drseid

01-05-2008, 04:04 AM

I guess I have to eat that humble pie from my incorrect prediction last year. ;-) I literally just heard the news a few minutes ago as I have been on a business trip (and I guess isolated from world news).

I would say this does it for HD DVD, and I too would expect other studios to follow, as Warner was a *critical* studio for the format.

I have heard various rumors (from sources of low-reliability, I might add) of a payout on the BR side of as high as 500 million, but similar to the HD DVD rumors at the time of the Paramount deal, I am sure there may be *some* truth in the rumors but not the whole story by any means. My guess is it was a very substantial payout (whatever the number assuming one was made), but HD DVD would have done the same, so I can hardly blame the Blu-ray folks for wanting to and succeedingly dealing a body crushing blow to HD DVD for whatever action or sum was used.

Guess I'll just have to feel a bit Blu, and switch my buying preferences now that Blu-ray has pretty much won the format "war."

Consider this about as much humble pie I can stomach for one day. ;-)

---Dave

Woochifer

01-05-2008, 07:42 AM

Looks like the dominoes will start falling in short order at CES. HD-DVD's news conference at CES originally scheduled for Sunday has been "postponed." Considering that this was supposed to be the event that lays out the hardware and release roadmap for the next several months, this could be a sign that HD-DVD's demise will come sooner than later.

Blu-ray's news conference at CES last year was where they declared victory. I thought it was premature at that time, but if they made the same announcement this year, it would definitely not be premature with Warner's announcement.

BRANDONH

01-05-2008, 10:42 AM

So what happens next? Blu-ray player prices skyrocket?

Good question.
I am Format neutral for I have a duo player on the way.
For me it will make no difference which format wins I will be able to play them both.

But at the same time Its like saying it's silly to have more than one automobile manufacturer whether it be a Ford or a Chevy etc.
Take away the competition and you have a monopoly.

Which makes me think the announcement seems a bit premature since there are now 3 dual format players.
IMO with the eventual availability of less expensive duo players it could have ended the format war.

If this is indeed the end of HD DVD then Blu-Ray will not have any competition, so there will be no reason to offer the consumer a lower price for the player or the disc.

At first I too thought the two formats was silly... from a consumer point of view
But what about the Manufacturers point of view?

From what I understand the HD DVD does not require any special retooling to manufacturer so the manufacturers of SD DVD can still make both discs from the same plant.
and that to Blu-Ray discs require a totally different manufacturing process requiring retooling to make those discs and that the Blu-Ray is a lot more expensive to make.

Sounds like the SD DVD manufacturers who are also now manufacturing HD DVD will be forced to stop making SD DVD or stop making HD DVD and/or add a completely new production line to the plant to make Blu-Ray.
I believe this could cause the price to stay high for Blu-Ray and a possible increase in the SD DVD as well.

kexodusc

01-05-2008, 01:24 PM

Take away the competition and you have a monopoly.

Which makes me think the announcement seems a bit premature since there are now 3 dual format players.
IMO with the eventual availability of less expensive duo players it could have ended the format war.

If this is indeed the end of HD DVD then Blu-Ray will not have any competition, so there will be no reason to offer the consumer a lower price for the player or the disc.

At first I too thought the two formats was silly... from a consumer point of view
But what about the Manufacturers point of view?

Competition isn't going to suffer as bad as you think. Instead of very few companies offering one of HD-DVD or BluRay (or a limited selection of both), you'll start to see a lot of companies competing fiercely for BluRay. We saw this exact same thing with DVD once it finally emerged as the clear winner.

I'm sure Toshiba already has a BluRay player in development, just in case.

As for production costs, they probably are a bit higher in the BluRay camp, but negligible over several years of product life and billions of discs sold. Prices on players and discs will drop when Walmart, BestBuy, Amazon, and all your local movie/electronics stores start fighting for all your BluRay business. They had to fully commit to carrying a product for that to happen, and if HD-DVD is indeed dying, there's less risk committing now.
This is a good thing for the end-consumer, except the early adopters who picked HD-DVD or hedged their bets by purchasing both formats.

Prices should fall as the economies of scale grow. This has been the model in the industry for decades.

musicman1999

01-05-2008, 01:26 PM

Why could they have not done this before the boxing day sales, when i became format neutral by buying a HD-DVD player.

bill

Groundbeef

01-05-2008, 01:57 PM

Well, I guess I'll just wait until MS announces a BR player for the 360, and I'll pick it up.

I know it won't count as an actual BR player, but it'll play BR disks all the same.

They have previously announced that it would not be out of the question if HD-DVD dies, and it seems that's coming pretty soon. I just hope I get my 5 free movies before the format dies.:)

L.J.

01-05-2008, 02:27 PM

Dean said it took 4 months to his 5 free. Some have reported getting theirs in as early as 5 weeks though. It's been about 2 months for me and I'm still waiting.

pixelthis

01-05-2008, 09:37 PM

He's going to say that he told us all so and that we should have listened to him.
It's a great strategy of his. Spout off randomly in every direction and eventually he'll be right about something. Even if half the time he's contradicting himself.

Good news for BR fans. Bring on the HD.

Thanks Wooch,
You too Sir T. (Here, you can have your sword back)

Sore loser.
There is no "strategy", just knowledge.
The bad thing about being new to a board like this is that the members think you're therefore new to the world.
I have seen this thing countless times, its pretty easy to predict.
Only the clueless like groundbeef and a few other HD fanboys are gonna be surprized
by this. Even tosh knew that their days are numbered, and are trying to get out with as
many fingers and toes as possible, have been for quite some time.
I just wonder how I have "contradicted" myself. I have been pretty consistent in saying that this war is just about over, I was rather conservative about the time frame, I actually thought it would be more like summer of 2 double ought 8 when HDdvd would join the eight track tape players of the world in attics across the country.
Even tho this technically doesnt mean an eNd to HDDVD, ONLY THE MOST fannatical of supporters dont now see the writing on the silver disc.
Midway was the actual end of WWII in the pacific theater, not the nuking of two cities.
After the US sunk four japanese aircraft carriers with an outmatched task force, it was all but over.
This is Toshibas MIDWAY. The only question is, will they be gracious about it?
Just ignore the fact that their moribun format is dead in the water, like matshuhita did with
DVDAUDIO, refusing to aknowledge defeat?
ANYWAY, kudos to warner for the swift swordthrust into the sternum, this action will end a costly debacle, and save consumers millions, not to mention speed up the time that we can all get our stuff on Blu-ray. Whats really nice is that the public choose, and they choose the more technically advanced and robust format with the best chance for a future, the good guys won, and that is a rare enough thing in this business.
ANYWAY, Groundbeef, I know where you can get some quikcrete to pour into that future "boatanchor" of yours:prrr: :1:

diggity

01-06-2008, 12:48 AM

woohoo,

for once one of my purchasing gambles may have paid off !!!!!!!

Groundbeef

01-06-2008, 10:27 AM

ANYWAY, Groundbeef, I know where you can get some quikcrete to pour into that future "boatanchor" of yours:prrr: :1:

Do you think I'm invested in HD-DVD or something? I own the 360 addon ($149) and have 5 movies. I hardly consider my "investment" a boat anchor. If anything you ought to direct your comments to Sir T. He owns over 100+ HD-DVD titles.

I'll just wait until the 360 offers a BR add-on and get it.

But you can stick your snarky comment up your uneducated, unintelligible, and horribly uninteresting ass.

L.J.

01-06-2008, 11:33 AM

ldgibson76

01-06-2008, 01:36 PM

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-06-2008, 02:08 PM

http://www.campaignhd.com/080104_Warner_Paid.html

Obviously, there's numerous sides to a story.........!
Is anyone familiar with this information and if so, does it hold water?!

