As reported by BDA & news from IFA

[Mr Peabody]

BDA says that Blu-ray software is out selling HD-DVD by 67% in the U.S. and by higher numbers worldwide.

According to reports from IFA Warner did not attend the HD-DVD press conference but did attend BDA's. Warner vowed to put out more Blu-ray titles in the 4th quarter than they did in the previously 3 quarters combined. Wow, could this tip the scales back from the Paramount buy off?

Hitachi has a Blu-ray camcorder hitting in October.

Acer has joined the BDA.

HD-DVD landed a solid blow but it seems Blu-ray wasn't stunned. I hope if you all find other news on the war, for either side, you will contribute. I hate to keep starting new threads on this but we really don't have any way to compile the various news bits and I don't want pertinent info buried in an already started thread.

[Woochifer]

I think Warner just had more to announce with their Blu-ray plans, since speculation has been running rampant regarding their future HD plans. For one thing, they still have a lot of titles already out on HD-DVD that have not yet come out on Blu-ray.

Just yesterday, a LA Times article on the format war caused all sorts of buzzing around the various home theater discussions because it implied that Toshiba's discussing financial terms to lure Warner into dropping Blu-ray and going HD-DVD exclusive. Today though, Bill Hunt of The Digital Bits confirmed with a Warner Home Video rep that the LA Times info is three weeks old. Apparently, Toshiba entered into discussions with Warner at the same time they were talking to Paramount/Dreamworks. Paramount/Dreamworks took Toshiba's offer, while Warner rejected it.

I think Warner still sees more benefit to playing both sides, and they still have their TotalHD hybrid disc introduction coming up next year. If Warner drops Blu-ray, then they would also wind up dumping their own proprietary hybrid format before it even comes to market and give up a significant portion of their current 40% share of the HD disc market. At this point, I think Warner sees more dollar signs by steering the market towards a hybrid solution, since they would be in position to collect licensing fees from every disc sold if major studios wind up adopting the TotalHD format as a compromise.

You want speculation? How about Warner partnering up with Universal, Fox, and/or Disney in support of TotalHD? That could potentially ice the format war, and put considerable pressure on Paramount/Dreamworks and even Sony to drop their exclusivity. I think Warner's got their own plans cooking, and they know that they hold a lot of sway as to which direction this format war goes.

Some other Blu-ray news that came out of IFA included JVC displaying their Blu-ray prototype, and Sharp introducing their own Blu-ray player that they will market under the AQUOS label (the first non-LCD TV product that will be marketed as part of the AQUOS lineup). The Sharp player looks interesting because apparently, they designed and built most of the internal components themselves, and one of the features of that player is a 10-second menu boot-up time.

[Mr Peabody]

I wonder how the hybrid will work, will it have BR on one side and HD-DVD on the other? Will the hybrid have any effect on the storage capability which is BR's one big benefit? I personally would love to see them put out the hybrid and all the studios jump on it. That way no consumer will lose. It would be a miracle for any of the big corps to yield to their greed and give up the exclusivity but think of the good will. The hybrid could be the one time the consumer might actually win.

[musicman1999]

Nice idea but would they let us win one.I wonder if there would be a problem with thickness of the discs like the DualDisc seemed to have.

bill

[nightflier]

Some other Blu-ray news that came out of IFA included JVC displaying their Blu-ray prototype, and Sharp introducing their own Blu-ray player that they will market under the AQUOS label (the first non-LCD TV product that will be marketed as part of the AQUOS lineup). The Sharp player looks interesting because apparently, they designed and built most of the internal components themselves, and one of the features of that player is a 10-second menu boot-up time.

First of all, I want to tip my hat to Sharp for being the first company to address the single most annoying problem with either HD format: long boot ups. If I wanted to wait that long, I'd watch the #$@%$# movie on my computer!

I think if Sharp markets their player with the Aquos name, they will have a huge advantage. Almost every review about the Aquos displays is positive (with the exception of the banding issue). What this means is that they will bring a player to market with a name that is already associated with performance, quality, and high-fi. Equally important is that every Aquos TV owner will want the associated Aquos player. If they offer a feature that gives the combo a performance advantage over competing players (maybe a true HDMI 1.3 link between the two?), then they will also provide a real advantage to their loyal customers.

Now if that player also includes SACD playback, I'll get off the fence and buy one too!

[PeruvianSkies]

Nice idea but would they let us win one.I wonder if there would be a problem with thickness of the discs like the DualDisc seemed to have.

bill

Those damn DualDiscs...they were so quirky on any machine I put them into.

[Mr Peabody]

It's interesting that Sharp, Samsung & Toshiba were known as cheap or entry level gear until putting out high quality TV's. Now will the quality spill over into the rest of the products.

Sharp has the most to prove in my book. Maybe this BR player will be the step in the right direction.

I had my doubts about Samsung. Their first upscaling DVD players weren't that great but I've been impressed with their BR player. I'm miffed they don't answer their emails though.

Toshiba, I don't know about. I haven't heard anything negative about the HD-DVD players reliability.

I think the BR loading issue is blown out of proportion carried over from the first gen players. Compared to my Denon 1600, the Samsung BD-P1200 is just as fast.

[pixelthis]

First of all, I want to tip my hat to Sharp for being the first company to address the single most annoying problem with either HD format: long boot ups. If I wanted to wait that long, I'd watch the #$@%$# movie on my computer!

I think if Sharp markets their player with the Aquos name, they will have a huge advantage. Almost every review about the Aquos displays is positive (with the exception of the banding issue). What this means is that they will bring a player to market with a name that is already associated with performance, quality, and high-fi. Equally important is that every Aquos TV owner will want the associated Aquos player. If they offer a feature that gives the combo a performance advantage over competing players (maybe a true HDMI 1.3 link between the two?), then they will also provide a real advantage to their loyal customers.

Now if that player also includes SACD playback, I'll get off the fence and buy one too!

Thats what you're doing, basically.
Every DVD , and now HD players, are basically computers.
A lot of the super cheap DVD players have computer dvd play only drives, not much market for those now that dvd burners are so cheap.
Anyway, wonder just how much more bad news the HDDVD camp will have to get before
they finally accept the inevitable.
I bet Toshiba has already figured it out, they are just trying to squeak out of their self created mess with as many fingers and toes as possible:1:

[nightflier]

Pixel, just as I told Wooch, this isn't over by a long shot - calling one side the winner is only bellowing on the flames of war, right at a time that there could be a breakthrough in both sides working together on a dual-format. For the consumer, that is still the preferable option.

What is remarkable is that neither Toshiba nor Microsoft is throwing in the towel. And they certainly have a lot of people working for them to give them info that we simple folk don't have - maybe they know something we don't. I expect this format war to carry on for some time and maybe even until both formats are eclipsed by something else like HD downloads.

Right now, it looks like BR is going to follow in the footsteps of SACD and HD-DVD the path of DVD-A. But at this point, both formats are such a small portion of the overall movie sales market, that a reversal is still quite possible without upsetting the industry too much. We can't discount the price-advantage that HD-DVD has, and this could be crucial - if the price difference also becomes a factor in the individual disks, it could very well pull ahead. Or what if one of the major studios shifted sides suddenly? It's not like there isn't a lot of shifting going on, right now.

Bottom line, anything is still possible because both formats are still marginal.

[Mr Peabody]

Toshiba's cheap price hasn't seemed to help them thus far. It's true though, we have no idea what is being worked on, and the war isn't over until it's over.

[pixelthis]

Toshiba's cheap price hasn't seemed to help them thus far. It's true though, we have no idea what is being worked on, and the war isn't over until it's over.
Its over.
Be great if both could surrive, more choices for the consumer, but there really is no reason to have two HD dvd DISCS.
A hybrid player would be easy, probably just have to refocus the laser for the thicker
coating on the HDDVD, but theres really no reason for such a thing.
People with HDDVD will join those with DIVIX and Cartrigevision, and laserdisc
(Ihave several thousand thousand dollars worth of those)
On the bright side you wont have spent too much on your player and software.
So its a good thing that this format war be over early.
HDDVD is a dinosaur, and that light over the horizon is where the asteroid hit:1:

[PeruvianSkies]

Its over.
Be great if both could surrive, more choices for the consumer, but there really is no reason to have two HD dvd DISCS.
A hybrid player would be easy, probably just have to refocus the laser for the thicker
coating on the HDDVD, but theres really no reason for such a thing.
People with HDDVD will join those with DIVIX and Cartrigevision, and laserdisc
(Ihave several thousand thousand dollars worth of those)
On the bright side you wont have spent too much on your player and software.
So its a good thing that this format war be over early.
HDDVD is a dinosaur, and that light over the horizon is where the asteroid hit:1:

If it's over, then why is it still going on? I've been rooting for Blu-ray since the beginning, just 'cause it sounds cooler, but now I am almost tempted to wish for HD-DVD to win, just to shut you up.

[Mr Peabody]

I just think the dual discs would be a good compromise and it would be nice if no consumer had to lose this time. Just because people have laser discs, DVD-A, Mini disc, or whatever, is no reason this type of penalty has to continue to be paid by early adoptors who happens to choose the wrong format.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

If it's over, then why is it still going on? I've been rooting for Blu-ray since the beginning, just 'cause it sounds cooler, but now I am almost tempted to wish for HD-DVD to win, just to shut you up.

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

1. In order to optimize video encoding for both formats encoding has to be done seperately. Doing this is very expensive, and one of the reasons Paramount went to HD DVD exclusive recently. It was the cheaper of the two platforms to encode and replicate for. In the short run this was a wise decision as this limits their exposure to HDM cost wise while the market is still pretty small. In the long run it is a huge mistake because you leave income from the largest player base on the table. The peak bitrates of both formats are not the same. You could never use the encoding from Pirates of the Carribean on Bluray on HD DVD. The video bitrate goes way over HD DVD specifications. Now one could argue that VC-1 wouldn't need a bitrate over the HD DVD standard, but Disney would definately argue you down if you are looking for ultimate video transparency.

2. Retailers and manufacturers are pissed about this format war. Retail stores are forced to make room for both formats which digs into their money makers floor space. That would be DVD. Blockbuster, Best buy, Walmart, Target, have already decided that their floor space would be either mostly, or all dedicated to Bluray. I am sure before too long alot of other retailers will also make that decision. That is because profit margins are higher on bluray than on HD DVD. This is a mistake on the part of Toshiba's in that they raced their player prices to the bottom too quickly. Stores just do not make enough profit on their players to justify the shelf space so Toshiba has to buy encaps to make up for that fact. For Manufacturers, the whole object of HD players is to increase their profits over DVD players(which yields them very little these days). With Toshiba having three players below $500, and one above that amount, it leaves no one else but toshiba to make profits because the prices are so low already. Venturer has announced a cheaper standalone player than toshiba cheapest player, but everyone knows that player with be at the same quality as a Apex DVD player, and they have to sell millions of them to turn a decent profit overall. Onyko has to wonder if they are going to sell a decent amount of their players to turn a profit in a market so driven by low prices. As a constrast, every bluray player makes a manufacturer a nice profit. That is why player prices are higher, and there are many more manufacturers making bluray players. What all manufacturers WANT to see is a single format, which allows for quicker adoption, sells more players, and keeps profits high for a while.

3. Consumer are confused as hell with both formats. Nobody wants a brick if they choose the wrong format. So you buy nothing, and wait to see somebody else buy the brick. This slows down the adoption rate, and may just kill off both formats because of lack of sufficient sales.

4. Studio support is about even amoung the money makers. However right now catalog titles are not selling very well, and HD DVD has the most catalog titles released. Catalogs value will not materialize until after each format matures. So the big bucks come from day and date releases, which HD DVD will only have to majors up to the holiday season. Almost all of Bluray releases will be day and date with their DVD counterpart which should guarantee the format will do well over the holiday season. I know for a fact there will be no further movement this year by any studio, and quite frankly was surprised at Paramounts move. When I talk to my friends who work at the studio(I was an employee there for 10 years) in their home entertainment department, they too were surprised as well as they love working with bluray, and where preparing titles that had features unique to the format. This lets me know that the decision came from the parent company, and not Paramount itself no matter what is said in the press.

No matter what we think as consumers, we are not going to make the decision about who wins. That ultimately will be made by the Studios based on the sales performance of their titles. At this stage a Warner defection to Bluray would be the kiss of death to HD DVD. And with weekly sales ration very close to 2:1 favor for bluray, this christmas will be critical for both formats.

Based on the information that I have gleaned over the last year from a variety of sources both within the industry, and outside the industry, Bluray was MY choice. I bought my HD DVD player first, and collected 131 titles within 6 months. When I realized that all of the films that I really like are bluray exclusives I bought a PS3 based on my needs, its flexibility, upgradability, features and price. That was four months ago, and I have replaced 175 of my DVD titles with Bluray upgrades. So as you can see I am pretty invested in both at this stage. I have purchased bluray titles only in the last four months. I do plan on getting Transformers and Shrek the Third on HD DVD, but that is about it for this year. My pre-order list for bluray is up to 40 titles till the end of the year and growing by the week.

Based on overall support bluray has it all of the way. From the studios, to retail and manufacturing. They have so much support that in the long run I think it has the legs to win the war. That's just MY OPINION. This whole war has turn the internet AV sites into a polarizing mess, and has just made visiting so many sites a very unpleasant thing. I want it to end soon....sooner than yesterday, and quicker than tomorrow. Reality will not grant me my wish though.

[PeruvianSkies]

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.



Yeah, well we have this little troll problem around here since you left months ago, so I am just doing my duty by spraying some troll repellent every now and again. My signature is from The Office. I agree this stupid war is NOT over no matter how many times Pixelthis says that it is. We are talking about two huge companies with loads of resources that are going to battle this out for several more rounds of this fight. And the crucial thing is that this is a war where the winner might not even be the one that offers the superior product, but the one that fought harder in the war.

[drseid]

Wow, that flash(momentary display of strong emotion)was bright enough to burn my eyes out!!!! I dig your signature LOL

While this stupid war is not over, its end is going to happen sooner rather than later, this I can assure you. The two will not coexist like the PS3 and Xbox do in the gaming industry. This is for several reasons.

1. In order to optimize video encoding for both formats encoding has to be done seperately. You could never use the encoding from Pirates of the Carribean on Bluray on HD DVD. The video bitrate goes way over HD DVD specifications. Now one could argue that VC-1 wouldn't need a bitrate over the HD DVD standard, but Disney would definately argue you down if you are looking for ultimate video transparency.

2. Retailers and manufacturers are pissed about this format war. Retail stores are forced to make room for both formats which digs into their money makers floor space. That would be DVD. Blockbuster, Best buy, Walmart, Target, have already decided that their floor space would be either mostly, or all dedicated to Bluray. I am sure before too long alot of other retailers will also make that decision. That is because profit margins are higher on bluray than on HD DVD. This is a mistake on the part of Toshiba's in that they raced their player prices to the bottom too quickly. Stores just do not make enough profit on their players to justify the shelf space so Toshiba has to buy encaps to make up for that fact. For Manufacturers, the whole object of HD players is to increase their profits over DVD players(which yields them very little these days). With Toshiba having three players below $500, and one above that amount, it leaves no one else but toshiba to make profits because the prices are so low already. Venturer has announced a cheaper standalone player than toshiba cheapest player, but everyone knows that player with be at the same quality as a Apex DVD player, and they have to sell millions of them to turn a decent profit overall.

3. Consumer are confused as hell with both formats. Nobody wants a brick if they choose the wrong format. So you buy nothing, and wait to see somebody else buy the brick. This slows down the adoption rate, and may just kill off both formats because of lack of sufficient sales.

4. Studio support is about even amoung the money makers. However right now catalog titles are not selling very well, and HD DVD has the most catalog titles released. Catalogs value will not materialize until after each format matures. So the big bucks come from day and date releases, which HD DVD will only have to majors up to the holiday season. Almost all of Bluray releases will be day and date with their DVD counterpart which should guarantee the format will do well over the holiday season. I know for a fact there will be no further movement this year by any studio, and quite frankly was surprised at Paramounts move. When I talk to my friends who work at the studio(I was an employee there for 10 years) in their home entertainment department, they too were surprised as well as they love working with bluray, and where preparing titles that had features unique to the format. This lets me know that the decision came from the parent company, and not Paramount itself no matter what is said in the press.

No matter what we think as consumers, we are not going to make the decision about who wins. That ultimately will be made by the Studios based on the sales performance of their titles. At this stage a Warner defection to Bluray would be the kiss of death to HD DVD. And with weekly sales ration very close to 2:1 favor for bluray, this christmas will be critical for both formats.

Based on the information that I have gleaned over the last year from a variety of sources both within the industry, and outside the industry, Bluray was MY choice.

Based on overall support bluray has it all of the way.

Good points Sir T...

Here are my responses (I shortened several of your quoted points to save space, but all your points were well argued in full...):

1. I think you can indeed have 1 encode for both (as WB has shown in many cases). VC-1 is the way to go, IMO. The reason why we don't is not because of optimal bitrates, but rather royalties for Sony. With duplicate VC-1 encodes, both formats will look equally good with no deterioration in quality for either from the "optimal" encodes Sony claims.

2. No argument on the retailers being pissed (I think we can add the consumers too)... As for the profit margins, I am also sure you are right in saying Blu-ray has a higher margin on standalones... they also have a smaller sell-through rate on these. Most folks using Blu-ray have bought the PS3, and that is hardly a margin king (although the games sure are).

As for Toshiba cutting off others from making a profit by lowering the cost of the players... Maybe you are right... But that has not stopped Venturer, nor has it stopped the new Chinese players from getting in on the game. I would not underestimate the power of low price with the average consumer. I think these Chinese players could be key to HD DVD's success (or failure). Once a certain market share potential is reached, the other players like Panasonic et al will jump on board and create higher quality players for video and audio enthusiasts... until then the Venturers of the world will get Joe6pack to come onboard.

3. I agree with the exception of killing off both formats. I am firmly in the camp that says both will be around for a *long* time to come. I don't see either dying off in the forseeable future.

4. While I too have gone on record as saying I was shocked at Paramount's move... I also confess to being quite happy at the news (as I am primarily in HD DVD's camp even though I own and buy both formats). In the case of Warner, I agree it would be a big blow to HD DVD if they went BR exclusive, but the word on the street is after the holidays, they are highly likely to go the other way. I would say it would be equally damaging to BR if this occured. I guess we will see, but I would not be shocked at all to see Warner firmly as an HD exclusive studio in January or February of next year (definitely not this year though). Personally if I were putting odds on a format having the upper hand based on studio support, I would now say HD DVD may have the upper hand. If Warner decides to stay neutral after the holidays, then we are in as much of a stalemate as we are in now.

I guess the bottom line is there are a lot of unknown variables right now. Way too many to call this either way. I believe both will coexist, but we shall see. This holiday season is key to answering many questions...

---Dave

[nightflier]

I know this has been said before, but I for one am pissed that I can't buy any title on either format. That's why I'm still exclusively on DVD. I can buy any title and I know it will play on my player. Heck, if it's still a stalemate in January 2008, I might just buy that Oppo upconverting DVD player, rather than take my chances with a "brick."

I'm going to guess that 90% of consumers, like myself, are irritated enough at this war that they will wait this out for quite some time. Given how people have less to spend today than they have in a long time, they will probably wonder if they really need to make the move to HD or BR, even over the x-mas season. If a studio is going to make a move, they better do it before the holidays.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Good points Sir T...

Here are my responses (I shortened several of your quoted points to save space, but all your points were well argued in full...):

Go ahead, take a bite out of me. LOL


1. I think you can indeed have 1 encode for both (as WB has shown in many cases). VC-1 is the way to go, IMO. The reason why we don't is not because of optimal bitrates, but rather royalties for Sony. With duplicate VC-1 encodes, both formats will look equally good with no deterioration in quality for either from the "optimal" encodes Sony claims.

I do not think the bluray camp is convinced that VC-1 is all that. Sony, and I know Disney for sure really like AVC. I personally like AVC better based on a demo I attended at Buena Vista studios. The Disney engineers didn't seem all that impressed with VC-1 as they seem to think that VC-1 does too much smoothing after encoding. Also keep in mind that Microsoft get's royalties for VC-1 which why you probably will never see a Sony bluray product using VC-1. Disney likes to use high bitrates for their encoding as to them the picture seems more natural, and less digital looking. Microsoft seems to promote lower bitrates on VC-1, and that doesn't quite square with what Disney is looking for.


2. No argument on the retailers being pissed (I think we can add the consumers too)... As for the profit margins, I am also sure you are right in saying Blu-ray has a higher margin on standalones... they also have a smaller sell-through rate on these. Most folks using Blu-ray have bought the PS3, and that is hardly a margin king (although the games sure are).

That is a Sony issue only. From talking with Paidgeek from Bluray.com Sony is selling the PS3 to retailers so they make a small(very small) profit from the PS3. Sony appears to be taking the loss themselves. This is the reason retailers do not mind devoting a good size space for the PS3. If they didn't make a profit from it, then you would only see it offered on the retailers website, much like HD DVD players are on Walmarts and Targets but not in their stores. It seems lately that sales of standalones seems to be going bluray way as well. I think that its largely because of the visible floor space devoted to bluray as opposed to HD DVD.


As for Toshiba cutting off others from making a profit by lowering the cost of the players... Maybe you are right... But that has not stopped Venturer, nor has it stopped the new Chinese players from getting in on the game. I would not underestimate the power of low price with the average consumer. I think these Chinese players could be key to HD DVD's success (or failure). Once a certain market share potential is reached, the other players like Panasonic et al will jump on board and create higher quality players for video and audio enthusiasts... until then the Venturers of the world will get Joe6pack to come onboard.

I think anyone who has bought a cheap DVD player knows that the quality just isn't there. My best friend went through 4 apex DVD players in less than a year. He has stated no more cheap chinese players in his house. I have heard this from quite a few folks. So I do not really think cheap low quality players are going to be HD DVD saving grace, especially considering they do not have full studio support. A cheap player only makes sense when you can purchase movies from ALL of the studios. Keep in mind, HD DVD has always been cheaper than bluray, however a cheap price hasn't landed more players in the field versus bluray. Studio commitment is really VERY important when you use price as a talking point. At this point cheap chinese players are vaporware since there has been no official announcement of there release. The Venturers will NOT be sold in Walmart or Target, and unsure whether Best Buy will carry them. This makes it difficult to guage whether they will sell in sufficiently large numbers to make a difference this holiday season.


3. I agree with the exception of killing off both formats. I am firmly in the camp that says both will be around for a *long* time to come. I don't see either dying off in the forseeable future.

From my sources inside several studios make me believe differently. First, it is stupid to market two formats that essentially do the same thing. There is no history of any disc based media that do indentical things coexisting. When DVD was introduced, Laserdisc died very quickly. When beta and VHS slugged it out, the consumer chose VHS, and the pro's chose beta. Disney has already said they will not support both, Sony and Fox has also said the same. Not one studio has committed to long term support of both. I believe based on my sources that this holiday season will be critical for both camps. If the HD DVD camp sells as many players as predicted, you will see SOME studio's make a move. If bluray increases its sales lead beyond 2:1(well beyond) I know at least two studios will make a move in their direction.


4. While I too have gone on record as saying I was shocked at Paramount's move... I also confess to being quite happy at the news (as I am primarily in HD DVD's camp even though I own and buy both formats). In the case of Warner, I agree it would be a big blow to HD DVD if they went BR exclusive, but the word on the street is after the holidays, they are highly likely to go the other way. I would say it would be equally damaging to BR if this occured. I guess we will see, but I would not be shocked at all to see Warner firmly as an HD exclusive studio in January or February of next year (definitely not this year though). Personally if I were putting odds on a format having the upper hand based on studio support, I would now say HD DVD may have the upper hand. If Warner decides to stay neutral after the holidays, then we are in as much of a stalemate as we are in now.

I think your word on the streets is not accurate at all. Warner is making a profit doing both formats, but they are not going to commit to doing this long term. Warner is going to look at software sales to see where the most sales are made. Titles they have released to both formats already has shown to favor bluray at a 2:1 clip, 300 had a wider ratio and still selling well on bluray. Facts do not support your contention that HD DVD has the upper hand in studio support. When you look world wide, you will find more studio's support bluray than HD DVD, especially within the european market where there has been several studios that went neutral as a result of bluray's larger player base. Here in the states you have Sony, Disney, Fox and Lionsgate in the bluray camp exclusive. Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks exclusive to HD DVD. Weinstein and Warner are neutral. Paramount and Universal are somewhat hampered by the fact they cannot release any Steven Spielberg directed titles, or any titles produced solely by Amblin Pictures. This also goes for Cappola titles as well. If Steven becomes unhappy with the way Paramount is handling Dreamworks, he has the right to shop the studio around to other bidders. This is pretty binding for both studio as some big sales are lost in the agreement. HD DVD has no presence in Japan to speak of, little or none in Australia, and got killed in Europe over the past several months by the PS3 effect. Don't think the studio are not looking at world wide player penitration of players.

I would also like to add that it doesn't make much sense to pay Paramount $150 million dollars to quit supporting bluray if Warner intended on going HD DVD exclusive in 2008. They could have kept the money and gained a studio. This action tells me that someone in the HD DVD camp could be going neutral at the beginning of the year, not someone going exclusive to them. The fact that the HD DVD PG courted Warner with a rather large offer, and was rebuffed points to the fact that Warner doesn't want to leave a single dollar on the table.



I guess the bottom line is there are a lot of unknown variables right now. Way too many to call this either way. I believe both will coexist, but we shall see. This holiday season is key to answering many questions...

---Dave

Dave, you are correct. I however believe some things are taking shape that work towards deciding a winner. While I have a strong preference for bluray, I am not allowing my preference to cloud the facts, my knowledge of the industry I have worked in for 25 years, or my good common sense. In other words, I am not a rabid fanboy(or a unrabid one either LOL)

[bobsticks]

Good to see Sir T 'round these parts again.

I too have adopted the HD-DVD but will probably focus more on Blue-Ray. I became a bit disappointed by the overall selection and my XBOX's player needed updates to play certain titles (combo discs). I found both issues an annoyance.

I'm not ready to call the battle either. I will say that as an all-too-enthusiastic consumer I spend a fair amount of time in retail stores. I have yet to hear anyone comment on how overwhelmingly superior the HD-DVD catalogue was. I suspect the holidays may prove to be a huge push for Blue-Ray/PS3 hardware.

[Mr Peabody]

Warner announced at the BDA press conference during IFA that they plan to release more Blu-ray titles in the 4th quarter of this year than the previous 3 quarters put together. This doesn't seem like a move made by a company about to dump a format.

At first I didn't think the Chinese HD-DVD cheapos would make a difference but then when you look at the price of most entry level DVD players today, you can get a name brand for under $200.00. But price has surprisingly not played a big factor in the war.

[PeruvianSkies]

Here comes words of shear wisdom....

[pixelthis]

I know this has been said before, but I for one am pissed that I can't buy any title on either format. That's why I'm still exclusively on DVD. I can buy any title and I know it will play on my player. Heck, if it's still a stalemate in January 2008, I might just buy that Oppo upconverting DVD player, rather than take my chances with a "brick."

I'm going to guess that 90% of consumers, like myself, are irritated enough at this war that they will wait this out for quite some time. Given how people have less to spend today than they have in a long time, they will probably wonder if they really need to make the move to HD or BR, even over the x-mas season. If a studio is going to make a move, they better do it before the holidays.

That option is looking better and better every day.
Either blu or hddvd, both formats are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, and while an "upconverting" player won't increase resolution they tend to have a pretty good
picture.
After christmas toshiba will assess and fold.
This isn't like an audio format, there are hugh costs to mounting a video format.
Most in the industry and have decided on Blu-ray, and it will be the winner.
If you want to invest in one Blu is a safe bet, EVERYBODY is backing this one,
and it will be obvious even to self appointed "troll killer" with the thick skull that its pretty much over for HDDVD(TROLL defined as anyone who disagrees with him, BTW):1:

[PeruvianSkies]

Here comes words of shear wisdom....


....or not. Seems that someone doesn't know the definition of the word TROLL.

FROM WIKIPEDIA
An Internet troll, or simply troll in Internet slang, is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an online community such as an online discussion forum or USENET, with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response.[1]

You know like saying that my speakers are junk and that my system is poor, etc etc. Or saying that Blu-ray has already won or that LCD is superior to anything else, etc etc.

[pixelthis]

....or not. Seems that someone doesn't know the definition of the word TROLL.

FROM WIKIPEDIA
An Internet troll, or simply troll in Internet slang, is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an online community such as an online discussion forum or USENET, with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response.[1]

You know like saying that my speakers are junk and that my system is poor, etc etc. Or saying that Blu-ray has already won or that LCD is superior to anything else, etc etc.

You see, this shows your basic lack of understanding of the English language.
I said that LCD will be the display standard, that it will replace the CRT as the main
type of display, and in many respects that has already happened.
Doesn't mean its better, just means its more popular.
VHS sucked compared to BETA, still won its "format war".
Audiophiles and videophiles go for something called "PQ", they are the ONLY ones who do.
Why do you think that in the mall 90% of the stores are shoe and clothes stores?
And that most cater to women?
Because they control the purse strings, and as long as they think "flat panels" are stylish, nothing else will have much of a chance.
As for quality LCD does have a decent picture, the differences in quality with other type displays are small.
And I never said that your system was "junk", just that you were rather ignorant of certain realities that shaped the construction of your gear,
and like most in this hobby these days, the quality of your gear was rather unbalanced.
Its a waste of money for "rich in texas" to be running B&W speakers with a low to midline receiver, he'd be better off with a cheaper set,
because the potential of his speakers aren't being realized, so why pay for it?
Likewise the price range of some of your gear is rather disparete, if you are on a long upgrade path, great, some of your nicer stuff is waiting to
"catch up" with upgrades in other areas.
But I think that you would be better served with equipment more closely matched is all.
You're wasting potential if a neat piece of gear is matched to lower line stuff, and you are still paying for that potential.
So why pay for what you're not using?
SPEAKERS are the most important part of a system, should cost as much as the other stuff combined, at least.
But if your prices are correct than you don't have near enough speaker for ten grand worth of gear.
But that is just my OPINON after all (don't wanna be labeled a Troll or something)

[PeruvianSkies]

You see, this shows your basic lack of understanding of the English language.
I said that LCD will be the display standard, that it will replace the CRT as the main
type of display, and in many respects that has already happened.
Doesn't mean its better, just means its more popular.
VHS sucked compared to BETA, still won its "format war".
Audiophiles and videophiles go for something called "PQ", they are the ONLY ones who do.
Why do you think that in the mall 90% of the stores are shoe and clothes stores?
And that most cater to women?

Please enlighten me on the English language.

[pixelthis]

Please enlighten me on the English language.
At my age there simply isn't enough time:(

[PeruvianSkies]

At my age there simply isn't enough time:(

What a shame.

[drseid]

I do not think the bluray camp is convinced that VC-1 is all that. Sony, and I know Disney for sure really like AVC. Also keep in mind that Microsoft get's royalties for VC-1 which why you probably will never see a Sony bluray product using VC-1.


That is a Sony issue only. From talking with Paidgeek from Bluray.com Sony is selling the PS3 to retailers so they make a small(very small) profit from the PS3. Sony appears to be taking the loss themselves. It seems lately that sales of standalones seems to be going bluray way as well. I think that its largely because of the visible floor space devoted to bluray as opposed to HD DVD.



I think anyone who has bought a cheap DVD player knows that the quality just isn't there. Keep in mind, HD DVD has always been cheaper than bluray, however a cheap price hasn't landed more players in the field versus bluray. Studio commitment is really VERY important when you use price as a talking point. At this point cheap chinese players are vaporware since there has been no official announcement of there release. The Venturers will NOT be sold in Walmart or Target, and unsure whether Best Buy will carry them. This makes it difficult to guage whether they will sell in sufficiently large numbers to make a difference this holiday season.



I think your word on the streets is not accurate at all. Warner is making a profit doing both formats, but they are not going to commit to doing this long term. Warner is going to look at software sales to see where the most sales are made. Titles they have released to both formats already has shown to favor bluray at a 2:1 clip, 300 had a wider ratio and still selling well on bluray. Facts do not support your contention that HD DVD has the upper hand in studio support. When you look world wide, you will find more studio's support bluray than HD DVD, especially within the european market where there has been several studios that went neutral as a result of bluray's larger player base. Don't think the studio are not looking at world wide player penitration of players.

I would also like to add that it doesn't make much sense to pay Paramount $150 million dollars to quit supporting bluray if Warner intended on going HD DVD exclusive in 2008. They could have kept the money and gained a studio. This action tells me that someone in the HD DVD camp could be going neutral at the beginning of the year, not someone going exclusive to them. The fact that the HD DVD PG courted Warner with a rather large offer, and was rebuffed points to the fact that Warner doesn't want to leave a single dollar on the table.



Point taken on Microsoft and VC-1.... I disagree about its inferiority to any of the other encodes (and I personally prefer it to MPEG-2 unless a very high bitrate is used on a dual-layer BR disc). That said, I am sure HD DVD chose that for the same reason Sony chose MPEG-2 for BR... royalties. I doubt picture quality had much to do with it for either camp... although MPEG-2 would not work well for HD-DVD at all due to the lower disc layer space.

As for the PS3, I never claimed it was a loss leader for retailers. Rather I said it was no margin king, and I maintain that. The retailers make their money on the games (and so does Sony, for that matter).

As for the Venturer HD DVD player, I have heard differently about Walmart carrying it. I have heard they will indeed, and BB may (but it is not confirmed to the best of my knowledge). Target I am sure you are right when you say they are out, but I dont believe they have made any formal statement either.

In the case of Warner going to HD DVD exclusive, next year will let us know who is right, but I am highly confident I am on this one. They have always been a strong HD DVD supporter, and their jettisoning of a key person in charge of the dual format strategy only strengthens my belief here. Even many BR supporters on the boards are preparing for this. Of course it is all speculation until an announcement is made either way next year. Warner has gone on record saying that they have received offers from both sides... now they just need to decide what is in their best interest after the holiday season.

As for 300, it is a bad example sales comparison-wise IMO because the HD DVD was a combo disc that cost $5 more than the BR. I, like most others who loathe combo discs (at a higher price point) always will buy the BR version of a title when they offer the HD DVD that way. I personally believe the combo disc is not long for this world... terrible idea, IMO unless the pricing is the same. Warner and others have to know this by now.

As for Worldwide... China is the big fish, and with CH DVD, they have in essence decided to support HD DVD as the players are compatible with the format (and the reverse appears true as well for US sales). It is true they are vaporware right *now*, but come later this year in China, and next year in the US they will not be. Again, I maintain Joe6pack will indeed buy these cheap players -- especially at a sub $100 street price point. They may complain about the cheap quality in time, but in the short-run it will equate to market penetration for HD DVD (or so I believe) as it will be an inexpensive way to not only play their DVDs, but HD DVDs as well for the studios that offer them.

The BR player lead on standalone players is for a month, and I am quite confident it will be short-lived if not already gone by now... that said, I could be wrong. Again, only time will tell if this is a short-lived anomaly as I believe, or a trend as you do... We shall see.

Lots of fun ahead for both formats... I am still angry that the two sides could not come to an agreement in the first place like most (I too remember VHS vs. Beta and was on the Beta side), but as things stand now I don't think either side is in a position to even consider declaring victory in the forseeable future.

---Dave

[Groundbeef]

That is a Sony issue only. From talking with Paidgeek from Bluray.com Sony is selling the PS3 to retailers so they make a small(very small) profit from the PS3. Sony appears to be taking the loss themselves. This is the reason retailers do not mind devoting a good size space for the PS3. If they didn't make a profit from it, then you would only see it offered on the retailers website, much like HD DVD players are on Walmarts and Targets but not in their stores.

Can't really argue the rest of your points because I really don't know enough to argue either way.

However, this particular point needs some clarification. I am friends with both a manager at BB, and a friend who is a manager of a GameStop store. Hardware sales account for very little profit. We are talking maybe $5-10 per console. Thats for the console. Retailers don't make much if anything on them. Thats why they try to load you up on games, accessories, and the extended warrenty. This is for both the PS3 and the XBOX 360.

So, its not really true that small profit dictates shelf space entirely. Retailers are probably making at least the $5-10 per console on a dedicated HD-DVD player.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Point taken on Microsoft and VC-1.... I disagree about its inferiority to any of the other encodes (and I personally prefer it to MPEG-2 unless a very high bitrate is used on a dual-layer BR disc). That said, I am sure HD DVD chose that for the same reason Sony chose MPEG-2 for BR... royalties. I doubt picture quality had much to do with it for either camp... although MPEG-2 would not work well for HD-DVD at all due to the lower disc layer space.

Let's get the internet spread FUD out of the way first. This is no direct connection to inferior picture quality with the combination of BD-25 and MPEG-2. This is misinformation at the highest order(not saying you started it). Here is a bluray title review with both MPEG-2, BD-25, and a comparison of the same movie on HD DVD with VC-1

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/failuretolaunch.html

Notice these key words in this paragraph

Oddly, they continue to use different codecs for the different formats, with the Blu-ray getting the MPEG-2 treatment, and HD DVD getting VC-1. Despite this difference, both transfers come from the same master, are presented in 2.35:1 widescreen and 1080p video, and look identical.

Here is another two:
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/chronos.html
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/tonybennett_americanclassic.html

So it's not the combination of MPEG-2 and BD-25 that leads to picture quality problems, its poor print condition.

MPEG-2 and HD DVD don't mix. You do have to have to use a higher bitrate with MPEG-2, and HD DVD maximum video bitrate is only 29.4mbps which with the combination of this codec, and alot of action, would exceed the bit budget of the system. VC-1 is perfect for HD DVD.


As for the PS3, I never claimed it was a loss leader for retailers. Rather I said it was no margin king, and I maintain that. The retailers make their money on the games (and so does Sony, for that matter).

I think this is a minor point not worth debating over.


As for the Venturer HD DVD player, I have heard differently about Walmart carrying it. I have heard they will indeed, and BB may (but it is not confirmed to the best of my knowledge). Target I am sure you are right when you say they are out, but I dont believe they have made any formal statement either.

“We have no plans to have Venturer in our stores this holiday,” Wal-Mart merchandise spokeswoman Melissa O’Brien said. “We will continue to offer the best values on popular HD DVD and Blu-ray products from leading consumer brands like Sony, Samsung, Philips, Toshiba and RCA.”

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6473655

Target has made their position known as well:

http://www.joystiq.com/2007/07/26/target-targets-blu-ray-as-the-way/



In the case of Warner going to HD DVD exclusive, next year will let us know who is right, but I am highly confident I am on this one. They have always been a strong HD DVD supporter, and their jettisoning of a key person in charge of the dual format strategy only strengthens my belief here. Even many BR supporters on the boards are preparing for this. Of course it is all speculation until an announcement is made either way next year. Warner has gone on record saying that they have received offers from both sides... now they just need to decide what is in their best interest after the holiday season.

I think you have some of your facts twisted. Steve Nickerson is a former employee of Toshiba, and a major proponent of HD DVD. His public face says he was a proponent of neutrality for Warner, however those within the industry know he is very pro HD DVD. His departure does not represent Warner's impending exclusivity. Warner is a major member of the BDA, and probably the only studio making a profit from neutrality. They also have been paying big attention to the sales figures of their titles released on both formats. WE both know where that stands. Warner is going to remain neutral because it makes good business sense for them. Bluray movies are outselling HD DVD currently YTD at a 61:39 percent here in the states. In Europe its 70:30 YTD. In Japan its 94:6 YTD. I do not think Warner will ignore this.


As for 300, it is a bad example sales comparison-wise IMO because the HD DVD was a combo disc that cost $5 more than the BR. I, like most others who loathe combo discs (at a higher price point) always will buy the BR version of a title when they offer the HD DVD that way. I personally believe the combo disc is not long for this world... terrible idea, IMO unless the pricing is the same. Warner and others have to know this by now.

Unfortunately you cannot dismiss what you don't like. I like to deal with the facts. Both formats got the release, bluray outsold HD DVD by more than 2:1, and 300 is still the top selling bluray disc, outselling even the newest HD DVD releases after more than a month on the market. Cost aside, the facts are there.


As for Worldwide... China is the big fish, and with CH DVD, they have in essence decided to support HD DVD as the players are compatible with the format (and the reverse appears true as well for US sales). It is true they are vaporware right *now*, but come later this year in China, and next year in the US they will not be. Again, I maintain Joe6pack will indeed buy these cheap players -- especially at a sub $100 street price point. They may complain about the cheap quality in time, but in the short-run it will equate to market penetration for HD DVD (or so I believe) as it will be an inexpensive way to not only play their DVDs, but HD DVDs as well for the studios that offer them.

You and I know that CH-DVD and HD DVD are not compatible. They are based on simular designs, but they are not compatible formats. That's a fact, an undisputable fact. The fact that they are based on simular designs doesn't necessarily mean that HD DVD will benefit from its manufacture. As of now, cheap chinese players are vaporware, and cannot be debated within the contexted of current events. Cheap players will only move joe6pack to buy when ALL studio support a single format. Nobody wants to buy a brick, not even a cheap brick. Considering all the bad press that the Chinese manufacturing sector has received recently, the American consumer may just pass these players up, cheap price and all. We'll see though.

We both agree that China is a big fish, and at IFA 2007 China Hualu, the only consumer electronics company owned by a branch of the Chinese government joined the BDA.

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070830005428&newsLang=en

This is not vaporware, it has already happened.


The BR player lead on standalone players is for a month, and I am quite confident it will be short-lived if not already gone by now... that said, I could be wrong. Again, only time will tell if this is a short-lived anomaly as I believe, or a trend as you do... We shall see.

Geeze, this is a powerful statement to make considering no one knows how long a sales lead is going to continue unless they can predict the future. The HD DVD PG should hire you right away!!!




Lots of fun ahead for both formats... I am still angry that the two sides could not come to an agreement in the first place like most (I too remember VHS vs. Beta and was on the Beta side), but as things stand now I don't think either side is in a position to even consider declaring victory in the forseeable future.

---Dave

I am angry as well. However my anger is more strongly directed at Toshiba, because when Sony approached Toshiba and Warner with the idea to begin working on HDM on disc, Toshiba rebuffed them saying, and I quote" There are not enough HDTV in the field to even begin working on this". When Toshiba saw that Sony began organizing a pre-BDA group of manufacturers and studios that went ahead with developement on which is now called bluray, they rushed THEIR idea before the DVD forum for adoption. Quite a few companies(including the one I work for) obstained from voting on HD DVD. The most common reason stated was this forum was designed for the promotion of the DVD format, not a high definition format. Also many of those same companies were already envolved in the developement of the Bluray format. Sony had already given in and withdrew their specs for the developement of the DVD format, and Toshiba could have done the same this time around if it weren't for their desire to continue getting the same kind of royalties it is currently getting from the DVD format. In the end, both sides greed made it impossible to unify.

We disagree without even calling each other names. This has to be a presidence of some sort in the history of this war online.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Can't really argue the rest of your points because I really don't know enough to argue either way.

However, this particular point needs some clarification. I am friends with both a manager at BB, and a friend who is a manager of a GameStop store. Hardware sales account for very little profit. We are talking maybe $5-10 per console. Thats for the console. Retailers don't make much if anything on them. Thats why they try to load you up on games, accessories, and the extended warrenty. This is for both the PS3 and the XBOX 360.

So, its not really true that small profit dictates shelf space entirely. Retailers are probably making at least the $5-10 per console on a dedicated HD-DVD player.

I did say they are making a small profit, though I do not know what that amount is. So a standalone HD DVD player gives them the same profit as a PS3. Interesting....

One of my close friends is a manager at a best buy near me. He says that the profit they can make DOES determine the amount of shelf space they will give. Maybe it doesn't for gaming machines, but that is certainly true of televisions, DVD players, appliances and various other goods.

[nightflier]

First, it is stupid to market two formats that essentially do the same thing. There is no history of any disc based media that do indentical things coexisting.

Well I'd mention Intel & AMD, but those aren't exactly disks. But if we have to limit it to disk wars, isn't wat you describe exactly how the SACD & DVD-A feud unfolded? And some brick-owning die-hards would argue, it still rages on. If I remember right (thanks bobsticks for reminding us), DVD-A came late to the party, eventually had the larger catalog, including more hit/modern titles, more shelf-space in the stores, more support with disk-player manufacturers, and well, they just about fizzled out, now. All the while, SACD, like the proverbial turtle racing the hare, slowly but surely won the race (if you can call it a win). This recent scenario should be reason enough to remind us that format wars, like tribal conflicts, don't always end quickly or completely.

By the way, there are currently 3453 laserdisks for sale on eBay, including over 300 new ones.

Sir T., I certainly respect your insight into this industry and I can't argue against the numbers. But I've also learned that sudden changes, shifts, and product announcements can make a huge difference in volatile markets. What if there was an embarrassing corporate scandal at Sony or Disney? What if Microsoft software all of a sudden stopped working with BR disks because of some "bug"? Or how about if Venturer or another Chinese manufacturer made a cheap BR player instead, and it was a real hit, sent BR player sales tumbling and Panasonic and Samsung were to throw in the towel instead?

I know it's a stretch but it could happen. Or how about this one, and I'm really just shooting in the dark here - wild speculation at best - a new war were to suddenly start somewhere in the world and it affected transportation, production, or the financial markets? I mean, I'm really reaching for straws here, but let's just presume for the sake of argument, that such a wild, distant possibility would just happen to affect, oh, I dunno, electronic sales over the holiday season?

Anyhow, what I'm trying to say is that:

1. Format wars don't always end suddenly,
2. A lead in one format, however large or apparent, can always change,
3. Seemingly unrelated events, especially sudden ones, can dramatically change markets.

Hence the reason that most of the buying public is just going to wait this one out. And the real danger for both formats and the companies that support them, is that a third option emerges and makes the former two obsolete. That third option, IMO, is HD downloads.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Well I'd mention Intel & AMD, but those aren't exactly disks. But if we have to limit it to disk wars, isn't wat you describe exactly how the SACD & DVD-A feud unfolded? And some brick-owning die-hards would argue, it still rages on. If I remember right (thanks bobsticks for reminding us), DVD-A came late to the party, eventually had the larger catalog, including more hit/modern titles, more shelf-space in the stores, more support with disk-player manufacturers, and well, they just about fizzled out, now. All the while, SACD, like the proverbial turtle racing the hare, slowly but surely won the race (if you can call it a win). This recent scenario should be reason enough to remind us that format wars, like tribal conflicts, don't always end quickly or completely.

No comparison to SACD and DVD-A. Both formats were stillborn at birth. SACD was because there were no post processing tools for either the studio, on in the players. Secondly it didn't have the support of the major record companies, and that goes for DVD-A as well. DVD-A didn't do well because they couldn't deliver 24/96khz multichannel on a consistant basis, and often what was sold didn't sound any better than CD, but just added surround. Neither was easy to hookup to anyone's receiver because of copy protection. Thirdly, the consumer wants and wanted mobile audio, audio they could put on a pocket player and run. Neither audio format could do this.
HD DVD and Bluray do have industry support and can be hooked up to all current receivers. Apples and oranges comparison.

I think you are under the impression that one camp has to fold up and blow away for the other to win. Nope, that is not the case. One will be the dominate format and will continue to grow. The other will not disappear overnight, but it will not get the best titles, and from a studio perspective will not be well supported. Players may continue to sell to play disc already purchased, but it will not grow. That could play out for years even with the war officially over. The studios want this war over, the manufacturers want this war over, and to spir consumer interest in HDM on disc, this war has to be over quickly before the public is totally turned off.


By the way, there are currently 3453 laserdisks for sale on eBay, including over 300 new ones.

And not a single player manufactured in 10 years, which is why there are 3453 laserdisc for sale.


Sir T., I certainly respect your insight into this industry and I can't argue against the numbers. But I've also learned that sudden changes, shifts, and product announcements can make a huge difference in volatile markets. What if there was an embarrassing corporate scandal at Sony or Disney? What if Microsoft software all of a sudden stopped working with BR disks because of some "bug"? Or how about if Venturer or another Chinese manufacturer made a cheap BR player instead, and it was a real hit, sent BR player sales tumbling and Panasonic and Samsung were to throw in the towel instead?

A corporate scandal at Sony or Disney is not going to change their market strategy, or their support of Bluray. It would take the collaspe of the entire bluray superstructure to do that(you can throw Fox in as well). Microsoft does not have a single finger in the bluray camp, so the real question is What if HDi suddenly stopped working in HD DVD players because of bugs in the software? There are several chinese manufacturers that will be making bluray players in the future. They were welcomed into the BDA already. Have cheap chinese DVD players stop Panasonic and Samsung from making DVD players?


I know it's a stretch but it could happen. Or how about this one, and I'm really just shooting in the dark here - wild speculation at best - a new war were to suddenly start somewhere in the world and it affected transportation, production, or the financial markets? I mean, I'm really reaching for straws here, but let's just presume for the sake of argument, that such a wild, distant possibility would just happen to affect, oh, I dunno, electronic sales over the holiday season?

The all sales of electronics would suffer, but it wouldn't stop either camp at this point from pushing their format


Anyhow, what I'm trying to say is that:

1. Format wars don't always end suddenly,
2. A lead in one format, however large or apparent, can always change,
3. Seemingly unrelated events, especially sudden ones, can dramatically change markets.

Hence the reason that most of the buying public is just going to wait this one out. And the real danger for both formats and the companies that support them, is that a third option emerges and makes the former two obsolete. That third option, IMO, is HD downloads.

1. I understand, and have never stated that this war would end suddenly. However the war does not have to suddenly end for a victor to emerge.

2. When a industry(the studios) decide who they want to support, there is no change. See DIVX vs regular DVD on that one. Once the studios choose regular DVD, DIVX died never to return.

3. These same events would harm EVERYONE, not just bluray or HD DVD.

The infrastructure for downloads is a looooong way off. Industry survey's already indicated movie downloads already are losing steam. For HD movies the internet would have to be faster with no bottlenecks, consumer would have to have several terabytes of storage, and a way to get it there. Downloads would have to be able to offer 1080p, seemless branching, PIP, and be able to handle VERY large file sizes. It will be quite a few years before that happens. Whatever format is left standing has plenty of years to mature.

I think most of the public is waiting this out because there is no full studio support for either format, and software prices are still too high. I do not think player prices play too much into this because DVD prices were still quite high at this point in their history, and people were buying them left and right.

I am not dismissing your points. However these points have already been argued ad naseum over the last six or so months.

[musicman1999]

Hd downloads as a viable option are at least 10 years away for the general public.In the U.S. the average download speed is less than 2 MBPS ,here in Canada we are about 5MBPS
but in Japan it is about 60 MBPS.So we here in North America have a long way to before this is a viable alternative in large scale numbers.


bill

[ldgibson76]

I'm gonna take a walk on the wild side and state the obvious.....In the infamous words of my father, "It's not about the money,...but it's about the money!" The "bottom line" is the virtue here guys. Regardless of which camp is selling more software and/or hardware, it's about profitability. Believe me when I tell you, if another format hits the market that has very similar video quality and cost the studios less money to produce it and it cost the manufacturer's less money to build the hardware to play the new format, then both HD DVD and BD will go the way of the Dodo! An example....VMD (Versatile Multi-Layer Disc) is on the horizon, and is being considered by both studios and manufacturer's. I'm not saying that VMD is going to take the world by storm, but Paramount understood the overall cost of producing BD, and opted to go exclusively HD DVD. Even with the $150 million payout, they saw it would cost them less going HD DVD than staying with BD. One more thing, marketing is everything. Hey, when I think of a hamburger, Mikey D's comes to mind. Doesn't make the Big Mac the best burger out there, but the damage has been done. McDonald's is burned into memory. Maybe not to that extent, but sony understands this notion better than anyone. Market the product to the 10th power, and you have a good chance of taking the market no matter how mediorce your product is! Not saying that Blu ray is mediorce, but the process/cost can easily put it in that category. I'm talking "Cost justification!" The difference between DVD vs. VHS and HD DVD vs. BD is, there was no comparison between DVD and VHS. A moron could see the benefits of DVD over VHS. Kind of like the what happened when the CD came to the market. When BD and HD DVD hit the market, DVD is still in it's heyday! DVD's are still outselling the HD formats by an obscene margin! Consumers, although curious about the new formats are for the most part content with standard DVDs and the with the onslaught of upconverting/upscaling dvd players, which offer hi-def-like quality, allows the consumer to hold off and wait for the dust to settle. Which allows for the infiltration of less costly upstart format developers. Imagine a disc that uses a red laser instead of a blue one, has 50 GB storage capacity, and the manufacturing cost was no more than that of the average dvd! It's coming! Everything that was said in the previous posts are valid points and articulated well, but the bottom line again....is the MONEY!
There were a lot of "What if's" in there, but that's where it starts. The idea!

One more example of how the consumer mentality can shift.....remember when the DVD Recorder hit the market? Pioneer introduces it to the consumer market for $4 large! 4 thousand dollars!:mad2: It took at least 4 years before the dvd recorders could be had for less than $300. By then it was too late. Tivo hit the market. It was hot until the cable and satellite companies developed the DVR. Panasonic, Philips and Pioneer had a brainstorm and put hard drives into the dvd recorders, but again, too late. I know I'm missing other developments during that time, like Hi def and DVD-/+RW blank media and the like...but hopefully you see where I'm going. Change is inevitable in this industry. And anything can happen. One man's brain dead theory could be another man's epiphany into greatness!

Regards!

[PeruvianSkies]

I own roughly 100 LD's still, I only got rid of titles once a DVD edition was released that was superior to the LD, so why do I still have 100 or so LD's? Because they still retain value to me and have yet to be beaten by a superior format in some way, shape, or form. I know that I have recited this information before, but I'll say it again... These are some prime examples of LD's that are still highly sought after, and for good reason.

BLADE DTS edition - the last DTS Laser produced and there still is no DTS on any edition of the film on DVD released inside the US, I do however have the Japanese DTS edition, but it cost me severely to get. The DTS on the LD is thicker though than the Japanese DVD import.

RONIN DTS edition - another great DTS offering on LD that again has not been issued inside the US on DVD with DTS, although there is a nice DTS edition in the UK of the film. Currently going for $85 on eBay btw.

SILENCE OF THE LAMBS (Criterion Ed.) - superb 2.0 stereo soundtrack that is thicker and more pronounced than the 5.1 mix on the Sp. Ed. DVD.

BRAM STOKERS DRACULA (Criterion Ed.) the only version of the film with color accuracy that was approved by Coppola.

TAXI DRIVER (Criterion Ed.) only version of this film that includes an incredibly commentary track by Scorsese to date.

THE ABYSS (THX Laserdisc set) still has superior surround sound mix over the 5.1 on the DVD.

These are just some examples and there are still hundreds of titles on LD that still have yet to be issued on DVD.

So why is this 'obsolete' format still desirable to some on eBay and other outlets? Well, because you can A. buy them cheap and B. there are still dozens and dozens of titles that are superior to anything to date on another format and are worth tracking down.

[drseid]

Sir T, I should comment on your last statement first before addressing your individual points...

I too understand your anger at Toshiba -- this whole thing could have been avoided with some people thinking more sanely... I actually was a BR supporter before I switched to neutral with an HD DVD bias. BR had all the better specs on paper, and as you have rightly pointed out previously, more studio support and more manufacturer support. It appeared to be a relatively easy choice...

The reason for my switch and subsequent anger at BR and particularly Sony, is due to their lack of support for quality early on in their release schedule. HD DVD beat them to market with a lot of glitches in the players (and a few software ones as well), but I thought Sony et al were taking their time and getting it right... Then came their early BR release of "The Fifth Element" a film that was used by many for DVD as a reference standard... and they obviously used either a poor master or just did a sloppy overall job as the disc was called a disaster by many (including me as I got it for free with my player). This, after all the delays and wait and high prices was a big letdown for me and many others... Then there was "The House of Flying Daggers"... etc. One poorly done BR release after another. In the meantime, the player costs were $1000+ versus half that for HD DVD. The HD DVDs by comparison were relatively well-mastered (although they have had some clunkers too, of course). I think BR lost a lot of the early adopters right then and I personally have still not forgiven the format even though at this point I view the picture quality to be just as good as HD DVD (although no better). Bottom line is Toshiba went out of their way to improve their glitchy players early on, and the HD DVD group released primarily quality releases (from a video and audio perspective). In any case that is my take on why I am where I am today with respect to format support.

Now to discuss your other points...

In the case of MPEG-2 Vs. VC-1 or AVC etc. I am not saying VC-1 is superior, but rather it is better suited for lower volume space applications. Some of the early BR releases were hampered by single layer MPEG-2 transfers on a long movie that needed more space to breathe in order to maximize performance for the MPEG-2 format... Either that or they were just poorly mastered, of course. You used an example of one film. Longer films may have fared differently... It is irrelevant anyways, because now if you have a long film, BR can just use a dual layer 50GB disc. So the point really is moot. Bottom line is both formats can look just as good as the other when they are properly mastered on the right amount of disc layers.


As for the Venturer release information I stand corrected. Please accept my apologies.

In the case of 300, I stand by my comments on it being a poor example, IMO. It is not a matter of like or dislike... it is a matter of comparing apples to apples. Take the "Planet Earth" box set... That is a better comparison. Check the results on that and you get a different answer. It all comes down to what you look at.

That said, it is unquestioned that your facts are correct in overall sales, and that is a more accurate indicator. Of course all of these numers are from *before* the Paramount switch, so we will have to see if HD DVD makes a strong comeback in time as that plays out.

As for CH DVD and HD DVD being compatible... I never said that. What I *did* say was I believed China's taking on CH DVD was good for HD DVD. I believe this because I have read the CH DVD players can play HD DVDs too (*backward* compatibility). If this proves to be true, then I would say it is indeed good news for HD DVD. I guess we will see.

As for predicting the future... I am working on it, but unfortunately I keep on making errors. ;-) Still trying...

Seriously though, while I cannot see the future any better than anyone else, I do have a very good "gut feeling" instinct, and get it right *most* of the time. That is not to say this will be one of them of course... My gut tells me that the Paramount switch will turn the tide in standalone player sales back to HD DVD when coupled with HD DVD's relatively low pricing. Again, I can't predict the future, but the facts do seem to indicate I have a good chance of being right here. Again, it wouldn't be the first time I predict something wrong based on current trends, but I trust my business instincts.

Finally, with respect to Warner... That one we will just have to agree to disagree. I may have to eat a bit of humble pie in February of next year (maybe more than a bit), but I truly believe I am right on this one... Time will tell, and I certainly respect your beliefs to the contrary, and your reasoning for those beliefs.

Regards,

---Dave

[drseid]

I own roughly 100 LD's still, I only got rid of titles once a DVD edition was released that was superior to the LD, so why do I still have 100 or so LD's? Because they still retain value to me and have yet to be beaten by a superior format in some way, shape, or form. I know that I have recited this information before, but I'll say it again... These are some prime examples of LD's that are still highly sought after, and for good reason.


So why is this 'obsolete' format still desirable to some on eBay and other outlets? Well, because you can A. buy them cheap and B. there are still dozens and dozens of titles that are superior to anything to date on another format and are worth tracking down.

I confess I have kept my entire LD collection too. In my case, discs like Le Grand Chemin (The Grand Highway) are classics I too can't find elsewhere.

LD unfortunately never really caught on, but I still have a large place in my heart for it...

---Dave

[nightflier]

No comparison to SACD and DVD-A. Both formats were stillborn at birth. SACD was because there were no post processing tools for either the studio, on in the players. Secondly it didn't have the support of the major record companies, and that goes for DVD-A as well. DVD-A didn't do well because they couldn't deliver 24/96khz multichannel on a consistant basis, and often what was sold didn't sound any better than CD, but just added surround. Neither was easy to hookup to anyone's receiver because of copy protection. Thirdly, the consumer wants and wanted mobile audio, audio they could put on a pocket player and run. Neither audio format could do this.
HD DVD and Bluray do have industry support and can be hooked up to all current receivers. Apples and oranges comparison.

This I have to disagree with - our money-grubbing society seems way to eager to dismiss the lessons of just yesteryear, perhaps better said by Santayana: "those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it." The fact is that SACD and DVD-A provide perhaps the most accurate comparison to what could very well unfold with this format war.

First of all, they where not at all stillborn at birth, whatever that means. I remember the lively discussions online about each format's supposed superiority, the sizable catalog for DVD-A that made me drool because I chose SACD, and the almost weekly growth, albeit very short lived, in shelf space at places like Tower, Fry's, GG, and others. There was a time, not too long ago when every record company was considering the formats and DVD-A was the clear leader, much like BR is now. SACD was first out of the gate, but they just didn't have the catalog or the rock and new releases that DVD-A could boast about. This sounds a whole lot like what I'm reading here about BR. By the way, much of the fear-mongering about SACD processing and DVD-A's 24/96Hz inconsistencies had been laid to rest, if not technically, at least in the marketplace, when both formats really seemed to take off.

I also remember reading articles about these formats being the perfect storm, just as we were reaching a market saturation of surround sound systems in people's homes. The argument went that these formats were riding the wave of HT buying witnessed across the industry. And let's not forget that while Laserdisk players are no longer made, more and more quality players are being introduced supporting SACD and to a lesser extent DVD-A.

So what happened? you nailed it on the head: you could not copy them. Yes, we can argue ad-infinitum about whether that was truly their undoing, but the more interesting comparison here is that no one really has hacked HD-DVD or BR in a way that can be widely exploited. And for all the evils that bootlegging might conjure up, from starving artists to links to terrorism and drugs to the possibility that it will grow hair on the palms of your hands, we cannot ignore the possibility that this may be any format's greatest impediment to market saturation. After all, it was the very reason DOS & Windows spread like wildfire throughout the world, that blank cassette sales outnumbered original recording sales in some years, and that, regardless of what the MPAA/RIAA may want you to believe, it made American pop culture the world standard from the deepest jungles of Indonesia to the plateaus of the Andes.

This is where the greatest threat to these formats is, IMO: downloaded content. Downloads' greatest advantage over the greedy copy protection schemes (remember the Sony root-kit scandal?) of HD-DVD and BR, is convenience. I will even go so far as saying that below-DVD quality content such as what is growing like wildfire with the iMovie and the X-box, is eating into the profits of the hi-def formats. Ask any average Joe at BB or CC, what they would like more: unlimited and free access to 24 episodes via download at standard TV quality or the complete collection on HD-DVD / BR at outrageous cost to his pocketbook? It wouldn't even be about the money either. If he even knows what these formats are, he'll prefer the convenience of just clicking a few buttons on the remote and watch 6 episodes, commercial-free in a row than having to get up to switch disks. Heck, he'll probably prefer having it on his iPhone! This doesn't even get into the discussion of which format average Joe would choose.

The bottom line is that this format war is killing hi-def - like the proverbial snake eating its own tail. Decades off? I doubt it. If Japan has 60Mb/s download speeds (I believe that's enough for a full BR download in about 5 minutes), then it's only a matter of a few short years before the iMovie/x-box subscriptions start offering usable HD content for download here in the US. Given all the other stuff that is going on in the world right now that will distract people in the coming year, this x-mas season is crucial. I'll paraphrase from Drumline: "whatever the beef is between those two, they better grill it up and eat it," because if they don't, there's an eager new drummer sitting on the sidelines who can dance circles around them.

[PeruvianSkies]

I thought (and I admit I could be wrong on this) that the DTS-CD's were first to be issued as a 5.1 system for music, then DVD-Audio was issued, which required a DVD-Audio machine to play the entire disc (a la MLP tracks) and then SACD slowly crept in sometime after this. I recall having many DVD-A's before any SACD's were issued, but maybe I am wrong.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sir T, I should comment on your last statement first before addressing your individual points...

I too understand your anger at Toshiba -- this whole thing could have been avoided with some people thinking more sanely... I actually was a BR supporter before I switched to neutral with an HD DVD bias. BR had all the better specs on paper, and as you have rightly pointed out previously, more studio support and more manufacturer support. It appeared to be a relatively easy choice...

I jumped on the HD DVD bandwagon first. Bought the A1 and several discs. The player could not play any of them without glitches or freezes. Returned it and got a second A1. It did exactly the same thing, but in completely different places on each disc. By the time I was ready to return the second player, Toshiba came out with the second generation players. I returned the A1, paid a little extra, and got a X-A2. It had a faster load up(but still slow), but had lip sync'ing issues and glitches. Worse, Toshiba's customer service was inept and incompetent. It took three calls to get the first firmware upgrade, and 4 to get the second. By the time all of this took place, I was turned off by Toshiba, and quit buying HD DVD. The quit buying part became a wise choice because the picture quality of recent universal titles made it easy to make that decision.


The reason for my switch and subsequent anger at BR and particularly Sony, is due to their lack of support for quality early on in their release schedule. HD DVD beat them to market with a lot of glitches in the players (and a few software ones as well), but I thought Sony et al were taking their time and getting it right... Then came their early BR release of "The Fifth Element" a film that was used by many for DVD as a reference standard... and they obviously used either a poor master or just did a sloppy overall job as the disc was called a disaster by many (including me as I got it for free with my player). This, after all the delays and wait and high prices was a big letdown for me and many others... Then there was "The House of Flying Daggers"... etc. One poorly done BR release after another. In the meantime, the player costs were $1000+ versus half that for HD DVD. The HD DVDs by comparison were relatively well-mastered (although they have had some clunkers too, of course). I think BR lost a lot of the early adopters right then and I personally have still not forgiven the format even though at this point I view the picture quality to be just as good as HD DVD (although no better). Bottom line is Toshiba went out of their way to improve their glitchy players early on, and the HD DVD group released primarily quality releases (from a video and audio perspective). In any case that is my take on why I am where I am today with respect to format support.

SPHE did start off rather poorly on the software side, but their players are a hell of alot more stable than HD DVD players. I have had the Samsung, Panasonic, Pioneer and the PS3(I ended up keeping this) in my system at any given time without a single burp or fart. And of the more than 175 bluray titles I have, I may have several with poor picture quality(from the neutral studios) but my remaster copy of The Fifth Element is beautiful, not to mention sounds off the hook.




Now to discuss your other points...

