What's the deal with HD radio? [Archive] - Audio & Video Forums

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Mr Peabody
08-03-2007, 09:57 PM
So far on newer receivers the only built in HD tuners I've seen have been on the top of the line or so of very few brands. If this is the next big thing of over the air radio shouldn't it be coming on all receivers? You hear the advertising, it's been here for at least a year, or more, why is it we can only buy an HD radio in an expensive clock radio or a few car stereos? Something is wrong with this picture. HD radio is the most bassackwards product I've seen hit, or almost hit, the market in a long time.

I don't know who paid the bill for all the radio stations to become HD but if it was the companies themselves, they will be taking it in the shorts for a long time over this expenditure. Broadcasting over the internet has to be several times more fruitful.

Anyone have any insight on this issue?

Woochifer
08-04-2007, 12:48 PM
The advertising you hear is ClearChannel and CBS Radio (among others) trying to increase/preserve the value of their radio station licenses. HD Radio allows them to multicast their programming, thus multiplying the number of feeds they can put over the airwaves in a given market. The broadcasters have a clear stake in promoting HD Radio, because they are in competition with satellite radio and internet streaming. Multicasting puts terrestrial radio on more of an even playing field with those competing formats, because it allows radio stations to create more specialized programming, much like you find on XM and Sirius.

The hardware side is a bit dicier. It's hard for hardware manufacturers to pony up for HD Radio licenses, if consumers as of yet don't know much about it. I think the major push with HD Radio will occur with OEM new car installations. It's no coincidence that there's much more HD Radio hardware available right now for car stereos than for home audio. But, I think the future of HD Radio will hinge on whether they can make their way into new OEM car audio systems. This is not a slam dunk since XM and Sirius are making the same push, and unlike with HD Radio and its myriad of licensees, a subscription-based service like XM has a revenue-based rationale for subsidizing the hardware costs. Home audio is more of an afterthought since more people listen to radio in the car than they do at home.

nightflier
08-04-2007, 04:49 PM
I think the competition between XM and Sirius was what kept them from really putting up a real fight for the public's mindshare. Now that they are merging, I think HD is in real trouble. Product lines for HD have hardly grown in the last couple of years, and this is telling.

There was a time when HD radio, HDTV, and HD-DVD all had a ring of "future technology," while non-HD-labeled products had to compete for attention. However, those other labeled products, most of them more expensive and more proprietary, are likely to pull ahead on all fronts. Even HDTV has so many different settings (from 480p to 1080p), that people hardly know what it is anymore. Cable companies are pushing Digital tv as if it was HD, and much of it isn't, but most of their customers don't know the difference anyhow.

Just ask someone at BB or CC what HD radio is, and I'll bet you that 9 out of 10 wouldn't be able to give you a correct answer. The fact that HD is not appearing on hardware is the single largest hurdle the format suffers from. Who cares if most radio stations broadcast in HD? Who has a radio to hear it? And let's not even talk about all the car radios. What's the point with all the ambient noise? If the format touts better sound, then that should be heard in people's homes.

Personally I feel about HD radio about the same as I feel about politicians who don't fulfill their promises (and there's plenty of them to go around). For the same reason that people don't vote, people also won't be listening to HD radio: because after all the talk and promises, there are no results. The HD consortium should be fired, but just like in politics, it looks like that will take years too...

Mr Peabody
08-04-2007, 07:07 PM
HD radio has been mishandled for sure but at least only themselves and maybe a few other rich corporations will be hurt by it. The crooks are the terds behind HDMI. I will try to restrain myself from going there. I hear you NF.

hifitommy
08-05-2007, 04:06 PM
there are myriad HD stations and a sangean tuner like mine can be had at frys for $150! the review at PFO says a lot:

http://positive-feedback.com/Issue30/sangean_hdt.htm

i paid more than the 150 i just saw as a regular price at frys. i dont feel bad about it. when i listen to kkjz in sylmar, there is NO noise. my regular tuner suffered from occasional atmospheric interference but that hasnt happened with the HDT-1. i run a $20 ratshack fm antenna on the roof. thats a good recommendation anyway.

bobsticks
08-05-2007, 04:41 PM
Great heads-up Tommy. I wasn't even sure if affordable standalone players were out there yet and, obviously, the few that have been were priced in the stratosphere. I might have to pick up one of those bad boys for sh**s and giggles. Here's a link that I just found regarding availability of HD Radio...

http://www.ibiquity.com/hd_radio/hdradio_find_a_station/IN

Mr Peabody
08-05-2007, 05:13 PM
The problem is not the stations. My town has a boat load. My beef is what's out there to pick them up on. I don't want to listen to music on a clock radio. If one was cheap enough I might buy one for work. I don't want to pay $150.00 for something that might walk out of my cubicle. I'd like to get a stand alone tuner. A nice portable like the Sirius Stilletto or XM's Helix would be cool too.

I was shocked that the newer receivers didn't have HD tuners rather than the old analog. The company behind HD must be doing something to stagnate it's progress.

hifitommy
08-05-2007, 05:43 PM
that these are idiots like sony who didnt support their technology for sacd. i noticed in the indiana hd stations that there werent any JAZZ stations. what are these dolts thinking?

Woochifer
08-05-2007, 06:27 PM
I think the competition between XM and Sirius was what kept them from really putting up a real fight for the public's mindshare. Now that they are merging, I think HD is in real trouble. Product lines for HD have hardly grown in the last couple of years, and this is telling.

Actually, the product lines have grown quite a bit, but just not much for the home audio component market. Like I said, what will make or break HD Radio is getting into OEM car audio installations. That's where the biggest potential audience is, and it's where HD Radio has to make the biggest inroads against satellite radio, since XM and Sirius have had a huge headstart partnering up with new car manufacturers. Also, I read that a big push into the portable devices market could start up soon because low power HD Radio decoding chips better suited to portable applications are due out. Analog FM tuners I know can cause a lot of interference in tight quarters, and consume a good amount of battery power. If digital radio broadcasts can get around these issues, then it's conceivable to see more radio tuners make their way into MP3 players.

The radio stations have already invested in HD Radio broadcasts -- you now have multiple HD Radio stations in just about every media market. They've upgraded their signals, and done tons of free advertising on behalf of the format -- the broadcasters have done their part. Short of passing out free HD Radio tuners, there's not much more that they can do to get HD Radio off the ground.

Compared to satellite radio, HD Radio has the disadvantage of not having the hardware subsidized like with XM and Sirius. Problem is that HD Radio is tied to "free" broadcast radio, and as such, consumers don't like to pay for radio hardware. Think about it. Most of us don't buy standalone AM/FM tuners. The radio feature is thrown in as part of another purchase -- receiver, car audio head unit, boombox, tabletop clock, etc. If we had to pay for the radio tuner separately on all of our devices, how many of us would actually do so? I know that on my receiver, the radio tuner is by far the least used source, and the only one that I did not have to buy separately.


Just ask someone at BB or CC what HD radio is, and I'll bet you that 9 out of 10 wouldn't be able to give you a correct answer. The fact that HD is not appearing on hardware is the single largest hurdle the format suffers from. Who cares if most radio stations broadcast in HD? Who has a radio to hear it? And let's not even talk about all the car radios. What's the point with all the ambient noise? If the format touts better sound, then that should be heard in people's homes.