It doesn't hold a sip of water. Warner was not paid anywhere near $500 million. This is nothing more than Toshiba's sour grapes because they made an offer this size and it was turned down.

I also have confirmed this whole notion about Fox going HD DVD is a farce. Warner told Toshiba that if another studio does not come with them, there is no point in going exclusive to HD DVD. Toshiba approached Fox, and they were rebuffed by Fox. Keep in mind, Fox asked for region coding and extra protection from piracy, and the DVD forum turned them down. So why would a company that asked for two important changes that was turned down suddenly want to switch sides to a less protected non region coded format? It doesn't make sense. The Fox insider at Bluray.com has already stated its a lie.

This is nothing more than Toshiba trying to demonize Warner for making the switch that has cost them millions of dollars in losses and future royalties from patents. Sour, sour, sour grapes from Toshiba.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-06-2008, 02:15 PM

Do you think I'm invested in HD-DVD or something? I own the 360 addon ($149) and have 5 movies. I hardly consider my "investment" a boat anchor. If anything you ought to direct your comments to Sir T. He owns over 100+ HD-DVD titles.

I'll just wait until the 360 offers a BR add-on and get it.

But you can stick your snarky comment up your uneducated, unintelligible, and horribly uninteresting ass.

No loss for me. I am going to keep my titles AND I have purchased a A35 on Ebay for $250. I cannot see any reason to get rid of any of my HD DVD titles except Universals. When they make their switch to Bluray, I will be getting review copies from them so no need to keep their titles around. The A35 upconverts DVD's so well its a no brainer to get one to support over 2100+ DVD's. I am going to pass on my XA2 to my best friend so we can share HD DVD movies that I have in my collection with him.

Woochifer

01-06-2008, 07:44 PM

http://www.campaignhd.com/080104_Warner_Paid.html

Obviously, there's numerous sides to a story.........!
Is anyone familiar with this information and if so, does it hold water?!
I recognize that the info is from a HD DVD friendly source, but I do think it deserves consideration.
It's evident that some seem underestimate the influence the money had on the Warner/Fox decision.

Regards.

Whether or not payoffs were involved, it doesn't matter because the result is the same either way -- HD-DVD has taken a blow that very well might be the knockout punch. I recall that the HD-DVD supporters were elated when Paramount/Dreamworks dropped Blu-ray, and they certainly weren't bemoaning the reports of Toshiba and/or Microsoft paying off both studios in that case.

I've been reading the rumors about Fox in negotiations with Toshiba to join Warner in switching over to HD-DVD. But, that would've been a tall order considering that the reasons why Fox went with Blu-ray in the first place partly had to do with HD-DVD's less secure copy protection and lack of regional coding. Warner made this move to end the format war, and they only way they would've gone exclusive to HD-DVD was to switch one of the Blu-ray studios. A unilateral switch by Warner to Blu-ray simply makes more sense given how the sales trends have gone and the need to include another studio (presumably with their own agenda) in any negotiations with HD-DVD.

With this Warner move, HD-DVD is now in a worse position than they were before the Paramount/Dreamworks deal. At that time, analysts were already predicting that HD-DVD would be irrelevant by the time CES rolled around.

With Warner setting a June sunset for their HD-DVD support, it turns out that the Paramount/Dreamworks deal merely served to buy a few extra months for HD-DVD. Not sure how good a deal that is for Toshiba given that they'd been losing money on each HD-DVD player that they make.

I think by this time next year, we'll finally have a unified HD disc format. What an absolute waste of resources and energy this whole format war has been. While it might have accelerated price drops on hardware, the format war has created enough confusion and acrimony in the market to impede the uptake on HD optical discs just as the demand for HDTVs has begun to explode.

The real format war all along should have been about transitioning consumers from SD DVDs to HD resolution discs. The prospects for this transition were always uncertain, and having all of this confusion and division in the marketplace over the last two years IMO makes the prospects for HD discs even more uncertain.

pixelthis

01-07-2008, 02:44 AM

I don't have too much invested in HDDVD. My A2 was only $99 and I recently got in on some of those B1G1 sales which brings me to only 7 titles. I'm at about $200 invested total. Maybe I'll move it into my bedroom or up front eventually. I should have held back on jumping in with HDDVD. Dang cheap player making me pull the trigger :incazzato: I don't want the player taking up space just for 7 movies. I could put a xbox or wii there :)

Hows the "dvd functionality"? I heard so much from HDDVD EARLY ADOPTERS
that if worst came to worst they would have a great DVD player.
Well, I played a DVD on a Sony Blu and wasnt too impressed with it, I was just wondering how the tosh does.
And a lot of people thought I was an ardent fanboy of Blu, and I did like the tech better than HD, but while I thought Blu winning was a fati accompli, others might note that I have posted several times, weather blu or HD, we need an end to this format war NOW,
give a format time to become established before the reccession hits in 08..
And if Warner was paid 500 mill good for them, its a bargain for the blu camp really,
will put them in the catbird seat and all but kill off their main competitor.
It also means that consumer education can start, and R&D can concentrate on one format, and pioneers can get a HDDVD disc player without the slightest worry,
although there hasnt been "worry" for quite some time, as most in the know know that HD has been losing this little "war" for some time:1:

GMichael

01-07-2008, 06:14 AM

Sore loser.
:

Did you miss the part about me having a PS3 player. BR is good to go in my home.
But I do seem to remember you saying that downloading was going to be the winner. Hmmmm...

GMichael

01-07-2008, 06:23 AM

Looks like Target is the next domino to fall into the BR camp.

http://www.ps3news.ca/01062008/17/more_ps3_good_news_target_going_blu_ray_exclusive

Rich-n-Texas

01-07-2008, 06:32 AM

I like the Oreck air purifier ad better than the article about the kiddie PS3 toy. :rolleyes:

GMichael

01-07-2008, 06:44 AM

I like the Oreck air purifier ad better than the article about the kiddie PS3 toy. :rolleyes:

LOL. What? Got some kind of dust problem down there?

Rich-n-Texas

01-07-2008, 07:16 AM

No. Friggin' cat hair.

This BR announcement even made the local news down here in hicksville, so it MUST be for real.

I wish there was a way you could view the goings on at the CES. I wonder how many manufacturers are scrambling right now to get their HD players disconnected from their display demo's.

L.J.

01-07-2008, 08:02 AM

Looks like Target is the next domino to fall into the BR camp.

http://www.ps3news.ca/01062008/17/more_ps3_good_news_target_going_blu_ray_exclusive

Come on Universal, come to daddy baby :cornut:

Groundbeef

01-07-2008, 08:33 AM

No loss for me. I am going to keep my titles AND I have purchased a A35 on Ebay for $250. I cannot see any reason to get rid of any of my HD DVD titles except Universals. When they make their switch to Bluray, I will be getting review copies from them so no need to keep their titles around. The A35 upconverts DVD's so well its a no brainer to get one to support over 2100+ DVD's. I am going to pass on my XA2 to my best friend so we can share HD DVD movies that I have in my collection with him.

It's not really a loss for anyone other than Toshiba.

However, as a consumer, it does cause some future price concerns. I'm not really in the position to be paying the highest amount a studio wants for a movie. I would prefer Toshiba, or some other tech to drive down costs for ME. Removing a 2nd tier competitor isn't "great" except for the company that is now #1 (BR).

CD prices took FOREVER to drop, long after economies of scale, experience curve gains in mfg, and other factors should have caused a drop. Only within a few years have prices dipped below ~$15/CD. This is due to competition (MP3, online digital offerings etc). I certainly dont want to be paying $25+ per movie for BR.

L.J.

