$3 Microsoft Windows/Office Bundle - is the $5 Xbox next?

[nightflier]

For all those discussions here that have revolved around Microsoft and whether it is a reputable company, this story should raise some eyebrows. I apologize about this not being entirely A/V specific, but Microsoft's announcement could very well bleed over into other markets and lower prices across the industry, including Xboxes, iPods, and the whole slew of computer-multimedia cross-over products.

Apparently now that there is an initiative under way to build $100 computers running free OpenSource software for the third world, Microsoft is offering their own software bundle at $3. Now if Microsoft can deliver this bundle at $3 in China, why can't we have that here in the US? Aren't there thousands of starving homeless children here too? Anyhow, here's the full story:

http://www.linux-watch.com/news/NS6409071283.html

[bubbagump]

MS is looking for anything it can get. I'm sure they're looking to breed customer familiarity and loyalty for a time when the country is more prosperous. As of a week or so ago, less than 500 copies of Vista had been sold in the entire country - a population of about 1.2 billion. Cost aside, pirating is a way of life there. Why pay anything when you can get it for free or for next to free. I can't think of a single product or technology that was developed in China (in the last 100 years or so anyway). This will change over time but in the mean time, China is a country populated mostly with poor peasantry. Three bucks is a lot of money for the vast majority of Chinese.

[nightflier]

China is a country populated mostly with poor peasantry. Three bucks is a lot of money for the vast majority of Chinese.

Have you ever been to Hong Kong, Shenghai, Beijing? There's a whole lot of folks there that had a lot more money than I ever had. They certainly could afford to buy Vista/Office (which is about CNY 2500, on the street) if they wanted to. Fact is, they don't want to. And what about the multi-billion-dollar Chinese corporations that have industry-leading standards to uphold? They certainly could afford it.

More importantly, Microsoft is offering these prices specifically to government and education customers, knowing full well that they are the most likely to adopt Linux, especially now that the $100 laptop is here. These potential customers are more computer-savvy than typical home users and are working with limited budgets, so Linux is much more realistic.

Pirating may be a concern, but then why pay $3 for something that they can then get for free as well? The fact that it's only $3 (CNY 23.43) in China, only makes the illegal pirating almost meaningless. Charging just $3 completely devalues the software, and by extension the programmers who write the software.

It seems to me Microsoft is raising prices on software here in the US so that they can dump the software elsewhere in the world. Since Microsoft can never hope to recoup that loss, we (rich & stupid Americans?) are basically asked to subsidize this extravagance. This is nothing short of product dumping, and in this country, that would be illegal.

[Feanor]

...
It seems to me Microsoft is raising prices on software here in the US so that they can dump the software elsewhere in the world. Since Microsoft can never hope to recoup that loss, we (rich & stupid Americans?) are basically asked to subsidize this extravagance. This is nothing short of product dumping, and in this country, that would be illegal.

No, MS isn't raising prices in NA so that they can dump in the developing world. They are raising prices here because the market here is ready, (if not really willing), to pay these prices. MS has a quasi-monopoly in the Office product and they are working where they can, i.e. in North American, Europe, and places that have copywrite laws and enforce them.

Do you suppose that MS really has to charge Cdn$500 for Office Standard when Corel Wordperfect Office is sold for $120 and Open Office is free? I really doubt it. No, its gouging.

[nightflier]

No, MS isn't raising prices in NA so that they can dump in the developing world. They are raising prices here because the market here is ready, (if not really willing), to pay these prices. MS has a quasi-monopoly in the Office product and they are working where they can, i.e. in North American, Europe, and places that have copywrite laws and enforce them. Do you suppose that MS really has to charge Cdn$500 for Office Standard when Corel Wordperfect Office is sold for $120 and Open Office is free? I really doubt it. No, its gouging.

I should have clarified. Microsoft's different Vista options amount to higher prices overall for the same or similar functionality in Windows XP. The same is true for Office. Also, Microsoft is raising prices on its select and other large-volume discount clients. So overall, Microsoft is raising prices. While inflation accounts for some of that, this is still outweighed by the price increases.

What is more galling, is that the option to buy WindowsXP and last year's version of Office is quickly disappearing. There is a huge push for OEMs and vendors to push Vista and the newest Office suite out on new machines (Dell went through hell just to be allowed to sell new systems with WinXP, even though their customers overwhelmingly requested it). If you consider that that same $3 bundle that Microsoft is going to sell in China still costs $300-400 here, you have to ask yourself, what is the true value of the software?

Maybe the OpenSource folks were right all along: software should be free. Especially if that software has been replaced with newer versions.

[emorphien]

The $3 bundles aren't full featured, but that isn't the point, it's still less than a comparable product would be here. This is like textbooks in this country. We might pay $150 for a textbook but the same content is sold for $10 in India and its cheaper to have the Indian version imported than to buy the US edition (I did just that on a book I'm using now).

I do like Vista and the new Office, but the prices of software in this country (not just from MS) are often absurd.