Personally I feel about HD radio about the same as I feel about politicians who don't fulfill their promises (and there's plenty of them to go around). For the same reason that people don't vote, people also won't be listening to HD radio: because after all the talk and promises, there are no results. The HD consortium should be fired, but just like in politics, it looks like that will take years too...

Who should be getting fired if consumers generally don't like paying for broadcast radio?

Go to a store, of course the employees won't know what you're talking about. If you'd walked into the same store in 2000 and asked questions about HDTV, you would have gotten the same blank looks. It took a long time for that market to develop, and even now HDTV household penetration is about 1/3 at best. Personally, I don't think radio is much of a priority for most people. I know that I hardly ever use the radio tuner on my main system, and primarily listen to radio in my car system.

I think HD Radio will take off once it makes its way into more car audio systems and portable devices, which is really how most people listen to radio anyway. This isn't like AM stereo, which didn't do much for sound quality or programming, yet still wound up making its way into numerous OEM car stereos. The radio station conglomerates are looking for an edge against satellite radio, and HD Radio is their best weapon right now, so I don't see them giving up anytime soon. The only question is whether enough consumers care to upgrade their radios to hear these HD Radio broadcasts. This is why I think HD Radio has to focus on the mobile markets first, and then there might be a spillover into home use if it gets widely adopted in the mobile market.

Woochifer
08-05-2007, 06:39 PM
that these are idiots like sony who didnt support their technology for sacd. i noticed in the indiana hd stations that there werent any JAZZ stations. what are these dolts thinking?

Well, unfortunately I think most radio station owners are more drawn to the multicasting capabilities on HD Radio than any of the sound quality improvements. Even with the improved bandwidth, many of the corporate-owned radio stations nowadays use digital media servers and compress the audio signal before it even leaves the studio. I also read that HD Radio has been making surprising inroads in rural markets, and that might be where the reduction in static makes more of a difference with those low powered stations.

HD Radio basically is an easy sell to the broadcasters because it potentially increases the value of their broadcast licenses and helps them compete against satellite radio. It's a much harder sell to component manufacturers, because the radio tuner is nowadays considered more of a throw-in feature than something that generates sales. Hard to justify the extra licensing and hardware costs if most consumers don't care about it. In a way, HD Radio is caught in a difficult spot because they cannot subsidize the hardware like XM and Sirius can, yet they need to make inroads into important markets like the OEM car audio market.

nightflier
08-06-2007, 12:38 PM
Wooch,

I have to disagree. For one, I listen to my tuner quite a bit and it's an old one too, with (gasp) a rotary dial and no presets. I've had fancier digital ones from Marantz and Onkyo, but this Nikko sounds quite good and cost me just $20. Of course, since I listen to classical most of the time, and I live in the LA area, I don't really change the station much. But long-story-short, I do listen to FM quite a bit, and would wager to guess that on an audio forum such as this one, you'd find quite a few people who own higher-end tuners and enjoy them plenty as well.

As for car audio, I disagree as well. That's where HD radio has been trying to compete and frankly, that's not been going well for them, has it? HD radio is a high-definition format, which by its name implies better sound. If people can't hear that, then why should they bother? In a car, they're not going to hear that. For me, and several other people I know who listen to classical music, the prospect of listening to distant radio stations with greater fidelity and less static is the very reason why HD radio remains on our radars.

I really believe that in addition to a pathetic marketing campaign, HD radio has been pushing in entirely the wrong markets. I, for one, am going to take a serious look at that Sangean player that Tommy suggested. At $150 it's still a bit pricey, but who knows, maybe I can find a used one for a much better price. I'm sorry that radio is not that important to you, but I know lots of people for who it is.

Come to think of it, what about the millions of small shop owners who don't want to pay for XM/Sirius or cable service? They're typically looking to minimize cost, right? And using a clock radio to play music throughout their stores really isn't an option. They would be much better served with a component-type tuner. Granted this isn't a hi-fi application, but a store is also not an environment where static and bad reception would be acceptable. Besides, they will usually already have some kind of amp and CD player set up, so adding a tuner is a no-brainer. What about assembly shops, manufacturing assembly lines, restaurant kitchens? Currently they are all listing to staticky FM.

The point is that there are lots of applications that the HD radio consortium is completely ignoring, to their detriment.

Woochifer
08-06-2007, 04:01 PM
Wooch,

I have to disagree. For one, I listen to my tuner quite a bit and it's an old one too, with (gasp) a rotary dial and no presets. I've had fancier digital ones from Marantz and Onkyo, but this Nikko sounds quite good and cost me just $20. Of course, since I listen to classical most of the time, and I live in the LA area, I don't really change the station much. But long-story-short, I do listen to FM quite a bit, and would wager to guess that on an audio forum such as this one, you'd find quite a few people who own higher-end tuners and enjoy them plenty as well.

But, again you're in the minority. It's well documented that radio stations focus their programming towards the morning and afternoon "drive times" because these are exactly the times when you got the biggest audience and a captive one at that. I mean, when was the last time that you saw any home audio component manufacturer touting the features on their AM/FM tuner first?

When I'm at home, I generally like to pick the music myself. If I want someone else to pick the music for me, I'll tune into the XM feed thru Directv or tune to an internet station. Since corporate consolidation of radio stations started running rampant, I've pretty much tuned out of FM radio for the most part and I'm not alone -- the overall radio audience has declined continuously since the 1996 telecommunications act. Multicasting new and interesting music feeds might entice me to listen to more FM in the car, but at home my radio listening days are pretty much over. Too many more attractive options, plus I can always pick up a radio station's internet feed if I want more "local" content (that is, if the DJ's not some automaton beamed in from back east).


As for car audio, I disagree as well. That's where HD radio has been trying to compete and frankly, that's not been going well for them, has it? HD radio is a high-definition format, which by its name implies better sound. If people can't hear that, then why should they bother? In a car, they're not going to hear that. For me, and several other people I know who listen to classical music, the prospect of listening to distant radio stations with greater fidelity and less static is the very reason why HD radio remains on our radars.

As I pointed out to hifitommy, much of the sound quality benefit of HD Radio will likely get negated, since most radio stations use digital media servers (and presumably compressed audio files) and compress the dynamic range before it gets to the transmitter. If the HD Radio feed uses this same degraded source, you won't hear much of a sound quality improvement. Where I see the selling points for HD Radio are 1) multicasting - hearing multiple specialized feeds from a favorite radio station is an easy-to-demonstrate benefit and draws favorable comparisons with satellite radio; 2) better range with less static - THIS is where you'd hear the sound quality improvement in a car audio system.

The focus on car audio has everything to do with the fact that this is radio's biggest audience. Getting into the OEM car audio market from what I can see is HD Radio's make-or-break marketing push. If they don't get into the OEM car audio market, HD Radio will be a small niche product at best. And right now, HD Radio is competing with XM, Sirius, and the iPod, which have all made inroads into the OEM market.


I really believe that in addition to a pathetic marketing campaign, HD radio has been pushing in entirely the wrong markets. I, for one, am going to take a serious look at that Sangean player that Tommy suggested. At $150 it's still a bit pricey, but who knows, maybe I can find a used one for a much better price. I'm sorry that radio is not that important to you, but I know lots of people for who it is.