01-07-2008, 08:37 AM

Hows the "dvd functionality"? I heard so much from HDDVD EARLY ADOPTERS
that if worst came to worst they would have a great DVD player.
Well, I played a DVD on a Sony Blu and wasnt too impressed with it, I was just wondering how the tosh does.
And a lot of people thought I was an ardent fanboy of Blu, and I did like the tech better than HD, but while I thought Blu winning was a fati accompli, others might note that I have posted several times, weather blu or HD, we need an end to this format war NOW,
give a format time to become established before the reccession hits in 08..
And if Warner was paid 500 mill good for them, its a bargain for the blu camp really,
will put them in the catbird seat and all but kill off their main competitor.
It also means that consumer education can start, and R&D can concentrate on one format, and pioneers can get a HDDVD disc player without the slightest worry,
although there hasnt been "worry" for quite some time, as most in the know know that HD has been losing this little "war" for some time:1:

Well to be honest, I haven't played a DVD on it since I first tested it out to make sure it worked. Besides the 15 sec start up time, I haven't had any problems playing HDDVD. Not bad for the $99 I paid plus 5 free movies(if they ever come). I perfer my 2910 for DVD playback. I wouldn't want it to get lonely and give the HD players all the fun :)

I have 3 HDTV's so my plan is to eventually replace the movies with BR and move the player into a different room. But for now, I can still enjoy King Kong, Transformers and all that good stuff. Too bad most of these titles only support DD+. I'm not saying they sound bad, I just hope we get better audio treatment with the BR version. I want all that I can get.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-07-2008, 10:29 AM

It's not really a loss for anyone other than Toshiba.

Exactly!

However, as a consumer, it does cause some future price concerns. I'm not really in the position to be paying the highest amount a studio wants for a movie. I would prefer Toshiba, or some other tech to drive down costs for ME. Removing a 2nd tier competitor isn't "great" except for the company that is now #1 (BR).

Beef, Toshiba is not really a player in disc pricing. They are a hardware company, so there is nothing they can do about the price of software. The bottom line is that it is still really expensive to author high definition disc. It is five times harder to author either formats disc than it was the DVD. BD-j require new tools, programmers have to be paid, and quality control has to be closely maintianed or you have playback issues. As it becomes easier to author, and programmers get better with coding disc, the prices will come down. Keep in mind, the drive for the studios is to get Bluray prices on par with current DVD pricing. That was going to be impossible with a format war still going on.

CD prices took FOREVER to drop, long after economies of scale, experience curve gains in mfg, and other factors should have caused a drop. Only within a few years have prices dipped below ~$15/CD. This is due to competition (MP3, online digital offerings etc). I certainly dont want to be paying $25+ per movie for BR.

I do not know if you know this, but the record companies were fined pretty heavily for collusion in the pricing of CD. They are now being investigated for price collusion for digital downloads. If they could have held prices at $16-18 forever, they would have. Keep in mind, the disc prices of both formats is roughly the same, so no matter which format won, prices would still be $25 at least for the near future. If you have been paying any attention to pricing lately, prices have dropped in some cases $5 a disc.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-07-2008, 10:33 AM

Come on Universal, come to daddy baby :cornut:

Exactly my thoughts, but they are coming that I can assure you. They have been visiting BR replication plants for about a year now, and rumor all over Hollywood after the Warner announcement is that is a matter of time. I cannot wait since I am the Universal bluray reviewer on Bluray.com.

Woochifer

01-07-2008, 12:48 PM

It's not really a loss for anyone other than Toshiba.

Well, it's also a loss for Microsoft. They'd been counting on HD-DVD to help seed their proprietary VC-1 codec, which is in competition with the MPEG-4 AVC codec that Blu-ray producers has begun standardizing around. Plus, they wanted this format war to impede the optical HD market as long as possible in order to allow as much time as possible for downloading to take off. (The irony is that Apple might wind up as the primary beneficiary from movie downloads, as they will supposedly announce new deals with Warner, Paramount, and Lionsgate next week at Macworld) With everything now lined up for Blu-ray, the industry can now focus on ramping up the Blu-ray hardware and movie title releases, which is exactly what Microsoft was trying to stop. Obviously that's not going to happen now.

At least Warner made their announcement before Bill Gates' keynote at CES, where he was supposedly set to announce an ultimate Xbox 360 with an integrated HD-DVD drive (about two years too late). The Digital Bits is reporting that as much as 30% of Gates' original speech was related to HD-DVD, but once Warner's went Blu-ray exclusive, Microsoft apparently purged all HD-DVD references from Gates' speech.

However, as a consumer, it does cause some future price concerns. I'm not really in the position to be paying the highest amount a studio wants for a movie. I would prefer Toshiba, or some other tech to drive down costs for ME. Removing a 2nd tier competitor isn't "great" except for the company that is now #1 (BR).

If you don't want to pay top tier prices, then don't be an early adopter. The Blu-ray and HD-DVD list prices right now are about the same as when the DVD format first came out. The DVD format eliminated the competition from VHS years ago, yet average DVD prices have continued to fall. This is because the DVD is now a mature market, where you'll have multi-tiered pricing between new releases, catalog titles, and clearance items. You think Blu-ray prices will stay at the current levels indefinitely?

And just because HD-DVD is likely on its way out does not eliminate competition altogether. Last time I checked, there were six major studios who compete with each other and countless other smaller studios that comprise the home video market.

Prices on Blu-ray titles will fall as economies of scale ramp up, older titles move into lower priced backcatalogs, and previous versions get deleted. Right now, all the HD optical titles are recent releases that carry new release pricing. By this time next year, you'll have a whole backcatalog of older titles that will have to carry lower list prices in order to continue selling. This is exactly what happened with the DVD, and no reason why this wouldn't happen with Blu-ray.

CD prices took FOREVER to drop, long after economies of scale, experience curve gains in mfg, and other factors should have caused a drop. Only within a few years have prices dipped below ~$15/CD. This is due to competition (MP3, online digital offerings etc). I certainly dont want to be paying $25+ per movie for BR.

Well, I remember that CDs cost about $25 to $30 when they first came out. It wasn't until later that prices settled in around that $18 price point. For new releases, the prices never fell, but for the rest of the catalog, the prices have dropped drastically. Of course, the record companies were operating like this decades before the CD was born.

With CDs, the prices only remained high across the board while collectors were busy dumping their LP and cassette collections and repopulating their collections with CDs. But, once that initial wave subsided, then the industry had to respond with lower prices on their slower selling catalog titles. And this occurred long before Napster and competition from the DVD had any impact.

The reason why you might perceive CD prices dropping is because music retailing has shifted towards big box outlets, which treat new CD releases as loss leaders designed to draw shoppers into the store in hopes that they will pick up some other higher margin items on their way to the checkout stand. The list prices on CDs are actually about the same as they were a few years ago. The primary difference in music retailing is that the number of dedicated music stores, which actually need to make money off of their CD sales in order to stay afloat, has declined by more than 30% since 1998.

A few years ago, Universal Music tried rolling back their prices across the board in hopes of stimulating CD sales. The experiment failed, they took a financial beating, and their pricing is now back in line with the rest of the industry. Across the board price cuts were not enough to stimulate demand to a point where increased unit sales could offset the revenue declines.

I've said all along that the record companies need to focus more on incentives to get consumers to buy CDs -- whether that's video content, online features, or high res tracks -- because with all these downloading options now available, consumers are not going to continue paying $15 to $18 for an audio-only experience, when DVDs offer up more interactive entertainment for not much more money. And if you're into console gaming, and are willing to wait a year or so, you can pick up video games for about $20 to $30 once they get rereleased as catalog titles.

Groundbeef

01-07-2008, 12:56 PM

Beef, Toshiba is not really a player in disc pricing. They are a hardware company, so there is nothing they can do about the price of software. The bottom line is that it is still really expensive to author high definition disc. It is five times harder to author either formats disc than it was the DVD. BD-j require new tools, programmers have to be paid, and quality control has to be closely maintianed or you have playback issues. As it becomes easier to author, and programmers get better with coding disc, the prices will come down. Keep in mind, the drive for the studios is to get Bluray prices on par with current DVD pricing. That was going to be impossible with a format war still going on. .