In the case of MPEG-2 Vs. VC-1 or AVC etc. I am not saying VC-1 is superior, but rather it is better suited for lower volume space applications. Some of the early BR releases were hampered by single layer MPEG-2 transfers on a long movie that needed more space to breathe in order to maximize performance for the MPEG-2 format... Either that or they were just poorly mastered, of course. You used an example of one film. Longer films may have fared differently... It is irrelevant anyways, because now if you have a long film, BR can just use a dual layer 50GB disc. So the point really is moot. Bottom line is both formats can look just as good as the other when they are properly mastered on the right amount of disc layers.

From the reports I have received from a Sony insider, the issue has never been disc space or MPEG-2, it was the print quality. So they instituded a policy that they would rather delay a release, than to encode it with a poor print. Disney and Sony have the highest composite picture and sound scores of all studio releasing on both formats. The results were gleaned from average PQ and SQ taken from 10 review sites. Universal and Paramount sit at the bottom.


As for the Venturer release information I stand corrected. Please accept my apologies.

Dave, apologize for what? Not knowing something? Eh, not even necessary bro.




What could be more apples to apples than a single title that was released on both formats. The cost difference is offset when you consider the HD DVD had more extra's than the bluray version. The difference is sales of the Planet earth boxset doesn't even come close to the difference in sales of 300. Now when you compare sales of titles from neutral studios other than the two we mention, bluray still outsells HD DVD by at LEAST 2:1, and sometimes a even larger ratio. Planet Earth is the only title of which HD DVD has outsold bluray. That is very telling.



[quote]That said, it is unquestioned that your facts are correct in overall sales, and that is a more accurate indicator. Of course all of these numers are from *before* the Paramount switch, so we will have to see if HD DVD makes a strong comeback in time as that plays out.

Well, Paramount will have Transformers, and that title will do VERY well. Universals titles are doing extremely poorly. Their lack of attention to quality, and the lack of the use of Dolby trueHD is really hurting them bad. If one looks at trends, catalog titles(with the exception of Disney and Sony) overall are only average. Almost all of bluray's releases are day and date with the DVD, and sales done this way tend to do pretty well. HD DVD gained nothing from Paramounts exclusivity, Paramount was already serving them with titles. I cannot see where they will increase sales for HD DVD. With Fox stepping back in and releasing 16+ titles, that makes up exactly what Paramount had intended for bluray until the end of the year. If Paramount was a BR exclusive, then its switch would have probably had more impact on HD DVD sales. But I cannot see how a studio that was already serving you will increase your sales.


As for CH DVD and HD DVD being compatible... I never said that. What I *did* say was I believed China's taking on CH DVD was good for HD DVD. I believe this because I have read the CH DVD players can play HD DVDs too (*backward* compatibility). If this proves to be true, then I would say it is indeed good news for HD DVD. I guess we will see.

No, CH-DVD cannot play HD DVD. That is incorrect information. The modulation scheme is different, and it doesn't support any of our codecs. The optical will read an HD DVD disc, but after the optical everything becomes incompatible. The disc's they manufacture will not play in a HD DVD. Besides based on the link I provided, it looks like both camps have major players in that market.




As for predicting the future... I am working on it, but unfortunately I keep on making errors. ;-) Still trying...

Flunked it in high school, and gave up tryin!


Seriously though, while I cannot see the future any better than anyone else, I do have a very good "gut feeling" instinct, and get it right *most* of the time. That is not to say this will be one of them of course... My gut tells me that the Paramount switch will turn the tide in standalone player sales back to HD DVD when coupled with HD DVD's relatively low pricing. Again, I can't predict the future, but the facts do seem to indicate I have a good chance of being right here. Again, it wouldn't be the first time I predict something wrong based on current trends, but I trust my business instincts.

I do not go by my gut feelings. They are too easily swayed by my biases. I go by my insider information contacts I have developed within the studio community. Facts always over rule my gut. If you just deal with the FACTS, and keep our biases aside, I cannot see where Toshiba has laid the ground work for HD DVD long term success. The fact that neither Toshiba nor Microsoft has access to a film library means they will have to continue to pay studio's for supporting HD DVD. Toshiba Japan will no longer fund any North American Toshiba HD DVD operations, so Toshiba America is basically on their own. Sony, Disney and Fox will not support HD DVD because of the lack of region coding, and additional layers of protection on their intellectual property. Without these guys, I cannot see where HD DVD future is secure.


Finally, with respect to Warner... That one we will just have to agree to disagree. I may have to eat a bit of humble pie in February of next year (maybe more than a bit), but I truly believe I am right on this one... Time will tell, and I certainly respect your beliefs to the contrary, and your reasoning for those beliefs.

Regards,

---Dave

As a very influentual member of the BDA, I cannot see Warner walking away from BR. My sources tell me that Warner is really under pressure from its parent company to make more money. They cannot do that exclusively supporting a format with a much smaller player base and substantially lower sales as a result. Warner is very much aware of its image amoung consumers, and I just don't think they will jepordize this by pulling support from bluray. Paramount on the other hand has so angered so many BR supporters, that they have vowed to not purchase Paramount's DVD's. Toshiba really should leave Warner alone and really pay attention to Universal. Universal's disc sales are miserable right now, and have never been that great since HD DVD inception. They don't have a single title in the top twenty, or the top 50 for that matter in sales. The Ultimate Bourne is their only big title for Christmas, and they cannot release a single Steven Spielberg movie as an exclusive title. Even Universal has openly stated that they are under considerable pressure from THEIR parent company to improve the Studio's performance. I also have it from my sources that their technical staff has been touring bluray replication facilities for the last year. If Universal goes neutral(which I suspect they will), then this fully explains why Toshiba went after Paramount with so much money. Why would you spend $150 million bucks to get a studio NOT to support bluray if you were already going to have another larger one going exclusive in your favor?.

Such intrigue......

[PeruvianSkies]

I own roughly 100 LD's still, I only got rid of titles once a DVD edition was released that was superior to the LD, so why do I still have 100 or so LD's? Because they still retain value to me and have yet to be beaten by a superior format in some way, shape, or form. I know that I have recited this information before, but I'll say it again... These are some prime examples of LD's that are still highly sought after, and for good reason.

BLADE DTS edition - the last DTS Laser produced and there still is no DTS on any edition of the film on DVD released inside the US, I do however have the Japanese DTS edition, but it cost me severely to get. The DTS on the LD is thicker though than the Japanese DVD import.

RONIN DTS edition - another great DTS offering on LD that again has not been issued inside the US on DVD with DTS, although there is a nice DTS edition in the UK of the film. Currently going for $85 on eBay btw.

SILENCE OF THE LAMBS (Criterion Ed.) - superb 2.0 stereo soundtrack that is thicker and more pronounced than the 5.1 mix on the Sp. Ed. DVD.

BRAM STOKERS DRACULA (Criterion Ed.) the only version of the film with color accuracy that was approved by Coppola.

TAXI DRIVER (Criterion Ed.) only version of this film that includes an incredibly commentary track by Scorsese to date.

THE ABYSS (THX Laserdisc set) still has superior surround sound mix over the 5.1 on the DVD.

These are just some examples and there are still hundreds of titles on LD that still have yet to be issued on DVD.

So why is this 'obsolete' format still desirable to some on eBay and other outlets? Well, because you can A. buy them cheap and B. there are still dozens and dozens of titles that are superior to anything to date on another format and are worth tracking down.


Update: My friend recently reported that the Blu-ray issue of BRAM STOKERS DRACULA is taken from the Superbit DVD and has not improved the picture much, still has those color issues and the sound is only marginally better than that DVD as well. Boooo. When will this film ever get proper treatment?????

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

This I have to disagree with - our money-grubbing society seems way to eager to dismiss the lessons of just yesteryear, perhaps better said by Santayana: "those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it." The fact is that SACD and DVD-A provide perhaps the most accurate comparison to what could very well unfold with this format war.

Any comparison between what happen with high resolution audio, and what is happening with HDM on disc is a comparison of convience, not one born out of critical thinking. The comparisons are not the same at the retail level, nor at studio or record company level. The couldn't be more different. Only at the surface does the comparison appear valid, but once you dig deeper, that when you realize it just apples and oranges.


First of all, they where not at all stillborn at birth, whatever that means. I remember the lively discussions online about each format's supposed superiority, the sizable catalog for DVD-A that made me drool because I chose SACD, and the almost weekly growth, albeit very short lived, in shelf space at places like Tower, Fry's, GG, and others. There was a time, not too long ago when every record company was considering the formats and DVD-A was the clear leader, much like BR is now. SACD was first out of the gate, but they just didn't have the catalog or the rock and new releases that DVD-A could boast about. This sounds a whole lot like what I'm reading here about BR. By the way, much of the fear-mongering about SACD processing and DVD-A's 24/96Hz inconsistencies had been laid to rest, if not technically, at least in the marketplace, when both formats really seemed to take off.

Considering and supporting are at polar ends of the spectrum. One requires action, the other does not. They absolutely were stillborn at birth. At birth, SACD had no studio DSD post production tools. No editing, eq'ing, no mixing, and not even a clear workflow for studios to follow. The players had to convert the DSD stream to PCM to process bass management, speaker levels, and delay thereby killing any advantage the DSD stream had sonically. The only players that could process and pass the DSD bitstream where ultra expensive for a DVD player and a CD player for that matter. Not a receipe for success on a mass market level.

DVD-A was a very different animal. All the post processing tools were firmly in place, and all of the players supported PCM audio. No problem here except you could not get the support of the major record companies. Secondly, in order to access the high resolution bitstream, you need to use the analog inputs to the receiver because of copy protection. Another snag in widespread adoption. What you could access through the standard coaxial or Toslink outputs/input was nothing more than 24/48khz audio, which you could find on some movie soundtracks. This was right out of the gate, at both formats inception, hence there was no receipe for either to succeed out of the gate. Stillborn! The audio war was great for the audio press, and they were the only ones that got any benefit from it.



I also remember reading articles about these formats being the perfect storm, just as we were reaching a market saturation of surround sound systems in people's homes. The argument went that these formats were riding the wave of HT buying witnessed across the industry. And let's not forget that while Laserdisk players are no longer made, more and more quality players are being introduced supporting SACD and to a lesser extent DVD-A.

Perfects storms can easily turn into imperfect ones with the change of the wind, humidity, and temperature. Conditions for perfect storms exist often without the storm even showing up. Since the industry could not get high resolution audio into homes without a hassle, the missed their opportunity to capitalize on it.

Just after I left audioreview I wrote an article in Surround Pro Magazine about the failure of multichannel music in the marketplace. I talked to Terry Beard the CEO of Dts and Dts Entertainment, and Michael Bishop of Telerc Records. Dts was the largest liscensing and distributor of DVD-A disc, and Telarc was a Record company who support SACD faithfully since its inception. When I asked Terry Beard why he thought DVD-A failed in the marketplace, his response was "we couldn't get the major record companies to participate directly, or liscense their music to us for repurposing and distribution". By the time we could get their tepid participation, the market changed completely to the distribution of music via MP3. We lost our opportunity to low rez audio".

When I asked Michael Bishop why SACD failed his response was this" Sony did not have any post production tools available, so there were limits to what kind of recording and genre of music that could be used with the format without conversion to PCM. When the tools did become available, they were too expensive for most studios who supported SACD". Once again he stated that the industry's big dogs didn't support SACD, it was the smaller boutique record labels that did. Without widespread adoption of the tools, Sony could not get the price down to more affordable levels. Both said there was little promotion and educuation of multichannel music. Both stated that once the recordings were done, very little support came from retailers in the form of shelf space. Combine that with very few multichannel productions produced from the ground up, and the industry reliance on repurpusing reissues with obvious sonic degredation, and the consumer wasn't impressed.

Now let's compare what these two said to HD DVD and Bluray now. Both of these formats have full studio support between them. All of the majors are engaged, all of the post production tools are in the field and well supported. HDTV sets sales are booming which both formats need, the retailers are stocking the product well, advertising is everywhere, in the case of Bluray many manufacturers are producing players. There are Bluray and HD DVD drives available for computers, and computer manufacturer are installing them in laptops. Replication plants are up and running, and marketing departments are in full spin mode. Player prices are dropping, though software prices are still quite high, or actually at the same pace as DVD at its inception. All the ingredients are there for mass adoption except consumer confusion is hampering its growth. Both formats do the same thing, have the studio split right down the middle in terms of support(if you look deeper, studio support heavily favor bluray as they have most of the top grossing movies released in the last two years). Where the two wars ARE the same is in the "window of interest". SACD and DVD-A allowed theirs to pass without addressing the problems with their respective formats. Bluray and HD DVD are not quite there yet, but time is really running out.


So what happened? you nailed it on the head: you could not copy them. Yes, we can argue ad-infinitum about whether that was truly their undoing, but the more interesting comparison here is that no one really has hacked HD-DVD or BR in a way that can be widely exploited.

No, but they didn't hack and exploit the DVD format in its first two years either, but they did in a big way beginning in 2000. They have already permanently cracked AACS via the XBOX HD DVD drive, they just haven't figured out how to deal with the large file sizes. Bit torrent has made sure you can get any DVD or song you want off of the internet.



And for all the evils that bootlegging might conjure up, from starving artists to links to terrorism and drugs to the possibility that it will grow hair on the palms of your hands, we cannot ignore the possibility that this may be any format's greatest impediment to market saturation.

Copy protection is largely transparent to the end user. The only time the end user is effected by copy protection is when they try and copy the disc. Copy protection has been on DVD and that didn't stop if from growing before piracy came into play.


After all, it was the very reason DOS & Windows spread like wildfire throughout the world, that blank cassette sales outnumbered original recording sales in some years, and that, regardless of what the MPAA/RIAA may want you to believe, it made American pop culture the world standard from the deepest jungles of Indonesia to the plateaus of the Andes.

We don't live in that world anymore, and we are not going back to it. As much as I hate copy protection, it is here to stay. As long as you can put a disc in a player, press play and it plays, the consumer hardly notices copy protection. Windows spread thoughout the world because it was included in every computer. Not because of the lack of copy protection. The blank cassette allowed us to copy our records, and play them in the car. That is why it took off, it had a necessary purpose that everyone wanted to use it for. It wasn't the lack of copy protection, it was the ability to make music mobile just like MP3.


This is where the greatest threat to these formats is, IMO: downloaded content. Downloads' greatest advantage over the greedy copy protection schemes (remember the Sony root-kit scandal?) of HD-DVD and BR, is convenience. I will even go so far as saying that below-DVD quality content such as what is growing like wildfire with the iMovie and the X-box, is eating into the profits of the hi-def formats. Ask any average Joe at BB or CC, what they would like more: unlimited and free access to 24 episodes via download at standard TV quality or the complete collection on HD-DVD / BR at outrageous cost to his pocketbook? It wouldn't even be about the money either. If he even knows what these formats are, he'll prefer the convenience of just clicking a few buttons on the remote and watch 6 episodes, commercial-free in a row than having to get up to switch disks. Heck, he'll probably prefer having it on his iPhone! This doesn't even get into the discussion of which format average Joe would choose.

Downloading high definition movies is a long way off. It can never compete directly with the disc because the pipeline currently is too small to carry a 1080p video stream along with a 1080i pip data stream, a 24/48khz or 24/96khz audio stream, multiple languages embeded within the audio stream simultaneously, and will not be able to do it for some time here in North America. Japan could do it tomorrow, but not here.

If you check your facts you will find movie downloading hit its peak in 2006, and has been on the decline every since. Study after study has shown consumers don't watch movies on their computers in any great numbers. Looking at highly compressed 480i is nothing like watching AVC or VC-1 compressed 1080p. Listening to a highly compressed stereo soundtrack is nothing like listening to a uncompressed 5.1 PCM soundtrack at 24bits. Looking at a 20" computer screen is nothing like looking at a 50" plasma or a 130" projection screen. Until downloading can equal the visual and audio experience of HDM on disc, it will not take the place of movie on disc.


The bottom line is that this format war is killing hi-def - like the proverbial snake eating its own tail. Decades off? I doubt it. If Japan has 60Mb/s download speeds (I believe that's enough for a full BR download in about 5 minutes), then it's only a matter of a few short years before the iMovie/x-box subscriptions start offering usable HD content for download here in the US.

There have been several studies circulating online that state that you are incorrect in your thinking. We are years behind Japan in technology. We would have to rebuild or build a new internet from the ground up to get 60mbps speeds. We cannot upgrade what we have now to get that speed. Who will build it? How much would it cost? We haven't even began to ask these questions, have a plan, or allocated any money for feasibility studies on implementation. How will the video be stored? How does one get the video from the storage to the television. Terabytes of storage are still way to expensive, and the servers that are being marketed are still too expensive for the average consumer. Every study points to the fact that we are way off in getting HD content over the internet that can compete with HDM on disc.


Given all the other stuff that is going on in the world right now that will distract people in the coming year, this x-mas season is crucial. I'll paraphrase from Drumline: "whatever the beef is between those two, they better grill it up and eat it," because if they don't, there's an eager new drummer sitting on the sidelines who can dance circles around them.

While I agree that the window of opportunity for both formats is quickly closing, I highly doubt there is a NEW drummer that can dance circles around them. Consumers will just keep supporting standard definition DVD because it is already here, cheap, and thanks to upscaling, looks decent. That line works on drumline because it is applicable. It doesn't work in this case because it is not.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Update: My friend recently reported that the Blu-ray issue of BRAM STOKERS DRACULA is taken from the Superbit DVD and has not improved the picture much, still has those color issues and the sound is only marginally better than that DVD as well. Boooo. When will this film ever get proper treatment?????

He must have gotten his information from hidefdigest.com. Out of all of the online reviewers, he is the worst. Those who have seen the print the bluray was encoded from say its soft, but not nearly as bad as Peter describes it. Peter has been wrong quite a few times before, and other reviewers have commented about it.

[PeruvianSkies]

He must have gotten his information from hidefdigest.com. Out of all of the online reviewers, he is the worst. Those who have seen the print the bluray was encoded from say its soft, but not nearly as bad as Peter describes it. Peter has been wrong quite a few times before, and other reviewers have commented about it.

Nope, my friend has the Blu-ray disc.

[musicman1999]

According to thedigitalbits.com this release is all new,no carry over from previous editions.It is a 50gig dual layer,with uncompressed pcm and mpeg4. Two disc,also regular dvd gets new treatment.

bill

[PeruvianSkies]

According to thedigitalbits.com this release is all new,no carry over from previous editions.It is a 50gig dual layer,with uncompressed pcm and mpeg4. Two disc,also regular dvd gets new treatment.

bill

Well, he wouldn't lie to me about it. Excerpt from his review:

The prized collector’s item continues to be the 12” Criterion Collection LaserDisc that still has extras even these new versions do not. Previously, the best DVD was the Superbit edition with more room for picture and sound. Unfortunately, both did not capture the film well and the Superbit version even had an HD master. The 1080p digital 1.85 X 1 High Definition image on the Blu-ray (and to a lesser extent, the anamorphically enhanced DVD picture, where shadow detail is weak(er)) was expected to be a correction of years of inadequate telecine work. The film was shot by the great Michael Ballhaus, with amazing work on his resume, including with Rainer Werner Fassbinder and Martin Scorsese. His work here is sometimes complex and is the one thing that appreciates after years of awful digital work. Unfortunately, it looks like the Superbit’s HD master is being used here and that is bad. It is even worse on the DVD set, where the picture is a tad weaker than the Superbit release.

Why anyone thought this was a good idea is beyond me, but it is not good and the Blu-ray by default is the slimmest bit better than the Superbit. That master must have been 1080i, but could it have been 720p? So what does that mean for the sound? More bad news.

Before the fall of Cinema Digital Sound and rise of three new digital sound formats that all survived (DTS, Dolby and SDDS), Sony issued the film in Dolby Digital theatrical and that was a 5.1 mix that won the Sound Effects editing Academy Award. The DTS on the Superbit Edition was even better than the Dolby on previous version, that version or this new DVD set, but the Dolby here is especially compressed in English. If that was not bad enough, the French Dolby Digital 5.1 track has more detail than the English mix!

What’s worse, you would think the PCM 16/48 5.1 mix sounds compressed too and the Superbit DTS could easily rival it. What happened? Down to Wojciech Kilar’s score, nothing sounds as good as it should or look as good as my Dolby Digital 35mm screening when the film opened. Compare to the Superbit DTS, French Dolby on both of these new versions or even the PCM 16/44.1 2.0 Stereo with Pro Logic surrounds on the Criterion LaserDisc and you’ll hear what is missing.

[Mr Peabody]

Al Gore built this internet and he will build the new one too! I'm sure he already has the new one ready, he is just waiting for the right time.

[musicman1999]

I did not say he was lying.All i was doing was giving you the technical specs of the disc and they appear to be as good as it gets--1080p,5.1 pcm. It also has a directors commentary and production features and a new transfer.As to quality i have not seen it so I can't comment but i would like to see it.

bill

[PeruvianSkies]

I did not say he was lying.All i was doing was giving you the technical specs of the disc and they appear to be as good as it gets--1080p,5.1 pcm. It also has a directors commentary and production features and a new transfer.As to quality i have not seen it so I can't comment but i would like to see it.

bill

I am curious as well, mostly for color-accuracy. There is a big discrepancy in the areas of oranges and greens. Plus, the darkness of that film was never really solid in any DVD edition of the film. Video black and video red are two of the hardest things to get right and that film contains a bunch of both colors. The DVD's were too smeary and even the Superbit had limitations, I'll really be curious to see the Blu-ray myself.

[pixelthis]

This I have to disagree with - our money-grubbing society seems way to eager to dismiss the lessons of just yesteryear, perhaps better said by Santayana: "those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it." The fact is that SACD and DVD-A provide perhaps the most accurate comparison to what could very well unfold with this format war.

First of all, they where not at all stillborn at birth, whatever that means. I remember the lively discussions online about each format's supposed superiority, the sizable catalog for DVD-A that made me drool because I chose SACD, and the almost weekly growth, albeit very short lived, in shelf space at places like Tower, Fry's, GG, and others. There was a time, not too long ago when every record company was considering the formats and DVD-A was the clear leader, much like BR is now. SACD was first out of the gate, but they just didn't have the catalog or the rock and new releases that DVD-A could boast about. This sounds a whole lot like what I'm reading here about BR. By the way, much of the fear-mongering about SACD processing and DVD-A's 24/96Hz inconsistencies had been laid to rest, if not technically, at least in the marketplace, when both formats really seemed to take off.

I also remember reading articles about these formats being the perfect storm, just as we were reaching a market saturation of surround sound systems in people's homes. The argument went that these formats were riding the wave of HT buying witnessed across the industry. And let's not forget that while Laserdisk players are no longer made, more and more quality players are being introduced supporting SACD and to a lesser extent DVD-A.

So what happened? you nailed it on the head: you could not copy them. Yes, we can argue ad-infinitum about whether that was truly their undoing, but the more interesting comparison here is that no one really has hacked HD-DVD or BR in a way that can be widely exploited. And for all the evils that bootlegging might conjure up, from starving artists to links to terrorism and drugs to the possibility that it will grow hair on the palms of your hands, we cannot ignore the possibility that this may be any format's greatest impediment to market saturation. After all, it was the very reason DOS & Windows spread like wildfire throughout the world, that blank cassette sales outnumbered original recording sales in some years, and that, regardless of what the MPAA/RIAA may want you to believe, it made American pop culture the world standard from the deepest jungles of Indonesia to the plateaus of the Andes.

This is where the greatest threat to these formats is, IMO: downloaded content. Downloads' greatest advantage over the greedy copy protection schemes (remember the Sony root-kit scandal?) of HD-DVD and BR, is convenience. I will even go so far as saying that below-DVD quality content such as what is growing like wildfire with the iMovie and the X-box, is eating into the profits of the hi-def formats. Ask any average Joe at BB or CC, what they would like more: unlimited and free access to 24 episodes via download at standard TV quality or the complete collection on HD-DVD / BR at outrageous cost to his pocketbook? It wouldn't even be about the money either. If he even knows what these formats are, he'll prefer the convenience of just clicking a few buttons on the remote and watch 6 episodes, commercial-free in a row than having to get up to switch disks. Heck, he'll probably prefer having it on his iPhone! This doesn't even get into the discussion of which format average Joe would choose.

The bottom line is that this format war is killing hi-def - like the proverbial snake eating its own tail. Decades off? I doubt it. If Japan has 60Mb/s download speeds (I believe that's enough for a full BR download in about 5 minutes), then it's only a matter of a few short years before the iMovie/x-box subscriptions start offering usable HD content for download here in the US. Given all the other stuff that is going on in the world right now that will distract people in the coming year, this x-mas season is crucial. I'll paraphrase from Drumline: "whatever the beef is between those two, they better grill it up and eat it," because if they don't, there's an eager new drummer sitting on the sidelines who can dance circles around them.

I agree with you about downloads, but even more threatening is VOD.
It allows pause, FF,REVERSE, and saving for 24hrs.
And its killing the rental market in my town.
Downloading is a bit in the future, but netflix is advertising it already.
You need terabytes of storage? Not really, just erase something like a DVR when you're through, not to mention that 500 gb of hard drive is available now, for 125$ yet.
And zip drives that will hold an entire movie, properly compressed.
Windows vista reccomends 2gb of memory, 4gb preffered, how long before we see a "format" based on a solid state memory? Or a small 30gb HD like you see in some
mp3 players?
Both sides are acting like the optical disc is going to be the standard for decades,
when the first optical disc, CD, is dying a fast death.
Both formats co-exsisting? heck, ONE might not make it.
But if one does it will be Blu ray.
The HDDVD camp is kinda like the black knight in the holy grail.
Cut off his arm, just a scratch, chop off his leg, just a flesh wound.
Wonder when they will see what is becoming increasingly obvious:1:

[nightflier]

Sir T.,

I think your perspective might be a little too focused on the inside of the industry. For example, what happened behind the scenes with SACD & DVD-A is not at all what the consumer was privy to. I personally saw the selection of both formats increase in the stores, and catalogs like Acoustic Sounds get thicker and the number of players on store shelves grow. As someone who picked SACD after quite a bit of research, you can imagine my reaction when I saw the DVD-A selection outpace SACD. Likewise there was a lot of buzz online and in the trade rags about the new formats and how superior they were. The concept of the perfect storm was from an article in Sound & Vision, I believe.

Likewise the assumption that PCs were shipped with Windows pre-installed is only part of the picture. It may have been what was reported in the industry, but ten years ago, most PCs were home-built or shipped without an OS. DOS or Windows was a separate line item on the receipts (I know, I still have them). The rise in cassette popularity, whether for cars or not, was because it allowed people to copy LPs and other original cassettes so that they can be played elsewhere. This freedom is what is being taken away and is what is angering consumer.

"We don't live in that world anymore"? That's not true at all. Copy protection is not a fact of life, just look at why apple was pressured into removing DRM from so many of their downloads. People were pissed. Copy protection is not "here to stay" if people won't pay for the copy protected products. It is actually a huge irritation to people who want to have their music and movies in another format. People are ripping the commentaries and extra languages out of movies because they need to fit them on their iPods.

Copy protection is like a loose condom, a little vaseline and it falls appart. The Great Wall of China worked for about ten years or so, until the Mongol hordes figured out they could just walk around it. If there is one consistent truth about security, it is that it will be defeated. DVD's were cracked by some guy who just wanted to watch them on his Linux box. He was irritated by the fact that the license and the studios would not allow this, so he found a way around the "wall." And the jackals of the movie industry, the MPAA, tried to crucify him. One commentator said he should get the death penalty (well we know who butters his bread). All these abuses are a source of anger and frustration by the consumers. Think this is bad here in the US? Try asking someone in Europe what they think of Sony or Disney or Fox.

The same restrictions that existed on SACD/DVD-A now exist with HD-DVD/BR. The consumer can't copy it, move it to his iPhone, or to his SUV so his kids will be quiet. And if it just takes too much time to walk around a big enough obstacle, people eventually give up - not because they can't but because there are other options. HD movies are in grave risk of becoming niche technologies, much like SACD and Laserdisks. They are being threatened by downloaded non-HD content today and will be eclipsed by true HD content in a few short years because people will have become accustomed to the process during the non-HD period.

And HD isn't all that important. For all the extra goodies that BR & HD-DVD have to offer, for most people, it's pointless. Do you think Joe Sixpack, although perfectly happy with his HDTV to watch SundayTicket, is going to say: "hmmm, tonight I think I'll watch Bridges Of Madison County in French - might be fun..." No! It's all bloatware. You & I and the rest of the audio-videophiles here might Ooo and Ahhh over true DTS or 1080p, but our teen-age kids have no interest in them, and they are tomorrow's consumers.

You say that downloaded movies are in decline. Maybe for what can be measured: paid content, but is that the whole picture? What about downloaded free content like TV shows? What about Bit-Torrent downloaded video (legal & illegal)? What about streamed video? Personally, I get in a little R&R at lunch time by watching John Stewart on YouTube in a 2" window, and guess what, it's just as funny. Oprah, the news, South Park, and Porn don't need to be in HD and with thundering surround sound. Does Joe Sixpack want everyone in the neighborhood to know he's having his way with himself while watching a 20' tall Jenna getting freaky? I doubt it.

As I've already told Wooch I can't argue against the numbers - they may be partially true. But even stats can only give part of the picture. In Confessions of an Economic Hitman, Perkins says that statistics are twisted to reveal economic falsehoods as a matter of practice. Just as this was true in Chile, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia on a global scale, do you really think stats are not slightly skewed to show a particular point of view here in the good ol' US of A? How confident are we in the numbers we get from inside the industry? Remember those poll numbers before the last elections? Sure there are impartial sources, but that may not be the whole picture. Sales figures are only true for what is sold. They don't necessarily reflect what is seen in HD or SD.

I'll even wager that in 2 years people will be able to download or stream 1080p movies and content at will. If Japan has already figured out the technology, it's not like we have to invent it from scratch. Maybe we should copy it from them (wow, talk about role reversals). Who will pay for it? Well, how much money do Rummy, Cheney and Bush have? They won't need it when they're in jail. Personally, I'm of the opinion that our politicians should spend a little less time worrying about what's going on in the bedroom and a little more worrying about our infrastructure. If they don't like it, I'm going to vote them out.

But the white elephant here is the companies that profit from this. Most consumers believe that they already have this figured out and are holding off until they can figure out how to squeeze the most money out of it. The RIAA/MPAA are a perfect example of institutions created to hold back progress, criminalize minor transgressors, and spread FUD long enough until a new profit model can be created that will screw the consumer out of more money. Not true, you say? So what? Even if it's not true, the consumer believes it. And until he is convinced otherwise, he'll hold out for something that gives him greater freedoms, or at least the semblance of more freedom.

[musicman1999]

The reason that HD downloads are way off is that the infrastucture does not exist to handle that kind of bandwidth.In order for this to be a viable large scale alternative all the telephone cables in North America need to be replaced.That will take a while and cost a lot.

bill

[nightflier]

The reason that HD downloads are way off is that the infrastucture does not exist to handle that kind of bandwidth.In order for this to be a viable large scale alternative all the telephone cables in North America need to be replaced.That will take a while and cost a lot. bill

Cable can be aggregated. I believe that's what they did initially in Japan. Furthermore, different mediums can be aggregated together, so that for example, you could have your wireless phone join in on the effort to download that movie, while it is charging. Or you could borrow time from your employer's internet connection during off-hours and redirect it to you slingbox or PVR.

But more readily available will be the choice of what to download. For example, you could download an HD show w/o the stuff you don't need. Don't need Spanish language in DTS? No problemo. Don't care for the commentaries but you do want the deleted scenes? Just select from a checkbox list what you want.

And the infrastructure is changing, too. Fiber to the home is becoming more readily available in affluent neighborhoods. What is really hampering us here, is our dogged reliance on competition. If politicians actually did something useful like support standards bodies rather than their lobbyists, things would go a lot smoother in adopting faster standards. What I find striking is that for developed nations, the more "socialist" a government is (now don't start crying), the faster the internet access is - isn't that a kick in the jewels? Now, if the friggin' Canadians can surf twice as fast, why can't that happen here, 'Ay?

Are they smarter than us?

[musicman1999]

Why yes we are thank you.You see our socialist government gives everyone free medical care so our national iq is eight percent higher.

bill

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sir T.,

I think your perspective might be a little too focused on the inside of the industry. For example, what happened behind the scenes with SACD & DVD-A is not at all what the consumer was privy to. I personally saw the selection of both formats increase in the stores, and catalogs like Acoustic Sounds get thicker and the number of players on store shelves grow. As someone who picked SACD after quite a bit of research, you can imagine my reaction when I saw the DVD-A selection outpace SACD. Likewise there was a lot of buzz online and in the trade rags about the new formats and how superior they were. The concept of the perfect storm was from an article in Sound & Vision, I believe.

It is said that the devil is in the details, and details cannot be found on the periphery. You must look on the inside of the industry to get the details. You may have seen SACD and DVD-A catalog growing, but the disc were not selling in great numbers. Players that could play both formats came too late to really save either. Sales of MC music hit its peak in 2003-2004, and even at its peak, was a drop in the bucket in terms of overall sales. While you could find SACD's and DVD-A at stores like Tower Records and Best Buy, not many other record or entertainment stores carried them. Online was the only place that either could be found in great numbers, but music sales WERE a brick and motar staple.

You made my point exactly. Sound and Vision may have called it the perfect storm, but in reality is was a perfect dud. That audio press got more mileage out of MC music than the consumer or retail did. They had tons of debates, talking points, and graphs that sold many a magazine. But all of the hype could not be translated into disc sales.



Likewise the assumption that PCs were shipped with Windows pre-installed is only part of the picture. It may have been what was reported in the industry, but ten years ago, most PCs were home-built or shipped without an OS. DOS or Windows was a separate line item on the receipts (I know, I still have them). The rise in cassette popularity, whether for cars or not, was because it allowed people to copy LPs and other original cassettes so that they can be played elsewhere. This freedom is what is being taken away and is what is angering consumer.

I think your dates are quite off. Ten years ago windows was pre-installed in every computer that left the factory. In 1993 there were 25 million windows users. In 1995 windows 95 was released and sold 1 million copies in 4 days. Most all computer manufacturers were pre-installing windows in the computer by 1995. The only time a consumer had to go out and purchase windows as a seperate line item was for upgrades. Windows was actually launched in 1983. Windows are on 95% of the worlds computers, and mostly all of those were pre-installed at the factory.



"We don't live in that world anymore"? That's not true at all. Copy protection is not a fact of life, just look at why apple was pressured into removing DRM from so many of their downloads. People were pissed. Copy protection is not "here to stay" if people won't pay for the copy protected products. It is actually a huge irritation to people who want to have their music and movies in another format. People are ripping the commentaries and extra languages out of movies because they need to fit them on their iPods.

When it comes to movies and music to Ebooks, copy protection is on all of them. If you want downloaded music legally, it will have DRM on it. That IS a fact of life that we cannot escape. Let's be truthful, music without copy protection is a minority even on Itunes. Not every tune on the website is DRM free. Only a few record companies are allowing their music to be downloaded without DRM. The majority of legal downloads have DRM on it. So it's a way of life we have to live with if we want to download legally. All legal movie downloads have DRM as well, so there is no place for the consumer to get free of it unless it is downloaded illegally. This is the world we live in, and its not gonna change thanks to the internet, and internet piracy.


Copy protection is like a loose condom, a little vaseline and it falls appart. The Great Wall of China worked for about ten years or so, until the Mongol hordes figured out they could just walk around it. If there is one consistent truth about security, it is that it will be defeated. DVD's were cracked by some guy who just wanted to watch them on his Linux box. He was irritated by the fact that the license and the studios would not allow this, so he found a way around the "wall." And the jackals of the movie industry, the MPAA, tried to crucify him. One commentator said he should get the death penalty (well we know who butters his bread). All these abuses are a source of anger and frustration by the consumers. Think this is bad here in the US? Try asking someone in Europe what they think of Sony or Disney or Fox.

Well, if copy protection was nothing more than a loose condom, then why didn't SACD and DVD-A get knocked up? Why aren't HD DVD and bluray files proliferated all over the net? Copy protection is not fullproof. It can be cracked. AACS was cracked months after HD DVD release. The issue is not the cracking, but the proliferation of the files. BD+ makes sure that you cannot steal its code. And if you are good enough to do it, if you try and playback the files, it bricks your player. If you try and alter the player, it bricks it. So the power doesn't have to be fully in the copy protection scheme, it can be in the authetification process as well. You may not be able to stop someone from cracking the code, but you sure can slow them down, and even discourage it if one knew it was going to brick his computer or media player.


The same restrictions that existed on SACD/DVD-A now exist with HD-DVD/BR. The consumer can't copy it, move it to his iPhone, or to his SUV so his kids will be quiet. And if it just takes too much time to walk around a big enough obstacle, people eventually give up - not because they can't but because there are other options. HD movies are in grave risk of becoming niche technologies, much like SACD and Laserdisks. They are being threatened by downloaded non-HD content today and will be eclipsed by true HD content in a few short years because people will have become accustomed to the process during the non-HD period.

I think you are going waaaaay overboard here. As long as anyone can insert a disc into a player, press play, and it plays, the public is not all up in arms about copy protection. The only folks that are up in arms about copy protection are the folks that want to burn movies, and the pirates. Most of the time when you find folks burning movies, they are distributing them to their friends and family. This is illegal no matter how you slice it, and no matter how right you think you are. You bought a single disc for a set price, and what you pay does not guarantee you the right to copy and distribute it for free. There is no need to copy a movie in most cases. I have over 2200 DVD's, 175 blurays, and 146 HD DVD's, and I have never had a reason to copy any one of them at any time. When I travel, I take the DVD's that I want to watch. The studios(no matter how much we dislike it) have a right to protect their intellectual property that the have invested millions in from proliferation for free. If they didn't act this way, then the value of that property is greatly diminshed.

For many folks downloads are not attractive. I have had too many hard drive crashes that has left me without important documents to leave my movies on a hard drive. If the hard drive crashes, you lose your entire investment, and they will not give you a second download for free. I would rather have the physical disc in my hand because that pretty much guarantees that I can play my disc anytime, and anywhere without the worry of it getting lost. If the disc does get lost, DVD's are so cheap I'll just go buy another. The average joe is not complaining about copy protection because many of them don't see it, don't hear it, and it doesn't effect the enjoyment of the movie.


And HD isn't all that important. For all the extra goodies that BR & HD-DVD have to offer, for most people, it's pointless. Do you think Joe Sixpack, although perfectly happy with his HDTV to watch SundayTicket, is going to say: "hmmm, tonight I think I'll watch Bridges Of Madison County in French - might be fun..." No! It's all bloatware. You & I and the rest of the audio-videophiles here might Ooo and Ahhh over true DTS or 1080p, but our teen-age kids have no interest in them, and they are tomorrow's consumers.

I am going to give you a little flashback. When DVD was first introduced, there were people just like you saying that DVD was not important, and the better picture and sound quality over VHS is not important. VHS never had extra's so why are they so important? Well, DVD overtook VHS in sales just three years after it was introduced to the market. Alot of naysayers just like you were eating crow pie. HD DVD has been around just a year and a half, and there are more titles on shelves at this point than there were DVD's at this point in its history. There are more HD DVD players sold now, that DVD players at this point in its history. Bluray really solidly came on the market about a year ago. There are far more players now(thanks to the PS3) in the field than there were DVD players at this point in its history. Bluray has pressed well over a million disc worldwide at this point. DVD was even close to this at this same point in its history. There are approximately 500,000 HD DVD players in homes right now. DVD had less than this a year and a half after introduction. Bluray has over 1.8 million bluray players in consumer homes, and DVD wasn't even close to this a year after its introduction.


You say that downloaded movies are in decline. Maybe for what can be measured: paid content, but is that the whole picture? What about downloaded free content like TV shows?

TV shows are free anyway. You can get it off the air.


What about Bit-Torrent downloaded video (legal & illegal)?

You have to pay for bit torrent movies now, and its been tracking as a decline. Illegally, it cannot be determined whether its growing or in decline.


What about streamed video?

Streamed video you have to pay for. There is no site that is going to allow you to tie up its servers for free. Most streamed video is porn, and that showed a slight decline in 2006.


Personally, I get in a little R&R at lunch time by watching John Stewart on YouTube in a 2" window, and guess what, it's just as funny. Oprah, the news, South Park, and Porn don't need to be in HD and with thundering surround sound. Does Joe Sixpack want everyone in the neighborhood to know he's having his way with himself while watching a 20' tall Jenna getting freaky? I doubt it.

What you enjoy doing cannot be construed as a widespread thing. Its what you like to do. I can find 5 more people who have no interest in watching anything on a two inch screen unless its a menu, or a still picture. Youtube probably looks pretty good on a two inch window because the video is so highly compressed. Try watching it on a 65" HDTV.
Most marketing experts disagree with you about TV news in high definition. Almost all stations in large cities now broadcast their news in high definition. There must be a reason for that if not just for marketing purposes.

If joe6pack covered his mouth with the other hand, then nobody but him would know he is watching Jenna on a big screen. Somebody must want porn in HD because it sure is available.


As I've already told Wooch I can't argue against the numbers - they may be partially true. But even stats can only give part of the picture. In Confessions of an Economic Hitman, Perkins says that statistics are twisted to reveal economic falsehoods as a matter of practice.

So because this one person made this quote, we should all abandon using any kind of words or numbers? Utterly rediculous. If the idea of using statistics to fool people was your goal, then it can be easily done. If you goal is to use statistics to gauge trends, then its invaluable. The Bible can be twisted to reveal spritual falsehood if that was the intent. A textbook can be twisted to reveal educational falsehoods if that is the intent. It is not the statistics that is the problem, it's the intent.



Just as this was true in Chile, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia on a global scale, do you really think stats are not slightly skewed to show a particular point of view here in the good ol' US of A?

If that was the intent, yes. If that was not the intent, no.


How confident are we in the numbers we get from inside the industry?

If that industry intent was to survive and thrive, then very confident. If the numbers were ment to distort or two twist, not very confident. It all goes back to the intent. Do I rely on information I get from my industry sources? Yes I do, because the intent is not to deceive anyone, its to inform. Most folks that take the position you are taking, are people who cannot get access to the information. It makes it easier to dismiss the facts when someone else has the information, and you don't.


Remember those poll numbers before the last elections? Sure there are impartial sources, but that may not be the whole picture. Sales figures are only true for what is sold. They don't necessarily reflect what is seen in HD or SD.

The connection you are attempting to make cannot be made by this example. Poll numbers are guesses and estimates. They are not actual votes counted. Since getting poll numbers happens BEFORE the election, things can change very quickly. Sales figures are after the fact numbers that are exact. Sales figures don't change unless they were wrong in the first place.

If PQ and AQ were so unimportant to the average DVD buyer, then VHS would have been more than good enough. In reality it is important to many, or DVD would not have been adopted so quickly by so many. If we didn't have two competing format creating market confusion, I am not so sure we would be having this discussion. We know this from the DVD introduction. When DIVX and standard DVD were both on the market, neither flourished. When DIVX exited the market, DVD took off like a shot, inspite of the naysayers that said VHS and Laserdisc is good enough.


I'll even wager that in 2 years people will be able to download or stream 1080p movies and content at will. If Japan has already figured out the technology, it's not like we have to invent it from scratch. Maybe we should copy it from them (wow, talk about role reversals). Who will pay for it? Well, how much money do Rummy, Cheney and Bush have? They won't need it when they're in jail. Personally, I'm of the opinion that our politicians should spend a little less time worrying about what's going on in the bedroom and a little more worrying about our infrastructure. If they don't like it, I'm going to vote them out.

This is a foolish bet and not worth my time. It has already been said that this internet could not support mass market downloading. If it was attempted, it would just clog the system. It took years to build the infrastucture we currently have, and you think it will take just two years to build another. You have more balls than I with this thinking. There are far too many details to be worked out to get the job done in two years. That's a fact my friend.


But the white elephant here is the companies that profit from this. Most consumers believe that they already have this figured out and are holding off until they can figure out how to squeeze the most money out of it. The RIAA/MPAA are a perfect example of institutions created to hold back progress, criminalize minor transgressors, and spread FUD long enough until a new profit model can be created that will screw the consumer out of more money. Not true, you say? So what? Even if it's not true, the consumer believes it. And until he is convinced otherwise, he'll hold out for something that gives him greater freedoms, or at least the semblance of more freedom.

Alot of folks believe that Iraq was involved in the Twin Towers tragedy even in the face of facts. I think more people are worried about the middle class surviving than thinking about what the RIAA and the MPAA are doing. People know that corporation are screwing them, but it doesn't stop them from supporting these corporations. Look at Walmart. Everyone knows they screw their employees, and the American worker. They still have made the company the largest retailer in the world. The American public has no problem screwing themslelves with their own decisions. The midwest could clearly see that as Walmart stores proliferated throughout the region, manufacturering jobs were dissapearing. They saw whole business district dry up to dust, and they still went to Walmart. They watch the politician they voted into office screw them by supporting illegal immigration, but they never recalled, or even called their rep to the carpet. These days the American public is much more efficient at screwing themselves than a corporate conglomerate could ever be.

[PeruvianSkies]

This thread is insanely detailed and deep......took me forever to read through all of the commentary going on back and forth...wow. I am sure most people just skim over the stuff though.

[nightflier]

Sir T.,

If I give up on this debate, it'll be because of sheer exhaustion, not because I am coming around to your way of thinking. Again, with all the respect in the world, I don't think your facts add up. The examples you present, while well argued, only deal with what is legal, public, and from "official" sources. I believe that there are far more unknowns in this issue than is apparent.

"While you could find SACD's and DVD-A at stores like Tower Records and Best Buy, not many other record or entertainment stores carried them. Online was the only place that either could be found in great numbers, but music sales WERE a brick and motar staple. "

This may very well have been the case, but that does not explain why catalogs were increasing. If sales were stagnant, why did shelfspace, the number of articles, the number of players, and the size of online catalogs increase?

"Sound and Vision may have called it the perfect storm, but in reality is was a perfect dud. That audio press got more mileage out of MC music than the consumer or retail did. They had tons of debates, talking points, and graphs that sold many a magazine. But all of the hype could not be translated into disc sales."

While this may be true, there were very few if any naysayers at the time. Are you telling me that almost every magazine and newspaper writer was on the take?

"I think your dates are quite off. Ten years ago windows was pre-installed in every computer that left the factory. In 1993 there were 25 million windows users. In 1995 windows 95 was released and sold 1 million copies in 4 days. Most all computer manufacturers were pre-installing windows in the computer by 1995. The only time a consumer had to go out and purchase windows as a seperate line item was for upgrades. Windows was actually launched in 1983. Windows are on 95% of the worlds computers, and mostly all of those were pre-installed at the factory."

This is a perfect example of just looking at "official" numbers. Windows was only pre-installed on computers from the big manufacturers (Dell, HP, Compaq, etc.) but the number of white box systems sold in the US was about 1/4 of total sales. And that's for the US. - outside the US, the number was much higher. These people had to buy Windows separately. I was actually involved with sales to the UC of Cal. system. We purchased all our Windows licenses through a Microsoft volume contract, and I can tell you that well over 70% of the Windows boxes at UC at the time were licensed this way: separate line items. It was not until '97 that Microsoft mandated that only upgrades would be sold both to the retail and the high-volume channels, meaning that people had to buy a system with Windows pre-installed.

I also worked on a research project looking at the risks of piracy. I don't remember the exact figures, but I know they don't match up with yours. Our estimates were that perhaps 30% of Windows licenses in the US were pirated. Worldwide the numbers were as high as 60%. The idea that every license on every PC was pre-installed is ridiculous.

"When it comes to movies and music to Ebooks, copy protection is on all of them. If you want downloaded music legally, it will have DRM on it. That IS a fact of life that we cannot escape. Let's be truthful, music without copy protection is a minority even on Itunes. Not ever tune on the website is DRM free. Only a few record companies are allowing their music to be downloaded without DRM. The majority of legal downloads have DRM on it. So its a way of life we have to live with if we want to download legally. All legal movie downloads have DRM as well, so there is no place for the consumer to get free of it unless it is downloaded illegally. This is the world we live in, and its not gonna change thanks to the internet, and internet piracy."

Competely false. I remember reading that the RIAA estimated in 2003 that 90% of MP3 music was illegal - most of this music came from Napster users when the RIAA couldn't shut them down. I know that was a while ago, but those files are DRM-free and they are still out there, on iPods, music servers, and the Internet (that's the beauty of digital, it never gets old). I also happen to know that even today younger people trade files like rabits in heat. All it takes is to plug two players to the same computer. Most CDs are ripped as soon as they are purchased. If they have DRM on them, it is stripped off. I'm not saying I condone it, but its far more common than you think. I also don't know what the sales figure are for non-DRM files, but I can tell you that if they are not high, it's because they have no DRM! Only one person needs to download it.

"Well, if copy protection was nothing more than a loose condom, then why didn't SACD and DVD-A get knocked up? Why aren't HD DVD and bluray files proliferated all over the net?"

Simple: they were not around long enough nor did they become enough of a share of the market. Windows wasn't being widely cracked until it hit version 3.0.

"Copy protection is not fullproof. It can be cracked. AACS was cracked months after HD DVD release. The issue is not the cracking, but the proliferation of the files. BD+ makes sure that you cannot steal its code. And if you are good enough to do it, if you try and playback the files, it bricks your player. If you try and alter the player, it bricks it. So the power doesn't have to be fully in the copy protection scheme, it can be in the authetification process as well. You may not be able to stop someone from cracking the code, but you sure can slow them down, and even discourage it if one knew it was going to brick his computer or media player."

This is not a discouragement - it's a challenge. It will happen sooner or later. The only way to guard against copying is to make the content less valuable. Nobody cracks TV shows because they are free - if low-res movies (YouTube sized) and low-res music (128Kbps or less) were free as well, the number of hacks would be way down. Even DVD cracking is down, not because it's hard, but because it's so easy to get the movie illegally, if you really want it. A BlueRay disk, especially if it hasn't yet been released to the public, would be worth a lot in "online cash." There are plenty of people working on this. It's not a question of if it will happen but when it will happen.

"I think you are going waaaaay overboard here. As long as anyone can insert a disc into a player, press play, and it plays, the public is not all up in arms about copy protection. The only folks that are up in arms about copy protection are the folks that what to burn movies, and the pirates."

Not true. The people that are up in arms are the millions of consumers who don't believe they should pay for each medium that they need a song/movie in. If you bought the HD-DVD disk, why should you then also have to buy the DVD because your car doesn't have an HD-DVD player? Or having to buy the Shoutcast version of your favorite MP3? Etc.

"Most of the time when you find folks burning movies, they are distributing them to their friends and family. This is illegal no matter how you slice it, and no matter how right you think you are. You bought a single disc for a set price, and what you pay does not guarantee you the right to copy and distribute it for free. There is no need to copy a movie in most cases. I have over 2200 DVD's, 175 blurays, and 146 HD DVD's, and I have never had a reason to copy any one of them at any time. When I travel, I take the DVD's that I want to watch. The studios(no matter how much we dislike it) have a right to protect their intellectual property that the have invested millions in from proliferation for free. If they didn't act this way, then the value of that property is greatly diminshed."

I have no opinion on the matter, really. I'm still DVD only and I don't really care to rip my music unless I have to fly. I guess I'm a bit old-fashioned that way. Do you own the same movies on BR/HD-DVD that you have on DVD? What about VHS & Laserdisk? That must really be a kick in the pants! I don't know, maybe you have that kind of money, but most people don't. And what happens when a new format comes out and all your BRs, HD-DVDs and your players become the proverbial "bricks"? What if I'm right and downloads / paid subscription services become the norm? Will you buy them all again?

"For many folks downloads are not attractive. I have had too many hard drive crashes that has left me without important documents to leave my movies on a hard drive. If the hard drive crashes, you lose your entire investment, and they will not give you a second download for free."

Most people have had a hard drive crash at one time or another (interestingly, in the seven years that I've been using Linux, that's not happened on those machines). But you can always do backups (I do). Funny thing is people don't ever worry about their Tivo/PVR hard drive crashing or their music server blowing up - it's pretty much the same technology. This really is just fear mongering - how many hard drives have you really lost all your data from? Actually people never worried about their VHSes or Cassettes getting demagnitized too much either. That's because for most people (with the exception of some people here) the stuff gets old and stale over time so people don't really care to keep it - often times, they share it online to trade for something better.

"I would rather have the physical disc in my hand because that pretty much guarantees that I can play my disc anytime, and anywhere without the worry of it getting lost. If the disc does get lost, DVD's are so cheap I'll just go buy another. The average joe is not complaining about copy protection because many of them don't see it, don't hear it, and it doesn't effect the enjoyment of the movie."

Actually the average Joe is irritated by it. Sure this frustration won't be written up in the industry reports, the a/v mags, their websites, or any of the "official" sources. Industry "insiders" probably don't even realize this, or would rather not have anyone know it, so they're not going to talk about it either. But if you search online blogs, websites like the EFF and non-mainstream news, you'll find a lot of discontents.

"I am going to give you a little flashback. When DVD was first introduced, there were people just like you saying that DVD was not important, and the better picture and sound quality over VHS is not important. VHS never had extra's so why are they so important?"

No flashback needed. I never said BR/HD-DVD were not important - technologically they are very compelling to me. It's the extras that are not important. Aside from Film majors in college, very few people watch them.

"Well, DVD overtook VHS in sales just three years after it was introduced to the market. Alot of naysayers just like you were eating crow pie. HD DVD has been around just a year and a half, and their are more titles on shelves at this point than there were DVD's at this point in its history. There are more HD DVD players sold now, that DVD players at this point in its history. Bluray really solidly came on the market about a year ago. There are far more players now(thanks to the PS3) in the field than there were DVD players at this point in its history. Bluray has pressed well over a million disc worldwide at this point. DVD was even close to this at this same point in its history. There are approximately 500,000 HD DVD players in homes right now. DVD had less than this a year and a half after introduction. Bluray has over 1.8 million bluray players in consumer homes, and DVD wasn't even close to this a year after its introduction."

How many times does this falsehood have to be repeated? Things change much faster than they did 10 years ago - that's just a fact of society. What you describe as slower penetration then means very little today. Also do those BR numbers include PS3 players? How can you know that those owners watch BR on them? Yes X-box has an HD-DVD player add-on, but there are far fewer of those in people's homes, but at least we know that those are used exclusively for HD-DVD watching. The only usable statistics are rental and sales figures, with the caveat that those are still "statistics" (see below).

"TV shows are free anyway."

My point as well. That's content that is not reflected in your numbers.

"You can get it off the air."

Ever heard of a Podcasts?

"You have to pay for bit torrent movies now, and its been tracking as a decline. Illegally it cannot be determined with its growing or in decline."

But it is estimated that illegal bit torrents outnumber legal ones 10 to 1.

"Streamed video you have to pay for. There is no site that is going to allow you to tie up its servers for free. Most streamed video is porn, and that showed a slight decline in 2006."

Wow, I didn't know that CNN, CBS, ABC, and NBC mostly streamed porn. Since it's all free, I'll have to block those sites from my kid's computers.

"What you enjoy doing cannot be construed as a widespread thing. Its what you like to do. I can find 5 more people who have no interest in watching anything on a two inch screen unless its a menu, or a still picture. Youtube probably looks pretty good on a two inch window because the video is so highly compressed."

Ever consider how many people watch YouTube? It's by far the most popular content site on the internet. Even Myspace is replete with YouTube links (and I'm pretty sure they're gaining puopularity here on AR). I guess those millions of viewers are statistically insignificant? Interesting stats, then.

"Try watching it on a 65" HDTV."

People don't do that. What I'm trying to explain is that YouTube makes the general public expect the convenience of downloaded and streamed content. It won't be a big leap from there to get these same people to switch to downloaded content on their TVs when higher quality downloads are available using their existing gear. That's very different from making them go and buy a BR player, new cables, new disks, and possibly new TVs.

"Most marketing experts disagree with you about news in high definition. Almost all stations in large cities now broadcast their news in high definition. There must be a reason for that if not just for marketing purposes."

When Tivo, Cable, PS3 & X-box users can download HD movies for the same price as the current SD movies, this whole debate will be over. "Blue Ray, was that some kind of fish? Oh wait a minute, it was that DVD-thing that went the way of the dodo, right? Boy do I feel sorry for all the people that bought into that!"

"If joe6pack covered his mouth with the other hand, then nobody but him would know he is watching Jenna on a big screen."

Let's hope he remembers to pull the blinds.

"Somebody must want porn in HD because it sure is available."

My guess? It's the novelty thing. Is it selling better that regular movies (as a ratio to SD sales)? If it is, then I didn't know that.

"So because this one person made this quote, we should all abandon using any kind of words or numbers? Utterly rediculous."

No, but if you read the book, it's pretty damning: just about every single foreign aid package from the US in the last 50 years used fraudulent numbers to benefit American business at the cost of millions of lives - the kind of abuse that would make Pol Pot blush. It's not the same as the numbers we are looking at here, of course, but there are plenty of news sources for equally disturbing information. You can even search your movie collection for titles Silkwood, The Insider, Erin Brockovitch, Thank you for Smoking, and Sicko for evidence that the "official" corporate press release isn't exactly truthful. And bringing it back around to our discussion: the disks that are sold available on both formats - it's not like we're talking about a lot of fudging to make a point that one sells better than the other.

"If the idea of using statistics to fool people was your goal, then it can be easily done. If you goal is to use statistics to guage trends, then its invaluable. The Bible can be twisted to reveal spritual falsehood if that was the intent. A textbook can be twisted to reveal educational falsehoods if that is the intent. It is not the statistics that is the problem, it's the intent....If that was the intent, yes. If that was not the intent, no....If that industry intent was to survive and thrive, then very confident. If the numbers were ment to distort or two twist, not very confident. It all goes back to the intent. Do I rely on information I get from my industry sources? Yes I do, because the intent is not to deceive anyone, its to inform. Most folks that take the position you are taking, are people who cannot get access to the information. It makes it easier to dismiss the facts when someone else has the information, and you don't."

Don't be questioning the word of God, now. You're on your own to defend that one.

Regarding intent, that's precisely my point - there could very well be an intent to mislead. How much is this whole industry worth? Are you going to convince me that they're any different from the multinationals who lied to the rest of the world for half a century? Actually, some of them are those very same companies. Wait a minute, didn't you say that the mags and papers lied about SACD and DVD-A? Why would this be any different? Heck, I would say that the mags and papers are even more beholden to the media conglomerates now than they were when SACD and DVD-A had our attention.

"The connection you are attempting to make cannot be made by this example. Poll numbers are guesses and estimates. They are not actual votes counted. Since getting poll numbers happens BEFORE the election, things can change very quickly. Sales figures are after the fact numbers that are exact. Sales figures don't change unless they were wrong in the first place."

I was talking about how the exit polls were so inconsistent with the results. Ever heard of a state called Ohio? It may come as a surprise, but it's now been clearly shown that Kerry carried the state handily, just as the exit polls showed, but somehow that's not who was elected. I'm not a cheerleader for either side, but the numbers don't add up.

Sales figures are also estimates. And do they include returns, second-hand sales, promotional freebies, the grey market, the black market, and illegal copying? Nope. With BR and HD-DVD they might be slightly more accurate because they haven't been widely cracked, but that's a temporary security. With sales of regular DVDs, music CDs, online downloads, steaming video, and all the other media that we've been discussing, "official" statistics are much more questionable than that. It might very well be that sales figures show less than half of what's really changing hands.

"If PQ and AQ were so unimportant to the average DVD buyer, then VHS would have been more than good enough. In reality it is important to many, or DVD would not have been adopted so quickly by so many. If we didn't have two competing format creating market confusion, I am not so sure we would be having this discussion. We know this from the DVD introduction. When DIVX and standard DVD were both on the market, neither flourished. When DIVX exited the market, DVD took off like a shot, inspite of the naysayers that said VHS and Laserdisc is good enough."

Maybe maybe not. Are we certain, with all the other factors that are possible, that it was DIVx exiting the market that was the reason for DVD's meteoric rise? Maybe you're right, but I wouldn't say that unequivocally.

"This is a foolish bet and not worth my time. It has already been said that this internet could not support mass market downloading. If it was attempted, it would just clog the system. It took years to build the infrastucture we currently have, and you think it will take just two years to build another. You have more balls than I with this thinking. There are far too many details to be worked out to get the job done in two years. That's a fact my friend."

I was also said early on, that the Internet was a fad. Microsoft completely missed that boat. Remember how hard they had to fight, both above board and under the surface, to kill off Netscape when they realized they weren't surfing at all? (boy, that sentence kind of rolled like a wave...)

I'm not saying we need to rebuild the internet. I'm saying we have to build on what we have. Ever heard of Cal-IT2? Darpa-II? If we can just convert the guns of competition to plowshares of cooperation (isn't that a great phrase?), then we can easily improve the infrastructure. We used to be the Internet authority in the world, there's no need we can't be once again. It's not just a matter of improving the hardware, by the way, we can also improve the software layers to be more efficient and less prone to bloat with technologies like the Semantic Web / Web 3.0. Heck if Al Gore becomes president, who knows what he'll pull from that lockbox, the solar-powered internet?

"Alot of folks believe that Iraq was involved in the Twin Towers tragedy even in the face of facts. I think more people are worried about the middle class surviving than thinking about what the RIAA and the MPAA are doing. People know that corporation are screwing them, but it doesn't stop them from supporting these corporations. Look at Walmart. Everyone knows they screw their employees, and the American worker. They still have made the company the largest retailer in the world. The American public has no problem screwing themslelves with their own decisions. The midwest could clearly see that as Walmart stores proliferated throughout the region, manufacturering jobs were dissapearing. They saw whole business district dry up to dust, and they still went to Walmart. They watch the politician they voted into office screw them by supporting illegal immigration, but they never recalled, or even called their rep to the carpet. These days the American public is much more efficient at screwing themselves than a corporate conglomerate could ever be."

Not every American is a Wallmart-shopping, Hummer-driving, gun-toting-NRA-member, Limbaugh/O'Reily/Hannety/Dr.Laura-worshipping ignoramous bent on ruling the world with an iron fist and willing to re-ellect indefinitely the douche-bags who screw them over and over again. After a while it starts to chaff. The rising resistance to Wallmart and other abusive companies is indicative of that. Independent news sources like Democracy Now and Free Speech TV are gaining in popularity. Among young people, it's actually cool to be a non-smoker, tech-savvy, semi-vegetarian, Prius-driving, college-educated, liberal (Oh my goodness, Maybel, he used the "L" world - we're all going to hades, now!). Speaking of religion, even major churches throughout the Bible belt are realizing that indiscriminate rendering and torture isn't really the Christian thing to do. Gee, it did take a while, didn't it?

There is reason to be depressed, yes, but there is hope as well. I'm sorry if I'm an optimist, I can't really change that. I sincerely hope that BR or HD-DVD succeeds for it's technical merits (it really is a gorgeous picture in the store). Or better yet, I'd like to see a dual-format becoming the standard. But right now, I am more inclined to believe that downloads and/or streaming content will win the day.

[PeruvianSkies]

Sir T.,

If I give up on this debate, it'll be because of sheer exhaustion, not because I am coming around to your way of thinking. Again, with all the respect in the world, I don't think your facts add up. The examples you present, while well argued, only deal with what is legal, public, and from "official" sources. I believe that there are far more unknowns in this issue than is apparent.

"While you could find SACD's and DVD-A at stores like Tower Records and Best Buy, not many other record or entertainment stores carried them. Online was the only place that either could be found in great numbers, but music sales WERE a brick and motar staple. "

This may very well have been the case, but that does not explain why catalogs were increasing. If sales were stagnant, why did shelfspace, the number of articles, the number of players, and the size of online catalogs increase?

"Sound and Vision may have called it the perfect storm, but in reality is was a perfect dud. That audio press got more mileage out of MC music than the consumer or retail did. They had tons of debates, talking points, and graphs that sold many a magazine. But all of the hype could not be translated into disc sales."

While this may be true, there were very few if any naysayers at the time. Are you telling me that almost every magazine and newspaper writer was on the take?

"I think your dates are quite off. Ten years ago windows was pre-installed in every computer that left the factory. In 1993 there were 25 million windows users. In 1995 windows 95 was released and sold 1 million copies in 4 days. Most all computer manufacturers were pre-installing windows in the computer by 1995. The only time a consumer had to go out and purchase windows as a seperate line item was for upgrades. Windows was actually launched in 1983. Windows are on 95% of the worlds computers, and mostly all of those were pre-installed at the factory."

This is a perfect example of just looking at "official" numbers. Windows was only pre-installed on computers from the big manufacturers (Dell, HP, Compaq, etc.) but the number of white box systems sold in the US was about 1/4 of total sales. And that's for the US. - outside the US, the number was much higher. These people had to buy Windows separately. I was actually involved with sales to the UC of Cal. system. We purchased all our Windows licenses through a Microsoft volume contract, and I can tell you that well over 70% of the Windows boxes at UC at the time were licensed this way: separate line items. It was not until '97 that Microsoft mandated that only upgrades would be sold both to the retail and the high-volume channels, meaning that people had to buy a system with Windows pre-installed.

I also worked on a research project looking at the risks of piracy. I don't remember the exact figures, but I know they don't match up with yours. Our estimates were that perhaps 30% of Windows licenses in the US were pirated. Worldwide the numbers were as high as 60%. The idea that every license on every PC was pre-installed is ridiculous.

"When it comes to movies and music to Ebooks, copy protection is on all of them. If you want downloaded music legally, it will have DRM on it. That IS a fact of life that we cannot escape. Let's be truthful, music without copy protection is a minority even on Itunes. Not ever tune on the website is DRM free. Only a few record companies are allowing their music to be downloaded without DRM. The majority of legal downloads have DRM on it. So its a way of life we have to live with if we want to download legally. All legal movie downloads have DRM as well, so there is no place for the consumer to get free of it unless it is downloaded illegally. This is the world we live in, and its not gonna change thanks to the internet, and internet piracy."

Competely false. I remember reading that the RIAA estimated in 2003 that 90% of MP3 music was illegal - most of this music came from Napster users when the RIAA couldn't shut them down. I know that was a while ago, but those files are DRM-free and they are still out there, on iPods, music servers, and the Internet (that's the beauty of digital, it never gets old). I also happen to know that even today younger people trade files like rabits in heat. All it takes is to plug two players to the same computer. Most CDs are ripped as soon as they are purchased. If they have DRM on them, it is stripped off. I'm not saying I condone it, but its far more common than you think. I also don't know what the sales figure are for non-DRM files, but I can tell you that if they are not high, it's because they have no DRM! Only one person needs to download it.