And these "lots of people" that you know still don't make up the majority of the market. In case you haven't noticed, the home audio component market is the most stagnant segment of the consumer electronics industry right now. If HD Radio wants to gain traction, they're much better off focusing their attention on the markets where there's growth and where there's an audience -- and that's in the mobile markets.

As I keep pointing out, the HD Radio marketing has been phenomenally successful with broadcasters, but it will only work with manufacturers if they see HD Radio as a money-making proposition (i.e., something that people want and will pay extra to get). Keep in mind that HD Radio can't even make a push into the portable devices market until it introduces low powered chipsets (presumably later this year), and as I've posted before, right now the sales of Apple's iPods alone total more than double the entire home audio component market.

What do you think would make more of a market impact? HD Radio getting onto all new home audio receivers? Or if HD Radio tuners made their way into all new OEM car audio systems? Or perhaps if HD Radio started making its way into MP3 players?

If the goal is to get as many HD Radio tuners into consumers' hands as possible, focusing on home audio is hardly the way to go since at home there are so many other options, and most people are loathe to spend more just to get an enhanced radio tuner. In the car, the entertainment options are more limited, and HD Radio has a better chance of getting noticed.


Come to think of it, what about the millions of small shop owners who don't want to pay for XM/Sirius or cable service? They're typically looking to minimize cost, right?

Two words: commercial-free (which is why many businesses will pay services like Muzak to provide the background music; plus there are ASCAP and BMI licensing issues associated with playing music in a public place of business)


And using a clock radio to play music throughout their stores really isn't an option. They would be much better served with a component-type tuner. Granted this isn't a hi-fi application, but a store is also not an environment where static and bad reception would be acceptable. Besides, they will usually already have some kind of amp and CD player set up, so adding a tuner is a no-brainer. What about assembly shops, manufacturing assembly lines, restaurant kitchens? Currently they are all listing to staticky FM.

Nope, they're listening to iPods.


The point is that there are lots of applications that the HD radio consortium is completely ignoring, to their detriment.

And I think that if they focus on the markets that you say they should, then that works to their detriment, because the mobile markets are where HD Radio has the strongest pitch. Convincing people to buy a separate HD Radio radio tuner is a hard sell when XM and Sirius have lower hardware costs (because they basically subsidize these costs), a XM/Sirius subscription brings a whole new programming palette to the consumer, and most people already have a AM/FM tuner on their system (i.e., how many people are going to pay extra for an enhanced version of what they already get for free?). Getting a HD Radio tuner with a new car purchase is a much easier step to getting consumers on board with HD Radio than convincing them to consciously go to a store and buy a new tuner or radio for their setup. People who get HD Radio with their new car are more apt to discovering the format's benefits and then seeking out other HD Radio devices for their home or office.

Mr Peabody
08-06-2007, 05:22 PM
Wooch, look at it another way. Satelite radio in a car you can drive from coast to coast and never drop your favorite station, how can HD compare? Your home stereo is stationary, so it makes sense to put HD in the home receiver. Why should it be either or anyway, if the home receiver has a stupid radio in it at all it should be HD which would allow the home listener the option of the extra stations. Keep in mind satelite costs. If I was putting something on the market I'd want to go for every possible user, not just limit it to car audio. Most cable and satelite providers give free music stations plus you have video networks, maybe that's what they are thinking, but there again, why put a tuner in at all. What a selling point, the HT integrated amp. Besides that manufacturers dream of new bells & whistles to add to their receiver's resume. So why not add it? Something is amiss here.

I haven't had a home tuner in years. I listen to radio occasionally when I work out and can't make up my mind what mood I'm in for music. To have a free no commercial option like HD would have been nice. I have a cheap radio in my cubicle and try to listen but it don't take long to get sick of the corporate Marry-go-round of selected force fed music. Trust me FM needs all the help it can get, and that's with anyone who listens, anywhere.

It just doesn't make sense to defend HD radios aimless marketing. So what if they want it in cars, does that mean they can't have it anywhere else, does that tax their MBA pea brains to focus on their entire market..

nightflier
08-07-2007, 12:14 PM
"But, again you're in the minority. It's well documented that radio stations focus their programming towards the morning and afternoon "drive times" because these are exactly the times when you got the biggest audience and a captive one at that. I mean, when was the last time that you saw any home audio component manufacturer touting the features on their AM/FM tuner first?"

NAD has been doing just that, and they don't even have the best tuners. But I digress. If you were to poll classical and jazz music listeners, you would get very different numbers. Yes, we're still a minority in the grander scheme of it, but a larger percentage of us listen to radio and we like to have it at higher quality.

"Since corporate consolidation of radio stations started running rampant, I've pretty much tuned out of FM radio for the most part and I'm not alone -- the overall radio audience has declined continuously since the 1996 telecommunications act. Multicasting new and interesting music feeds might entice me to listen to more FM in the car, but at home my radio listening days are pretty much over."

Actually multicasts is one of the most attractive features and some of them are commercial free while the main feed isn't. And for those of us who listen to jazz and classical, which have been relegated to just a few stations, multicasts offer more options.

"As I pointed out to hifitommy, much of the sound quality benefit of HD Radio will likely get negated, since most radio stations use digital media servers (and presumably compressed audio files) and compress the dynamic range before it gets to the transmitter. If the HD Radio feed uses this same degraded source, you won't hear much of a sound quality improvement. Where I see the selling points for HD Radio are 1) multicasting - hearing multiple specialized feeds from a favorite radio station is an easy-to-demonstrate benefit and draws favorable comparisons with satellite radio; 2) better range with less static - THIS is where you'd hear the sound quality improvement in a car audio system."

You're making my case. Even if the sound quality is not very much better, the digital stream is far less staticky, so the benefits (and for those pulling in distant stations, these are important benefits) are well worth it.

"The focus on car audio has everything to do with the fact that this is radio's biggest audience. Getting into the OEM car audio market from what I can see is HD Radio's make-or-break marketing push. If they don't get into the OEM car audio market, HD Radio will be a small niche product at best. And right now, HD Radio is competing with XM, Sirius, and the iPod, which have all made inroads into the OEM market."

Again, you're making my case. XM/Sirius have such an advantage in cars, that the point is moot. The only hope that HD has there is if it is offered as a free add-on to the others and that won't happen. Anyhow, HD has been trying to push into this market segment (car audio) and it has gotten them no-where. They need to look elsewhere.

"And these "lots of people" that you know still don't make up the majority of the market."

But they do make up a niche market, and more importantly, they are the ones more likely to pay a bit more for the gear. By the way, isn't that what everyone in this forum is, really? Audiophiles are not the majority of any market, but we also pay a lot more for our gear.

"In case you haven't noticed, the home audio component market is the most stagnant segment of the consumer electronics industry right now. If HD Radio wants to gain traction, they're much better off focusing their attention on the markets where there's growth and where there's an audience -- and that's in the mobile markets."

Actually the car audio market isn't growing by leaps and bounds either. As a matter of fact, the car market is going to experience a severe downturn because of other factors like oil and politics. Long term growth, however distasteful that may be to the SUV-Hummer-driving crowd, is in public transportation. Ask any economist.