Well, I am not sure you can correlate the lack of competition (HD-DVD dying) to a lowering of BR disk prices. Although Toshiba wasn't in the disk market, they did offer a choice to the market place. I would venture a guess that as HD-DVD dies, the proliferation (sp?) of BOGO offers of BR will dry up like a Texas Tumbleweed. If you don't need to give them away, why do it?

Besides, BR was already selling more disks, so experience curve learning should be going on regardless of HD-DVD. Granted, economies of scale may advance quicker, but that won't translate into a discount for the consumer (most likely).

I do not know if you know this, but the record companies were fined pretty heavily for collusion in the pricing of CD. They are now being investigated for price collusion for digital downloads. If they could have held prices at $16-18 forever, they would have. Keep in mind, the disc prices of both formats is roughly the same, so no matter which format won, prices would still be $25 at least for the near future. If you have been paying any attention to pricing lately, prices have dropped in some cases $5 a disc.

Yes, fully aware. I think I got something like $20 in the mail when I joined up on the class action settlement. But the fact remains, if there is no HD-DVD, there is less incentive for prices to fall. After all, remeber HD (either format) was developed to shore up falling margins and market as the DVD enters its mature phase. The prices and margins were to be saving grace of the studios. Not lower more competive prices for consumers.

I generally pay around $12 for a CD, but I don't buy many anyway. Just pick up one or 2 at BB when on sale.

Groundbeef

01-07-2008, 01:03 PM

At least Warner made their announcement before Bill Gates' keynote at CES, where he was supposedly set to announce an ultimate Xbox 360 with an integrated HD-DVD drive (about two years too late). The Digital Bits is reporting that as much as 30% of Gates' original speech was related to HD-DVD, but once Warner's went Blu-ray exclusive, Microsoft apparently purged all HD-DVD references from Gates' speech.

.

There was quite a bit of speculation PRIOR to CES about the "ultimate" 360. MS actually batted that idea down before the CES, unusual, as they normally don't comment about rumors.

The HD-DVD wouldn't add a bit to the 360 game experience, and only serve to increase the cost of the unit. MS has been handing Sony its ass, and pricing is a big part to the sales differential. Most recent data suggest MS outsold Sony PS3 3-1 over the holiday time frame (Thanksgiving to Christmas). Thats a sound beating, and in no small part due to the nearly $100+ difference between units.

MS would be crazy to integrate the format. Now they can release a BR add-on as they have never ruled out.

pixelthis

01-08-2008, 12:47 AM

There was quite a bit of speculation PRIOR to CES about the "ultimate" 360. MS actually batted that idea down before the CES, unusual, as they normally don't comment about rumors.

The HD-DVD wouldn't add a bit to the 360 game experience, and only serve to increase the cost of the unit. MS has been handing Sony its ass, and pricing is a big part to the sales differential. Most recent data suggest MS outsold Sony PS3 3-1 over the holiday time frame (Thanksgiving to Christmas). Thats a sound beating, and in no small part due to the nearly $100+ difference between units.

MS would be crazy to integrate the format. Now they can release a BR add-on as they have never ruled out.

If micro and soft does go blu, it will be a good thing that the windows on toshibas
office tower won't open.
And your concern about high disc prices are unwarranted.
They arent high now, a recession is coming and raising prices in such an enviroment would be suicidal.
And remember , DVD was a rare moment of sanity in the electronics world, where a format was universaly agreed on, if any situation was ripe for price gouging that was it.
But today you can get some decent quality movies for five bucks and up, and new titles sell for fourteen or so.
And finally, your HDDVD player wont be such a bad investment, you'll be able to build quite a libary with all of the HDDVD DISC firesales that will be soon going on:lol:

emaidel

01-08-2008, 04:29 AM

In July, I took a chance and bought a Toshiba HDA-20K HD player. I guess the facts that it was a good deal less expensive than any Blue-Ray player available at the time, and that Microsoft was the technology behind it were determining factors.

Then, I started to discover how difficult it was to find HD discs. Blockbuster doesn't rent them, but Netflix does, though whenever I order an HD title from Netflix, it always states "very long wait" on my queue.

One thing I haven't seen any definitive answer on is this: which format is better? From all that I've read, each is as good as the other - the end result is accomplished via a different road.

The Toshiba player is agonizingly slow to start up, and HD discs also seem to take forever to load and start playing. Skipping from one track to another also takes a very long time. Regular DVD's, however, look astonishingly good, sometimes just as good as an HD version, and to me, that's the best feature about this player.

Does anyone have any information, other than gut feelings, as to the up-grading capabilities of Blue-Ray vs. HD-DVD? Until more titles are available in both (or only one) formats, it's the up-grading that is of the most importance to me at this point.

GMichael

01-08-2008, 07:58 AM

Yet another domino seems ready to fall. Paramount following Warner out the HD DVD door?

http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/07/paramount-following-warner-out-the-hd-dvd-door/

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-08-2008, 09:55 AM

Well, I am not sure you can correlate the lack of competition (HD-DVD dying) to a lowering of BR disk prices. Although Toshiba wasn't in the disk market, they did offer a choice to the market place. I would venture a guess that as HD-DVD dies, the proliferation (sp?) of BOGO offers of BR will dry up like a Texas Tumbleweed. If you don't need to give them away, why do it?

Actually you can correlate the lack of competition to the lowering of disc prices. With just one format, developement tools for BD-j will advance much quicker. The cost of authoring will drop because it will take fewer man hours to code the disc, and that will help prices drop. The longer this war went on, the harder it is for studios to reach this goal. There does not have to be a war for prices to drop. With the DVD there was no war, and prices came down just like they will here. There is going to be competition. Studios now have to compete to sell disc just like in the theater selling tickets. Manufacturers still have to compete with player prices, just like they did with DVD. What good is bogo when overall disc prices will fall. Bogo are short term bandaids. A drop in prices because of economy of scale is a long term solution.

Besides, BR was already selling more disks, so experience curve learning should be going on regardless of HD-DVD. Granted, economies of scale may advance quicker, but that won't translate into a discount for the consumer (most likely).

Welcome to being an early adopter. If you are worried about prices at this point, you probably got into the technology too early. These prices do not bother me as I was an early adopter to DVD. With the except of the war, I see no difference between the beginnings of DVD, and the emergence of Bluray as the next gen format.

Yes, fully aware. I think I got something like $20 in the mail when I joined up on the class action settlement. But the fact remains, if there is no HD-DVD, there is less incentive for prices to fall. After all, remeber HD (either format) was developed to shore up falling margins and market as the DVD enters its mature phase. The prices and margins were to be saving grace of the studios. Not lower more competive prices for consumers.

Beef, where were you when the DVD got its start? You seem to have forgotten that the first DVD players where $1200?. Two years later they were about $500. There was no war then. Do you remember disc prices being $35? You now can get a DVD for $14. There was no war then. Why in the heck do you think it takes a format war for prices to drop?

If all HD was developed for was to shore up falling margins, why in the hell do you think Toshiba killed prices so fast? Why do you think they would absorb $400 million dollars in losses if the only goal is to shore up margins. That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. The studios don't make players, so player prices mean nothing to them. What they are looking for is extra copy protection that could not be accomplished on the DVD platform. It was the mamufacturers that wanted to increase unit margins because they are not making any money from DVD sales. This is why no manufacturer other than Toshiba was willing to jump on the HD DVD bandwagon. Manufacturers like to recoup R&D costs before price cutting starts, that is why their are so many manufacturers in the bluray camp.

I generally pay around $12 for a CD, but I don't buy many anyway. Just pick up one or 2 at BB when on sale.