"Well, if copy protection was nothing more than a loose condom, then why didn't SACD and DVD-A get knocked up? Why aren't HD DVD and bluray files proliferated all over the net?"

Simple: they were not around long enough nor did they become enough of a share of the market. Windows wasn't being widely cracked until it hit version 3.0.

"Copy protection is not fullproof. It can be cracked. AACS was cracked months after HD DVD release. The issue is not the cracking, but the proliferation of the files. BD+ makes sure that you cannot steal its code. And if you are good enough to do it, if you try and playback the files, it bricks your player. If you try and alter the player, it bricks it. So the power doesn't have to be fully in the copy protection scheme, it can be in the authetification process as well. You may not be able to stop someone from cracking the code, but you sure can slow them down, and even discourage it if one knew it was going to brick his computer or media player."

This is not a discouragement - it's a challenge. It will happen sooner or later. The only way to guard against copying is to make the content less valuable. Nobody cracks TV shows because they are free - if low-res movies (YouTube sized) and low-res music (128Kbps or less) were free as well, the number of hacks would be way down. Even DVD cracking is down, not because it's hard, but because it's so easy to get the movie illegally, if you really want it. A BlueRay disk, especially if it hasn't yet been released to the public, would be worth a lot in "online cash." There are plenty of people working on this. It's not a question of if it will happen but when it will happen.

"I think you are going waaaaay overboard here. As long as anyone can insert a disc into a player, press play, and it plays, the public is not all up in arms about copy protection. The only folks that are up in arms about copy protection are the folks that what to burn movies, and the pirates."

Not true. The people that are up in arms are the millions of consumers who don't believe they should pay for each medium that they need a song/movie in. If you bought the HD-DVD disk, why should you then also have to buy the DVD because your car doesn't have an HD-DVD player? Or having to buy the Shoutcast version of your favorite MP3? Etc.

"Most of the time when you find folks burning movies, they are distributing them to their friends and family. This is illegal no matter how you slice it, and no matter how right you think you are. You bought a single disc for a set price, and what you pay does not guarantee you the right to copy and distribute it for free. There is no need to copy a movie in most cases. I have over 2200 DVD's, 175 blurays, and 146 HD DVD's, and I have never had a reason to copy any one of them at any time. When I travel, I take the DVD's that I want to watch. The studios(no matter how much we dislike it) have a right to protect their intellectual property that the have invested millions in from proliferation for free. If they didn't act this way, then the value of that property is greatly diminshed."

I have no opinion on the matter, really. I'm still DVD only and I don't really care to rip my music unless I have to fly. I guess I'm a bit old-fashioned that way. Do you own the same movies on BR/HD-DVD that you have on DVD? What about VHS & Laserdisk? That must really be a kick in the pants! I don't know, maybe you have that kind of money, but most people don't. And what happens when a new format comes out and all your BRs, HD-DVDs and your players become the proverbial "bricks"? What if I'm right and downloads / paid subscription services become the norm? Will you buy them all again?

"For many folks downloads are not attractive. I have had too many hard drive crashes that has left me without important documents to leave my movies on a hard drive. If the hard drive crashes, you lose your entire investment, and they will not give you a second download for free."

Most people have had a hard drive crash at one time or another (interestingly, in the seven years that I've been using Linux, that's not happened on those machines). But you can always do backups (I do). Funny thing is people don't ever worry about their Tivo/PVR hard drive crashing or their music server blowing up - it's pretty much the same technology. This really is just fear mongering - how many hard drives have you really lost all your data from? Actually people never worried about their VHSes or Cassettes getting demagnitized too much either. That's because for most people (with the exception of some people here) the stuff gets old and stale over time so people don't really care to keep it - often times, they share it online to trade for something better.

"I would rather have the physical disc in my hand because that pretty much guarantees that I can play my disc anytime, and anywhere without the worry of it getting lost. If the disc does get lost, DVD's are so cheap I'll just go buy another. The average joe is not complaining about copy protection because many of them don't see it, don't hear it, and it doesn't effect the enjoyment of the movie."

Actually the average Joe is irritated by it. Sure this frustration won't be written up in the industry reports, the a/v mags, their websites, or any of the "official" sources. Industry "insiders" probably don't even realize this, or would rather not have anyone know it, so they're not going to talk about it either. But if you search online blogs, websites like the EFF and non-mainstream news, you'll find a lot of discontents.

"I am going to give you a little flashback. When DVD was first introduced, there were people just like you saying that DVD was not important, and the better picture and sound quality over VHS is not important. VHS never had extra's so why are they so important?"

No flashback needed. I never said BR/HD-DVD were not important - technologically they are very compelling to me. It's the extras that are not important. Aside from Film majors in college, very few people watch them.

"Well, DVD overtook VHS in sales just three years after it was introduced to the market. Alot of naysayers just like you were eating crow pie. HD DVD has been around just a year and a half, and their are more titles on shelves at this point than there were DVD's at this point in its history. There are more HD DVD players sold now, that DVD players at this point in its history. Bluray really solidly came on the market about a year ago. There are far more players now(thanks to the PS3) in the field than there were DVD players at this point in its history. Bluray has pressed well over a million disc worldwide at this point. DVD was even close to this at this same point in its history. There are approximately 500,000 HD DVD players in homes right now. DVD had less than this a year and a half after introduction. Bluray has over 1.8 million bluray players in consumer homes, and DVD wasn't even close to this a year after its introduction."

How many times does this falsehood have to be repeated? Things change much faster than they did 10 years ago - that's just a fact of society. What you describe as slower penetration then means very little today. Also do those BR numbers include PS3 players? How can you know that those owners watch BR on them? Yes X-box has an HD-DVD player add-on, but there are far fewer of those in people's homes, but at least we know that those are used exclusively for HD-DVD watching. The only usable statistics are rental and sales figures, with the caveat that those are still "statistics" (see below).

"TV shows are free anyway."

My point as well. That's content that is not reflected in your numbers.

"You can get it off the air."

Ever heard of a Podcasts?

"You have to pay for bit torrent movies now, and its been tracking as a decline. Illegally it cannot be determined with its growing or in decline."

But it is estimated that illegal bit torrents outnumber legal ones 10 to 1.

"Streamed video you have to pay for. There is no site that is going to allow you to tie up its servers for free. Most streamed video is porn, and that showed a slight decline in 2006."

Wow, I didn't know that CNN, CBS, ABC, and NBC mostly streamed porn. Since it's all free, I'll have to block those sites from my kid's computers.

"What you enjoy doing cannot be construed as a widespread thing. Its what you like to do. I can find 5 more people who have no interest in watching anything on a two inch screen unless its a menu, or a still picture. Youtube probably looks pretty good on a two inch window because the video is so highly compressed."

Ever consider how many people watch YouTube? It's by far the most popular content site on the internet. Even Myspace is replete with YouTube links (and I'm pretty sure they're gaining puopularity here on AR). I guess those millions of viewers are statistically insignificant? Interesting stats, then.

"Try watching it on a 65" HDTV."

People don't do that. What I'm trying to explain is that YouTube makes the general public expect the convenience of downloaded and streamed content. It won't be a big leap from there to get these same people to switch to downloaded content on their TVs when higher quality downloads are available using their existing gear. That's very different from making them go and buy a BR player, new cables, new disks, and possibly new TVs.

"Most marketing experts disagree with you about news in high definition. Almost all stations in large cities now broadcast their news in high definition. There must be a reason for that if not just for marketing purposes."

When Tivo, Cable, PS3 & X-box users can download HD movies for the same price as the current SD movies, this whole debate will be over. "Blue Ray, was that some kind of fish? Oh wait a minute, it was that DVD-thing that went the way of the dodo, right? Boy do I feel sorry for all the people that bought into that!"

"If joe6pack covered his mouth with the other hand, then nobody but him would know he is watching Jenna on a big screen."

Let's hope he remembers to pull the blinds.

"Somebody must want porn in HD because it sure is available."

My guess? It's the novelty thing. Is it selling better that regular movies (as a ratio to SD sales)? If it is, then I didn't know that.

"So because this one person made this quote, we should all abandon using any kind of words or numbers? Utterly rediculous."

No, but if you read the book, it's pretty damning: just about every single foreign aid package from the US in the last 50 years used fraudulent numbers to benefit American business at the cost of millions of lives - the kind of abuse that would make Pol Pot blush. It's not the same as the numbers we are looking at here, of course, but there are plenty of news sources for equally disturbing information. You can even search your movie collection for titles Silkwood, The Insider, Erin Brockovitch, Thank you for Smoking, and Sicko for evidence that the "official" corporate press release isn't exactly truthful. And bringing it back around to our discussion: the disks that are sold available on both formats - it's not like we're talking about a lot of fudging to make a point that one sells better than the other.

"If the idea of using statistics to fool people was your goal, then it can be easily done. If you goal is to use statistics to guage trends, then its invaluable. The Bible can be twisted to reveal spritual falsehood if that was the intent. A textbook can be twisted to reveal educational falsehoods if that is the intent. It is not the statistics that is the problem, it's the intent....If that was the intent, yes. If that was not the intent, no....If that industry intent was to survive and thrive, then very confident. If the numbers were ment to distort or two twist, not very confident. It all goes back to the intent. Do I rely on information I get from my industry sources? Yes I do, because the intent is not to deceive anyone, its to inform. Most folks that take the position you are taking, are people who cannot get access to the information. It makes it easier to dismiss the facts when someone else has the information, and you don't."

Don't be questioning the word of God, now. You're on your own to defend that one.

Regarding intent, that's precisely my point - there could very well be an intent to mislead. How much is this whole industry worth? Are you going to convince me that they're any different from the multinationals who lied to the rest of the world for half a century? Actually, some of them are those very same companies. Wait a minute, didn't you say that the mags and papers lied about SACD and DVD-A? Why would this be any different? Heck, I would say that the mags and papers are even more beholden to the media conglomerates now than they were when SACD and DVD-A had our attention.

"The connection you are attempting to make cannot be made by this example. Poll numbers are guesses and estimates. They are not actual votes counted. Since getting poll numbers happens BEFORE the election, things can change very quickly. Sales figures are after the fact numbers that are exact. Sales figures don't change unless they were wrong in the first place."

I was talking about how the exit polls were so inconsistent with the results. Ever heard of a state called Ohio? It may come as a surprise, but it's now been clearly shown that Kerry carried the state handily, just as the exit polls showed, but somehow that's not who was elected. I'm not a cheerleader for either side, but the numbers don't add up.

Sales figures are also estimates. And do they include returns, second-hand sales, promotional freebies, the grey market, the black market, and illegal copying? Nope. With BR and HD-DVD they might be slightly more accurate because they haven't been widely cracked, but that's a temporary security. With sales of regular DVDs, music CDs, online downloads, steaming video, and all the other media that we've been discussing, "official" statistics are much more questionable than that. It might very well be that sales figures show less than half of what's really changing hands.

"If PQ and AQ were so unimportant to the average DVD buyer, then VHS would have been more than good enough. In reality it is important to many, or DVD would not have been adopted so quickly by so many. If we didn't have two competing format creating market confusion, I am not so sure we would be having this discussion. We know this from the DVD introduction. When DIVX and standard DVD were both on the market, neither flourished. When DIVX exited the market, DVD took off like a shot, inspite of the naysayers that said VHS and Laserdisc is good enough."

Maybe maybe not. Are we certain, with all the other factors that are possible, that it was DIVx exiting the market that was the reason for DVD's meteoric rise? Maybe you're right, but I wouldn't say that unequivocally.

"This is a foolish bet and not worth my time. It has already been said that this internet could not support mass market downloading. If it was attempted, it would just clog the system. It took years to build the infrastucture we currently have, and you think it will take just two years to build another. You have more balls than I with this thinking. There are far too many details to be worked out to get the job done in two years. That's a fact my friend."

I was also said early on, that the Internet was a fad. Microsoft completely missed that boat. Remember how hard they had to fight, both above board and under the surface, to kill off Netscape when they realized they weren't surfing at all? (boy, that sentence kind of rolled like a wave...)

I'm not saying we need to rebuild the internet. I'm saying we have to build on what we have. Ever heard of Cal-IT2? Darpa-II? If we can just convert the guns of competition to plowshares of cooperation (isn't that a great phrase?), then we can easily improve the infrastructure. We used to be the Internet authority in the world, there's no need we can't be once again. It's not just a matter of improving the hardware, by the way, we can also improve the software layers to be more efficient and less prone to bloat with technologies like the Semantic Web / Web 3.0. Heck if Al Gore becomes president, who knows what he'll pull from that lockbox, the solar-powered internet?

"Alot of folks believe that Iraq was involved in the Twin Towers tragedy even in the face of facts. I think more people are worried about the middle class surviving than thinking about what the RIAA and the MPAA are doing. People know that corporation are screwing them, but it doesn't stop them from supporting these corporations. Look at Walmart. Everyone knows they screw their employees, and the American worker. They still have made the company the largest retailer in the world. The American public has no problem screwing themslelves with their own decisions. The midwest could clearly see that as Walmart stores proliferated throughout the region, manufacturering jobs were dissapearing. They saw whole business district dry up to dust, and they still went to Walmart. They watch the politician they voted into office screw them by supporting illegal immigration, but they never recalled, or even called their rep to the carpet. These days the American public is much more efficient at screwing themselves than a corporate conglomerate could ever be."

Not every American is a Wallmart-shopping, Hummer-driving, gun-toting-NRA-member, Limbaugh/O'Reily/Hannety/Dr.Laura-worshipping ignoramous bent on ruling the world with an iron fist and willing to re-ellect indefinitely the douche-bags who screw them over and over again. After a while it starts to chaff. The rising resistance to Wallmart and other abusive companies is indicative of that. Independent news sources like Democracy Now and Free Speech TV are gaining in popularity. Among young people, it's actually cool to be a non-smoker, tech-savvy, semi-vegetarian, Prius-driving, college-educated, liberal (Oh my goodness, Maybel, he used the "L" world - we're all going to hades, now!). Speaking of religion, even major churches throughout the Bible belt are realizing that indiscriminate rendering and torture isn't really the Christian thing to do. Gee, it did take a while, didn't it?

There is reason to be depressed, yes, but there is hope as well. I'm sorry if I'm an optimist, I can't really change that. I sincerely hope that BR or HD-DVD succeeds for it's technical merits (it really is a gorgeous picture in the store). Or better yet, I'd like to see a dual-format becoming the standard. But right now, I am more inclined to believe that downloads and/or streaming content will win the day.

Sounds to me like you are referring to what often times happens in the market or with a certain product and that is the 'phenomenon' of marketing. There are sometimes no real rational explanations for why something does well, does poorly, etc etc. Even with hard facts it becomes way too complicated to really decipher the real cause of certain events, thus they are unexplainable or illogical, yet can still happen. For some people this is bothersome because they want an explanation for everything that makes logical sense, and yet there just is no hard evidence that supports why the market turns one way or another. It's an enigma.

Even the word: explain
Doesn't make sense that the word: explanation is spelled without the 'i', as in explaination. Can anyone explain that?

[ldgibson76]

My last reply to this subject was pretty much ignored and that's cool. But I'm here to tell all of you, this new format called "HD VMD" is coming. New Medium Enterprises will become very relevant soon. http://www.nmeinc.com/. If you've never heard of NME....you will. And for those of you who prescribe to the theory regarding number of movies available at inception, VMD is way ahead of the DVD, HD DVD and Blu ray. Check out the number of movies available in the HD VMD format. It has the potential to make both HD DVD and Blu-ray come down in price very quickly.

Peace!

[drseid]

My last reply to this subject was pretty much ignored and that's cool. But I'm here to tell all of you, this new format called "HD VMD" is coming. New Medium Enterprises will become very relevant soon. http://www.nmeinc.com/. If you've never heard of NME....you will. And for those of you who prescribe to the theory regarding number of movies available at inception, VMD is way ahead of the DVD, HD DVD and Blu ray. Check out the number of movies available in the HD VMD format. It has the potential to make both HD DVD and Blu-ray come down in price very quickly.

Peace!

I honestly believe this format will be DOA in the US. It has little major US studio support and few distribution outlets. It also does not support the new lossless audio formats. The early buzz on the format has been "cold" to put it mildly.

My feeling is it is way too late in the game to join the party, as HD DVD and Blu-ray already have gained enough traction to create relatively strong barriers to entry. Had this format been released a lot earlier, I might be singing a different tune, as its low price is certainly appealing.

---Dave

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sir T.,

If I give up on this debate, it'll be because of sheer exhaustion, not because I am coming around to your way of thinking. Again, with all the respect in the world, I don't think your facts add up. The examples you present, while well argued, only deal with what is legal, public, and from "official" sources. I believe that there are far more unknowns in this issue than is apparent.

Nobody can make a judgement based on unknows. They're unknown. One can only make a decision or analysis based on knowns. Trying to throw a bunch of unknowns into a debate just muddies the debate, and keeps it from being clear and understandable.


This may very well have been the case, but that does not explain why catalogs were increasing. If sales were stagnant, why did shelfspace, the number of articles, the number of players, and the size of online catalogs increase?

Have you ever heard of the line "you can lead a horse to water, but cannot make him drink". Well, this is a case of the product was created, and the public didn't buy it. The articles were there to increase magazine sales. As long as there were two audio formats battling it out, it created enough buzz to write an article about. It was the competition flavor of the period, but it didn't develope enough interest with the public to spur sales.


While this may be true, there were very few if any naysayers at the time. Are you telling me that almost every magazine and newspaper writer was on the take?

I do not think I said that. I said the audio format war created a nice press buzz, but it didn't create sales of the software.



This is a perfect example of just looking at "official" numbers. Windows was only pre-installed on computers from the big manufacturers (Dell, HP, Compaq, etc.) but the number of white box systems sold in the US was about 1/4 of total sales. And that's for the US. - outside the US, the number was much higher. These people had to buy Windows separately. I was actually involved with sales to the UC of Cal. system. We purchased all our Windows licenses through a Microsoft volume contract, and I can tell you that well over 70% of the Windows boxes at UC at the time were licensed this way: separate line items. It was not until '97 that Microsoft mandated that only upgrades would be sold both to the retail and the high-volume channels, meaning that people had to buy a system with Windows pre-installed.

I am sorry man, it is incredibly ingenious to make a point on 25% of sales. That is like dismissing the other 75% as irrelevant just to make a point. I also dispute your 25% as well. Within your ten year period(that would be 1997) Dell, HP Compaq and Gateway represented about 86% of all computers sold. All of their computers came with Windows pre-installed. Windows proliferated because it was in every computer sold inside and outside this country. Just to check my facts, I called a buddy of mine who marches in the same drum corps as I do. Going over the history of windows, he stated to me that before 1995, most window products were sold over the counter as upgrades to previous window products. By the time 1998 rolled around, there was more software pre-installed in computers, than bought over the counter. What you are attempting to do is expand the time frame of your original statement. Remember, you said ten years ago, which would be 1997, and even you admit in your last statement that I am indeed correct
It was not until '97 that Microsoft mandated that only upgrades would be sold both to the retail and the high-volume channels, meaning that people had to buy a system with Windows pre-installed. I appreciate you confirming my point.

I also worked on a research project looking at the risks of piracy. I don't remember the exact figures, but I know they don't match up with yours. Our estimates were that perhaps 30% of Windows licenses in the US were pirated. Worldwide the numbers were as high as 60%. The idea that every license on every PC was pre-installed is ridiculous.

Your ESTIMATES that PERHAPS doesn't negate my statements at all. When I made my point, I was not referring to Asia or Europe. Their markets are much different than ours. I was referring to the United States. Since you already made my point on pre-installs, I will not belabour that point.


Competely false. I remember reading that the RIAA estimated in 2003 that 90% of MP3 music was illegal - most of this music came from Napster users when the RIAA couldn't shut them down. I know that was a while ago, but those files are DRM-free and they are still out there, on iPods, music servers, and the Internet (that's the beauty of digital, it never gets old). I also happen to know that even today younger people trade files like rabits in heat. All it takes is to plug two players to the same computer. Most CDs are ripped as soon as they are purchased. If they have DRM on them, it is stripped off. I'm not saying I condone it, but its far more common than you think. I also don't know what the sales figure are for non-DRM files, but I can tell you that if they are not high, it's because they have no DRM! Only one person needs to download it.

You critisized me over my insider information, yet you are quoting one of the most inside sources in the music industry. First, the RIAA is notorious for overstating their points to bring a sense of "urgency" as a means of obtaining more strict rules in congress. Not only that, but Napster is an outdated point, as it is no longer in existance. Music creation is not a static action. For every song that is still out there, more are being created. Not only are those files still out there, but so are dummy files, and files with digital distortion rendering them unplayable(thank you RIAA sarcasm off). As far as copying CD's, there is no evidence whatsoever that links the ordinary joe CD ripper to the online propagation of illegal files. If there is, could you provide a link with some substanative information that confirms such.


I also don't know what the sales figure are for non-DRM files, but I can tell you that if they are not high, it's because they have no DRM! Only one person needs to download it

So you are stating that people are downloading non DRM files, and propogating illegally as a practice?. I would like to see some evidence that this is true, because you are essentially calling alot of folks crooks!


Simple: they were not around long enough nor did they become enough of a share of the market. Windows wasn't being widely cracked until it hit version 3.0.



This is not a discouragement - it's a challenge. It will happen sooner or later. The only way to guard against copying is to make the content less valuable. Nobody cracks TV shows because they are free - if low-res movies (YouTube sized) and low-res music (128Kbps or less) were free as well, the number of hacks would be way down. Even DVD cracking is down, not because it's hard, but because it's so easy to get the movie illegally, if you really want it. A BlueRay disk, especially if it hasn't yet been released to the public, would be worth a lot in "online cash." There are plenty of people working on this. It's not a question of if it will happen but when it will happen.

Come on, do you really think that anyone is willing to brick their bluray player, or bluray drive in their laptop just to crack a code. I don't think so. I agree about DVD because I have seen those files show up in my email coming out of a yahoo group. As far as bluray and folks breaking its code, you really have to figure out if the disc has BD+, that it can be easily exploited, and that it is worth it to do so. I think cracking it will take time, but the real problem for any hacker will be getting the player to play the hacked files.



Not true. The people that are up in arms are the millions of consumers who don't believe they should pay for each medium that they need a song/movie in. If you bought the HD-DVD disk, why should you then also have to buy the DVD because your car doesn't have an HD-DVD player? Or having to buy the Shoutcast version of your favorite MP3? Etc.

Well there are no portable HD DVD drives available for cars number one. Number two is you cannot play HD DVD files on a regular DVD player. So anyone with half an operational brain would understand that I will need a DVD copy for the DVD player, and a HD DVD copy for an HD DVD player. Either that or they believe a round peg will fit in a square hole.



I have no opinion on the matter, really. I'm still DVD only and I don't really care to rip my music unless I have to fly. I guess I'm a bit old-fashioned that way. Do you own the same movies on BR/HD-DVD that you have on DVD? What about VHS & Laserdisk? That must really be a kick in the pants! I don't know, maybe you have that kind of money, but most people don't. And what happens when a new format comes out and all your BRs, HD-DVDs and your players become the proverbial "bricks"? What if I'm right and downloads / paid subscription services become the norm? Will you buy them all again?
[I]

The answer to your first question is yes. I have some copies on all three formats so I can take the DVD on trips, and not worry if I lose them. Its never happened, but you never know. The answer to your second question is, as long as players are made, your invest in software is always safe. When they stop making players, the sell the movies on Ebay, just like they have done with laserdisc. Some things I worry about, but not this.



Most people have had a hard drive crash at one time or another (interestingly, in the seven years that I've been using Linux, that's not happened on those machines). But you can always do backups (I do). Funny thing is people don't ever worry about their Tivo/PVR hard drive crashing or their music server blowing up - it's pretty much the same technology. This really is just fear mongering - how many hard drives have you really lost all your data from? Actually people never worried about their VHSes or Cassettes getting demagnitized too much either. That's because for most people (with the exception of some people here) the stuff gets old and stale over time so people don't really care to keep it - often times, they share it online to trade for something better.

Okay, so you have 500GB of movie files on your sever, then you need another 500GB or so as a back up. First this takes know how, which joe6pack doesn't either want to know, or doesn't want to go through all of the trouble. I could not imagine my best friend ever doing this. Then there is the cost of the drives, interfaces etc. Before you know it, it cost more than a HD DVD or bluray player and the disc.
I am somewhat surprised you accuse me of fear mongering when you have done you best to do the same concerning bluray and HD DVD. To give the appearance that all will be wonderful all the time with storage drives is very deceiving. Hard drives crash every day. I have been temporaily assigned by Disney to one of the television stations they own. Every day there is a drive failure somewhere in their system, so to make any attempt to play down this reality is just plain disengenious.



Actually the average Joe is irritated by it. Sure this frustration won't be written up in the industry reports, the a/v mags, their websites, or any of the "official" sources. Industry "insiders" probably don't even realize this, or would rather not have anyone know it, so they're not going to talk about it either. But if you search online blogs, websites like the EFF and non-mainstream news, you'll find a lot of discontents.

This is a statement of convience to support an arguement. Oh sure you can say anything and then add that its not reported in main stream A/V press, or official sources. Well, it has to be reported somewhere that the masses are upset. The only place you do see it, is from HD DVD supporters, who are upset that DRM has not been implemented on their format. No bluray supporter is crying about AACS or BD+. If somebody is upset, it should show up somewhere. I think THIS is FUD. I am not going to pay any attention to someone with a alternative agenda on this issue, like bloggers and fringe groups. They have their own agenda, and that doesn't include offering any studio or record any protections on their intellectual property.


No flashback needed. I never said BR/HD-DVD were not important - technologically they are very compelling to me. It's the extras that are not important. Aside from Film majors in college, very few people watch them.

This doesn't appear to be consistant with your earlier statements, but I guess we have to take your word for it.



How many times does this falsehood have to be repeated? Things change much faster than they did 10 years ago - that's just a fact of society. What you describe as slower penetration then means very little today. Also do those BR numbers include PS3 players? How can you know that those owners watch BR on them? Yes X-box has an HD-DVD player add-on, but there are far fewer of those in people's homes, but at least we know that those are used exclusively for HD-DVD watching. The only usable statistics are rental and sales figures, with the caveat that those are still "statistics" (see below).

Nothing I said was a falsehood. That is just an excuse for not knowing, or willing to deal with the facts. In audio and video, things do not change THAT fast. Since 1982 there has only been VHS, Laserdisc, DVD and now HDM on disc. Unlike the computer industry, the A/V industry cannot support such quick changes, as each change requires retooling player manufacturing line, manufacturering video and audio encoders and decoders, and building the infrastructure to handle the new format.

Please, do not go down the "how do you know that people play BD on the PS3" crap. When the PS3 was released, sales figures and rental figures BOTH went up simultaneously as the PS3 sales grew. How in the heck do you think that the bluray side can maintain a sales lead of 2-1 since January with less standalones sold? Think about it before you mention this. I own one and play nothing but movies and music on it. Go to bluray.com and there are thousands using it as their primary bluray player.

Once again, you cannot dismiss sales and rental figures at your convience.



Wow, I didn't know that CNN, CBS, ABC, and NBC mostly streamed porn. Since it's all free, I'll have to block those sites from my kid's computers.

They are all streaming free TV programs shown directly off air. I can speak directly for ABC, while they support it, it is not a big revenue stream for the network. Based on the last DTV magazine I read, its not big for the other major players either. I don't major in minors like you are attempting to do. I am talking about MAJOR revenue sources, not little to insignificant ones. Porn is a significant revenue stream, and while online sales of products have significantly increased, online streaming as fallen.



Ever consider how many people watch YouTube? It's by far the most popular content site on the internet. Even Myspace is replete with YouTube links (and I'm pretty sure they're gaining puopularity here on AR). I guess those millions of viewers are statistically insignificant? Interesting stats, then.

I watch youtube on occasion. But what the tea in china has that got to do with HDM on disc, and its sucess of it? There are no full length HD movies on youtube, so it is irrelevant in the contexted of this debate.



People don't do that. What I'm trying to explain is that YouTube makes the general public expect the convenience of downloaded and streamed content. It won't be a big leap from there to get these same people to switch to downloaded content on their TVs when higher quality downloads are available using their existing gear. That's very different from making them go and buy a BR player, new cables, new disks, and possibly new TVs.

People do not look to youtube for their movie watching needs. They look at youtube for its unique content. There is no evidence that movie downloads really have a market at this time. The last poll taken showed that most folks do not sit in front of their computer to watch movies. That is still the domain of the disc based formats.

Your second point makes no sense whatsoever. In order to enjoy higher quality downloads or HD, you need a HD television. So if they don't have one, whether they pick downloads or the disc, they have to replace their current equipment. If they expect uncompressed audio and don't have access to HDMI capable receiver, then they have to purchase new equipement. Even if they wanted to experience the advanced codecs(which are more efficent than PCM) they still have to replaced their old equipment. There is no scenario where a consumer can just plug in their existing equipment into the grid, and poof, there is high quality audio and video.


When Tivo, Cable, PS3 & X-box users can download HD movies for the same price as the current SD movies, this whole debate will be over.

You have a looooong time for this to happen. In case you didn't know it, HD movies have to be digitally scanned and encoded before release. Right now it is very expensive(look at HDM on disc's pricing), and the only encoders that are in widespread use is MPEG-2 which is not efficient enough for downloads. VC-1 is next in line, but not in widespread use. Same goes for AVC. Also if you look at the pricing of audio downloads, it has been steadily going up. I seriously doubt that any studio(and that includes the one I work for) would undercut disc sales for downloads at this point. Keep dreaming






"Blue Ray, was that some kind of fish? Oh wait a minute, it was that DVD-thing that went the way of the dodo, right? Boy do I feel sorry for all the people that bought into that!"

I prefer debating with adults, which precludes the inclusion of such comments as this.



My guess? It's the novelty thing. Is it selling better that regular movies (as a ratio to SD sales)? If it is, then I didn't know that.

The costs associated with producing such content would prevent a novelty status.


No, but if you read the book, it's pretty damning: just about every single foreign aid package from the US in the last 50 years used fraudulent numbers to benefit American business at the cost of millions of lives - the kind of abuse that would make Pol Pot blush. It's not the same as the numbers we are looking at here, of course, but there are plenty of news sources for equally disturbing information. You can even search your movie collection for titles Silkwood, The Insider, Erin Brockovitch, Thank you for Smoking, and Sicko for evidence that the "official" corporate press release isn't exactly truthful. And bringing it back around to our discussion: the disks that are sold available on both formats - it's not like we're talking about a lot of fudging to make a point that one sells better than the other.

I am not interested in the disinformation of the government, which is what this book goes into. The SEC has rules againist the purposeful spread financial misinformation. The company's boards do not like it, stockholders absolutely don't like it.


Don't be questioning the word of God, now. You're on your own to defend that one.

Reading comprehension is a wonderful thing. I didn't question the word of God. I said the word of God can be manipulated, used in a evil way, and twisted to make a point. Southern Baptist do it all of the time, as does the catholic church. Nothing to defend, so tuck your self rightousness back into your pocket.


Regarding intent, that's precisely my point - there could very well be an intent to mislead. How much is this whole industry worth? Are you going to convince me that they're any different from the multinationals who lied to the rest of the world for half a century?

This is the same industry that will support your theories on movie downloads. If you have an issue with them concerning BR or HD DVD, then you should have the same issues with them concerning downloads. Or are you picking and choosing your evils to fit your arguement?



Actually, some of them are those very same companies. Wait a minute, didn't you say that the mags and papers lied about SACD and DVD-A? Why would this be any different? Heck, I would say that the mags and papers are even more beholden to the media conglomerates now than they were when SACD and DVD-A had our attention.

Once again, reading comprehension is a wonderful thing, twisting ones words is not. I said the audio press made more hay about high resolution music, but that HAY(or fluff) do not turn into disc sales. That is a fair fetch from lying. SACD and DVD-A sold magazines, not discs. I hope that is clear.



I was talking about how the exit polls were so inconsistent with the results. Ever heard of a state called Ohio? It may come as a surprise, but it's now been clearly shown that Kerry carried the state handily, just as the exit polls showed, but somehow that's not who was elected. I'm not a cheerleader for either side, but the numbers don't add up.

This has nothing to do with HD DVD or BR. This is mud designed to cloud the issue, much like mud does with water.




It is not the job of sales figures to cover all of the items, it covers sales. Profit and loss reports cover the other issues.



[quote] Nope. With BR and HD-DVD they might be slightly more accurate because they haven't been widely cracked, but that's a temporary security. With sales of regular DVDs, music CDs, online downloads, steaming video, and all the other media that we've been discussing, "official" statistics are much more questionable than that. It might very well be that sales figures show less than half of what's really changing hands.
[I]

I'll leave that up to you to prove, since you claim they are all inaccurate and therefore unuseful.


Maybe maybe not. Are we certain, with all the other factors that are possible, that it was DIVx exiting the market that was the reason for DVD's meteoric rise? Maybe you're right, but I wouldn't say that unequivocally.

Studies have already tied the two together in this way. You can doubt, and you can be paranoid enough to doubt everything and discount everything. But it doesn't make it so.



I'm not saying we need to rebuild the internet. I'm saying we have to build on what we have. Ever heard of Cal-IT2? Darpa-II? If we can just convert the guns of competition to plowshares of cooperation (isn't that a great phrase?), then we can easily improve the infrastructure.

Sorry, it doesn't work that way. If there is no financial incentive to re-develope the internet infrastructure, then don't expect business to contribute to the cost. If the government cannot regulate it, then they won't contribute as well. There has to be something in it for someone, or it will never be done. Pie in the sky thinking, but not very realistic.



We used to be the Internet authority in the world, there's no need we can't be once again. It's not just a matter of improving the hardware, by the way, we can also improve the software layers to be more efficient and less prone to bloat with technologies like the Semantic Web / Web 3.0. Heck if Al Gore becomes president, who knows what he'll pull from that lockbox, the solar-powered internet?

I cannot argue with this. But any attempts to control free access of all kinds is going to be a problem.



Not every American is a Wallmart-shopping, Hummer-driving, gun-toting-NRA-member, Limbaugh/O'Reily/Hannety/Dr.Laura-worshipping ignoramous bent on ruling the world with an iron fist and willing to re-ellect indefinitely the douche-bags who screw them over and over again.

Oh really? Well the elected one stupid douche bag twice, even when they knew he was pooch screwing them. I often question the intellect of the middle of our country, and I have reason after reason to do so.


After a while it starts to chaff. The rising resistance to Wallmart and other abusive companies is indicative of that.

What resistance to Walmart? I do not see any massive fall in revenue or their stock price. Americans are still going there by the droves, even though it is well documented that they recommend their vendors manufacture their product in China.


Independent news sources like Democracy Now and Free Speech TV are gaining in popularity. Among young people, it's actually cool to be a non-smoker, tech-savvy, semi-vegetarian, Prius-driving, college-educated, liberal (Oh my goodness, Maybel, he used the "L" world - we're all going to hades, now!). Speaking of religion, even major churches throughout the Bible belt are realizing that indiscriminate rendering and torture isn't really the Christian thing to do. Gee, it did take a while, didn't it?

Democracy now, and Free Speech TV are mere noise compared to the signal of the Networks and Cable news. Smoking at all ages is down in America, and up in the rest of the world. There are still more SUV's sold than Prius, fewer high schoolers going to college(cost is killing the middle and low class), definately turning more liberal.

As far as the bible belt churches, they are still judgemental, seperatists, racial bigots, and continually take the bible out of contexted, and the helped get the worst president in the history of this nation back into office. I wonder if these are "Christian" things as well.




There is reason to be depressed, yes, but there is hope as well. I'm sorry if I'm an optimist, I can't really change that. I sincerely hope that BR or HD-DVD succeeds for it's technical merits (it really is a gorgeous picture in the store). Or better yet, I'd like to see a dual-format becoming the standard. But right now, I am more inclined to believe that downloads and/or streaming content will win the day.

Dual format is not going to exist. Forget it. It cost the industry too much to support two formats that do exactly the same thing. Its too expensive to do seperate encodes that maximises the technology of both, and Warner doing the same encodes for both formats just isn't working out.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

My last reply to this subject was pretty much ignored and that's cool. But I'm here to tell all of you, this new format called "HD VMD" is coming. New Medium Enterprises will become very relevant soon. http://www.nmeinc.com/. If you've never heard of NME....you will. And for those of you who prescribe to the theory regarding number of movies available at inception, VMD is way ahead of the DVD, HD DVD and Blu ray. Check out the number of movies available in the HD VMD format. It has the potential to make both HD DVD and Blu-ray come down in price very quickly.

Peace!

I have to agree with Dave here, its not going to do anything in the US, Japan, or China in that case. Its 40mbps bitrate does not tell you what is devoted to audio, and what is devoted to video. And lastly, the article incorrectly mentions that BR data rate is 36mbps, the same as HD DVD. That is incorrect. For BD-Rom which is what all movies are released on, the video bitrate is 40mbps by itself, with the capability(within the buffer stage) for peaks of 48mbps. The totally bitrate is 54mbps. That is a vastly larger pipline than 40mbps for everthing.

[Mr Peabody]

I'm with the Doc here, the US has two formats battling out and there isn't any room for #3. NME is on their own and it would be very difficult to get the market penetration that the other two already have. I'd have to think that wind of VMD would have gotten around to the manufacturers long ago yet they seem to be choosing BR or HD-DVD. NME would have to get movie companies on board and get retailers to stock their product. They'd have more than an up hill battle.

Also NME don't really offer any real advantage over the other 2 formats, except they claim red laser is superior to blue. I don't know if that's true or not. VMD can hold up to 100 GB but a company showed at 2007 CES a HD-DVD that can hold 150 GB. At present nothing can read all the layers of a disc like that. Actually, the movie companies aren't even using near the available storage now, so a storage race don't mean much except to maybe computer users. With Microsoft behind HD-DVD and the BDA member companies putting out BR computer products, I think even the PC market is already taken up.

The US market has already shown that pricing is not a factor so far in this war. This has me puzzled but the fact is, it's going to take more than a cheap price to get VMD into the fight. According to many published sales reports Blu-ray seems to be selling even better overseas. Bottomline, I wouldn't buy any stock in NME. My prediction is, instead of them taking over, they will fade away without a ripple in the US. They were supposed to be here in the 3rd quarter yet no one has heard of them.

[Woochifer]

I'm with the Doc here, the US has two formats battling out and there isn't any room for #3. NME is on their own and it would be very difficult to get the market penetration that the other two already have. I'd have to think that wind of VMD would have gotten around to the manufacturers long ago yet they seem to be choosing BR or HD-DVD. NME would have to get movie companies on board and get retailers to stock their product. They'd have more than an up hill battle.

Also NME don't really offer any real advantage over the other 2 formats, except they claim red laser is superior to blue. I don't know if that's true or not. VMD can hold up to 100 GB but a company showed at 2007 CES a HD-DVD that can hold 150 GB. At present nothing can read all the layers of a disc like that. Actually, the movie companies aren't even using near the available storage now, so a storage race don't mean much except to maybe computer users. With Microsoft behind HD-DVD and the BDA member companies putting out BR computer products, I think even the PC market is already taken up.

The US market has already shown that pricing is not a factor so far in this war. This has me puzzled but the fact is, it's going to take more than a cheap price to get VMD into the fight. According to many published sales reports Blu-ray seems to be selling even better overseas. Bottomline, I wouldn't buy any stock in NME. My prediction is, instead of them taking over, they will fade away without a ripple in the US. They were supposed to be here in the 3rd quarter yet no one has heard of them.

I'm fishing for conspiracies here, but wasn't the Chinese government pushing their own red-laser HD disc format a while ago to try and circumvent the HD-DVD and Blu-ray royalties? This sounds an awful lot like a new variant on that concept.

If so, that would make plenty of sense since China's domestic market alone has 1.4 billion potential customers, and the VMD Wikipedia entry mentions that Bollywood titles will be among the first available in the VMD format (India contributes another 1+ billion customers, and ranks as the most prolific movie industry in the world). With just the domestic markets in China and India, this format can take off even if none of the North American and European production houses support it.

And with much of China's domestic production capacity owned by the government, they can easily mandate VMD as the home market standard for domestically produced content, and completely lock Blu-ray and HD-DVD out altogether. Toshiba has been signing up Chinese manufacturers to make off-brand HD-DVD players, but I've read speculation that the Chinese want to jettison DVD player manufacturing altogether along with the HD-DVD format in order to avoid paying royalties.

For North America, I think the only potential market for VMD would be imported content, particularly movies and TV shows from India and China if both of those countries widely adopt VMD as the HD format of choice. It's no different than how a lot of the movies from that part of the world commonly used the Video CD (VCD) format rather than VHS, and took a long time before switching a lot of the content from VCD to DVD.

[Woochifer]

I agree with you about downloads, but even more threatening is VOD.
It allows pause, FF,REVERSE, and saving for 24hrs.
And its killing the rental market in my town.
Downloading is a bit in the future, but netflix is advertising it already.
You need terabytes of storage? Not really, just erase something like a DVR when you're through, not to mention that 500 gb of hard drive is available now, for 125$ yet.
And zip drives that will hold an entire movie, properly compressed.
Windows vista reccomends 2gb of memory, 4gb preffered, how long before we see a "format" based on a solid state memory? Or a small 30gb HD like you see in some
mp3 players?
Both sides are acting like the optical disc is going to be the standard for decades,
when the first optical disc, CD, is dying a fast death.
Both formats co-exsisting? heck, ONE might not make it.
But if one does it will be Blu ray.
The HDDVD camp is kinda like the black knight in the holy grail.
Cut off his arm, just a scratch, chop off his leg, just a flesh wound.
Wonder when they will see what is becoming increasingly obvious:1:

There's one problem with your VOD theory -- the movie downloads come locked down with all kinds of onerous time and use restrictions. It's not like you can download a HD movie and watch it as many times as you want indefinitely. So long as the studios insist on DRM and self-destructing files, it will not completely replace physical disc media.

The DVD turned the home video industry upside down by transforming it from a primarily rental market to a purchase/collecting market, since the DVDs themselves don't cost that much more than movie tickets, and you get to keep the movie and mine through the bonus features for favorite films. As Terrence pointed out, the broadband pipelines aren't fast or reliable enough for on-demand HD streaming, which is the kind of instant gratification that consumers will want in order to displace disc media to a significant degree. And once residential networks get upgraded to higher speeds, will they come with progressive pricing structures based on usage? DSL and cable providers are already clamping down on heavy usage customers, and I can easily see the broadband providers getting even more restrictive once video downloading becomes more commonplace.

[PeruvianSkies]

Anyone else remember the short-lived attempt to do HD-LD?

[pixelthis]

There's one problem with your VOD theory -- the movie downloads come locked down with all kinds of onerous time and use restrictions. It's not like you can download a HD movie and watch it as many times as you want indefinitely. So long as the studios insist on DRM and self-destructing files, it will not completely replace physical disc media.

The DVD turned the home video industry upside down by transforming it from a primarily rental market to a purchase/collecting market, since the DVDs themselves don't cost that much more than movie tickets, and you get to keep the movie and mine through the bonus features for favorite films. As Terrence pointed out, the broadband pipelines aren't fast or reliable enough for on-demand HD streaming, which is the kind of instant gratification that consumers will want in order to displace disc media to a significant degree. And once residential networks get upgraded to higher speeds, will they come with progressive pricing structures based on usage? DSL and cable providers are already clamping down on heavy usage customers, and I can easily see the broadband providers getting even more restrictive once video downloading becomes more commonplace.

This is an exelent demo of hobbyist thinking, people who love movies and collecting them
just don't have the thinking process of those who want to just look at a flick with the family
ONCE.
My VOD service stores the movie for 24 hrs, and I have never felt the need to watch one
more than once.
Lets face it, most movies just aren't collectible. And the convience of not having to take a movie back is very important. Exibit A... NETFLIX.
hi-def? A lot of movies on my system are high def, most have 5.1, there is almost no
downside to this service.
And copy protection? I usually have no trouble copying a copy for my own use.
But most of what I am interested in keeping is concerts, music vids, etc, and theres
quite a few hd concerts on MHD.
BUT even with stringent copyguards it still doesnt matter, most will find that VOD
is just fine for their needs.
I used to have a VCR, "timeshifted" stuff all of the time.
Now I have a DVR, and delete stuff all of the time. If its really special I just shoot it to my dvd recorder. As a result I no longer have a closet of unwatched tapes.
And It has to be very special for me to copy it. I watched Chuck, that new NBC show
in glorious HD, loved it, and then, ZAP, gone!
And a lot of shows, especially on basic cable, replay all of the time anyway.
VOD is a baby now, but flat screen TV was a baby a few years ago.
Moviegallery is closing 500 stores, Blockbuster is imitating Netflix.
And people tell me all of the time about watching a new movie on the "payperview"
Quite a few disc sales are for rental, if rentals collapse it will soon be only collectors
who are buying discs.
And don't forget ordinary HDTV, I watched "jagged edge" on MOJO tonight, and the print was glorious, absolutely beautiful, and while I was watching it I wasn't watching a disc.
The new season is starting, and its a wonder just how good "ordinary" TV looks in HD,
Not to mention sports, etc.
ALL is a competition for disc, the ONLY thing disc can do is be a collectors item,
and how many collectors are out there?:1:

[nightflier]

Sir T.,

We can sit here and quote point for point, but the continuity of each section is lost because the original statement is not maintained and nobody wants to go back and read previous posts.

First of all, I'm speaking with the utmost respect for your facts and figures, which I cannot dispute. What I am merely saying is that they represent the "official" story from the commercial interests. Furthermore they are only a representative percentage of the whole picture and do not take many other important factors into account. My comment is that you place too much trust in them. They are useful, as estimates, but not complete.

Take the discussion about the use of statistics to corrupt government officials for the last 50+ years (according to Perkins' book). You dismissed it with

"the SEC has rules against the purposeful spread financial misinformation. The company's boards do not like it, stockholders absolutely don't like it."

You have complete faith in the SEC and the institutions in place to fight disinformation. Yet this book, and many other, by the way, describe exactly how there is a collusion between government and business to arrive at desired (& profitable) results.

We live in a fantasy that these collusive agreements only exist in distant China or Japan, but this country is the model these countries have followed. Consider many of the other books that have appeared about this disturbing relationship like The Fox in the Henhouse: How Privatization Threatens Democracy, Media Mythmakers: How Journalists, Activists, and Advertisers Mislead Us and that ubiquitous primer of econ101 How to Lie With Statistics. Since you obviously have a gripe with the current administration, you should read up on the Chicago school of Friedman disciples like Cheney, Rummy, and Shultz who have pretty much single-handedly destroyed whole national economies with their fuzzy math and have done the same here.

And this isn't all just Macroeconomics - let's bring this back around. You insinuated yourself that the magazines lied about SACD & DVD-A sales. If so, then wasn't there a widespread agreement from the magazines to disseminate false information? Now couldn't it be possible, just possible, that we are witnessing the same thing here with BR & HD-DVD? I don;t know this for sure, but it's not like there's no precedent. Many companies are corrupt, just Google "Computer Associates", "Martha Stewart", heck, just Google "SEC investigates..."

We can sit here and poke at each other with witticisms and petty humor using distant arguments about MS Windows sales (by the way, I don't at all agree with your argument), election results and the Bible, but they only seem to detract from the original argument so I'll stop with them. Certainly I am as guilty as anyone for using humor in this debate. But my main argument, and I think I do have a strong case, is that the "official" stats and reports from the industry cannot be taken as the gospel truth.

You would argue that they are overwhelmingly representative of the complete picture, and I, well, would argue that they are less than that, perhaps even a whole lot less. Where in the middle can we meet? Or can't we even get to within a stone's throw? We are debating a format war. And while one side does seem to be gaining, let's say, just to keep the peace, by a 2-1 lead, does that mean that it's all over? The answer to that question is entirely dependent on how accurate the official stats are and how much is unknown.

But even if we left these troublesome statistics out of the equation. You, Pixel, Whooch and some others who have obviously already decided which format will win in your homes, are not shying away from cheering on your own side. Perhaps your comments will also have an impact as people obviously use the internet and thus this forum to make their own purchasing decisions. But is that an impartial opinion? After all, you would have to eat some humble pie if HD-DVD pulled ahead, if a dual-format arrived, if a Chinese or Indian format would pull ahead, if VOD suddenly took off, or a whole host of other technologies that have been mentioned by others here, were to slowly creep ahead. You are basically betting the family farm against all the many other possibilities. It's already been established that all it would take to tip the balance (your own words) is a shift of one of the major studios to the other camp. I'm not much of a gambler, but those are some stiff odds.

Personally, I'm not cheering on any side, I'm only pointing out that we put far too much faith in "official" information. This can be dangerous. Maybe some of us have the resources to absorb the costs of switching formats, but that doesn't mean everyone else can. I'm only urging caution. Ultimately, no one has a crystal ball, so we'll find out next year who takes the first bite of that humble pie. In the meantime, we all have some reading to do.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sir T.,

We can sit here and quote point for point, but the continuity of each section is lost because the original statement is not maintained and nobody wants to go back and read previous posts.

I do not think that is the issue. I think you are attempting to include something that cannot be tracked or measured, that nobody seems to know the impact of, to make your point. That is not what I am trying to do, I like using things that are known to make a point.


First of all, I'm speaking with the utmost respect for your facts and figures, which I cannot dispute. What I am merely saying is that they represent the "official" story from the commercial interests. Furthermore they are only a representative percentage of the whole picture and do not take many other important factors into account. My comment is that you place too much trust in them. They are useful, as estimates, but not complete.

You cannot make this assumption because you have no idea that its true. You want to dismiss everything that IS "official" so it puts us on a equal footing, and completely muddies the debate. I have to resist that, because unless you have some inside information that definately point to a purposeful attempt to decieve, then that arguement has not merit here. You sound paranoid that everyone is out to get everyone else through disinformation.




Take the discussion about the use of statistics to corrupt government officials for the last 50+ years (according to Perkins' book). You dismissed it with

I dismissed it because you have no proof of relevance. Its just your theory, and not reality. If you can prove to me the relevance as it pertains to this particular debate, then I would take it into consideration. Just mentioning it as a talking point with no evidence of its truth makes it appear to me that you are just throwing crap against the wall to see what sticks. That approach just confuses the issues.

"the SEC has rules against the purposeful spread financial misinformation. The company's boards do not like it, stockholders absolutely don't like it."


You have complete faith in the SEC and the institutions in place to fight disinformation. Yet this book, and many other, by the way, describe exactly how there is a collusion between government and business to arrive at desired (& profitable) results.

Once again you are putting words in my mouth. If you read what is bolded, I made no mention that I have complete faith in anyone, or anything. I stated a point of fact. Do I think corporations deceive that public? Yes, I sure do. Is there any evidence that either Sony or Toshiba, any studio or manufacturer is out right lying about everything? I see absolutely no evidence of that up this point. Since most of my figures come from sources that does not include Sony, Toshiba, studios, or any manufacturer from either side(it comes from unrelated third parties), then I do have faith in the figures I site. I never use any information from the BDA or the HD DVD PG. I automatically assume that information from them is already twisted in each's favor.

As far as this book relating to the current situation, you will have to prove that point.


We live in a fantasy that these collusive agreements only exist in distant China or Japan, but this country is the model these countries have followed. Consider many of the other books that have appeared about this disturbing relationship like The Fox in the Henhouse: How Privatization Threatens Democracy, Media Mythmakers: How Journalists, Activists, and Advertisers Mislead Us and that ubiquitous primer of econ101 How to Lie With Statistics. Since you obviously have a gripe with the current administration, you should read up on the Chicago school of Friedman disciples like Cheney, Rummy, and Shultz who have pretty much single-handedly destroyed whole national economies with their fuzzy math and have done the same here.

I do not think anyone believes in the fantasy that you mention. This is fluff and blather. WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE THAT MAKES THIS APPLICABLE TO THIS DISCUSSION!!!!!

Rummy, Cheney and Schultz have nothing to do with video downloads, Bluray, or HD DVD. You are venturing far from the topic of discussion, and you have no proof that what you are injecting into the debate applies to the debate.


And this isn't all just Macroeconomics - let's bring this back around. You insinuated yourself that the magazines lied about SACD & DVD-A sales. If so, then wasn't there a widespread agreement from the magazines to disseminate false information? Now couldn't it be possible, just possible, that we are witnessing the same thing here with BR & HD-DVD? I don;t know this for sure, but it's not like there's no precedent. Many companies are corrupt, just Google "Computer Associates", "Martha Stewart", heck, just Google "SEC investigates..."

Here you go again, and for the third time, please do not change my words or put any in my mouth. I NEVER said the magazines lied, I said(and for the third time now) that SACD and DVD-A created a nice buzz in the audio press. There were many graph, opinions, technical pieces, and software reviews, but it didn't translate to sales or apparently from the lack of sales, any interest.


We can sit here and poke at each other with witticisms and petty humor using distant arguments about MS Windows sales (by the way, I don't at all agree with your argument), election results and the Bible, but they only seem to detract from the original argument so I'll stop with them. Certainly I am as guilty as anyone for using humor in this debate. But my main argument, and I think I do have a strong case, is that the "official" stats and reports from the industry cannot be taken as the gospel truth.

They also cannot be discounted because it convient to your arguement. You may "think" you have a strong case, but its really is in your head. Its your paranoia. You have not shown one piece of evidence to support what you say, you are just saying it, and believing you have a strong case. You every heard of "legend in your own mind". This smacks of it man. No joke, no petty humor, and no distant argument here.

[/quote]You would argue that they are overwhelmingly representative of the complete picture, and I, well, would argue that they are less than that, perhaps even a whole lot less. Where in the middle can we meet?[/quote]

I have presented facts and figures to support my arguement. These are figures coming from third party sources with no connection to the BDA or the HD DVD PG. Since businsses PAY for this information, it HAS to be accurate, or the business who business it is to collect this information(with no opinion attached) would lose credibility and business. The sources are not in the business to twist facts, only report what is gleaned from the businesses who support HD DVD and bluray. You on the other hand have not presented a single piece of credible information to support your statements. Not one piece!!!! Its all what you think, and let's face it, a whole new world can be created on what you do not know.


Or can't we even get to within a stone's throw? We are debating a format war. And while one side does seem to be gaining, let's say, just to keep the peace, by a 2-1 lead, does that mean that it's all over? The answer to that question is entirely dependent on how accurate the official stats are and how much is unknown.

Its not a let's say situation when it comes to sales figures. The last sales figures from Nielsons showed a 61:39% for the weekly sales ending September 16. This was a week where there were three exclusive releases on the HD DVD side, and zero from the bluray side. This is for sales only, not P&L entries such as returns, and exchanges. 300 on bluray has for seven weeks outsold all HD DVD titles in that same period. Sales are what everyone is looking at, and since these sales figures come from Nielsons(a third unrelated party) everyone pays attention to these figures. Even the studio's use these figures as their source for sales numbers.


But even if we left these troublesome statistics out of the equation. You, Pixel, Whooch and some others who have obviously already decided which format will win in your homes, are not shying away from cheering on your own side. Perhaps your comments will also have an impact as people obviously use the internet and thus this forum to make their own purchasing decisions. But is that an impartial opinion? After all, you would have to eat some humble pie if HD-DVD pulled ahead, if a dual-format arrived, if a Chinese or Indian format would pull ahead, if VOD suddenly took off, or a whole host of other technologies that have been mentioned by others here, were to slowly creep ahead. You are basically betting the family farm against all the many other possibilities. It's already been established that all it would take to tip the balance (your own words) is a shift of one of the major studios to the other camp. I'm not much of a gambler, but those are some stiff odds.

Nobody has an impartial opinon. I made my decision based on inside sources, trends that I have noticed, the titles that I intended on replacing, and the cost and stability of the player I chose. I have players from both formats, but I am only replacing DVD's from on format.

I have no worry for cheap chinese players. Cheap chinese DVD players have already degraded the market for cheap chinese players in terms of quality, and the recent negative press of all product from china have pretty much put a wet heavy blanket on that issue. Walmart is not even carry the cheap chinese player from Ventura, and neither is Target. Those are the #1 and #2 electronic device retailers in the country. Without these two outlets, the propogation of these players is slowed tremedously. Not my worry. HD DVD has always been cheaper, but that has not helped player sales all that much. HD DVD has 500,000 players sold, bluray has 400,000 standalones(does not include PS3). HD DVD players are half the price of bluray players, and have only sold 100,000 more units. HD DVD also had a 6-7 month head start to get there. Low prices only work when all of the studios are supporting the format. This is not the case with HD DVD.

The chinese format is not compatible with HD DVD, and cannot play HD DVD disc. No worry here. The Chinese format is for China only, not for the rest of the world.

The indian format does not have the spec's to compete with either bluray or HD DVD. It has absolutely no support from the major Hollywood studios which represent 85% of the worldwide movie sales. It does not have many sales outlets, and consumer response so far has been to say the least beyond cold. VOD has been around alot longer than both bluray and HD DVD. VOD has a long way to go before it can even be consider along side of HDM on disc. Comcast and Time Warner have stated that VOD has been pretty flat for the last couple of years.



Personally, I'm not cheering on any side, I'm only pointing out that we put far too much faith in "official" information. This can be dangerous. Maybe some of us have the resources to absorb the costs of switching formats, but that doesn't mean everyone else can. I'm only urging caution. Ultimately, no one has a crystal ball, so we'll find out next year who takes the first bite of that humble pie. In the meantime, we all have some reading to do.

What you are doing is spreading FUD. Your knowledge of this field is pretty limited, and your paranoia is pretty profound. No matter how I explain that what you call "official" sales figures don't come from the studios or manufacturer themselves, your paranoia will not allow you to trust in them. The idea of downloads over taking HDM on disc is pretty much not going to happen for many years to come. The infrastructure just is not there, and there are too many people who are not ready to part with disc as their movie sources.

Your problem is that you trust nothing, so you are left pretty much knowing nothing. This is not meant to insult you, but you just do not understand the movie marketplace. I have been in this industry 25 years. In that time you learn which information to trust, and which to discard because of bias. To make the assumption that I trust too much biased information just outlines how little you understand about this subject. Not all sources are biased, and not all information can be discounted. You demonize statistics without understanding the intent of the stat's. You discount sales figures as anyone would be stupid enough to believe information coming from interested parties, as opposed to third unrelated parties. You make wild claims without a shred of support for them. While I respect your opinions, opinions are no substitute for facts.

[Woochifer]

This is an exelent demo of hobbyist thinking, people who love movies and collecting them
just don't have the thinking process of those who want to just look at a flick with the family
ONCE.
My VOD service stores the movie for 24 hrs, and I have never felt the need to watch one
more than once.
Lets face it, most movies just aren't collectible. And the convience of not having to take a movie back is very important. Exibit A... NETFLIX.
hi-def? A lot of movies on my system are high def, most have 5.1, there is almost no
downside to this service.
And copy protection? I usually have no trouble copying a copy for my own use.
But most of what I am interested in keeping is concerts, music vids, etc, and theres
quite a few hd concerts on MHD.
BUT even with stringent copyguards it still doesnt matter, most will find that VOD
is just fine for their needs.
I used to have a VCR, "timeshifted" stuff all of the time.
Now I have a DVR, and delete stuff all of the time. If its really special I just shoot it to my dvd recorder. As a result I no longer have a closet of unwatched tapes.
And It has to be very special for me to copy it. I watched Chuck, that new NBC show
in glorious HD, loved it, and then, ZAP, gone!
And a lot of shows, especially on basic cable, replay all of the time anyway.
VOD is a baby now, but flat screen TV was a baby a few years ago.
Moviegallery is closing 500 stores, Blockbuster is imitating Netflix.
And people tell me all of the time about watching a new movie on the "payperview"
Quite a few disc sales are for rental, if rentals collapse it will soon be only collectors
who are buying discs.
And don't forget ordinary HDTV, I watched "jagged edge" on MOJO tonight, and the print was glorious, absolutely beautiful, and while I was watching it I wasn't watching a disc.
The new season is starting, and its a wonder just how good "ordinary" TV looks in HD,
Not to mention sports, etc.
ALL is a competition for disc, the ONLY thing disc can do is be a collectors item,
and how many collectors are out there?:1:

And your post is a perfect illustration of VHS-era thinking. The home video industry is now a purchase-driven market, whereas in the VHS era it was a rental-driven market. All of your points address rentals, but don't speak at all to the behavior of the purchase market, which grew by leaps and bounds because of the DVD. Downloading will basically take over the market niches currently occupied by PPV and rentals. But, in order to completely supplant disc media, video downloads cannot come locked down with DRM and play restrictions.

Plenty of people like to watch favorite movies more than once, loan DVDs to friends, take movies with them when they travel, take their time to mine through the bonus features, etc. All of the video download services out there currently don't allow for that kind of flexibility -- the files are restricted to a specific device, they lack portability, they expire/self-destruct, etc. The people for whom this does not matter are the same people who currently subscribe to Netflix and/or watch PPV. With restrictive DRM, self-destructing files, and no true "on demand" downloading speeds, video downloads are nothing more than a lateral market shift away from existing rental/PPV sources.

You think that parents will be willing to shell out a view fee for 30th time when their kids want to watch Cars yet again? Or if you paid to download a movie, but didn't have time to watch it before the file expired -- are people going to be fine with paying the rental fee a second time to watch a movie that they already have sitting on their hard drive?

Downloading might have the potential displace disc media if the download files allow for unlimited viewing and portability from device to device, but I doubt that the piracy paranoid studios will make it that easy. If anything, a new emerging model that's coming online is the Burn-to-Disc download purchase, which would get around the limitations inherent in video downloads by giving consumers additional options and flexibility.

[Mr Peabody]

In addition to what Wooch already pointed out, VOD will remain insignificant because the cable companies are ran by complete and total idiots. I'm surprised they are still able to stay in business. Another thing is their PPV selection is too limited to really effect rentals.

[PeruvianSkies]

And your post is a perfect illustration of VHS-era thinking. The home video industry is now a purchase-driven market, whereas in the VHS era it was a rental-driven market. All of your points address rentals, but don't speak at all to the behavior of the purchase market, which grew by leaps and bounds because of the DVD. Downloading will basically take over the market niches currently occupied by PPV and rentals. But, in order to completely supplant disc media, video downloads cannot come locked down with DRM and play restrictions.

Plenty of people like to watch favorite movies more than once, loan DVDs to friends, take movies with them when they travel, take their time to mine through the bonus features, etc. All of the video download services out there currently don't allow for that kind of flexibility -- the files are restricted to a specific device, they lack portability, they expire/self-destruct, etc. The people for whom this does not matter are the same people who currently subscribe to Netflix and/or watch PPV. With restrictive DRM, self-destructing files, and no true "on demand" downloading speeds, video downloads are nothing more than a lateral market shift away from existing rental/PPV sources.

You think that parents will be willing to shell out a view fee for 30th time when their kids want to watch Cars yet again? Or if you paid to download a movie, but didn't have time to watch it before the file expired -- are people going to be fine with paying the rental fee a second time to watch a movie that they already have sitting on their hard drive?

Downloading might have the potential displace disc media if the download files allow for unlimited viewing and portability from device to device, but I doubt that the piracy paranoid studios will make it that easy. If anything, a new emerging model that's coming online is the Burn-to-Disc download purchase, which would get around the limitations inherent in video downloads by giving consumers additional options and flexibility.

Talk about hitting the nail on the head! I remember back in the day of working at a video store and parents would come in renting THE LION KING week after week after week, eventually it became (once DVD came out ) more profitable to offer people a buy option, which is exactly what happened. They could either rent the movie for 4 bucks or after the movie was out for 4 weeks they had the option to buy it for 10. What ended up happening though is that store went out of business because they couldn't keep up with the demands of buying versus renting. Good idea at first, but a long-term death blow.

[pixelthis]

And your post is a perfect illustration of VHS-era thinking. The home video industry is now a purchase-driven market, whereas in the VHS era it was a rental-driven market. All of your points address rentals, but don't speak at all to the behavior of the purchase market, which grew by leaps and bounds because of the DVD. Downloading will basically take over the market niches currently occupied by PPV and rentals. But, in order to completely supplant disc media, video downloads cannot come locked down with DRM and play restrictions.

Plenty of people like to watch favorite movies more than once, loan DVDs to friends, take movies with them when they travel, take their time to mine through the bonus features, etc. All of the video download services out there currently don't allow for that kind of flexibility -- the files are restricted to a specific device, they lack portability, they expire/self-destruct, etc. The people for whom this does not matter are the same people who currently subscribe to Netflix and/or watch PPV. With restrictive DRM, self-destructing files, and no true "on demand" downloading speeds, video downloads are nothing more than a lateral market shift away from existing rental/PPV sources.

You think that parents will be willing to shell out a view fee for 30th time when their kids want to watch Cars yet again? Or if you paid to download a movie, but didn't have time to watch it before the file expired -- are people going to be fine with paying the rental fee a second time to watch a movie that they already have sitting on their hard drive?

Downloading might have the potential displace disc media if the download files allow for unlimited viewing and portability from device to device, but I doubt that the piracy paranoid studios will make it that easy. If anything, a new emerging model that's coming online is the Burn-to-Disc download purchase, which would get around the limitations inherent in video downloads by giving consumers additional options and flexibility.