"As I keep pointing out, the HD Radio marketing has been phenomenally successful with broadcasters,"

Again, completely disagree. Without HD gear, no one is hearing HD radio. The only appearance of success is in the number of ads for it. That's not monetary success, that is actually a net loss.

"...but it will only work with manufacturers if they see HD Radio as a money-making proposition (i.e., something that people want and will pay extra to get)."

That's fantasy. The vast majority of mass-used products got to their market domination through much more than just fighting it out in the marketplace. It's a fantasy that most of us Americans want to believe in over & over. Fact is, every product that is, for lack of a better term, ubiquitous; got there by government subsidies, lobbying, favorable laws/policies/regulations, and what really amounts to simple government collusion. Whether we're talking about Microsoft, Walmart, Ford, Bechtel or Chiquita, the influence of government assistance is far more of a factor in their success than market forces. I mean, does anyone really believe that gasoline is under $3 a gallon because of market forces? Or that diamond prices fluctuate with the market everyday? If so, they should go read a few history books. But this is precisely why HD radio is falling flat on its face, it does not have any government subsidies or favorable laws to help it along. Or if they do, then there's no apparent evidence of it in the buying public's pocketbook - maybe it's being squandered?

"Keep in mind that HD Radio can't even make a push into the portable devices market until it introduces low powered chipsets (presumably later this year), and as I've posted before, right now the sales of Apple's iPods alone total more than double the entire home audio component market."

You need to update your figures. Apple iPod sales are retracting because of all the attention on their own iPhone. But I digress again. I'm going to guess that these chips will take a very long time to trickle down to iPod add-ons in the same way that FM add-ons have. That is, if they ever do. HD is coming too late to the party, and while the iPod market was all the rage two years ago, I'm going to guess it has peaked already. The new market is WiFi phones, and HD won't make a dent there because people will instead tune into Internet radio.

"What do you think would make more of a market impact? HD Radio getting onto all new home audio receivers? Or if HD Radio tuners made their way into all new OEM car audio systems? Or perhaps if HD Radio started making its way into MP3 players?"

Well you know my answer by now. HD radio's biggest potential is as a niche product in home receivers, because the other market segments are retreating and saturated with competitors.

"If the goal is to get as many HD Radio tuners into consumers' hands as possible, focusing on home audio is hardly the way to go since at home there are so many other options, and most people are loathe to spend more just to get an enhanced radio tuner."

Disagree as well. Complete-home audio systems is where HD radio still has room to stake a claim. And the only way they can do that is with component-sized devices.

"In the car, the entertainment options are more limited, and HD Radio has a better chance of getting noticed."

That may very well be the case, but the car market is saturated and in trouble.

"Two words: commercial-free (which is why many businesses will pay services like Muzak to provide the background music; plus there are ASCAP and BMI licensing issues associated with playing music in a public place of business)"

Many multicasts are commercial free. And while the ASCAP/BMI gestapo (they probably compare notes with the RIAA) may disagree, almost all small businesses are more concerned with their bottom lines. If they can play static-free music for free, that's what they'll do. Come to think of it, many of them would probably select classical or jazz over pop and talk radio, as it would be less "controversial."

P.S. I don't understand your response for assembly-line, factory-based businesses - I can't see how handing out iPods to every worker is going to be feasible or economical.

"And I think that if they focus on the markets that you say they should, then that works to their detriment, because the mobile markets are where HD Radio has the strongest pitch."

Well they've been trying in vain to get a slice of the auto-audio pie and so far, what has it gotten them? Nada.

"Convincing people to buy a separate HD Radio radio tuner is a hard sell when XM and Sirius have lower hardware costs (because they basically subsidize these costs), a XM/Sirius subscription brings a whole new programming palette to the consumer, and most people already have a AM/FM tuner on their system (i.e., how many people are going to pay extra for an enhanced version of what they already get for free?)."

As I explained above: as a niche product in the home. This is one of the few market segments where HD radio will find customers who will pay extra for the receiver so that they can then listen for free forever.

"Getting a HD Radio tuner with a new car purchase is a much easier step to getting consumers on board with HD Radio than convincing them to consciously go to a store and buy a new tuner or radio for their setup. People who get HD Radio with their new car are more apt to discovering the format's benefits and then seeking out other HD Radio devices for their home or office."

As I explained, this hasn't worked for them and won't provide future growth. Maybe the HD folks should focus on the home market a little more, and then it might just make its way to cars? Wow, what a concept...

Woochifer
08-07-2007, 12:32 PM
Wooch, look at it another way. Satelite radio in a car you can drive from coast to coast and never drop your favorite station, how can HD compare?

But, how often do most drivers go coast to coast, or even drive outside of their local broadcast area? I would venture to guess not very often, since the average American commute time is about half an hour. The advantage of satellite radio is primarily its huge palette of programming, much of which is commercial free and much of which increasingly consists of exclusive programming (i.e., Howard Stern, and out-of-town sports broadcasts). Its ability to stay with you on long distance drives is only an occasional benefit. HD Radio's multicasting feature allows for radio programmers to stream more specialized programming, which is one of satellite radio's attractions.


Your home stereo is stationary, so it makes sense to put HD in the home receiver. Why should it be either or anyway, if the home receiver has a stupid radio in it at all it should be HD which would allow the home listener the option of the extra stations. Keep in mind satelite costs. If I was putting something on the market I'd want to go for every possible user, not just limit it to car audio.

If home listening is so important, then why does the radio audience peak during the commute hours? And who says that HD Radio is limited to car audio? If you want HD Radio for the home, the tuners and standalone radios are available and have been.

Of course it makes sense to put a HD Radio tuner into a home receiver, but is the potential audience bigger with home receivers or with car audio systems? It's not a matter of choosing one over the other, it a matter of focusing where the growth and audience have gone.


Most cable and satelite providers give free music stations plus you have video networks, maybe that's what they are thinking, but there again, why put a tuner in at all. What a selling point, the HT integrated amp. Besides that manufacturers dream of new bells & whistles to add to their receiver's resume. So why not add it? Something is amiss here.

Well, there's the issue of licensing and hardware costs (which subscription-based services like XM and Sirius can subsidize), and consumer demand. The AM/FM tuner is one of those legacy features that has become progressively less relevant. Much like the phono input, it's one of those features that are basically thrown in simply because competing products include it, and deleting the feature would give some consumers a reason to gravitate to those competitors.

Receiver manufacturers began including satellite radio tuners and iPod docks only within the last couple of years. The widespread adoption of those features indicates that many consumers will choose a product based on the inclusion of those features. At the moment, it's not a competitive disadvantage to not include a HD Radio tuner. Maybe in a couple of years, it will be.


I haven't had a home tuner in years. I listen to radio occasionally when I work out and can't make up my mind what mood I'm in for music. To have a free no commercial option like HD would have been nice.

Trust me, if HD Radio takes off, those multicast feeds won't remain commercial free for long. They're still tethered to corporate-owned commercial radio stations with bills to pay and lots of debt. They see HD Radio as a means by which to multiply the number of broadcasts that they can put out in a given market.


It just doesn't make sense to defend HD radios aimless marketing. So what if they want it in cars, does that mean they can't have it anywhere else, does that tax their MBA pea brains to focus on their entire market..