Nothing will ever get me to use Open Office again :lol:

[kexodusc]

You have to understand Microsoft's at a point where the only place for it to go is sideways, or down. It can expand into new markets and complicate it's business. This is where I see them heading to be honest, new products, new markets, new revenue streams. But when it comes to their core business, it'll be almost impossible for them to expand their reach in the OS and office suite marketplace. So they're playing damage control right now. That's what these $3 bundles are for, to keep the competition minimized, not to expand into new markets so much (at least not yet, though there's hope that someday they'll be hooked to MS enough to want to pay full retail for it).

I, like many others are incredibly disappointed at the lack of progress that was promised with Vista. It's a slight improvement on Windows XP from my perspective, looks prettier, I guess, but adds almost nothing that will increase productivity. Just the opposite, things are more complicated and downright annoying now. It'll be successful only by the degree to which people buy computers pre-loaded with it. I'm baffled why it takes so much computing power to do what other operatings systems do with less, but that's another thread.

I use Mac OSX and various Linux distros most of the time now. Work gave me a macbook for a laptop, at home my wife's computer has Vista on it (couldn't talk her into a Mac). I use Open Office, for word processing, spreadsheet and presentation software, which I find easily a match for Office, with the exception of some portfolio management models we use at work that runs very complex macros that Open Office has trouble importing error free and synching up with some proprietary software. But that's a compatibility issue more than a software flaw. IMO, OO just keeps getting better. I wouldn't say it's as good as Office, but for the vast majority of personal use, it's an infinitely superior value. Once you quit trying to use Open Office like Office and use it like it's own program, it's a very viable alternative.That's something - If I can learn to use these anyone can. A year or two ago I got into a mini debate with our Admin, Ericl, and was defending Windows. After a little battle with Microsoft I vowed to avoid them as much as I can.

Google, I believe is or has launched its own web based suite which should also decrease some demand for Office, and that's where they're trying to take the industry.

I doubt any of these competitors is likely to overthrow Microsoft's status as king at all in the next several years, but a whole bunch of small competitors slowly chipping away at Microsoft's market share spells bad news for them. They'll never enjoy the market share they once had. If they keep lowballing developing countries though, the only thing I can see happening is exactly what's happened on this thread - the old market gets a bit pissed off about the two tier treatment.

With Dell announcing their going to listen to their customers and offer Linux OS with their machines as an alternative to windows, and HP reportedly following, the next few years could be interesting for Microsoft. Seems like a lot of companies MS pushed around in its hey-day are teaming up against it. IBM, Dell, HP, Apple, Google, etc, big players in the industry with far more combined pull than MS alone. It's about time Microsoft faced a bit of legitimate competition. Maybe we'll see some price drops on their bloatware now.

[emorphien]

I, like many others are incredibly disappointed at the lack of progress that was promised with Vista. It's a slight improvement on Windows XP from my perspective, looks prettier, I guess, but adds almost nothing that will increase productivity. Just the opposite, things are more complicated and downright annoying now. It'll be successful only by the degree to which people buy computers pre-loaded with it. I'm baffled why it takes so much computing power to do what other operatings systems do with less, but that's another thread.
They definitely failed to follow through on a lot of the features they promised, but it still has some significant improvements over XP like the RAM management system and a lot of interface components have been tweaked (the search and file browsers are better than XP and OSX IMO).


I use Mac OSX and various Linux distros most of the time now. Work gave me a macbook for a laptop, at home my wife's computer has Vista on it (couldn't talk her into a Mac). I use Open Office, for word processing, spreadsheet and presentation software, which I find easily a match for Office, with the exception of some portfolio management models we use at work that runs very complex macros that Open Office has trouble importing error free and synching up with some proprietary software. But that's a compatibility issue more than a software flaw. IMO, OO just keeps getting better. I wouldn't say it's as good as Office, but for the vast majority of personal use, it's an infinitely superior value. Once you quit trying to use Open Office like Office and use it like it's own program, it's a very viable alternative.That's something - If I can learn to use these anyone can. A year or two ago I got into a mini debate with our Admin, Ericl, and was defending Windows. After a little battle with Microsoft I vowed to avoid them as much as I can.
You are one of few people I've heard defend Open Office. I've run it on my Windows systems in the past and on my Mac and I just can't stand it. Slow, buggy, illogically laid out, I'd rather use Corel or other programs and pay money for them than use OO. The only person I know who uses OO daily now also swears at it every hour.

[kexodusc]

You are one of few people I've heard defend Open Office. I've run it on my Windows systems in the past and on my Mac and I just can't stand it. Slow, buggy, illogically laid out, I'd rather use Corel or other programs and pay money for them than use OO. The only person I know who uses OO daily now also swears at it every hour.

Really? I know some of the older versions were terrible, I tried it once before and lasted a few hours. I've only been using again it since December, but i find it extremely easy to use, especially if you're coming from Microsoft Office. A retarded monkey could figure it out. Illogically laid out? It looks so similar MS Office and any other program. It's actually more intuitive in many areas. My only gripe is the "Paste Special" menu that's a bit annoying but that's minor. Haven't had any bugs, but I'm sure there there like any other software.
Definitely not nearly as resource hogging as MS Office though. A few of our clients use it, which was how I was introduced to it originally. Probably not as good as Office yet but for the majority of home users it's far more than sufficient and the price is right. I love the fact it saves files in the MS format and even PDF. If my mom can use, it anyone can.