They do like to do these things, with certain movies, whichthey will buy, but not with most.
And DVD became a purchase market when DVD started selling for five to 20 bucks
DVD was the revolution, HDDVD and blu are the evolution.
Trust me, to an enthusiast HD on disc is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but most will compare the price to DVD and stick to DVD, it just wont be worth it to them.
Why pay 25 to 30 bucks for a copy of CARS with marginal improvement (to them)
when you can make a copy off of premium channels with a DVD recorder for free?
Or buy a copy on DVD for ten bucks?
As for VCR era thinking, we are back in the era of the VCR.
GO INTO SEARS, WALLMART, etc, and you will find dvd recorders taking up most of the shelf space, why buy a player when you can have a recorder for a few bucks more?.
I HAVE HAD A STANDALONE dvd recorder for a few years, have a rather large collection of movies and concerts, videos, TV series, the discs record once, but they're cheaper than dirt, and the PQ ain't bad really.
FOR marginally collectible stuff, a bootleg is just fine, and with lightscribe the lables
look great.
And heres the rub, and the largest hurdle for the new disc formats,
to many there is just not enough improvement to justify the investment.
most think of a homemade DVD as a hugh improvement over VCR, AND THEY'RE CORRECT. They don't care if a storebought DVD is "better".
And if they don't care about that they sure wont care about a 30$ HD disc.
Its deja vu all over again, I couldn't "sell" laserdisc to friends, they loved mine, were amazed by it sometimes, but just didn't want to pay the high prices for discs.
And when you can "buy" an HD view on vod, and make a standard def copy if you like it,
(which I HAVE HAD NO TROUBLE DOING) then HDDVD and Bluray become more problematic.
They sold 288 million C.D's in 1990, don't know how much they sold last year, but not that much by far. THEY underestimated the DL threat, if they thought about it at all,
will hollywood do the same with VOD?
I mean, I was downloading tv shows, movies, music, entire programs off of peer to peer
over a cable modem five years ago!
What will happen in another five?:1:

[nightflier]

Sir T.,

The books that I listed, while definitely political in nature, do a very good job of describing political collusion with the corporate sector. They each describe in detail how stock prices, white papers, research funding, corporate reports, media releases, statistics and news stories are manipulated, twisted, and realigned to meet a business goal. No they do not discuss BR and HD-DVD sales, many of them were written well before those were on the radar and they are focussed on much larger market segments. What they do describe, however, is a pattern of behavior that should call the "official" information into question.

In my reference to the Friedman / Chicago school of economics, the pattern is that changes, particularly revolutionary changes, create a sense of shock in society that allows corporations to further their agenda in ways that would in a slower, evolutionary progression be unacceptable (think the Pariot Act after 9/11/01 or Pinochet after 9/11/71). For a full explanation, read The Shock Doctrine. There's no point in discussing who or what caused the revolutionary changes, but what is significant is that this is a pattern of behavior that is a standard sequence of events, accepted as the way to get things done in business. This, by the way, is not unfounded, marginal, or really disputed in the literature.

While our discussion about BR & HD-DVD is on a much smaller scale, what we do have is a sudden reversal earlier this year of HD-DVD's lead in the market place. A small, tiny revolution, if you will, that many people attribute to the release of the PS3. What I am concerned about, and I don't think I am alone, is how much of what is being reported in the press, the sales figures, and even the Nielsen ratings is, if not hyperbole, at least marginally off by a few percentage points in order to force a dramatic change in the purchasing choices of the general public.

It also does not need to be a big fudging of the numbers. A few percentage points is perhaps all that is needed, if you consider all the many other factors that do come into play such as margins of error, misjudgment in the selection of the survey sample, and the emphasizing of favorable stats over less favorable ones. If you then add the unknowns related to returns, freebies/coupons, the black/gray market; the difference grows. Then just to add to the confusion, we throw in fervent online debates, that for the most part are from people who have already chosen their format of choice - as a result, the whole picture of what is really happening in this industry becomes very murky.

You mentioned the Nielsen ratings. I know they pride themselves on impartiality, but they have a few skeletons in their closet too (from a quick search online):

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4864036
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5053/is_200506/ai_n18349292
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4191/is_20030703/ai_n10023764

These are not necessarily reasons for dismissing them outright, I know, but it shows that every "official" source should be scrutinized. Since I believe that it only takes a few percentage points to tip the scales of a format war, I don't think it is too much of a stretch to suggest that even a 2-1 lead is not the whole picture.

To say that I am a paranoiac, that all this is in my head, or to marginalize my opinion is missing the point. The fact is that we don't know, we can't know, in this industry, if a format war is over (as Pixel contends), that the statistics are overwhelming correct, or that unforeseen future products/announcements/events will not reverse the 2-1 ratio. A year ago, I would have been arguing the same to people who professed that HD-DVD was the clear winner.

I can accept that the SACD/DVD-A scenario may not be an ideal fit for an example that may be similar in direction, if not scale, but you have to admit that there are some similarities worth noting. I certainly didn't have the insight into the events that followed the release of those formats (after all who has access to interview leading figures from Sony & Telarc), but it is still disturbing to me, and I think it should also be troubling to everyone else, that during that format war, the status of the industry and profits for both formats was by and large kept from the public. Was it collusion? Who knows? But it certainly leaves me a little more doubtful of the "official" story than I was before.

Again, I am not saying either format will win, I'm only urging caution at proclaiming a winner this early in the war. If I may say so, your early negative experience with HD-DVD makes me wonder where you would stand had that negative experience been with BR. Likewise, your ability to purchase new disks/players at a rate that most of us can only wish for, also makes you an unlikely typical consumer or commentator. Finally, you have to admit, that the zeal with which many BR proponents are proclaiming victory is in some way affecting the format war, if not making people feel just a bit uncomfortable.

[pixelthis]

Sir T.,

The books that I listed, while definitely political in nature, do a very good job of describing political collusion with the corporate sector. They each describe in detail how stock prices, white papers, research funding, corporate reports, media releases, statistics and news stories are manipulated, twisted, and realigned to meet a business goal. No they do not discuss BR and HD-DVD sales, many of them were written well before those were on the radar and they are focussed on much larger market segments. What they do describe, however, is a pattern of behavior that should call the "official" information into question.

In my reference to the Friedman / Chicago school of economics, the pattern is that changes, particularly revolutionary changes, create a sense of shock in society that allows corporations to further their agenda in ways that would in a slower, evolutionary progression be unacceptable (think the Pariot Act after 9/11/01 or Pinochet after 9/11/71). For a full explanation, read The Shock Doctrine. There's no point in discussing who or what caused the revolutionary changes, but what is significant is that this is a pattern of behavior that is a standard sequence of events, accepted as the way to get things done in business. This, by the way, is not unfounded, marginal, or really disputed in the literature.

While our discussion about BR & HD-DVD is on a much smaller scale, what we do have is a sudden reversal earlier this year of HD-DVD's lead in the market place. A small, tiny revolution, if you will, that many people attribute to the release of the PS3. What I am concerned about, and I don't think I am alone, is how much of what is being reported in the press, the sales figures, and even the Nielsen ratings is, if not hyperbole, at least marginally off by a few percentage points in order to force a dramatic change in the purchasing choices of the general public.

It also does not need to be a big fudging of the numbers. A few percentage points is perhaps all that is needed, if you consider all the many other factors that do come into play such as margins of error, misjudgment in the selection of the survey sample, and the emphasizing of favorable stats over less favorable ones. If you then add the unknowns related to returns, freebies/coupons, the black/gray market; the difference grows. Then just to add to the confusion, we throw in fervent online debates, that for the most part are from people who have already chosen their format of choice - as a result, the whole picture of what is really happening in this industry becomes very murky.

You mentioned the Nielsen ratings. I know they pride themselves on impartiality, but they have a few skeletons in their closet too (from a quick search online):

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4864036
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5053/is_200506/ai_n18349292
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4191/is_20030703/ai_n10023764

These are not necessarily reasons for dismissing them outright, I know, but it shows that every "official" source should be scrutinized. Since I believe that it only takes a few percentage points to tip the scales of a format war, I don't think it is too much of a stretch to suggest that even a 2-1 lead is not the whole picture.

To say that I am a paranoiac, that all this is in my head, or to marginalize my opinion is missing the point. The fact is that we don't know, we can't know, in this industry, if a format war is over (as Pixel contends), that the statistics are overwhelming correct, or that unforeseen future products/announcements/events will not reverse the 2-1 ratio. A year ago, I would have been arguing the same to people who professed that HD-DVD was the clear winner.

I can accept that the SACD/DVD-A scenario may not be an ideal fit for an example that may be similar in direction, if not scale, but you have to admit that there are some similarities worth noting. I certainly didn't have the insight into the events that followed the release of those formats (after all who has access to interview leading figures from Sony & Telarc), but it is still disturbing to me, and I think it should also be troubling to everyone else, that during that format war, the status of the industry and profits for both formats was by and large kept from the public. Was it collusion? Who knows? But it certainly leaves me a little more doubtful of the "official" story than I was before.

Again, I am not saying either format will win, I'm only urging caution at proclaiming a winner this early in the war. If I may say so, your early negative experience with HD-DVD makes me wonder where you would stand had that negative experience been with BR. Likewise, your ability to purchase new disks/players at a rate that most of us can only wish for, also makes you an unlikely typical consumer or commentator. Finally, you have to admit, that the zeal with which many BR proponents are proclaiming victory is in some way affecting the format war, if not making people feel just a bit uncomfortable.

Not only is the format war "over" I am suspicous as to weather or not it ever existed.
DIVX made rental stores take sides, and it spurred the sale of DVD.
If it weren't for this "format" war how many would know about HD on dvd? or care?
Both sides are incompatible, true, but discs are authored in a way that it would be easy to
convert masters to either formatAnd Toshibas entry is rediculousy weak, with what, one studio?
This "format war" might just be a big publicity stunt to stir interest.
Just a theory:1:

[drseid]

Not only is the format war "over" I am suspicous as to weather or not it ever existed. Toshibas entry is rediculousy weak, with what, one studio?
This "format war" might just be a big publicity stunt to stir interest.
Just a theory:1:

Only in your dreams, Pixel ol' boy. While I own both formats so it does not hurt me either way as to which wins out (if either ever does), I almost wish HD DVD wins just to see your reaction. Keep drinking that Kool Aid. :-)

---Dave

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sir T.,

The books that I listed, while definitely political in nature, do a very good job of describing political collusion with the corporate sector. They each describe in detail how stock prices, white papers, research funding, corporate reports, media releases, statistics and news stories are manipulated, twisted, and realigned to meet a business goal. No they do not discuss BR and HD-DVD sales, many of them were written well before those were on the radar and they are focussed on much larger market segments. What they do describe, however, is a pattern of behavior that should call the "official" information into question.

Point one. There is no evidence of collusion here, which completely mitigates any need to mention any books, or any other factoid that alludes to collusion. Sources that collect data, collect data and distribute it to those who can manipulate it as they please. It is not the job(or desire) of a collector of information to change, alter, or obfuscate any information that is paid for. It would not be in their best interest to do so, especially when their financial health is at stake.


In my reference to the Friedman / Chicago school of economics, the pattern is that changes, particularly revolutionary changes, create a sense of shock in society that allows corporations to further their agenda in ways that would in a slower, evolutionary progression be unacceptable (think the Pariot Act after 9/11/01 or Pinochet after 9/11/71). For a full explanation, read The Shock Doctrine. There's no point in discussing who or what caused the revolutionary changes, but what is significant is that this is a pattern of behavior that is a standard sequence of events, accepted as the way to get things done in business. This, by the way, is not unfounded, marginal, or really disputed in the literature.

It may not be unfounded, but it sure in the heck is unrelated at this time. There is absolutely no correlation between 9/11 and sales of software


While our discussion about BR & HD-DVD is on a much smaller scale, what we do have is a sudden reversal earlier this year of HD-DVD's lead in the market place. A small, tiny revolution, if you will, that many people attribute to the release of the PS3. What I am concerned about, and I don't think I am alone, is how much of what is being reported in the press, the sales figures, and even the Nielsen ratings is, if not hyperbole, at least marginally off by a few percentage points in order to force a dramatic change in the purchasing choices of the general public.

More majoring in minors and paranoia. Nielson goes to a great deal of trouble to check and recheck their data. It is the reason my company, and thousands of other get their data from them. It is not their job to twist the data on behalf of others agenda, its their job to report it, and let the studio or manufacturer distort it as they please. Once again you are trying to dismiss things out of your lack of knowledge, or just to make a point.


It also does not need to be a big fudging of the numbers. A few percentage points is perhaps all that is needed, if you consider all the many other factors that do come into play such as margins of error, misjudgment in the selection of the survey sample, and the emphasizing of favorable stats over less favorable ones. If you then add the unknowns related to returns, freebies/coupons, the black/gray market; the difference grows. Then just to add to the confusion, we throw in fervent online debates, that for the most part are from people who have already chosen their format of choice - as a result, the whole picture of what is really happening in this industry becomes very murky.

More paranoia, more speculation, more non applicable, and more I am trying to disguise the fact that you don't know this industry that well.


You mentioned the Nielsen ratings. I know they pride themselves on impartiality, but they have a few skeletons in their closet too (from a quick search online):

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4864036

No damn relation to HD DVD or bluray at all. Stop bringing garbage in from other industry's into this one. The broadcasters disagree with the way Neilson collects their data, because why? It changes the amount of income they receive. A difference of strategy, not a skeleton as you mention. Can someone say Inflammatory and pumped up?



http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5053/is_200506/ai_n18349292

Anyone can make a claim, but they have to prove it. Did they prove it? I don't see it, and you have provided nothing that say's they did. An allegation with no proof, oh, much like you have done time and time again in this argument. Still nothing to do with HD DVD and Bluray sales figures. Maybe you should write instructions on how to muddy clear water.




http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4191/is_20030703/ai_n10023764

Again, nothing to do with HD DVD and Bluray sales.


These are not necessarily reasons for dismissing them outright, I know, but it shows that every "official" source should be scrutinized. Since I believe that it only takes a few percentage points to tip the scales of a format war, I don't think it is too much of a stretch to suggest that even a 2-1 lead is not the whole picture.

This has nothing to do with sales of DVD's, HD DVD's or Bluray. You have presented ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that directly ties anything to the subject at hand. Nielsons is a very large company, and it is expected that every little boy who has to compete with them has an issue. What happens in the broadcast industry is very different from what happens in the movie industry. Show me where sales figures from HD DVD and bluray have been found incorrect, and you have a point. Just finding out things about Neilsons doesn't make a point.


To say that I am a paranoiac, that all this is in my head, or to marginalize my opinion is missing the point.

Actually it IS the point!!!



The fact is that we don't know, we can't know, in this industry, if a format war is over (as Pixel contends), that the statistics are overwhelming correct, or that unforeseen future products/announcements/events will not reverse the 2-1 ratio. A year ago, I would have been arguing the same to people who professed that HD-DVD was the clear winner.

It would have been quite stupid to say a year ago HD DVD was the winner. Bluray was barely out of the starting gate a year ago. And the fact that HD DVD was so quickly overcomed by bluray shows that that would have been an impossible claim. Secondly, any future product that is to overtake HD DVD and Bluray, would have to have the support of the Studio's and CE manufacturers. There is no such product. Aside of any studio switching sides(something that is not going to be decided until after christmas at the least), there is no event that will change things. Paramount/Dreamworks went exclusive a month ago, and that hasn't changed sales figures very much, or if at all. Neither Universal nor Paramounts titles were even found in the top ten of all HDM disc media.


I can accept that the SACD/DVD-A scenario may not be an ideal fit for an example that may be similar in direction, if not scale, but you have to admit that there are some similarities worth noting.

If you want to major in minors, then I guess there are some points worth noting. I don't major in minors, do you?


I certainly didn't have the insight into the events that followed the release of those formats (after all who has access to interview leading figures from Sony & Telarc), but it is still disturbing to me, and I think it should also be troubling to everyone else, that during that format war, the status of the industry and profits for both formats was by and large kept from the public.

Bull. Sony is a publicly traded company, thus their profits are publicly listed. You can find quartly profit and yearly profits. Telarc is a private company, and thus does not have to publicly report its profits. Neither of this has any relationship to the war itself, because it is widely reported that SACD's could not even get close to CD sales. If this disturbs you, you don't have enough in your life to do.


Was it collusion? Who knows? But it certainly leaves me a little more doubtful of the "official" story than I was before.

Fits perfectly in your paranoid mode. Especially because it is irrelevant to the grand scheme of things.


Again, I am not saying either format will win, I'm only urging caution at proclaiming a winner this early in the war. If I may say so, your early negative experience with HD-DVD makes me wonder where you would stand had that negative experience been with BR. Likewise, your ability to purchase new disks/players at a rate that most of us can only wish for, also makes you an unlikely typical consumer or commentator. Finally, you have to admit, that the zeal with which many BR proponents are proclaiming victory is in some way affecting the format war, if not making people feel just a bit uncomfortable.

No one has proclaimed a winner here. NO ONE. What has been said here is the this is Bluray to lose. They have the CE support, the studio support(in terms of blockbuster hits in the last two to three years), and the infrastructure for continued growth. These are all items Toshiba DOES NOT have.

If BR let me down like HD DVD did, then I would not support it. That is not the way it played out, and cannot be included as part of this arguement.

My buying patterns have nothing to do with this debate, unless its your desire to dismiss me as well as the facts, figures, and reality.

Unfortunately nobody is all the uncomfortable. People are unaware. According to a survey that Best Buy recently did, people are confused as hell with this war. They believe that once you have a HDTV, you are getting High definition no matter what you watch. People are uninformed not uncomfortable. Though in this industry people have always at one point or another been confused and uninformed(see DVD at its beginning)

It is fairly obvious to me that you have not visited many other A/V websites than this. AVS is all HD DVD. Hometheater SPot....all HD DVD. Hidefinitiondigest.com is mostly HD DVD. If the truth be told, most all online websites have gone HD DVD crazy. So claims of victory have been coming from both sides, especially since the defection of Paramount. I guess this shows that you have not been paying very much attention to current events.

[pixelthis]

Only in your dreams, Pixel ol' boy. While I own both formats so it does not hurt me either way as to which wins out (if either ever does), I almost wish HD DVD wins just to see your reaction. Keep drinking that Kool Aid. :-)

---Dave

I'm not worried about it, never gonna happen.
So what brand of cement will you use when its time to make a boat anchor
out of your HD dvd player?:1:

[PeruvianSkies]

Only in your dreams, Pixel ol' boy. While I own both formats so it does not hurt me either way as to which wins out (if either ever does), I almost wish HD DVD wins just to see your reaction. Keep drinking that Kool Aid. :-)

---Dave

It's no use. He's beyond the point of helping.

[pixelthis]

It's no use. He's beyond the point of helping.

And you don't realize you NEED help, mostly of the pschyotropic drug variety.
you're kinda like a little rat dog, jumping up somebodies leg:1:

[nightflier]

Sir T.,

The books and links I posted deal with statistics and their reliability. You can dismiss my comments for being too broad all you want, but then with the same token I can dismiss yours for being too specific. This dogged focus on official figures only prevent seeing the forest for the trees. It's like they tell you in driver's ed, don't just look at the road right in front of your car. Your information about this topic is so focussed on those sales figures that you apparently can't fathom that there are other factors involved in determining the winner in this war. This format war does not exist in a vacuum as much as that would simplify things for some people, it's just not the way things are.

And don't even sit there and tell me that no one here has been calling a winner. As a matter of fact, Pixel has done nothing but. Look, I'm not going to sit here and debate this point for point forever. I do have a life. You want to see the world through tunnels, then you might find that you end up being wrong more often than you like.

I'll give you this, if in a year or two we find that BR wins out, I will admit it, but if VOD/Downloads marginalize BR and HD/DVD, I expect you to do the same. If that happens, I'll be sure to include a few links and articles making the comparison with the SACD-DVD-A format war, because you & I both know there'll be plenti of them.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Sir T.,

The books and links I posted deal with statistics and their reliability. You can dismiss my comments for being too broad all you want, but then with the same token I can dismiss yours for being too specific. This dogged focus on official figures only prevent seeing the forest for the trees. It's like they tell you in driver's ed, don't just look at the road right in front of your car. Your information about this topic is so focussed on those sales figures that you apparently can't fathom that there are other factors involved in determining the winner in this war. This format war does not exist in a vacuum as much as that would simplify things for some people, it's just not the way things are.

The books and links you posted deal with statistics and their reliability, but do not focus on what is happening right now and today. This dogged focus on the only thing that is for sure in this war is designed to keep you from interjecting every irrelevant point you can conjure up and muddle up the discussion. Your dogged focus on believing nothing you have no access or knowledge on, keeps you bottled up in your own dogma.

I have been reading quite a few of your disagreements with other since I have been back to this forum. Your arguements tend to be unfocused, and replete with topics unrelated to the subject being discussed. You think that if you just throw things out there, something will get traction, and often times it does not.

You seemed to have all the answers as to how I come to a conclusion, but the problem is you really don't. Sales figures is just one part of the picture. Once again studio support, manufacturing support, and infrastucture support all played a roll in how I look at this arguement. That is hardly a pin point specific perspective, it looks rather broad to me.


And don't even sit there and tell me that no one here has been calling a winner. As a matter of fact, Pixel has done nothing but. Look, I'm not going to sit here and debate this point for point forever. I do have a life. You want to see the world through tunnels, then you might find that you end up being wrong more often than you like.

I am not Pixel am I? Just because my perspective is different from yours doesn't mean it is seeing through tunnels. I know more about this industry than you ever will. You don't work in it, and how it operates completely escapes you. Anyone building an argument based on unknowns doesn't have an arguement. You have built your entire argument on unknowns.


I'll give you this, if in a year or two we find that BR wins out, I will admit it, but if VOD/Downloads marginalize BR and HD/DVD, I expect you to do the same. If that happens, I'll be sure to include a few links and articles making the comparison with the SACD-DVD-A format war, because you & I both know there'll be plenti of them.

Its a stupid wager. We already know the infrastrucure for downloads is not there. We already know that service providers are clamping down on downloads because of the increased download traffic. The net as we live in it now is much like the airlines industry. It is over capacity. The next generation is high speed internet is still not developed, and what has been announced is WAY too expensive for joe6pack to afford. There is still no viable and affordable storage solution, and no viable way to get that information to the television. Let's face it, nobody is sitting in front of a computer looking at movies, movie industry survey's have already proven this over and over.

There is little or no comparison of this war to the SACD and DVD-A war. That kind of comparison is for people who do not have the capacity to think critically. If you dig below the surface, the wars could not be more different. You have had plenty of time to make this arguement stick, yet you have failed. The only comparison that could be made is that both wars confused the consumer, and guess what, wars do that to people. Look at the Iraq war now.

I know this is difficult for you, but you need to admit that you know not nearly enough information about the movie industry as it relates to downloads and internet capacity. Your arguements have been weak, and current events show that the picture you are trying to paint is false. VOD has been around a lot longer than both HD DVD and BR, and the market right now is no bigger. As I have stated earlier, both Comcast and Warner have already stated that in 2006 VOD has already flattened out and has essentially become stagnant. That is not the case for either bluray or HD DVD who market is still growing and progressing steadily but slowly.

Argue away, I am just going to turn your points into swiss cheese, they are that flimsy and uninformed.

[Smokey]

Its a stupid wager. We already know the infrastrucure for downloads is not there. We already know that service providers are clamping down on downloads because of the increased download traffic. The net as we live in it now is much like the airlines industry. It is over capacity. The next generation is high speed internet is still not developed, and what has been announced is WAY too expensive for joe6pack to afford.

Unfortunately your statement is true, but it may only apply in the USA.

The following artical from Washintonpost state that Broadband service im Japan is eight to 30 times as fast as in the United States -- and considerably cheaper. And South Korea and Europe are not too far behind Japan.

http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2007/08/29/GR2007082900422.gif

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/28/AR2007082801990.html

[PeruvianSkies]

I am not Pixel am I? Just because my perspective is different from yours doesn't mean it is seeing through tunnels. I know more about this industry than you ever will. You don't work in it, and how it operates completely escapes you. Anyone building an argument based on unknowns doesn't have an arguement. You have built your entire argument on unknowns.


Yep. He obviously does work IN the industry because only someone who worked IN the industry could be this big of a pompous a-hole.

[Mr Peabody]

PS, and anyone interested, here's the real story on Dracula. I'm surprised our resident insider Terrence didn't know this but he latched on to the internet DSD conspiracy.

News
With only a few days left until the much anticipated Blu-ray release of 'Bram Stoker's Dracula', the title is already causing confusion amongst the few lucky enough to get advanced copies. Early reviews have been mixed, and the web forums have erupted in consumer backlash, claiming Sony has destroyed the transfer. Thankfully, one of our Insiders was able to get the real story: this Blu-ray release reflects the wishes of director Francis Ford Coppola.

The masters used for the Superbit DVD release were not approved by Mr. Coppola, while the Blu-ray masters were
The color correction on the DVD was not done by direction of Mr. Coppola
For the latest master, a representative from Zoetrope was charged with checking the color correction to match the wishes of Mr. Coppola
The Blu-ray release was not accomplished quickly; it was carefully planned with full cooperation of Zoetrope

So when you sit down to watch this Blu-ray on Tuesday, remember that you are watching the absolute best video release of 'Bram Stoker's Dracula' ever created, and that it is exactly as the director intended. Any comparisons to previous video releases are invalid, as this release was approved by Mr. Coppola and his team at Zoetrope.

[PeruvianSkies]

PS, and anyone interested, here's the real story on Dracula. I'm surprised our resident insider Terrence didn't know this but he latched on to the internet DSD conspiracy.

News
With only a few days left until the much anticipated Blu-ray release of 'Bram Stoker's Dracula', the title is already causing confusion amongst the few lucky enough to get advanced copies. Early reviews have been mixed, and the web forums have erupted in consumer backlash, claiming Sony has destroyed the transfer. Thankfully, one of our Insiders was able to get the real story: this Blu-ray release reflects the wishes of director Francis Ford Coppola.

The masters used for the Superbit DVD release were not approved by Mr. Coppola, while the Blu-ray masters were
The color correction on the DVD was not done by direction of Mr. Coppola
For the latest master, a representative from Zoetrope was charged with checking the color correction to match the wishes of Mr. Coppola
The Blu-ray release was not accomplished quickly; it was carefully planned with full cooperation of Zoetrope

So when you sit down to watch this Blu-ray on Tuesday, remember that you are watching the absolute best video release of 'Bram Stoker's Dracula' ever created, and that it is exactly as the director intended. Any comparisons to previous video releases are invalid, as this release was approved by Mr. Coppola and his team at Zoetrope.

Well, I am curious. Coppola also approved the Criterion LD, so if there are differences between the LD and the BD....than it'll make for an interesting topic.

[pixelthis]

Unfortunately your statement is true, but it may only apply in the USA.

The following artical from Washintonpost state that Broadband service im Japan is eight to 30 times as fast as in the United States -- and considerably cheaper. And South Korea and Europe are not too far behind Japan.

http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2007/08/29/GR2007082900422.gif

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/28/AR2007082801990.html

The thing is, the 2 mb in the US is plenty.
When I miss a show on TV I go to the website, I watch television all of the time off of streaming video.
And maybe people aren't watching movies off of traditional "computers" but what you're missing is that most of todays sets have RGB inputs and can display a desktop well.
My 37in VIZIO makes an exelent computer monitor, a wireless keyboard and mouse and you're good to go.
You kmow how computer companies package the same machine and sell it in the sunday paper?
I saw basically the same dual core 300 gb 1gb ram dvd duallayer rec/player computer sold by several companies, all were under 500$ and had a 19in monitor, which in itself
is good for casual movie watching.
The first tv I had was 19in and was considered a good size back then..
Cable has been on a massive infrastructure improvement program for years, laying down the fibre optic. I am not saying its a big deal now, but LCD wasn't a big deal a few years ago, and now its gotten cheap and HDTV is selling for what would have been unbeleivable
just a year or two ago. I mean, an Olevia 32 in for 500$?
32IN LCD was a grand a year and a half ago.
All I AM SAYING is that in a rapidly changing world this stuff can jump up and bite ya in the butt is all.
I mean, Sony introduced a few months ago a paper thin TV screen that you can roll up!
Music companies didn't pay attention to downloading untill it was too late, and most marketing wonks are just that... wonks.
THIS IS A VERY DICEY time to be introducing anything new, and the market for HD on dvd just hasn't materialized, at least not enough for economies of scale to kick in:1:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Yep. He obviously does work IN the industry because only someone who worked IN the industry could be this big of a pompous a-hole.

Gee thanks PS. Please, in your vacuous state realize that there is a fine line between pompous and confident. I am okay with being called an a-hole, that just goes to show that I haven't changed one bit since I left. You have to love that kind of constistancy.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

PS, and anyone interested, here's the real story on Dracula. I'm surprised our resident insider Terrence didn't know this but he latched on to the internet DSD conspiracy.

I know far more about this issue than I want to, but since nobody ever mentioned it to me here, I have never discussed it. Had somebody asked me anything regarding this titles, I would have been able to answer quite precisely and with great detail.


News
With only a few days left until the much anticipated Blu-ray release of 'Bram Stoker's Dracula', the title is already causing confusion amongst the few lucky enough to get advanced copies. Early reviews have been mixed, and the web forums have erupted in consumer backlash, claiming Sony has destroyed the transfer. Thankfully, one of our Insiders was able to get the real story: this Blu-ray release reflects the wishes of director Francis Ford Coppola.

The masters used for the Superbit DVD release were not approved by Mr. Coppola, while the Blu-ray masters were
The color correction on the DVD was not done by direction of Mr. Coppola
For the latest master, a representative from Zoetrope was charged with checking the color correction to match the wishes of Mr. Coppola
The Blu-ray release was not accomplished quickly; it was carefully planned with full cooperation of Zoetrope

So when you sit down to watch this Blu-ray on Tuesday, remember that you are watching the absolute best video release of 'Bram Stoker's Dracula' ever created, and that it is exactly as the director intended. Any comparisons to previous video releases are invalid, as this release was approved by Mr. Coppola and his team at Zoetrope.

And to further add to this, and to show just how wrong early reviews have been on this, here are some tidbits;

1. The new transfer was supervised. This means that a representative from Zoetrope was charged we checking the color correction to make sure it met with the intentions of Mr. Coppola.

2. The new transfer and color correction were not done hastily. This title was carefully planned for BD and Sony was given the full cooperation of Zoetrope to get it done right.

3. The masters used for the DVD versions of this title were not endorsed by Mr. Coppola, the BD version is. The color correction on the DVD releases was not what Mr. Coppola wanted, regardless of the fact that the elevated brightness in some scenes on the DVD can reveal something not seen on the BD.

4. The answer print of the film is darker than the Blu-ray (answer prints are the approved color timed result that release prints are supposed to match).

5. Mr. Coppola intentionally shunned digital special effects techniques on this film in order to get a result that had the look of the classic horror films. The optical effects lead to some dirt and softening of the master.

Mr Peabody, never assume that I do not know something just because I don't mention it. I have been in contact and coodinating with the other insiders on bluray.com to counter the negative reviews on this title for the last three weeks. Since all of us studio insiders work together at bluray.com, I am prevy to alot of information that nobody knows about.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Well, I am curious. Coppola also approved the Criterion LD, so if there are differences between the LD and the BD....than it'll make for an interesting topic.

Well, actually it wouldn't. You have to keep in mind the format, and its resolution. Part of the problem between the superbit DVD, previous LD releases, and the bluray release is an issue of what Mr. Coppola wants to be seen, and doesn't want to be seen. Because the resolution of both the superbit and LD disc is so much lower, the studio decided to raise the background levels to increase the perceived detail in the darker scenes. You can do this because as you go from foreground to background on these formats, objects are less distinct and clear. If the same practice was done for bluray, you would see far more detail going into the backgrounds than Mr. Coppola wants the viewer to see, hence the darker background on the bluray disc.

You can have Mr. Coppola approve both the Criterion LD and the Bluray release, and they both be different because each format offers different resolution abilities.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Unfortunately your statement is true, but it may only apply in the USA.

The following artical from Washintonpost state that Broadband service im Japan is eight to 30 times as fast as in the United States -- and considerably cheaper. And South Korea and Europe are not too far behind Japan.

http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2007/08/29/GR2007082900422.gif

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/28/AR2007082801990.html

Thanks Smokey,

I am aware of the state of internet speeds everywhere else, but my arguements are pretty much confined to here in the US.

The Irony of your information fully supports what I have been saying. The fact that you have such high speeds in Japan would make you think that downloading movies must be big there. Well, interestingly enough, the market for bluray disc is larger than the market for downloading movies in Japan, even with the higher internet speeds.

[PeruvianSkies]

Well, actually it wouldn't. You have to keep in mind the format, and its resolution. Part of the problem between the superbit DVD, previous LD releases, and the bluray release is an issue of what Mr. Coppola wants to be seen, and doesn't want to be seen. Because the resolution of both the superbit and LD disc is so much lower, the studio decided to raise the background levels to increase the perceived detail in the darker scenes. You can do this because as you go from foreground to background on these formats, objects are less distinct and clear. If the same practice was done for bluray, you would see far more detail going into the backgrounds than Mr. Coppola wants the viewer to see, hence the darker background on the bluray disc.

You can have Mr. Coppola approve both the Criterion LD and the Bluray release, and they both be different because each format offers different resolution abilities.

I am not talking about RESOLUTION...I am talking about COLOR, mr. insider. Or shall I call is COLOUR for the sake of being cool like Jean Luc Godard.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I am not talking about RESOLUTION...I am talking about COLOR, mr. insider. Or shall I call is COLOUR for the sake of being cool like Jean Luc Godard.

The great thing about the english langauge is that those who are proficient in it know how to be specific enough to ask the right question with the right words. It is obvious that you didn't use the right words, or you would have gotten the answer you desire.

Colour is used in Europe, not the United States. So if you REALLY want to be cool, be appropriate and a little less flippant, we are both adults here(or at least I can confirm I am). Save the snideness for Pixelthis

The color space of the LD and bluray is different. Bluray can capture a much wider gamut of colors than LD can. The master was different on the LD from the Bluray disc. So color wise they could still be a little different, and have the approval of Mr Coppola.

[PeruvianSkies]

The great thing about the english langauge is that those who are proficient in it know how to be specific enough to ask the right question with the right words. It is obvious that you didn't use the right words, or you would have gotten the answer you desire.

Colour is used in Europe, not the United States. So if you REALLY want to be cool, be appropriate and a little less flippant, we are both adults here(or at least I can confirm I am).

The color space of the LD and bluray is different. Bluray can capture a much wider gamut of colors than LD can. The master was different on the LD from the Bluray disc. So color wise they could still be a little different, and have the approval of Mr Coppola.

Enough to turn green to orange? Or orange to green? That's the disaster with the basic DVD as well as the Superbit DVD....I am curious to see if the Blu-ray has the correct colors..I trust that they do, but it's always nice to see for yourself.

[nightflier]

OK, first of all, I prefaced almost every one of my posts with respect to your tenure here - I certainly never insulted you. I also never said that I could compete with your statistics and figures. I mean for someone who has such a close, cozy relationship with industry insiders, I would have to be sleeping someone to know more - no thanks and more power to you.

What is striking though, and I've also looked at your long-winded prosaic posts, is that you always have to be right. I don't think there is a single one in all those 1900+ posts, where you admit to be wrong. I almost think that your inability to admit to even the possibility that there might be just a slight flaw in your world-view, would bring the whole house of cards down. There's a term in psychology for such rigidity, and I think where I've struck a nerve is in questioning its stability. After all, what I'm questioning is the validity of all this official or insider information. If that is questioned, then there is nothing left for you to stand on.

You obviously don't like the current administration and the direction of the war in Iraq, but aren't they just as exemplary of this type of rigidity? Question just one official statistic, event or factoid, and it could bring down everything - it's the domino theory all over again - it got us real far in Vietnam. The problem with this approach is that it makes for a whole lot of information to control. You almost have to establish a dictatorship. Such systems abhor anything outside of a dogmatic black-white / good-evil world view. Orwellian.

Now regarding the BR & HD-DVD format war, I believe and I maintain with confidence that:

1. The stats could be ever so slightly off
2. It doesn't take much variance to swing the pendulum in the format war

The first point is just a nature of statistics - there are political (yes, even in this industry), economic, mathematical, and procedural reasons for this. This should not be up for debate. If it is, then we have nothing more to talk about because you would be arguing against all of academia. The second point is perhaps where we'll have to agree to disagree. I think there are enough examples in the history of economics to suggest that it really doesn't take more than a tiny percentage to shift things, especially when it's made into a PR mantra by one side.

Well let's see how that plays out...


The books and links you posted deal with statistics and their reliability, but do not focus on what is happening right now and today.

Actually, the books do extrapolate to today. You may want to pick one of them up check out what is being said. It is quite riveting.


This dogged focus on the only thing that is for sure in this war is designed to keep you from interjecting every irrelevant point you can conjure up and muddle up the discussion. Your dogged focus on believing nothing you have no access or knowledge on, keeps you bottled up in your own dogma.

So basically you are reducing every one of my examples and links to "muddle." I've been trying to show that the "official" info isn't the whole picture. For that I have to look outside of the "official" info, don't I? But you dismiss it because it's outside of the "official" story. Well if you only wish to see what is "official" then how is that not tunnel vision? How is that the whole picture?

So lemme get this straight, cause it's a biggy. You establish the boundaries of what we can include, the stuff that only you seem to know well, and then you dismiss everything outside of it. So anything anyone else brings up is outside of those boundaries and thus "muddle." You are essentially pre-screening the topics for "relevance." That sounds more like a presidential press conference to me than anything else. Look, you can go on jabbing at me and getting hot under the collar, but you have to be able to consider what is outside of your boundaries. If you don't, then there can't be a meaningful discussion about this topic, or any topic.

You obviously have some seniority here, and a reputation for thoroughness, maybe even respect. Then show us that you can be magnanimous, that you do have that reputation for a good reason. As it is right now, you're not. And the more you get upset, the more you show of your true colors. " 'Left white & blue somewhere way back and but a tiny red loin cloth to cover up the privates" (forgot what movie that's from, but it does seem to apply here).


I have been reading quite a few of your disagreements with other since I have been back to this forum. Your arguements tend to be unfocused, and replete with topics unrelated to the subject being discussed. You think that if you just throw things out there, something will get traction, and often times it does not.

Really, you mean the discussion about the effect that the movie SuperSize Me has had on the fast food industry? Yes, I noticed you poked your head in there, and what of it? In that discussion I'm having pretty much the same discussion as I'm having here. I'm arguing agains someone who has dismissed everything I've presented as examples (outside of their boundaries - sound familiar?). Maybe it's because I'm arguing the obvious - that the movie had an impact. Anyhow, that's another topic.

Or are you referring to the many discussions about, guess what, this format war? I've disagreed with a few people, Wooch, Pixel, etc., but I must say, that despite the disagreements over BR / HD-DVD, they have been far more respectful and have actually taken the time to read what I've posted. These forums are here to discuss topics. Dismissing everything someone presents without reading them is the opposite of what we are here for. People want to read what others have to say - stifling decent is draconian and counter-productive. You may have seniority here, but that does not give you the right to dictate what is relevant to a discussion.


You seemed to have all the answers as to how I come to a conclusion, but the problem is you really don't. Sales figures is just one part of the picture. Once again studio support, manufacturing support, and infrastucture support all played a roll in how I look at this arguement. That is hardly a pin point specific perspective, it looks rather broad to me.

Yes, but they are still "official" sources and thus represent an interest. Moreover they are statistics and are inherently unreliable to some degree, however small. They do not represent a complete picture - one that nobody, not even you with all your connections - can rely 100% on. While you can say that your sources are from many different areas within the industry, doesn't that weaken their reliability as well? After all, it increases the potential for variability within the "official" pool so that even that is not reliable.


I am not Pixel am I?

You said specifically: no one. Pixel is someone.


Just because my perspective is different from yours doesn't mean it is seeing through tunnels.

Well if my perspective is outside of your boundaries, and yours is inside, and we're talking about a tunnel, then I fail to see your logic.


I know more about this industry than you ever will. You don't work in it, and how it operates completely escapes you.

That does sound Pompous to me. Hey, your words. I'm not claiming to know more than everyone else.


Anyone building an argument based on unknowns doesn't have an arguement. You have built your entire argument on unknowns.

Obviously you don't know a lick about logic. My argument is that the unknowns may be more significant than the knowns. Yes, it may be uncomfortable for you, but you'll have to face it eventually.


Its a stupid wager.

If it's such a stupid wager, what's the fear in a commitment? I'm willing to admit that I was wrong. I guess you just can't do that. Wonder why? Shaky foundation?


There is little or no comparison of this war to the SACD and DVD-A war. That kind of comparison is for people who do not have the capacity to think critically. If you dig below the surface, the wars could not be more different. You have had plenty of time to make this arguement stick, yet you have failed.

If I failed, why are we still here? There are comparisons to be made, I've made them. I admit that my info is not as "official" as yours, but again, let's wait and see what the media says about this if BR & HD-DVD are relegated to niche markets. I'm not saying that it will happen that way, I'm only saying if it will. I can wait. Can you?


The only comparison that could be made is that both wars confused the consumer, and guess what, wars do that to people. Look at the Iraq war now.

No they don't. Wars are based in black and white, right and wrong, good and evil. You can't get your soldiers to fight or the public to go along with such senseless slaughter otherwise. Confusion is what ends wars. You really should pick up a history book sometime instead of those "official" sources.


I know this is difficult for you, but you need to admit that you know not nearly enough information about the movie industry as it relates to downloads and internet capacity.

Not hard at all. I've admitted that I don't have your insight in just about everyone of my posts. And about the internet and its capacity, I wouldn't be so sure about how little I may or may not know. I certainly know enough not to be so absolute as you. Maybe you're sill upset about that Netscape stock you owned?


Your arguements have been weak, and current events show that the picture you are trying to paint is false. VOD has been around a lot longer than both HD DVD and BR, and the market right now is no bigger. As I have stated earlier, both Comcast and Warner have already stated that in 2006 VOD has already flattened out and has essentially become stagnant. That is not the case for either bluray or HD DVD who market is still growing and progressing steadily but slowly.

If you are so "confident" instead of "pompous" then why the fear of a little wager? Put up or shut up.


Argue away, I am just going to turn your points into swiss cheese, they are that flimsy and uninformed.

Well, yes after all, when it comes to determining what we're going to talk about, you are the decider...

[PeruvianSkies]

OK, first of all, I prefaced almost every one of my posts with respect to your tenure here - I certainly never insulted you. I also never said that I could compete with your statistics and figures. I mean for someone who has such a close, cozy relationship with industry insiders, I would have to be sleeping someone to know more - no thanks and more power to you.

What is striking though, and I've also looked at your long-winded prosaic posts, is that you always have to be right. I don't think there is a single one in all those 1900+ posts, where you admit to be wrong. I almost think that your inability to admit to even the possibility that there might be just a slight flaw in your world-view, would bring the whole house of cards down. There's a term in psychology for such rigidity, and I think where I've struck a nerve is in questioning its stability. After all, what I'm questioning is the validity of all this official or insider information. If that is questioned, then there is nothing left for you to stand on.

You obviously don't like the current administration and the direction of the war in Iraq, but aren't they just as exemplary of this type of rigidity? Question just one official statistic, event or factoid, and it could bring down everything - it's the domino theory all over again - it got us real far in Vietnam. The problem with this approach is that it makes for a whole lot of information to control. You almost have to establish a dictatorship. Such systems abhor anything outside of a dogmatic black-white / good-evil world view. Orwellian.

Now regarding the BR & HD-DVD format war, I believe and I maintain with confidence that:

1. The stats could be ever so slightly off
2. It doesn't take much variance to swing the pendulum in the format war

The first point is just a nature of statistics - there are political (yes, even in this industry), economic, mathematical, and procedural reasons for this. This should not be up for debate. If it is, then we have nothing more to talk about because you would be arguing against all of academia. The second point is perhaps where we'll have to agree to disagree. I think there are enough examples in the history of economics to suggest that it really doesn't take more than a tiny percentage to shift things, especially when it's made into a PR mantra by one side.

Well let's see how that plays out...



Actually, the books do extrapolate to today. You may want to pick one of them up check out what is being said. It is quite riveting.



So basically you are reducing every one of my examples and links to "muddle." I've been trying to show that the "official" info isn't the whole picture. For that I have to look outside of the "official" info, don't I? But you dismiss it because it's outside of the "official" story. Well if you only wish to see what is "official" then how is that not tunnel vision? How is that the whole picture?

So lemme get this straight, cause it's a biggy. You establish the boundaries of what we can include, the stuff that only you seem to know well, and then you dismiss everything outside of it. So anything anyone else brings up is outside of those boundaries and thus "muddle." You are essentially pre-screening the topics for "relevance." That sounds more like a presidential press conference to me than anything else. Look, you can go on jabbing at me and getting hot under the collar, but you have to be able to consider what is outside of your boundaries. If you don't, then there can't be a meaningful discussion about this topic, or any topic.

You obviously have some seniority here, and a reputation for thoroughness, maybe even respect. Then show us that you can be magnanimous, that you do have that reputation for a good reason. As it is right now, you're not. And the more you get upset, the more you show of your true colors. " 'Left white & blue somewhere way back and but a tiny red loin cloth to cover up the privates" (forgot what movie that's from, but it does seem to apply here).



Really, you mean the discussion about the effect that the movie SuperSize Me has had on the fast food industry? Yes, I noticed you poked your head in there, and what of it? In that discussion I'm having pretty much the same discussion as I'm having here. I'm arguing agains someone who has dismissed everything I've presented as examples (outside of their boundaries - sound familiar?). Maybe it's because I'm arguing the obvious - that the movie had an impact. Anyhow, that's another topic.

Or are you referring to the many discussions about, guess what, this format war? I've disagreed with a few people, Wooch, Pixel, etc., but I must say, that despite the disagreements over BR / HD-DVD, they have been far more respectful and have actually taken the time to read what I've posted. These forums are here to discuss topics. Dismissing everything someone presents without reading them is the opposite of what we are here for. People want to read what others have to say - stifling decent is draconian and counter-productive. You may have seniority here, but that does not give you the right to dictate what is relevant to a discussion.



Yes, but they are still "official" sources and thus represent an interest. Moreover they are statistics and are inherently unreliable to some degree, however small. They do not represent a complete picture - one that nobody, not even you with all your connections - can rely 100% on. While you can say that your sources are from many different areas within the industry, doesn't that weaken their reliability as well? After all, it increases the potential for variability within the "official" pool so that even that is not reliable.



You said specifically: no one. Pixel is someone.



Well if my perspective is outside of your boundaries, and yours is inside, and we're talking about a tunnel, then I fail to see your logic.



That does sound Pompous to me. Hey, your words. I'm not claiming to know more than everyone else.



Obviously you don't know a lick about logic. My argument is that the unknowns may be more significant than the knowns. Yes, it may be uncomfortable for you, but you'll have to face it eventually.



If it's such a stupid wager, what's the fear in a commitment? I'm willing to admit that I was wrong. I guess you just can't do that. Wonder why? Shaky foundation?



If I failed, why are we still here? There are comparisons to be made, I've made them. I admit that my info is not as "official" as yours, but again, let's wait and see what the media says about this if BR & HD-DVD are relegated to niche markets. I'm not saying that it will happen that way, I'm only saying if it will. I can wait. Can you?



No they don't. Wars are based in black and white, right and wrong, good and evil. You can't get your soldiers to fight or the public to go along with such senseless slaughter otherwise. Confusion is what ends wars. You really should pick up a history book sometime instead of those "official" sources.



Not hard at all. I've admitted that I don't have your insight in just about everyone of my posts. And about the internet and its capacity, I wouldn't be so sure about how little I may or may not know. I certainly know enough not to be so absolute as you. Maybe you're sill upset about that Netscape stock you owned?



If you are so "confident" instead of "pompous" then why the fear of a little wager? Put up or shut up.



Well, yes after all, when it comes to determining what we're going to talk about, you are the decider...

Wow. I knew there was a reason I didn't like those insiders! Looks like we now have 2 people currently posting away on this site that refuse to acknowledge any chinks in their armor.

[L.J.]

Wow. I knew there was a reason I didn't like those insiders! Looks like we now have 2 people currently posting away on this site that refuse to acknowledge any chinks in their armor.

Dude, why don't you stop hatin'.

[PeruvianSkies]

Dude, why don't you stop hatin'. Why don't you stop telling me what to do?

[L.J.]

Why don't you stop telling me what to do?

Interesting that you start your stupid PS vs PX catfight thread to try and call out PX when you do the same thing. Troll Killer? Please.

[PeruvianSkies]

Interesting that you start your stupid PS vs PX catfight thread to try and call out PX when you do the same thing. Troll Killer? Please.

What the F is your deal? Go whine about your rep points some more and leave me alone with your petty garbage.

[L.J.]

What the F is your deal? Go whine about your rep points some more and leave me alone with your petty garbage.

What, your the only one who can jump in a thread. Rep points? Ok Lex, got me there. The only thing petty around here is you, my friend.

[PeruvianSkies]

What, your the only one who can jump in a thread. Rep points? Ok Lex, got me there. The only thing petty around here is you, my friend.

You are welcome to hijack this thread all you want, just don't go b!tchin' about it or about those who do. I was staying on topic and I disagree with what SirTtT is saying...just because I disagree doesn't mean that he is wrong or right, it's just my opinion. I don't like people who can't admit when they are wrong simple as that. If you have a problem with me, start a thread about it...and bring your pack of wild dogs too!

[L.J.]

You are welcome to hijack this thread all you want, just don't go b!tchin' about it or about those who do. I was staying on topic and I disagree with what SirTtT is saying...just because I disagree doesn't mean that he is wrong or right, it's just my opinion. I don't like people who can't admit when they are wrong simple as that. If you have a problem with me, start a thread about it...and bring your pack of wild dogs too!

I'm not too concerned about this thread or jacking it. I don't need to start a "vs" thread. I got better things to do than try and bring attention to myself like some people. You know, those that put "vs" threads in the news/rumor forum so everyone can be sure to see. We do have a off topic forum you know.

I don't have a problem with you, I just simply don't like you. You run your fat mouth too much, you cry and complain too much. Maybe you should try shuttin' up for a bit and stop hatin'.

Wild dogs? Please, your still kidding yourself. As much as you would love it, I'm sure everyone has something better to do than worry about you.

[Smokey]

The thing is, the 2 mb in the US is plenty.


2 mb is probably alright for most internet activities, but most likely not for downloading. I have 1.5 dsl and takes three hours to download contents equal to a CD (700 mb). Now if I want to down load a movie size of DVD (4.5 gb), it will take about 20 hours :nonod:


The fact that you have such high speeds in Japan would make you think that downloading movies must be big there. Well, interestingly enough, the market for bluray disc is larger than the market for downloading movies in Japan, even with the higher internet speeds.

I agree with you. Downloading is not an attractive option when you can own it "physically" :16:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

OK, first of all, I prefaced almost every one of my posts with respect to your tenure here - I certainly never insulted you. I also never said that I could compete with your statistics and figures. I mean for someone who has such a close, cozy relationship with industry insiders, I would have to be sleeping someone to know more - no thanks and more power to you.

If I was a Doctor, I would know my business inside and out. If I was a business analyst, I would know whatever business I was analizing backward and forwards. I work in the film industry, and I know my industry very well. I have been a studio staff audio engineer, and a freelance re-recording mixer. I have calibrated professional theaters and studio dubbing stages all over hollywood. I have designed and installed screening rooms and high end hometheaters for alot of studio executives. After doing this some 25 years, you do build close cozy relationships with some well placed people from all of the studios. I see nothing bad about that, audioreview and my wallet over the years has benefitted greatly from my cozy relationships.


What is striking though, and I've also looked at your long-winded prosaic posts, is that you always have to be right. I don't think there is a single one in all those 1900+ posts, where you admit to be wrong. I almost think that your inability to admit to even the possibility that there might be just a slight flaw in your world-view, would bring the whole house of cards down. There's a term in psychology for such rigidity, and I think where I've struck a nerve is in questioning its stability. After all, what I'm questioning is the validity of all this official or insider information. If that is questioned, then there is nothing left for you to stand on.

You are only making this statement because in this thread, you have been consistantly wrong. Considering the fact your posts have been just as long as mine..kettle meet black, black meet kettle.

Have you read all 1907 of my posts? Then how in the name of the holy one can you make such an unintelligent statement? Read them all, then make that kind of statement if you can.

If I do not know what I am talking about, I do not enter into a debate with somebody who does, or at all. That has been my practice every since I joined audioreview 11 years ago. Perhaps you should follow this advice so you won't be left making statement regarding my character to which you know nothing about. You wouldn't have to take a false high road just to leave the impression that you are in fact correct when you are not. You hit no nerve, so far you have only hit air. You can question my inside information all you like, and you have had ample oportunity to do so. Since you have nothing to question it with(like some information of your own) you are standing in sinking sand. Your problem is that you are questioning me with your gut, and that thing is only full of food, not information relevant to this topic.



You obviously don't like the current administration and the direction of the war in Iraq, but aren't they just as exemplary of this type of rigidity? Question just one official statistic, event or factoid, and it could bring down everything - it's the domino theory all over again - it got us real far in Vietnam. The problem with this approach is that it makes for a whole lot of information to control. You almost have to establish a dictatorship. Such systems abhor anything outside of a dogmatic black-white / good-evil world view. Orwellian.

There is more than two pages of you and I going back and forth. You have had more than enough oportunity to challenge my stats and figures concerning bluray and HD DVD. You have presented nothing, not a damn thing that refutes anything I have stated. The figures are out there to challenge, yet you have not one quantifiable peice of fact that rebutes, disputes, or even slightly weaken anything I have said.

As you can see I have no problem controlling the information I have, and I also have no problem using that information to support what I say. Where is the information you have to rebut mine????


Now regarding the BR & HD-DVD format war, I believe and I maintain with confidence that:

1. The stats could be ever so slightly off
2. It doesn't take much variance to swing the pendulum in the format war

You can't just state it, you have to PROVE it. So where is your evidence. links, links to direct quotes, anything, Bueller?


The first point is just a nature of statistics - there are political (yes, even in this industry), economic, mathematical, and procedural reasons for this. This should not be up for debate. If it is, then we have nothing more to talk about because you would be arguing against all of academia. The second point is perhaps where we'll have to agree to disagree. I think there are enough examples in the history of economics to suggest that it really doesn't take more than a tiny percentage to shift things, especially when it's made into a PR mantra by one side.

Unlike yourself, I operate under the presumption that stats and figures are correct until proven not. You work the other way around which leaves the burden of proof right in your lap. Just because you don't like the stats and figures, or do not have access to them, doesn't give you the right to outright dismiss them. These same facts and figures that you choose to ignore to support your point are paid for, and used by thousands of companies all over the world. So it is up to you to go directly to Neilsons, and tell them their sales figures they offer to the studios and manufacturers all over the world are incorrect, because nightflyer says they are based on a political, economic, mathmatical and procedural basis. Go to the studios and manufacturer all over the world and tell them that nightflyer says the information they purchased from Neilsons is incorrect because nightflyer says so. I would be profoundly interested in what they tell you.



Actually, the books do extrapolate to today. You may want to pick one of them up check out what is being said. It is quite riveting.

It will only be as riveting as it applies specifically to this arguement. Since it does not, I have other material I would rather read. I really do not have the time to read material that re-inforces you obvious paranoia, or your doubts about any and all information. When you can prove its applicability to this particular subject, then it becomes a compelling read to me. Otherwise, it is more crap thrown against the wall.




So basically you are reducing every one of my examples and links to "muddle." I've been trying to show that the "official" info isn't the whole picture. For that I have to look outside of the "official" info, don't I? But you dismiss it because it's outside of the "official" story. Well if you only wish to see what is "official" then how is that not tunnel vision? How is that the whole picture?

Not one of your links are applicable to this particular arguement. Not one address this particular issue. You have not been able to prove how they are applicable to this subject, and you have not presented a single opposing bit of information that directly challenges anything I have stated. That is why it is muddle, because there is no proof that what you have advanced in this arguement is applicable to this arguement. When you can show me that what you have stated trumps what I have stated ON THIS ISSUE, then you have my attention. Until then, you gut, your theories, and your links are just mud in a clear lake.




So lemme get this straight, cause it's a biggy. You establish the boundaries of what we can include, the stuff that only you seem to know well, and then you dismiss everything outside of it.

Actually no. The established boundaries are the topic at hand, HD DVD and Bluray sales figures and stats. Anything that is not relevant to this topic is outside the bounds of this discussion. This includes your links to an unrelated issue, to an unrelated industry, and unsubstantiated claims you make.




So anything anyone else brings up is outside of those boundaries and thus "muddle." You are essentially pre-screening the topics for "relevance." That sounds more like a presidential press conference to me than anything else. Look, you can go on jabbing at me and getting hot under the collar, but you have to be able to consider what is outside of your boundaries. If you don't, then there can't be a meaningful discussion about this topic, or any topic.

I cannot PRE-screen anything looking for relevance. I cannot do it because I cannot read your mind. What I can do is look at what you presented as evidence to support your theories, and it is clear that what was presented is completely unrelated. I never saw any link directing its attention to HD DVD or Bluray sales figures. If there is, and I missed it, please show me.

So you understand this clearly. You do not know when I am hot under the collar. You don't know me personally, and it is impossible to see me over the internet. So once again, before you make any statement regarding anyone state of mind, make sure you can support that claim with SOME evidence. Is that so hard?


You obviously have some seniority here, and a reputation for thoroughness, maybe even respect. Then show us that you can be magnanimous, that you do have that reputation for a good reason. As it is right now, you're not.

What does seniority buy me here?? This I am curious to know. So what you are now advancing is that I come to your side of thinking, that makes me magnanimous. Just tell you that you are right(inspite of the fact you offered no evidence applicable to this arguement) and that shows that I am rational. Not no, but hell no man. That would be beyond stupid considering how you have argued your point. Had you had even a shred of support for your arguement, you probably could have swayed me if the information was valid and correct. But you have not, so I am not compelled to acquiesce your request.



And the more you get upset, the more you show of your true colors. " 'Left white & blue somewhere way back and but a tiny red loin cloth to cover up the privates" (forgot what movie that's from, but it does seem to apply here).

You would like for me to be upset, but those who know me here know that I don't get upset in online debates. This is first entertainment, and second a way to exchange information, and thirdly a way to educate people about the movie business. Beside I can just tell you that my true color is brown. I was a ligher shade at birth, but too many on location shoots has left me a little tanned. As far as the tiny red loin cloth, well I would rather have nothing since neither suggestion would cover much.




Really, you mean the discussion about the effect that the movie SuperSize Me has had on the fast food industry? Yes, I noticed you poked your head in there, and what of it? In that discussion I'm having pretty much the same discussion as I'm having here. I'm arguing agains someone who has dismissed everything I've presented as examples (outside of their boundaries - sound familiar?). Maybe it's because I'm arguing the obvious - that the movie had an impact. Anyhow, that's another topic.

Actually you debated better in that arguement by far than you have done here. I least you remained on topic, which is something you have completely failed to do here. At least you provided some credible support for your arguements in that subject, something you have failed to do here as well. Actually so you do not have to continually repeat your own lies, it is "outside the boundaries of the topic" not outside my boundaries. Big difference


Or are you referring to the many discussions about, guess what, this format war? I've disagreed with a few people, Wooch, Pixel, etc., but I must say, that despite the disagreements over BR / HD-DVD, they have been far more respectful and have actually taken the time to read what I've posted.

Oh I read what you posted, that is how I know that it wasn't relevant.




These forums are here to discuss topics. Dismissing everything someone presents without reading them is the opposite of what we are here for.

Making crap up off the top of your head, and attempting to apply it where it cannot be is also not why we are here. Presenting valid and relevant facts that support an arguement is why we are here. You haven't done that at all period. When it is not relevant, its dismissed because it is not relevant. Please do not tell this lie again, I did read you post, that is why I know they are outside the bounds of HD DVD and Bluray. You know they are too so let's not act like you are talking to a fool okay.



People want to read what others have to say - stifling decent is draconian and counter-productive. You may have seniority here, but that does not give you the right to dictate what is relevant to a discussion.

Did I tell you that you cannot post? Am I a moderator? Do I control your actions on this board? No to all questions, so just how in the heck am I stifling dissent. This is obviously a massive case of passive/agressive. Relevance is dictated on how the information conforms to the topic of HD DVD and Bluray. Presenting a book on conspiracy theories regarding stats and figure manipulation is far outside of the HD DVD and Bluray arguement. Ray Charles and Stevie Wonder can see that. I am not stopping you from doing anything, put it out there so I can shoot a hole in it.




Yes, but they are still "official" sources and thus represent an interest. Moreover they are statistics and are inherently unreliable to some degree, however small. They do not represent a complete picture - one that nobody, not even you with all your connections - can rely 100% on.

Sorry nightflyer, but Neilson has built their business on amassing numbers and stats, and guess what, many a company pays for it. Has any company paid you for the figures and stats you amassed? No, and for a good reason, you have none. No business can grow without market trends, sales figures and data. The fact DO create a complete picture. It is complete within the bounds that it is presented. If a mega billion dollar industry can rely on the figures they amass, then it really doesn't mean a whole lot that you don't trust them. What would you use to find trends in your business, your gut? See how far that get's you.




While you can say that your sources are from many different areas within the industry, doesn't that weaken their reliability as well? After all, it increases the potential for variability within the "official" pool so that even that is not reliable.

Different sources provide different facts. Not all of my sources are used for just one thing. They span the gamut of the industry. If all of my sources agree, then a trend exists. So where are your sources that invalidate mine?? I am waiting.......




You said specifically: no one. Pixel is someone.

He's not me thought right?




Well if my perspective is outside of your boundaries, and yours is inside, and we're talking about a tunnel, then I fail to see your logic.

Your perspective is outside the boundaries of the topic, not my boundaries. Since mine are inside, then their relevancy cannot be disputed. If you cannot understand that logic, then logic completely escapes you.




That does sound Pompous to me. Hey, your words. I'm not claiming to know more than everyone else.

You cannot make that claim, because you don't. I do know my industry, and there is nothing pompous about that. Its why I have been pretty sucessful at what I do, because I know what I am doing within the industry I work.




Obviously you don't know a lick about logic. My argument is that the unknowns may be more significant than the knowns. Yes, it may be uncomfortable for you, but you'll have to face it eventually.

You can't build an arguement on unknowns because they're unknown. Only a person with no arguement works off of unknowns. Unknowns do not shape a industry, only knowns do. Do you think a business makes a business decision based on unknowns? I know of none that do. What is uncomfortable to me is having someone try and tell me what I already know well, when they don't know much about anything to do with the industry I work in. I wouldn't begin to debate you on what you do for a living, I wouldn't know what I was talking about, just like in this case you don't.




If it's such a stupid wager, what's the fear in a commitment? I'm willing to admit that I was wrong. I guess you just can't do that. Wonder why? Shaky foundation?

You are making an assumption of fear. How about I have better things to bet on that are less stupid and a waste of time.




If I failed, why are we still here? There are comparisons to be made, I've made them. I admit that my info is not as "official" as yours, but again, let's wait and see what the media says about this if BR & HD-DVD are relegated to niche markets. I'm not saying that it will happen that way, I'm only saying if it will. I can wait. Can you?

You are going to wait to see what the media says, and you chide me for using "official" sources. Okay, I am done with your contradictory perspective. The media is the last place for accurate information, I would rather go to the data collectors before the media. They at least have the obligation to check and re-check their information. The media has no such constraints.

Your last paragraph is a prime example of your lack of focus on this whole subject. You distrust the people that gather the information, but trust the people that report it. How stupid is that? It is contradictory, and doesn't make a damn bit of sense. Your whole perspective on this has been rather schizophrenic and weird, do you want to try this again?


No they don't. Wars are based in black and white, right and wrong, good and evil. You can't get your soldiers to fight or the public to go along with such senseless slaughter otherwise. Confusion is what ends wars. You really should pick up a history book sometime instead of those "official" sources.

You think the Iraq war is black and white? Why did we go in there in the first place? If you come up with just one answer, you are already contridicting your President. He so far has had three different reason and three different times as to why we went there. That is not so black and white.

Consfusion is a byproduct of war. Look at what the Iraq war has done to this country. We are completely confused as to why we went there in the first place, and why we are still there as well.




Not hard at all. I've admitted that I don't have your insight in just about everyone of my posts. And about the internet and its capacity, I wouldn't be so sure about how little I may or may not know. I certainly know enough not to be so absolute as you. Maybe you're sill upset about that Netscape stock you owned?

Never owned Netscape, but have plenty of Google, Yahoo, and oil stocks right now though. More of you not knowing what you are talking about.

If you are admitting you don't have my insight, then why are you still trying to argue me down. Obviously you are not equipt to do so, so why not just bow out with your face still intact?




If you are so "confident" instead of "pompous" then why the fear of a little wager? Put up or shut up.

Your wager is as stupid as your evidence you have presented in this thread. I do not throw good money after stupid causes, it takes away from me purchasing bluray's for my enjoyment. If you don't have the insight that I have, why don't you just shut up?




Well, yes after all, when it comes to determining what we're going to talk about, you are the decider...

Well, in this case Mr Peabody decided what we are going to talk about. He chose the subject matter, a subject that you have no background in, no way to interpret anything, and no point of reference to guide your opinions. He set the scope of the topic, HD DVD and Bluray, of which you have a terrible time staying on. When we are discussing conspiracy theories, then what you have presented may have some traction. Within the contexted of this particular subject, you do not.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

You are welcome to hijack this thread all you want, just don't go b!tchin' about it or about those who do. I was staying on topic and I disagree with what SirTtT is saying...just because I disagree doesn't mean that he is wrong or right, it's just my opinion. I don't like people who can't admit when they are wrong simple as that. If you have a problem with me, start a thread about it...and bring your pack of wild dogs too!

Actually you didn't disagree with anything I said, you just called me pompous, and that is just name calling, not disagreement. Now if your opinion is that I am pompous, then yes, you were stating your opinion. However that would make you a thread hyjacker and off topic.

When I am wrong, I admit I am wrong. When I am right, don't expect me to admit that I am wrong, that wouldn't make any sense whatsoever. I have supported everything that I have said with open, and verifiable facts and figures. The only way to prove me wrong is to produce evidence that my facts and figures are incorrect. So far that has not been done.

[pixelthis]

Interesting that you start your stupid PS vs PX catfight thread to try and call out PX when you do the same thing. Troll Killer? Please.

THANK YOU!!!:thumbsup:

[pixelthis]

The comment about hiding the special effects by lowering the light was interesting.
I have always been fascinated by how the flaws in a moivie stick out on higher resolution
devices.
"Start trek is now basically guys running around the galaxy in spandex long johns.
And it wasn't until the special edition of Wizard of Oz that I noticed the clear plastic bubble around glenda's head.
Eventually moviemakers will have to bite the bullet and "clean up" special effects if they don't want their stuff laughed at, such the "redone" starwars" .
And classic DR who also does the same thing. The ark in space has two editions, one with digital effects and the classic version for purists.
And this shows what a visionary RIDLEY SCOTT was (and is).
Both Blade runner and Alien hold up well in high def:1:

[PeruvianSkies]

I'm not too concerned about this thread or jacking it. I don't need to start a "vs" thread. I got better things to do than try and bring attention to myself like some people. You know, those that put "vs" threads in the news/rumor forum so everyone can be sure to see. We do have a off topic forum you know.