I have to admit, I haven't bought a CD in ages.

Groundbeef

01-08-2008, 11:43 AM

Actually you can correlate the lack of competition to the lowering of disc prices. With just one format, developement tools for BD-j will advance much quicker. The cost of authoring will drop because it will take fewer man hours to code the disc, and that will help prices drop. The longer this war went on, the harder it is for studios to reach this goal. There does not have to be a war for prices to drop. With the DVD there was no war, and prices came down just like they will here. There is going to be competition. Studios now have to compete to sell disc just like in the theater selling tickets. Manufacturers still have to compete with player prices, just like they did with DVD. What good is bogo when overall disc prices will fall. Bogo are short term bandaids. A drop in prices because of economy of scale is a long term solution. .

I'm having a difficult time squaring "lack of competition" to "Lowering of disc prices". I would prefer many players in the market. I'm not particularly concerned about the pocket book of the studios involved.

Whether Paramount is in the BR camp doesn't affect how Fox authors movies to disc. If anything, the competition compells studios to find more efficent, and cost effective methods to do the work. Not less competition.

Welcome to being an early adopter. If you are worried about prices at this point, you probably got into the technology too early. These prices do not bother me as I was an early adopter to DVD. With the except of the war, I see no difference between the beginnings of DVD, and the emergence of Bluray as the next gen format. .

Well, there is some debate. You have excellent equipement, a trained ear, and can appreciate the subtle differences in video playback. With VHS vs DVD, any swinging d*ck could also. With DVD, vs "Upscaled DVD", vs BR, I would be willing to bet BR is going to have a harder time convincing the huddled masses to shell out $300+ for a player and $25-$30 a movie, compared to a >$100 "upconverter" and a $15 sale DVD.

I'm not suggesting HD-DVD is going to come back from the dead, but I hardly thing either format at this time has a secure future. BR just is a little brighter.

Beef, where were you when the DVD got its start? You seem to have forgotten that the first DVD players where $1200?. Two years later they were about $500. There was no war then. Do you remember disc prices being $35? You now can get a DVD for $14. There was no war then. Why in the heck do you think it takes a format war for prices to drop? .

I can remeber when VHS machines were the size of a coffee table, the remote was corded, and the tapes (TAPES!!!) were $100.

I don't think a war is "required" for prices to fall, but lets be honest. No studio, or hardware mfg was 1)expecting, 2) wanting prices to fall as quickly as they did.

If all HD was developed for was to shore up falling margins, why in the hell do you think Toshiba killed prices so fast? Why do you think they would absorb $400 million dollars in losses if the only goal is to shore up margins. That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. The studios don't make players, so player prices mean nothing to them. What they are looking for is extra copy protection that could not be accomplished on the DVD platform. It was the mamufacturers that wanted to increase unit margins because they are not making any money from DVD sales. This is why no manufacturer other than Toshiba was willing to jump on the HD DVD bandwagon. Manufacturers like to recoup R&D costs before price cutting starts, that is why their are so many manufacturers in the bluray camp. .

Sometimes when a ship is sinking, you may as well try and sink the other guy as well. It would be foolish to not consider personal pride, as well as a little vindictiveness to be working here. Set a price so low as to get consumers used to a $$ figure, and then let the other guy suck it up in the end.

In effect, you are suggesting the BR mfgs were colluding to artificially keep prices high. If you have any documentation of this you need to forward to your nearest SEC, FBI, and Congress man. If thats the case, go Toshiba. Force prices lower.

Either way, BR has probably won this war. Now we shall see if its a phyricc victory (will physical formats rule supreme or not?)

Woochifer

01-08-2008, 12:18 PM

Yet another domino seems ready to fall. Paramount following Warner out the HD DVD door?

http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/07/paramount-following-warner-out-the-hd-dvd-door/

Ooops! Sorry to steal your thunder GM, I just started a thread on this topic!

GMichael

01-08-2008, 12:27 PM

Hope no one minds if I pop in a few of my thoughts here.

I'm having a difficult time squaring "lack of competition" to "Lowering of disc prices". I would prefer many players in the market. I'm not particularly concerned about the pocket book of the studios involved.

Whether Paramount is in the BR camp doesn't affect how Fox authors movies to disc. If anything, the competition compells studios to find more efficient, and cost effective methods to do the work. Not less competition.

Until there is one HD format, neither will be competition for DVD's. Once BR or HD-DVD goes bye bye, the real price drops can start. More 3rd party manufactures will get involved with making hardware. Disk manufactures can gear up for one product instead of two (or in most cases, waiting till there was just one). This is the beginning of the competition, not the end.

Well, there is some debate. You have excellent equipment, a trained ear, and can appreciate the subtle differences in video playback. With VHS vs DVD, any swinging d*ck could also. With DVD, vs "Upscaled DVD", vs BR, I would be willing to bet BR is going to have a harder time convincing the huddled masses to shell out $300+ for a player and $25-$30 a movie, compared to a >$100 "upconverter" and a $15 sale DVD.

You have a point here. Not everyone will jump on the band wagon right away. But more and more people are interested in HD these days. Much more than SACD ever saw. If you watch sports at all you know that half the commercials are about HD this or that. BB and CC are pushing it big time.

I'm not suggesting HD-DVD is going to come back from the dead, but I hardly thing either format at this time has a secure future. BR just is a little brighter.

I'm thinking, a lot brighter, but let's not split hairs. I don't think that downloads are ready to take over just yet.

I can remember when VHS machines were the size of a coffee table, the remote was corded, and the tapes (TAPES!!!) were $100.

Me too, and they cost a ton at first. DVD was out of this world when they first came out as well.

I don't think a war is "required" for prices to fall, but lets be honest. No studio, or hardware mfg was 1)expecting, 2) wanting prices to fall as quickly as they did.

Maybe.

Sometimes when a ship is sinking, you may as well try and sink the other guy as well. It would be foolish to not consider personal pride, as well as a little vindictiveness to be working here. Set a price so low as to get consumers used to a $$ figure, and then let the other guy suck it up in the end.

But not if you're planning on getting on that boat for the ride home. Tosh may have just been trying to cut their losses. Why sit with thousand of players on the shelf collecting dust. Even if it cost them $200 each to make, getting $100 each back beats the h'll out of $0. Or they may have felt that putting their HD-DVD players in more homes would push up S/W demands and force studios to go HD-DVD. Then the loss may have been worth it. But it still feel that this move put off many hardware manufactures.

In effect, you are suggesting the BR mfgs were colluding to artificially keep prices high. If you have any documentation of this you need to forward to your nearest SEC, FBI, and Congress man. If that's the case, go Toshiba. Force prices lower.

I don't think Sony pushed there prices up. I think they just didn't artificially force prices down as Tosh did. Tosh went so low that none of the 3rd party hardware manufacturers could make a profit selling HD-DVD players. BR just didn't lower there prices as much. This way 3rd party manufactures will want to join the party. One of those 3rd parties may end up being Tosh.

Either way, BR has probably won this war. Now we shall see if its a phyricc victory (will physical formats rule supreme or not?)

It looks like they are winning this part of the war. Taking on DVD's may be a tougher road. Downloads may very well be the winner eventually. But not this year.

GMichael

01-08-2008, 12:30 PM

Ooops! Sorry to steal your thunder GM, I just started a thread on this topic!

No problem. We could use all the topics we can get around here.

Thanks for caring though. I owe you a green one.:ihih:

L.J.

01-08-2008, 12:51 PM

Feanor

01-08-2008, 12:54 PM

Woochifer

01-08-2008, 01:05 PM

I'm having a difficult time squaring "lack of competition" to "Lowering of disc prices". I would prefer many players in the market. I'm not particularly concerned about the pocket book of the studios involved.