[emorphien]

I found it's support for the MS format was poor, yeah it can save an open them, but not always correctly. At a university that doesn't work because it has to interface with other computers that are running office.

I found their version of powerpoint was extremely bloated and a major resource hog as well.

Personally, it's free because it's not worth much more, it's too big of a pain in the backside. All I can do is shrug at our different experiences.

[nightflier]

...It's about time Microsoft faced a bit of legitimate competition. Maybe we'll see some price drops on their bloatware now.

Price drops, sure, but I'd also like to see some better products and I hope that renewed competition will make that happen. I'm still using Microsoft products at work (I have no choice in the matter), but at home I use all Open Source because it is less bloated with features I don't want - bottom line is that open source apps and OSs are far more configurable than their commercial counterparts. Just compare Abiword to MS Word, Xara or Inkscape to Illustrator, Scribus to Pagemaker, and Enlightenment-Linux over Windows Vista. And if you recompile the kernel to fine-tune your OSs, you'll improve speed even more.

But back to the point, I think what allowed Xbox to dominate over the PS2, is the PS2 itself, i.e. the competition from Sony made the Xbox such a good product. Windows has no competition on the desktop and so it is bloated, slow, buggy, and hardware intensive. I wouldn't be surprised if Vista is the last version of Windows we see. It certainly has no chance of becoming the interface in my TV room, something that embedded Linux OSs are infinitely more capable of. And don't even think anyone is going to want that on their phone.

So in an effort to get people to like Microsoft, they are dumping a trimmed-down version of XP/Office on the third world to snuff out Linux and because it's the only thing that will run on those older computers. Heck, why doesn't Microsoft just Open Source Windows XP? After all, they are still glomming onto DOS with their copyright nonsense. Why? This $3 bundle proposal is not benevolence, it's greed; and it is product-dumping to force competitors out of business.

[basite]

80% of what Micro$ sells it for is pure profit, so do 500 - 400(80%) = $100 that is the cost of the actual price they could sell it for (without making losses).
then, the actual worth of the program: the $100 is the price which includes the promotion of the article, the loans, the production costs, and the fact that it is microsoft (you buy the name). Now, there are almost no promotion costs in this case, production will most likely be done in china, making it cheaper, and microsoft knows they can get alot of customers here, so they don't add the name to the price.

which makes $3 about the worth of the program...
they don't make profit in this way, but they are making sure that the chinese people will use microsoft products, and not linux, so they have the biggest market share.

[kexodusc]

So in an effort to get people to like Microsoft, they are dumping a trimmed-down version of XP/Office on the third world to snuff out Linux and because it's the only thing that will run on those older computers. Heck, why doesn't Microsoft just Open Source Windows XP? After all, they are still glomming onto DOS with their copyright nonsense. Why? This $3 bundle proposal is not benevolence, it's greed; and it is product-dumping to force competitors out of business.

Recompiling the kernel? Dude you're waaaaay more into it than I am..Good on ya!

Microsoft is what it is. Don't think anyone is mistaking the $3 bundle as a benevolence or charity. The way Linux and Open Source software are taking off in poor countries, I don't think Microsoft will accomplish much by this. If $3 is significant money to you, and you can get an alternative for free, why spend $3? The EU seems to have a real hate on for Microsoft right now, so hopefully Open Source continues to build some momentum. You're right, just because it isn't free doesn't mean it's good software at all!

[AmpItUP]

MS seems to think that its okay to sell programs cheap in other countries, since Americans pay for the cost difference. That's just too absurd.



________________
Bambam
Definitive Technology ProCinema 1000 (http://www.who-sells-it.com/cy/definitive-technology-1471/procinema-800-1000-systems-5861.html) - ProCinema 800 & 1000 Systems Catalog by Definitive Technology

[emorphien]

MS seems to think that its okay to sell programs cheap in other countries, since Americans pay for the cost difference. That's just too absurd.
Unfortunately they're not leading the way on this concept. We get screwed all the time.

[Feanor]

MS seems to think that its okay to sell programs cheap in other countries, since Americans pay for the cost difference. That's just too absurd.
________________
Bambam
Definitive Technology ProCinema 1000 (http://www.who-sells-it.com/cy/definitive-technology-1471/procinema-800-1000-systems-5861.html) - ProCinema 800 & 1000 Systems Catalog by Definitive Technology

I don't think to "cost" has a lot to do with it. By cost I assume we're talking the cost of the development of the product, specifically MS Office. As I said elsewhere in this thread, Corel can offer Wordperfect Office for Cdn$120 and Open Office theirs for free: how come we in NA have to pay Cdn$600 for the MS version? No, it doesn't cost MS 5x as much to develop their product. In fact there is little connection between the price they charge and the actual cost of the product.

OK, so in terms of values, is MSO better, more leading-edge, etc.? Do they provide better product support? ( ... there's a joke: whatever happened to product manuals; whatever happen to free support lines?) Whatever, but in terms of basic functionality is MSO really worth 5x the bucks to you, me, or most users? I think not. No, it's the compatibility that we need with all those other MSO users that gives Gates & Co. their leverage.