I don't have a problem with you, I just simply don't like you. You run your fat mouth too much, you cry and complain too much. Maybe you should try shuttin' up for a bit and stop hatin'.

Wild dogs? Please, your still kidding yourself. As much as you would love it, I'm sure everyone has something better to do than worry about you.

Whatever you say Pix#2.

[L.J.]

Whatever you say Pix#2.

Ssssshhhhhhhh!!!! There there, it'll be alright :out:

[nightflier]

I work in the film industry, and I know my industry very well....After doing this some 25 years, you do build close cozy relationships with some well placed people from all of the studios. I see nothing bad about that, audioreview and my wallet over the years has benefitted greatly from my cozy relationships.

What is wrong with that is two-fold:

1. You have an interest. It's sort of like a speaker evaluator for Sound & Vision who has an interest in not insulting the speaker manufacturer because the manufacturer could without the product for evaluation. Your access is predicated on being partial.

2. The picture you paint from your inside sources does not consider factors in other related industries. Things such as chip manufacturing, politics in Myanmar, and what Alan Greenspan publishes in his new book all can have an impact on this industry.


You are only making this statement because in this thread, you have been consistantly wrong.

If I am discussing things outside of your area of expertise, how can you be so sure they are wrong? Or are you an expert at everything?


Considering the fact your posts have been just as long as mine..kettle meet black, black meet kettle.

Actually, that's because responding to you takes that much. If you look at any of the Sir.T-free threads that I contribute to, you'll notice they are shorter, more cordial, and dare I say, funny. This thread is one long miserable debate about getting you to look outside of your petty little world.


Have you read all 1907 of my posts? Then how in the name of the holy one can you make such an unintelligent statement? Read them all, then make that kind of statement if you can.

Find me one thread, just one, where you admit to being wrong. I can't read all your threads, but I did a quick search through most of them for the word "wrong" and aside from all the times you tell others that they are wrong, I haven't found anything. If you can find one, I will admit that I was wrong for making the statement. Put up or shut up.


You hit no nerve, so far you have only hit air.

Well it certainly got your panties in a bunch, from reading the posts.


There is more than two pages of you and I going back and forth. You have had more than enough oportunity to challenge my stats and figures concerning bluray and HD DVD. You have presented nothing, not a damn thing that refutes anything I have stated. The figures are out there to challenge, yet you have not one quantifiable peice of fact that rebutes, disputes, or even slightly weaken anything I have said.

I thought I was doing just that. Maybe you're forgetting how to read? I'll repeat it again: stats are inherently incomplete - they are estimates. You keep harping on how I don't refute your figures, but if I say they are not accurate, how is that not addressing your point? Oh, I see, you need me to say by how much they are inaccurate, right? Well that would just be another stat, inherently questionable too, and you'd probably relish in pointing that out, I'm sure. This discussion would never end. Look, however disturbing it is for you to think outside of your mathematical sandbox, this format war, economics, society, nature and everything else in the universe cannot be completely defined with stats. They are estimates.


Where is the information you have to rebut mine????

It's in the books I listed, that you conveniently dismiss as irrelevant to this argument. If I could just get you to read one book (because apparently you are so busy shimmying up to your industry buddies), then it would be How to Lie with Statistics. I think they even made that into a "For Dummies" book with plenty of cartoons - you should be able to read that, at least.


You can't just state it, you have to PROVE it. So where is your evidence. links, links to direct quotes, anything, Bueller?

Hey, I'd rather be Ferris any day than the teacher. As a matter of fact, you remind me of him. Will you be doing Vizine commercials next? The evidence is outside of the official insider info, are you sure you want to hear it? OK, I'll try again: stats are estimates. Did you survive the shock? OK, let's try this one then: stats are skewed to the interest of the person collecting them. Still standing? OK, maybe you can handle this one: the unknowns outside of the observed population can invalidate the results. I know that last one is a shocker - I knew you wouldn't have the stomach for it, although you really could have tossed your cookies to the side instead of all owver yourself. Hey, but at least you can tell your insider friends that you were schooled in Stats 101 by none other than Ferris Bueller. Wana "Save Ferris" T-shirt?


Unlike yourself, I operate under the presumption that stats and figures are correct until proven not.

Spoken like a true black and white egghead. The math may be perfect, but you seem to forget the most basic tenet of statistics: they are estimates.


You work the other way around which leaves the burden of proof right in your lap. Just because you don't like the stats and figures, or do not have access to them, doesn't give you the right to outright dismiss them.

I didn't dismiss them. I left them standing right where you left them. They're still there. I even said that I can't argue against them - or let me be more specific - I can't argue against the math. What I said is that I don't accept them as the whole picture - I'm pretty sure I said that multiple times. The fact is you cannot say that they are, it's mathematically illogical. You also cannot account for outside factors.


Now let's be clear: I said that because they have a degree of error, because they are collected by entities with vested interests, and because of the uncertainty of outside factors, they are not the complete picture of what is happening with this format war.

These are not conspiracy theories, muddle, or unknowns. They are facts (I know how you like facts). If you want, I can rephrase that in reference to the BR / HDDVD format war:

Because your insider industry information has a degree of error (check you freshman math classes), because they are collected by parties with vested interests (the industry insiders and apparently, your wallet), and because of the uncertainty of outside factors (VOD, manufacturing shortages, politics, economics, etc.), the statistics you have presented on BR and HDDVD do not represent the complete picture.



These same facts and figures that you choose to ignore to support your point are paid for, and used by thousands of companies all over the world.

Yes, they are paid for. That is one of my points right?


So it is up to you to go directly to Neilsons, and tell them their sales figures they offer to the studios and manufacturers all over the world are incorrect, because nightflyer says they are based on a political, economic, mathmatical and procedural basis.

Apparently they know it. The fine print on everything they publish states quite plainly that their conclusions are "estimates." It is you and other yahoos cheering on their chosen format who make them more than they are. Face it, you have a vested interest in making that 2-1 margin larger. Are you really that angry at Toshiba, or just a little hot under the collar?


It will only be as riveting as it applies specifically to this arguement.

It pertains to statistics. Isn't that what we are talking about? Sales figures, rental figures, etc. Or are you referring to the super "inside" information that only your ears are privy to, and us lesser peons can only hope to understand from your vaulted pedantry?


Since it does not, I have other material I would rather read.

Yeah, we know, your precious stats.


I really do not have the time to read material that re-inforces you obvious paranoia, or your doubts about any and all information. When you can prove its applicability to this particular subject, then it becomes a compelling read to me. Otherwise, it is more crap thrown against the wall.

My appologies your highness. I am sorry to have troubled your precious mind with statistics. Are you sure you're not related to our president? 'Cause you two sure have a disdain for anything outside of your own realities. It may be genetic. Are your parents like that too? Hmmm that would explain a lot.


Not one of your links are applicable to this particular arguement. Not one address this particular issue. You have not been able to prove how they are applicable to this subject, and you have not presented a single opposing bit of information that directly challenges anything I have stated.

Well how would you know since you have not had the time in your busy shmoozing schedule to read them? Oh, you perused them? Well then I will presume that we can continue the discussion. So let's see if I can tie this all together for you so that it addresses the BR/HDVD format war to your satisfaction: If statistics are estimates, and your whole argument that BR is winning the war is based on them, then your conclusion is also an estimate. It is not the complete picture. The complete picture is that we don't know who will win, we don't know if either will win, and we don't know what else will win. I'm hedging my best on VOD, but I'm not going to say it's a definite.


That is why it is muddle, because there is no proof that what you have advanced in this arguement is applicable to this arguement.

Sounds a little doublespeak-ish to me, but I'll see if I can address that. I'm sorry to disappoint you, but there will be no new numbers, stats, or figures forthcoming from me. So if your whole strategy was to refute them, you should probably rethink your plan of attack. My argument is that your numbers are questionable.


When you can show me that what you have stated trumps what I have stated ON THIS ISSUE, then you have my attention.

I never set out to trump your figures. I clearly stated that. I am merely questioning their complete validity. If that doesn't grab your attention, then what will?


Actually no. The established boundaries are the topic at hand, HD DVD and Bluray sales figures and stats. Anything that is not relevant to this topic is outside the bounds of this discussion. This includes your links to an unrelated issue, to an unrelated industry, and unsubstantiated claims you make.

No Mr. Peabody specifically asked for new and other info related to a statistic of 67% in favor of BR sales. News and info does not have to be just statistics. If a large shipment of BR players from China was to sink in the pacific, that would also be relevant. You're the one who just wants to talk about specific statistics (and your insider info).


I cannot PRE-screen anything looking for relevance. I cannot do it because I cannot read your mind.

I think you misunderstand "pre-screen." What I was trying to say is that you establish before hand what can be considered relevant and then build your argument within only those parameters that you approve of. Anything that anyone brings up that does not fit your boundaries is dismissed outright as irrelevant. How exactly is that not narrow?


What I can do is look at what you presented as evidence to support your theories, and it is clear that what was presented is completely unrelated. I never saw any link directing its attention to HD DVD or Bluray sales figures. If there is, and I missed it, please show me.

Your argument is about statistics. I questioned statistics. I didn't dismiss them like you do, I just suggested that they were not the complete picture. So questioning statistics, when you present statistics is irrelevant? Boy, you sure know how to narrow a topic down to your own needs. Of course, the narrower you get, the less of the whole picture we get to see.


So you understand this clearly. You do not know when I am hot under the collar. You don't know me personally, and it is impossible to see me over the internet. So once again, before you make any statement regarding anyone state of mind, make sure you can support that claim with SOME evidence. Is that so hard?

"...This is fluff and blather. WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE THAT MAKES THIS APPLICABLE TO THIS DISCUSSION!!!!!" and "You have presented ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that..." and "Actually it IS the point!!!"

I'm sorry, is that calm and composed? Boy, I hope I don't have to read what happens when you do get upset. I also don't think I need to "see" (huh?) you over the internet to get the idea that you are getting out of control. Well if this is normal, then I must have misread your state of mind.


What does seniority buy me here?? This I am curious to know.

Well now that I think of it, it certainly doesn't buy you respect. And what's with this need to always buy something? Is this something that is for sale here on AR? With your deep pockets that gives you an unfair advantage, doesn't it?


So what you are now advancing is that I come to your side of thinking, that makes me magnanimous. Just tell you that you are right (inspite of the fact you offered no evidence applicable to this arguement) and that shows that I am rational.

Never said anything of the sort, you're twisting my words around to mold them to your argument. Hell no to that, man. I didn't ask you to say that I'm right. Even if I asked you to say that you were wrong about the format war (and I'm not doing that either), that wouldn't necessarily imply that I was right (simple logic, man, just follow along). I asked you to broaden your horizons to the possibility that there is something beyond your statistics. If you would just see outside of your created reality, you'd see that there's a whole world of interesting alternatives out here: VOD could eclipse both, HDDVD could win, neither would replace DVD, the format war could go on for years, the possibilities are endless, really.


Had you had even a shred of support for your arguement, you probably could have swayed me...

Since to the best of my knowledge no one has ever been able to prove the great almighty Sir T. wrong, I seriously doubt that.


You would like for me to be upset, but those who know me here know that I don't get upset in online debates.

Well, you seemed pretty upset before. Did you take your pills, now? Can we proceed?


This is first entertainment, and second a way to exchange information, and thirdly a way to educate people about the movie business.

There you go again dictating the boundaries. What you think this forum is, isn't what other may think it is. It is not entertainment before everything else. I'd like to think that that would be secondary or even lower on the list. I know that the newbies who come here looking for help (before you make them feel infinitesimally small), see the entertainment value quite a bit further down the list. No wonder you have no respect for other people's opinions, this is just entertainment to you. Talk about a god-complex.


Beside I can just tell you that my true color is brown. I was a ligher shade at birth, but too many on location shoots has left me a little tanned. As far as the tiny red loin cloth, well I would rather have nothing since neither suggestion would cover much.


Huh? I was talking about the colors red, white and blue and what they stand for. You obviously don't know much about allegory or symbolism either. And nobody wants to see you naked, man. Keep those pics off the AR gallery.


Actually you debated better in that arguement by far than you have done here. I least you remained on topic, which is something you have completely failed to do here. At least you provided some credible support for your arguements in that subject, something you have failed to do here as well.

Well thank you for the compliments, I didn't think you had it in you. But I think that when you come to see the world outside of your own boundaries, you'll see that I was pretty accurate here too.


Actually so you do not have to continually repeat your own lies, it is "outside the boundaries of the topic" not outside my boundaries. Big difference

Hey, buddy, I'm repeating your inconsistencies, because you don't seem to read them. You're the one who narrows Mr. Peabody's request for news and info to just statistics, and then only those statistics from your "inside" sources. You are the one who narrowed the boundaries.


Presenting valid and relevant facts that support an arguement is why we are here. You haven't done that at all period. When it is not relevant, its dismissed because it is not relevant. Please do not tell this lie again, I did read you post, that is why I know they are outside the bounds of HD DVD and Bluray. You know they are too so let's not act like you are talking to a fool okay.

I never said that any of the links and books I presented where specifically about BR & HDDVD. I said they are about statistics. And since your whole argument is about the supposed irrefutable completeness of statistics, I think that makes them pretty relevant. The fact is, and this is probably why you are so upset, that the questioning of statistics shakes up your whole world view. If statistics are questioned you have nothing solid to stand on and that is a very uncomfortable position for you to be in. It's uncertain, inexact, and ambiguous. Well welcome to the universe, man.


Did I tell you that you cannot post? Am I a moderator? Do I control your actions on this board? No to all questions, so just how in the heck am I stifling dissent.

You dismiss everything outside of your precious statistics as irrelevant. That is stifling dissent. You say it has no place on this thread. That is stifling dissent. You won't even discuss it. That is stifling dissent. If my evidence is not good enough for your lofty boundaries, how can I present my case? You are stifling dissent.

Just FYI, that is a position of intellectual weakness. That's from another author you've probably never heard of: Hana Arendt. She's pretty big, though, look it up.


This is obviously a massive case of passive/agressive.

Oh, so now you want to talk psychology? You're way out of your league, here. Statistics are pretty shaky in the field of psychology. I'd run back to your own sandbox before someone gives you a sand wedgie.


Presenting a book on conspiracy theories...

I presented no conspiracy theory books. I assure you the books I presented are well researched by academics, journalists, doctors, etc. And they are reviewed by peers. Anyhow, how would you know? You haven't read them.


stats and figure manipulation is far outside of the HD DVD and Bluray arguement.

You're really gona stand by that? Weren't you saying that you base your whole argument on statistics? Or are you gona do a quick reversal and tell us it's also from your "inside" sources, the ones that we can't corroborate? Well which is it?


Sorry nightflyer, but Neilson has built their business on amassing numbers and stats, and guess what, many a company pays for it.

No need to apologize, I'm not wrong. The very fact that you put "Neilsen" and "business" in the same breath is troubling, don't you think? It's bought and paid for, I think we've established that.


Has any company paid you for the figures and stats you amassed? No, and for a good reason, you have none.

Actually you know nothing about what I've written and published. But no, you're right, I have never been paid for any of it, if that's your only criteria (and it shouldn't be).


If a mega billion dollar industry can rely on the figures they amass, then it really doesn't mean a whole lot that you don't trust them.

Are you hearing what you are saying? You are telling me that these figures with billions at stake are from the very industry that stands to benefit, right? How does that not give you the willies that this is perhaps not accurate? It means a whole lot that I don't trust them and you shouldn't either, at least not completely and unequivocally as you apparently do.


What would you use to find trends in your business, your gut? See how far that gets you.

I've managed my own business for some time, so again, don't presume you know that much about me. I can tell you that statistics are useful, sure, but almost never representative of the whole picture. People shouldn't be lemmings to "official" information - it's what gets us into wars, makes us believe that Fox is news, that there will be plenty of oil forever, that China will always provide us with cheap low & mid-fi, and that BR has won this format war.


Different sources provide different facts. Not all of my sources are used for just one thing. They span the gamut of the industry. If all of my sources agree, then a trend exists. So where are your sources that invalidate mine?

I never set out to completely dismiss your sources. I only said they were not complete. And the broader your sources, the more chance for variance - it's just mathematical probability. You seem bent on the idea that I want to invalidate everything you present. So who's paranoid, now? I'm not out to get you. Frankly I could care a flying flaming fairy fart less about you, your insider information, and your seniority on AR. You are completely irrelevant to my point about statistics. You just want to carry the torch for such a narrow focussed argument that you think it makes the whole case. It doesn't. Get over yourself.


He's not me thought right?

Let me quote you verbatim. You said: "No one has proclaimed a winner here. NO ONE." Except that Pixel did. And to be frank, your own flag waiving is pretty transparent too.


Your perspective is outside the boundaries of the topic, not my boundaries. Since mine are inside, then their relevancy cannot be disputed. If you cannot understand that logic, then logic completely escapes you.

Do you hear yourself saying this? I mean, it's almost comical.


I do know my industry, and there is nothing pompous about that. Its why I have been pretty sucessful at what I do, because I know what I am doing within the industry I work.

That's just the problem. You're within the industry.


You can't build an arguement on unknowns because they're unknown. Only a person with no arguement works off of unknowns. Unknowns do not shape a industry, only knowns do. Do you think a business makes a business decision based on unknowns? I know of none that do.

I'm not building my argument on just unknowns (you should really get yourself some glasses and read what I actually wrote). I said that the unknowns may be significant, perhaps overwhelming. I also said that statistics were inherently questionable and that you have an interest. Since you're obviously making a hansome profit from your pontification, I hardly think that is up for debate.


What is uncomfortable to me is having someone try and tell me what I already know well, when they don't know much about anything to do with the industry I work in. I wouldn't begin to debate you on what you do for a living, I wouldn't know what I was talking about, just like in this case you don't.

Well it's good for you I'm not a debate coach. Or am I? Wait a minute, weren't you trying to tell me a thing or two about computers? Downloads? The internet? Maybe I invented the Internet? You don't know. That's an unknown that may just be relevant here, heck it could even be overwhelmingly more important than the knowns. Don't even try to throw sand in my sandbox - you will get hurt.

What is uncomfortable to me is someone who is so rigidly stuck on their own facts, won't admit that they may be wrong, and wants to stifle all dissent. We've met your types before throughout history and it's never been a pleasant outcome. Did you fail history in school too?


You are making an assumption of fear. How about I have better things to bet on that are less stupid and a waste of time.

It's not like there's any of your precious money on the line. We're only wagering on who will admit to being wrong. You threw down the gauntlet, I picked it up. What? Is that too far outside of your boundaries?


You are going to wait to see what the media says, and you chide me for using "official" sources. Okay, I am done with your contradictory perspective. The media is the last place for accurate information, I would rather go to the data collectors before the media. They at least have the obligation to check and re-check their information. The media has no such constraints.

Well, what media would you consider within your boundaries? A/V mags? Newspapers? Books? White papers? The Wall Street Journal? What are you willing to exclude to arrive at your desired conclusions? Sounds to me like you are obsessed with defining the boundaries of this argument. Personally, I would feel more comfortable with sources from a broader perspective, you know, to get the whole picture. Oh, that's right you don't want the whole picture. Just your own narrow sandbox will do.


Your last paragraph is a prime example of your lack of focus on this whole subject. You distrust the people that gather the information, but trust the people that report it. How stupid is that? It is contradictory, and doesn't make a damn bit of sense. Your whole perspective on this has been rather schizophrenic and weird, do you want to try this again?

I will consider all reasonable sources, and I think Mr. Peabody and most others here will too. Even if it's on a blog, it will have relevance if viewed in the context of the whole picture. If the scope is too narrow, then it is inevitable that something just slightly larger will supplant it. But that's where you want to define it. It's moronic, I know, but I can't seem to make that clear enough.


You think the Iraq war is black and white? Why did we go in there in the first place? If you come up with just one answer, you are already contridicting your President. He so far has had three different reason and three different times as to why we went there. That is not so black and white.[[QUOTE]

You really can't read can you? I said that people think about war in black and white. It's what gets them to go along with it. The complexity of this war, the history, the culture, the languages, the politics are infinitely more complex and gray. And what you are desperately trying to address is just the hard numbers, the black and white, if you will, without taking into account that the real issue is the people's attitudes in choosing one format over an other, the vagaries of the technology, and the market trends that shape this war, the vague, the unknowns, and the gray.

Now I think I'm beginning to undertsand why you are coming off so myopic about this format war. You see war (Iraq or format) as confusing and complex so you want to slap some numbers on it to make sense of it. You have a type-A obsession to define, reduce, categorize, enumerate, compartmentalize, and quantify it. Well, the reality is that your quest is a fantasy. No amount of statistical analysis is going to get you the answers you want - it can never be the whole picture with just mathematical parameters.

[QUOTE=Sir Terrence the Terrible]Consfusion is a byproduct of war. Look at what the Iraq war has done to this country. We are completely confused as to why we went there in the first place, and why we are still there as well.

I'm not confused. Most people aren't confused. They know it's to make a few people richer. They may not want to admit it, but it's pretty simple really. What the "official" sources would have you believe is that we should be thoroughly confused about it. This is why Limbaugh, O'Reily and the lot are spreading FUD. The simple people cannot possibly undertstand the complexities, so just let us politicians, billionaires, and paid pundits worry about it. Hmmm, kind of like people claiming that we here can't possibly be ready to hear the "insider" information, so it's up to a few select and privileged "individuals" to disseminate it for us, the simpletons, the hoi polloi.


Never owned Netscape

That was a joke, duh.


...but have plenty of Google, Yahoo, and oil stocks right now though.

Oil stocks? Interesting. I suppose in act 2, you're going to convince us that alternate fuels are irrelevant too.


If you are admitting you don't have my insight, then why are you still trying to argue me down. Obviously you are not equipt to do so, so why not just bow out with your face still intact?

I'm not after you. I could care less about you. What I care about is this over-reliance on "official" sources. I'm not saying they are irrelevant, I'm saying there's more to the story. I've pointed that out in more ways than one. And frankly, you've refused to address any of those. My face is fine, thank you, but yours seems to have some egg on it.


Your wager is as stupid as your evidence you have presented in this thread.

Then why not back up what you're claiming? Or are you afraid that it will prove to be the first time ever that you will have to admit to being wrong? Either put up or shut up.


I do not throw good money after stupid causes, it takes away from me purchasing bluray's for my enjoyment.

Here you go again with the money. Don't your industry buddies pay you enough to stop worrying about it? For the umptieth time, there's no money involved in this wager. Either put up or shut up. Or as my grandfather used to say, either sh*t or get off the pot.


If you don't have the insight that I have, why don't you just shut up?

So let me get this straight. Because I don't have access to your "inside" sources, I need to shut up? Then everyone here should just shut up, right? Maybe if all of AR were filled with your 1900+ posts only, the world would be a better place? Now how would that be useful? It would be narrow, to be sure, it would make you happy, I'm sure too, but how would that be of any use to those who do not see this forum as just "entertainment"?


Well, in this case Mr Peabody decided what we are going to talk about. He chose the subject matter, a subject that you have no background in, no way to interpret anything, and no point of reference to guide your opinions. He set the scope of the topic, HD DVD and Bluray, of which you have a terrible time staying on.

No I have a hard time staying on the topic that you have defined and narrowed down from what Mr. Peabody requested. That's a bit different from your undertsanding of where we got started.


When we are discussing conspiracy theories, then what you have presented may have some traction. Within the contexted of this particular subject, you do not.

I presented no conspiracy theories. I presented well researched and peer-reviewed books. Oh, I'm sorry is that beyond the scope of where you want to keep it? Who made you the decider? Oh, I know, you decided that yourself. Are you absolutely sure you're not related to Bush? Maybe just dipping your nose into the snuff box too much?

Well that was a non-productive way for me to spend the late morning. You can bring a mule to water...

All kidding aside, you need to be willing to talk about the facts I have presented:

- Statistics are estimates
- Statistics are biased towards the entity collecting the data
- Statistics do not address the unknowns

We can argue forever, and I won't shy away from it, but if you can't look beyond what you have defined as the parameters of this discussion, then I really have nothing to discuss with you. My simple point is that statistics and inside information do not present a complete picture. I believe that is why Mr. Peabody started this thread. Does 67% in favor of Blu-Ray make this a format war a done deal? My answer is that it doesn't.

[PeruvianSkies]

Man, this one is fierce. It takes 20-minutes just to wade through all of the back-and-forth retorts. I do see valid points from both sides, but I am with Nightflier on this issue. SirTTT reminds me of those writers from WidescreenReview who at one point were calling DVD a 'perfect' medium and their reviews gave 5/5's for picture or sound and were often times too favorable, which only makes sense...they are not going to trash DVD's when they are being supplied with them by vendors. They were very biased in their reviews and their version of 'reference' quality was always limited. Now comes Blu-ray...with superior picture and sound, so what does that mean for DVD? Well, now those ratings are skewed. How can you rate something on a sliding scale? In 5-10 years there will be something superior to Blu-ray or maybe Blu-ray will still be around, but it will have evolved into a superior format than where it is now. What is the point of reference? The 35mm film? From what I have seen of Blu-ray it definitely has a stunning resolution in picture, but does not have the color fidelity of true film, nor does it has the saturation. Same goes for HD-DVD.

When I mentioned the LD for BRAM STOKER's DRACULA it was simply the best reference piece to bring up for the new BR disc. Why? Not for a resolution comparison, but for the color. I am sure that the BR disc is far superior in terms of resolution, but I do wonder how the Video Black and Video Red look on that disc....this film has been plagued by issues in those areas on just about every format. I saw this film twice in the movie theater and it was incredibly dark to begin with, but the red was still vibrant and stunning and again....there were issues on the DVD that somehow turned things that were meant to be green to an orange color and vise versa. The Criterion Laserdisc was the best way to see this film at home (until the new BR disc arrives/arrived).

[PeruvianSkies]

http://www.hometheaterspot.com/fusionbb/showtopic.php?tid/138718/

[Mr Peabody]

Right after your first post on the Dracula movie, Sir T posted "I agree", referring to the assumption that many made, the movie was a poor transfer from DSD. If he was really involved with Blu-ray.com, Terrence, being what he is, would have jumped at the chance to set things straight right then, and took another opportunity to boast about his supposed affiliation with the biz. But he didn't, because he really had no idea, so he Googled around, and then posted a few lines from the article that apparently didn't get highlighted when I copied it. Then put on his pose to try to save face. If it hasn't been deleted, his stumble is right on this thread. I for one have always doubted Sir T's claims to be in the biz. I believe he is a very insecure person who feels he has to build himself up in order to be accepted and try to be the big fish in a small pond. I have to give him credit I've never seen anyone twist peoples statements around to try to make them say something that was not originally intended. He missed his calling, he should be in politics.

[PeruvianSkies]

Right after your first post on the Dracula movie, Sir T posted "I agree", referring to the assumption that many made, the movie was a poor transfer from DSD. If he was really involved with Blu-ray.com, Terrence, being what he is, would have jumped at the chance to set things straight right then, and took another opportunity to boast about his supposed affiliation with the biz. But he didn't, because he really had no idea, so he Googled around, and then posted a few lines from the article that apparently didn't get highlighted when I copied it. Then put on his pose to try to save face. If it hasn't been deleted, his stumble is right on this thread. I for one have always doubted Sir T's claims to be in the biz. I believe he is a very insecure person who feels he has to build himself up in order to be accepted and try to be the big fish in a small pond. I have to give him credit I've never seen anyone twist peoples statements around to try to make them say something that was not originally intended. He missed his calling, he should be in politics.

I spoke with my friend recently who watched the Blu-ray Disc and also went back and took out his Criterion Ed. Laser of BRAM STOKER'S DRACULA. I also asked him about the documentary on the Blu-ray as it features clips from the film as well. My friend also saw the film when it was released theatrically in 1992 and also has seen, but does not own the Superbit DVD from Columbia Tristar. Our conversation basically talked about color depth, accuracy, detail, and of course the black levels, Video Red, and overall fidelity of the picture. We briefly discussed the sound too. Here is a snapshot of our conversation...

His first impression of the Blu-ray was....ehhh. He actually took the Blu-ray around to a few shops in his area and played them on some high-end projection systems as well as a 50" DLP, Plasma, and a 42" LCD for a true comparison. He said that projected the film actually looked more film-like in quality, while the LCD/Plasma/DLP showed off the resolution a bit more. Color fidelity seemed more accurate and he said it was more like the Laserdisc in nature. Although comparing overall resolution is invalid here. He also commented on just how dark the Blu-ray looks overall. Contrast seems to be the bigger issue as he said that theatrically the film was able to show detail and depth, but also remain dark and that seemed to be the case across the board on all playbacks. I can easily see why too, I mean film is still the winner when it comes to being able to show a films true contrast and formats like DVD and Blu-ray have limitations still. Video Red he said was better, but still veered towards a more orang-ish nature, again this seemed to be true across all playbacks. Now this still might be an approval directors edition of the film, but he said theatrically the film definitely was a true deep red, I also agree...the film was RED RED RED. Skin-tones were definitely more orange in the film and the Blu-ray does seem to get that right, If you notice on the screen captures that I posted and the link to that website you can see how they are more rich in nature and fidelity. This is how I remember the film being in the theater and also on the LD.

We briefly talked about the sound, I remember playing the Superbit a few years ago and being unimpressed. First, the surrounds never seemed that engaging and I remember having to really turn the film up to get a huge soundstage out of it. He commented that the sound on the Blu-ray regains much of the character of the film and the musical score really shines. He described the audio track as being good, but not a reference disc by any stretch of the imagination.

[PeruvianSkies]

First image is the Laserdisc, then the DVD, then the Blu-ray. I know how to use GOOGLE too!!!!

[PeruvianSkies]

Check out some of these images....

[PeruvianSkies]

I don't know if SirTtT works for Blu-ray.com or not, I could really care less, if he does...he does and if not, well then he rips stuff from their forum them. Whatever the case on this whole BRAM STOKER's DRACULA Blu-ray the bottom line is this: majority of fans and people that have seen it are not impressed and whether or not it's approved means very little if it's causing this much of a big deal. Obviously something is out-of-whack. Either a lot of people and fans are wrong and their memory of this film is bogus and they never really saw the film the way it should be or this new Approved Transfer is junk.

[projection]

Ok, this is my first post and I was hesitant to post on this site after reading this thread because it would seem that everything that I said would be picked apart by the vultures here. Maybe i'll hang around for a bit and see before I post much.

[PeruvianSkies]

Ok, this is my first post and I was hesitant to post on this site after reading this thread because it would seem that everything that I said would be picked apart by the vultures here. Maybe i'll hang around for a bit and see before I post much.

Well, unfortunately this thread has got a little out of hand, but most of the time you will see that most of us get along fairly well around here. I am guilty of being a feeder to the trolls around here, if you haven't met Pixelthis yet, I am sure you will soon enough.

Hope you stick around!

[PeruvianSkies]

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[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

What is wrong with that is two-fold:

1. You have an interest. It's sort of like a speaker evaluator for Sound & Vision who has an interest in not insulting the speaker manufacturer because the manufacturer could without the product for evaluation. Your access is predicated on being partial.

2. The picture you paint from your inside sources does not consider factors in other related industries. Things such as chip manufacturing, politics in Myanmar, and what Alan Greenspan publishes in his new book all can have an impact on this industry.

Nice try on this one. I do not have an interest or investments in HD DVD or BDA stock. I just have two players, one HD DVD and one PS3. Just like alot of people do. I do not review HD equipment, do not review movies anymore, and do not accept money from either HD DVD PG or the BDA. So your comparison falls short on some many levels its not funny. Do you want to try again?




If I am discussing things outside of your area of expertise, how can you be so sure they are wrong? Or are you an expert at everything?

You are talking about something completely unrelated to HD DVD and Bluray, and the post is about HD DVD and BR. Your information makes no mention of either, which makes it off topic and non relevant. You have not been able to directly tie up your point to HD DVD or Bluray, so what you purport as relevant is not UNLESS it mentions HD DVD or Bluray. Simple logic.



Actually, that's because responding to you takes that much. If you look at any of the Sir.T-free threads that I contribute to, you'll notice they are shorter, more cordial, and dare I say, funny. This thread is one long miserable debate about getting you to look outside of your petty little world.

Why would I look beyond HD DVD and Bluray(my little world) when the topic is about HD DVD and Bluray?? At least someone thinks your posts are funny.....


Find me one thread, just one, where you admit to being wrong. I can't read all your threads, but I did a quick search through most of them for the word "wrong" and aside from all the times you tell others that they are wrong, I haven't found anything. If you can find one, I will admit that I was wrong for making the statement. Put up or shut up.

You are the one that made the accusation that I believe that I am always right, now you have to prove that statement. It is ass backwards to accuse me of something, and then prove your statement, that's your job, something that you have continued to fail at time and time again. You made the accusation, now you prove it. If you can't then you need to shut up about that point and move on. If I do not know about the topic enough to effectively debate it, I won't respond. If I do know about it, don't expect me to admit I am wrong unless you prove that I am wrong. So far you haven't, so you need to move off this point. You are wasting my time, and the sites bandwidth




Well it certainly got your panties in a bunch, from reading the posts.

You would like to believe you have some impact on me, but you don't. In fact, you have been quite a bore because you have put nothing out there to support your beliefs. Not one damn piece of anything. No you find yourself just focusing on me, and people usually do that online when they have nothing to stand on. Don't have any evidence to support what you say, then just attack the other party personally. If all you have is to attack me personally, then we should take this to PM




I thought I was doing just that. Maybe you're forgetting how to read? I'll repeat it again: stats are inherently incomplete - they are estimates.

Sales figures are not, they are done deals.


You keep harping on how I don't refute your figures, but if I say they are not accurate, how is that not addressing your point?

You have not PROVED my figures are inaccurate, you are just making a claim. You have not directly challenged the figures with figures of your own from a credible source that refutes mine. You cannot call a crook a crook until you prove that he or she created a crime. Just saying they're inaccurate with no proof doesn't mean you addressed the issue. Can't you understand that??




They are estimates[/U].

Sales figures are not just stats. Sales figures can be made into stat's, but that doesn't invalidate them, especially because you say so.

So I am going to give you another chance to prove what you state.

Bluray is outsold HD DVD 61-39% based on sales figures accumulated by Video Business and NDP for last week only. Do you disagree with this? Can you offer up anything that states the NDP's and VB figures are not correct? Do you have sales figures from another source that disputes this?

Year to date Bluray is outselling HD DVD 67-33% based on monthly sales figures compiled from retailers over the last 10 months. Also from NDP and Video Business, Do you contest this figure as well? Can you offer up anything that states that NDP sales figures for HD DVD and Bluray have been incorrect for the year to date? Do you have sales figures from another source that refutes this?

In the last couple of months NDP and Video Business has reported that Bluray standalone players have been outselling HD DVD standalones 55-45%. Do you dispute NDP or VB findings, and have evidence that NDP and VB are incorrect?

Since inception, Bluray is outselling HD DVD 60-40% as reported my Video Business and NDP, do you have any other source that refutes or counters these figures?

Do you have any evidence that Video Business and NDP sales figures on Bluray and HD DVD players and software are incorrect? Evidence from another sources that refutes these figures?

Now you cannot say that they are incorrect because you say so, or because of some academic reason. You need to directly challenge what I have stated with physical proof(links to other sources, charts and data) so that every here understands why you state they are incorrect.


It's in the books I listed, that you conveniently dismiss as irrelevant to this argument. If I could just get you to read one book (because apparently you are so busy shimmying up to your industry buddies), then it would be How to Lie with Statistics. I think they even made that into a "For Dummies" book with plenty of cartoons - you should be able to read that, at least.

The book does not state that HD DVD and Bluray sales figures are incorrect. It doesn't say that recent sales figures of bluray and HD DVD standalones have been incorrectly reported does it?

Personal insults do not prove your point. It just proves that you have no point, so you attack the person. I challenge you to stay on topic and stop trying to make this about me, and what you think of me. I don't care what you think about me, but I do care that you stay on topic. Can you do that?


Hey, I'd rather be Ferris any day than the teacher. As a matter of fact, you remind me of him. Will you be doing Vizine commercials next? The evidence is outside of the official insider info, are you sure you want to hear it? OK, I'll try again: stats are estimates.

What I'll be doing next is none of you business and not apart of this topic. Sales figures are not estimates. Sales either happen, or they don't. Retailers need sales figures so they can manage their business. You cannot manage a retail business based on estimates when you have expenses based on realities.



Did you survive the shock? OK, let's try this one then: stats are skewed to the interest of the person collecting them. Still standing?

NDP has no interest in Sales figures for HD DVD and Bluray, they just collect the data, and sell it to interested parties. The parties skew the data in their own interest. So let's break this down for those who have difficulty with reading comprehension.

NDP--->Sony, Disney, Fox, Paramount, Universal etc.---->data manipulation. NDP has no interest in skewing data, the studios and manufacturers do. I get my sales data from NDP directly, and compare what they have to other sources to make sure they agree. Since they have agreed, I have no reason in the world to believe they are inaccurate.





OK, maybe you can handle this one: the unknowns outside of the observed population can invalidate the results.

There is no outside of the observed population. You come into a store, or go online and buy a disc. This is registered as a sale and reported to data collectors weekly. You have to buy a disc whether online or in store for a sale to register, so there are no unknowns outside the observed population. Either your a customer, or you are not. Please do not attempt to make this more difficult than it really is so you can "appear" smart. Nobody is fooled, and your not that smart.


I know that last one is a shocker - I knew you wouldn't have the stomach for it, although you really could have tossed your cookies to the side instead of all owver yourself. Hey, but at least you can tell your insider friends that you were schooled in Stats 101 by none other than Ferris Bueller. Wana "Save Ferris" T-shirt?

You are no Ferris Bueller, he is just a character in a movie. Unless you are just a character in a movie. The rest of this is child like banter, and if you are a adult, there should be no room for this kind of banter in a debate. Save that stuff for you buddy Pixelthis. You guys seem to enjoy playing in the sandbox together.



Spoken like a true black and white egghead. The math may be perfect, but you seem to forget the most basic tenet of statistics: they are estimates.

Since when is a sale an estimate? Either it happens, or it doesn't right? Oh, in your world they say "I think they bought a disc" after they plunk down the money and walk away with the disc.

Another personal insult, Nighflier, you are pretty bankrupt. I guess if I said to you that you have no class, you would think there is no school today.




I didn't dismiss them. I left them standing right where you left them. They're still there. I even said that I can't argue against them - or let me be more specific - I can't argue against the math. What I said is that I don't accept them as the whole picture - I'm pretty sure I said that multiple times. The fact is you cannot say that they are, it's mathematically illogical. You also cannot account for outside factors.

You are making this more difficult than it is, and people usually do that when they don't know what they are talking about.

You go into a store and purchase a bluray player. That is one sale of a bluray player. That one sale is registered along with others from different stores, and at the end of the week it is reported to NDP as a sale for that week. Thousands do this weekly which turns into a monthly sales report. Its that easy. This is a closed loop system, so there are no outside factor to contaminate a sale, unless the computer system is hacked. Since I have heard of no hacks(and neither have you apparently) then there are no outside factor to include here. Its the same with software sales. The whole picture is the accumulation of all sales figures from all retailers within the reporting system for that month. Its nothing more than this, and any attempt to make it more than this just muddles the facts.



Now let's be clear: I said that because they have a degree of error, because they are collected by entities with vested interests, and because of the uncertainty of outside factors, they are not the complete picture of what is happening with this format war.

I guess I should not assume that you learn from your mistakes. First mistake(and I have stated this before) In this case the people that collect the data are not vested interests. The BDA and the HD DVD PG are vested interests, not NDP, and not Video Business. NDP collect data on behalf of many different industries inclusing broadcast and movies, electronics, and the beat goes on. This why I have said to you that you don't understand the system, and that is why you tend to complicate things(I am giving you the benefit of the doubt here). Since sales figures are all I quoted(not stats as you advance consistantly), there is no degree of uncertainty. Its either a sale, or its not. People are either buying players and software(which would be a sale) or they are not(which puts them outside the sales loop).




These are not conspiracy theories, muddle, or unknowns. They are facts (I know how you like facts). If you want, I can rephrase that in reference to the BR / HDDVD format war:

Unless you can directly refute sales figures with facts, then it is just conpiracy theories, muddle and unknowns.


Because your insider industry information has a degree of error (check you freshman math classes), because they are collected by parties with vested interests (the industry insiders and apparently, your wallet), and because of the uncertainty of outside factors (VOD, manufacturing shortages, politics, economics, etc.), the statistics you have presented on BR and HDDVD do not represent the complete picture.

You just don't have a clue, and that is the problem. What does my wallet have to do with sales figures compiled by NDP? The studio don't collect data, NDP does.

What does a sale of a player or software have to do with VOD? Its a sale.
What does manufacturing shortages have to do with Sales? We are not talking about manufacturing on demand, we are talking about sales off of shelves. The product has already been manufactured!!!!!
What does politics have to do with sales of a player or disc?
How does economic play a role in a system where a person has already purchased a product?

This is what I mean by muddle. Nothing you mention has anything to do with sales of a product already manufactured and on shelves. It just mud in clean water.



Yes, they are paid for. That is one of my points right?

Do you really think a company is going to pay hundreds of dollars for inaccurate figures? No way in hell Nightflyer, you are just introducing FUD.




Apparently they know it. The fine print on everything they publish states quite plainly that their conclusions are "estimates." It is you and other yahoos cheering on their chosen format who make them more than they are. Face it, you have a vested interest in making that 2-1 margin larger. Are you really that angry at Toshiba, or just a little hot under the collar?

Do you subscribe to NDP? I do. I do not see that fine print anywhere. I am looking at my last weeks copy. It does not say their figures are estimates at all. Why are you lying like this???

Do I own Sony? Disney? Fox? No. So can you explain just what vested interest I have? Who said I am angry? I don't like the performance of their player, and the customer service stunk. Am I angry about that? Don't think so. I am neither angy at toshiba or hot under the collar. I am indifferent with Toshiba, just like I am with you. No anger involved. Do you want to try and guess my emotions again? Or are you tired of failing to guess correctly time and time again.




It pertains to statistics. Isn't that what we are talking about? Sales figures, rental figures, etc. Or are you referring to the super "inside" information that only your ears are privy to, and us lesser peons can only hope to understand from your vaulted pedantry?

Your envious, how quaint..... It doesn't pertain to THESE figures we are discussing, so it is therefore irrelevant.


Yeah, we know, your precious stats.

Apparently you don't.




My appologies your highness. I am sorry to have troubled your precious mind with statistics. Are you sure you're not related to our president? 'Cause you two sure have a disdain for anything outside of your own realities. It may be genetic. Are your parents like that too? Hmmm that would explain a lot.

Your apology is accepted. Well since our president is caucasion, and I am not, I doubt we are related. Are you related to a donkey?

It is very low to bring my parents into this. Very classless act amoung many. I hope you are happy now.



Well how would you know since you have not had the time in your busy shmoozing schedule to read them? Oh, you perused them? Well then I will presume that we can continue the discussion.

I think you already stated that the books have no relevance to this argument, and that they don't discuss HD DVD or bluray specifically. That is how I know.


So let's see if I can tie this all together for you so that it addresses the BR/HDVD format war to your satisfaction: If statistics are estimates, and your whole argument that BR is winning the war is based on them, then your conclusion is also an estimate. It is not the complete picture. The complete picture is that we don't know who will win, we don't know if either will win, and we don't know what else will win. I'm hedging my best on VOD, but I'm not going to say it's a definite.

Still wrong.

A sale is not an estimate, it is a fact. It already happened. You cannot estimate a sale, either it happened, or it didn't. If best buy reports they sold 10 players, they are not estimating, they are stating a point of fact. If one side is selling more players than the other side, then they are winning in sales. If there is a perceived war going on, and one side is doing better than the other, they are winning the war. I never stated that Bluray already won, I stated that they are winning, and winning consistantly on a weekly business since the beginning of the year. That is a fact, and not an estimate. I cannot predict the future, but I can look at infrastructure, support, sales figures year to date, history and various other things for the potential sign of victory. Analyst do it every day. VOD has never been a real competitor to disc based movies. It didn't even make a dent into the sales of DVD's, and it has been around for at least 5-7 years in my area. Where VOD has made SOME in roads is in rentals. But not HD rentals since VOD cannot compete in that area.




Sounds a little doublespeak-ish to me, but I'll see if I can address that. I'm sorry to disappoint you, but there will be no new numbers, stats, or figures forthcoming from me. So if your whole strategy was to refute them, you should probably rethink your plan of attack. My argument is that your numbers are questionable.

Prove it. If you can't, then give it a rest. Prove it, I challenge you to do so. If they are questionable, then prove that they are. Otherwise you are making a false claim, or just telling a lie.


I never set out to trump your figures. I clearly stated that. I am merely questioning their complete validity. If that doesn't grab your attention, then what will?

If you are questioning the validity of the numbers I present, then invalidate it with facts, not just your mouth and gut.


No Mr. Peabody specifically asked for new and other info related to a statistic of 67% in favor of BR sales. News and info does not have to be just statistics. If a large shipment of BR players from China was to sink in the pacific, that would also be relevant. You're the one who just wants to talk about specific statistics (and your insider info).

If a large shipment of BR player from China sank into the pacific, that would have no bearing whatsoever to a sale of a player already on the shelf. My insider information has nothing to do with sales figures for both formats. That is very public information. My insider information tells me about a studio's future plans regarding the HD formats, information not openly discussed on forums or in the media. Insider information is things like

Disc yield rates for both mediums
Technical information regarding upcoming releases that nobody knows about.
Firmware upgrades that haven't happened yet.
Technical background on bluray players in development
What chips will be used in future players
What future development will come out of the BDA
What studios are thinking about changing sides(I knew about Paramount a few days before the announcement was made public)
I know all the details of Paramounts contract with the HD DVD PG

That is insider information. Sales figures for each format are posted at Bluray.com every friday. That is not insider information. LOL





I think you misunderstand "pre-screen." What I was trying to say is that you establish before hand what can be considered relevant and then build your argument within only those parameters that you approve of. Anything that anyone brings up that does not fit your boundaries is dismissed outright as irrelevant. How exactly is that not narrow?

I didn't establish anything, the original poster did. He did it by mention the BDA, bluray outselling HD DVD, Acer joining the BDA, Hitachi introducing a new camcorder, and Paramounts defection not hurting bluray.

Those are the parimeters, not some book advancing the arguement that statistics can be used to deceive. I did see the OP mention that anywhere in his post, did you? He didn't even question the sales figures, he just stated them. I stayed within the boundaries of what the OP mentions in his first post, you have not.




Your argument is about statistics. I questioned statistics. I didn't dismiss them like you do, I just suggested that they were not the complete picture.

Did I dismiss statistics? Seems now you are contradicting yourself.


So questioning statistics, when you present statistics is irrelevant? Boy, you sure know how to narrow a topic down to your own needs. Of course, the narrower you get, the less of the whole picture we get to see.

I presented sales figures, not statistics. Funny how you cannot seemed to get the two straight.

Statistic:A statistic is a function of one or more random variables that does not depend upon any unknown parameter.

Does that sound like a sales figure to you?? A sales figure is just the opposite.

It is a known value(the product) with no variables(either it happens or it doesn't), and it has a known parameter(you paid for it already)



I'm sorry, is that calm and composed?

Its called emphasis, not anger. You do not have the power to anger me. I can let you, but you don't have it by proxy


Boy, I hope I don't have to read what happens when you do get upset. I also don't think I need to "see" (huh?) you over the internet to get the idea that you are getting out of control. Well if this is normal, then I must have misread your state of mind.

You cannot read when I get upset, you cannot read emotions. (rolls eyes)

And yes you do have to see me to know that I am getting out of control. If you don't see my actions and reactions, then you are only guessing that I am out of control. Since there is not reliability in a guess, most times you are wrong, as in this case. So yes, you did misread my state of mind. And as long as you don't know me personally, you will continue to misread my state of mind.



Well now that I think of it, it certainly doesn't buy you respect.

Nope


And what's with this need to always buy something?

We are discussing sales aren't we?


Is this something that is for sale here on AR? With your deep pockets that gives you an unfair advantage, doesn't it?

Don't you look on the opening page of this forum. There appears to be alot of things for sale on AR, especially advertising space.

Wow, who are you, the FBI. You can read emotions over the web, you can not know a person name, what he does for a living, and spontaneously guess that he has deep pockets. You should open a mind reading school. You'll make tons of nothing from that venture.


Never said anything of the sort, you're twisting my words around to mold them to your argument. Hell no to that, man. I didn't ask you to say that I'm right. Even if I asked you to say that you were wrong about the format war (and I'm not doing that either), that wouldn't necessarily imply that I was right (simple logic, man, just follow along). I asked you to broaden your horizons to the possibility that there is something beyond your statistics.[/quote]

Can you tell me just what is beyond a sale of a player? The sale of a disc? Not a damn thing. A sale is a closed loop transaction. It has a beginning and an end. You bring the player to the counter, pay your money, and walk out of the store. There is nothing beyond that.


If you would just see outside of your created reality, you'd see that there's a whole world of interesting alternatives out here: VOD could eclipse both, HDDVD could win, neither would replace DVD, the format war could go on for years, the possibilities are endless, really.

If I created my reality, you wouldn't be in it. VOD can eclispe both, but not in the two years that you are predicting. And then it may never. HD DVD could win, but nobody outside the HD DVD fanboy believes that it will. The format war will not go on for years, that I can guarantee. The studio will not allow it, and if this war continues, you are going to find that the studios will pick a side. They did with DIVX vs DVD. They did it with Beta vs VHS. The retailers are already picking a side. Target is only carrying Bluray players in its stores. Walmart is not carrying the $199 Ventura player in their stores. Blockbuster is only renting bluray's in their stores. Best buy has more bluray encaps in their stores, more bluray demo's in their stores, and the beat goes on.


Since to the best of my knowledge no one has ever been able to prove the great almighty Sir T. wrong, I seriously doubt that.

Then you must not have very good knowledge because Richard Greene used to prove me wrong all the time. Shows just how much you know.



There you go again dictating the boundaries. What you think this forum is, isn't what other may think it is. It is not entertainment before everything else. I'd like to think that that would be secondary or even lower on the list. I know that the newbies who come here looking for help (before you make them feel infinitesimally small), see the entertainment value quite a bit further down the list. No wonder you have no respect for other people's opinions, this is just entertainment to you. Talk about a god-complex.

And I thought your comments couldn't be anymore infantile. How can you translate what this site means to me into a god-complex. I am not a newbie, I am not on this website looking for information on how to put a hometheater together. This is entertainment to me, this is where I talk to, and exchange information with friends that I cannot see. You sitting in judgement of me is more god-complex than me calling this website entertainment.




Huh? I was talking about the colors red, white and blue and what they stand for. You obviously don't know much about allegory or symbolism either. And nobody wants to see you naked, man. Keep those pics off the AR gallery.

How cryptic of you. Allegory and symbolism have nothing to do with HD DVD or bluray. This is part of the problem communicating with you, too much allegory and symbolism, and not enough fact to support an opinion.

Who says you would see me naked? I sure didn't, and never made mention of putting anything in the AR gallery. Do you own this site? No, so you cannot tell me were to locate any pictures should I choose to submit any. Know your place, and your place is not leadership on this site.




Well thank you for the compliments, I didn't think you had it in you. But I think that when you come to see the world outside of your own boundaries, you'll see that I was pretty accurate here too.

How can you be accurate, you have presented nothing but FUD. You have provided nothing but your opinion, and I take that for what its worth, nothing. Facts are worth something, and you have presented none.




Hey, buddy, I'm repeating your inconsistencies, because you don't seem to read them. You're the one who narrows Mr. Peabody's request for news and info to just statistics, and then only those statistics from your "inside" sources. You are the one who narrowed the boundaries.

And you don't read your as well. He requested news and info on HD DVD and Bluray, not some book that talks about manipulating data. That is very clear in his first post. You bought all of the other garbarge into this thread, not me.




I never said that any of the links and books I presented where specifically about BR & HDDVD. I said they are about statistics. And since your whole argument is about the supposed irrefutable completeness of statistics, I think that makes them pretty relevant. The fact is, and this is probably why you are so upset, that the questioning of statistics shakes up your whole world view. If statistics are questioned you have nothing solid to stand on and that is a very uncomfortable position for you to be in. It's uncertain, inexact, and ambiguous. Well welcome to the universe, man.

If the book and links are not specifically about bluray and HD DVD, then they don't belong in this discussion. Mr Peabody is not questioning the sales figures, he stated them. I am not talking about statistics, I am speaking of sales figures as it relates to HD DVD and Bluray. You book doesn't not address the accuracy of current HD DVD and bluray player and software sales, and you have admitted it yourself. You have no figures to dispute what I have posted from public sources, no proof that those figures have been manipulated by NDP, and no proof that figure inconsistancy are even in play here. Yet with no evidence of any manipulation, you introduce manipulation as a counter to what I stated. What you are doing is a stretch without any evidence that any wrong doing is actually occuring. Just because you mention it, does not make it so.




You dismiss everything outside of your precious statistics as irrelevant. That is stifling dissent. You say it has no place on this thread. That is stifling dissent. You won't even discuss it. That is stifling dissent. If my evidence is not good enough for your lofty boundaries, how can I present my case? You are stifling dissent.

This is just silly. I am not stopping you from making your false claims. I have not jailed you for being off topic. I have not bound your hands so you cannot type. I am not saying your evidence is not good enough, I am saying it is not relevant until you can prove that the sales figures presented by NDP are tainting and inaccurate. When you can prove this, then your book becomes VERY relevant to this topic. Outside of the proof, the book has not relevance to this topic.

You cannot convict a robber until he steals. You certainly cannot convict him because you think he will steal because a book says he is a demographic that has been known to steal. You have to have evidence that he actually stole something.


Just FYI, that is a position of intellectual weakness. That's from another author you've probably never heard of: Hana Arendt. She's pretty big, though, look it up.

So you accusing me of intellectual weakness now. I can accuse you of intellectual bankrupcy as well. You have certainly shown that here.




Oh, so now you want to talk psychology? You're way out of your league, here. Statistics are pretty shaky in the field of psychology. I'd run back to your own sandbox before someone gives you a sand wedgie.

I gave up kid speak when I grew up. Can you let it go so we can have an adult conversation now. I have no desire to talk pshychology, that is not my field of expertise, and obviously not yours either.




I presented no conspiracy theory books. I assure you the books I presented are well researched by academics, journalists, doctors, etc. And they are reviewed by peers. Anyhow, how would you know? You haven't read them.

Unfortunately the research didn't include questioning sales figures of HD DVD and bluray from NDP. I have no interesting in reading them until you can effective tie the subject matter directly into this. Since the book is not about HD DVD and bluray sales figures as presented by NDP(and you admit it), then it is not applicable to this conversation in any way. You have not proven that NDP is reporting inaccurate figures, so the book has to practical application to this arguement.




You're really gona stand by that? Weren't you saying that you base your whole argument on statistics? Or are you gona do a quick reversal and tell us it's also from your "inside" sources, the ones that we can't corroborate? Well which is it?

I have never stated that I have built my arguement on sales figures. My arguement is based on many different things. I have stated this over and over again. And you say I can't read?




No need to apologize, I'm not wrong. The very fact that you put "Neilsen" and "business" in the same breath is troubling, don't you think? It's bought and paid for, I think we've established that.

No I don't think. Are you saying that every business that exist is crooked and cannot be trusted? So why can't nielsons as a business be trusted if it has not been proven they did anything wrong. That is just more paranoia. So based on what you have advanced here, nobody should buy anything from anyone, no one should go to work, everyone should live on the streets because all business that employ, sell, collect data, and service people are all evil. That is paranoia 101



Are you hearing what you are saying? You are telling me that these figures with billions at stake are from the very industry that stands to benefit, right? How does that not give you the willies that this is perhaps not accurate? It means a whole lot that I don't trust them and you shouldn't either, at least not completely and unequivocally as you apparently do.

Once again, you do not know the process. NDP is not in the same business as Sony and Disney. Got that? NDP is not in the same business as Samsung or Panasonic. So NDP stands to gain nothing from reporting the data to these guys except a check. If there information has been proven incorrect, then they get no check. Sony does not collect data, they make movies and consumer electronics. Samsung does not collect data, they make consumer electronics. When NDP sales figures are proven to be inaccurate, then their data will be discarded.

I never said I unequivicolly trusted anything. I never said it never. I said until NDP data is proven unreliable I trust it. This is not blind trust, this is conditional trust which is quite different than unequivocally trusting.




never[/U] representative of the whole picture. People shouldn't be lemmings to "official" information - it's what gets us into wars, makes us believe that Fox is news, that there will be plenty of oil forever, that China will always provide us with cheap low & mid-fi, and that BR has won this format war.

A sales figure is representative of a sale(I never used the words statistics you did). If your business is retail, and you cannot use sales figures to gage the health of your business, you are sunk. Just what do you use then?

Now you are off on another tangent. News organization(as opposed to data collectors) have never been the bastion of truth, just perspective and opinion. That is not the same as collecting a sales figure and reporting it. You can twist news, but you cannot twist the simple sale of a player or DVD. Either it happened, or it didn't. It doesn't matter if you mis-represent who bought the player, all you are interested in is the sale. That is not what news does. Apples and pears here.




I never set out to completely dismiss your sources. I only said they were not complete.

And I say that is your opinion, and not the truth. You haven't proven they're incomplete, you have advance theories on why you THINK they are not complete. There is a difference.


And the broader your sources, the more chance for variance - it's just mathematical probability.

So based on this comment, there isn't a whole lot of variances. You buy a player, and sale is posted. The sale is posted, and that data is collected. So far in this process there isn't a whole lot of room for variances.


You seem bent on the idea that I want to invalidate everything you present. So who's paranoid, now? I'm not out to get you. Frankly I could care a flying flaming fairy fart less about you, your insider information, and your seniority on AR. You are completely irrelevant to my point about statistics. You just want to carry the torch for such a narrow focussed argument that you think it makes the whole case. It doesn't. Get over yourself.

You don't seem to understand....I don't care if you invalidate everything I have presented. It has no bearing on anything, and doesn't change anything.




Let me quote you verbatim. You said: "No one has proclaimed a winner here. NO ONE." Except that Pixel did. And to be frank, your own flag waiving is pretty transparent too.

Hmmmm..Pixel is not Sir T, Sir T not pixel. Sir T cannot speak for Pixel, Pixel cannot speak for Sir T. When I speak of no one, I am speaking of me, myself, and I. I cannot speak for Pixel, and I cannot be responsible for what he says.

I have not been secretive at all about who I think will when, but that a long way from confirming that someone already has.




That's just the problem. You're within the industry.

So just because a Doctor works in the health industry, his comments on the industry are dismissed because he is on the inside? That's pretty dumb. So he is to trust an accountant to tell him about the health industry becuase the accountant isn't an insider. Okay, that good, but no cigar.


I'm not building my argument on just unknowns (you should really get yourself some glasses and read what I actually wrote). I said that the unknowns may be significant, perhaps overwhelming.

Maybe is not "is"or "are". Until you can make maybe is or are, then its significance comes into question. Your maybe is designed to create FUD in this case, since your maybe has not been proven to be "so"


I also said that statistics were inherently questionable and that you have an interest. Since you're obviously making a hansome profit from your pontification, I hardly think that is up for debate.

Can you explain my interest, and how I am making a profit from mentioning the fact that bluray is outselling HD DVD? I don't own a studio, or a CE manufacturing plant. I don't own stock in entertainment companies, or CE electronic companies. So just where is the handsome profit your purport I am making? More stupid, unverified, unsubstantiated claims with no proof of support. Geeze..........




Well it's good for you I'm not a debate coach. Or am I? Wait a minute, weren't you trying to tell me a thing or two about computers? Downloads? The internet? Maybe I invented the Internet? You don't know. That's an unknown that may just be relevant here, heck it could even be overwhelmingly more important than the knowns. Don't even try to throw sand in my sandbox - you will get hurt.

This comment is good for a laugh and nothing more. Thanks for the chuckle.


What is uncomfortable to me is someone who is so rigidly stuck on their own facts, won't admit that they may be wrong, and wants to stifle all dissent. We've met your types before throughout history and it's never been a pleasant outcome. Did you fail history in school too?

If my fact are wrong, prove it. You still have not proven that I stifle dissent, you are just saying it and hope it sticks. You don't know what my type is because you don't know me. See this is what I mean, if you cannot debate the subject matter, you attack the person personally. This conversation is not about me, it is about you proving your claims that HD DVD and Bluray sales figures are wrong, and because of that make my opinions invalid.




It's not like there's any of your precious money on the line. We're only wagering on who will admit to being wrong. You threw down the gauntlet, I picked it up. What? Is that too far outside of your boundaries?

I don't wager on fools bets. So move on.




Well, what media would you consider within your boundaries? A/V mags? Newspapers? Books? White papers? The Wall Street Journal? What are you willing to exclude to arrive at your desired conclusions? Sounds to me like you are obsessed with defining the boundaries of this argument. Personally, I would feel more comfortable with sources from a broader perspective, you know, to get the whole picture. Oh, that's right you don't want the whole picture. Just your own narrow sandbox will do.

All you have to do is prove that sales figures presented by NDP are not correct. That is the crust of your arguement, and what I am asking you to prove.




I will consider all reasonable sources, and I think Mr. Peabody and most others here will too. Even if it's on a blog, it will have relevance if viewed in the context of the whole picture. If the scope is too narrow, then it is inevitable that something just slightly larger will supplant it. But that's where you want to define it. It's moronic, I know, but I can't seem to make that clear enough.

This is not about what I have stated, it is about you proving that sales figures from NDP are wrong. You can make this anything you want, but in the end, you make a claim, you prove that claim.



You really can't read can you?

I can read when the point is clear and not overly cryptic or muddy. You are not very good at clarity.


I said that people think about war in black and white. It's what gets them to go along with it. The complexity of this war, the history, the culture, the languages, the politics are infinitely more complex and gray. And what you are desperately trying to address is just the hard numbers, the black and white, if you will, without taking into account that the real issue is the people's attitudes in choosing one format over an other, the vagaries of the technology, and the market trends that shape this war, the vague, the unknowns, and the gray.

Since we are talking about hard numbers(which are sales figures) then it is just black and white. You are trying to make it more complex by bringing in everything including the kitchen sink to muddy the issues.

Peoples attitudes have nothing to do with a point of sale. They are either going to pick bluray or HD DVD for the own reasons. There is nothing vague about the technology. If somebody want to learn about it, it is all over the internet

I simply stated that sales figures have been consistantly in bluray favor since the beginning of the year. I simply stated that bluray standalone players are currently outselling HD DVD standalones. I made no market prediction of victory, I just stated a point of fact. You have turned this into something completely different.


Now I think I'm beginning to undertsand why you are coming off so myopic about this format war. You see war (Iraq or format) as confusing and complex so you want to slap some numbers on it to make sense of it. You have a type-A obsession to define, reduce, categorize, enumerate, compartmentalize, and quantify it. Well, the reality is that your quest is a fantasy. No amount of statistical analysis is going to get you the answers you want - it can never be the whole picture with just mathematical parameters.

Still wrong, do you want to try again. How you can make statement without proof just amazes me. You have me all defined, reduced, catagorized, lock up, and smooth out, and you don't even know anything about me. You continue to march off topic. We are talking HD DVD and bluray, your are talking about me AGAIN!!! LOL Stay on topic.



Then why not back up what you're claiming? Or are you afraid that it will prove to be the first time ever that you will have to admit to being wrong? Either put up or shut up.

You have yet to bring one piece of evidence that NDP sales figures are wrong yet you are asking me to back up what I have said. You have got to be joking




Here you go again with the money. Don't your industry buddies pay you enough to stop worrying about it? For the umptieth time, there's no money involved in this wager. Either put up or shut up. Or as my grandfather used to say, either sh*t or get off the pot.

We have already address this. Who cares what your grandfather used to say, its not relevant to the topic at hand.




So let me get this straight. Because I don't have access to your "inside" sources, I need to shut up?

No, you need to shut up because you have presented no evidence to prove your point. You are just rambling now.




Then everyone here should just shut up, right? Maybe if all of AR were filled with your 1900+ posts only, the world would be a better place? Now how would that be useful? It would be narrow, to be sure, it would make you happy, I'm sure too, but how would that be of any use to those who do not see this forum as just "entertainment"?

Bluray, HD DVD, where are you in this?




No I have a hard time staying on the topic that you have defined and narrowed down from what Mr. Peabody requested. That's a bit different from your undertsanding of where we got started.

Everything I have posted in this thread has been about HD DVD and Bluray. Everything you have posted in this thread has been about books and links that have no relevancy to HD DVD or Bluray. Mr Peabody requested addtional information regarding HD DVD and Bluray, not a book on the manipulation of statistics. Let's not get this twisted.




I presented no conspiracy theories. I presented well researched and peer-reviewed books. Oh, I'm sorry is that beyond the scope of where you want to keep it? Who made you the decider? Oh, I know, you decided that yourself. Are you absolutely sure you're not related to Bush? Maybe just dipping your nose into the snuff box too much?

Those book don't even mention one word about HD DVD and Bluray, you even admitted that yourself. It really doesn't matter that they are well researched and peer reviewed, they are not about HD DVD and Bluray which the OP specifically mentions desiring information on. So now who has been in the snuff too much?


Well that was a non-productive way for me to spend the late morning. You can bring a mule to water...

But much like yourself they are too stupid to drink.


All kidding aside, you need to be willing to talk about the facts I have presented:

- Statistics are estimates
- Statistics are biased towards the entity collecting the data
- Statistics do not address the unknowns

We can argue forever, and I won't shy away from it, but if you can't look beyond what you have defined as the parameters of this discussion, then I really have nothing to discuss with you. My simple point is that statistics and inside information do not present a complete picture. I believe that is why Mr. Peabody started this thread. Does 67% in favor of Blu-Ray make this a format war a done deal? My answer is that it doesn't.

Statistics were mentioned by you, sales figures were mention by me.
Not all statistics are collected by biased parties
Unknowns cannot be factored into sales figures because sales are knowns.

My Peabody set the parimeters, I stayed within them, you did not.