The way I see it, most consumers right now simply don't care to pay extra for an enhanced version of what they get for free right now. This is why I think the OEM car audio market is so crucial. Put it into new cars, get consumers hooked on HD Radio, and some of them will seek out the products that allow them to listen to HD Radio in other places. No matter how much advertising the radio stations provide for HD Radio, there's no better marketing than getting the tuners into consumers' hands, and what better distribution channel than putting HD Radio into new cars? Most of the products available for XM and Sirius still serve the mobile and portable markets. XM tuners didn't even make their way into home receivers until hundreds of thousands of car audio and portable units had already been sold.

The broadcasters have been promoting HD Radio over the air and on their websites. The issue has been getting manufacturers on board, and without a subscription-based business model to subsidize the hardware, HD Radio will pretty much have to sink or swim on its own merits. As it is, there are plenty of car audio products on the market, and a handful of home audio products. The portable market will have to wait for those low powered chipsets to become available.

Mr Peabody
08-07-2007, 04:38 PM
Getting the HD radio into OEM is a good idea, then it takes the place of the old analog tuner, as it should in home stereo. I think your licensing theory could be right because it shouldn't cost that much more to put an HD tuner in a unit opposed to an analog one. I'm not sure what you mean by us paying to get a HD tuner in a home receiver unless you are referring to the overall cost of a receiver. I'm just saying anywhere a new unit comes out, home or car, if it includes a tuner at all, it should be HD. By not having a HD tuner we cannot pick up the extra stations or take advantage of the more clear sound.

It's our right to have it, man. If our founding daddios was here, they'd say, "let em have it,man, what's the deal" As the corn fields bloom, the orange sun sets, the eagle flies, as the river flows and shtuff hits the fan, man, we gotto have it. Can you dig it?

You're a real downer too, but I'm sure you are right. As radio pulled off the deal to stream live via the net, along came the commercials

PeruvianSkies
08-07-2007, 05:05 PM
I dunno about HD-radio...no matter how good it gets....the picture still doesn't look that good.

Mr Peabody
08-07-2007, 05:57 PM
I dunno about HD-radio...no matter how good it gets....the picture still doesn't look that good.

Then try the purple tabs

Woochifer
08-08-2007, 09:45 PM
NAD has been doing just that, and they don't even have the best tuners. But I digress. If you were to poll classical and jazz music listeners, you would get very different numbers. Yes, we're still a minority in the grander scheme of it, but a larger percentage of us listen to radio and we like to have it at higher quality.

So if you like your higher quality, feel free to go out and purchase one of the HD Radio tuners already on the market. But, if you're waiting for a deluge of new HD Radio products to appear at lower cost, then you'll need to wait for the mass market to tune in, and that consists of a lot more than jazz and classical listeners.


Actually multicasts is one of the most attractive features and some of them are commercial free while the main feed isn't. And for those of us who listen to jazz and classical, which have been relegated to just a few stations, multicasts offer more options.

I agree, but that basically serves to merely pull FM radio on par with XM/Sirius, which already has a huge range of genres available on its feed.


You're making my case. Even if the sound quality is not very much better, the digital stream is far less staticky, so the benefits (and for those pulling in distant stations, these are important benefits) are well worth it.

Actually, I was also making the point that this benefits car audio, which you claimed did not benefit from higher sound quality.


Again, you're making my case. XM/Sirius have such an advantage in cars, that the point is moot. The only hope that HD has there is if it is offered as a free add-on to the others and that won't happen. Anyhow, HD has been trying to push into this market segment (car audio) and it has gotten them no-where. They need to look elsewhere.

Actually, your case is that HD Radio should do shotgun marketing and go after every audience. I'm basically saying that HD Radio needs to focus its efforts on the avenues that will help the format gain traction, and that ain't in the home component market.

Your assertion that HD Radio needs to stop trying to push into the car audio market is ridiculous. Remember that XM and Sirius started up in the late-80s and early-90s and it took them more than a decade to finally get a product on the market. And it subsequently took them though the middle of this decade before they made inroads into the OEM car audio market. How does XM and Sirius' success at getting into the car audio market preclude HD Radio from doing the same? HD Radio products have been on the market for less than two years, yet you're already declaring the car audio market a dead end?


But they do make up a niche market, and more importantly, they are the ones more likely to pay a bit more for the gear. By the way, isn't that what everyone in this forum is, really? Audiophiles are not the majority of any market, but we also pay a lot more for our gear.

So, like I said, if you want HD Radio, the standalone component tuners are already on the market.


Actually the car audio market isn't growing by leaps and bounds either. As a matter of fact, the car market is going to experience a severe downturn because of other factors like oil and politics. Long term growth, however distasteful that may be to the SUV-Hummer-driving crowd, is in public transportation. Ask any economist.

Actually, the car audio market IS growing, while the home audio market is DECLINING (in real dollar terms, home audio has declined by more than 60% since 1992). No matter if the new car market hits a downturn, we're still talking about millions of unit sales even in recessionary market conditions.

The biggest segment is the portables market, which BTW ties in with public transit. Once the new chipsets come out, the HD Radio can actually compete in that space.

And if you want to talk transportation economics, I'll be glad to talk that over with you some other time (for one thing, ground transportation is one of the very few markets that does not follow normal supply/demand curves -- e.g., increased roadway supply does not decrease the demand curve for travel, and decreasing supply for public transit lowers demand)


Again, completely disagree. Without HD gear, no one is hearing HD radio. The only appearance of success is in the number of ads for it. That's not monetary success, that is actually a net loss.

No, HD Radio has been a huge success at the broadcast level, and by success I'm talking about getting radio stations to buy into the format. There are already more than 1,400 stations that have gone with HD Radio. Considering the paltry number of tuners in consumers' hands, I would say this is a resounding success.


That's fantasy. The vast majority of mass-used products got to their market domination through much more than just fighting it out in the marketplace. It's a fantasy that most of us Americans want to believe in over & over. Fact is, every product that is, for lack of a better term, ubiquitous; got there by government subsidies, lobbying, favorable laws/policies/regulations, and what really amounts to simple government collusion. Whether we're talking about Microsoft, Walmart, Ford, Bechtel or Chiquita, the influence of government assistance is far more of a factor in their success than market forces. I mean, does anyone really believe that gasoline is under $3 a gallon because of market forces? Or that diamond prices fluctuate with the market everyday? If so, they should go read a few history books. But this is precisely why HD radio is falling flat on its face, it does not have any government subsidies or favorable laws to help it along. Or if they do, then there's no apparent evidence of it in the buying public's pocketbook - maybe it's being squandered?

Tangental ramblings aside, why would a manufacturer add HD Radio as a feature if it costs them money to add the feature, and the importance of radio as a decision-making factor is declining? No need to delve into conspiracy theories when a simple cost/benefit assessment will suffice.

If consumers wanted HD Radio, and it was enough to sway their purchasing decision towards one manufacturer versus another, ALL of them would add the HD Radio tuners in no time. Doesn't take government collusion or bribes to make that happen. In the receiver market, we saw this with DTS, DD EX, 7.1 output, component video switching, multizone outputs, parametric room calibration, and now we're seeing it with HDMI. Basically, if it's a feature that enough consumers want, then manufacturers would rather add the feature than risk losing sales by not including it. If HD Radio reaches that point, you better believe manufacturers will add the feature -- collusion or not.