In NA, Europe, and few other places with enforced copywrite laws, MS have a quasi-monopoly and they use it to full advantage. Where copywrite is unenforceable they the condescend to sell their product cheaper ... much, much cheaper. And believe it that they aren't losing money.

[nightflier]

...Where copywrite is unenforceable they the condescend to sell their product cheaper ... much, much cheaper. And believe it that they aren't losing money.

Dell's offer to pre-install Ubuntu on desktops is going to change the marketplace. While other manufacturers have tried the Linux route, this is the first high-profile announcement of the sort, and unlike many of the other big-volume manufacturers like IBM and HP who also offer Linux from RedHat & Novell-Suse, Dell is offering completely OpenSource software and endorsing the model with open arms. This will give Microsoft's business model something to wrestle with for the first time since OS/2 had a shot (albeit a horribly marketed one).

Rumor has it that Michael Dell was so impressed with Ubuntu running on his personal laptop, that he was reborn a convert. Many industry observers see the company's decision as a testament to OpenSource software having matured to the point that it is now more stable, reliable, and advanced than proprietary software. Many have attributed this to the software's development and support model, something that private companies are finding much harder to compete against. Perhaps more to the point is that Dell and the company bean counters are returning to the model that they are foremost a hardware company, not a software company. Consequently they see the hardware markets in Europe, South America and Asia, where OpenSource is far more prevalent, as having more growth (read: profit) potential than here.

Could it be that we are on the verge of a major paradigm shift in software, probably brought on by the OpenSource model? The signs were there when all the major brick & mortar software retailers started to fold (does anyone still remember Egghead or SoftwareEtc.?). Now we see that same trend online with the major shops like Amazon and PCmall moving to hardware and home entertainment. Even volume software sales, a former cash cow for the big software resellers, also loosing a lot of ground. I think OpenSource has reached a point of PC saturation, much in the same way Napster did a few years back. What we will witness in the next two years is an increasingly violent battle where the big software developpers will do everything they can to extinguish OpenSource. The Microsoft-Novell deal and this $3 Chinese software bundle are Microsoft's first salvos into the fray. GPL v3 and Ubuntu's recent copyright announcement in regards to its name are a first response.

And then there's a whole other side to this paradigm shift: how will this change impact other software-dependent industries like AV, especially concerning the rapid integration of PCs with home AV? When the shackles are lifted from traditional software, will movies and music, which are essentially software as well, also be free? Will Xbox/PS3 games also be free? Will we one day see an OpenSource album online, free to be downloaded, copied and mashed? Prince, Tracy Chapman, Bruce Springsteen, are you reading this?

[kexodusc]

Dell's offer to pre-install Ubuntu on desktops is going to change the marketplace. While other manufacturers have tried the Linux route, this is the first high-profile announcement of the sort, and unlike many of the other big-volume manufacturers like IBM and HP who also offer Linux from RedHat & Novell-Suse, Dell is offering completely OpenSource software and endorsing the model with open arms. This will give Microsoft's business model something to wrestle with for the first time since OS/2 had a shot (albeit a horribly marketed one).

Rumor has it that Michael Dell was so impressed with Ubuntu running on his personal laptop, that he was reborn a convert. Many industry observers see the company's decision as a testament to OpenSource software having matured to the point that it is now more stable, reliable, and advanced than proprietary software. Many have attributed this to the software's development and support model, something that private companies are finding much harder to compete against. Perhaps more to the point is that Dell and the company bean counters are returning to the model that they are foremost a hardware company, not a software company. Consequently they see the hardware markets in Europe, South America and Asia, where OpenSource is far more prevalent, as having more growth (read: profit) potential than here.

Could it be that we are on the verge of a major paradigm shift in software, probably brought on by the OpenSource model? The signs were there when all the major brick & mortar software retailers started to fold (does anyone still remember Egghead or SoftwareEtc.?). Now we see that same trend online with the major shops like Amazon and PCmall moving to hardware and home entertainment. Even volume software sales, a former cash cow for the big software resellers, also loosing a lot of ground. I think OpenSource has reached a point of PC saturation, much in the same way Napster did a few years back. What we will witness in the next two years is an increasingly violent battle where the big software developpers will do everything they can to extinguish OpenSource. The Microsoft-Novell deal and this $3 Chinese software bundle are Microsoft's first salvos into the fray. GPL v3 and Ubuntu's recent copyright announcement in regards to its name are a first response.

And then there's a whole other side to this paradigm shift: how will this change impact other software-dependent industries like AV, especially concerning the rapid integration of PCs with home AV? When the shackles are lifted from traditional software, will movies and music, which are essentially software as well, also be free? Will Xbox/PS3 games also be free? Will we one day see an OpenSource album online, free to be downloaded, copied and mashed? Prince, Tracy Chapman, Bruce Springsteen, are you reading this?