Still plenty of competition in the market -- there are six major studios along with countless smaller ones producing titles and competing for your entertainment dollars. Having one HD format or two HD formats isn't going to change that equation. Plus, Blu-ray is still in competition with the DVD format, and successfully capturing market share from the DVD isn't going to happen until disc prices inevitably start falling. HD-DVD pushed hardware prices through the floor only because Toshiba was willing to lose money on its HD-DVD hardware.

I can remeber when VHS machines were the size of a coffee table, the remote was corded, and the tapes (TAPES!!!) were $100.

You're ignoring/disregarding how different the VHS pricing structure is from the DVD market.

VHS used a rental pricing structure. Most VHS movie titles, all the way until the format's demise, on the date of release carried a list price of $80 to $120 (i.e.,this is what the video store would charge you if you wanted to buy a new release or if you lost the tape), and the studios negotiated revenue sharing agreements with the larger video rental chains. Only titles with higher sell-through demand (e.g., big box office titles, Disney titles, music videos, special interest titles, etc.) were released with lower list prices. Most studio releases would get rereleased months later at lower prices for sell-through.

The DVD and Laserdisc markets have always been priced for retail sell-through. DVDs originally came out carrying the same ~$40 list prices as Laserdiscs. Only when volume picked up did the list prices come down to their current $30 (new release) and $20 (catalog title) price points. Only when retailers began using new release DVDs as loss leaders to pull shoppers into their stores did the home video market get turned upside down from a rental market into a buyer's market.

Sometimes when a ship is sinking, you may as well try and sink the other guy as well. It would be foolish to not consider personal pride, as well as a little vindictiveness to be working here. Set a price so low as to get consumers used to a $$ figure, and then let the other guy suck it up in the end.

Or in the case of Toshiba, they had a portfolio of DVD patents that they were looking to extend. I don't think they ever played this format war to win it outright -- they simply played it to run out the clock on the DVD patents and try to force the market into a dual format compromise. All they had to do was maintain a large enough market share to keep Blu-ray from claiming 100% support, and they would remain a player to be dealt with. Unfortunately for them, they had to subsidize their hardware and pay off a couple of studios just to keep their heads above water.

MS simply saw Toshiba as a convenient monkey wrench to thwart the HD optical disc market and force studios to adopt VC-1 while they went ahead with their HD downloading plans. With the studios now likely to rally behind Blu-ray, we'll see how it all plays out in the end. Personally, I think HD downloading will never replace disc media so long as they continue to adopt DRM-festooned schemes like the Xbox Live download files.

In effect, you are suggesting the BR mfgs were colluding to artificially keep prices high. If you have any documentation of this you need to forward to your nearest SEC, FBI, and Congress man. If thats the case, go Toshiba. Force prices lower.

Colluding is illegal, but so is product dumping. In the case of the DVD, you had off-brand Chinese manufacturers who were willing to dump boatloads of cheaply made product into the market. All that Blu-ray AND HD-DVD set out to do was create a new format that would include licensing terms designed to prevent off-brand outsource manufacturers from flooding the market with cheaply made hardware. Blu-ray kept their end of the bargain by being selective about who they would grant licenses to. HD-DVD was also selective, until Toshiba began negotiating with the same types of off-brand Chinese outsource manufacturers that they blamed for commodifying the DVD market, and began commodifying their own HD-DVD players.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-08-2008, 07:05 PM

Geez, what's with all the gloom? The complaining is just never gonna stop, is it? I've been reading at other sites and there are just hundreds and hundreds of posts of people attacking each other and fighting. It's not like they're gonna get a check at the end of the week or something(well, maybe SirT will). I knew this was going on, but never paid much attention to it. For some reason, I thought the war ending would be a good thing :rolleyes: I just don't see the problem. No one is being forced to jump into either format.

Hey, I am not going to get a check at the end of the week, I have one more week to go!! LOLOL Seriously, I get nothing for my support of bluray. I am just like you in this area, just somebody who loves the technology, embraces it enthusiastically, and do not mind talking about its benefits. Yes my company is a member of the BDA, yes my job positions me to hear some very confidential workings of Disney in the BDA, but really, I mix soundtracks, film scores, and friggin rock and roll, jazz, classical and gospel. The only real benefit I get for this war being over is that I do not have to support two formats just to fill my library with high definition movies I want.

Now when Universal goes blu, I will benefit directly. I get all of those review copies to keep after I review just like I do from MGM now. I drool at the prospect of reviewing JP1,2 and 3 in high def. Call me a cheap hi def whore if you wanna!

You get one red chicklet for this horrible comment. We are not pleased! LOL

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-08-2008, 07:15 PM

The correlation between lower production costs and lower prices is a loose one at best. It's competions that leads to price drops, not lower costs.

So on the hardware side, there will be livelier competion and price drops. But on the software side, it's not so clear -- after all, each movie or whatever that is released is unique to the publisher: there's no Spiderman vs. Spiderman competition. A quick drop in sofware prices isn't a foregone conclusion.

It didn't happen for CDs even though for most people CD was seen as a clean replacment for LPs. Ok, maybe price colusion was a problem in that case or maybe it wasn't the main thing. As for DVDs, they were such a huge improvement over tape that people see them as a clean replacement too. DVD prices dropped only after the publishers had skimmed the suckers, er, sorry, early adopters and decide more profit was to be made from volume.

When DVD came a long, all you need to get into it was a DVD player. But in the case of Blu-Ray, you also need an HDTV and they're a lot more than the players. Ergo, maybe for this reason the adoption cycle could be a lot longer than for DVD so the sucker-skimming phase will be accordingly longer.

Feanor,
I have purchased(and been given in some cases) over 340 titles from both formats since their inception. I have watched prices go from $30-37 over a year ago, to an average of $20-25 today. We are already seeing disc prices drop faster than they did with DVD in this point in its history. Being that I know how much is cost to author and replicate the Pirates series, and can tell you right now it is alot more expensive to do than DVD was early in its history. What they are doing on the discs are alot more sophisticated than DVD. The authoring tools for HDi and BD-j are still very expensive, and programmers for both still cost alot of money. I cannot see any studio gouging customers right now. It is still early in both formats history, and cost associated with producing titles must be driven down by economies of scale. That has not happened quite yet. However, with just one format now(and truely HD DVD life is over), the studio are quite aware that lowering disc prices will be essential for mass adoption. In reality, it is just too soon to expect the costs of bluray disc to be the same as DVD's to consumers. But as more consumer buy bluray discs, that will change pretty quickly.

bobsticks

01-08-2008, 08:26 PM

The correlation between lower production costs and lower prices is a loose one at best. It's competions that leads to price drops, not lower costs..

...you can't just look at the supply-side anymore. The advent of big box discount stores and Best Buy and the like has changed the nature of retail. And we are talking about retail.

Let me share my own situation and draw an analogy. I deal with pharmaceutical distribution (the legal kind). When Wal-mart, CVS, Walgreens, Meijer, and Target adopted a competitive pricing strategy on over three-hundred medications, in essence making them loss leaders, it was not necessarily when cost-to-retailer had dropped. The decision was made to target the needs of a specific demo and move toward the masses, especially appealing at a time when there are so many potential adopters. The move was pushed forward by the retailers seeking to strengthen overall market positions and acquiesced to by the manufacturers seeking to bolster lagging sales increases As an aside both sides recognized potential PR windfalls. Of course, none of this was done without careful planning on increased demands on production and supply and an effort to make a smooth transition (yeah, right).

Why would such large commercial entities work together to lower the cost to the consumer? You have to look at who benefits---most noticably the CEOs and stockholders--as it's hoped that universally that the increase in overall sales even at a lower margin will ultimately increase overall profit. That's a pretty attractive thing for those whose bonuses equal ten or twelce pairs of Apogees.