You need to update your figures. Apple iPod sales are retracting because of all the attention on their own iPhone.

Is this fact or wishful thinking? The quarter-to-quarter unit sales continue to show double-digit gains in iPod sales. But, I digress...


I'm going to guess that these chips will take a very long time to trickle down to iPod add-ons in the same way that FM add-ons have. That is, if they ever do. HD is coming too late to the party, and while the iPod market was all the rage two years ago, I'm going to guess it has peaked already. The new market is WiFi phones, and HD won't make a dent there because people will instead tune into Internet radio.

Uh, the iPod market right now is more than 60% above what it was two years ago, so I don't see how it was "all the rage two years ago." If hooking on with the iPod is "coming too late to the party" then what does that say about your idea for HD Radio to focus on the home audio market, which is more than 2x smaller than the portables market? The home audio market peaked in 1992 -- at least the portable devices market would be peaking this year if your assumption is correct. WiFi phones making a market impact? I'll believe it when I see it.


Well you know my answer by now. HD radio's biggest potential is as a niche product in home receivers, because the other market segments are retreating and saturated with competitors.

How can HD Radio have its "biggest potential" by tethering its future to the only audio market that is actually declining? :idea: Your contention that "other market segments are retreating" is a misnomer, because they are not. You seem to overlook the fact that home audio is the only market in actual retreat -- in terms of both unit sales and real dollar revenues. As for "saturation with competitors" it's a non-issue because HD Radio can easily coexist on a device alongside XM, Sirius, GPS, AM/FM, CD, MP3, and/or an iPod dock. It's no different than DD and DTS decoders now residing on the same processing chips in all new HT receivers.


Disagree as well. Complete-home audio systems is where HD radio still has room to stake a claim. And the only way they can do that is with component-sized devices.

And the component devices are already on the market. Next ...


That may very well be the case, but the car market is saturated and in trouble.

Then why have mobile audio sales surpassed home audio? If any market is in trouble, it's certainly not the mobile market.


Many multicasts are commercial free. And while the ASCAP/BMI gestapo (they probably compare notes with the RIAA) may disagree, almost all small businesses are more concerned with their bottom lines. If they can play static-free music for free, that's what they'll do. Come to think of it, many of them would probably select classical or jazz over pop and talk radio, as it would be less "controversial."

And as I pointed out to Mr Peabody, how long do you think these multicasts will remain commercial free? If HD Radio gains any kind of market traction, the ClearChannels and Cumuluses of the world will saturate those multicasts with commercials galore.


P.S. I don't understand your response for assembly-line, factory-based businesses - I can't see how handing out iPods to every worker is going to be feasible or economical.

No need to hand iPods out if employees already bring them to work. Most people I know who work on assembly lines or backoffices now play their music through MP3 players (and before that they brought portable CD players, and before that they brought portable tape players).


Well they've been trying in vain to get a slice of the auto-audio pie and so far, what has it gotten them? Nada.

I wouldn't call Hyundai, Jaguar, and BMW nada. Those car makers are already on board with HD Radio.


As I explained, this hasn't worked for them and won't provide future growth. Maybe the HD folks should focus on the home market a little more, and then it might just make its way to cars? Wow, what a concept...

So, I guess then that XM and Sirius should have given up too when they couldn't make any early inroads with the car makers either? I think penetrating the car audio market is the best chance that HD Radio has of reaching a large enough audience to keep the format afloat. If HD Radio cannot make inroads with the car audio market, then I think the format is destined to become an historical footnote like Dolby FM or AM stereo.

Mr Peabody
08-09-2007, 05:41 PM
Wooch, a couple bones to pick, or at least some clarification.

1. How can the home market have fallen consistently from 1992 when that is around the time home theater was starting to catch fire? More people have receivers and speakers than ever before. My wife's sister has a big screen and HT receiver who has no concept of what HT is. The speakers are all sitting around in a pointless fashion and the bass is booming. That example just popped in my head as I was talking about this. I don't have access to sales figures but it also seems that around the first of this decade, give or take a couple years, that higher end audio made a spike in sales. It may be small but turntables made a come back as well as the market being flooded with tube gear. If this stuff wasn't selling, then why is it here.

2. I totally disagree that manufacturers put features on receivers due to consumer demand. HDMI is my best example, who the hell wants it, no consumer. I'd bet also that more consumers paid for multi-zone in a receiver that aren't going to use than those who do, because you have to go up that far to get the features you do want. Look at the new Denon CI receivers, they are more expensive than past models. What you are paying for in most of them is the hidden installer features including the ability for the receiver to have an internet connection and an installer to adjust from the comfort of his office. What small a fraction of the people will ever benefit from that. I have never been polled on what features I like. I believe it's more like a car dealer picking cars for his lot, you put the features you think might sell. In HDMI's case, they probably bought their way onto the receivers or it was forced on by the movie industry. In most cases, how can there be consumer demand for something we aren't even aware of? Most features on receivers are new to us and some fly, and some disappear.

Well, one other thing. How can HD radio be a success because 1,400 stations are broadcasting yet no one's listening? When a store has a warehouse of shtuff that they can't sell, I think that's the opposite of success. So when a station invests money to broadcast in HD and gains no benefit, what do you call that?

nightflier
08-10-2007, 03:21 PM
Wooch, I debated on whether I should do another point-for-point post, but I'll just leave it at these two major points:

A. Your main point is that HD radio has to gain traction in the car audio market. But the facts are that (1) it hasn't been able to despite having 14000 stations and plenty of products to chose from, (2) the car industry is not growing and could actually severely recede in the next few years, (3) portable devices that plug into a car audio system can fill that void, (4) cars will continue to further integrate with home networks both by cellular link and WiFi.

B. It then follows that the portable devices market is about to change dramatically in the following ways (1) WiFi will soon become the most requested and included feature in cell phones, (2) all cell phones will play music, (3) Apple is shifting much of its iPod marketing focus to the iPhone and even considers the latter to be a replacement for the iPod, (4) flash/hard-drive based devices will give way to devices with a direct wireless link to much larger online-stored repositories, both public and privately owned, (5) portable devices will become a remote extension of home-based audio systems where many people's "collections" will reside - as such they will fill that role in cars as well.

If this all seems too far fetched, consider the long feature list of the upcoming gPhone from Google, not the least of which is unlimited, advertising-funded, free service - it may well replace the iPhone as the most popular phone on the market. People don't realize that Google has redefined and redesigned advertising in ways we are just now starting to understand. Don't be surprised if one day we'll be adding a Google-branded component to our HT racks, but I digress.

My main point is that I see many industry indicators pointing to the home becoming the networking hub of a family, with their cars and cellphones being remote extensions of that network. I also see such devices with limited functionalities such as iPods loosing marketshare very fast in the next few years. Likewise, subscription-based services such as XM & cable TV will consequently also loose marketshare to public, free, and advertising-funded sources of entertainment because these will be available over the internet. Unfortunately for HD, this is also a threat to them.

I don't mean to sound like I have crystal ball, but all the indicators seem to be pointing to some big changes in technology very soon. The society we know from these last few years, and I say this with the full intent of being political, is simply not sustainable. Drastic changes in our way of life are right around the corner, and this will start with a complete rethinking of our car-culture and how far from our homes (soon to be our network hubs) we will be comfortable traveling. How HD is able to integrate into that new lifestyle will determine if it survives.