HP reportedly has plans to distribute a Linux OS on their home PC's in the future as well. No idea what distro, but that doesn't matter to me much.
You're right, this is incredibly significant.
Now we'll see identical PC machines priced differently based on the OS they have. No more hiding the cost of Windows pre-loaded in the machine. The Linux community will benefit from increased driver support if nothing else.
I don't think the low-ball price tactics are going to be effective at preventing the transition to OpenSource. My biggest question on this mini-revolution (if it ever happens) is how does Microsoft fight the anti-monopoly, anit-establishment, anti-everything mentality of the youthful customer in today's world that makes it so desireable to seek out an alternative to Windows? This is going to be as much about image and attitude, the spirit of OpenSource vs pay-to-play, as it is about software compatibility and functionality.

[nightflier]

And does anyone have any thoughts on...

...how this will impact other software-dependent industries like AV, especially concerning the rapid integration of PCs with home AV? When the shackles are lifted from traditional software, will movies and music, which are essentially software as well, also be free? Will Xbox/PS3 games also be free? Will we one day see an OpenSource album online, free to be downloaded, copied and mashed?"
(Sorry to rehash my own post, but this is really what I was trying to ask when I strated this thread)

[nightflier]

Sorry to revive this thread, but I think this past week's news about Microsoft suing Linux distributors over supposedly owned patents, makes this a necessity. Between all the mudslinging, there are a few interesting ideas that have come to the fore:

- Based on the theory that companies start suing over patents when they needs additional revenue (remember SCO?), there has been speculation that Microsoft is suffering from internal troubles (dismal Vista / Office '07 sales, no real revenue from Xbox 360 or Zune, and less that stellar sales figures for their enterprise-level apps). Could the company be imploding?

- Google apps is all the rage right now, and they are giving the stuff away to HigherEd/Governments/Non-profits/K-12, essentially erroding the installed software industry, Microsoft's mainstay.

- Microsoft has been distancing itself from Toshiba and the HD-DVD camp.

- Talks between Microsoft and the OLPC group (the folks building the $100 computer for third-world children which is currently running open-source software), have stalled. Apparently Microsoft wants the computer to be more expensive to help recoup their losses.

- The $3 bundle that they promised to China is also hitting some snags. Apparently Microsoft wants more guarantees against piracy of their premium software. Given that China has the largest per-capita installed base of Linux users, that may not be a strong position to take.

- The supreme court's recent decision to restrain patent owners' right to sue, is also being suggested as a reason why Microsoft's option to sue Linux distributors is a shaky proposition. In addition, this will also bring back long-buried questions about Microsoft's patent history (remember Apple's suit against Microsoft?).

Anyhow, everywhere it seems that the software sales to subscription model, that has been Microsoft's bread and butter, is giving way to open source alternatives and platform-independent web-based apps. While this may seem inconsequential to the A/V crowd here, I think this is a sign that all software, including the movie and music industry may soon be flooded with Open Source alternatives. I just did a cursory search online and found the following web sites:

OpenSource Music Website:
http://www.opensourcemusic.com/

OpenSource Movies:
http://www.archive.org/details/opensource_movies

Elephants Dream: World's First OpenSource film (free to download):
http://www.elephantsdream.org/

Nothing So Strange: another OpenSource film:
http://www.nothingsostrange.com/open_source/

While it's not likely we'll see Spiderman or Pirates available for free download any time soon (at least legally), there is a very real possibility that as more and more people watch movies from home-downloaded devices, these OpenSource alternatives will get a greater foothold on the consumer, er.. I mean the "freesumer."

On a related topic, it's quite likely that this may give hardware (receivers, TVs, speakers, etc.) a newfound value as the industry shifts away from software as a source of profit. Who knows, maybe Plasma TVs will stop dropping in price...

[emorphien]

I'd gladly switch to more open source free software if it worked as well as the stuff I pay money for on a daily basis, but that hasn't been my experience. I get the feeling these stories of doom are, as usual, a tad exaggerated.

I don't know anyone using google apps although I'll probably start playing with them over the summer some (although my project is to learn Matlab and start using Latex). I do use google ig for my home page, gmail and google calendar which is really slick (needs a to-do list but i hear that may be coming soon).

[kexodusc]

I'd gladly switch to more open source free software if it worked as well as the stuff I pay money for on a daily basis, but that hasn't been my experience.

That's funny, I switched from the stuff I paid for the to the free stuff because it worked much better. I certainly don't choose something that's inferior to what I already had just for fun.

I think the biggest barrier to entry still remains the initial learning process for most - it's like a drug addict weening themselves off Windows and re-learning how to compute. Most people are familiar with Windows, and when they run into something new they can't instantly figugre out they panic. Are most people prepared to take a few weeks to familiarize themselves with alternatives? Who knows. Looks like more and more are as growth in the OpenSource continues to surge.

I don't think Microsoft is going to stop being the #1 player anytime soon, but they will definitely lose their influence on the computing industry and be a minority voice instead of an overwhelming majority voice. This will benefit everyone as they'll be forced to listen, and partner with other stakeholders.

[kexodusc]

Sorry to revive this thread, but I think this past week's news about Microsoft suing Linux distributors over supposedly owned patents, makes this a necessity. Between all the mudslinging, there are a few interesting ideas that have come to the fore:

- Based on the theory that companies start suing over patents when they needs additional revenue (remember SCO?), there has been speculation that Microsoft is suffering from internal troubles (dismal Vista / Office '07 sales, no real revenue from Xbox 360 or Zune, and less that stellar sales figures for their enterprise-level apps). Could the company be imploding?

- Google apps is all the rage right now, and they are giving the stuff away to HigherEd/Governments/Non-profits/K-12, essentially erroding the installed software industry, Microsoft's mainstay.

- Microsoft has been distancing itself from Toshiba and the HD-DVD camp.

- Talks between Microsoft and the OLPC group (the folks building the $100 computer for third-world children which is currently running open-source software), have stalled. Apparently Microsoft wants the computer to be more expensive to help recoup their losses.

- The $3 bundle that they promised to China is also hitting some snags. Apparently Microsoft wants more guarantees against piracy of their premium software. Given that China has the largest per-capita installed base of Linux users, that may not be a strong position to take.

- The supreme court's recent decision to restrain patent owners' right to sue, is also being suggested as a reason why Microsoft's option to sue Linux distributors is a shaky proposition. In addition, this will also bring back long-buried questions about Microsoft's patent history (remember Apple's suit against Microsoft?).

Anyhow, everywhere it seems that the software sales to subscription model, that has been Microsoft's bread and butter, is giving way to open source alternatives and platform-independent web-based apps. While this may seem inconsequential to the A/V crowd here, I think this is a sign that all software, including the movie and music industry may soon be flooded with Open Source alternatives. I just did a cursory search online and found the following web sites.

Microsoft is blowing a whole lot of smoke here. Just playing damage control. Ask yourself this question: Is the cost of filing a lawsuit worth paying if it deters a few easily frightened people from Linux for a little while? Sure. It doesn't cost much. It it keeps some customers loyal for a bit and creates some concern, mission accomplished.

The actual chances of this case being successful are extremely low as Microsoft's already failed with similar lawsuits against Apple, Corel, etc. These so-called patents are only patented in the USA because they are "user interface" patents. Like double-clicking and right clicking functions. There's already been a court decision determining these un-patentable, and a lot of work is underway by the patent police in the USA to invalidate some of these wrongfully registered patents. Most countries don't allow for these kinds of patents anyway.

What is completely hilarious about this is that Microsoft won't disclose what code has violated what patents yet. Just like the useless SCO vs IBM case.
Even more, if this actually goes to court and Microsoft was to win, Apple, IBM, Google, Corel, Sun, Yahoo, and just about every other company Microsoft has copied, stolen, or borrowed ideas from will retaliate in kind.

The combined wealth of Microsoft's biggest enemies absolutely dwarfs it now. This is synonymous with a bully being attacked by every kid in the school yard at once. I suspect they won't bother pursuing this very hard out of fear of retaliation, but instead they'll just say the suit is on-going to try to keep scaring people. When IBM and Dell can agree to cooperate, you know there's some serious hatred there.

I wouldn't be surprised if bit by bit Mircorsoft starts to scale back on their software development and OS strategy, and start the transition to more service and web based products.

I'm enjoying watching them sweat.

[Feanor]

That's funny, I switched from the stuff I paid for the to the free stuff because it worked much better. I certainly don't choose something that's inferior to what I already had just for fun.

I think the biggest barrier to entry still remains the initial learning process for most - it's like a drug addict weening themselves off Windows and re-learning how to compute. Most people are familiar with Windows, and when they run into something new they can't instantly figugre out they panic. Are most people prepared to take a few weeks to familiarize themselves with alternatives?
....


I'm sure you're right that people don't make the effort as often as they ought to. Then again, they don't want their efforts to be wasted.

E.g. I wanted a free substitute for MS Access, (Cdn$350), so I looked a number of freebies and decided to try Open Office which advertized a desktop DBMS. So I downloaded it, installed it, blah-yada, and tried it out. Could I built a database in Open Office as in Access? Pretty much, yes, for what I wanted to do. Great so far: but when it came to importing the data that I had in Excel: no go. Obviously I next converted the Excel sheets to .csv and length-delimited text file to see if I could import those: still no go. :mad2: Simply put, there was no practical way to import data into the Open Office database manager -- this is a serious functional deficiency. Bottom line, I spent 3-4 hours which were a complete waste of time. :mad5:

[emorphien]

That's funny, I switched from the stuff I paid for the to the free stuff because it worked much better. I certainly don't choose something that's inferior to what I already had just for fun.

I think the biggest barrier to entry still remains the initial learning process for most - it's like a drug addict weening themselves off Windows and re-learning how to compute. Most people are familiar with Windows, and when they run into something new they can't instantly figugre out they panic. Are most people prepared to take a few weeks to familiarize themselves with alternatives? Who knows. Looks like more and more are as growth in the OpenSource continues to surge.
I think Feanor is right. A lot of people have tried, and found their efforts wasted. OO on Windows or OSX? Horrible in my experience, and it has nothing to do with relearning. I relearn and try new software all the time. I have an old desktop with XP Pro, a new one with Vista 64, and two Thinkpads, one with XP Pro and another dual booting XP Pro and Ubuntu and I also have a Mac in my office. The software I have spread between them varies wildly.

Some open source software is great, I always look out for open source solutions first and I always check places like sourceforge when I have a need for some kind of software I don't own or don't have already from open source and a lot of times you can find something pretty good, but there are certain areas where the open source has the look in some cases and even a lot of functionality, but not the performance, the polish, the convenience or the thought put in to it to truly compete such as in design, photo editing, and IMO office software.

Open source can and often is great, but it isn't perfect and I just don't have the time or inclination to put up with sloppy open source software. If it costs me $130 to have software that works right every time and it's something I use a lot (like office, or image editing with photoshop that costs even more) then I would much rather pay for and use that. It's got absolutely nothing to do with "getting used to it" so perhaps what works for you or hasn't caused you problems has been nothing but a thorn for someone else (and I knew plenty of people who share my experience about open office for example). And Feanor touches on good points there as well, the connectivity between office apps isn't as mature in OO, and it has trouble with its own file formats sometimes, never mind the fact that I need to be able to bring in and put out files that regular old Microsoft office can handle, which OO says it can do. It does, but poorly. Even if compatibility with the MS file formas weren't a requirement for me, there are still enough usability issues, streamlining issues and data-sharing issues between the applications that I wouldn't be using it yet.

[nightflier]

Open source can and often is great, but it isn't perfect and I just don't have the time or inclination to put up with sloppy open source software. If it costs me $130 to have software that works right every time and it's something I use a lot (like office, or image editing with photoshop that costs even more) then I would much rather pay for and use that. It's got absolutely nothing to do with "getting used to it" so perhaps what works for you or hasn't caused you problems has been nothing but a thorn for someone else (and I knew plenty of people who share my experience about open office for example). And Feanor touches on good points there as well, the connectivity between office apps isn't as mature in OO, and it has trouble with its own file formats sometimes, never mind the fact that I need to be able to bring in and put out files that regular old Microsoft office can handle, which OO says it can do. It does, but poorly. Even if compatibility with the MS file formas weren't a requirement for me, there are still enough usability issues, streamlining issues and data-sharing issues between the applications that I wouldn't be using it yet.

I'm going to guess that a good 80% of home users, don't import databases or have a need to perform tasks beyond the functionality of Google Apps. Yes, online apps and OpenSource are not as mature yet, but over time that may change - didn't MS DOS and Windows take some years/version to become truly useful products? I think the more important idea here is that OpenSource and Online Apps can be an alternative, not necessarily a replacement (you can run them on Windows, for example). And while they may not fill every need, they are free. Let's remember that the retail prices of Windows, Office, Photoshop, and Dreamweaver can easily cost more than the computer they are running on.

Another factor that is being misunderstood is that OpenSource software draws on the skills of thousands of programmers and no closed-source company can compete with the quality, security, reliability that this advantage provides - the "more eyes on the code" concept. The fact is that many projects such as Apache, Linux, Firefox/Thunderbird, KDE, Samba, and yes, even Open Office are better products, more robust, and way more secure. The criticism comes when they are asked to inter-operate with closed-source products. Of course not all closed-source companies will be embracing these products with open arms and so make it that much harder for the products to work together - Microsoft pushing OOXML instead of ODF, for example. But taken on their own, in a completely open-source environment they are years ahead in quality.

But I think the more important factor is that the closed-source software companies have to resort to draconian licensing policies to maintain profitability. Microsoft won't admit it, but the reason for it's meteoric rise on the desktop was the fact that it was easy to bootleg. Another factor was the corporation's rapacious policies. People may not remember that Microsoft did everything they could to undermine the competition, from undercutting competitor's prices to impossible levels (NT Server, Exchange, VBasic), circumventing competitor's licensing requirements (the infamous Novell Gateway Service), and just dumping free products on the market (IIS, IE, FrontPage). The ease of bootlegging and the undercutting of competitors' prices are the two main factors that led to Microsoft's dominance.

Now that they are on top, they are bait-and-switching the users and distributors. They are alienating those very customers who pay the highest prices for their software: the home users and small businesses. Violators are treated like criminals, even terrorist-sympathizers in ads, not unlike the portrayal of music downloaders. All these actions do nothing more than to drive customers to alternatives. And Microsoft's dogged efforts to destroy the competition is only increasing sympathy for them (hmmm, doesn't that sound like a familiar paradigm?)

What I'm reading online is outright rage against the years of Microsoft oppression, not unlike the rage against IBM two decades ago. And this sentiment is not just coming from the users. Even large companies like Dell, Red Hat, and AMD, as well as local, state and national governments are finally able to tell Microsoft bullies that they have alternatives. These are real alternatives, that consequently work better for them, even at the large-volume prices Microsoft was strong-arming them with. I'll tell you from my own experience that there is a groundswell of resistance to Microsoft licensing in higher education and government. It started with a murmur for RedHat and Novell-Suse Linux as a less-expensive corporate alternative, but now it has spread to a heartfelt enthusiasm for Ubuntu and OpenOffice (just looks at the dwindling download numbers for RedHat and Novell-Suse). This community will generate more updates and improvements in those apps and thus contribute to the growth. And then Microsoft is facing a flanking threat from online apps: Google is making very real inroads here, especially in student labs, public cafes, libraries, and government agencies... The times, they are a' changin'.

Now I suspect that the software industry is only the first step in a much more widespread movement. The music and movie industry will also find itself under increasing pressure from OpenSource alternatives freely available via internet downloads. They were able to kill off Napster, P2P, and to a lesser extent BitTorrent, but they can't compete against free music and movies. They will also resort to patent suits, and we may see a a huge rise in ridiculous patent claims over even the most basic images, themes, sounds, and ideas, but how far can they carry this? ...If you haven't sold your MGM or Disney stock yet, you probably should.

And just so everyone can call me a loon - I'll even go as far as saying that the current political climate with its extreme repression is only serving as a catalyst to this phenomenon, this desire for people to be free. I think we may be on the verge of another 1960's-era freedom movement spanning all aspects of society; and this time, it will be global.

OK, let the crap fly!

[kexodusc]

I think Feanor is right. A lot of people have tried, and found their efforts wasted. OO on Windows or OSX? Horrible in my experience, and it has nothing to do with relearning. I relearn and try new software all the time. I have an old desktop with XP Pro, a new one with Vista 64, and two Thinkpads, one with XP Pro and another dual booting XP Pro and Ubuntu and I also have a Mac in my office. The software I have spread between them varies wildly.

Some open source software is great, I always look out for open source solutions first and I always check places like sourceforge when I have a need for some kind of software I don't own or don't have already from open source and a lot of times you can find something pretty good, but there are certain areas where the open source has the look in some cases and even a lot of functionality, but not the performance, the polish, the convenience or the thought put in to it to truly compete such as in design, photo editing, and IMO office software.

Open source can and often is great, but it isn't perfect and I just don't have the time or inclination to put up with sloppy open source software. If it costs me $130 to have software that works right every time and it's something I use a lot (like office, or image editing with photoshop that costs even more) then I would much rather pay for and use that. It's got absolutely nothing to do with "getting used to it" so perhaps what works for you or hasn't caused you problems has been nothing but a thorn for someone else (and I knew plenty of people who share my experience about open office for example). And Feanor touches on good points there as well, the connectivity between office apps isn't as mature in OO, and it has trouble with its own file formats sometimes, never mind the fact that I need to be able to bring in and put out files that regular old Microsoft office can handle, which OO says it can do. It does, but poorly. Even if compatibility with the MS file formas weren't a requirement for me, there are still enough usability issues, streamlining issues and data-sharing issues between the applications that I wouldn't be using it yet.
Well you wont' get any arguments from me on some of the incompatibilty issues OO has with proprietary Microsoft formats in the past. 2.2 seems a lot better though I'm sure it's still not perfect. It's playing catch-up for sure. I'm only one person and my near perfect track-record isn't necessarily indicative of everyone's experience, that's for sure.

As for sloppy software and compatibility with 3rd party software- I can assure you Microsoft has it's own problems integrating with other programs. And it definitely isn't cheap to pay for support.

Anyway, not sure how we got back on the OO bashing topic, but needless to say the gap in performance between it and Office is decreasing at a rapid pace. If things keep up it's just a matter of time. It's come a long way in just a few years and is a very viable alternative to many people.

[kexodusc]

I'm sure you're right that people don't make the effort as often as they ought to. Then again, they don't want their efforts to be wasted.

E.g. I wanted a free substitute for MS Access, (Cdn$350), so I looked a number of freebies and decided to try Open Office which advertized a desktop DBMS. So I downloaded it, installed it, blah-yada, and tried it out. Could I built a database in Open Office as in Access? Pretty much, yes, for what I wanted to do. Great so far: but when it came to importing the data that I had in Excel: no go. Obviously I next converted the Excel sheets to .csv and length-delimited text file to see if I could import those: still no go. :mad2: Simply put, there was no practical way to import data into the Open Office database manager -- this is a serious functional deficiency. Bottom line, I spent 3-4 hours which were a complete waste of time. :mad5:

Dunno what to say here, Feanor, I almost find it hard to believe you struggled so much - I import financial transaction records into a database from either Excel or Open Office into Open Office's Base program almost daily with next to no difficulty. The only problem I had was a minor text formating issue, but that was easy to solve once I knew to plan ahead. I'm by no means a computer wiz by any stretch of the imagination.

I'm guessing worst case you'll have to massage the excel document, something I've had to do to import into Access in the past anyway? Maybe your DB is just way more complex than mine though. If you were a company, the question would be whether you could accomplish your goals with this software and specialized support cheaper than licensing the software from Microsoft. I'll admit for home use, it's not exactly practical to call up Sun and ask for a solution.

[Feanor]

Dunno what to say here, Feanor, I almost find it hard to believe you struggled so much - I import financial transaction records into a database from either Excel or Open Office into Open Office's Base program almost daily with next to no difficulty.
...

Kex,

I've you've done it I guess it can be done. :) I tried it perhaps a year ago and was totally unable to get it to work, as I explained. But since I'm not inclined to spend 350 bucks on MS Access perhaps I'll give it another try.