I never said that a Bluray sales lead equal anything but a sales lead. I still do not know where I stated that Bluray had already won this war. However since you are the expert at making things up, you have to show me were I stated this war was over.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Right after your first post on the Dracula movie, Sir T posted "I agree", referring to the assumption that many made, the movie was a poor transfer from DSD. If he was really involved with Blu-ray.com, Terrence, being what he is, would have jumped at the chance to set things straight right then, and took another opportunity to boast about his supposed affiliation with the biz. But he didn't, because he really had no idea, so he Googled around, and then posted a few lines from the article that apparently didn't get highlighted when I copied it. Then put on his pose to try to save face. If it hasn't been deleted, his stumble is right on this thread. I for one have always doubted Sir T's claims to be in the biz. I believe he is a very insecure person who feels he has to build himself up in order to be accepted and try to be the big fish in a small pond. I have to give him credit I've never seen anyone twist peoples statements around to try to make them say something that was not originally intended. He missed his calling, he should be in politics.

Wow Mr Peabody, that's harsh. Well its shouldn't take long to make a lie out of you.

http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=18622

Look at what is says next to my name. Sound Insider right? So If I am not over at Bluray.com providing inside information(that I am allowed to speak about) why would I have that next to my name. Do you see it next to anyone elses? No, the moderators give it to you when the ask you to be a insider.

Since I am an insider, I talk to other insiders. Check out Paidgeek, Penton man, Maxpower and other on that website. They are all insiders. We talk

All of the information I posted came directly from Paidgeek in a private message, and then the information was posted in the insider thread. No need for google, and no need to copy your stuff. And there is no need to lie about me, or try and disparage my name. If I didn't work in the business, then I could not get a Sound Insider next to my name. The title Insider only goes to those that work at a studio, and since I work at a studio as an audio engineer, hence Sound Insider.

Don't you know how to forget past disagreements? I have moved on from ours, grow up and do the same.

I do not work for Sony, so why would you think its my duty to explain problems with Dracula?

[PeruvianSkies]

Wow Mr Peabody, that's harsh. Well its shouldn't take long to make a lie out of you.

http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=18622

Look at what is says next to my name. Sound Insider right? So If I am not over at Bluray.com providing inside information(that I am allowed to speak about) why would I have that next to my name. Do you see it next to anyone elses? No, the moderators give it to you when the ask you to be a insider.

Since I am an insider, I talk to other insiders. Check out Paidgeek, Penton man, Maxpower and other on that website. They are all insiders. We talk

All of the information I posted came directly from Paidgeek in a private message, and then the information was posted in the insider thread. No need for google, and no need to copy your stuff. And there is no need to lie about me, or try and disparage my name. If I didn't work in the business, then I could not get a Sound Insider next to my name. The title Insider only goes to those that work at a studio, and since I work at a studio as an audio engineer, hence Sound Insider.

Don't you know how to forget past disagreements? I have moved on from ours, grow up and do the same.

I do not work for Sony, so why would you think its my duty to explain problems with Dracula?

Dude, get a life. It took you like 3 hours to dissect and respond to Nightfliers post. Don't you have anything better to do? It's obvious that neither one of you are going to give in on the dispute, but save us from having to read your novels back and forth!

I am beginning to think that Sir T, despite his long-standing history at this site has evolved into some type of advanced supertroll. He's a bit more evasive than your typical troll, but I am using my Troll-O-Meter and I am picking up some very strong signals within this thread from his direction. It would seem that he uses his cloaking device (read lengthy ramblings compiled from various sources that do in fact make some sense). This cloaking device enables him to be reputable to most people and harmless as well, but at the same time he throws out these hard opinions to which he stands by AND like any ordinary troll, becomes highly defensive when questioned, to which he uses his other advanced troll abilities, which is another attribute of these supertrolls, he has the ability to do certainly psychology and uses word games in order to twist around and tear apart everything that is said and then proceeds to take it out of context, thus making or attempting to make the other person sound less educated and or inferior.

Now let me be clear here...I don't doubt that you are an insider and have connections, or even that you are a "specialist" on this topic, but even "specialists" can be wrong, or using the doctor analogy...it's like this....

Let's say you were a Heart Doctor (a specialist in that field) and you were very good at what you did. Now, do you make mistakes? Maybe. Who is to say? Well, other people within that profession would have first hand knowledge as to whether or not you made a mistake. However, that doesn't mean that someone else could have pointed out your mistake as well, and I am not saying that you made a mistake on this thread or that the information that you provided is 100% false or inaccurate, I am simply making a point on being right, being wrong, and just an opinion. You know it takes a strong person to admit when they are wrong or that they 'could' be wrong. Sometimes there is no way of knowing. Specialists, scientists, doctors, lawyers, anyone can make mistakes, no-one is perfect and just because you might be an authority on a subject doesn't discount other peoples feelings, beliefs, and opinions on that subject, and sometimes....believe it or not....they might be right too.

[pixelthis]

2 mb is probably alright for most internet activities, but most likely not for downloading. I have 1.5 dsl and takes three hours to download contents equal to a CD (700 mb). Now if I want to down load a movie size of DVD (4.5 gb), it will take about 20 hours :nonod:



I agree with you. Downloading is not an attractive option when you can own it "physically" :16:


HEY SMOKEY, have you done the math on your downloads?
NO way are you getting 1.5.
I had DSL, and their download claims tend to be somewhat optimistic to put it politely.
I have 1.5 cable, and it only takes a few minutes to DL 35mb.
I have downloaded entire albums in lossless formats off of newsgroups,
and rarely does it take thirty minutes
YOU SHOULD be getting at least a 100mb in ten minutes, or around that.
And no way is a movie on the net 4,5 gig.
Most use divx, or wma, or RAR.
AND theres a lot of fluff in a DVD that you don't need.
In any event, your DSL provider is putting the screwdoo to ya, friend:1:

[Woochifer]

Oh geez, nightflier are you going through yet another round of scrutiny on what the Nielson figures represent?

First and foremost, you can attack the methodology and try poking holes in statistical theory all you want, but for purposes of tracking sales of video titles by format, there is no source out there that's even remotely as accurate or comprehensive as the Nielson figures. Why? Because this is not a statistical sample based on a small percentage of a population -- it's a point-of-sale transactional tally that covers the majority of the total sales represented in the market. This is not like a psychological study where the findings are based on a sample that represents a small percentage of the total population and reported within a certain confidence range.

If the Nielson Videoscan/Soundscan methodology (which you have not at all referred to in any substantive manner in how Nielson's data collection is actually done) is as flawed and subject to manipulation as you claim, then who should be doing the data collection? The government? The Economic Census, which is setup to potentially track this kind of information and has about the highest response rate of any business survey, is conducted every five years, and it takes approximately 3 1/2 years for the Census Bureau to complete the data reporting -- is that the interval that you would propose? Or if you use the monthly Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tracks the Consumer Price Index, you're relying on a sample of 90,000 households with a much lower threshold and higher error rate. Or do we just do away with objectivity altogether and let empirical evidence rule the roost?

And if the problems with the Nielson methodology are as glaring as you've impugned, then why do all of the major studios (including those that support HD-DVD) and record companies subscribe to their service? I can tell you first hand that the Nielson point-of-sale service was a direct response to the blatant data manipulation that routinely occurred before the major media companies and retailers went on board with the Soundscan and Videoscan services.

Before Soundscan and Videoscan came along, music and video sales reported by Billboard, Cash Box, and other charts were recorded using weekly inventory tallies that were done by hand. Retail store managers were often directed by distributors to withhold reporting some of the sales transactions until a specified number of weeks after the release date. This was done because back then the most important trend to demonstrate was upward sales momentum. Albums would hardly ever debut at #1, but rather #4, #8, or #10 "with a bullet." Sales reports were routinely massaged so that the weekly charts would consistently show new albums rising up the charts, even if the actual sales trends were less consistent.

Soundscan/Videoscan take this kind of extreme bias out of the equation by recording the transaction at the point of sale. Before Soundscan/Videoscan came along, the record companies could not even identify how many copies of a given title actually sold in a given week. The availability of accurate sales data fundamentally changed how retailers, record companies, and the studios did their marketing. All of these midnight release parties for new CD or video releases, and front loaded week-of-release marketing for DVDs are a direct response to Soundscan/Videoscan. The record companies and studios no longer try to show momentum and week-to-week rise in chart positions, but rather huge sales numbers on the week of release.

And before you go into how data can still be manipulated, try asking why would Nielson setup a de facto payola system where chart positions can be bought and sold if all of the major media organizations subscribe to their service? Presumably, they would want the most accurate data recording possible. While HD-DVD fanboys have done plenty of baseless ranting about Nielson's Blu-ray "bias," I have yet to hear anything from Toshiba, Microsoft, Universal, Paramount, or Dreamworks challenging the accuracy of the Nielson data. If there was any kind of data manipulation going on in the midst of a format war, why wouldn't they challenge it? Maybe because the HD-DVD and Blu-ray proponents alike selectively report bits and pieces of the sales data that suit their purposes. If there was a fundamental flaw or bias in the data, then it would stand to reason that one side would report the Nielson data, while the other side would find a different data source.

I'm not saying that the Nielson data is perfect, because there are holes in the sample (e.g., Wal-Mart stopped participating in 2001). But, short of a 100% sample (which would be impossible given that retail sales data for individual stores/retail chains is proprietary), the Nielson data is about as good you're going to get for tracking video sales, and it draws from a much larger sample (~60% of the total sales) than just about any other categorical retail sales tracking data that I've seen.

[GMichael]

Wow. I missed these threads.

[L.J.]

Ok, this is my first post and I was hesitant to post on this site after reading this thread because it would seem that everything that I said would be picked apart by the vultures here. Maybe i'll hang around for a bit and see before I post much.

Dude you are freakin' nuts.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Oh geez, nightflier are you going through yet another round of scrutiny on what the Nielson figures represent?

First and foremost, you can attack the methodology and try poking holes in statistical theory all you want, but for purposes of tracking sales of video titles by format, there is no source out there that's even remotely as accurate or comprehensive as the Nielson figures. Why? Because this is not a statistical sample based on a small percentage of a population -- it's a point-of-sale transactional tally that covers the majority of the total sales represented in the market. This is not like a psychological study where the findings are based on a sample that represents a small percentage of the total population and reported within a certain confidence range.

If the Nielson Videoscan/Soundscan methodology (which you have not at all referred to in any substantive manner in how Nielson's data collection is actually done) is as flawed and subject to manipulation as you claim, then who should be doing the data collection? The government? The Economic Census, which is setup to potentially track this kind of information and has about the highest response rate of any business survey, is conducted every five years, and it takes approximately 3 1/2 years for the Census Bureau to complete the data reporting -- is that the interval that you would propose? Or if you use the monthly Consumer Expenditure Survey, which tracks the Consumer Price Index, you're relying on a sample of 90,000 households with a much lower threshold and higher error rate. Or do we just do away with objectivity altogether and let empirical evidence rule the roost?

And if the problems with the Nielson methodology are as glaring as you've impugned, then why do all of the major studios (including those that support HD-DVD) and record companies subscribe to their service? I can tell you first hand that the Nielson point-of-sale service was a direct response to the blatant data manipulation that routinely occurred before the major media companies and retailers went on board with the Soundscan and Videoscan services.

Before Soundscan and Videoscan came along, music and video sales reported by Billboard, Cash Box, and other charts were recorded using weekly inventory tallies that were done by hand. Retail store managers were often directed by distributors to withhold reporting some of the sales transactions until a specified number of weeks after the release date. This was done because back then the most important trend to demonstrate was upward sales momentum. Albums would hardly ever debut at #1, but rather #4, #8, or #10 "with a bullet." Sales reports were routinely massaged so that the weekly charts would consistently show new albums rising up the charts, even if the actual sales trends were less consistent.

Soundscan/Videoscan take this kind of extreme bias out of the equation by recording the transaction at the point of sale. Before Soundscan/Videoscan came along, the record companies could not even identify how many copies of a given title actually sold in a given week. The availability of accurate sales data fundamentally changed how retailers, record companies, and the studios did their marketing. All of these midnight release parties for new CD or video releases, and front loaded week-of-release marketing for DVDs are a direct response to Soundscan/Videoscan. The record companies and studios no longer try to show momentum and week-to-week rise in chart positions, but rather huge sales numbers on the week of release.

And before you go into how data can still be manipulated, try asking why would Nielson setup a de facto payola system where chart positions can be bought and sold if all of the major media organizations subscribe to their service? Presumably, they would want the most accurate data recording possible. While HD-DVD fanboys have done plenty of baseless ranting about Nielson's Blu-ray "bias," I have yet to hear anything from Toshiba, Microsoft, Universal, Paramount, or Dreamworks challenging the accuracy of the Nielson data. If there was any kind of data manipulation going on in the midst of a format war, why wouldn't they challenge it? Maybe because the HD-DVD and Blu-ray proponents alike selectively report bits and pieces of the sales data that suit their purposes. If there was a fundamental flaw or bias in the data, then it would stand to reason that one side would report the Nielson data, while the other side would find a different data source.

I'm not saying that the Nielson data is perfect, because there are holes in the sample (e.g., Wal-Mart stopped participating in 2001). But, short of a 100% sample (which would be impossible given that retail sales data for individual stores/retail chains is proprietary), the Nielson data is about as good you're going to get for tracking video sales, and it draws from a much larger sample (~60% of the total sales) than just about any other categorical retail sales tracking data that I've seen.

You mean he has been on this rant before. Geeze, you would think that he would get tired of arguing this issue with no proof of any wrong doing by NDP. I have never heard of someone demonizing something before its been proven unreliable.

[nightflier]

Just kidding.

SirT has dug his own hole and I sure as hell am not going to help dig him out. I'm pretty sure everyone's is tired of reading about our debate so if he's so sure about his numbers, then he should have no problem with a little wager. As I said before to him, either put up of shut up (nothing to loose but a little pride, there, my brother).

Your points are worth exploring, though. As I started reading your post I was all set to start with Walmart's defection and that they represent a substantial portion of movie sales... Then I read that you thoughtfully included that at the end. It's that kind of careful writing that should be applauded here.

Nielson ratings shouldn't be dismissed or written off. If my business depended on movie sales, I certainly would value the information. That said, I still would say the same thing about why they do not represent the whole picture:

1. While sales number for a single store can still be accurate, once numbers are aggregated nation wide, or even worldwide, they become statistics, and thus estimates with margins of error.

2. Small percentage variations, for example between the sale of BR & HDDVD disks of the same movie, can be significant. For example, they can be smaller than the margin of error.

3. Small percentage variations, can get blown out of proportion once the media, the industry, and the flag-waivers get a hold of them. This is not Nielson's fault, but it bears mentioning, because I think the Nielson head honchos do read them - or at the very least their lawyers do.

4. If previous data collection bodies, that we all believed to be "impartial," from Billboard to Videoscan can be found to be biased, then we can't really say that Nielson's numbers are completely reliable either or whether their reliability can change over time as pressure mounts in this format war.

5. Nielson exists because the industry pays them. Their existence depends to some extent, perhaps a very small extent, on keeping the industry happy (kind of like Sound & Vision reviewers). While this may only be a small influence, is it enough to exceed the margin of error?

Look, I don't have hard numbers, I simply don't have that kind of insider information and I don't subscribe to NDP. I am only advising caution before everybody starts buying into one format or the other. There is variability in the numbers and there is industry influence. Can we really be so sure, after everything we know from the history of this business, that we have enough information to make that purchase? Personally I've been burned by LD and SACD. I've sold off all my LD gear and I decided to hold onto to SACD, but I can't say I didn't feel betrayed by the industry, the reviewers, and the media. Now that I know bit more about the rotten way that the SACD was hobbled from the start, I have even less faith in the "official" sources, whatever they may be.

So despite all the positive news from the BR camp, I still think there are real challenges to jumping with both feet into that pond:

- Not all studios are with BR
- HDDVD has pretty much the same technical advantages
- Microsoft is a big player and really hasn't shown itself (yet?)
- Both BR & HDDVD only represent a very small share of the movie market
- Sales figures may not be a 100% complete picture [we've been discussing that here]
- Either format involves a considerable financial investment for most people, adding to their trepidation
- VOD is vying for the same consumers
- Downloaded content is possible in Japan, so how long until it's here?

There are just too many questions. I applaud the courage of those who have made a choice, and I'm sure they are enjoying their systems, but for those of us who are still on the fence, the choice is really not that clear. Well, with the exception of Pixel and SirT, I suppose.

By the way, if a tanker full of BR or HDDVD disks sank in the pacific, or any other catastrophic, political, or gray-market event affected availability, it would have an impact on the price of players. This can certainly have an impact on this format war, especially during this crucial holiday season. And as far as being impartial is concerned, everybody has a small angle, even doctors - after all if we were all healthy, they would be out of work. SirT mentioned that his analyses had been good for his wallet, so I presumed from that that he too had an interest, although now I think he just has a bone to pick with Toshiba and once he gets his claws into a foe... well you know the rest.

In my opinion, and in answer to Mr. Peabody's initial post, the numbers in favor of BR, while impressive, are not enough for me to buy in. I also don't think that a 2-1 margin should be a concluding factor in this format war for anyone else browsing the malls and online stores for an upgrade in their HT systems. There are far more questions to be asked, in my opinion. I would need to see a much wider margin as well as more damning news about HDDVD, VOD, Downloads, and everything else that stands in the way of BR, before I open up my wallet.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Dude, get a life. It took you like 3 hours to dissect and respond to Nightfliers post. Don't you have anything better to do? It's obvious that neither one of you are going to give in on the dispute, but save us from having to read your novels back and forth!

PS, it actually took me closer to twenty minutes. I was doing two other things aside from answering this rather useless post.


I am beginning to think that Sir T, despite his long-standing history at this site has evolved into some type of advanced supertroll. He's a bit more evasive than your typical troll, but I am using my Troll-O-Meter and I am picking up some very strong signals within this thread from his direction. It would seem that he uses his cloaking device (read lengthy ramblings compiled from various sources that do in fact make some sense). This cloaking device enables him to be reputable to most people and harmless as well, but at the same time he throws out these hard opinions to which he stands by AND like any ordinary troll, becomes highly defensive when questioned, to which he uses his other advanced troll abilities, which is another attribute of these supertrolls, he has the ability to do certainly psychology and uses word games in order to twist around and tear apart everything that is said and then proceeds to take it out of context, thus making or attempting to make the other person sound less educated and or inferior.

Man, you have been watching far too many movies. Step away from the set, and out into the real world bro.

I have no problems with anyone questioning what I state. I actually invite people to do so by providing links etc. However, when a person challenges what I state, and provides not one shred of information that rebuts or refuts it, then why should I be considered wrong?

Next piece to this. Trolling. You are calling me a supertroll. Here is the definition of a troll.
"is someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an on-line community such as an on-line discussion forum with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

1. I have yet to post any topic since I have been back here. I have responded to topics.
2. I have never baited anyone into an argumentive response. I just posted my opinion which is supported by facts. That's quite a difference.
3. I am not the OP of thread. Mr Peabody is. In this particular instance only Mr Peabody can be the troll.

Now that we have delt with that, please realize that calling me names is not an adult approach. Adults do not have to call names when they discuss things. You can agree to disagree, but the name calling just isn't necessary.




Now let me be clear here...I don't doubt that you are an insider and have connections, or even that you are a "specialist" on this topic, but even "specialists" can be wrong, or using the doctor analogy...it's like this...

You are correct, I can be wrong, and have been in the past. However, those who accuse you of being wrong have the burden of PROVING that you are wrong. You can't just call somebody wrong, and hope it sticks.


Let's say you were a Heart Doctor (a specialist in that field) and you were very good at what you did. Now, do you make mistakes? Maybe. Who is to say? Well, other people within that profession would have first hand knowledge as to whether or not you made a mistake. However, that doesn't mean that someone else could have pointed out your mistake as well, and I am not saying that you made a mistake on this thread or that the information that you provided is 100% false or inaccurate, I am simply making a point on being right, being wrong, and just an opinion. You know it takes a strong person to admit when they are wrong or that they 'could' be wrong. Sometimes there is no way of knowing. Specialists, scientists, doctors, lawyers, anyone can make mistakes, no-one is perfect and just because you might be an authority on a subject doesn't discount other peoples feelings, beliefs, and opinions on that subject, and sometimes....believe it or not....they might be right too.

Another audio engineer could point out that I was wrong because he or she knows the job. However, there is no way a Doctor who has never been in a recording studio can tell me that I am wrong while recording. How would he know. In this example we have here, there is a person who does not work in the industry(which may or may not be important depending on their knowledge of the industry), who obviously does not understand how the industry works, is saying that the information the industry uses to gage its sales health is inherently flawed and manipulated. Yet he has offered nothing in the way of direct information to refute said information. He is just making a unsupported claim because he read in a book they can manipulate stat's. If you are going to call someone a crook, you have to have proof they actually stole something. You cannot go to court and tell the judge that based on the fact the person has stolen something in the past, he is guilty of stealing again without evidence. That is called an unsubstantiated claim

[PeruvianSkies]

That was a good one, use the definition of a 'troll' and then re-work it so that it seems that it doesn't apply to you. Nice one. A troll is indeed someone who posts with the intent of causing arguments, but there is NEVER any mention that it has to be the original poster. You could be a troll and post anywhere on the thread that you like, it's called Troll-jacking. Please stop trying to use your reverse wordology and wikipedia to baffle us. We are not impressed.

[dean_martin]

Are ya'll done? Is the debate over? Is it too late to chime in? Earlier this year I read an interview of one of the founders of ARCAM. I got the distinct impression he was pulling for HD-DVD to prevail. Here's the interview: http://stereophile.com/interviews/107daw/

It made me wonder whether some of the hardware manufacturers we (most regulars) tend to gravitate to are/were pulling for HD-DVD early on. Admittedly, Sony is no slouch. Sometimes their reputation is actually better than their products, but there's no doubt they are formidable competition.

I've never been an early adopter, but I splurged on Toshiba's 2nd gen entry player when it went on sale for $269.99 (and 5 free titles by mail). I'm glad I did because I didn't have an sd player with upconverting/upscaling circuitry and sd dvds looked bad on my HD display. I think I could've accomplished the same thing (near-hd picture with sd dvds) by getting a quality upscaling player from the likes of Denon, Marantz, Pioneer Elite, or taking a chance on a cheaper player from brands I'm not as familiar with such as Oppo. However, I wouldn't have the option of a true hd source. You can probably tell that I'm pleased with the Toshiba's performance with sd dvds. If Blu-ray wins out, I know I can at least get most of Stanley Kubrick's movies on HD-DVD before the war ends and still have a unit that makes sd dvds look good. Heck, if Blu-ray ultimately prevails, then I'll have a legit reason to get a PS3, right?

[L.J.]

That was a good one, use the definition of a 'troll' and then re-work it so that it seems that it doesn't apply to you. Nice one. A troll is indeed someone who posts with the intent of causing arguments, but there is NEVER any mention that it has to be the original poster. You could be a troll and post anywhere on the thread that you like, it's called Troll-jacking. Please stop trying to use your reverse wordology and wikipedia to baffle us. We are not impressed.

Actually , the definition fits you perfectly :ciappa:

And who is this "we" and "us", your talking about? You scare me.

[L.J.]

Heck, if Blu-ray ultimately prevails, then I'll have a legit reason to get a PS3, right?

:thumbsup:

[PeruvianSkies]

Actually , the definition fits you perfectly :ciappa:

And who is this "we" and "us", your talking about? You scare me.

You sound more like Pix each day, are you sure you two aren't related?

[kexodusc]

That was a good one, use the definition of a 'troll' and then re-work it so that it seems that it doesn't apply to you. Nice one. A troll is indeed someone who posts with the intent of causing arguments, but there is NEVER any mention that it has to be the original poster. You could be a troll and post anywhere on the thread that you like, it's called Troll-jacking. Please stop trying to use your reverse wordology and wikipedia to baffle us. We are not impressed.
Come on now...there's a big difference between a troll and Sir T - advancing or defending one's position is not trolling. If Sir T is a troll, so is Nightflier. Neither are trolls, they just have a history of being on opposite sides of certain debates.

Man up dude, I'd apologize if I were you.

[PeruvianSkies]

Come on now...there's a big difference between a troll and Sir T - advancing or defending one's position is not trolling. If Sir T is a troll, so is Nightflier. Neither are trolls, they just have a history of being on opposite sides of certain debates.

Man up dude, I'd apologize if I were you.

Did you ever think that maybe some of us can see his true colors through the smoke-screen?

Apologize? Are you kidding me? He should apologize for making me spend 20-minutes just to read through ONE post.

[kexodusc]

Did you ever think that maybe some of us can see his true colors through the smoke-screen?
No.


Apologize? Are you kidding me? He should apologize for making me spend 20-minutes just to read through ONE post.
Hooked On Phonics can help with that.

[PeruvianSkies]

No.

Hooked On Phonics can help with that.

Please. You are doubting my inability to communicate? Ha. Shows what little you know about me, but you can keep on making assumptions. I think Sir T can stand up for himself if he feels threatened, now take your pack of dogs back to another thread.

[kexodusc]

Please. You are doubting my inability to communicate? Ha. Shows what little you know about me, but you can keep on making assumptions. I think Sir T can stand up for himself if he feels threatened, now take your pack of dogs back to another thread.
I am definitely NOT doubting your inability to communicate! LOL

[PeruvianSkies]

Apparently we are not allowed to disagree with anyone on this site, when we do we get lambasted by the rest.

[PeruvianSkies]

I am definitely NOT doubting your inability to communicate! LOL Please be so kind as to point out where I have failed the English language in my ability to type or read or function as a human being? I'll await your petty remark as well as I am sure you will have something.

[L.J.]

Apparently we are not allowed to disagree with anyone on this site, when we do we get lambasted by the rest.

:sad: Oh, somebody needs a hug.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Just kidding.

SirT has dug his own hole and I sure as hell am not going to help dig him out. I'm pretty sure everyone's is tired of reading about our debate so if he's so sure about his numbers, then he should have no problem with a little wager. As I said before to him, either put up of shut up (nothing to loose but a little pride, there, my brother).

Already addressed this, move on


Your points are worth exploring, though. As I started reading your post I was all set to start with Walmart's defection and that they represent a substantial portion of movie sales... Then I read that you thoughtfully included that at the end. It's that kind of careful writing that should be applauded here.

Just so you know, Walmart represents a substantial portion of DVD sales, not HD DVD or Bluray sales. There is a difference. HD DVD nor Bluray software is not offered in all of their stores. At this point the leader in HD software sales happens to Amazon, and NDP captures Amazon's sales.


Nielson ratings shouldn't be dismissed or written off. If my business depended on movie sales, I certainly would value the information. That said, I still would say the same thing about why they do not represent the whole picture:

1. While sales number for a single store can still be accurate, once numbers are aggregated nation wide, or even worldwide, they become statistics, and thus estimates with margins of error.

A margin of error does not negate the statistic, especially when that margin of error is understood. Companies standardize their reporting precedures so you don't have store to store variantions. Store to store variations in reporting sales figures are a nightmare to a large corporations bottom line, so I am sure they have designed reporting processes that eliminate these kinds of variation.


2. Small percentage variations, for example between the sale of BR & HDDVD disks of the same movie, can be significant. For example, they can be smaller than the margin of error.

Still no reason to discount the information.


3. Small percentage variations, can get blown out of proportion once the media, the industry, and the flag-waivers get a hold of them. This is not Nielson's fault, but it bears mentioning, because I think the Nielson head honchos do read them - or at the very least their lawyers do.

It really doesn't matter much if the media blows it out of proportion, they do it all the time. This is not relevant as long as the sales figures are properly collected.


4. If previous data collection bodies, that we all believed to be "impartial," from Billboard to Videoscan can be found to be biased, then we can't really say that Nielson's numbers are completely reliable either or whether their reliability can change over time as pressure mounts in this format war.

It is a stretch to gage what one company does and apply it automatically to another. They may have completely different ways of collecting data, which makes the two companies apples and oranges. One company may be found flawed, and the other not. However you would paint them all with a street sweeper.


5. Nielson exists because the industry pays them. Their existence depends to some extent, perhaps a very small extent, on keeping the industry happy (kind of like Sound & Vision reviewers). While this may only be a small influence, is it enough to exceed the margin of error?

The broadcast industry in the past has not been happy with Neilsons reporting. ABC seems to have ongoing issues with them. They however continue to use Nielsons ratings as a source when they set their advertising prices. So much for the theory that they must function in a way to keep the industry happy. They have a symbiant relationship.


Look, I don't have hard numbers, I simply don't have that kind of insider information and I don't subscribe to NDP. I am only advising caution before everybody starts buying into one format or the other. There is variability in the numbers and there is industry influence. Can we really be so sure, after everything we know from the history of this business, that we have enough information to make that purchase? Personally I've been burned by LD and SACD. I've sold off all my LD gear and I decided to hold onto to SACD, but I can't say I didn't feel betrayed by the industry, the reviewers, and the media. Now that I know bit more about the rotten way that the SACD was hobbled from the start, I have even less faith in the "official" sources, whatever they may be.

Do you really think that joe6pack does a careful analysis which includes acknowledging unknowns, inperfections in sales figures, industry influence, their dog pissed on the cat, or a shipment of HD DVD fell into the ocean when they go to the counter to purchase a HD player? I don't think so. It is much more simple than that. They just want a player that can play HD movies. If price is their priority, they'll choose HD DVD. If choice of players, flexbility of the players(PS3), or choice of manufacturer is important to them, they'll choose bluray.

Your faith in "official" sources is your issue. You knock me because I have issues with Toshiba, yet your perspective is clouded with issues of feeling betrayed by LD and SACD. On what basis is your opinion more valid than mine in this case? I wasn't burned by LD, I enjoyed it tremendously. I haven't been burned by SACD thanks to the fact the PS3 can play the discs. So do you expect me or anyone else to be as non trusting as you since we don't or didn't share your experience?


- Not all studios are with BR

Not all studios are with HD DVD as well. Despite this, people are buying players and disc.


HDDVD has pretty much the same technical advantages

Nope. There are some very big differences that can effect performance between the two formats. HD DVD cannot do seemless branching. HD DVD video rate tops out at 29.4mbps, blurays 48mbps. Big difference during difficult scenes. Bluray can use a variety of audio and video codecs, HD DVD cannot use MPEG-2, nor can it use PCM uncompressed audio. Bluray can use two dolby trueHD bitstreams along with a 16bit PCM uncompressed stream simultaneously. HD DVD can never do that.

Not as close as you try and make it is it?


Microsoft is a big player and really hasn't shown itself (yet?)

Microsoft doesn't make movies, nor HD players. However they do financially support the HD DVD format by way of being a part of the HD DVD PG and their developement of iHD.

Both BR & HDDVD only represent a very small share of the movie market

At this moment correct

Sales figures may not be a 100% complete picture [we've been discussing that here]

Irrelevant fact when a consumer goes to the checkout line. Most consumers don't care about sales figures


Either format involves a considerable financial investment for most people, adding to their trepidation

Considerable investment means different things to different people based on their economic position. I purchased both of my players for less than $850. The Sony BP-S300 can be found for around $425, and can be incorporated into any system that includes 6 channel analog ins. If you already have a HDTV, then the cost is the player and the HDMI cable which can be had for starting at $6 and up depending on length. Bundling will include some free movies to get you started. On Bluray.com there are some college students who have a bluray player and HDTV. So apparently its not the price, but the desire and will that gets you in the game.




VOD is vying for the same consumers

Not true. Past surveys have shown that movie collectors are not interested in VOD, and most people who use VOD are not interested in buying discs. I am the former. VOD is costly up front as you have to purchase a HD DVR, have cable or satellite service and its monthly fees along with the VOD per view price. When I had comcast with HD channels I was paying $120 a month. I am sure that would stop alot of people in their tracks.


Downloaded content is possible in Japan, so how long until it's here?

Japan can get far quicker download speeds than we can. We would have to rebuild our system from the ground up to get to those speeds. In spite of the fact that Japan can do downloads, DVD's, and now HD on disc is the rage. Thanks to the PS3 bluray has already overtaken VOD in terms of dollars, and VOD wasn't even on the radar compared to DVD sales in Japan.


There are just too many questions. I applaud the courage of those who have made a choice, and I'm sure they are enjoying their systems, but for those of us who are still on the fence, the choice is really not that clear. Well, with the exception of Pixel and SirT, I suppose.

The choice is clear to anyone who really wants HD movies on disc. If you like Universal movies(minus Spielbergs stuff) Paramount/Dreamworks(minus Coppola and Spielbergs stuff)movies, you'll pick HD DVD for the price. If you prefer Sony, Disney, and Fox movies, you'll go with Bluray. Warner serves both formats. Its difficult for you because as you have stated, you have been burned before. Not everyone has had your experience.




By the way, if a tanker full of BR or HDDVD disks sank in the pacific, or any other catastrophic, political, or gray-market event affected availability, it would have an impact on the price of players.

This is not oil here. If a tanker full of HDM on disc sank, the cost would remain the same. Besides, discs don't travel across the ocean. Most HD DVD and bluray disc are manufactured right in this country. You are applying apples and orange analysis in this case.




This can certainly have an impact on this format war, especially during this crucial holiday season. And as far as being impartial is concerned, everybody has a small angle, even doctors - after all if we were all healthy, they would be out of work.

Not exactly. Ever heard of preventive medicine???


SirT mentioned that his analyses had been good for his wallet, so I presumed from that that he too had an interest, although now I think he just has a bone to pick with Toshiba and once he gets his claws into a foe... well you know the rest.

I didn't say my analysis has been good for my wallet, I said my contacts within the industry have been good to my wallet. Huge difference here(reading comprehension for $100 pleeeze)

My bone with Toshiba has been picked and cast away. I moved on.


In my opinion, and in answer to Mr. Peabody's initial post, the numbers in favor of BR, while impressive, are not enough for me to buy in. I also don't think that a 2-1 margin should be a concluding factor in this format war for anyone else browsing the malls and online stores for an upgrade in their HT systems. There are far more questions to be asked, in my opinion. I would need to see a much wider margin as well as more damning news about HDDVD, VOD, Downloads, and everything else that stands in the way of BR, before I open up my wallet.

I am not going to debate the reasons why you don't support either format. None of my business. However, you do not have the right to use your reasons as a reason to discourage others. Based on what you have posted in this thread, most folks don't even think like you even when evaluating whether to get in either format. For some, its the price of the players, for some its the price of the software, for some its which studio supports which format, for some its none of these. Whatever their reason are, they do not need your biases in the mix.

[kexodusc]

Please be so kind as to point out where I have failed the English language in my ability to type or read or function as a human being? I'll await your petty remark as well as I am sure you will have something.
Failed the English language in your ability to function as a human being?
You're not making any sense.

[Woochifer]

Nielson ratings shouldn't be dismissed or written off. If my business depended on movie sales, I certainly would value the information. That said, I still would say the same thing about why they do not represent the whole picture:

1. While sales number for a single store can still be accurate, once numbers are aggregated nation wide, or even worldwide, they become statistics, and thus estimates with margins of error.

First off, the Soundscan and Videoscan numbers are not conflated from a small sample of stores. Rather, they are 100% samples from nearly all of the major retail chains, except for Wal-Mart, along with a multitude of indie stores and regional chains. Unless Wal-Mart's sales trends fundamentally differ from what sells at Best Buy, Borders, Amazon, Target, Circuit City, FYE, K-Mart, etc., their exclusion will not impact on the rankings significantly.


2. Small percentage variations, for example between the sale of BR & HDDVD disks of the same movie, can be significant. For example, they can be smaller than the margin of error.

You won't get a high error rate with as large a sample size as Nielson uses. Because of the small size of the HD-DVD/Blu-ray market, you can get big swings in the week to week rankings (though from what I've seen, as the HD optical market has grown this year, the trend fluctuations have slowed down considerably and we're seeing a lot more consistency from week to week), but Nielson's ability to accurately report the market swings in this specific market is not impacted because their sample captures such a high percentage of the universe for that market.


3. Small percentage variations, can get blown out of proportion once the media, the industry, and the flag-waivers get a hold of them. This is not Nielson's fault, but it bears mentioning, because I think the Nielson head honchos do read them - or at the very least their lawyers do.

For about the past three months, Blu-ray's week-to-week market share has consistently stayed in the 60% to 67% range. This seems to indicate that with the larger number of titles in both formats to choose from, it's now Blu-ray's larger installed user base, rather than whichever format has more new releases in a given week, that drives the market. This is a strong contrast from a year ago when the market share would dramatically shift from week to week depending on which format had the hot new release of the week coming out.


4. If previous data collection bodies, that we all believed to be "impartial," from Billboard to Videoscan can be found to be biased, then we can't really say that Nielson's numbers are completely reliable either or whether their reliability can change over time as pressure mounts in this format war.

FYI, Billboard's rankings are based on the Nielson data. The data manipulation that occurred in their previous charting was the exact reason why Billboard was one of the strongest proponents of Soundscan when it came on line. They knew that the manual tabulation method was unacceptably flawed, and helped to develop the more objective point-of-sale system.

Again, you're bringing up possibilities over what could happen without any evidence that the data itself is inaccurate or not representative.


5. Nielson exists because the industry pays them. Their existence depends to some extent, perhaps a very small extent, on keeping the industry happy (kind of like Sound & Vision reviewers). While this may only be a small influence, is it enough to exceed the margin of error?

They keep the industry happy by simply reporting the data accurately. That presumption of accuracy is why the industry subscribes to their data. Even with accurate data, the reports provide more than enough for the studios and record companies to spin the sales trends to suit whatever marketing or competitive objectives they might have. If Nielson got caught tinkering with the data to give one recording company/movie studio an advantage over another, how long do you think before they'd get dropped by the other companies or sued for breach of contract?

The Nielson Soundscan/Videoscan was created in the first place because the industry needed access to accurate tracking data more than they needed any buzz associated with gaming the sales charts (which did not even report unit sales). Like I asked before, if the Nielson data is flawed and does not represent an accurate picture of the actual sales trends, then what alternative would you propose, knowing from the outset that Wal-Mart's data won't get released to anybody?

Before the Soundscan point-of-sale reporting came about, the only unit data came from the RIAA, and they would only verify how many units got shipped and how many units got returned by wholesale distributors. Good enough for Gold and Platinum certification, but not good enough for time sensitive weekly tracking reports.


Look, I don't have hard numbers, I simply don't have that kind of insider information and I don't subscribe to NDP. I am only advising caution before everybody starts buying into one format or the other. There is variability in the numbers and there is industry influence.

...

So despite all the positive news from the BR camp, I still think there are real challenges to jumping with both feet into that pond:

- Not all studios are with BR
- HDDVD has pretty much the same technical advantages
- Microsoft is a big player and really hasn't shown itself (yet?)
- Both BR & HDDVD only represent a very small share of the movie market
- Sales figures may not be a 100% complete picture [we've been discussing that here]
- Either format involves a considerable financial investment for most people, adding to their trepidation
- VOD is vying for the same consumers
- Downloaded content is possible in Japan, so how long until it's here?

Looking at how the market is setup does not require access to hard numbers. Blu-ray has more manufacturer support, more studio support, more disc releases, higher share of the domestic box office exclusive to the format, etc. HD-DVD is lowering hardware prices because they have to. Toshiba is paying off studios to drop Blu-ray because they have to.

The HD disc market structure as currently situated simply puts HD-DVD at a disadvantage. You can claim that it's too early to decide one way or another, but the fact is that HD-DVD cannot sustain itself indefinitely without significant assistance from somewhere. The Paramount/Dreamworks announcement was a start, for one thing, it ensured that the format war will not conclude by the end of this year as many analysts had forecast. But, HD-DVD needs more equally market-changing announcements if it expects to remain viable through the end of next year. I think The Digital Bits' recommendation remains sound -- best not to invest in a HD format right now, but if you buy into one of the two formats, Blu-ray is the better choice.

As I've said elsewhere, downloading is not an issue so long as those files come locked down with time/view limits. Exploding content is nothing more than a horizontal move away from PPV and rentals. Open files create formidable competition for HD-DVD and Blu-ray, but ridiculously locked down content does not affect the market.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

That was a good one, use the definition of a 'troll' and then re-work it so that it seems that it doesn't apply to you. Nice one. A troll is indeed someone who posts with the intent of causing arguments, but there is NEVER any mention that it has to be the original poster. You could be a troll and post anywhere on the thread that you like, it's called Troll-jacking. Please stop trying to use your reverse wordology and wikipedia to baffle us. We are not impressed.

I kinda thought you had two personalities LOL. So neither of the entities in you are impressed?? Well, at least you guys are in sync LOL.

Okay, so from now on I will post so that everyone can sing kumbaya LOLOL

[Woochifer]

Please be so kind as to point out where I have failed the English language in my ability to type or read or function as a human being? I'll await your petty remark as well as I am sure you will have something.

Boy, and you talk about seeing Terrence's "true colors" thru the "smoke screen"?! :cornut:


Apparently we are not allowed to disagree with anyone on this site, when we do we get lambasted by the rest.

Oh, feel free to be as disagreeable as you want, it's much more entertaining that way! :6:

[Woochifer]

Okay, so from now on I will post so that everyone can sing kumbaya LOLOL

NNNNOOOOOOOO!!!!! Not kumbaya!!!! ANYTHING but kumbaya!!!!!!

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Did you ever think that maybe some of us can see his true colors through the smoke-screen?

So you noticed I am a brown. Great!!


Apologize? Are you kidding me? He should apologize for making me spend 20-minutes just to read through ONE post.

Why should I apologize to you? I can't help it if you read slow.

[PeruvianSkies]

So you noticed I am a brown. Great!!



Why should I apologize to you? I can't help it if you read slow.

I bet I can read and type faster than you. Took you 3 hours to write your latest and longest response to Nightflier, I know because I saw you logged on and were 'replying to thread' for a total of 3 hours...maybe you WERE doing something else, but how am I to know? No way of really knowing, but it certainly didn't take you 30 seconds either.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

NNNNOOOOOOOO!!!!! Not kumbaya!!!! ANYTHING but kumbaya!!!!!!

Come on Wooch(Sam key of eflat pleeze) group hug....ready:11:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I bet I can read and type faster than you. Took you 3 hours to write all of that, I know because I saw you logged on and were 'replying to thread' for a total of 3 hours...maybe you WERE doing something else, but how am I to know? No way of really knowing, but it certainly didn't take you 30 seconds either.

So if you have no way of knowing if I was doing something else, how can you assume that I was just sitting there?

Does it actually say "replying to thread" when you reply to a thread? Hmmmm didn't know that! Nice feature. LOLOL

I type 83wpm, can you read that fast?? It took me twenty actual minutes to type that response once I sat still.

[nightflier]

Terrence, get a life. I can sit here and debate each and every point you came back with. Your logic doesn't apply, your understanding of the scope of this issue is too narrow, and you are marred by your own interest in this format war. You are splitting hairs. It's clear from everyone else here that they are fed up with this point-for-point debate (mine and yours). We'll never get anywhere and this will go on forever, so I'll be pithy about it:

Fact is, you admit now that your sales figures are stats, so they are indeed estimates. Why don't you just admit that you were wrong about that one? I never once discounted the sales figures, so stop saying I did. And for chrissakes stop splitting hairs over examples and look at the bigger picture. The tanker was an example, of which there are many, that could affect the price of disk as well as player sales. Also your understanding of the internet and how it works is sophomoric - you better leave that alone. There won't be any tearing down and it will evolve to support more traffic - just because you can't understand it, doesn't mean you can discount that. And finally, your ability to buy both types of HD players makes you a far cry from joe6pack - you're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry" and here you are flag-waiving for BR. They're supposed to trust you? I'm only telling people to be careful. This is all just entertainment to you, remember? If that isn't a god-complex statement, I don't know what is. Get a life and stop trying to tell others what they should buy - they can't trust you.

Better yet, why don't you put your reputation where your mouth is. I am willing to wager that both BR & HDDVD will be supplanted. If I'm wrong, I'll come back here and admit it. If it's such a stupid wager and the odds are so far in your favor, why can't you commit to it? Either put up or shut up. Everyone here, including myself, is tired of you incessant self-aggrandizing preaching. So put up or shut up.

[PeruvianSkies]

So if you have no way of knowing if I was doing something else, how can you assume that I was just sitting there?

Does it actually say "replying to thread" when you reply to a thread? Hmmmm didn't know that! Nice feature. LOLOL

I type 83wpm, can you read that fast?? It took me twenty actual minutes to type that response once I sat still.

Yep I can type that fast and yes it does actually tell you when someone is replying to a thread, it's under the WHO'S ONLINE feature. Check into it.

[PeruvianSkies]

Terrence, get a life. I can sit here and debate each and every point you came back with. Your logic doesn't apply, your understanding of the scope of this issue is too narrow, and you are marred by your own interest in this format war. You are splitting hairs. It's clear from everyone else here that they are fed up with this point-for-point debate (mine and yours). We'll never get anywhere and this will go on forever, so I'll be pithy about it:

Fact is, you admit now that your sales figures are stats, so they are indeed estimates. Why don't you just admit that you were wrong about that one? I never once discounted the sales figures, so stop saying I did. And for chrissakes stop splitting hairs over examples and look at the bigger picture. The tanker was an example, of which there are many, that could affect the price of disk as well as player sales. Also your understanding of the internet and how it works is sophomoric - you better leave that alone. There won't be any tearing down and it will evolve to support more traffic - just because you can't understand it, doesn't mean you can discount that. And finally, your ability to buy both types of HD players makes you a far cry from joe6pack - you're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry" and here you are flag-waiving for BR. They're supposed to trust you? I'm only telling people to be careful. This is all just entertainment to you, remember? If that isn't a god-complex statement, I don't know what is. Get a life and stop trying to tell others what they should buy - they can't trust you.

Better yet, why don't you put your reputation where your mouth is. I am willing to wager that both BR & HDDVD will be supplanted. If I'm wrong, I'll come back here and admit it. If it's such a stupid wager and the odds are so far in your favor, why can't you commit to it? Either put up or shut up. Everyone here, including myself, is tired of you incessant self-aggrandizing preaching. So put up or shut up.

I am tired of it and I am still waiting for some comments on my BRAM STOKER remarks, but have yet to get anything back on it. Maybe that's not a bad thing.

[Woochifer]

Fact is, you admit now that your sales figures are stats, so they are indeed estimates. Why don't you just admit that you were wrong about that one?

In an analyst study of the industry where they are trying to gauge the size of the market as a whole, you might be able to say that. But, the straight reporting of the Nielson data is not an estimate. It's a simple tally of point-of-sale transactions, and that's where the weekly rankings and market shares by format come from. The estimates come from those analysts that extrapolate the Nielson data to fill in the blanks, and sites like the Digital Bits, Video Business, and Home Media are not doing that.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Terrence, get a life. I can sit here and debate each and every point you came back with. Your logic doesn't apply, your understanding of the scope of this issue is too narrow, and you are marred by your own interest in this format war. You are splitting hairs. It's clear from everyone else here that they are fed up with this point-for-point debate (mine and yours). We'll never get anywhere and this will go on forever, so I'll be pithy about it:

You thought this up, follow your own suggestion.


Fact is, you admit now that your sales figures are stats, so they are indeed estimates. Why don't you just admit that you were wrong about that one? I never once discounted the sales figures, so stop saying I did. And for chrissakes stop splitting hairs over examples and look at the bigger picture. The tanker was an example, of which there are many, that could affect the price of disk as well as player sales. Also your understanding of the internet and how it works is sophomoric - you better leave that alone. There won't be any tearing down and it will evolve to support more traffic - just because you can't understand it, doesn't mean you can discount that. And finally, your ability to buy both types of HD players makes you a far cry from joe6pack - you're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry" and here you are flag-waiving for BR. They're supposed to trust you? I'm only telling people to be careful. This is all just entertainment to you, remember? If that isn't a god-complex statement, I don't know what is. Get a life and stop trying to tell others what they should buy - they can't trust you.

Hey nightflier, its not my fault that you look at discs in the same way you look at commodities such as oil and gas. That is your fault for attempting to make something so well understood so complex. Players are not traded like oil, pot bellies, or grain. If a shipment get's lost, if we have a hurricane, if there is an earthquake, the cost of players and software remains the same. Did you ever hear any news that the cost of DVD's went up in Los Angeles after the 1994 Northridge earthquake? Or how about in New Oleans after Katrina?

Creepy connection to the industry? If I do, then you have a creepy connection to your job as well.

Alot of people have bought both. Dave right here has both. I know at least a dozen more on AVS who have both. I know at least two dozen more that have both on Bluray.com. Having both just guarantees you access to both camps library of HD movies.

As far as my understanding of the internet, well if it is sophmoric, so is your understanding of the movie business. Well its more like pre-school now that I think of it.


Better yet, why don't you put your reputation where your mouth is. I am willing to wager that both BR & HDDVD will be supplanted. If I'm wrong, I'll come back here and admit it. If it's such a stupid wager and the odds are so far in your favor, why can't you commit to it? Either put up or shut up. Everyone here, including myself, is tired of you incessant self-aggrandizing preaching. So put up or shut up.

You are sounding like a broken record, and in the process boring me. We have already covered this ground, move along

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I am tired of it and I am still waiting for some comments on my BRAM STOKER remarks, but have yet to get anything back on it. Maybe that's not a bad thing.

Sky type guy, just what are your comments regarding Dracuul? I will be glad to address them.

[nightflier]

Wooch,

So lemme get this straight, you're saying that based on a 67% marketshare, people should call it and just buy the BR player? You and I both know that's not enough - if we were Wall Street investors, we'd stay clear of those odds - so why should consumers do otherwise? If you were a BBall coach and you were behind 20-40 at half-time, would you tell your team to throw in the towel? If you were a general and your were outmanned 1-2 on the battlefield, would you give up? Ever heard of Hannibal? Ceasar? Wellington? Rommel? They stayed in it because there were other factors at play besides the numbers.

And how much of a share of the movie market are BR & HDDVD? Does anyone know? Let's say it's 5%. That means that BR accounts for about 3% of all movie sales? And you're going to tell me that people should jump in with both feet? Ouch. And you're telling me that this 3% is not in danger from VOD, SD & HD downloads? Or maybe you're going to say that that 3% can stand up to all the unknowns that SirT is so quick to dismiss?

And even if HD is 15% of the market, that's only 8% for BR. Still not enough to bet the farm on, if you ask me.

Everyone is so afraid to consider the political situation, but I think I need to mention it again. Some nasty stuff is going down in Myanmar, in case anybody cares to look that up. We're still saber rattling with China, too. We're on the verge of blowing another country in the gulf to kingdom come - how will that go over in Indonesia or Malaysia where Sony and Toshiba factories are located? How much longer can we last in Iraq and Afghanistan? Who's going to foot the bill for this war when the troops come home and the loansharks come knocking? Are we going to pay for that with our housing boom profits? No, we're going to pay for that with taxes that will affect what else people can buy. What if Hillary (bless her heart) becomes president - how will that affect the economy, the war, the CPI? Those are unknowns that will each have an impact on buying trends. And those precious Nielson ratings will let you know about it, well after it's a economic history.

It seems like the only people that are cheering on BR here are those people who have already made that purchase. In the case of SirT, he's bought both, but he can easily switch if he needs to - should we trust him? Most of us regular folks won't be able to buy both. I've got money set aside for one player and some disks, not two - I hardly think that's the exception.

I say wait it out - the lead is not enough yet.

[kexodusc]

I bet I can read and type faster than you.
It'd be a treat if you just read what you typed...

[nightflier]

You thought this up, follow your own suggestion.

No I didn't bring it up, it's just clear from what others are posting. It was brought up by someone else. Get your facts straight.


Players are not traded like oil, pot bellies, or grain. If a shipment get's lost, if we have a hurricane, if there is an earthquake, the cost of players and software remains the same. Did you ever hear any news that the cost of DVD's went up in Los Angeles after the 1994 Northridge earthquake? Or how about in New Oleans after Katrina?

What a moronic thing to say. Taxes went up after Northridge, but we're talking about a small event and that's not what I'm talking about. Catastrophic events in countries that produce vital components, including political events and war will indeed have an impact. Are you going to tell me that the events of Sept.11, 2001 didn't have an impact on our economy? How many people went out and bought a DVD player on Sept. 12th? Technology sales were way down that holiday season. Likewise, if a tanker full of a specific unique parts for HD players sunk, it could also have an impact. If the housing market goes completely bust, people will have less to spend. If the price of oil doubles, it will be more expensive to ship parts and disks from the far east. All these things can have an impact. Stop trying to split hairs over this - you know I'm right about that.


...then you have a creepy connection to your job as well.

Care to explain that one?


Alot of people have bought both. Dave right here has both. I know at least a dozen more on AVS who have both. I know at least two dozen more that have both on Bluray.com. Having both just guarantees you access to both camps library of HD movies.

Stop with that already. It's just making a mountain out of a molehill. The vast majority of consumers are not going to buy both. You know that just as well as everyone else here.


As far as my understanding of the internet, well if it is sophmoric, so is your understanding of the movie business. Well its more like pre-school now that I think of it.

Well is that your best shot this time? You still know didly about the Internet and how it can support higher capacities, and this isn't the forum for that anyhow, so just drop it.


You are sounding like a broken record, and in the process boring me. We have already covered this ground, move along

No, the broken record is you that won't commit. If you're so sure about BR, then say so. Put up or shut up.

[Mr Peabody]

I don't know if SirTtT works for Blu-ray.com or not, I could really care less, if he does...he does and if not, well then he rips stuff from their forum them. Whatever the case on this whole BRAM STOKER's DRACULA Blu-ray the bottom line is this: majority of fans and people that have seen it are not impressed and whether or not it's approved means very little if it's causing this much of a big deal. Obviously something is out-of-whack. Either a lot of people and fans are wrong and their memory of this film is bogus and they never really saw the film the way it should be or this new Approved Transfer is junk.

Is this post before you took your medication? It seems a bit out of sync with your previous posts. Dr. P and Mr. Sky

I don't see anything wrong with bringing information from other sites or news outlets to AR, that's how information is shared and we learn. But it's a different thing if some one poses as something they aren't.

The fact that the director approved a project is very important. How can you say it isn't? Making a film is like an art and the artists intent is the most important thing. I would think a true film buff would want the artists purest intent rather than a product some one tweaked because they second guessed the finished product.

How would you feel if a Mod came in and changed the color and font on your moniker? This pales to the magnatude of a film but maybe you will get the idea.

[PeruvianSkies]

Is this post before you took your medication? It seems a bit out of sync with your previous posts. Dr. P and Mr. Sky

I don't see anything wrong with bringing information from other sites or news outlets to AR, that's how information is shared and we learn. But it's a different thing if some one poses as something they aren't.

The fact that the director approved a project is very important. How can you say it isn't? Making a film is like an art and the artists intent is the most important thing. I would think a true film buff would want the artists purest intent rather than a product some one tweaked because they second guessed the finished product.

How would you feel if a Mod came in and changed the color and font on your moniker? This pales to the magnatude of a film but maybe you will get the idea.

What I am suggesting is that maybe this 'Approved Transfer' is flawed in some way, shape, or form. All I can say is that it seems rather odd that many people are complaining about the same issues and it's odd that something like this would happen. Rarely has there been a title to hit the format with this much backlash early on. Sure it happens, but what's interesting this time is that it's suppose to be Directors Approved, although really it's approved by a Rep from Zoetrope and that's not necessarily the same thing. The transfer on Coppola's ONE FROM THE HEART was superb on DVD, so what gives on this new transfer for BRAM STOKER? I don't know. I wish there were more answers than questions at this point. I know what I saw in the theater, others do as well, and this new transfer does not seem to match that.

[PeruvianSkies]

Sky type guy, just what are your comments regarding Dracuul? I will be glad to address them.

Read.....this.......thread......

[Woochifer]

So lemme get this straight, you're saying that based on a 67% marketshare, people should call it and just buy the BR player?

Try reading my response again. I'm not recommending that people buy a Blu-ray player. But, if someone really wants a HD optical player, the Blu-ray player is by far the safer bet. Betamax started losing studio and retail support not long after their market share dipped below a 2-to-1 deficit, which cemented the format's demise. History has proven that consumers and retailers alike will not support multiple formats indefinitely. The weaker format will always get relegated to niche status or disappear altogether.


You and I both know that's not enough - if we were Wall Street investors, we'd stay clear of those odds - so why should consumers do otherwise? If you were a BBall coach and you were behind 20-40 at half-time, would you tell your team to throw in the towel? If you were a general and your were outmanned 1-2 on the battlefield, would you give up? Ever heard of Hannibal? Ceasar? Wellington? Rommel? They stayed in it because there were other factors at play besides the numbers.

If you believe that applies here, then put your money where your mouth is and invest in HD-DVD. I'll continue to sit things out.


And how much of a share of the movie market are BR & HDDVD? Does anyone know? Let's say it's 5%. That means that BR accounts for about 3% of all movie sales? And you're going to tell me that people should jump in with both feet? Ouch. And you're telling me that this 3% is not in danger from VOD, SD & HD downloads? Or maybe you're going to say that that 3% can stand up to all the unknowns that SirT is so quick to dismiss?

And even if HD is 15% of the market, that's only 8% for BR. Still not enough to bet the farm on, if you ask me.

Considering the pains you take in trying to dispute the Nielson numbers, are you saying that anyone should trust this bunch of hypotheticals over a dataset with a 60% sample?


Everyone is so afraid to consider the political situation, but I think I need to mention it again. Some nasty stuff is going down in Myanmar, in case anybody cares to look that up. We're still saber rattling with China, too. We're on the verge of blowing another country in the gulf to kingdom come - how will that go over in Indonesia or Malaysia where Sony and Toshiba factories are located? How much longer can we last in Iraq and Afghanistan? Who's going to foot the bill for this war when the troops come home and the loansharks come knocking? Are we going to pay for that with our housing boom profits? No, we're going to pay for that with taxes that will affect what else people can buy. What if Hillary (bless her heart) becomes president - how will that affect the economy, the war, the CPI? Those are unknowns that will each have an impact on buying trends. And those precious Nielson ratings will let you know about it, well after it's a economic history.

And what does Myanmar have to do with the validity of point-of-sale data collected inside of U.S. retail stores? Unless you can prove that deteriorating economic and market conditions would disproportionately affect Blu-ray more than HD-DVD, this flight of fancy analogy doesn't apply to much of anything.


It seems like the only people that are cheering on BR here are those people who have already made that purchase. In the case of SirT, he's bought both, but he can easily switch if he needs to - should we trust him? Most of us regular folks won't be able to buy both. I've got money set aside for one player and some disks, not two - I hardly think that's the exception.

Cheering on? Hardly. From the beginning, I've said that I want one unified format, and absent a unified format, I want either HD-DVD or Blu-ray to decisively win. And with the current market structure, there simply no way for HD-DVD to accomplish that. It will take a major structural shift on the magnitude of Paramount/Dreamworks' announcement for HD-DVD to even come close to pulling even with Blu-ray in overall market share. If the market structure stays the same, Blu-ray wins or some hybrid approach will win. It's that simple.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

No I didn't bring it up, it's just clear from what others are posting. It was brought up by someone else. Get your facts straight.

You continually say that I am getting some benefit from this, just what is this benefit?


What a moronic thing to say. Taxes went up after Northridge, but we're talking about a small event and that's not what I'm talking about. Catastrophic events in countries that produce vital components, including political events and war will indeed have an impact. Are you going to tell me that the events of Sept.11, 2001 didn't have an impact on our economy? How many people went out and bought a DVD player on Sept. 12th? Technology sales were way down that holiday season. Likewise, if a tanker full of a specific unique parts for HD players sunk, it could also have an impact. If the housing market goes completely bust, people will have less to spend. If the price of oil doubles, it will be more expensive to ship parts and disks from the far east. All these things can have an impact. Stop trying to split hairs over this - you know I'm right about that.

You act like the CE manufacturers don't know how to make a backup plan. I wonder how they ever managed to get the DVD platform to market. I am sure all of these condition existed then, but they seem to manage to get players on the shelves and the discs replicated

Geeze, those stupid CE manufacturers don't know how to adjust their sales forecasts after a major catastrophe. I am sure they are stupid enough to have only one part supplier supplying parts for their players with no contingency plan whatsover. Geeze, I wonder how these stupid CE companies got VHS and Compact disc into the market place. You know with inflation running rampant, didn't we have a hostage crises during its existance? I wonder if everyone stop buying players when that happen. Oh, and after the earthquake in Los Angeles, I am sure those guys in Peoria stopped buying players all of a sudden. I am sure that everyone stop living life after September 11. Buying slowed down, but didn't stop. Somehow players made it to the shelves after 9/11, I don't know how they did it. Maybe they just waived the magic wan and they appear out of thin air. Don't they have major floods in China? Didn't a tsunami happen in Indonesia? I guess they did, but people still bought DVD's and DVD players. Hmmmm... humans just don't know how to adjust.

(knocks on nightfliers noggin) Hey, they don't ship discs to the far east, the far east produces its own discs. There are disc replication plants all over the world.


Care to explain that one?

Care to explain thisyou're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry"

I work in that industry. So if I have a creepy connection to it, then you have a creepy connection to the industry you work in. Just that simple.




Stop with that already. It's just making a mountain out of a molehill. The vast majority of consumers are not going to buy both. You know that just as well as everyone else here.

Oh, tweaked your nose a bit here. They do make dual format players don't they? Oh, maybe you didn't know that, which is not out of line for you.

Talk about making a mountain out of a mole hill. I wonder if that ship full of HD DVD players ever made it to Best Buy? Did they dry them off after retrieving them from Davey jones locker? Sheesh!




Well is that your best shot this time? You still know didly about the Internet and how it can support higher capacities, and this isn't the forum for that anyhow, so just drop it.

You do the same with the movie industry since you don't know jack about it.




No, the broken record is you that won't commit. If you're so sure about BR, then say so. Put up or shut up.

Kex, Wooch, somebody hit the needle, the record is stuck and I cannot get my groove on.....

[GMichael]

Bump. Ooops. What was that?

[Feanor]

Try reading my response again. I'm not recommending that people buy a Blu-ray player. But, if someone really wants a HD optical player, the Blu-ray player is by far the safer bet. Betamax started losing studio and retail support not long after their market share dipped below a 2-to-1 deficit, which cemented the format's demise. History has proven that consumers and retailers alike will not support multiple formats indefinitely. The weaker format will always get relegated to niche status or disappear altogether.
...

Technically the best, I mean. Sometime that happens, e.g. cassette beat 8-track. Sometime is doesn't, e.g. VHS beat Beta.

I guess Blu-ray is better (?), but as a somebody who bought Beta, I'll be waiting waiting for the clear winnner.

[GMichael]

Technically the best, I mean. Sometime that happens, e.g. cassette beat 8-track. Sometime is doesn't, e.g. VHS beat Beta.

I guess Blu-ray is better (?), but as a somebody who bought Beta, I'll be waiting waiting for the clear winnner.

As someone with no gaming consol, I've decided to get one that comes with an HD format.
Two birds, one stone.

[L.J.]

As someone with no gaming consol, I've decided to get one that comes with an HD format.
Two birds, one stone.

Yup, make sense. I knew I was getting a PS3, so I welcomed Bluray with open arms. If Bluray does fail, I'll still have a very useful machine and the ability to still play my Bluray library. I should be at about 50 BR by the end of the year.

I know that's nothing compared to SirT's 200, but you gotta start somewhere :arf:

[drseid]

Technically the best, I mean. Sometime that happens, e.g. cassette beat 8-track. Sometime is doesn't, e.g. VHS beat Beta.

I guess Blu-ray is better (?), but as a somebody who bought Beta, I'll be waiting waiting for the clear winnner.

No problem waiting it out, but both formats are great options right now, IMO.

I wouldn't classify BR as "better," or at least not IMO... I like the interactive in-movie capabilities (and online fuctionality) much better with HD DVD. This, of course, is subjective and many may not even use the features or feel otherwise. And studio coverage is pretty even, but the older classic films I personally enjoy have been more available on HD DVD (with more of the newer blockbuster type movie releases on BR).

Both formats have their pluses and minuses... I kind of wish they would have gotten together and made a "super" format that had the best of both worlds and was supported by all of the studios. That said, whichever "wins," (if any) I feel lucky to be able to watch high quality HD movies at home with killer sound. I kind of felt the same feeling of initial excitement when I watched my first couple of DVDs (even if they were pretty lame titles like "Animation Greats" and "Tropical Rain Forests").

I still believe both formats can survive side by side, and will. Next year will either produce a "winner," (if so, I am wrong) or create a compromise (like dual format players being more widely adopted at a much lower cost than they are now with better functionality). We will see. Regardless, I think it is an exciting time in the HT arena, and I, for one, am enjoying every minute of it... "format wars" be damned.

---Dave

[GMichael]

I can't remember the last time I bought a DVD. I don't want to spend more money on a format that is not HD. So I've been waiting........... and waiting......... and waiting.
Ya know what? I'm tired of waiting. And my butt hurts from sitting on this frickin' fence. I'm getting down. Win or loose, I'll have HD. And some games to play.

[L.J.]

I can't remember the last time I bought a DVD. I don't want to spend more money on a format that is not HD. So I've been waiting........... and waiting......... and waiting.
Ya know what? I'm tired of waiting. And my butt hurts from sitting on this frickin' fence. I'm getting down. Win or loose, I'll have HD. And some games to play.

I'm guilty of still buying animation on DVD. That DBZ season 3 was just calling to me :cornut:

Most of my recent DVD purchases are for my kids to watch in their bedroom at night time. I average about 2 BR per month, sometimes more but it depends on what's being released. These next few months should be good with so many titles being released. I'm gonna get myself in trouble. "But honey, the Spider-man set is for the kids" :lol:

[drseid]

I'm guilty of still buying animation on DVD. That DBZ season 3 was just calling to me :cornut:

Most of my recent DVD purchases are for my kids to watch in their bedroom at night time. I average about 2 BR per month, sometimes more but it depends on what's being released. These next few months should be good with so many titles being released. I'm gonna get myself in trouble. "But honey, the Spider-man set is for the kids" :lol:

Oh, I am guilty of that too... My latest purchase was the second volume of the "Air" anime series.