Mr Peabody
08-10-2007, 07:14 PM
Nightflier, you are going to cause me technical nightmares. I hope it don't go down like that. You never know though with this next generation who cut their teeth on computers.

nightflier
08-12-2007, 07:13 PM
Well I didn't say it was a good thing - it's just what the trends appear to suggest.

Woochifer
08-14-2007, 04:26 PM
Wooch, a couple bones to pick, or at least some clarification.

1. How can the home market have fallen consistently from 1992 when that is around the time home theater was starting to catch fire? More people have receivers and speakers than ever before. My wife's sister has a big screen and HT receiver who has no concept of what HT is. The speakers are all sitting around in a pointless fashion and the bass is booming. That example just popped in my head as I was talking about this. I don't have access to sales figures but it also seems that around the first of this decade, give or take a couple years, that higher end audio made a spike in sales. It may be small but turntables made a come back as well as the market being flooded with tube gear. If this stuff wasn't selling, then why is it here.

I tracked these stats a couple of years ago, and inflation-adjusted the figures. In inflation-adjusted terms, the price points have dropped through the floor on home audio components. Just for reference, my parents' Marantz 2275 cost $600 in 1976, which is equal to about $2,000 in today's dollars. Back then, $600 was considered a mid-level receiver, and it still is. But, what that $600 buys (not necessarily in terms of sound quality, but rather functionality and features) today is substantially greater.

Multichannel did spur some sales in the late-90s, but not nearly enough to offset the much larger shift to the mobile markets, and not enough to offset the march to commodification on a lot of other components (CD changers averaged $300-$400 in the mid-90s, and they now can be found for less than $100). People from year to year will spend about the same % of discretionary income on entertainment, but the big shifts occur in how that entertainment spending gets allocated. e.g., spending that used to go towards CDs now go towards DVDs and video games; spending that used to go towards home audio components now gets spent on mobile audio products; spending that used to go towards audio products now goes into video, etc.

In high end audio, I think what's happened is growth in what AudioPerfectionist Richard Hardesty calls the "silly segment" of the market. The price points at the high end have gone stratospheric, while much of the middle market has been vacated (it's almost easier nowadays to find a $2,000 CD player than a $500 model) and components that would have been considered middle market a decade ago have gone down into the entry level price points.


2. I totally disagree that manufacturers put features on receivers due to consumer demand. HDMI is my best example, who the hell wants it, no consumer. I'd bet also that more consumers paid for multi-zone in a receiver that aren't going to use than those who do, because you have to go up that far to get the features you do want. Look at the new Denon CI receivers, they are more expensive than past models. What you are paying for in most of them is the hidden installer features including the ability for the receiver to have an internet connection and an installer to adjust from the comfort of his office. What small a fraction of the people will ever benefit from that. I have never been polled on what features I like. I believe it's more like a car dealer picking cars for his lot, you put the features you think might sell. In HDMI's case, they probably bought their way onto the receivers or it was forced on by the movie industry. In most cases, how can there be consumer demand for something we aren't even aware of? Most features on receivers are new to us and some fly, and some disappear.

Consumer demand is more than just consumers consciously telling manufacturers that they want a feature. The case of HDMI is a perfect example. This is not a consumer driven feature (then again, neither was DD or DTS), but it has evolved into an industry standard. And it has reached a point that receiver manufacturers have to include the feature, or else risk losing market share. It doesn't matter if the majority of consumers won't make use of it, if consumers are choosing between two otherwise identical receivers -- one with HDMI and the other without HDMI -- guess which one they will choose? It's consumer driven only in the sense that it can tip the balance in favor of one company over another if they are offering otherwise similar products (which HT receivers are).

The exact same thing happened with DTS (less than 20% of DVDs come with DTS soundtracks, yet it's on 100% of the new receivers), 7.1 output (less than 1% of DVDs natively support EX or ES encoding, yet you can't even find basic 5.1 receivers anymore except for the lowest entry level models), multizone outputs (again, a small minority of receiver owners use this feature), auto calibration, etc. Except for auto calibration, each of these features make up only a minority of the market. But, receiver makers know that if their models do not keep up with their competitors, then they risk losing sales.

And most recently, receiver makers have begun adding XM/Sirius tuners and iPod dock inputs. As usual, it starts with one manufacturer, and within a year or two, the majority of receiver manufacturers start offering the feature.

Call it keeping up with the Joneses or a lemming-like approach, but that's market reality.


Well, one other thing. How can HD radio be a success because 1,400 stations are broadcasting yet no one's listening? When a store has a warehouse of shtuff that they can't sell, I think that's the opposite of success. So when a station invests money to broadcast in HD and gains no benefit, what do you call that?

Of course it can be considered a success at the broadcasting end precisely because the radio stations are adding HD Radio broadcasts, despite the absence of tuner sales.

I would call it a value-added investment. As I mentioned in my first post, the motive for the broadcasters is with maintaining/enhancing the value of their radio stations. With terrestrial radio losing audience and market share, how can broadcasters keep the value of their radio stations from going down? This is basically a technological upgrade.

It's no different than when some TV stations began broadcasting in high def before HDTVs had even gone on the market, or when the first TV stations initiated stereo broadcasts with only a handful of expensive external stereo decoders on the market. It's also no different than those handful of stations that enbraced technologies that would never find a wide audience such as Dolby FM and AM stereo. Only time will tell, but the notion of a station upgrading its broadcast technology before a large audience of consumers buy into those formats is nothing new.

Woochifer
08-14-2007, 05:21 PM
A. Your main point is that HD radio has to gain traction in the car audio market. But the facts are that (1) it hasn't been able to despite having 14000 stations and plenty of products to chose from, (2) the car industry is not growing and could actually severely recede in the next few years, (3) portable devices that plug into a car audio system can fill that void, (4) cars will continue to further integrate with home networks both by cellular link and WiFi.

And you're basing your assertion on a product less than two years old. It also took XM and Sirius two years on the air before their products began appearing on new car systems, and only within the last couple of years has the option become commonplace. Where HD Radio sits right now is not nearly as crucial as where it is two or three from now.

Also, even with a car industry in decline, we're still talking about millions of new auto sales (17 million new cars last year in the U.S.) and a potential audience that far outstrips what the CE companies sell in audio products. Even with other networked devices included with new cars, do you actually think that their numbers will outnumber terrestrial radio tuners?


B. It then follows that the portable devices market is about to change dramatically in the following ways (1) WiFi will soon become the most requested and included feature in cell phones, (2) all cell phones will play music, (3) Apple is shifting much of its iPod marketing focus to the iPhone and even considers the latter to be a replacement for the iPod, (4) flash/hard-drive based devices will give way to devices with a direct wireless link to much larger online-stored repositories, both public and privately owned, (5) portable devices will become a remote extension of home-based audio systems where many people's "collections" will reside - as such they will fill that role in cars as well.

If this all seems too far fetched, consider the long feature list of the upcoming gPhone from Google, not the least of which is unlimited, advertising-funded, free service - it may well replace the iPhone as the most popular phone on the market. People don't realize that Google has redefined and redesigned advertising in ways we are just now starting to understand. Don't be surprised if one day we'll be adding a Google-branded component to our HT racks, but I digress.

My main point is that I see many industry indicators pointing to the home becoming the networking hub of a family, with their cars and cellphones being remote extensions of that network. I also see such devices with limited functionalities such as iPods loosing marketshare very fast in the next few years. Likewise, subscription-based services such as XM & cable TV will consequently also loose marketshare to public, free, and advertising-funded sources of entertainment because these will be available over the internet. Unfortunately for HD, this is also a threat to them.

And how do any of these trends lock HD Radio out of the mix? HD Radio isn't even in the portables market yet because its current chipsets consume far too much energy. See what happens when the compatible chipsets become available. It might open up the market, it might not, but for now HD Radio can't even play in that market.


I don't mean to sound like I have crystal ball, but all the indicators seem to be pointing to some big changes in technology very soon. The society we know from these last few years, and I say this with the full intent of being political, is simply not sustainable. Drastic changes in our way of life are right around the corner, and this will start with a complete rethinking of our car-culture and how far from our homes (soon to be our network hubs) we will be comfortable traveling. How HD is able to integrate into that new lifestyle will determine if it survives.

Personally, I think this kind of drastic reconfiguration is a pipedream. I've done research into transit-oriented development and work on projects that involve so-called "smart growth," Ultimately, a lot of this stuff is less about environmentalism and responsible stewardship than about simply promoting and packaging a lifestyle to stimulate real estate development (new urbanism guru Andres Duane even stated as such at a conference I attended several years ago). I doubt that our car culture will ever come to an end, for one thing, good luck trying to retrofit higher densities (which are needed if you want people to eliminate car trips or make mass transit viable) into existing single-family neighborhoods, and good luck trying to fund the transit upgrades needed to get people out of their cars. If you've ever had to sit in on a planning commission hearing in even the most progressive communities, you'd see that opposition to densification is every bit as prevalent in Santa Monica or Berkeley as it is in Irvine or Riverside. Magnify that into thousands of communities across the country, and it's not exactly a situation that encourages massive lifestyle changes.

And what if alternative/renewable fuels gain traction? That would simply mean people driving even more (in the economics of transportation, supply creates demand), and development going into even more far flung outposts than currently exist. Technologically speaking, connected/networked lifestyles allow people to live way out on the urban edge, which makes them even more dependent on the automobile to handle even the smallest of errands, since places of commerce and work are now located even further away. I'm not saying this is desirable, but it's just another outcome that technology can allow to happen.

Mr Peabody
08-14-2007, 06:03 PM
So why not offer an HD tuner in a receiver to the consumer as one of those features to get it to catch on? It's true you get a lot of gadgets for the money on electronics these days, keep in mind around the time you say the bottom dropped out, the U.S. had a new way to buy, big box stores started driving "mom & pop" out of business. I'm not so sure mobile electronics is so big either. Especially compared to the late 80's, early 90's, when car audio contests were big, and not just for being loud. I think if car audio was still booming, you wouldn't see brands like Rockford in BB.

I also wish HD video content would grow at the rate HD radio broadcasts did. I have a way to watch the HD content but still waiting on a viable way to listen to HD radio. You draw comparisons to other products on the market but I see HD radio as being exactly backwards from other products introduced to the market.

We sure did get some good mileage out of this thread. You never know when one will take off or just fade away.

Woochifer
08-15-2007, 04:04 PM
So why not offer an HD tuner in a receiver to the consumer as one of those features to get it to catch on? It's true you get a lot of gadgets for the money on electronics these days, keep in mind around the time you say the bottom dropped out, the U.S. had a new way to buy, big box stores started driving "mom & pop" out of business. I'm not so sure mobile electronics is so big either. Especially compared to the late 80's, early 90's, when car audio contests were big, and not just for being loud. I think if car audio was still booming, you wouldn't see brands like Rockford in BB.

I wouldn't say car audio is booming right now, but it's certainly not in a state of major contraction like home audio is.

The move to big box is indeed a major reason why you see the price points on audio products going through the floor. Wal-Mart has a policy of cutting out suppliers that cannot continually reduce costs from year to year for comparable products. And indeed consumer electronics has seen a market share shift from specialty stores to mass merchandisers. With these market conditions, the old price points simply could not be sustained, especially when factoring in inflation.

Of course, the flipside is that you can buy a much higher quality product today compared to what it would have cost you several years ago. Like I said, my parents' Marantz receiver would have cost $2,000 in today's dollars. That Marantz 2275 was a midlevel two-channel receiver, just think of what kind of two-channel front end you can buy today with $2,000 -- I can tell you it's much higher quality than that Marantz.


I also wish HD video content would grow at the rate HD radio broadcasts did. I have a way to watch the HD content but still waiting on a viable way to listen to HD radio. You draw comparisons to other products on the market but I see HD radio as being exactly backwards from other products introduced to the market.

What makes you think that HD video content hasn't grown? I believe that the majority of all TV stations around the country now broadcast in DTV, and the government mandate shutting down all analog OTA TV broadcasts is still on target for 2009. If you buy a HDTV and hoist an aerial antenna, in all likelihood you'll pick up a DTV signal for the majority of the stations in your market.

Of course, a DTV signal does not mean that all (or even most) of the content will be at HD resolution, and that's simply because most programming was not originally produced in HD. (When watching ESPN HD for example, notice that the live broadcast might be in HD, but most of the commercials and highlights are not) But, I don't think this is any different than HD Radio having to share the same compressed dynamic range and lossy music files. In both cases, just because the signal format allows for higher quality content does not mean that the broadcaster will necessarily make full use of that capability.

nightflier
08-17-2007, 05:54 PM
Wooch, let's see what bears out. So far HD radio has not really broken into the car market, whereas XM and Sirius have. To recommend that they should spend all their marketing dollars there seems risky.

I still think that HD has potential in the home market, even if only as a niche product. Given that it has better sound quality, to me, it seems like it would make that a natural fit. I am merely suggesting that they consider this since the car market hasn't been very fruitful for them. The hardware for component-sized tuners has not been subsidized, hence the dearth of affordable home products.

Finally, I am fairly certain that the phone-as-entertainment-medium is the iPod for the near future. If that's the case, then HD should be there too. The fact that small and efficient chips were not designed until recently is only an indication that not enough research money was made available in developing these. I think that this would be a better avenue for that marketing dollar, instead of using it on what I consider a stagnating market (the car market).

Remember that despite all those sales figures / stats / charts, however detailed they may be, these only show us what was, not what will be. We can perhaps extrapolate future trends with some degree of accuracy, but again, that is dependent on the industry doing the same thing it was doing, in a similar way. These figures do little to correct for sudden changes, watersheds, bubbles bursting, market crashes, another stupid comment by our pres., or heaven forbid, another war.

With new technologies, the internet and cellular networks, the time we old timers consider short - days, weeks months - may be an eternity to the trend setters out there. Things change fast. Remember the computer memory price bottoming out about a decade ago? That was because someone had smuggled a suitcase full of chips into the US and sold them on the gray market. If that's all it takes, I wouldn't hedge all by bets on the market doing the same thing it always has.

Bottom line:

1. The phone market is hot, and HD needs to be there.
2. The home market is where a better sounding product will get the most traction.
3. And there are enough HD products for cars, so they need to let that sit.

Anyhow, that's my opinion.