I see alot of parallels. CD is a dead format and DVD is, at best, stagnant. If the manufacturers feel that they can sell more units with marginalizd costs-to-retailer allthewhile lowering cost of production (as Terrence noted) they're gonna do it. If the retailers feel they can promote the product more effectively to sell their margin-product (for BB it's cables and warranties; Target it's canned corn and hairspray) through increased foot traffic, they're gonna do it, and they're going to pressure the manufacturers to accomodate their supply needs while expecting volume discounts.

And neither side is dumb enough not to have been doing major PR polls and testing---and it don't take a poll to open up one of these here forums and see that alot of folks stayed on the fence until the war was over...now it's time for watermellon.

At the end of the day everyone benefits from lower costs even in an artificial vacuum. What do I care if Biff gets a new set of Pings and Warren Worthington the 3rd buys a new Learjet? I got a great picture and a few audio formats outta the deal, and I'm betting that within five years BluRay will have a retail similar to that of current standard DVDs.

Now what I need you all to do is go buy some Prozac so I can get that tube preamp with the HT bypass that I want...

pixelthis

01-09-2008, 12:22 AM

Did you miss the part about me having a PS3 player. BR is good to go in my home.
But I do seem to remember you saying that downloading was going to be the winner. Hmmmm...

the future is vod, and downloading as well, the only market for future disc formats is
as an item for collectors.
ALSO as far as "upconverting" it can only be so good, you cant get resolution that wasnt there to begin with, aint no such thing as a free lunch.
AND I dont wanna hear about sir t's 30,000,000 scaler with a liquid hydrogen
cooling jacket around the supercomputer section.
In the real world a DVD is basically a 480i source, looks better when its deinterlaced
to 480p, but you will only get so much outta it:1:

pixelthis

01-09-2008, 12:25 AM

...you can't just look at the supply-side anymore. The advent of big box discount stores and Best Buy and the like has changed the nature of retail. And we are talking about retail.

Let me share my own situation and draw an analogy. I deal with pharmaceutical distribution (the legal kind). When Wal-mart, CVS, Walgreens, Meijer, and Target adopted a competitive pricing strategy on over three-hundred medications, in essence making them loss leaders, it was not necessarily when cost-to-retailer had dropped. The decision was made to target the needs of a specific demo and move toward the masses, especially appealing at a time when there are so many potential adopters. The move was pushed forward by the retailers seeking to strengthen overall market positions and acquiesced to by the manufacturers seeking to bolster lagging sales increases As an aside both sides recognized potential PR windfalls. Of course, none of this was done without careful planning on increased demands on production and supply and an effort to make a smooth transition (yeah, right).

Why would such large commercial entities work together to lower the cost to the consumer? You have to look at who benefits---most noticably the CEOs and stockholders--as it's hoped that universally that the increase in overall sales even at a lower margin will ultimately increase overall profit. That's a pretty attractive thing for those whose bonuses equal ten or twelce pairs of Apogees.

I see alot of parallels. CD is a dead format and DVD is, at best, stagnant. If the manufacturers feel that they can sell more units with marginalizd costs-to-retailer allthewhile lowering cost of production (as Terrence noted) they're gonna do it. If the retailers feel they can promote the product more effectively to sell their margin-product (for BB it's cables and warranties; Target it's canned corn and hairspray) through increased foot traffic, they're gonna do it, and they're going to pressure the manufacturers to accomodate their supply needs while expecting volume discounts.

And neither side is dumb enough not to have been doing major PR polls and testing---and it don't take a poll to open up one of these here forums and see that alot of folks stayed on the fence until the war was over...now it's time for watermellon.

At the end of the day everyone benefits from lower costs even in an artificial vacuum. What do I care if Biff gets a new set of Pings and Warren Worthington the 3rd buys a new Learjet? I got a great picture and a few audio formats outta the deal, and I'm betting that within five years BluRay will have a retail similar to that of current standard DVDs.

Now what I need you all to do is go buy some Prozac so I can get that tube preamp with the HT bypass that I want...

Sorry but since a certain pissant was chased off with his panties around his head I don't feel the need for mood altering drugs so badly, weather from a legal or illegal dealer.
Besides, you dont need a "tube" anything, the tech is totally obsolete:1:

drseid

01-09-2008, 04:36 AM

The correlation between lower production costs and lower prices is a loose one at best. It's competions that leads to price drops, not lower costs.

Agree 100% here. Production costs will indeed drop for BR as it continues to pick up steam now that HD DVD is all but finished, but that does not mean that those cost reductions will be passed on to the consumer. My guess is some will, but most will be kept as extra profit by the production companies.

---Dave

Feanor

01-09-2008, 04:52 AM

Feanor,
.... However, with just one format now(and truely HD DVD life is over), the studio are quite aware that lowering disc prices will be essential for mass adoption. In reality, it is just too soon to expect the costs of bluray disc to be the same as DVD's to consumers. But as more consumer buy bluray discs, that will change pretty quickly.

Thanks, Sir T. I know you know what you're talking about. I certainly hope the prices will soon ease down. That will work out fine for me since my CRT TV has to die before I upgrade to HD; maybe a year, maybe two by the look of it.

My more immediate concern is a universal player that can do M/C SACD, but the Oppo at $170 is a no-brainer for that.

kexodusc

01-09-2008, 05:05 AM

Thanks, Sir T. I know you know what you're talking about. I certainly hope the prices will soon ease down. That will work out fine for me since my CRT TV has to die before I upgrade to HD; maybe a year, maybe two by the look of it.

My more immediate concern is a universal player that can do M/C SACD, but the Oppo at $170 is a no-brainer for that.
Hmmm...where do you find this Oppo at?

Feanor

01-09-2008, 07:05 AM

Hmmm...where do you find this Oppo at?

Kex, you can get these direct from the manufacturer, (or distributor?); check it out the DV-980H ... http://www.oppodigital.com/dv980h/default.asp

US$169 with one year warranty. Of course, we Canadian resident will have to pay the usual brokerage and taxes, and likely duty.

This is for my HD set up where I listen to SACD M/C once in awhile. The Oppo ought to do me very well at the very least until I get an HDTV.

GMichael

01-09-2008, 07:07 AM

the future is vod, and downloading as well, the only market for future disc formats is
as an item for collectors.
ALSO as far as "upconverting" it can only be so good, you cant get resolution that wasnt there to begin with, aint no such thing as a free lunch.
AND I dont wanna hear about sir t's 30,000,000 scaler with a liquid hydrogen
cooling jacket around the supercomputer section.
In the real world a DVD is basically a 480i source, looks better when its deinterlaced
to 480p, but you will only get so much outta it:1:

The future? Sure. I'll bet downloading is the future. But I'm thinking it's a few years off before it takes over. And even when it does, I'll still have my collection to watch any time I like. That's a good thing. I could have download excesability in one room and my HD disc selection in another. The future is looking bright. :5:

My projector is 720p. No matter what my source, I'll still get 720p. One way or another, all 480, 720, 756, and 1080 signals are going to end up at 720p for me. But the upconverter on my HD-DVD player (as well as my PS3) do a better job of it than my projector does. Why wouldn't I want to take advantage of that?:idea:

kexodusc

01-09-2008, 07:11 AM

Kex, you can get these direct from the manufacturer, (or distributor?); check it out the DV-980H ... http://www.oppodigital.com/dv980h/default.asp

US$169 with one year warranty. Of course, we Canadian resident will have to pay the usual brokerage and taxes, and likely duty.

This is for my HD set up where I listen to SACD M/C once in awhile. The Oppo ought to do me very well at the very least until I get an HDTV.
Hmmm, think I'm sold...I assume you've done your homework, this thing is well regarded, etc? I have a Yammie changer that works fine but doesn't up-convert, and a decent, old Toshiba universal that doesn't upconvert and is very mediocre in the PQ department. Might be time to replace that unit.