As for the upcoming Spidey BR releases... I am working on coming up with some excuses of my own. Definitely looking forward to those (I don't *just* buy classics like Casablanca). ;-)

---Dave

[nightflier]

History has proven that consumers and retailers alike will not support multiple formats indefinitely. The weaker format will always get relegated to niche status or disappear altogether.

Unless they both become niche and a third format takes over. SACD and DVD-A are a good example of products that, despite their technical/qualitative superiority, both became niche (at best) at a time that downloads and personal music players overtook the attention of the buying public. By the way, Sir T., I would call that a striking similarity.


If you believe that applies here, then put your money where your mouth is and invest in HD-DVD. I'll continue to sit things out.

I have my eye on an upconverting DVD player. The fact that the HD formats don't support SACD is a problem for me and I don't have the time for console games right now so the PS3 is out. If you put a gun to my head, I suppose I would buy HDDVD because I like their catalog better, but it really is a toss-up for me right now. I'm going to wait it out some more.


Considering the pains you take in trying to dispute the Nielson numbers, are you saying that anyone should trust this bunch of hypotheticals over a dataset with a 60% sample?

OK, before we go any further with this line of reasoning, what percentage of the movie market is HD? Anybody care to fill us in?


And what does Myanmar have to do with the validity of point-of-sale data collected inside of U.S. retail stores? Unless you can prove that deteriorating economic and market conditions would disproportionately affect Blu-ray more than HD-DVD, this flight of fancy analogy doesn't apply to much of anything.

No, if you read my post more carefully, I didn't say they would affect point-of-sale data collected here. What I said was that catastrophic events can have an impact this holiday season because they provide assembly facilities and parts to meet demand. Didn't everybody pretty much agree earlier in this thread that this season was crucial for both formats? Myanmar, Malaysia, and Indonesia have large manufacturing and assembly plants for western electronic goods. Even India and China outsource to those countries.


Cheering on? Hardly.

I was referring to Pixel and SirT.


From the beginning, I've said that I want one unified format, and absent a unified format, I want either HD-DVD or Blu-ray to decisively win. And with the current market structure, there simply no way for HD-DVD to accomplish that. It will take a major structural shift on the magnitude of Paramount/Dreamworks' announcement for HD-DVD to even come close to pulling even with Blu-ray in overall market share. If the market structure stays the same, Blu-ray wins or some hybrid approach will win. It's that simple.

I respect that opinion a whole lot more. It takes into consideration other factors that may have an impact. It's also a position you've taken without really having made a purchase yet - so you don't have a vested interest. You see the numbers, you figure it's 2-1 and acknowledge that things aren't going well with HDDVD, and you're careful enough to not antagonize people too much on the topic. Perhaps most importantly, as I've read in your other posts, you are a bit more humble and you don't make others feel like simpletons.

And if I may, I still think that the resilience of the HDDVD camp in light of all the negative sales figures, is reason for concern. For example, Microsoft spends millions on research into future technologies and trend forecasting. They are still in the HDDVD camp, and so I'm left wondering what do they know that we don't? We can speculate, but we really don't know. Likewise, I am confident that the problem with internet bandwidth can be addressed with a combination of software and hardware upgrades and that the industries that stand to profit from this will make it happen, sooner rather than later. I know from my own experience that on the software side there are substantial advances being developed today and these will be implemented over the next two years.

Anyhow, it is my opinion, that it's still too early to call a winner. Anyone who does, is flag-waiving because they have a vested interest.

[nightflier]

You continually say that I am getting some benefit from this, just what is this benefit?

You said it was good for your wallet. If I misunderstood that, you're welcome to explain that further.


You act like the CE manufacturers don't know how to make a backup plan.... Hmmmm... humans just don't know how to adjust.

If you would bother to read my post, I said that catastrophic events can have an impact during this holiday season. If you don't believe that, consider what would happen if our government, in it's infinite wisdom, were to bomb Iran in the next couple of months. Are you going to tell me that this act and the events that will follow will not have an impact on this industry? Let's not forget the cozy relationship that China has built with Iran and it's volatile neighbors in the last few years. We'd be pissing in their backyard.


(knocks on nightfliers noggin) Hey, they don't ship discs to the far east, the far east produces its own discs. There are disc replication plants all over the world.

And especially in those countries where our government is acting like the 800 lb gorilla.


Care to explain this you're an oddball with a creepy connection to "the industry"

Oddball - because you have enough money to flip sides between the formats if you feel like it. Most consumers don't.

Creepy connection - because your relationship to this industry is too cozy and does not allow you to see much outside of it.


...you have a creepy connection to the industry you work in...

But we're talking about the BR/HDDVD format war, and I don't have a creepy connection to that industry. Let's stay on topic here.


Oh, tweaked your nose a bit here. They do make dual format players don't they? Oh, maybe you didn't know that, which is not out of line for you.

Nose just fine - no need to claim victory points. Did you want a little gold start to go with that one, Terrence? If I remember right, the LG dual format player is being outsold by single format players in appalling numbers. Don't know about the new Samsung one, but the price point of these players is high and the market segment they are trying to appeal to, may not be there. Of course, that's just my take on it, I'm sure your industry insiders can give us some hard numbers to compare with.


Talk about making a mountain out of a mole hill.

Look, just face it, the vast majority of consumers will not buy one player for each format, it's just not going to happen, so drop it already. If you're so bent on disproving that, let's see some hard numbers to back that claim - not just your 2-3 friends who just happen to be reviewers too so they need them for their work - they are not your typical consumer. Granted, there will be people with game consoles who may have both, but what will those numbers be? Still not even close to people buying into a single format. Show me some numbers or drop it already. Put up or shut up.


I wonder if that ship full of HD DVD players ever made it to Best Buy? Did they dry them off after retrieving them from Davey jones locker? Sheesh!

Is this really the best you got? You want another gold start for that one, little Terrence?


Kex, Wooch, somebody hit the needle, the record is stuck and I cannot get my groove on.....

You need your friends to help you in the playground? 'Come on Terrence, let's see you commit to something on your own. State that if BR doesn't win this you'll come back here and say so.

'Come on, you know you want to....

Think of all the gold stars you'll get... Everyone at your feet, begging to be blessed with your wisdom.... Imagine it, and it will be so...

Sir Terrence the Terrible, the plumed little green knight that could...

[musicman1999]

Nightflier

Think of the internet as a pipeline,that cable that carries your internet is capable of handling x-amount of bandwidth.Now if your needs go up to 15 times x then you need to replace the cable,software or hardware won't do it you need to use cable capable of the bandwidth and that will be a massive, expensive undertaking.

bill

[GMichael]

Nightflier

Think of the internet as a pipeline,that cable that carries your internet is capable of handling x-amount of bandwidth.Now if your needs go up to 15 times x then you need to replace the cable,software or hardware won't do it you need to use cable capable of the bandwidth and that will be a massive, expensive undertaking.

bill

Can't you just rub pixie snott on them?

[nightflier]

Think of the internet as a pipeline,that cable that carries your internet is capable of handling x-amount of bandwidth.Now if your needs go up to 15 times x then you need to replace the cable,software or hardware won't do it you need to use cable capable of the bandwidth and that will be a massive, expensive undertaking.

Think of how much MP3 compression has improved in the last few years. Also consider that movie downloads don't need to include all the extras and that this will one day be selectable by the consumer. The point is, there is a tremendous amount of research being done to improve video compression algorithms, reduce congestion (especially at the routers and switches), simplify content and reducing bloat, improve searches (web 3.0 technologies) and aggregate downloads (reducing distances with bitorrent-type technologies). I'm more on the the software side, but I also know that much of the hardware that makes up the internet is being upgraded and that as more internet traffic is transfered to the wireless internet, that congestion on both sides will be reduced.

It certainly won't mean that you'll have 15Mb/s download speeds by x-mas, but it's on the horizon. More importantly, these advancements are being developed for SD video today, so they will also play a role in satisfying the needs of consumers who don't yet care that it's not HD (think all the iMovie owners, for example). When HD is ready to be offered for download, it will be delivered via the same medium and the consumers won't have to upgrade anything on their ends. This is key.

[bobsticks]

Nightflier

Think of the internet as a pipeline,that cable that carries your internet is capable of handling x-amount of bandwidth.Now if your needs go up to 15 times x then you need to replace the cable,software or hardware won't do it you need to use cable capable of the bandwidth and that will be a massive, expensive undertaking.

bill


...and someone needs to figure out who's gonna be laying the new cable so I/we can invest on the groundfloor. I need a good buy and hold. Wouldn't odds be good that it ain't gonna be Comcast?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

You said it was good for your wallet. If I misunderstood that, you're welcome to explain that further.

If you would bother to read my post!!




If you would bother to read my post, I said that catastrophic events can have an impact during this holiday season. If you don't believe that, consider what would happen if our government, in it's infinite wisdom, were to bomb Iran in the next couple of months. Are you going to tell me that this act and the events that will follow will not have an impact on this industry? Let's not forget the cozy relationship that China has built with Iran and it's volatile neighbors in the last few years. We'd be pissing in their backyard.

This is stupid. The betamax was introduced to the market in 1975, and VHS was intoduced in 1976. We were in the midst of very high oil prices and just getting over the oil embargo. Both formats came to the market regardless of the crises, one went on to own the consumer market, the other the professional market. I am sure that the chance of catastrophic events(like a war for oil) was very real back then, but it didn't stop people from purchasing players and tapes.

The laserdisc was introduced in 1978, a year before the Iran hostage affair. While it remained a niche product, it made it through the hostage crises, the latter part of the oil embargo, various hurricaines, world crises and everything else.

The CD format was introduced to the market in 1982 just before christmas. There was a chance that the format could have succumbed to a world disaster during that holiday season. It didn't happen, and the CD is still here today. It lasted through many recessions and natural disaster throughout its 26 year history.

The DVD format was brought to the market in the US in early 1997. A year later it was in full competition with DIVX, and both could have crashed and burned together. We had recessions, and the threat of war always somewhere on the planet, but DVD emerged the winner, and is still around.

There has always been a consistant and persistant chance that a major calamity could have destroyed all of these technologies chance in the consumer market, but it didn't happen. If something did happen, you can bet you best dress that the CE manufacturers have a backup plan. Disc replication is a regional thing. If a earthquake hits the pioneer replication plant in the greater Los Angeles area, then it is likely the replication plant in Tara Haute could pick up the chore.



Oddball - because you have enough money to flip sides between the formats if you feel like it. Most consumers don't.

Being able to purchase players for both format isn't odd, your whole perspective on this is.


Creepy connection - because your relationship to this industry is too cozy and does not allow you to see much outside of it.

And your perspective is so far out of the movie industry, you know nothing about it, even on a basic level. I mean come on, players fall into the sea, and all of a sudden the price goes up. Right, what are we talking here bluray pork bellies? HD oil?




But we're talking about the BR/HDDVD format war, and I don't have a creepy connection to that industry. Let's stay on topic here.

Aside from being an employee of a bluray exclusive studio, and a owner of player from each format, I have no more connection to BR/HD DVD than you do. So the creepy comment doesn't apply here as well. You telling me to stay on topic is quite funny Mr China and Iran. Mr Catastrophe..(rolls eyes)




Nose just fine - no need to claim victory points. Did you want a little gold start to go with that one, Terrence? If I remember right, the LG dual format player is being outsold by single format players in appalling numbers. Don't know about the new Samsung one, but the price point of these players is high and the market segment they are trying to appeal to, may not be there. Of course, that's just my take on it, I'm sure your industry insiders can give us some hard numbers to compare with.

What the heck is a gold start?

What kind of take could a person have when they don't even know the basics of the movie industry, movie retail, disc replication, player manufacturing, product distribution, or the market segment that any player appeals to. Jeeze, you are the verbalrectumbule that believes when a shipment of players is lost, player prices go up. You are the last person I would come to for analysis on this particular subject.




Look, just face it, the vast majority of consumers will not buy one player for each format, it's just not going to happen, so drop it already. If you're so bent on disproving that, let's see some hard numbers to back that claim - not just your 2-3 friends who just happen to be reviewers too so they need them for their work - they are not your typical consumer. Granted, there will be people with game consoles who may have both, but what will those numbers be? Still not even close to people buying into a single format. Show me some numbers or drop it already. Put up or shut up.

The vast majority will not have to buy a player from each format, the war will be long over before that would happen. Where did I say that the people I know who bought both formats are reviewers? Dave right here is not a review, he has both. I never mention what they did for a living did I Mr make crap up?

Why would Samsung want to release a dual format player if there was no market for them? Apparently there is, or they would be wasting their investment. LG player is not selling becuase it is not a certified HD DVD player. That doesn't mean there isn't a market for them, especially now.




Is this really the best you got? You want another gold start for that one, little Terrence?

What's a gold start? Is that the same thing as a BR pork belly? Or a HD crude?




You need your friends to help you in the playground? 'Come on Terrence, let's see you commit to something on your own. State that if BR doesn't win this you'll come back here and say so.

'Come on, you know you want to....

Some one throw this record away, its broken


Think of all the gold stars you'll get... Everyone at your feet, begging to be blessed with your wisdom.... Imagine it, and it will be so...

Sir Terrence the Terrible, the plumed little green knight that could...

I would rather have a new Porsche or a new Honda Insight thanks Nightflier the BR pork belly investor.

Fox has been late releasing their titles to retailers, does that mean the prices go up to $36.99 per disc now?

[PeruvianSkies]

The laserdisc was introduced in 1978, a year before the Iran hostage affair. While it remained a niche product, it made it through the hostage crises, the latter part of the oil embargo, various hurricaines, world crises and everything else.

The CD format was introduced to the market in 1982 just before christmas. There was a chance that the format could have succumbed to a world disaster during that holiday season. It didn't happen, and the CD is still here today. It lasted through many recessions and natural disaster throughout its 26 year history.

The DVD format was brought to the market in the US in early 1997. A year later it was in full competition with DIVX, and both could have crashed and burned together. We had recessions, and the threat of war always somewhere on the planet, but DVD emerged the winner, and is still around.


DVD's arrived in 1997, one year before Gus van Sant remade PSYCHO and still somehow humanity survived.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Think of how much MP3 compression has improved in the last few years. Also consider that movie downloads don't need to include all the extras and that this will one day be selectable by the consumer. The point is, there is a tremendous amount of research being done to improve video compression algorithms, reduce congestion (especially at the routers and switches), simplify content and reducing bloat, improve searches (web 3.0 technologies) and aggregate downloads (reducing distances with bitorrent-type technologies). I'm more on the the software side, but I also know that much of the hardware that makes up the internet is being upgraded and that as more internet traffic is transfered to the wireless internet, that congestion on both sides will be reduced.

It certainly won't mean that you'll have 15Mb/s download speeds by x-mas, but it's on the horizon. More importantly, these advancements are being developed for SD video today, so they will also play a role in satisfying the needs of consumers who don't yet care that it's not HD (think all the iMovie owners, for example). When HD is ready to be offered for download, it will be delivered via the same medium and the consumers won't have to upgrade anything on their ends. This is key.

Didn't you state that HD movies could be availble in two years? Well, a pipeline developed for SD will not be enough to carry 1080p(even with VC-1) and lossless audio with different languages. HD video with MP3 sound will not attract alot of folks, not to mention the cost of HD cable which is already turning off alot of folks. Advances in video compression still will not allow a HD bitstream to fit on the DVD platform. Dts HD nor DD+ can compress audio enough to fit the DVD platform either. The bitrates of VOD are currently comparable to DVD, except you only get stereo sound.

[PeruvianSkies]

Anyone know how to get DTS 5.1 on my iPod for movies??? j/k.

btw...the link that Sir TtT provided for the blu-ray site doesn't work, it only takes you to a login page.

[Woochifer]

Unless they both become niche and a third format takes over. SACD and DVD-A are a good example of products that, despite their technical/qualitative superiority, both became niche (at best) at a time that downloads and personal music players overtook the attention of the buying public. By the way, Sir T., I would call that a striking similarity.

Discussing who's winning the HD-DVD and Blu-ray format war does not exclude the possibility of both formats failing. Among the possible outcomes for th two formats, right now, the only scenario outside the rhelm of possibility is HD-DVD winning the format war outright, which is exactly why I would opt for Blu-ray if I was going to buy a HD optical player. But, also the SACD/DVD-A analogy does not hold up for reasons that I've spelled out many times before on this board.


OK, before we go any further with this line of reasoning, what percentage of the movie market is HD? Anybody care to fill us in?

The info's out there, but I don't bother looking it up because it's irrelevant to any discussion of Blu-ray v. HD-DVD. Right now, there is no format war with DVD -- the market comparison with DVD is just as irrelevant now as DVD v. VHS was in 1998. When/if the market for HD optical discs picks up, then the market share comparison with DVD becomes more relevant.


No, if you read my post more carefully, I didn't say they would affect point-of-sale data collected here. What I said was that catastrophic events can have an impact this holiday season because they provide assembly facilities and parts to meet demand. Didn't everybody pretty much agree earlier in this thread that this season was crucial for both formats? Myanmar, Malaysia, and Indonesia have large manufacturing and assembly plants for western electronic goods. Even India and China outsource to those countries.

Like I said before, your doomsday scenario applies [i]only[/] if it can be proven that these events collectively impact one format more than the other. Otherwise, it's nothing more than political soapbox fodder that makes for off-top conversation and speculation, but nothing pertaining to how HD-DVD stacks up against Blu-ray.


And if I may, I still think that the resilience of the HDDVD camp in light of all the negative sales figures, is reason for concern. For example, Microsoft spends millions on research into future technologies and trend forecasting. They are still in the HDDVD camp, and so I'm left wondering what do they know that we don't? We can speculate, but we really don't know. Likewise, I am confident that the problem with internet bandwidth can be addressed with a combination of software and hardware upgrades and that the industries that stand to profit from this will make it happen, sooner rather than later. I know from my own experience that on the software side there are substantial advances being developed today and these will be implemented over the next two years.

Like I said, Blu-ray continues holding most of the advantages. Any scenario that vaults HD-DVD into a sustainable lead relies on outside forces. The scenarios that support Blu-ray are already unfolding. One scenario requires speculation and guessing, the other requires no more than a continuation of trends that have been holding steady for the past 10 months (e.g., HD-DVD has not outsold Blu-ray in any week since December of last year).

[PeruvianSkies]

Man, I sure appreciate your fervor and tenacity in dealing with this particular thread, that being said you may as well save your breathe (or in this case fingers from typing) because you are dealing with individuals who refuse to be proven wrong about their opinions and more importantly, even if proven wrong would never admit to it anyway. The end result is that they suck the fun out of this site, if it was ever fun to begin with, I guess that's a matter of personal opinion or maybe fact...depends on who you ask. Peace bro.

[Woochifer]

Man, I sure appreciate your fervor and tenacity in dealing with this particular thread, that being said you may as well save your breathe (or in this case fingers from typing) because you are dealing with individuals who refuse to be proven wrong about their opinions and more importantly, even if proven wrong would never admit to it anyway. The end result is that they suck the fun out of this site, if it was ever fun to begin with, I guess that's a matter of personal opinion or maybe fact...depends on who you ask. Peace bro.

Well, given that you're chiming in on this thread, I presume that you're including yourself among these "individuals"? :lol:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Man, I sure appreciate your fervor and tenacity in dealing with this particular thread, that being said you may as well save your breathe (or in this case fingers from typing) because you are dealing with individuals who refuse to be proven wrong about their opinions and more importantly, even if proven wrong would never admit to it anyway. The end result is that they suck the fun out of this site, if it was ever fun to begin with, I guess that's a matter of personal opinion or maybe fact...depends on who you ask. Peace bro.

Oh no, Don't get this twisted. I am waiting to be proved wrong. It just isn't happening in this thread at all. Part of the problem is the lack of proof, and alot of off topic blather that has nothing to do with the topic.

I am going just going say I am wrong just because you and Nightflier want me too? Nope. If you are going to prove me wrong, you will have to work to do so, no freebie here.

[PeruvianSkies]

Well, given that you're chiming in on this thread, I presume that you're including yourself among these "individuals"? :lol:

Yeah, that makes sense...you're gonna have to do better than that if you are trying to insult me, that's pretty pedestrian stuff, then again that's on par for you anyway. I can chime in wherever I please, this is a free forum, you do the same.

[PeruvianSkies]

Oh no, Don't get this twisted. I am waiting to be proved wrong. It just isn't happening in this thread at all. Part of the problem is the lack of proof, and alot of off topic blather that has nothing to do with the topic.

I am going just going say I am wrong just because you and Nightflier want me too? Nope. If you are going to prove me wrong, you will have to work to do so, no freebie here.

Oh I get it, you can twist around things on others but you don't like when it's being done to you...well, hmmm that just isn't fair now is it? You still didn't comment on anything that I said about BRAM STOKER on Blu-ray or what others have been saying in general about the Blu-ray being a disaster. I thought you could shed some insider light on it. So how about YOU do some work.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Oh I get it, you can twist around things on others but you don't like when it's being done to you...well, hmmm that just isn't fair now is it? You still didn't comment on anything that I said about BRAM STOKER on Blu-ray or what others have been saying in general about the Blu-ray being a disaster. I thought you could shed some insider light on it. So how about YOU do some work.


From what I read it looks like you and nightflier are doing the twisting.

As far as Bram stroker. Mr Coppola did not approve the Laserdisc, DVD or the superbit of this title. The only approval he has made is to the bluray copy. The bluray copy is what he wanted his film to look like. So any comparison between bluray, DVD, Superbit or LD is no comparison.

The DVD was tweaked for that format. The LD was tweaked for that format. The superbit version was tweaked for that format. But none of these was tweaked by either Mr. Coppola himself, not Zoetrope studios. It was done by Sony pictures themselves.

The BR is the definitive version of this film, and cannot be compared to anything other version on video.

Now if you don't believe a damn thing I say, here is a link to Hometheaterforum.com, and you can read what Robert Harris has to say about it. He knows more about film, film history, and film perservation than you will in your lifetime.

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htf/showthread.php?t=262992

The reviewers, and your friend got this one totally wrong, now admit it, I dare you.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Yeah, that makes sense...you're gonna have to do better than that if you are trying to insult me, that's pretty pedestrian stuff, then again that's on par for you anyway. I can chime in wherever I please, this is a free forum, you do the same.

I have never seen an instance where adults enjoyed throwing mud at children. It usually the other way around.

[PeruvianSkies]

Peruvian, who ever said that Bluray was a disaster? I have been all over the internet in the last year, and I have never heard of anyone making such a claim. No wonder you and nightflier agree, you guys both graduated validictorian from the make things up school of bull.

I NEVER SAID BLU-RAY WAS THE DISASTER, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN MORE NEGATIVE REVIEWS ON THE BLU-RAY FOR BRAM STOKER THAN POSITIVE ONES.

As far as Bram stroker. Mr Coppola did not approve the Laserdisc, DVD or the superbit of this title. The only approval he has made is to the bluray copy. The bluray copy is what he wanted his film to look like. So any comparison between bluray, DVD, Superbit or LD is no comparison.

SO WHY DOES THE LASERDISC SAY DIRECTORS APPROVED EDITION?

The DVD was tweaked for that format. The LD was tweaked for that format. The superbit version was tweaked for that format. But none of these was tweaked by either Mr. Coppola himself, not Zoetrope studios. It was done by Sony pictures themselves.


The BR is the definitive version of this film, and cannot be compared to anything other version on video.

THEN WHY DOES IT LOOK LIKE CRAP AND NOT LIKE IT DID IN THEATERS?

Now if you don't believe a damn thing I say, here is a link to Hometheaterforum.com, and you can read what Robert Harris has to say about it. He knows more about film, film history, and film perservation than you will in your lifetime.

I FIGURED YOU WOULD PLAY THE RAH CARD ON ME AT SOME POINT, I CAN GOOGLE AND READ WHAT OTHERS SAY AS WELL. YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED AT WHAT I KNOW ABOUT FILM HISTORY.

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htf/showthread.php?t=262992

The reviewers, and your friend got this one totally wrong, now admit it, I dare
you.

SO HOW CAN ALL OF THESE REVIEWERS BE WRONG? ARE THEY ALL IN CAHOOTS TO MAKE BLU-RAY LOOK BAD? NOPE. THEY ARE ALL MAKING THE SAME STATEMENTS ABOUT THE BLU-RAY...EXPLAIN WHY THE DOCUMENTARY LOOKS BETTER ON THE BLU-RAY THAN THE MOVIE PRESENTATION? EXPLAIN WHY IT DOESN'T LOOK THE WAY IT WAS IN THEATERS.



The link you provided earlier to show your credentials takes you to a login page.

[Woochifer]

Yeah, that makes sense...you're gonna have to do better than that if you are trying to insult me, that's pretty pedestrian stuff, then again that's on par for you anyway. I can chime in wherever I please, this is a free forum, you do the same.

Of course it makes sense, since you described yourself to a tee! I couldn't have phrased it any better (hell, I might have even been a bit kinder to you than you were to yourself!), that was your best post yet! :cornut:

BTW, no one's telling where you can or cannot post. Just don't be surprised by how the adults react whenever you try to turn the forum into your personal playground.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Now you know!

A really low and classless thing to do. How can anyone condone this kind of behavior I will never know.

[Woochifer]

Now you know!

Douche? DOUCHE? :lol: What are you, hearkening back to 5th grade or still there?

Your post just proves who the adult is in this exchange. You just make it all too easy ... :sleep:

[GMichael]

Now you know!

Please delete this.

[kexodusc]

Now you know!
Seek help!

[L.J.]

Now you know!

Pretty sad BS....oops, I mean PS.

Perhaps you should read over the definition of a troll again.

Here is the definition of a troll.
"someone who intentionally posts controversial or contrary messages in an on-line community such as an on-line discussion forum with the intention of baiting users into an argumentative response".

This describes you and your actions pretty well.

I think mr. self proclaimed trollkiller needs to think of a new name for his self. Oh wait, you've done that a few times already.....nevermind.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I NEVER SAID BLU-RAY WAS THE DISASTER, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN MORE NEGATIVE REVIEWS ON THE BLU-RAY FOR BRAM STOKER THAN POSITIVE ONES.

Maybe because the idiots are doing exactly what you are doing, trying to compare all of the other releases to this one. Its not possible because Mr. Coppola didn't approve the other releases.



SO WHY DOES THE LASERDISC SAY DIRECTORS APPROVED EDITION?

He approved the printmaster the LD was encoded from, and the editing choices, but he didn't approve the transfer itself.



THEN WHY DOES IT LOOK LIKE CRAP AND NOT LIKE IT DID IN THEATERS?

You obviously didn't read Robert Harris's post did you? First, Theaters are not perfect in their presentations. The bulb in the projector could have been too dim, and not meet SPMTE standards for light output, or it could have been improperly calibrated too bright as well. Second, video can never produce what is exactly on film, never. The colorspace is different, and no video format with 10bit colorspace can ever capture all the color gamut on film. Thirdly, video is usually sourced from a digitally scanned capture. Whether it is 2k or 4k, it cannot transfer the organic nature of film.

It does not look like crap. According to Paidgeek a Sony Home video executive, and Robert Harris who have viewed the printmaster the bluray was strucked from, the bluray is as closed to the film as video will allow. That cannot be said for any of the other formats release.


I FIGURED YOU WOULD PLAY THE RAH CARD ON ME AT SOME POINT, I CAN GOOGLE AND READ WHAT OTHERS SAY AS WELL. YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED AT WHAT I KNOW ABOUT FILM HISTORY.

Robert doesn't have to google and read what other say, he has enough knowledge and experience in the industry that people google to read what he has to say.

I would be surprised if you know anything about film, because if you did, I would not have to explain this stuff to you.


CAN ALL OF THESE REVIEWERS BE WRONG? ARE THEY ALL IN CAHOOTS TO MAKE BLU-RAY LOOK BAD? NOPE. THEY ARE ALL MAKING THE SAME STATEMENTS ABOUT THE BLU-RAY...EXPLAIN WHY THE DOCUMENTARY LOOKS BETTER ON THE BLU-RAY THAN THE MOVIE PRESENTATION? EXPLAIN WHY IT DOESN'T LOOK THE WAY IT WAS IN THEATERS.

Yes, all of the reviewers can be wrong. Reviewers are not experts, they are hobbist just like you and I. The can only review what they see, and provide a SUBJECTIVE opinion on that. Anyone can provide a subjective opinion of what they see, but very few have access to the printmaster for an objective comparison. None of the reviewer I have read on this issue have that access, and it has been proven time and time again that our auditory and visual memory threshold decreases rapidly over time. So the truth is, most cannot even remember what the theatrical print looked like in the theater, or if the theater was even properly calibrated. Its theatrical releases was in 1997, do you really think a memory has the capacity to make objective comparison on a film some ten years later?? Not according to science.

Video cannot look like film, never, ever. I have already explained why.

Remember that your opinion of the quality of this movie is seen through somebody elses eyes. I seriously doubt whether you or your friend has even seen the bluray copy, as it just got released this tuesday. Was this persons set, or the set he viewed it on properly ISF calibrated? I doubt this as well, since many do not go through the trouble or the expense of doing so.

Unless you have the approve printmaster to compare the bluray copy to, you really don't know whether the movie looks like crap or not. According to the sources who have seen it, the bluray copy comes as close as video will allow.

[Mr Peabody]

Anyone know if the Jungle Book was released on Blu-ray as it was supposed to. They didn't mention Blu-ray on the TV commercial. They usually do when they come out at the same time. Original reports were that both would be released on the same day.

Movies like this are a tough call, do you buy Blu-ray and the kids only watch when dad is there, or do you buy it on DVD so it can be played any where in the house and auto. Even if Blu-ray was to win it would take a long time to switch over all players. I wish they would do a deal where you could get both formats at a slight discount, because in this scenario I believe DVD gets the nudge for now. In this case a dual format disc wouldn't work, I'd be afraid of getting one side scratched up.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Anyone know if the Jungle Book was released on Blu-ray as it was supposed to. They didn't mention Blu-ray on the TV commercial. They usually do when they come out at the same time. Original reports were that both would be released on the same day.

Movies like this are a tough call, do you buy Blu-ray and the kids only watch when dad is there, or do you buy it on DVD so it can be played any where in the house and auto. Even if Blu-ray was to win it would take a long time to switch over all players. I wish they would do a deal where you could get both formats at a slight discount, because in this scenario I believe DVD gets the nudge for now. In this case a dual format disc wouldn't work, I'd be afraid of getting one side scratched up.

HD DVD tried to conquer this problem with the combo disc DVD on one side, HD DVD on the other. They had too many problems with them playing on HD DVD players. Warner has finally gave up on it, and it looks like Universal may as well.

This has not really been a problem for me. Most of my bluray collection is upgrades from my DVD collection. So I have one I can travel with, and the other for my hometheater. Obviously for new releases I get the bluray, so travelling with new releases is currently impossible.

Hopefully they'll have a bluray portable soon.

As far as Jungle book, Disney decided against it because catalog titles sales are not doing that well at the moment. The only catalog titles Disney plans to release are titles that have done well at the box office, and on DVD. Cars fits that perfectly.

[Feanor]

... from this desultory polemic.

[L.J.]

Movies like this are a tough call, do you buy Blu-ray and the kids only watch when dad is there, or do you buy it on DVD so it can be played any where in the house and auto. Even if Blu-ray was to win it would take a long time to switch over all players. I wish they would do a deal where you could get both formats at a slight discount, because in this scenario I believe DVD gets the nudge for now. In this case a dual format disc wouldn't work, I'd be afraid of getting one side scratched up.

I'm kinda in the same situation but I do have a pretty large DVD collections so there's plenty to choose from. Just the other day my wife tried to play a BR in the DVD player up front. Any animation I have double dipped on, the DVD copy goes to the kids room or up front. If it's a new release than I'll buy it on BR and we just all watch it together. One thing I've done is buy about 20 or so DVD's that my kids just keep in their room at all times or for the car.

[Mr Peabody]

LJ, do you think animation benefits as much from Blu-ray as a regular film? I haven't watched many animated movies on BR but the couple I have seen the difference didn't seem to be as noticeable. The SD was upsampled but the difference is still apparent on regular filmed movies. BR animation looks sharper and more color saturation over SD. It's probably not possible to draw the kind of depth and other detail of reality.

[L.J.]

LJ, do you think animation benefits as much from Blu-ray as a regular film? I haven't watched many animated movies on BR but the couple I have seen the difference didn't seem to be as noticeable. The SD was upsampled but the difference is still apparent on regular filmed movies. BR animation looks sharper and more color saturation over SD. It's probably not possible to draw the kind of depth and other detail of reality.

Guess it depends, but mostly I would say yes. After getting my PS3, The Wild was one of the first BR titles I got. My wife and I were pretty impressed with how good it looked. Same with Happy Feet. Excellent PQ and easy demo matl to show off the system, IMO. I had guests over and they couldn't get over how good it looked. We watched the SD DVD of Over the Hedge a month or so ok with the kids. It happened to come on HBO HD the next day and my wife and I noticed an immediate difference in PQ.

One point I wanted to bring up though, is the price difference of DVD vs BR. I do alot of bargain shopping for movies and have found that in some cases, the difference in price was only a few dollars. Especially when you compare the price of Special Edition or 2 disc sets which can run from $19-$22. This was the case with Happy Feet, where the special edition was $22 vs $24 for the BR version. Same with Night at the Museum. In most cases, I feel that the difference in price is worth the improvement in PQ & SQ, but I'm also very selective at what I buy, especially if the price for the BR over DVD version is pretty high. There are a few titles that I'm waiting for the price to come down or catch a good sale before I buy.

I have done a few comparisons and there are title's that didn't seem to offer much over the SD version. Dinosaur is one that comes to mind. I recently watched the BR and compared it to my SD copy and didn't see enough improvement to double dip on that title. I wish I could do side by side comparisons.

Cars should be interesting, the DVD version has excellent PQ & SQ and I'm curious to see how the BR version will turn out, but odds are I won't double dip on it. New releases or titles I don't already own are another story though.

[pixelthis]

LJ, do you think animation benefits as much from Blu-ray as a regular film? I haven't watched many animated movies on BR but the couple I have seen the difference didn't seem to be as noticeable. The SD was upsampled but the difference is still apparent on regular filmed movies. BR animation looks sharper and more color saturation over SD. It's probably not possible to draw the kind of depth and other detail of reality.

I saw teen mutant nijas, and 300, AND IF ANYTHING THEY LOOKED BETTER than
the "live" offerings I gandared.
Talledega nights, etc.
The live discs even led me to beleive this is an "evolutionary", not "revolutionary"
format. Wasn't impressed at all.:1:

[PeruvianSkies]

Rather than counter your quotes and make this thread even longer than it needs to be I wanted to start fresh and just mention a few things with regards to your previous reply to what I had said....

Video cannot look like film? Sure. It never will, but that is the reference for what the film should look like and if the Blu-ray or any other format doesn't look like that...then it's not a good transfer. Obviously formats have limitations that make it challenging to look like the theatrical experience.

So if the approved printmaster is the reference point for everything and the Blu-ray (or other formats) look like junk, but it's "accurate" to the printmaster than we are just suppose to deal with that and even if the director approved it, but the audience thinks it looks terrible then what? People knew that the Superbit had issues and they don't need to see the printmaster to know that it had color issues all over the place.

I find it a bit too coincidental that majority of the people that have seen the Blu-ray are making the same complaints. Or are they all in on some conspiracy together? While I know that some are comparing it to the other formats, most are saying that the Blu-ray is indeed superior to the previous formats, but the one interesting point is how the transfer looks better in the documentary excerpts on the Blu-ray over the actual film presentation. What happened there?????

It appears that a representative from Zoetrope went to approve the transfer, not Coppola himself...at least that is the explanation that I see online. People who do reviews (while they might not be so-called professionals) know when they see a good transfer, despite whatever limitations they might have to the original source material. Obviously most people don't have access to things for comparison, but it doesn't take a genius to look at the DVD presentation of Coppola's ONE FROM THE HEART and know that it's a good transfer.

Until I see the Blu-ray disc firsthand I shall reserve any more specific comments, but at this point there seems to be a divide with fans and whether it's accurate or not and/or directors approved, that doesn't seem to be convincing people at this point. I guess what it boils down to is whether people want a directors approved transfer that is accurate, but they don't personal prefer the transfer or just deal with it and wait for something else to come along, it's not like that film was Coppola's greatest moment.

[nightflier]

This is stupid. The betamax...The laserdisc...The CD format...The DVD format...There has always been a consistant and persistant chance that a major calamity could have destroyed all of these technologies chance in the consumer market, but it didn't happen....

You're agreeing that these technologies all stumbled to some degree because of political events right? Isn't that what I was saying about political or catastrophic events? They could have an impact. I never said that they would destroy the format, now did I? Yes, the formats from your examples survived, but they did stumble and that is precesely what I'm talking about.

If we go back to what has already been established in this thread: that this holiday season was crucial and that the shift of a single studio could tip the balance in this format war, then it is just as likely that either BR or HDDVD could become a niche product. I never said that a political of catastrophic event was going to kill off either format, I only said it could tip the balance.


Disc replication is a regional thing. If a earthquake hits the pioneer replication plant in the greater Los Angeles area, then it is likely the replication plant in Tara Haute could pick up the chore.
Perhaps this is true for the disks, but if we're talking about players, that's a whole different ball of wax. The players are comming from countries that are more unstable/fragile than the US and the cost/profit margins are much more volatile in those countries. The risk to the industry due to instability or another tsunami is much greater. Again, I'm not saying this would destroy the industry, only that it could affect price this holiday season.


Being able to purchase players for both format isn't odd, your whole perspective on this is.

Spoken like a true over-consumer. It's odd, it's expensive and it's extravagant. It's the kind of thing that the average American will not do, even if some of the people here do. You may think otherwise, but I don't believe it. If you're so sure that the majority of consumers will buy both formats, I'd like to see where you get that idea. Let's see some sales figures, or a survey that was done on the subject. And given how small the HD market share is, it's even more odd.


And your perspective is so far out of the movie industry, you know nothing about it, even on a basic level. I mean come on, players fall into the sea, and all of a sudden the price goes up.

Yes. What's so hard to understand about that? If a critical component is in short supply, the complete product that depends on it is either delayed or the price goes up. I've seen this happen over and over again in the computer industry, so why would that be strange in the electronics industry? Actually, I can remember reading about CD players being affected by a shortage in tray loading motors by Phillips. Again, I'm only saying that this would matter in the unique situation of this holiday season, where either format could loose critical sales because of something like this. I'm sure Sony would be pretty irritated if in November the chips for it's PS3's video processor where in short supply. Would it impact the BR/HDDVD format war? Perhaps not, but who knows?


Aside from being an employee of a bluray exclusive studio...

So how does this not make you a shill for the BR camp?


The vast majority will not have to buy a player from each format, the war will be long over before that would happen.

It will be over? When? Can I quote you on that?


Where did I say that the people I know who bought both formats are reviewers? Dave right here is not a review, he has both.

I presumed from the way you described them that they were reviewers. I guess I misunderstood. With all the wordy doublespeak, it isn't always easy to understand what you mean (kind of like when you say you don't have a vested interest, but you do work for a BR only studio).


Why would Samsung want to release a dual format player if there was no market for them? Apparently there is, or they would be wasting their investment.

Tsk, tsk. Making mountains out of molehills again. I did not say there was no market for dual format players. I said that the market wasn't very significant. I meant this mostly in reference to the LG's lukewarm reception. I'm pretty sure I said that the Samsung player was still unknown to me. You're twisting around what I said. Very uncharacteristic for such a stickler for details as yourself.


LG player is not selling becuase it is not a certified HD DVD player.

So you know that this is why it's not selling? How do you know that? What inside information do you have that can shed some light on that revelation? Do you have some stats to back that one up? Does the average consumer even care about the certification? Or is it because the reviewers have given it their thumbs down? Well which is it?


Some one throw this record away, its broken

It seems you're the only one that doesn't want to hear that record - you know, the one where you actually back what you said about BR winning this war.


I would rather have a new Porsche or a new Honda Insight thanks Nightflier the BR pork belly investor....

What was it that you said about staying on topic?

[PeruvianSkies]

It''s too bad Sir TtT that there wasn't a way that we could have a film knowledge trivia between us online, it wouldn't be fair since you'd probably Google your answers, but I would easily challenge what you know about film any day if we could do it in person!

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

It''s too bad Sir TtT that there wasn't a way that we could have a film knowledge trivia between us online, it wouldn't be fair since you'd probably Google your answers, but I would easily challenge what you know about film any day if we could do it in person!

Peruvian, I know its your lack of basic intelligence that allows you to make unintelligent assumptions. Maybe you google your answers, but I have enough knowledgeable sources to go straight the horse mouth, rather than make faulty assumptions.

Since we cannot do it in person, try something we can do online.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Rather than counter your quotes and make this thread even longer than it needs to be I wanted to start fresh and just mention a few things with regards to your previous reply to what I had said....

Video cannot look like film? Sure. It never will, but that is the reference for what the film should look like and if the Blu-ray or any other format doesn't look like that...then it's not a good transfer. Obviously formats have limitations that make it challenging to look like the theatrical experience.

This statement does not apply to the topic which we are discussion. The digital intermediatary is the reference, not the bluray disc itself. The bluray disc is sourced from the digital intermediary, not the other way around. The DI was compared to the original work printmaster several times. After being tweaked to make it as close as possible to the original work printmaster, it was found to be as close as video can get to the original film elements. There is no denying that this was a VERY good transfer, according to Sony pictures and Zoetrope studios. Mr Coppola screened it himself, and approved it as being as close to the film as he has ever seen.



So if the approved printmaster is the reference point for everything and the Blu-ray (or other formats) look like junk, but it's "accurate" to the printmaster than we are just suppose to deal with that and even if the director approved it, but the audience thinks it looks terrible then what? People knew that the Superbit had issues and they don't need to see the printmaster to know that it had color issues all over the place.

Just what is the audience suppose to use to compare what they see? How do they know it looks like junk if they have nothing accurate to compare it to? Just their judgement? That means nothing as it is more subjective than objective. In order for something to be labelled as junk, one would have to compare the original printmaster to the DI that the bluray was encoded from. Outside of that, then there is no accurate comparison, its just a wide open guess.


I find it a bit too coincidental that majority of the people that have seen the Blu-ray are making the same complaints. Or are they all in on some conspiracy together? While I know that some are comparing it to the other formats, most are saying that the Blu-ray is indeed superior to the previous formats, but the one interesting point is how the transfer looks better in the documentary excerpts on the Blu-ray over the actual film presentation. What happened there?????

Its called serious pre-filtering of the video, something that nobody wanted on the film itself.
What you have is a few uneducated reviewers who have made the mistake of comparing the bluray disc to the other releases of this film, and based on the kind of picture THEY like as opposed to what the DP and director wants they made a judgement. If you compare the bluray to inaccurate previous releases, then your review is inaccurate, not the bluray disc. Then you have an online community of so called experts spreading the information from an inaccurate review throughout the online community. Peter Bracke started this round, and word of his review spread like wildfire everywhere. As soon as his uneducated inaccurate review was posted, you could go to AVS, Bluray.com, Hidefinition digest, and see the comments that folks were making. Then come the screenshots taken with a digital camera(which have inaccuracies themselves), then the comparisons with the other releases, and you have a online community spreading inaccuracies everywhere.


It appears that a representative from Zoetrope went to approve the transfer, not Coppola himself...at least that is the explanation that I see online.

Since you, or most other folks cannot access the insiders thread on Bluray.com, you do not have all of the story. A representative from Zoetrope acted as a go between the studio and Mr. Coppola himself. The representative coodinated the entire process as they were apart of the original production, and knew what it looked like. The representative brought the DI for Mr Coppola to see, if he didn't like what he saw, he recommended changes, and those changes were implemented. This process continued for months until Mr Coppola gave the go ahead. This was not a quick process, it was a process the covered many months.



People who do reviews (while they might not be so-called professionals) know when they see a good transfer, despite whatever limitations they might have to the original source material.

They think they know when they see a good transfer. If it is clean and blemish free, the color is good in their opinion, and there are no obvious artifacts and pixelation going they assume it is good. However all that can take place and the colorspace could still be off. The contrast could still be blown, and black levels somewhat crushed, and they wouldn't know the difference without a direct comparison to the original printmaster(or DI). That's a reality.

I can give you a good example of this. I worked on the original theatrical soundtrack of a movie that was reviewed on DVD. The reviewer thought the soundtrack sounded really good, and gave all of the accolades that a reviewers give to great soundtracks. However all was not great. The studio had taken elements of the LFE, and spread them to the main channels for backwards compatibility with mixdown Dolby Stereo. This highly weakened the LFE, and because most of the bass was being redirected back to the subwoofer, caused some very noticeable cancellation effects which made the bass uneven when compared to the original printmaster soundtrack. The reviewer had no idea this had even been done, and was not aware of the depature from the original theatrical printmaster soundtrack, but gave it a great review. Had he been able to go back to the original printmaster and compare it to the DVD, I am sure his review wouldn't have been so glowing.



Obviously most people don't have access to things for comparison, but it doesn't take a genius to look at the DVD presentation of Coppola's ONE FROM THE HEART and know that it's a good transfer.

It may have been a clean, artifact free transfer, but know one knows how accurate it is to the original film printmaster. Comparing it to the theatrical release is no comparison at all.


Until I see the Blu-ray disc firsthand I shall reserve any more specific comments, but at this point there seems to be a divide with fans and whether it's accurate or not and/or directors approved, that doesn't seem to be convincing people at this point. I guess what it boils down to is whether people want a directors approved transfer that is accurate, but they don't personal prefer the transfer or just deal with it and wait for something else to come along, it's not like that film was Coppola's greatest moment.

I think it is rather ironic that you are even attempting to discuss this without even seeing it first. Secondly, alot of folks view DVD, HD DVD, and bluray's through uncalibrated, miscalibrated, or calibration with their own personal tweaks that venture outside accuracy. In the grand scheme of things people have gotten used to CGI and digital optica effects that they have become VERY desensitized to analog optical effects. Almost all movies released now days use CGI or post production optical effects. Since the effects are usually of higher resolution, they appear sharper, cleaner, and sometimes anteseptic. All of the effects in this movie are done in camera, or using analog tools in post. The effect was to create a visual pallette more reminiscent of the old Hollywood horror movies. Based on what I saw on my BR copy of Dracula, they were quite sucessful.

There are some things a review can tell you, and some things it cannot. They can tell if the BR DI was clean and artifact free. What they cannot tell you is how accurate the DI is to the actual film itself.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

You're agreeing that these technologies all stumbled to some degree because of political events right? Isn't that what I was saying about political or catastrophic events? They could have an impact. I never said that they would destroy the format, now did I? Yes, the formats from your examples survived, but they did stumble and that is precesely what I'm talking about.

No I am not agreeing with this, because it didn't happen. I am really sorry that your ability to understand plain english is so limited. I said(very clearly I might add)This is stupid. The betamax...The laserdisc...The CD format...The DVD format...There has always been a consistant and persistant CHANCE that a major calamity could have destroyed all of these technologies chances in the consumer market, BUT IT DIDN'T HAPPEN....

How you got the reverse of what I said is beyond me.



If we go back to what has already been established in this thread: that this holiday season was crucial and that the shift of a single studio could tip the balance in this format war, then it is just as likely that either BR or HDDVD could become a niche product. I never said that a political of catastrophic event was going to kill off either format, I only said it could tip the balance.

Many things can tip the balance, VOD is not one of them. Sorry. Sony, Disney and Fox I know for sure is not going to switch sides. Just not going to happen. Disney wants region coding and BD+ along with Fox. The DVD forum already rejected both of these requests(I also know this for sure), and therefore precludes any of these two from switching sides. Sony for obvious reason will not. Warner has already said(and confirmed by my good friend who is an executive there), that it will not make any decision on which side to take till after christmas. They may just stay neutral for another year, they are making quite a bit of money on this venture, and they have kept costs pretty much in check. Paramount is HD DVD exclusive till christmas 2008, and Universal agreement is up at the end of this year. Universal has been touring Sony's replication facilities for the last 6 months or so, and Spielberg has already told them they cannot release any movie that Amblin has produced, or that he has directed unless its on both formats. He has repeated that to Paramount/Dreamworks as well. This means that both Paramount/Dreamwork and Universal cannot release any of their big guns unless its a neutral release. So the idea of studios changing sides is pretty much nill at this point, so that is off the table in this discussion at least till the beginning of next year.

There is no history of any political or catastrophic event that stopped, or even slowed the adoption of a new video technology. So to advance this as a talking point is specious, and has no precedence. The only thing that has slowed the adoption of any CE technology is the battle between DVD and DIVX, and that only lasted less than a year.



Perhaps this is true for the disks, but if we're talking about players, that's a whole different ball of wax. The players are comming from countries that are more unstable/fragile than the US and the cost/profit margins are much more volatile in those countries. The risk to the industry due to instability or another tsunami is much greater. Again, I'm not saying this would destroy the industry, only that it could affect price this holiday season.

Once again you are still trying to advance the arguement that player prices are dependent on world events. This is simply not true, and has never been true. It's FUD pure and simple. China has proven itself as having an extremely stable manufacturing base. Japan is a damn right mature and stable manufacturing base. Alot of DVD players are produced in China, and I have not heard of labor unrest(they crack down on that stuff there) are any other event that stopped DVD players from making it here. Once again, there is no history of what you are trying to advance, and the chance of world events effecting pricing or inventory has no history as well. DVD, HD DVD, and bluray players are not subject to market forces like oil and other commodities are.




Spoken like a true over-consumer. It's odd, it's expensive and it's extravagant. It's the kind of thing that the average American will not do, even if some of the people here do. You may think otherwise, but I don't believe it. If you're so sure that the majority of consumers will buy both formats, I'd like to see where you get that idea. Let's see some sales figures, or a survey that was done on the subject. And given how small the HD market share is, it's even more odd.

Your labels do not effect me. One can say you are a tight ass penny pincher who is too paralyzed by his own dogma to make a solid decision one way or another, and they would probably be right.

I never said that everyone was going to go dual format. However in case they are people that want to, there are solutions for them. By the time the "average" American adopts into HDM on disc, the war will be long over. Lastly, please do not ask me to provide anything else until you can provide some basic information that supports what you have said in thread after thread. When you can do that, then you have the right to ask.




Yes. What's so hard to understand about that? If a critical component is in short supply, the complete product that depends on it is either delayed or the price goes up.

To show you just how absolutely ignorant you are on this here is a tidbit for you. Blue diodes were in very short supply when both HD DVD and Bluray were brought to market. Guess what? The players came, and the price remained exactly the same. There was a delay with bluray, but it had nothing to do with parts, it was standards, and guess what? The price was still the same.


I've seen this happen over and over again in the computer industry, so why would that be strange in the electronics industry?

The computer industry is not the same as the Home video industry. They don't operate the same, they don't do business the same way. The computer industry may have a history of this, but not the home video industry. Apples and Pears, sorry try again.



Actually, I can remember reading about CD players being affected by a shortage in tray loading motors by Phillips.

Fortunately Phillips was not the only company making tray motors. Effect some, but not all is not a basis for building an arguement. Toshiba had a difficult time finding blue diodes, Sony did not. Any one company can be effected by shortages without effecting the whole industry.


Again, I'm only saying that this would matter in the unique situation of this holiday season, where either format could loose critical sales because of something like this. I'm sure Sony would be pretty irritated if in November the chips for it's PS3's video processor where in short supply. Would it impact the BR/HDDVD format war? Perhaps not, but who knows?

Sony uses the Cell processor which are in plentiful supply. I don't think they have that to worry about. Also, Sony makes a standalone player, as does Pioneer, Daewoo, Sharp, Samsung, Funai, and several others. Bluray is not wholly dependant on the PS3 for its success. However Toshiba has everything riding on its players. Since Toshiba is the lone supplier of HD DVD players design and manufacture, they have more to lose than Sony on this issue. Another?




So how does this not make you a shill for the BR camp?

I get paid for producing soundtracks, not promoting formats. When you state the facts, you are not a shill, but a person stating facts. Are you a shill for the do nothing camp?




It will be over? When? Can I quote you on that?

It took about 5 years for the masses to embrace the DVD format. Several studio executives have already said they will not support both formats, and are looking to end this war ASAP. Blockbuster has already made their move, as has target in their stores. Walmart has done the same thing in their stores. HD DVD would be on their way out the door if they had not bought Paramounts support. They bought themselves some time, but not a victory. Everyone who understands this industry has stated such.

When you have a one format that cannot even defeat the other with three exclusive releases in a week against none on the other, you can plainly see that one is completely overtaken the other in players installed base. When you have Europe's largest studios announce exclusive HD DVD support, and less than three months later go neutral, that is a sign that one format is growing faster than the other. When you have eight manufacturers making players on one side, and just one on the other, once clearly has industry wide support, the other doesn't. When you have three exclusive studios and one neutral studio with the choice of releasing whatever titles they have in their library, versus two exclusive with tight stipulations on what titles they can release and which is off limits, then you know one side does not have the support of certain directors and production companies in the industry. When you have one side lead in disc sales for 8 months, and lose that lead in one month, that shows you that it doesn't have widespread consumer support. So, if the consumer doesn't decide this war, the studios certainly will. Warner has already said they are paying attention to disc sales, and will switch their support accordingly after the new year, yes, you can quote me. Give you a date, if you think I can do that, then there is much more air between those ears than I thought.




I presumed from the way you described them that they were reviewers. I guess I misunderstood. With all the wordy doublespeak, it isn't always easy to understand what you mean (kind of like when you say you don't have a vested interest, but you do work for a BR only studio).

You have been presuming alot, and wrong alot as well. Brightness, can you tell me how working for a BR exclusive studio is accurately called a vested interest? I was working for that studio before you ever heard of bluray or HD DVD. Alot of your talking points resemble rubber bands, they're a real stretch.




Tsk, tsk. Making mountains out of molehills again. I did not say there was no market for dual format players. I said that the market wasn't very significant. I meant this mostly in reference to the LG's lukewarm reception. I'm pretty sure I said that the Samsung player was still unknown to me. You're twisting around what I said. Very uncharacteristic for such a stickler for details as yourself.

The market isn't signficant because you can get a player from each format for much cheaper. And many folks are doing it. Go to AVS, Hidefinitiondigest, Hometheater spot, Hometheatshack, and several other sites and see that people are indeed purchasing players from both formats. It certainly doesn't ride to the height of those that have picked a side, but it is significant enough to mention.




So you know that this is why it's not selling? How do you know that? What inside information do you have that can shed some light on that revelation? Do you have some stats to back that one up? Does the average consumer even care about the certification? Or is it because the reviewers have given it their thumbs down? Well which is it?

Both. When the player was introduced, the DVD forum refused to allow it to sport the HD DVD badge. That raised a significant buzz in the online A/V community. When it was found that it could not do the interactive features that the HD DVD PG has pushed so much, then once again the community was set abuzz. When it was found to cost over $1000 and only support HDMI 1.1 again there was a strike against it. When the bluray folks found that it could not playback home burned bluray disc, that was it for them. There is plenty of online community comment on this, all one has to do is get off their butt and look.



It seems you're the only one that doesn't want to hear that record - you know, the one where you actually back what you said about BR winning this war.

Actually if you look at player sales and disc sales, they are winning the war. They haven't won, but they have been consistantly winning disc sales for nearly a year. They are now outselling HD DVD in standalone players as well. I think I have provided sales ratios. So I have actually backed my point with facts, you have not, and that is a fact. Can you provide sales figures or data that support your contention that VOD will make HD DVD and bluray niche products?




What was it that you said about staying on topic?

Sometimes that is difficult when the other party refuses to do so.

[nightflier]

...Little Terrence just won't go away.


No I am not agreeing with this, because it didn't happen. I am really sorry that your ability to understand plain english is so limited. I said(very clearly I might add)This is stupid. The betamax...The laserdisc...The CD format...The DVD format...There has always been a consistant and persistant CHANCE that a major calamity could have destroyed all of these technologies chances in the consumer market, BUT IT DIDN'T HAPPEN....

You said that: "The laserdisc was introduced in 1978, a year before the Iran hostage affair. While it remained a niche product, it made it through the hostage crises, the latter part of the oil embargo, various hurricaines, world crises and everything else."

So it remained a niche product. Can you verify for the rest of us that the hostage crisis wasn't just a tad on everyone's mind when they went to the hifi store? You're only making assumptions and you really don't know. How can you be so sure that world events don't affect sales? This stuff was all over the news, everyday. Economists know that people's attitudes about spending their money are shaped by world events. People's attitudes about risk (i.e. choosing a side in a format war) are definitely affected by world events. If you don't believe that, you ought to read up on economic history. I won't even go into what happened to our economy after 9/11 - it survived, yes, but it put a real drain on the x-mas shopping season, or did you forget about that one?

With this format war and this fall shopping season we're talking about a very real threat of a serious calamitous event (an attack on Iran) that could set off numerous secondary events, and all at a time when two disks formats that make up less than 5% of the movie market need to fight it out in the marketplace? Don't you think it's a little premature to say that the format war is all but over?


Many things can tip the balance, VOD is not one of them.

How can you be so sure? Your presumption is based solely on a slowdown in VOD subscriptions. But how do those subscription numbers compare to BR/HDDVD rental figures? Because if we're going to be comparing apples to apples, let's not beat around the bush with oranges.


Disney wants region coding and BD+ along with Fox. The DVD forum already rejected both of these requests(I also know this for sure), and therefore precludes any of these two from switching sides.

I'm not disagreeing, but 'm a little fuzzy. Can you explain that one?


Warner...may just stay neutral for another year, they are making quite a bit of money on this venture, and they have kept costs pretty much in check.

Either this is your assumption or there's more to this. Care to elaborate?


Universal has been touring Sony's replication facilities for the last 6 months or so...

Speculative. You don't know what else they've been touring.


This means that both Paramount/Dreamwork and Universal cannot release any of their big guns unless its a neutral release.

Just because they have to release in both formats does not mean that the content will be the same on both disks. Ever heard of a crappy marketing ply called 300?


So the idea of studios changing sides is pretty much nill at this point, so that is off the table in this discussion at least till the beginning of next year.

Much of this is speculation and whispers from your inside sources. I'm not going to take your word for this.

This next one I'm going to hold you to:


The chance of world events effecting pricing or inventory has no history as well. DVD, HD DVD, and bluray players are not subject to market forces like oil and other commodities are.

You make so many absolute statements, it's as if everything for you has to be black and white. You want to go down on that boat, be my guest.


Your labels do not effect me. One can say you are a tight ass penny pincher who is too paralyzed by his own dogma to make a solid decision one way or another, and they would probably be right.

But you sure like to insult when you can. So much for that vaulted decorum you're so proud of.


I never said that everyone was going to go dual format.

You sure made it sound like it was not an oddball thing to do. You were going on and on with the names of all the people who did. That's misleading.


However in case they are people that want to, there are solutions for them. By the time the "average" American adopts into HDM on disc, the war will be long over.

Your assumption.


Lastly, please do not ask me to provide anything else until you can provide some basic information that supports what you have said in thread after thread. When you can do that, then you have the right to ask.

Hey you're the numbers guy. I never said I had a pocket full of sales figures to make myself sound smart. You want to argue about numbers, you'll have to provide some.


To show you just how absolutely ignorant you are

More insults?


Blue diodes were in very short supply when both HD DVD and Bluray were brought to market. Guess what? The players came, and the price remained exactly the same.

This is a pointless argument. How serious was the shortage? Apparently not very much. You're making an argument out of a chosen non-example. Sounds more like you are setting the parameters of the argument here. Anyone can use those tricks, they don't make the case.


There was a delay with bluray, but it had nothing to do with parts, it was standards, and guess what? The price was still the same.

I recall BR coming way down in price to try and meet the HDDVD lead, there.


The computer industry is not the same as the Home video industry. They don't operate the same, they don't do business the same way. The computer industry may have a history of this, but not the home video industry. Apples and Pears, sorry try again.

I don't know, but at least technologically, that BR player looks a lot like a computer to me. It even takes as long to boot up. If a shortage in parts can affect laptops (just went through that with a shipment of HP laptops), then I presume the same could affect BR players.


Fortunately Phillips was not the only company making tray motors. Effect some, but not all is not a basis for building an arguement.

Now you're treading on thin ice again. This is wandering away from the safety of you area of expertise... If Phillips is the exclusive contractor for said parts, that slows down product releases and does very much affect sales. Just look at what was happened to PS Audio's recent power products - the delay certainly didn't do them under, but how many sales did they loose to Furman, Shunyata, and Richard Gray? Again, we'll never know, but if PS Audio's power supplies were struggling in small market segment, that might just have done it for that product line.


Toshiba had a difficult time finding blue diodes, Sony did not.

So if it affects the HDDVD camp, it's a significant example, but if it affects the BR camp it's not? So how do you know that this shortage isn't the reason HDDVD player sales have been affected?


Any one company can be effected by shortages without effecting the whole industry.

Using that same logic, any one format can be a affected without affecting the whole movie industry. VOD anyone?


Bluray is not wholly dependant on the PS3 for its success.

I didn't say BR was wholly dependent on the PS3. I was using the PS3 as an example that a shortage would hurt sales in that particular market segment.


However Toshiba has everything riding on its players. Since Toshiba is the lone supplier of HD DVD players design and manufacture, they have more to lose than Sony on this issue.

Well there's always LG's HDDVD player. And I'm presuming that Toshiba makes the HDDVD player for xBox, but I'm sure you can enlighten us.


I get paid for producing soundtracks, not promoting formats. When you state the facts, you are not a shill, but a person stating facts.

So your paycheck comes from doing soundtracks for BR disks, right? How exactly does that not make you biassed?


Are you a shill for the do nothing camp?

Yeah, that's a good one, little Terrence. Did you lean that one in grade-school?


Several studio executives have already said they will not support both formats, and are looking to end this war ASAP.

Who are those "several executives"?


Blockbuster has already made their move

NetFlix hasn't.


as has target in their stores.

Haven't seen any BR disks at my local Target, but if that's so, I'll give you that one.


Walmart has done the same thing in their stores.

I don't shop at wallmart, but I thought they were going HDDVD. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I could be. I'm only human - I do make mistakes.


HD DVD would be on their way out the door if they had not bought Paramounts support.

So you say "they" paid them off? Sounds a little shady. What are you saying?


They bought themselves some time, but not a victory.

Time is important, especially given this holiday season.


Everyone who understands this industry has stated such.

So "everyone who understands this industry" is in the BR camp. And "everyone" in the HDDVD camp is just a simpleton who doesn't understand the industry? Can I quote you on that bit of wisdom?


When you have Europe's largest studios announce exclusive HD DVD support, and less than three months later go neutral, that is a sign that one format is growing faster than the other.

Gotta slow you down there, little Terrence. They are neutral, that's all. This is not an indication that they are calling a winner. If there's a few things I know about life across the pond: everything costs more, the people are a lot more careful about where they spend their money, and they hold onto technology a lot longer as long as it still works. It's a cultural thing, I suppose, but they will not be as lemming-like as you may want them to be.


When you have eight manufacturers making players on one side, and just one on the other, once clearly has industry wide support, the other doesn't.

Well, maybe, but if you look at the economics of this, it's not that simple. Even with BR ahead by a 2-1 margin, you still have 8 guys on the BR side fighting it out and beating each other up while on the HDDVD side, you've got one fellar keeping all the profits for himself. One could hardly say that the BR camp is in a better position with this example.


When you have one side lead in disc sales for 8 months, and lose that lead in one month, that shows you that it doesn't have widespread consumer support.

Again, let's not be so simplistic, little Terrence. Those 8 months of HDDVD leading the race have allowed it to flood the market with products. You could look at it another way, it could just be that the BR camp is just catching up. For example, how many frees-standing HDDVD players are actually in people's homes compared to BR? I'm going to guess there are more HDDVD players, but I'm sure you can give us exact figures, right?


So, if the consumer doesn't decide this war, the studios certainly will.

Well didn't you say that the studios were gona wait and see what the consumers will be doing this holiday season? I think your exact words were: "...Warner has already said (and confirmed by my good friend who is an executive there), that it will not make any decision on which side to take till after christmas. ... Paramount is HD DVD exclusive till christmas 2008, and Universal agreement is up at the end of this year." No, I think the studios are going to wait this out as well.


Warner has already said they are paying attention to disc sales, and will switch their support accordingly after the new year

Hey what do you know, another contradiction.


yes, you can quote me.

I intend to. It will be priceless to see you eat those words (although you're pretty good at denying it when you're already doing so).


...Can you tell me how working for a BR exclusive studio is accurately called a vested interest?

They butter your bread, don't they? You're a shill, just admit it!


I was working for that studio before you ever heard of bluray or HD DVD.

So what? They are paying you now, right? Your livelyhood depends on BR winning this war. How can you even stand here and tell us you're impartial?



Alot of your talking points resemble rubber bands, they're a real stretch.

Boy that kind of wit is astounding...

for a 5th grader! 'Come on little Terrence, grow up.


The market isn't signficant because you can get a player from each format for much cheaper. And many folks are doing it. Go to AVS, Hidefinitiondigest, Hometheater spot, Hometheatshack, and several other sites and see that people are indeed purchasing players from both formats. It certainly doesn't ride to the height of those that have picked a side, but it is significant enough to mention.

What a way to make a mountain out of a molehill. I said that the number of people owning both formats was insignificant, and then you say "It certainly doesn't ride to the height of those that have picked a side." This is exactly what I said, but you find a way to make it sound like more.


When the player was introduced, the DVD forum refused to allow it to sport the HD DVD badge. That raised a significant buzz in the online A/V community. When it was found that it could not do the interactive features that the HD DVD PG has pushed so much, then once again the community was set abuzz. When it was found to cost over $1000 and only support HDMI 1.1 again there was a strike against it. When the bluray folks found that it could not playback home burned bluray disc, that was it for them. There is plenty of online community comment on this, all one has to do is get off their butt and look.

Nice details but you can't say that's why the player's not selling - you're only speculating. I'll tell you why it's not selling: most people don't want both formats.


They are now outselling HD DVD in standalone players as well. I think I have provided sales ratios. So I have actually backed my point with facts,

Are these facts enough to offset an 8 month head start by the HDDVD camp? How many players are actually in people's homes? For all you know this may just be BR catching up and riding that wave.


Can you provide sales figures or data that support your contention that VOD will make HD DVD and bluray niche products?

I never said I would. I am only telling people that what you are presenting as facts is only part of the picture. You are so focussed on that one part that you can't even see that it's not complete. It's just childish, really, just like your petty insults. Grow up and show a backbone, already.

[PeruvianSkies]

To see how long it takes Sir T to reply to this, he started at 1:53am...start the clock!

[kexodusc]

To see how long it takes Sir T to reply to this, he started at 1:53am...start the clock!
Your obsessive fixation with Sir T is disturbing. What, are you hiding in his bushes watching him?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

To see how long it takes Sir T to reply to this, he started at 1:53am...start the clock!

Oh PS, you didn't respond to my answer on Bram Strokers. What happen? You seemed so knowledgeable and ready to debate me on this. Shot your wad and have nothing left?

At 1:53am I was very sleep, so I couldn't have started at that time. Try again???

[L.J.]

Your obsessive fixation with Sir T is disturbing. What, are you hiding in his bushes watching him?

Interesting for someone who logs in using "Invisible Mode".

[Groundbeef]

Looks like that pesky HD-DVD format is back on top. For all those that had written it off, its selling quite a bit better than Blu-Ray now.

Heres the link:
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6488493.html?nid=3511

Also, with the arrogance of the BD folks over at Fox, its no wonder people are turned off by the format. Fox is now releasing BD movies in a format some players are unable to play. Instead of making sure that all players will support the format, Fox is suggesting that consumers who purchased the movie (that won't play or be returned after opening) LOBBY their machine maker for an "update" that will allow playback.

At least HD-DVD mandates ethernet so that consumers can plug in and d/l updates as needed. Many BD machines don't have capabilities to even get online for patches/updates.

See here:

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/05/fox-says-its-not-our-fault-if-you-cant-play-our-movies/

[kexodusc]

Looks like that pesky HD-DVD format is back on top. For all those that had written it off, its selling quite a bit better than Blu-Ray now.

That's cool. If my memory is correct, there's more hardware sales fo HD-DVD, but more software sales for BluRay? Sounds like things might get a bit nasty in time for Christmas.

[PeruvianSkies]

Oh PS, you didn't respond to my answer on Bram Strokers. What happen? You seemed so knowledgeable and ready to debate me on this. Shot your wad and have nothing left?

At 1:53am I was very sleep, so I couldn't have started at that time. Try again???

I told you I was waiting until I get the disc before making any more comments. Don't worry I am far from done with you.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

...Little Terrence just won't go away.

Little winged creature. Sir Terrence is not going away.




So it remained a niche product. Can you verify for the rest of us that the hostage crisis wasn't just a tad on everyone's mind when they went to the hifi store? You're only making assumptions and you really don't know.

Then why did they go to the Hifi store in the first place. If I was pre-occupied with world events, shopping for equipment would be the last thing on my mind.

The laserdisc remained a niche product for several reason. This is not guess work, its fact because I am going to take the information directly from Pioneers magazine on the history of optical disc.

A. The laserdisc was a non recording format competiting against VHS and Beta which were recording formats.

B. The laserdisc players were more expensive than their video counterparts, and remained that way throught its 20 year history. It became a film buff and film collectors format.

C. The laserdisc itself was big, bulky, easily damaged, and very expensive compared to VHS and Beta tapes.

D. The Laserdisc was not marketed as a rented product like VHS, it was sell through only which made the pipeline for its distribution much smaller than VHS.

This is what kept the laserdisc a niche product, not the hostage crises(as you are trying to advance), not any economic downturn(there was a worldwide recession in the early eighties, and laserdisc sales still grew, and VHS more than doubled its market size) If one looked at history, sales of video products actually grew during recessions. People stayed home and watch movies and taped shows.



How can you be so sure that world events don't affect sales? This stuff was all over the news, everyday. Economists know that people's attitudes about spending their money are shaped by world events.

And if we were to look at history, sales of video products actually grew during worldwide recessions, hostage crises, wars, deaths of world leaders, impeachment hearing, a dog pissing on a front lawn. There is no evidence that at all of a negative impact, and if there is, feel free to point it out with EVIDENCE, not your opinion.




People's attitudes about risk (i.e. choosing a side in a format war) are definitely affected by world events. If you don't believe that, you ought to read up on economic history. I won't even go into what happened to our economy after 9/11 - it survived, yes, but it put a real drain on the x-mas shopping season, or did you forget about that one?

We are in two wars right now(afghanistan and Iraq), and people are choosing either HD DVD or bluray every day. We were in both wars when both product launched, did you know there are over 5.5 million products sold with a bluray drive in them? Did you know that there were 600k products sold with a HD DVD drive in them. All while we were at war. Did you know that Bluray just pressed its 10 millionth BD50 disc last week, and has pressed more than 30 million BD25 this year. All while we were at war.



With this format war and this fall shopping season we're talking about a very real threat of a serious calamitous event (an attack on Iran) that could set off numerous secondary events, and all at a time when two disks formats that make up less than 5% of the movie market need to fight it out in the marketplace? Don't you think it's a little premature to say that the format war is all but over?

Since 1975 when beta came on the market we have seen VHS, Laserdisc, CD, DVD and now HD DVD and Bluray hit the market. We have had 32 christmas seasons with the formats, plenty of time for you theory to play out. Since 75, we have had wars, oil crises, hostages taken, economic downturns, plenty of events that could allow your theory to play out. It didn't happen. There is no evidence that we have seen so far that ties what happen in one place, affecting everywhere when it comes to sales of video media.

If you have any evidence to support your theory, I am all eyes. I have been waiting for it since page one on this thread.




How can you be so sure? Your presumption is based solely on a slowdown in VOD subscriptions. But how do those subscription numbers compare to BR/HDDVD rental figures? Because if we're going to be comparing apples to apples, let's not beat around the bush with oranges.

You have one market that is stagnated, the other that is growing steadily. One has been around a while, the other just got here. One has had the DVD rental market as its competition, and hasn't been able to stop or even dent DVD rentals.

BR and HD DVD are mainly sell through products. While blockbuster and netflicks do rent them, the lion share of HD DVD and Bluray comes from sales not rentals. VOD revenue has completely flatten out, and has been that way since early 2006.




I'm not disagreeing, but 'm a little fuzzy. Can you explain that one?

No. Get online and look it up.




Either this is your assumption or there's more to this. Care to elaborate?

Warner has stated this themselves publicly, and one of my school mates from film school is an executive at Warner has stated this to me as well. No need to assume, if you were really paying attention to these formats, this information has been pretty well known.




Speculative. You don't know what else they've been touring.

Weak. You have HD DVD and Bluray. Since Universal is already HD DVD, knowns HD DVD replication and distrubution backwards and forwards(they have been in that camp since day one) they are not exactly needing to tour a HD DVD replication facility. Since Bluray is the only other format here, they must be touring it because they are interested. Not speculative, just plain logical. Ken Graffeo who is Universal head of home entertainment said himself he is under intense pressure from GE to increase profits. The only way to do this is to go neutral, since they do not sell players. If they go neutral, they can release all of the Steven Spielberg movies which would definately spur sales and increase profit. That is why you tour the replication facilities of the other format. No need for speculation, this is simple logic.




Just because they have to release in both formats does not mean that the content will be the same on both disks. Ever heard of a crappy marketing ply called 300?

Whether 300 is a crappy marketing ploy is a matter of subjective opinion. I liked it personally. Clearly the HD DVD version had more extra content than the Bluray version. That however is just the surface. In one week 300 sold 250k copies on Bluray and HD DVD. To break that down further they sold 187k bluray disc, and 63k to HD DVD. While the HD DVD version sales have dropped off considerably, the bluray version has continued to outsell every title that HD DVD has released in that period. The devil is in the details




Much of this is speculation and whispers from your inside sources. I'm not going to take your word for this.

No, its not speculation. Warner has stated in quite a few press releases that they are not going to make any moves until after christmas holidays. But the reality is they may not make any move, they are selling disc and making money. This is not private whispers, but public information if one was keeping track of events. You haven't and its pretty obvious.





You make so many absolute statements, it's as if everything for you has to be black and white. You want to go down on that boat, be my guest.

And you make statements with absolutely no historical foundation. You have yet to list any of these video formats being effected by the events which you state. Where is your proof? Where is the historical evidence that supports your theory? Where is it?????




But you sure like to insult when you can. So much for that vaulted decorum you're so proud of.

It is very difficult to maintain a vaulted decorum when you opponent can't stay on the level with you.




You sure made it sound like it was not an oddball thing to do. You were going on and on with the names of all the people who did. That's misleading.

Why would purchasing players from both format be an oddball thing? Is it because you cannot afford to do it? The concept is simple. I want(and others as well) the choice to purchase high definition media from all of the studios. I do not want my choices limited by a format war. What is so oddball about that. What I think is oddball is that you think the average video consumer is thinking about world events when they are at the counter purchasing HD media, or any media for that matter. They obviously want the product no matter what is going on in Darfur or Burma.




Your assumption.

And yours as well.




Hey you're the numbers guy. I never said I had a pocket full of sales figures to make myself sound smart. You want to argue about numbers, you'll have to provide some.

You are the one advancing a theory that has no historical precedence. All I am doing is asking you to provide an instance where sales of video players and software was effected by world events. I have already provided plenty of numbers to support my contentions. Do you really think that you can have a debate without proof?




More insults?

Actually its proving to be fact.




This is a pointless argument. How serious was the shortage? Apparently not very much. You're making an argument out of a chosen non-example. Sounds more like you are setting the parameters of the argument here. Anyone can use those tricks, they don't make the case.

Just because you say it is pointless doesn't make it so. It was serious enough to make the press

http://www.engadget.com/2006/08/30/blu-ray-and-hd-dvd-delays-due-to-blue-laser-shortage/

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=13671

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/7734.cfm

I have many more examples of this.






I recall BR coming way down in price to try and meet the HDDVD lead, there.

You are still wrong. When BR overtook HD DVD in January of this year, the PS3 was $599, the same price it was released at. Sony own standalone was $1000, same price it was at introduction. The Pioneer was over $1000, same as introduction, and the Samsung was $899, the same price at its introduction. Prices fell on these products when the second generation player where introduced at a lower price. Sony cut the price of the PS3 only three month ago, more than 8 months after it over took HD DVD.

So much for you recollection, and your theory.





I don't know, but at least technologically, that BR player looks a lot like a computer to me. It even takes as long to boot up. If a shortage in parts can affect laptops (just went through that with a shipment of HP laptops), then I presume the same could affect BR players.

Don't you have the intellect to distinguish a HD video player that plays movies but may function like a computer, from the computer industry? The computer industry is the computer industry. The movie industry is the movie industry. Can part shortages delay shipment of a BR player? Sure it can. But there is no evidence that it actually did. While there was a shortage of blue diodes at the begininng of 2006, there is no evidence that it killed sales as BR did overtake HD DVD two months after offically launching.




Now you're treading on thin ice again. This is wandering away from the safety of you area of expertise... If Phillips is the exclusive contractor for said parts, that slows down product releases and does very much affect sales.

Well, Phillips was not the exclusive contractor for said parts. Sony manufactured its own motorized drawers, so please provide some evidence that Phillips lack effected Sony.



Just look at what was happened to PS Audio's recent power products - the delay certainly didn't do them under, but how many sales did they loose to Furman, Shunyata, and Richard Gray? Again, we'll never know, but if PS Audio's power supplies were struggling in small market segment, that might just have done it for that product line.

Your example is perfect for exactly what I have been saying. PS Audio issues didn't effect Furman, Shunyata or Richard Grey did it? And neither would Phillips problems effect Sony.




So if it affects the HDDVD camp, it's a significant example, but if it affects the BR camp it's not? So how do you know that this shortage isn't the reason HDDVD player sales have been affected?

The BR camp had two manufacturers making blue diodes especially for BR players. Sony was one of them. Toshiba doesn't make blue diodes, so they were at the mercy of the market.

If you are going to advance the theory that the blue diode shortage effected players sales, you are going to have to provide evidence of this happening. If you cannot, the the theory is hollow and without merit.

Hmmm, the ice wasn't so thin after all.



Using that same logic, any one format can be a affected without affecting the whole movie industry. VOD anyone?

VOD has infrastructure isses, time limits, DRM, no 1080p, no 5.1 soundtracks, no extras, no pip, and no seamless branching, its compressed to death and is not a standalone solution. You must have cable or satellite to get VOD. You are right, these limitations do not effect BR, HD DVD nor the movie industry as a whole.




I didn't say BR was wholly dependent on the PS3. I was using the PS3 as an example that a shortage would hurt sales in that particular market segment.

Your example, while plausible has no history. If you are going to advance a theory, then it has to have some relevance in history or its just an empty theory.




Well there's always LG's HDDVD player. And I'm presuming that Toshiba makes the HDDVD player for xBox, but I'm sure you can enlighten us.

I already enlightened you. LG doesn't have a standalone HD DVD player, but they do have bluray rewriteable drives, recording drives they exibited at IFA 2007. They do not make any recordable drives for HD DVD, just read only.




So your paycheck comes from doing soundtracks for BR disks, right? How exactly does that not make you biassed?

Wow, you are ignorant of this industry. Nobody makes soundtracks exclusively for BR disc. NOBODY! All soundtracks are created for theatrical releases, and are ported over to BR and DVD. If there was no BR, then those tracks would be ported over to DVD just like they've been for ten years. If the DVD format failed, I would still be mixing. If the bluray format fails, I would still be mixing. I have done "enhanced for Hometheater" mixes exclusively for DVD and Bluray releases, but even if I didn't, I would still get paid.

Do you see how unintelligent you can be while trying to appear intelligent?




Yeah, that's a good one, little Terrence. Did you lean that one in grade-school?

I don't recall leaning on anything in grade school, though I learned alot




Who are those "several executives"?

Its on record online, look it up.




NetFlix hasn't.

Netflix doesn't have brick and motar stores.




Haven't seen any BR disks at my local Target, but if that's so, I'll give you that one.

There are three in my area, and they all have BR disc. Maybe you are looking hard enough.




I don't shop at wallmart, but I thought they were going HDDVD. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I could be. I'm only human - I do make mistakes.

Yes we know. Walmart has never stated they were going HD DVD only, don't know where you got that information. Walmart has stated that they will feature the Sony BD-S300 prominately in there stores. HD DVD players will be available on their online stores, but not featured in every Walmart store. Sam's Club(Walmart owned) no longer carries the X-box HD DVD drive, nor does it carry a Toshiba HD DVD player in their stores. They don't even carry them online.




So you say "they" paid them off? Sounds a little shady. What are you saying?

You really don't know anything about this war do you? The HD DVD PG(which is Toshiba and Microsoft) offered $150 million in incentives to Paramount and Dreamworks to discontinue supporting Bluray. Since I used to work at Paramount, I got the details from my former co-workers. The deal provides free authoring services provided by Microsoft using VC-1, price breaks and assistance on obtaining endcaps at the retail level. Paid assistance in advertising and distribution. All of this until after christmas 2008. The HD DVD PG knew that having Universal as their only exclusive studio was not going to sustain the format through next year, because Universal release schedule was not that strong(they only had Bourne Ultimatum as a big release for the fourth quarter). However with no War of the Worlds, no Saving Private Ryan, no Minority Report, no Indiana Jones trilogy, and no Amblin Pictures included in that deal, the deal appears to be all about nothing.




Time is important, especially given this holiday season.

Transformers and Shrek is all they have during the holiday season. Katzenberg has already stated that he doesn't think Shrek the Third will do that well. Time with quality releases is important, no just time itself.




So "everyone who understands this industry" is in the BR camp. And "everyone" in the HDDVD camp is just a simpleton who doesn't understand the industry? Can I quote you on that bit of wisdom?

How did you get that out of "Everyone who understands this industry has stated such."? Quote me on what I actually said, not what you made up. Thanks




Gotta slow you down there, little Terrence. They are neutral, that's all. This is not an indication that they are calling a winner. If there's a few things I know about life across the pond: everything costs more, the people are a lot more careful about where they spend their money, and they hold onto technology a lot longer as long as it still works. It's a cultural thing, I suppose, but they will not be as lemming-like as you may want them to be.

I never said they called a winner, I said they went neutral. Your reading skills suck man!
Having a large exclusive studio with a huge catalog going neutral hurts HD DVD. Having the top five independent european studios go from exclusive to neutral does as well. Now you can sit there and say that is not a sign of anything, but you would be stewing in your own ignorance on that one.




Well, maybe, but if you look at the economics of this, it's not that simple. Even with BR ahead by a 2-1 margin, you still have 8 guys on the BR side fighting it out and beating each other up while on the HDDVD side, you've got one fellar keeping all the profits for himself. One could hardly say that the BR camp is in a better position with this example.

Please tell me there is more than air between those ears. Having eight guys releasing eight different players all in different price catagories, and with different profile structures shows wide industry support for your format. This was part of the reason VHS beat beta. The burden is spread out amoung 8 different players(meaning companies) in the market. Toshiba has to shoulder the entire burden alone.

So let's test your theory on this scenario. If some local natural event happens that can effect Sony manufacturing plants in japan(a major earthquake lets say) you have 7 other manufacturers that can get a bluray player to market. If it effects Toshiba, that's it, no players to market. You don't think that is a negative for Toshiba, and a benefit for bluray?




Again, let's not be so simplistic, little Terrence. Those 8 months of HDDVD leading the race have allowed it to flood the market with products. You could look at it another way, it could just be that the BR camp is just catching up. For example, how many frees-standing HDDVD players are actually in people's homes compared to BR? I'm going to guess there are more HDDVD players, but I'm sure you can give us exact figures, right?

First, a flood is hardly what I would call Toshiba doing. They could only manufacture 50k A1 and XA1 in that 8 months, and they didn't come close to selling them all in that 8 month period. That comes from Toshiba themselves. They lost a ton of money on these players because they sold them at a loss from the onset. During that same time period there was only one bluray player on the market, and that was the Samsung BDP-1000, an average player at best. It sold meserably. Software sales were 1.5-1 in HD DVD favor. In November of 2006 Sony released its standalone player and the PS3, as did Pioneer. By January 2007 bluray was outselling HD DVD software by 2-1, and its remained that way since. In that same time period there were twice as many bluray players in peoples homes(thanks to the PS3) than HD DVD. It was just that simple. Trying to twist it another way is most definately misleading.




Well didn't you say that the studios were gona wait and see what the consumers will be doing this holiday season? I think your exact words were: "...Warner has already said (and confirmed by my good friend who is an executive there), that it will not make any decision on which side to take till after christmas. ... Paramount is HD DVD exclusive till christmas 2008, and Universal agreement is up at the end of this year." No, I think the studios are going to wait this out as well.

What you think is immaterial to the facts. Warner and Universal are the tipping point here. If Warner goes blu exclusive, the war is effectively over. If Universal goes neutral the war is over. Warner has already publicly stated that the window of oportunity is closing on HDM on disc, and that if one format starts to pull ahead of the other significantly, they will move there support to that format. Universal cannot afford to wait it out. Everyone knows that profits are falling on DVD sales, and they are running out of catalog titles to release. So the studios NEED for either HD DVD or Bluray to succeed and why this holiday season will decide many things. Wait it out, that is your uniformed opinion, but not the reality of the situation.




Hey what do you know, another contradiction.

That is not a contridiction of you actually read what I have previously said. Reading comprehension is good.




I intend to. It will be priceless to see you eat those words (although you're pretty good at denying it when you're already doing so).

You got me. It will be hard to pin you down on anything in this discussion. You have offered nothing. But we will see if a shipment of players falling into the sea will drive up the prices of players already on the shelves.




They butter your bread, don't they? You're a shill, just admit it!

Everyones job butters their bread. You are also a do nothing shill, just admit it winged one.




So what? They are paying you now, right? Your livelyhood depends on BR winning this war. How can you even stand here and tell us you're impartial?

My livelyhood depends on mixing soundtracks for theatrical release, and doing independ audio engineering for music. It does not depend on BR success or failure. Drumming this over and over doesn't make this fact. It just mean you are lying over and over again.





Boy that kind of wit is astounding...

for a 5th grader! 'Come on little Terrence, grow up.

Well if a fifth grader can see that you are as transparent as you are, then he is damn smart.




What a way to make a mountain out of a molehill. I said that the number of people owning both formats was insignificant, and then you say "It certainly doesn't ride to the height of those that have picked a side." This is exactly what I said, but you find a way to make it sound like more.

You said its odd, and nobody is going to purchase two players to support each format. I pointed out that many folks already have, and that it is not odd to want access to all of the studio HD offerings. You are trying to make nothing out of something no matter how small it is. Nobody knows exactly how many people have purchase both formats players. However if you leave audioreview and travel around to other websites, you will find that quite a few folks have already done it. Quite a few folks appear quite satisfied with their purchases, so much so that many list them in the signature just like I do.




Nice details but you can't say that's why the player's not selling - you're only speculating. I'll tell you why it's not selling: most people don't want both formats.

You have no idea of what most people want, did you ask them? That is exactly why the player isn't selling. Its too expensive, not certified as a HD DVD player, and not up to date with the HDMI connection. I can get a A2 and a PS3 for less than that player, and that is exactly what many dual format folks have done.



Are these facts enough to offset an 8 month head start by the HDDVD camp? How many players are actually in people's homes? For all you know this may just be BR catching up and riding that wave.

Apparently these fact are enough because it happen didn't it. Why am I asking you this, you don't appear to know much of anything about the subject.




I never said I would. I am only telling people that what you are presenting as facts is only part of the picture. You are so focussed on that one part that you can't even see that it's not complete. It's just childish, really, just like your petty insults. Grow up and show a backbone, already.

Okay, now here is an individual who hasn't a clue about the history of video formats. No clue about the details of anything to do with the HD format war. No clue about what venue soundtracks are created for. Thinks that players pricing is like trading pork bellies on the stock market, hasn't a clue about disc replication, doesn't read any online announcements or news regarding these HD formats, doesn't work in the industry, has no context or pespective concering the film industry, doesn't own a player from either format, and doesn't really know much about anything to do with the subject matter, but wants to debate the issue.

The only thing that you have proven in all of these pages of comments is that you have more balls than brains. Go to your local store, and buy a clue winged one.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Looks like that pesky HD-DVD format is back on top. For all those that had written it off, its selling quite a bit better than Blu-Ray now.

Heres the link:
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6488493.html?nid=3511


GB, if you are going to make a point on this issue, chose sources that are not interested parties. Here is what you link states

HD DVD set-tops have reclaimed their dominance over Blu-ray standalone players, according to weekly NPD Group unit sales figures cited by Toshiba.

Cited by Toshiba. Totally subjective source, very open to spin

HD DVD players began outselling Blu-ray models starting in mid-September and regained a year-to-date lead of a little over 50% through the rest of the month, said Jodi Sally, Toshiba VP of marketing of digital A/V products.

Toshiba VP of marketing? Spin spin spin. Even I don't use figures supported by Sony or the BDA as a basis for debates.

So you also realize that Toshiba(and Universal) count all components with a HD DVD drive in their sales figures(which includes the X Box add on under the guise of standalones) but completely omits the PS3 which has a built in drive just like the standalones. Do you realize the PS3(which has a built in bluray drive) is outselling ALL HD DVD standalones and external drives by a 4-1 figures weekly by itself? The last NDP overall sales figures for HD DVD standalones and drives worldwide number about 650k since inception. The sales numbers for all Bluray standalones and drives worldwide is over 6.5 million since inception. How is that for a little perspective.



Also, with the arrogance of the BD folks over at Fox, its no wonder people are turned off by the format. Fox is now releasing BD movies in a format some players are unable to play. Instead of making sure that all players will support the format, Fox is suggesting that consumers who purchased the movie (that won't play or be returned after opening) LOBBY their machine maker for an "update" that will allow playback.


In a format the players can't play?? All bluray players can play the bluray format. BD+ is not a format, its copy protection piracy scheme.

This problem is confined to certain Samsung machines, and the LG machine. LG and Samsung have already released their firmware upgrade to solve the problem. The DVD format also had glitches early in its life and no video product has ever come to market glitch free. Do you remember when there were a whole lot of DVD players that could not support Dts or dual layers?

Just recently Toshiba offered a firmware upgrade to my player to give it the capability for 24fps 1080p.
Well, the firmware upgrade was so buggy, so poorly done that it introduced lip sync issues, an issue that a previous firmware upgrade had taken care of. So much for HD DVD perfection.


At least HD-DVD mandates ethernet so that consumers can plug in and d/l updates as needed. Many BD machines don't have capabilities to even get online for patches/updates.

See here:

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/05/fox-says-its-not-our-fault-if-you-cant-play-our-movies/

You are conviently forgetting that every combo HD DVD ever released has caused problems with Toshiba HD DVD players. Another omission is just how many people have their ethernet connection actually hooked up to the net? Apparently not that many because Toshiba has consistantly run out of firware update disc because they cannot keep up with demand. My PS3 has a wifi connection that went to work updating my player the minute I plugged it in. BD+ is a part of the BD standards. So there is no arrogance in fox using it. Only HD DVD fanboys are turned off by BR, not the general public.

http://www.highdefforum.com/showthread.php?t=51016

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I told you I was waiting until I get the disc before making any more comments. Don't worry I am far from done with you.

Well I guess you got tired of making third party comments and observations huh?

Worried, not hardly. The arguement you put up was so weak, and enough holes shot into it, that you could serve it with wine and crackers, or it could double as a lawn sprinkler.

[PeruvianSkies]

Well I guess you got tired of making third party comments and observations huh?

Worried, not hardly. The arguement you put up was so weak, and enough holes shot into it, that you could serve it with wine and crackers, or it could double as a lawn sprinkler.

Actually I prefer to speak out of direct experience and was saving the rest of my comments until I had the disc in hand and could make further observations, unlike yourself who continues to make comments without first-hand knowledge.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Actually I prefer to speak out of direct experience and was saving the rest of my comments until I had the disc in hand and could make further observations, unlike yourself who continues to make comments without first-hand knowledge.

If my comment come without first hand knowledge, then how come you were unable to counter them.
I own the disc, and have watched it. Apparently you don't own it, and have never seen it. But it didn't stop you from making comments without first hand knowledge.

I hate to disappoint you, but my comments came straight from the mouth of Paidgeek on Bluray.com. He is a high level Sony Home Entertainment executive. You cannot get anymore first hand than that.

Counter that with your friends comments, and yours here. This was more like third hand knowledge.

[Groundbeef]

GB, if you are going to make a point on this issue, chose sources that are not interested parties. Here is what you link states

HD DVD set-tops have reclaimed their dominance over Blu-ray standalone players, according to weekly NPD Group unit sales figures cited by Toshiba.

Cited by Toshiba. Totally subjective source, very open to spin

Not so my friend. Unless you are saying that the NPD Group unit sales figures are also in bed with Toshiba. Thats like saying if Toshiba quotes sales figures from the WSJ or other business publications that those figures are also suspect. If you don't want to belive them, but why such hostility?




HD DVD players began outselling Blu-ray models starting in mid-September and regained a year-to-date lead of a little over 50% through the rest of the month, said Jodi Sally, Toshiba VP of marketing of digital A/V products.

Toshiba VP of marketing? Spin spin spin. Even I don't use figures supported by Sony or the BDA as a basis for debates.

So you also realize that Toshiba(and Universal) count all components with a HD DVD drive in their sales figures(which includes the X Box add on under the guise of standalones) but completely omits the PS3 which has a built in drive just like the standalones. Do you realize the PS3(which has a built in bluray drive) is outselling ALL HD DVD standalones and external drives by a 4-1 figures weekly by itself? The last NDP overall sales figures for HD DVD standalones and drives worldwide number about 650k since inception. The sales numbers for all Bluray standalones and drives worldwide is over 6.5 million since inception. How is that for a little perspective.

No more than Sony uses PS3 sales to support Blu-Ray player sales #'s. The XBOX add on is in fact a de-facto stand alone player. The only reason to buy it is to play HD-DVD movies. No other usable function. Unlike the PS3, it is a multi use drive.

Also, for "perspective" as you state, it is estimated that only 20% of PS3 users have/continue to use their machine as a BR movie player. So I guess your "outselling" 4-1 figure is a little inflated no? So if only 1 in 5 PS3 owners use it as a movie machine, I think that the HD-DVD standalone rate vs PS3 still holds up. HD-DVD standalones are for movies only. PS3, both games and movies.



In a format the players can't play?? All bluray players can play the bluray format. BD+ is not a format, its copy protection piracy scheme.

This problem is confined to certain Samsung machines, and the LG machine. LG and Samsung have already released their firmware upgrade to solve the problem. The DVD format also had glitches early in its life and no video product has ever come to market glitch free. Do you remember when there were a whole lot of DVD players that could not support Dts or dual layers?]

And not many DVD makers told their users to go stick it, and beg their machine makers to fix them.




You are conviently forgetting that every combo HD DVD ever released has caused problems with Toshiba HD DVD players. Another omission is just how many people have their ethernet connection actually hooked up to the net? Apparently not that many because Toshiba has consistantly run out of firware update disc because they cannot keep up with demand. My PS3 has a wifi connection that went to work updating my player the minute I plugged it in. BD+ is a part of the BD standards. So there is no arrogance in fox using it. Only HD DVD fanboys are turned off by BR, not the general public.

http://www.highdefforum.com/showthread.php?t=51016

Again my friend, I don't recall Toshiba telling any consumers to go pound sand. And bully for you with the wifi connection to your PS3. Try telling that to anyone else with a stand alone BR player, and they will look at you funny. HD mandates that all HD-DVD players have ethernet connectivity. Not BR. So they all have to get a physical disk sent to them.

Not that all HD-DVD consumers have their boxes online, but at least they are ABLE to do it. Unlike BR, where only SOME users can go online.

And the fanboy reference, nice. I guess if you get a royalty check from Sony, and blow your gasket when someone rains on your BR parade, it doesn't make YOU a BR fanboy...

[PeruvianSkies]

If my comment come without first hand knowledge, then how come you were unable to counter them.
I own the disc, and have watched it. Apparently you don't own it, and have never seen it. But it didn't stop you from making comments without first hand knowledge.

I hate to disappoint you, but my comments came straight from the mouth of Paidgeek on Bluray.com. He is a high level Sony Home Entertainment executive. You cannot get anymore first hand than that.

Counter that with your friends comments, and yours here. This was more like third hand knowledge.

This is a forum for discussion....I brought it up because it would seem that the majority of people out there were unhappy with the results from the Blu-ray disc. Therefore I put it out there for discussion made reference to what others were saying, my friend is highly knowledegable as well and his observations line up perfectly with what others were saying as well. If this transfer was so stunning and accurate than why is there so much buzz about how disappointing it is?

I am not pretending to be a scholar on Blu-ray, but I am knowledgeable on film and there should be no reason for the documentary on the Blu-ray to look better than the film presentation. Simply put. I also remember what the film looked like in theaters and it's interesting how Coppola now is changing his mind on what the original intent of the look of the film should have been, if both look different, which the frames that I have seen from the Blu-ray appear to demonstrate that exactly.

I am not claiming to be right or wrong and you get defensive about EVERYTHING. I am simply putting things out there for discussion, but you immediately attacked my statements on the BRAM STOKER comment and then skirted around for a few days without giving any clear answers. All of your comments that have been made are comments that you have taken from others anyway.

Again my earlier statement was that if this new transfer is so accurate than why or people disappointed by it???? Why do so many people recall the film looking different in theaters? Why does it look different in the documentary?

These are the questions you have failed to answer.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Not so my friend. Unless you are saying that the NPD Group unit sales figures are also in bed with Toshiba. Thats like saying if Toshiba quotes sales figures from the WSJ or other business publications that those figures are also suspect. If you don't want to belive them, but why such hostility?

Actually if you read any of this thread, there is a big reason not to trust any insterested party with NDP sales figures. I read NDP itself, not how Toshiba or Sony interprets the data. When they get involved, accurate figures can be twisted to support each's agenda. Read NDP directly, not through an interested parties news bleeps.



No more than Sony uses PS3 sales to support Blu-Ray player sales #'s. The XBOX add on is in fact a de-facto stand alone player. The only reason to buy it is to play HD-DVD movies. No other usable function. Unlike the PS3, it is a multi use drive.

The HD DVD add is not a de facto standalone. The software to drive the player rest in the XBOX itself, not in the drive. I cannot buy this player, and stick my disc in and it works. You must have an XBOX for it to function. Its an add on, a add on the Microsoft refuses to make internal. You plug a PS3 in, and play a movie. Its all in one box, just like the standalones. The PS3 is an entertainment center, not a game machine. While games can be played on it, so can DVD's, CD's, SACD, and bluray's, not to mention streaming music, and storing it as well. Gaming machines are really good with just games.


Also, for "perspective" as you state, it is estimated that only 20% of PS3 users have/continue to use their machine as a BR movie player.

Key word here is estimate. That means the figure has no surety. Nobody knows for sure how many folks use the machine as a player. But it is a player nevertheless


So I guess your "outselling" 4-1 figure is a little inflated no? So if only 1 in 5 PS3 owners use it as a movie machine, I think that the HD-DVD standalone rate vs PS3 still holds up. HD-DVD standalones are for movies only. PS3, both games and movies.

If one in five use the PS3 for movies, that would still mean over 1million players vs 650k for HD DVD. The point is not how the PS3 is used, it is what it contains. All PS3 are bluray players, and all can play the movies regardless if they are used for movie players or not.




And not many DVD makers told their users to go stick it, and beg their machine makers to fix them.

They essentially did tell them to stick it, the problem was unfixable.





Again my friend, I don't recall Toshiba telling any consumers to go pound sand. And bully for you with the wifi connection to your PS3. Try telling that to anyone else with a stand alone BR player, and they will look at you funny. HD mandates that all HD-DVD players have ethernet connectivity. Not BR. So they all have to get a physical disk sent to them.

I do not think Fox told anyone to go pound sand, that is an inflammatory statement with no basis in fact. Since both Samsung and LG have already released firmware upgrades to fix the issue, it is a non issue. A mandate does not control with the player is connected or not. If it is not connect, then the mandate was useless. Since most folks are not connect, then Toshiba has to mail an update disc. Something they have had problems doing every since the format was introduced. I know this for a fact, I had a player since two weeks after the format launched.


Not that all HD-DVD consumers have their boxes online, but at least they are ABLE to do it. Unlike BR, where only SOME users can go online.

Ability and execution are as far apart as Los Angeles is from New York.


And the fanboy reference, nice. I guess if you get a royalty check from Sony, and blow your gasket when someone rains on your BR parade, it doesn't make YOU a BR fanboy...

Did I mention that I get royalties from Sony? Did someone rain on my BR parade? Not a drop, still buying disc here. Fanboys have irrational logic, I am quick to point out that I do not listen to any sales figures, stats, or any twisted information coming from either Sony nor the BDA. However, you seem to trust Toshiba spin without question. That is the exact definition of a fanboy.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

This is a forum for discussion....I brought it up because it would seem that the majority of people out there were unhappy with the results from the Blu-ray disc. Therefore I put it out there for discussion made reference to what others were saying, my friend is highly knowledegable as well and his observations line up perfectly with what others were saying as well. If this transfer was so stunning and accurate than why is there so much buzz about how disappointing it is?

Already explain this, go back and read it. What did all these people compare it to? The answer is nothing.


I am not pretending to be a scholar on Blu-ray, but I am knowledgeable on film and there should be no reason for the documentary on the Blu-ray to look better than the film presentation. Simply put. I also remember what the film looked like in theaters and it's interesting how Coppola now is changing his mind on what the original intent of the look of the film should have been, if both look different, which the frames that I have seen from the Blu-ray appear to demonstrate that exactly.

How in the hell can you remember something visually from 1997. Science has already proven our threshold of comparison whether it be audio or visual is extremely short. What are you superhuman that you can do what nobody else can? You cannot compare the film to video. Its a non comparison, and that has been pointed out to your already.

The documentary was prefiltered before encoding, the film on bluray disc had no pre-filtering. You can have all of the knowledge of film you think you have, but if you don't know the encoding process for video, then all the film knowledge in the world isn't going to help you.


I am not claiming to be right or wrong and you get defensive about EVERYTHING. I am simply putting things out there for discussion, but you immediately attacked my statements on the BRAM STOKER comment and then skirted around for a few days without giving any clear answers. All of your comments that have been made are comments that you have taken from others anyway.

If you are going to put something out there for discussion, know what you are talking about. That is always helpful.


Again my earlier statement was that if this new transfer is so accurate than why or people disappointed by it???? Why do so many people recall the film looking different in theaters? Why does it look different in the documentary?

These are the questions you have failed to answer.

Didn't you read anything I posted before??? Please do so you don't ask the same questions over and over. I have already covered this.

[PeruvianSkies]

Already explain this, go back and read it. What did all these people compare it to? The answer is nothing.



How in the hell can you remember something visually from 1997. Science has already proven our threshold of comparison whether it be audio or visual is extremely short. What are you superhuman that you can do what nobody else can? You cannot compare the film to video. Its a non comparison, and that has been pointed out to your already.

.

And you know SOOooooo much about film, yet you don't even know what year the film came out.....TRY 1992!!! I also saw it in 2002 for the 10 year anniversary on 35mm film. Looks like you CAN make mistakes...not that you'll admit that and I am sure you'll somehow try to say that your 1997 mistake was referring to something else.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

And you know SOOooooo much about film, yet you don't even know what year the film came out.....TRY 1992!!!

Then this makes your claim "I remember what it looked like in the theater" even more inplausable.

Thanks for nailing your own coffin

It doesn't matter how many times you have seen it in the theaters, too much time has passed for you to remember what it looks like. And video cannot look like film, it will never, so that comparison, and even mentioning it is useless.

[PeruvianSkies]

Then this makes your claim "I remember what it looked like in the theater" even more inplausable.

Thanks for nailing your own coffin

Re-read my post.... and own up to your mistake.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Re-read my post.... and own up to your mistake.

It was a mistake. I hit the wrong key.

Now how do you explain the lie that your remember what it looked like at the theater? Admit you don't.

[PeruvianSkies]

It was a mistake. I hit the wrong key.

Now how do you explain the lie that your remember what it looked like at the theater? Admit you don't.

So you are saying that I can't remember how something sounds or what something looked like? Some people have the ability to recall amazing things, the brain is a powerful thing, but then again...you are using far less than the average human so I can understand if you have difficulty hitting the 2 button or the 7 button when you are typing things like 1997 or 1992. My memory of how the film looked in theater is consistent with others who saw it with me and others who saw it at different points in time. I don't need to see 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY to tell you what the 'red' looks like on the chairs on the space station to be pretty close to accurate. I do graphic design for a living and I am quite familiar with color by memory.

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

So you are saying that I can't remember how something sounds or what something looked like?

The threshold of memory is very short, science has already proven this. A day later, you may be able to remember some detail, but five years later, it is all but gone. You may remember the story line, but could you remember how it was lit on set? I seriously doubt it, that would be a superhuman capability.



Some people have the ability to recall amazing things, the brain is a powerful thing, but then again...you are using far less than the average human so I can understand if you have difficulty hitting the 2 button or the 7 button when you are typing things like 1997 or 1992.

Some people can, but they are the exception. If I am just using a little of my brain, then you are using none. Memory has nothing to do with hitting a 2 or a 7 on a keyboard. That just shows just how little you are currently using your brain.


My memory of how the film looked in theater is consistent with others who saw it with me and others who saw it at different points in time. I don't need to see 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY to tell you what the 'red' looks like on the chairs on the space station to be pretty close to accurate. I do graphic design for a living and I am quite familiar with color by memory.

How do you know your memory is consistant with others? Are you their brains?

Remembering the look of color is not that difficult. You see color everyday, and that is constant reinforcement to the memory. Remembering the visual detail of what you saw once five years ago is sketchy. If you tried to advance that claim to a person who knew better, they would tell you that you are crazy. So, I am telling you you're crazy.

[Groundbeef]

Actually if you read any of this thread, there is a big reason not to trust any insterested party with NDP sales figures. I read NDP itself, not how Toshiba or Sony interprets the data. When they get involved, accurate figures can be twisted to support each's agenda. Read NDP directly, not through an interested parties news bleeps. .

Frankly I have neither the time, or the energy to read industry reports. I'll let the paid experts break it down for me. Or non-paid, non-experts such as yourself.




The HD DVD add is not a de facto standalone. The software to drive the player rest in the XBOX itself, not in the drive. I cannot buy this player, and stick my disc in and it works. You must have an XBOX for it to function. Its an add on, a add on the Microsoft refuses to make internal. You plug a PS3 in, and play a movie. Its all in one box, just like the standalones. The PS3 is an entertainment center, not a game machine. While games can be played on it, so can DVD's, CD's, SACD, and bluray's, not to mention streaming music, and storing it as well. Gaming machines are really good with just games. .

While you are correct that you need the 360 to utilize the HD-DVD add-on drive, it would still be counted as a "stand alone" player. This is due to the fact that the ONLY reason for a consumer to plunk down 149-179 is to PLAY MOVIES. Unlike the dual-purpose PS3, where it is very difficult to determine the actual usage (either movie/game).

MS doesn't need to make the HD-DVD internal. It wouldn't add any functionality, but would make a nice boat anchor if HD-DVD does eventually die. If it does die, MS has already stated that a Blu-Ray add-on could be manufactured for the 360. And have you used a 360? If you are going to give PS (Peruvian Skies)such a hard time for blowing smoke, you ought to check your own ass. The 360 also functions as a competent media center. Unlike the PS3, however, you CAN d/l HD movies, TV shows, music, and conduct micro-transactions for gaming use. With the PS3....not so much. Oh yeah, you can also stream info from media center/vista computers, to include movies, music, and pictures. And the 360 even plays games. It'll be nice for Sony when they actually get some games out for their consumers.




Key word here is estimate. That means the figure has no surety. Nobody knows for sure how many folks use the machine as a player. But it is a player nevertheless.

Well, apparently you do. Contest my numbers oh grand seer of the unknown. What are they?



If one in five use the PS3 for movies, that would still mean over 1million players vs 650k for HD DVD. The point is not how the PS3 is used, it is what it contains. All PS3 are bluray players, and all can play the movies regardless if they are used for movie players or not..

No, thats not the point. If Sony and others are going to beat it into the ground how robust their PS3 is, its pretty much bull if no-one is actually using for movies.




I do not think Fox told anyone to go pound sand, that is an inflammatory statement with no basis in fact. Since both Samsung and LG have already released firmware upgrades to fix the issue, it is a non issue. A mandate does not control with the player is connected or not. If it is not connect, then the mandate was useless. Since most folks are not connect, then Toshiba has to mail an update disc. Something they have had problems doing every since the format was introduced. I know this for a fact, I had a player since two weeks after the format launched. .

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/05/fox-says-its-not-our-fault-if-you-cant-play-our-movies/

They suggest that if anyone's having problems playing the disc, that they should "lobby their hardware manufacturers to release firmware upgrades post haste." In effect, they are washing their hands of the problem. Once the disc is opened, and won't work, as a consumer you are SCREWED. Can't return open media...anywhere. BB, Circuit City, or anyother retail outlet that I am aware of. Sounds like their being told to pound sand to me.

Unless you like buying movies with crappy DRM schemes on, and then have to wait 2 weeks or more until an update is released.

Also, check your above statements about speculation. What exactly are your hard "facts" regarding internet connected HD-DVD players? You seem to have the pulse of the nation at your fingertips. So enlighten us. What is the actual percentage of HD-DVD players attached to ethernet connections?

Don't forget to in your assumption that there is a 100% chance that ANY HD-DVD player can connect to the internet. Not so much for BD. We are waiting Mr. Speculation for your answer.




Did I mention that I get royalties from Sony? Did someone rain on my BR parade? Not a drop, still buying disc here. Fanboys have irrational logic, I am quick to point out that I do not listen to any sales figures, stats, or any twisted information coming from either Sony nor the BDA. However, you seem to trust Toshiba spin without question. That is the exact definition of a fanboy.

Really? Are you sure about you not paying attention to info from Sony/BDA, after all, this little gem was posted not a few hours ago here on this board by you:



I hate to disappoint you, but my comments came straight from the mouth of Paidgeek on Bluray.com. He is a high level Sony Home Entertainment executive. You cannot get anymore first hand than that. .

Seems that you only pay attention to the things you want to, and not even to your own comments FANBOY!:sad:

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

Frankly I have neither the time, or the energy to read industry reports. I'll let the paid experts break it down for me. Or non-paid, non-experts such as yourself.

Well I hope you don't get tired of spin and half truths. That is all you are going to get from this though process. Gullible chap anyone?



While you are correct that you need the 360 to utilize the HD-DVD add-on drive, it would still be counted as a "stand alone" player. This is due to the fact that the ONLY reason for a consumer to plunk down 149-179 is to PLAY MOVIES. Unlike the dual-purpose PS3, where it is very difficult to determine the actual usage (either movie/game).

If it cannot function on its own, the drive is an extension of another component. That would be the XBOX. A standalone can function without any additional components, hence stand alone.

If you cannot determine actual usage, then its misleading to throw out a 20% figure, right?


MS doesn't need to make the HD-DVD internal. It wouldn't add any functionality, but would make a nice boat anchor if HD-DVD does eventually die. If it does die, MS has already stated that a Blu-Ray add-on could be manufactured for the 360.

You are correct about this, and this is also telling about microsofts commitment to HD DVD.


And have you used a 360? If you are going to give PS (Peruvian Skies)such a hard time for blowing smoke, you ought to check your own ass.

While we are checking asses, can you tell me why I would buy a 360 when I wanted a media center that could play blurays? I don't play kids games, so a 360 is useless to me.


The 360 also functions as a competent media center. Unlike the PS3, however, you CAN d/l HD movies, TV shows, music, and conduct micro-transactions for gaming use. With the PS3....not so much. Oh yeah, you can also stream info from media center/vista computers, to include movies, music, and pictures. And the 360 even plays games. It'll be nice for Sony when they actually get some games out for their consumers.

Hmmm, you don't know the PS3 very well. No D/L of HD movies??

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/13826/532/

Cannot do micro-transaction as well as 360? Not so..

http://www.totalvideogames.com/news/PS3_Gains_Micro-Transactions_7596_3307_0.htm



Well, apparently you do. Contest my numbers oh grand seer of the unknown. What are they?

There is nothing to contest. Your numbers specifically states ESTIMATE. What is the point in debating an estimate?




No, thats not the point. If Sony and others are going to beat it into the ground how robust their PS3 is, its pretty much bull if no-one is actually using for movies.

It absolutely is the point. If nobody is actually using it for movies, how do you explain bluray movies sales overtaking HD DVD in just one single month after the PS3 was released? How do you explain bluray continual 2-1 software lead in sales since the beginning of the year if you believe HD DVD are outselling BR standalones(and that is only here in the states, we haven't even discussed worldwide yet).





http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/05/fox-says-its-not-our-fault-if-you-cant-play-our-movies/

They suggest that if anyone's having problems playing the disc, that they should "lobby their hardware manufacturers to release firmware upgrades post haste." In effect, they are washing their hands of the problem. Once the disc is opened, and won't work, as a consumer you are SCREWED. Can't return open media...anywhere. BB, Circuit City, or anyother retail outlet that I am aware of. Sounds like their being told to pound sand to me.

They meaning engaget? What the heck do they know? Have they reported that the firmware fix is already out? No report of that yet huh?

Secondly, once you install the firmware the disc plays just fine. Everyone over at Bluray.com is reporting as such. So all of the bull**** about returning the disc and nobody will take it back is just bull****. If you bought the disc, and installed the firmware, the disc will play. No need to take it back. Spreading your own brand of FUD beefster?


Unless you like buying movies with crappy DRM schemes on, and then have to wait 2 weeks or more until an update is released.


Also, check your above statements about speculation. What exactly are your hard "facts" regarding internet connected HD-DVD players? You seem to have the pulse of the nation at your fingertips. So enlighten us. What is the actual percentage of HD-DVD players attached to ethernet connections?

Did I mention hard facts? I don't think so. I said that it couldn't be that many because Toshiba has had problems keeping up with demand on their firmware discs(long delays on every firmware upgrade). If there was any significant numbers that were hook up to the net, then this would not be a problem would it? Simple logic beef type individual.


Don't forget to in your assumption that there is a 100% chance that ANY HD-DVD player can connect to the internet. Not so much for BD. We are waiting Mr. Speculation for your answer.

A 100% chance it can, and a 100% chance they are is a gulf as wide as the grand canyon. Wrong again beefy. The lion share of the bluray players sold are PS3 which are wifi capable out the box. There are far more net capable bluray players than HD DVD players based on that fact.





Really? Are you sure about you not paying attention to info from Sony/BDA, after all, this little gem was posted not a few hours ago here on this board by you:

Rather than picking my comments out of a completely unrelated topic(very misleading) why don't you tell everyone what I was referring two?

When I made that comment, it was in regard to a PQ issue with Bram Strokers Dracula, not a sales figure from Sony. This shows just how weak and unbelieveable your own arguements appear to even yourself. You had to try and mislead just to support a weakness in your arguement. Pitiful indeed.




Seems that you only pay attention to the things you want to, and not even to your own comments FANBOY!:sad:

Let's see. You blindly believe sales figures quoted by an interested party, and take the spin as truth. You mislead and spread FUD knowingly. I see that you didn't even touch my comments on the combo disc, or the associated link. So you like to accuse people of doing things that you are doing as well.
That is a true sign of a fanboy, so I am placing a mirror in front of you. Fan meet boy, boy...fan.

[PeruvianSkies]

Well I hope you don't get tired of spin and half truths. That is all you are going to get from this though process. Gullible chap anyone?




If it cannot function on its own, the drive is an extension of another component. That would be the XBOX. A standalone can function without any additional components, hence stand alone.

If you cannot determine actual usage, then its misleading to throw out a 20% figure, right?



You are correct about this, and this is also telling about microsofts commitment to HD DVD.



While we are checking asses, can you tell me why I would buy a 360 when I wanted a media center that could play blurays? I don't play kids games, so a 360 is useless to me.



Hmmm, you don't know the PS3 very well. No D/L of HD movies??

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/13826/532/

Cannot do micro-transaction as well as 360? Not so..

http://www.totalvideogames.com/news/PS3_Gains_Micro-Transactions_7596_3307_0.htm




There is nothing to contest. Your numbers specifically states ESTIMATE. What is the point in debating an estimate?





It absolutely is the point. If nobody is actually using it for movies, how do you explain bluray movies sales overtaking HD DVD in just one single month after the PS3 was released? How do you explain bluray continual 2-1 software lead in sales since the beginning of the year if you believe HD DVD are outselling BR standalones(and that is only here in the states, we haven't even discussed worldwide yet).






They meaning engaget? What the heck do they know? Have they reported that the firmware fix is already out? No report of that yet huh?

Secondly, once you install the firmware the disc plays just fine. Everyone over at Bluray.com is reporting as such. So all of the bull**** about returning the disc and nobody will take it back is just bull****. If you bought the disc, and installed the firmware, the disc will play. No need to take it back. Spreading your own brand of FUD beefster?





Did I mention hard facts? I don't think so. I said that it couldn't be that many because Toshiba has had problems keeping up with demand on their firmware discs(long delays on every firmware upgrade). If there was any significant numbers that were hook up to the net, then this would not be a problem would it? Simple logic beef type individual.



A 100% chance it can, and a 100% chance they are is a gulf as wide as the grand canyon. Wrong again beefy. The lion share of the bluray players sold are PS3 which are wifi capable out the box. There are far more net capable bluray players than HD DVD players based on that fact.






Rather than picking my comments out of a completely unrelated topic(very misleading) why don't you tell everyone what I was referring two?

When I made that comment, it was in regard to a PQ issue with Bram Strokers Dracula, not a sales figure from Sony. This shows just how weak and unbelieveable your own arguements appear to even yourself. You had to try and mislead just to support a weakness in your arguement. Pitiful indeed.





Let's see. You blindly believe sales figures quoted by an interested party, and take the spin as truth. You mislead and spread FUD knowingly. I see that you didn't even touch my comments on the combo disc, or the associated link. So you like to accuse people of doing things that you are doing as well.
That is a true sign of a fanboy, so I am placing a mirror in front of you. Fan meet boy, boy...fan.

You act like you are the only person around here with inside information to the movie industry and such. I've worked on a handful of films shot in Pittsburgh and I am also friends with one of the producers on the upcoming TERMINATOR 4 film. I may be younger than you and might have less experience due to that fact, but that doesn't change my ability to know things that maybe you don't. I have studied film for a number of years and also worked as an intern with the worlds premier scholar on Max Ophuls. You attempt to talk down to people because you feel that you are superior and always right about everything. I am willing to admit where my strong points are and where my weaknesses are.

[Woochifer]

You attempt to talk down to people because you feel that you are superior and always right about everything.

There you go talking to yourself again! :out:

Nonetheless this is about as honest and forthright an admission about one's self as I've read from anyone on this board, so you got kudos from me! Such capacity for introspection is oh so rare! :cornut:


I am willing to admit where my strong points are and where my weaknesses are.

:lol::lol::lol: Yer too funny! Oh Please! Stop it before I spit up some more! :lol::lol::lol:

[PeruvianSkies]

The arguments here are between Sir T and Nightflier, Sir T and Me, and Sir T and Groundbeef. We are discussing things that relate to Blu-ray.

Notice how people like Woochifer, LJ, and Kex are contributing NOTHING to the actually discussion and debate, but rather attacking me for my discussion and arguments.

It's no wonder people don't come around here anymore.

[pixelthis]

This is a forum for discussion....I brought it up because it would seem that the majority of people out there were unhappy with the results from the Blu-ray disc. Therefore I put it out there for discussion made reference to what others were saying, my friend is highly knowledegable as well and his observations line up perfectly with what others were saying as well. If this transfer was so stunning and accurate than why is there so much buzz about how disappointing it is?

I am not pretending to be a scholar on Blu-ray, but I am knowledgeable on film and there should be no reason for the documentary on the Blu-ray to look better than the film presentation. Simply put. I also remember what the film looked like in theaters and it's interesting how Coppola now is changing his mind on what the original intent of the look of the film should have been, if both look different, which the frames that I have seen from the Blu-ray appear to demonstrate that exactly.

I am not claiming to be right or wrong and you get defensive about EVERYTHING. I am simply putting things out there for discussion, but you immediately attacked my statements on the BRAM STOKER comment and then skirted around for a few days without giving any clear answers. All of your comments that have been made are comments that you have taken from others anyway.

Again my earlier statement was that if this new transfer is so accurate than why or people disappointed by it???? Why do so many people recall the film looking different in theaters? Why does it look different in the documentary?

These are the questions you have failed to answer.

The film is always going to look different in theaters.
Its going to change as displaying prints goes to high def 2000p video, but film is going
to look like, well, film. There are slight variations in moviehouses but basically the print is what you get.
home video is more problematic. When you can't get two video displays to look alike,
why worry about more than major changes in the disc?
Thats why tv sets have color controls, and its a constant gripe of mine that people
don't tweak their sets for a paticular presentation.
Even with digital cable , which is more constant, you constantly have to adjust your set for slight variations, and what you wind up with is what YOU like.
If the print is too "red", TURN DOWN THE RED. Your finger aint broke.
A lot of DVD's push red like nobodies business.
And a lot of folks are going to be "disapointed" with the hi-def formats, myself included.
Do they look better than DVD? Absolutely.
Enough to worry about paying 499 for a player?
NOPE.
I even saw video noise on a copy of Talledega nights (moire patterns in the empty stadium)
I will get one. eventually, probably when my ship comes in (its called the titanic)
But watching my video collection of Sheryl CROW a few days ago reminded me of just how good DVD can be. I am in no hurry:1:

[Feanor]

I'm appalled by the amount of ridiculous bickering that's going on here. I finding very depressing that inteligent people are will to invest such time and energy hair-splitting and name-calling over something as inconsequential in the big picture as a Blu-ray HD-DVD debate. Consider that if we are willing to come to virtual fisticuffs over this sort of thing, it's no wonder that the world is in such bad shape when it comes to world piece, the environment, pollution, worker exploitation, social harmony, famine, plague, etc.

Yes, inconsequential: it needs to be said. Hi-rez video, like hi-rez audio, isn't necessary to anyone other than the corporate exploiters who ever seek frivolous, if not blantantly fraudulent, means to transfer money from our pockets to theirs.

[Groundbeef]

Well I hope you don't get tired of spin and half truths. That is all you are going to get from this though process. Gullible chap anyone?

Do you get interference from your tinfoil hat when you sit down to bloviate on this board? Even you rely on someone else's expertise, numbers or other data to form your opinions, and usually incorrect assumptions. So whos more gullible? The guy who admits that he uses other data examined by others more qualified, or someone like yourself who discount's data simply because it doesn't buttress your rather weak arguments?




If it cannot function on its own, the drive is an extension of another component. That would be the XBOX. A standalone can function without any additional components, hence stand alone.

I'll only give you 1/2 a point. Technically it wouldn't qualify as a "standalone" in the aspect that it doesn't work without either an xbox 360 or a vista PC with the correct software. However, you need to take your blinders off if you can't admit the ONLY reason someone would purchase it is to watch movies. Because that is its ONLY function. This would differentiate it from the PS3, who can play games AND decode Blu-Ray movies. However, the difference is huge. PS3, cannont be counted as a 1 to 1 translation between sales, and movie players. Some people may NEVER use the PS3 to watch Blu-Ray movies. But a consumer that buys the HD-DVD drive for the 360 most certainly is going to watch movies, because its the ONLY thing it does. See the difference, or are you going to continue on this thread?




If you cannot determine actual usage, then its misleading to throw out a 20% figure, right?


And what basis are you suggesting that 20% is inaccurate? Do you have a better %?



You are correct about this, and this is also telling about microsofts commitment to HD DVD.

And that would be what? That MS didn't want to saddle users with a feature that many won't utilize? Or that MS felt that if a consumer wants HD video they will buy it later? Or go the PS3 route and jam unneeded tech down a consumers throat and charge them a mint (console cost wise) for it?




While we are checking asses, can you tell me why I would buy a 360 when I wanted a media center that could play blurays? I don't play kids games, so a 360 is useless to me].

If you want a PS3, have one. No one said you shouldn't buy it. I hope you enjoy yours. And the comment about "kids games", care to elaborate, or are you going to leave it at that? Perhaps you had forgotten that the PS3 simply doesn't even have 1/4 of the library of the 360?




Hmmm, you don't know the PS3 very well. No D/L of HD movies??

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/13826/532/


And you must have forgotten how to read. Unless you live in New Zealand, or Australia, this isn't going to do you much good. There are NO plans to expand this to North America. And considering it is incompatible with both ASTC and the Digital Signal in the US, it doesn't appear to be all that compelling! And that's straight from Sony, so I guess I shouldn't trust it.

However, the 360 is currently the largest provider of HD content delivered on demand. It surpasses cable, sat, and ITunes. Sony....not so much.






Cannot do micro-transaction as well as 360? Not so..

http://www.totalvideogames.com/news/PS3_Gains_Micro-Transactions_7596_3307_0.htm


Never said they couldn't do them. Was responding to you suggesting that only the PS3 was a "media center". BTW nice article from 2005. The way technology moves these days, its comforting to see that the best you can do is over 2 years old! Nice work. Almost had to dig that one up from microfishe?



There is nothing to contest. Your numbers specifically states ESTIMATE. What is the point in debating an estimate?

I don't know. You didn't like my numbers. So tell me why they are wrong. Do you have more accurate numbers?




It absolutely is the point. If nobody is actually using it for movies, how do you explain bluray movies sales overtaking HD DVD in just one single month after the PS3 was released? How do you explain bluray continual 2-1 software lead in sales since the beginning of the year if you believe HD DVD are outselling BR standalones(and that is only here in the states, we haven't even discussed worldwide yet).

Never said "no one" is using it for movies. And I guess since the PS3 doesn't actually have games worth playing, people are using it for movies. Like any $600 gaming machine should be used!




They meaning engaget? What the heck do they know? Have they reported that the firmware fix is already out? No report of that yet huh?

Secondly, once you install the firmware the disc plays just fine. Everyone over at Bluray.com is reporting as such. So all of the bull**** about returning the disc and nobody will take it back is just bull****. If you bought the disc, and installed the firmware, the disc will play. No need to take it back. Spreading your own brand of FUD beefster?

Got a better source? Dig one up from 2004 perhaps...I'm sure they are more accurate. And not being able to return open media is not BS. If I bought a movie, and couldn't watch because of some crappy DRM, I'd want to return it. And, chances are, if I owned a stand alone BR player, I would have to wait for a physical update to be sent to me, because ethernet ISN"T mandated. So yeah, I'd return it. No FUD here, just more smoke and mirrors from you.



Did I mention hard facts? I don't think so. I said that it couldn't be that many because Toshiba has had problems keeping up with demand on their firmware discs(long delays on every firmware upgrade). If there was any significant numbers that were hook up to the net, then this would not be a problem would it? Simple logic beef type individual.

No, you didn't mention hard facts. In fact, usually you don't. It's easier to defend your position if you don't actually have any info to back it up. You can keep shifting position to match your target. And when you do find info its out of date, or so old its useless. Please for the record, post ANY current data supporting your statement that Toshiba is having trouble keeping up with firmware discs.



A 100% chance it can, and a 100% chance they are is a gulf as wide as the grand canyon. Wrong again beefy. The lion share of the bluray players sold are PS3 which are wifi capable out the box. There are far more net capable bluray players than HD DVD players based on that fact.

Wrong again. The Terrible part, must be your math ablities. 100% of HD-DVD players are internet (ethernet port onboard) cabable. Thats stand alone, 360 addon, 100% every one.

All PS3's are internet ready. I will agree to that. But not ALL standalone BR players are internet able. So, on your face you are again WRONG. It must suck being knocked down at every turn. But I wait for your "magic" math to come back.







Rather than picking my comments out of a completely unrelated topic(very misleading) why don't you tell everyone what I was referring two?

When I made that comment, it was in regard to a PQ issue with Bram Strokers Dracula, not a sales figure from Sony. This shows just how weak and unbelieveable your own arguements appear to even yourself. You had to try and mislead just to support a weakness in your arguement. Pitiful indeed.

It doesn't matter what the topic was. When you berate me for using a source with a phrase like:



Toshiba VP of marketing? Spin spin spin. Even I don't use figures supported by Sony or the BDA as a basis for debates.

And then in a parallel conversation say:



I hate to disappoint you, but my comments came straight from the mouth of Paidgeek on Bluray.com. He is a high level Sony Home Entertainment executive. You cannot get anymore first hand than that.

So what is it? You only use Sony sources when it is convienient for YOU? Or you only mean you dismiss others arguements when YOU don't like their source? Pretty convienent way to run a debate. Waffle on your own convictions to support your ill-logical and poorly worded arguments. Only to be supported by outdated, and information that contridicts your points (Oh sure the PS3 supports HD downloads....in New Zealand)





Let's see. You blindly believe sales figures quoted by an interested party, and take the spin as truth. You mislead and spread FUD knowingly. I see that you didn't even touch my comments on the combo disc, or the associated link. So you like to accuse people of doing things that you are doing as well.
That is a true sign of a fanboy, so I am placing a mirror in front of you. Fan meet boy, boy...fan.

I can't honestly counter the combo disc arguement, as like you my HD player is online. So it d/l any needed "fixes" on the fly. But I don't recall any online articles showcasing Toshiba as implementing any shoddy DRM measures, and then telling consumers to beg the HD-DVD player mfg to "support" them.

No mirror needed. I prefer MS, and apparently you prefer Sony. I think it's safe to say that both companies have warts on product performance. No fanboy hysteria needed to showcase either companies shortcomings.

[Groundbeef]

I'm appalled by the amount of ridiculous bickering that's going on here. I finding very depressing that inteligent people are will to invest such time and energy hair-splitting and name-calling over something as inconsequential in the big picture as a Blu-ray HD-DVD debate. Consider that if we are willing to come to virtual fisticuffs over this sort of thing, it's no wonder that the world is in such bad shape when it comes to world piece, the environment, pollution, worker exploitation, social harmony, famine, plague, etc.

Yes, inconsequential: it needs to be said. Hi-rez video, like hi-rez audio, isn't necessary to anyone other than the corporate exploiters who ever seek frivolous, if not blantantly fraudulent, means to transfer money from our pockets to theirs.

So appalled that you felt compelled to write? How touching. I do rather like the "intelligent people" comment though.

Seeing as this is an AV board, it's pretty unlikely that I'm going to tie my preferred movie platform into a Greenpeace, granola eatin', tree-huggin, PETA, cheer-fest. And don't forget those poor souls in Darfour, and for godsake, don't forget THE CHILDREN. Thats what the HD-DVD/BluRay debate is all about after all. What are we going to leave OUR CHILDREN?????

If you don't like the thread, move along. Or start your own. And then we will come check it out.

[L.J.]

The arguments here are between Sir T and Nightflier, Sir T and Me, and Sir T and Groundbeef. We are discussing things that relate to Blu-ray.

Notice how people like Woochifer, LJ, and Kex are contributing NOTHING to the actually discussion and debate, but rather attacking me for my discussion and arguments.

PS, perhaps you need to go back and reread this thread. Several of your posts in this thread have been nothing but troll attempts and personal attacks that had nothing to do with the subject. How quickly you forget that a mod had to delete one of your posts for insulting another member. The reason for deletion was "rude personal attack". How was that post related to the discussion?

What about this recent thread (http://forums.audioreview.com/showthread.php?p=209568#post209568). Your first comment was a personal attack that had nothing to do with the subject at hand. Look at your own actions before you go runnin' off pointing fingers.

[Feanor]

So appalled that you felt compelled to write? How touching. I do rather like the "intelligent people" comment though.

Seeing as this is an AV board, it's pretty unlikely that I'm going to tie my preferred movie platform into a Greenpeace, granola eatin', tree-huggin, PETA, cheer-fest. And don't forget those poor souls in Darfour, and for godsake, don't forget THE CHILDREN. Thats what the HD-DVD/BluRay debate is all about after all. What are we going to leave OUR CHILDREN?????

If you don't like the thread, move along. Or start your own. And then we will come check it out.

I can say what I want as freely as anyone, as for example, you, Groundbeef.

I didn't say I give a damn about the children of Darfur; only that such issues are more worthy of heated debate than Blu-ray vs. HDDVD.

What I did say -- and which is perfectly relevant to this thread -- is that hi-rez video is frivolous as an improvement over standard DVD, implying that most people would do well to save their money at least for the time being. Care to debate that??