Feanor

01-09-2008, 07:19 AM

Hmmm, think I'm sold...I assume you've done your homework, this thing is well regarded, etc? I have a Yammie changer that works fine but doesn't up-convert, and a decent, old Toshiba universal that doesn't upconvert and is very mediocre in the PQ department. Might be time to replace that unit.

Check out DV-980H reviews here (http://www.oppodigital.com/dv980h/dv980h_review.asp). Also, it was mentioned in a recent TAS with particular reference to the fact that it can pass native DSD via HDMI.

Rich-n-Texas

01-09-2008, 07:52 AM

The DV-980 is $169. direct from Oppo. And I'll tell ya, at that price it's almost worth it to have a dedicated CD player, dedicated SACD player AND a Blu-ray player.

Sorry, I'm a few posts behind...

BTW... I have VOD with my FIOS TV package, and although I've only really just tested the connection so far, the video is SD, and not very good SD at that. My D/L speed is 15Mb/s.

L.J.

01-09-2008, 02:59 PM

Umm....when are upcoming BR titles supposed to be announced? Didn't we get announcements at last years CES?

pixelthis

01-10-2008, 01:59 AM

The future? Sure. I'll bet downloading is the future. But I'm thinking it's a few years off before it takes over. And even when it does, I'll still have my collection to watch any time I like. That's a good thing. I could have download excesability in one room and my HD disc selection in another. The future is looking bright. :5:

My projector is 720p. No matter what my source, I'll still get 720p. One way or another, all 480, 720, 756, and 1080 signals are going to end up at 720p for me. But the upconverter on my HD-DVD player (as well as my PS3) do a better job of it than my projector does. Why wouldn't I want to take advantage of that?:idea:

the max resolution of ntsc is about 400 lines on a perfect system on a good day when the planets are lined up.
Doesnt matter how many LINES you have, you just wont get an increase in rez from "upconverting, this is HT 101.
My "upconverting" Samsung looks great also, but thats probably because the 720p
I have it outputting is more compatible with my sets native res..
The HDDVD and PS3 have the latest el-cheapo scaling tech , which is why they probably do a "better" job than your projector, the tech is progressing rapidly,
but you still wont get a better resolution than you put in.
It might be 720p, but that doesnt mean that it has the resolution of a true 720p picture.
Might have the HD color palete, that would help a great deal.
In other words, AINT NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH.
If you could upscale DVDS to HD resolution you wouldnt need BLU or HDDVD players
now, would you?:1:

GMichael

01-10-2008, 06:15 AM

the max resolution of ntsc is about 400 lines on a perfect system on a good day when the planets are lined up.
Doesnt matter how many LINES you have, you just wont get an increase in rez from "upconverting, this is HT 101.
My "upconverting" Samsung looks great also, but thats probably because the 720p
I have it outputting is more compatible with my sets native res..
The HDDVD and PS3 have the latest el-cheapo scaling tech , which is why they probably do a "better" job than your projector, the tech is progressing rapidly,
but you still wont get a better resolution than you put in.
It might be 720p, but that doesnt mean that it has the resolution of a true 720p picture.
Might have the HD color palete, that would help a great deal.
In other words, AINT NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH.
If you could upscale DVDS to HD resolution you wouldnt need BLU or HDDVD players
now, would you?:1:

You're right. Upscaling will never be as good as having an HD source to begin with. That's why I bought my PS3 and HD-DVD player.
When my source is not HD and I have a 720p display, then I really have no choice, do I?

BRANDONH

01-10-2008, 07:17 AM

I doubt it will matter but here it is for those of you so inclined

http://www.petitiononline.com/SAVEHDD/petition-sign.html

L.J.

01-10-2008, 08:14 AM

Perhaps the petition should be for Universal and Paramount to hurry up and go Blu so we could end this stupid war.

kexodusc

01-10-2008, 08:32 AM

Perhaps the petition should be for Universal and Paramount to hurry up and go Blu so we could end this stupid war.
Oooh...Where do I sign???

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-10-2008, 10:18 AM

I doubt it will matter but here it is for those of you so inclined

http://www.petitiononline.com/SAVEHDD/petition-sign.html

Brandon,
In all sincererity it is way too late for this. HD DVD days are numbered, and Toshiba knows this.

Sir Terrence the Terrible

01-10-2008, 11:30 AM

the max resolution of ntsc is about 400 lines on a perfect system on a good day when the planets are lined up.

That would be 480, not 400.

Doesnt matter how many LINES you have, you just wont get an increase in rez from "upconverting, this is HT 101.

The object is not to get more resolution, but to create a more smooth film like PQ without any loss of resolution.

The HDDVD and PS3 have the latest el-cheapo scaling tech , which is why they probably do a "better" job than your projector, the tech is progressing rapidly,
but you still wont get a better resolution than you put in.

El-cheapo is a rather poor choice of words to describe the scaling chips or algorythms in both HD DVD players and the PS3. The PS3 uses a scaling algorythm designed especially to work the the Cell processor. The great thing about this approach is the algorythm can be improved with a firmware update to continually tweak its performance. The A-35 and XA-2 use the HQV SO reon upscaling chip which is considered the best upscaling chips in the market. The Toshiba A1 and A2 use lesser upscaling chips since the maxium resolution of both of these is 1080i. El cheapo may better describe some of the upscaling chips in upconverting DVD players.

It might be 720p, but that doesnt mean that it has the resolution of a true 720p picture.
Might have the HD color palete, that would help a great deal.
In other words, AINT NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH.
If you could upscale DVDS to HD resolution you wouldnt need BLU or HDDVD players
now, would you?:1:

The color palette of upconverting remains the same as the source. SMPTE colorspace standards for SD and HD are very different. Just because a 480i source is upconverted to 1080i/p does not magically improve the colorspace, or change it.

pixelthis

01-10-2008, 11:40 PM

That would be 480, not 400.

actually its 380 in real word conditions(thats resolution, not lines)
Very few machines get 480, everybody I have talked to says that even with deinterlacing you're lucky to get 400 lines of resolution with DVD, even.
And of course, NTSC being interlaced the resolution is cut in half everytime theres movement, one of the biggest advantages to 480p is that its progressive' so it actually doubles the resolution, since you dont have this or other interlace bugaboos

The object is not to get more resolution, but to create a more smooth film like PQ without any loss of resolution.
the object is to get the best PQ possible , doesnt change the fact that "upscaling"
doesnt produce more resolution, and by "smoothing" the picture could actualy
reduce PQ.

El-cheapo is a rather poor choice of words to describe the scaling chips or algorythms in both HD DVD players and the PS3. The PS3 uses a scaling algorythm designed especially to work the the Cell processor. The great thing about this approach is the algorythm can be improved with a firmware update to continually tweak its performance. The A-35 and XA-2 use the HQV SO reon upscaling chip which is considered the best upscaling chips in the market. The Toshiba A1 and A2 use lesser upscaling chips since the maxium resolution of both of these is 1080i. El cheapo may better describe some of the upscaling chips in upconverting DVD players.

el cheapo is just a term used to describe just about any built in scaling scheme,
doesnt mean they are bad, indeed they are getting better, but the only way for true scaling is with a seperate scaler, which is certainly NOT el cheapo

The color palette of upconverting remains the same as the source. SMPTE colorspace standards for SD and HD are very different. Just because a 480i source is upconverted to 1080i/p does not magically improve the colorspace, or change it.

It depends, I had a reference panasonic DVD when DVDAUDIO came out , a very nice unit, and when you choose 480p (progressive) you could choose what they called HD color palate, dont know if this was vaporware or not but the color was the best I had ever seen in a standard DVD player.
Not an expert on this but 480p is one of the HD standards (atsc standards anyway) so it seems that this wouldnt be a problem
:1: