HIGH-DEF Disc Absolute Sales Figures.

[Smokey]

The new Nielsen survey of next-gen DVD sales report on absolute sales of High Def discs is rather interesting and somewhat sobering. The report compiled from Nielsen VideoScan show that as of March 18, the cumulative number of Blu-ray titles sold since the format's inception at 844,000 units, versus HD DVD at 708,600.

These charts confirm the previously reported strong showings for such A-list titles as 'The Departed' 'Batman Begins' and 'Superman Returns', they also demonstrate a very steep drop-off for titles outside of that top rung, with even discs among the top-ten best sellers that week moving fewer than 1000 units apiece:

http://www.highdefdigest.com/images/post/2/2256/original.gif

The lower sales numbers at the bottom end of weekly list and on display elsewhere in the report (where some titles are listed as selling fewer than 200 units since inception) are certainly still a sobering reminder that both formats still have a long way to go in their shared quest to supplant standard-def DVD.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/564

[markw]

It would appear that Blu-ray seems to be outselling HD-DVD, although it's more of a "Lord of the Flies" situation in the grand scheme of things.

I truly believe that if there was only one format, it would have taken off a lot quicker. Does anyone else remember the great Quad wars of the 70's? where the formats fought each other to the death?

But, since SACD and DVD-Audio are still battling it out (although SACD seems to be pulling ahead), this format war could go on for years and wind up a niche market also.

pity...

[Smokey]

But, since SACD and DVD-Audio are still battling it out (although SACD seems to be pulling ahead), this format war could go on for years and wind up a niche market also.

pity...

I believe that also.

Unlike for DVD format (as it took off quickly) where people didn’t mind replacing their collection of VHS for new DVD format, the new hi def format might not benefit from such a luck due to consumers reluctance to replace their current DVD collection with high resolution version of it.

It seem new hi def format sales will mostly be riding on new titles that hit the market, and not necessary on titles that already exist on regular DVD. So it probably will be a very slow buildup for either format.

For example, I read somewhere that Blu-ray title ""Legends of the Fall" has apparently sold a single copy after a lonely nine months of retail avaiability.

[kexodusc]

I believe that also.

Unlike for DVD format (as it took off quickly) where people didn’t mind replacing their collection of VHS for new DVD format, the new hi def format might not benefit from such a luck due to consumers reluctance to replace their current DVD collection with high resolution version of it.


I don't recall DVD actually being all that quick in the early going...It was several years after I first met someone with a DVD player. In 1997 there were fewer than 400,000 players sold. I have no idea how many players have sold so far (though with PS3 it's way more than that). For year 1, these guys aren't doing too bad. Though they would seem to be progressing at a slower rate than DVD, even combined.

Also, 2007 was predicted by many analysts to be the first year of declining sales ever for DVD. Not a conclusive stat by itself if it turns out to be true (I wonder), but we're still very, very early in the HD life cycle. Things could heat up fast someday.

DVD may have caught on faster, but its eventual replacement doesn't have to do repeat that pace to still end up being the replacement.
Some interesting numbers -DVD's year by year sales in hardware and software up to 2005.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/072605.html

Also Smokey,a few neat things jumped out to me in your charts. 7 of the top 10 sellers are BluRay and Superman seems to be doing better on BluRay than HDDVD. Considering they were late to the party, that's impressive momentum.
It'll be interesting to see if BluRay can pull away from HD-DVD or vice-versa. I suspect once people are more comfortable in siding with the winner, sales will really progress.
DVD didn't really have as stiff a competitor in 1997-1998.

[PeruvianSkies]

I don't recall DVD actually being all that quick in the early going...It was several years after I first met someone with a DVD player. In 1997 there were fewer than 400,000 players sold. I have no idea how many players have sold so far (though with PS3 it's way more than that). For year 1, these guys aren't doing too bad. Though they would seem to be progressing at a slower rate than DVD, even combined.

Also, 2007 was predicted by many analysts to be the first year of declining sales ever for DVD. Not a conclusive stat by itself if it turns out to be true (I wonder), but we're still very, very early in the HD life cycle. Things could heat up fast someday.

DVD may have caught on faster, but its eventual replacement doesn't have to do repeat that pace to still end up being the replacement.
Some interesting numbers -DVD's year by year sales in hardware and software up to 2005.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/072605.html

Also Smokey,a few neat things jumped out to me in your charts. 7 of the top 10 sellers are BluRay and Superman seems to be doing better on BluRay than HDDVD. Considering they were late to the party, that's impressive momentum.
It'll be interesting to see if BluRay can pull away from HD-DVD or vice-versa. I suspect once people are more comfortable in siding with the winner, sales will really progress.
DVD didn't really have as stiff a competitor in 1997-1998.

Isn't it also interesting that the top sellers are action-esque movies. Some are Sci-fi or thrillers, but all of them are fairly action-oriented. I think that's key as well as people typcially want good sound and picture for action movies. It's not like most people sit there watching DIRTY DANCING HAVANA NIGHTS and comment about the pristine picture and superb surrounds.

[recoveryone]

From the list, the one thing that caught my eye was the Fifth Element, Now this goes back to my posting in another area (Mark, Skies go to your neutral corners) Here we see a film that has been out on just about every platform within the last 10 years. So again what is it to move avarage joe blow to spend his six pack cash on a movie he already has. And hopefully when someone come out with a full dual format player that is in reasonably cost range and is also backwards compatible then I really can see the formats moving forward. Its no fun having sofware that won't work on your hardware. lol that can be use on a date if your clever......lol

[PeruvianSkies]

From the list, the one thing that caught my eye was the Fifth Element, Now this goes back to my posting in another area (Mark, Skies go to your neutral corners) Here we see a film that has been out on just about every platform within the last 10 years. So again what is it to move avarage joe blow to spend his six pack cash on a movie he already has. And hopefully when someone come out with a full dual format player that is in reasonably cost range and is also backwards compatible then I really can see the formats moving forward. Its no fun having sofware that won't work on your hardware. lol that can be use on a date if your clever......lol

Ok, I'm in my corner, but can I at least say this...

THE FIFTH ELEMENT (I love this movie btw) was also one of the first SUPERBIT releases from ColumbiaTriStar and was always one of their top-sellers. Unfortunately they were unable to keep hot titles in the Superbit line to keep it moving. It was with CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON and BRAM STOKERS DRACULA as the initial 3 released.

[recoveryone]

I like the film also, but I could not see myself buying it again in Blu-ray/HD DVD, just MHO. But if I was to get it in a whole new type of sensory feeling (put me in the movie) hologram type setting. Then I'll buy that for a dollar!.......lol To me its like the game console systems they keep making the games so real like (GT4) but it will never be able to take the place of driving a real car. So you can give me all the enhanced graphics you want, but nothing can replace the feel of pressing the acclearator of a 500 hp machine and feeling the G forces against your body as you make that first turn. Just think how far we have come in HT that most of us don't even go to the theater any more due that most local places have inferior systems than what we have at home. And I'm sure its not for the over price popcorn and soda. I'm sure I too will jump on the HD DVD format one day, but then again I'm holding out until they pull my CRT WS TV and progressive scan DVD player from my glazed over eyse and cold hands, I still won't be dead thats just going to far...........................................lol

[PeruvianSkies]

I like the film also, but I could not see myself buying it again in Blu-ray/HD DVD, just MHO. But if I was to get it in a whole new type of sensory feeling (put me in the movie) hologram type setting. Then I'll buy that for a dollar!.......lol To me its like the game console systems they keep making the games so real like (GT4) but it will never be able to take the place of driving a real car. So you can give me all the enhanced graphics you want, but nothing can replace the feel of pressing the acclearator of a 500 hp machine and feeling the G forces against your body as you make that first turn. Just think how far we have come in HT that most of us don't even go to the theater any more due that most local places have inferior systems than what we have at home. And I'm sure its not for the over price popcorn and soda. I'm sure I too will jump on the HD DVD format one day, but then again I'm holding out until they pull my CRT WS TV and progressive scan DVD player from my glazed over eyse and cold hands, I still won't be dead thats just going to far...........................................lol

I noticed that 1. when I first purchased the Superbit edition of this film I thought it was the best thing on the market. It was stunning with great visuals and superb surround sound. 2. over time and especially on my most recent viewing a few months ago I noticed just how the standards of DVD finally surpassed this film. The blacks are a problem and the sound is (by more recent standards) not that showcase worthy.

I agree with you though, if you are not a huge fan, than who cares. I might opt to own this film again...just maybe. Can I come out of my corner yet?

[Groundbeef]

It seems that the other part of the world may not be so ready to accept Sony, and Blu-Ray.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5168&Itemid=2

So maybe things are not going to be settled as soon as we thought. Europe could emerge as a factor in choosing the next HD-Format.

[westcott]

I guess I am too frugle with my money. Even if I did own an HD DVD player or a BlueRay, I still would not buy any media for it, but rather, rent it.

Since there seems to be a high possibility that one or the other may fold, I would hate to invest all that money only to not be able to get an updated player further in the future that could play them.

[kexodusc]

It seems that the other part of the world may not be so ready to accept Sony, and Blu-Ray.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5168&Itemid=2

So maybe things are not going to be settled as soon as we thought. Europe could emerge as a factor in choosing the next HD-Format.

Europe's not the market that decides this unfortunately...and independant European studio's account for what? 0.000000001% of movie sales? The US studio's influence, if it remains behind BluRay to the extent it is, is just too big for independent studio's to overcome.

And I don't buy any anti-Sony sentiment at all...CD did just fine.

[markw]

From the list, the one thing that caught my eye was the Fifth Element, Now this goes back to my posting in another area (Mark, Skies go to your neutral corners) Here we see a film that has been out on just about every platform within the last 10 years. So again what is it to move avarage joe blow to spend his six pack cash on a movie he already has. And hopefully when someone come out with a full dual format player that is in reasonably cost range and is also backwards compatible then I really can see the formats moving forward. Its no fun having sofware that won't work on your hardware. lol that can be use on a date if your clever......lolIt's been a favorite of the audio/video freaks from day one as a demo. Even the standard DVD is a pleasure to watch and listen to!

It's got it all, bright colors, a great film quality, great sound, great acting, a well paced plot full of of action and humor and, who in their right mind can argue with Mila Jovovich running around in skimpies.

IOW, it's a standard like PF's DSOTM, which has been released on virtually every format to hit the market and, believe me, I've had all of 'em (except cassette and 8-track).

I don't think it's JoeSixpack's influence we're seeing here. These new formats are still the domain of the audio/video pioneers who fall under the name of "early adaptors" whose participation is critical to any new item. It's a known quantity by which to a) judge their system's performance and b) a great showpiece to use when showing off their new toys, not so much by Joe Sixpack. Most of these films tend to fall int othat category.

But, once all these early adaptors have purchased their hardware and software, it's up to Joe Sixpack and his buddies at Wal-Mart to take up the flag and carry these new formats over the top. And, Joe may be quite satisfied with his existing DVD copies and picking them up at low prices as opposed to the high prices asked for these new formats. Plus, he doesn't need to purchase new hardware that costs upwards of $400 or so when he can pick up a DVD player for 10% of that.

Soon it'll be in Joe's hands and only time will tell. SACD and DVD-Audio are still battling it out in the corner after all these years but redbook CD's are still the sales leader of the three.

We'll know a winner has been declared when the bestselling titles are from Pixar and Disney.

[kexodusc]

We'll know a winner has been declared when the bestselling titles are from Pixar and Disney.

One sign, for sure.

As DVD sales decline and HD sales increase, I can't help but think there'll be a strong desire by the studios to reduce the number of DVD releases for two reasons, margins are low on DVD, and self-interest in pushing the new formats to keep reselling the back catalog.

This could very well be a supply determined product.

I've said it many times, Sony will fight tooth and nail to the bitter end when it comes to format wars. Toshiba doesn't have the appetite, they're smart enough to realize they stand more to gain financially from hardware sales than license royalties. That said, never underestimate Sony's ability to screw up a great product.

I'm hoping universal players get cheap enough in a hurry. Kinda thought we'd see a few more at tempting prices by now.

[markw]

One sign, for sure.

As DVD sales decline and HD sales increase, I can't help but think there'll be a strong desire by the studios to reduce the number of DVD releases for two reasons, margins are low on DVD, and self-interest in pushing the new formats to keep reselling the back catalog.

This could very well be a supply determined product.

I've said it many times, Sony will fight tooth and nail to the bitter end when it comes to format wars. Toshiba doesn't have the appetite, they're smart enough to realize they stand more to gain financially from hardware sales than license royalties. That said, never underestimate Sony's ability to screw up a great product.

I'm hoping universal players get cheap enough in a hurry. Kinda thought we'd see a few more at tempting prices by now.Downloading movies. Just like with music, it's the wave of the future and, if music is any indication, overall quality of the product isn't the ultimate determining factor in a format's success or failure. Such being the case, both may wind up stillborn.

and, as for format wars, whahoppned to Beta? It's the movie studios and distribution arms that will determine the winner here, not the hardware manufacturers.

[kexodusc]

Downloading movies. Just like with music, it's the wave of the future and, if music is any indication, overall quality of the product isn't the ultimate determining factor in a format's success or failure. Such being the case, both may wind up stillborn.

Hmm, I don't see downloading threatening HD formats in the near future. DVD has increased sales every single year despite this threat. Unless there's some fantastic gains coming in download speed and bandwidth, this just won't have a big enough impact. I'm sure it'll hurt some, but I have little faith in people's willingness to download instead of purchase tangible formats. Unlike audio, where most people's systems don't really resolve the loss in sound quality in lossy compressed digital formats, people do have HDTV's, are more visually oriented and will notice substantial losses in the picture quality area. Think that'll keep people buying disc formats for several more years.


and, as for format wars, whahoppned to Beta? It's the movie studios and distribution arms that will determine the winner here, not the hardware manufacturers.
Beta was a little bit different in at least one regard. Today, one of the hardware manufacturers IS also a pretty important movie studio, and there's vested interests and investments from both studio's and hardware manufacturers in the each other's business. Hardware manufacturers back then were all new to the game (so were the studio's). I think everyone recognizes fully (or at least better) what's at stake this time.

[Groundbeef]

Hmm, I don't see downloading threatening HD formats in the near future. DVD has increased sales every single year despite this threat. Unless there's some fantastic gains coming in download speed and bandwidth, this just won't have a big enough impact. I'm sure it'll hurt some, but I have little faith in people's willingness to download instead of purchase tangible formats. .

Have you been following the XBOX 360 Marketplace? Currently after only 4 MONTHS of service with video downloads, they have launched to 2nd place only behind Itunes.

They are also currently #1 in HD d/l movies (indeed one of the few places you can d/l HD movies).

They are also signing up numbers of studios eager to grab a piece of the pie. HD movies rent for about $4.00 compared to $3.00 for SD.

I would have to directly disagree with your d/l vs buy. After being burned by $34/ Children of Men, I will be MORE likely to rent/ and then purchase. Rather than just buy.

Heres a link for you:
http://kotaku.com/gaming/xbox-360/microsoft-we-pwn-video-downloads-245602.php

[Smokey]

I agree with Kex that downloading HD movies (or SD movies for that mater) still have a long way to go to be a viable alternative to purchasing. Technical aspect of it alone make it less than attractive. It require whopping bandwidth .

For example, I have 1.5 Mb connection. and to down load a CD which have 700 Mb of data, it will tale more than three hours to down load it. Now with DVD having 4.5 gb of data, we are looking at over 17 hours downloading. And with 25 gb of HD discs, it will take over 4 days to download.

So unless everybody have 10 Mb Internet connection, downloading a movie is quite way off.

[markw]

All you need it a TV , a cable box, and the right service package. Although technically not "downloading", this has seriously cut down my visits to Blockbuster and movie purchases. Many movies I want to see once ot twice but don't feel the overwhelming need to posess for ever and ever (particularly after having seen them).

The selection varies month to month but they do offer a pretty wide selection of movuies if you have the premium channels,and many in HD as well. Many for free with the subscription, although the subscription can go up there if you're not careful.

[westcott]

All you need it a TV , a cable box, and the right service package. Although technically not "downloading", this has seriously cut down my visits to Blockbuster and movie purchases. Many movies I want to see once ot twice but don't feel the overwhelming need to posess for ever and ever (particularly after having seen them).

The selection varies month to month but they do offer a pretty wide selection of movuies if you have the premium channels,and many in HD as well. Many for free with the subscription, although the subscription can go up there if you're not careful.

These downloads are nowhere near HD quality.

May be fine for those with small displays or less discerning tastes, but like others have said, true HD downloads are a long way away due to bandwidth limitations.

[PeruvianSkies]

These downloads are nowhere near HD quality.

May be fine for those with small displays or less discerning tastes, but like others have said, true HD downloads are a long way away due to bandwidth limitations.

I'm with Westcott on this one.

[GMichael]

These downloads are nowhere near HD quality.

May be fine for those with small displays or less discerning tastes, but like others have said, true HD downloads are a long way away due to bandwidth limitations.

True, but they are usually a bit better than std DVD's. Some are better than others. The "Planet Earth" series on Discovery has very good quality, compressed or not. Sports are not so bad even though they are in 720p most of the time. It will work for me, for now.
Come on Blu-Ray. Or come on HD-DVD. Someone, finish up.

[Groundbeef]

These downloads are nowhere near HD quality.

May be fine for those with small displays or less discerning tastes, but like others have said, true HD downloads are a long way away due to bandwidth limitations.

Oh? I beg to differ. On the 360 the average HD movie takes a little over 4 hours to d/l on cable connection, and the size is a bit over 4gb. Considering there are no "extras", just the movie the quality is outstanding. Bit for Bit it is more compressed than an HD Disc, but the quality is outstanding.

It is hands down better than a comparable DVD movie. But the SD d/l movie files are around 2 GB, and quality is that of watching the physical DVD playback.

Apple quality pales in comparison to the 360 D/L service as their videos are optimized for ipod playback, whereas MS optimizes playback for HD monitors/TV's.

[westcott]

True, but they are usually a bit better than std DVD's. Some are better than others. The "Planet Earth" series on Discovery has very good quality, compressed or not. Sports are not so bad even though they are in 720p most of the time. It will work for me, for now.
Come on Blu-Ray. Or come on HD-DVD. Someone, finish up.

I think this is a good opportunity to clarify the differences between film and video. The examples you give are video. Video is shot in 30fps or 60fps (some sports events even higher for slow motion playback). Film, on the other hand, is typically 24fps. This is where deinterlacing comes in and where most of the conversion to a video format makes or breaks a films original look. A quality DVD player can make all the difference for film material. Video, on the other hand has the advantage of not going through any conversions, other than possibly scaling. Also, most video shot today is using a HD camera to begin with and is not on film media at all so it does not have to undergo the film conversion. HD cameras also operate in an entirely different manner than film cameras. Their are also artisitic differences that still make it a prefered recording method, even today with HD camers readily available. Film makers are still learning how to shoot with video and it will take some time before we see a lot of content shot in video to begin with.

Old habits are hard to break, whether they be audio or video and only time will tell what media will be the dominating format.

[GMichael]

I think this is a good opportunity to clarify the differences between film and video. The examples you give are video. Video is shot in 30fps or 60fps (some sports events even higher for slow motion playback). Film, on the other hand, is typically 24fps. This is where deinterlacing comes in and where most of the conversion to a video format makes or breaks a films original look. A quality DVD player can make all the difference for film material. Video, on the other hand has the advantage of not going through any conversions, other than possibly scaling. Also, most video shot today is using a HD camera to begin with and is not on film media at all so it does not have to undergo the film conversion. HD cameras also operate in an entirely different manner than film cameras. Their are also artisitic differences that still make it a prefered recording method, even today with HD camers readily available. Film makers are still learning how to shoot with video and it will take some time before we see a lot of content shot in video to begin with.

Old habits are hard to break, whether they be audio or video and only time will tell what media will be the dominating format.

Good points. When I do watch a film on HD-HBO or HD-"pick another" it is not of the same quality as the video I see on Discovery. They are still a bit better than a std DVD, but the difference is not nearly as dramatic.

[westcott]

Oh? I beg to differ. On the 360 the average HD movie takes a little over 4 hours to d/l on cable connection, and the size is a bit over 4gb. Considering there are no "extras", just the movie the quality is outstanding. Bit for Bit it is more compressed than an HD Disc, but the quality is outstanding.

It is hands down better than a comparable DVD movie. But the SD d/l movie files are around 2 GB, and quality is that of watching the physical DVD playback.

Apple quality pales in comparison to the 360 D/L service as their videos are optimized for ipod playback, whereas MS optimizes playback for HD monitors/TV's.

Considering that an HD DVD movie can be 20 to 25gb, 4gb is still a far cry from true HD.

Maybe I am being too picky but I see the HD logo used way too often for displays and content that is not true HD. Most of us here are well versed on this but for those who may be lurking and are unaware, I think this should be a fair caution to keep your eyes peeled and be skeptical of wild marketing claims.

360 is actually ahead of the curve from what you have told me. Many of the other download services I have read about are nowhere near this quality.

[kexodusc]

Have you been following the XBOX 360 Marketplace? Currently after only 4 MONTHS of service with video downloads, they have launched to 2nd place only behind Itunes.

They are also currently #1 in HD d/l movies (indeed one of the few places you can d/l HD movies).

They are also signing up numbers of studios eager to grab a piece of the pie. HD movies rent for about $4.00 compared to $3.00 for SD.

I would have to directly disagree with your d/l vs buy. After being burned by $34/ Children of Men, I will be MORE likely to rent/ and then purchase. Rather than just buy.

Heres a link for you:
http://kotaku.com/gaming/xbox-360/microsoft-we-pwn-video-downloads-245602.php
I'm well aware of itunes and 360's success.
That's fine and dandy. But there's also the very real fact that DVD and CD sales continue to stay incredibly strong despite legit and illegal downloading practices. There are no studies that verify downloading is stealing sales from buying hard discs, it's difficult to measure and prove, and though we all intuitively can say it's hurting a bit, the impact is certainly not industry threatening... The new line of thinking is that this is a parallel market. We know a large portion of the sales is done by impulse or for convenience, and represent purchases the buyer would otherwise not have made. Ie, it's not "stealing" from the hard disc format in most cases. I'm sure there's some loss of sales, but it's fairly minimal. There will continue to be a huge market for a tangible disc formats for quite some number of years. I'm guessing HD-DVD/BluRay survive, dont' do as well as DVD, and then maybe in 10 years or so downloading is in a position to overtake it.
Then again, it may never happen. People like owning things they can touch.

What we see here is a few users with high frequency of purchase, vs a larger number of users who purchase less frequently. I have little doubt we'll move to a d/l based system eventually, just think we're at least 1 generation away from it being at least 50% of hard disc sales.

There cable companies are having a hard time figuring out how they'll be able to deliver capable bandwidth IF movie downloading ever takes off. Right now it's still just an opportunity being explored and experimented with. We're still a ways away from that yet.

[Groundbeef]

I'm well aware of itunes and 360's success.
That's fine and dandy. But there's also the very real fact that DVD and CD sales continue to stay incredibly strong despite legit and illegal downloading practices. There are no studies that verify downloading is stealing sales from buying hard discs, it's difficult to measure and prove, and though we all intuitively can say it's hurting a bit, the impact is certainly not industry threatening... The new line of thinking is that this is a parallel market. We know a large portion of the sales is done by impulse or for convenience, and represent purchases the buyer would otherwise not have made. Ie, it's not "stealing" from the hard disc format in most cases. I'm sure there's some loss of sales, but it's fairly minimal. There will continue to be a huge market for a tangible disc formats for quite some number of years. I'm guessing HD-DVD/BluRay survive, dont' do as well as DVD, and then maybe in 10 years or so downloading is in a position to overtake it.
Then again, it may never happen. People like owning things they can touch.

What we see here is a few users with high frequency of purchase, vs a larger number of users who purchase less frequently. I have little doubt we'll move to a d/l based system eventually, just think we're at least 1 generation away from it being at least 50% of hard disc sales.

There cable companies are having a hard time figuring out how they'll be able to deliver capable bandwidth IF movie downloading ever takes off. Right now it's still just an opportunity being explored and experimented with. We're still a ways away from that yet.

I think the difference is twofold
1. When you d/l a movie for the 360 it is a RENTAL. You have 14 days to watch, and only a 24 hour window whe you start the initial viewing. So, for $4.00 its not a bad way to decide if the HD movie you are contemplating buying for $34.00 is really worth it. Would have paid off for me a couple of times.

2. With the 360, the d/l is directly to your HD TV. No messing with having to stream from your PC to your TV, or other convoluted methods. Plus, you don't have to worry about returning the film when finished. It just doesn't play anymore. Just delete of HD, and its gone.

Unfortunatly I have become used to paying $15 for a new release DVD. The cost of a new HD-DVD ($34.00) will actually make me more discriminating, and the D/L service will definatly help me seperate the wheat from the chaff as they say.

[Duds]

cd sales continue to stay incredibly strong? WRONG!!! cd sales are dropping at an alarming rate. I'm not saying its all due to downloading, that certainly has a lot to do with it, but to say that cd sales are stayign incredibly strong is just flat out wrong. i work for a large music and dvd retailer, and thats definitely not the case.

Also, as far as downloading movies, i dont think people will really care that they arent HD quality. Do the majority of music downloaders care about the sound quality? i would guess no. As long as the downloaded movie is normal quality or close to normal, i dont thinik people will give a damn.


I'm well aware of itunes and 360's success.
That's fine and dandy. But there's also the very real fact that DVD and CD sales continue to stay incredibly strong despite legit and illegal downloading practices. There are no studies that verify downloading is stealing sales from buying hard discs, it's difficult to measure and prove, and though we all intuitively can say it's hurting a bit, the impact is certainly not industry threatening... The new line of thinking is that this is a parallel market. We know a large portion of the sales is done by impulse or for convenience, and represent purchases the buyer would otherwise not have made. Ie, it's not "stealing" from the hard disc format in most cases. I'm sure there's some loss of sales, but it's fairly minimal. There will continue to be a huge market for a tangible disc formats for quite some number of years. I'm guessing HD-DVD/BluRay survive, dont' do as well as DVD, and then maybe in 10 years or so downloading is in a position to overtake it.
Then again, it may never happen. People like owning things they can touch.

What we see here is a few users with high frequency of purchase, vs a larger number of users who purchase less frequently. I have little doubt we'll move to a d/l based system eventually, just think we're at least 1 generation away from it being at least 50% of hard disc sales.

There cable companies are having a hard time figuring out how they'll be able to deliver capable bandwidth IF movie downloading ever takes off. Right now it's still just an opportunity being explored and experimented with. We're still a ways away from that yet.

[kexodusc]

I think the difference is twofold
1. When you d/l a movie for the 360 it is a RENTAL. You have 14 days to watch, and only a 24 hour window whe you start the initial viewing. So, for $4.00 its not a bad way to decide if the HD movie you are contemplating buying for $34.00 is really worth it. Would have paid off for me a couple of times.

2. With the 360, the d/l is directly to your HD TV. No messing with having to stream from your PC to your TV, or other convoluted methods. Plus, you don't have to worry about returning the film when finished. It just doesn't play anymore. Just delete of HD, and its gone.

Unfortunatly I have become used to paying $15 for a new release DVD. The cost of a new HD-DVD ($34.00) will actually make me more discriminating, and the D/L service will definatly help me seperate the wheat from the chaff as they say.
Could be me, but I see the Rental aspect affecting Blockbuster more than HD-DVD or BluRay sales. Even any reduction in blockbuster copies wouldn't really impact overall sales much. And I expect they'd order the same volume, just see the frequency of rentals decrease somewhat. I order flicks from my on-demand cable provider all the time for a bit cheaper than Blockbuster - and I still rent films too. I'm more discriminating in both purchases AND rentals. I see the ones I'm excited for in theater - if they're good I may buy them. If not, I won't pay to rent them again. The ones I miss, a few I'll rent, most I'll wait to hit the Movie channels, on-demand or otherwise, that I pay a flat rate for. I usually try to buy only discs I know I will want to watch many times.

I'm all for downloading rentals, though in my experience, HD or SD, the disc format is still preferable, for audio and video quality, though I recognize most people probably don't care as much as me. Maybe we'll see a 3 way battle emerge between HD-DVD, BluRay and downloading.

It is a real possibility, I'll concede, that if HD-DVD and BluRay don't resolve their conflict soon, that in a few years many people might just decide to not get any HD player and use these kinds of services. I'm still not sure that addresses the desire people have to own movies in their personal library. Time will tell.

[Groundbeef]

Could be me, but I see the Rental aspect affecting Blockbuster more than HD-DVD or BluRay sales. Even any reduction in blockbuster copies wouldn't really impact overall sales much. And I expect they'd order the same volume, just see the frequency of rentals decrease somewhat. I order flicks from my on-demand cable provider all the time for a bit cheaper than Blockbuster - and I still rent films too. I'm more discriminating in both purchases AND rentals. I see the ones I'm excited for in theater - if they're good I may buy them. If not, I won't pay to rent them again. The ones I miss, a few I'll rent, most I'll wait to hit the Movie channels, on-demand or otherwise, that I pay a flat rate for. I usually try to buy only discs I know I will want to watch many times.

I'm all for downloading rentals, though in my experience, HD or SD, the disc format is still preferable, for audio and video quality, though I recognize most people probably don't care as much as me. Maybe we'll see a 3 way battle emerge between HD-DVD, BluRay and downloading.

It is a real possibility, I'll concede, that if HD-DVD and BluRay don't resolve their conflict soon, that in a few years many people might just decide to not get any HD player and use these kinds of services. I'm still not sure that addresses the desire people have to own movies in their personal library. Time will tell.

I don't see d/l overcoming buying them for your library anytime soon either. However, services such as the 360 marketplace sure do make it easy to rent HD movies. The problem is that movie places around me don't have a HD rental section. So, I would prefer to watch them first before purchase. Children of Men is still chapping my ass. Thats $34 not well spent.

[kexodusc]

I don't see d/l overcoming buying them for your library anytime soon either. However, services such as the 360 marketplace sure do make it easy to rent HD movies. The problem is that movie places around me don't have a HD rental section. So, I would prefer to watch them first before purchase. Children of Men is still chapping my ass. Thats $34 not well spent.
Ha ha...Nobody told ya to look before you leap? I actually enjoyed the movie, not enough to buy it though. But that's a different thread.

I'm starting to warm up to the idea that these will remain a niche market product. Maybe the margins are high enough that it's in everyone's best interest to keep them as niche products? The way DVD hardware and software prices dropped so fast, I'm sure a lot of companies learned their lessons and aren't so eager to shoot themselves in the foot again. Though I wonder how long until the first Apex HD-DVD player hits the market?

[PeruvianSkies]

Ok, here are my top 5 movies that I am eager to see on the HD formats...

http://images.art.com/images/-/Peter-OToole---Lawrence-of-Arabia--C10103933.jpeg

LAWRENCE OF ARABIA I've seen this projected and restored in 70mm and the Superbit DVD is pretty good, but still lacking in some of the detail and depth. This would be a key HD title!!!

http://www.cyberpunkreview.com/images/Bladerunner02.jpg

BLADE RUNNER Besides obvious reasons this is a film that is in desperate need of some restoration and color-correction. The HD would be staggering!!!

http://www.starshipmodeler.com/2001/sut4_jp.jpg

2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY Probably my all time favorite film and a visually stunning 70mm film that would look so dang good with a great restoration and true HD picture!

http://www.bfi.org.uk/features/westerns-gall/images/420/good-bad-ugly.jpg

THE GOOD, THE BAD, and the UGLY A film definitely in need of some good restoration and HD transfer. The various released on DVD still had tons of issues and this film is s

http://www.filmmonthly.com/Noir/Articles/Thirdman/TheThirdMan.jpg

THE THIRD MAN One of my all-time favorite b&w films and the Criterion DVD is now dated quite a bit, although relatively clean transfer, but still needs some work and HD could really bring out the detail of this classic!

[L.J.]

The problem is that movie places around me don't have a HD rental section. So, I would prefer to watch them first before purchase. Children of Men is still chapping my ass. Thats $34 not well spent.

I don't know whats available on xbox but why not give Netflix a try. That's what I've been using.

[westcott]

Ok, here are my top 5 movies that I am eager to see on the HD formats...

http://images.art.com/images/-/Peter-OToole---Lawrence-of-Arabia--C10103933.jpeg

LAWRENCE OF ARABIA I've seen this projected and restored in 70mm and the Superbit DVD is pretty good, but still lacking in some of the detail and depth. This would be a key HD title!!!

http://www.cyberpunkreview.com/images/Bladerunner02.jpg

BLADE RUNNER Besides obvious reasons this is a film that is in desperate need of some restoration and color-correction. The HD would be staggering!!!

http://www.starshipmodeler.com/2001/sut4_jp.jpg

2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY Probably my all time favorite film and a visually stunning 70mm film that would look so dang good with a great restoration and true HD picture!

http://www.bfi.org.uk/features/westerns-gall/images/420/good-bad-ugly.jpg

THE GOOD, THE BAD, and the UGLY A film definitely in need of some good restoration and HD transfer. The various released on DVD still had tons of issues and this film is s

http://www.filmmonthly.com/Noir/Articles/Thirdman/TheThirdMan.jpg

THE THIRD MAN One of my all-time favorite b&w films and the Criterion DVD is now dated quite a bit, although relatively clean transfer, but still needs some work and HD could really bring out the detail of this classic!

Blade Runner is one of my all time sci fi favorites and the difference between DVD and HD via satellite is truly astounding. The kitchen scene is a great example. On the DVD, you can not even tell he is in a kitchen, on HD, it is a whole new ballgame.

I have Lawrence of Arabia on superbit and it too is very impressive. Would love to see it in HD.

You and I seem to have similar tastes. Nice top five!

I would have to replace Clint Eastwood with Ben Hur though!

[Dusty Chalk]

Good call on 2001 and Blade Runner (but they should add the cinematic release -- a Criterion boxset like Brazil would not be sneered at -- in fact, it would probably be insta-purchased by me), two of my top-10 films of all time. I would add:

Koyaanisqatsi
Pink Floyd's The Wall
Ghost in the Shell
Akira
Spirited Away
Princess Mononoke
Sin City
Mirrormask
Dark Crystal
Labyrinth

Here's to hoping that 300 will go straight to hi-def (and considering many eye-candy type movies like Aeon Flux and Ultraviolet go straight to hi-def, this is not really that much of a gamble)

[PeruvianSkies]

Good call on 2001 and Blade Runner (but they should add the cinematic release -- a Criterion boxset like Brazil would not be sneered at -- in fact, it would probably be insta-purchased by me), two of my top-10 films of all time. I would add:

Koyaanisqatsi DEFINITELY! THIS NEEDS A NEW TRANSFER AS THE DVD FROM MGM IS LAME-O! I USED TO HAVE THE 12" LASERDISC TOO.

Pink Floyd's The Wall ALSO IN NEED OF RESTORATION AND A DTS AUDIO MIX.

Ghost in the Shell

Akira A FILM THAT WAS MEANT TO BE BIG-SCREEN FOR SURE AND THE PIONEER DVD HAS A GREAT DTS MIX, I'D LOVE TO HEAR THIS IN DTS-HD AND WITH A NEW HD TRANSFER!!!

Spirited Away
Princess Mononoke

Sin City COULD CERTAINLY BENEFIT FROM AN HD TRANSFER!

Mirrormask
Dark Crystal THE SUPERBIT DVD WAS PRETTY LACKLUSTER.
Labyrinth ALSO A LACKLUSTER SUPERBIT. BOTH OF THESE FILMS NEED HD TRANSFERS AND DTS FULLBIT!

Here's to hoping that 300 will go straight to hi-def (and considering many eye-candy type movies like Aeon Flux and Ultraviolet go straight to hi-def, this is not really that much of a gamble)

GOOD CHOICES!!

[nightflier]

Back to the download question, the other bottleneck that no one is talking about is hard drive capacity. With your average console/Tivo/PVR coming in at 80Gb, that's hardly enough for 25Gb HD downloads. Since there are 750Gb internal drives drives available everywhere, there's no reason why manufacturers are keeping the drives so small (unless, for those conspiracy-focussed readers, they have a reason to).

I see HD capacity growing very fast once 3D/holographic recording methods become more mainstream. At that point, it will be possible for people to have 2-3 terabyte drives and this won't be an issue anymore. I give it two years, tops. Of course, that's plenty of time for HD-DVD and BluRay to fight it out and declare a winner.

Another factor is download speeds. Most downloads today are files that are compressed for viewing - i.e. they are not decompressed after download. If on the other hand, files where ultra-compressed and then decompressed after download (this can easily be accomplished inside the component w/o any user interaction), then we could see a much greater compression ratio; my guess, as much as 50%. This would make that 25Gb file about 12Gb.

P.S. Westcot, great list. Nice to see Clint, too - not many people would put a Western in their top 5.

[PeruvianSkies]

P.S. Westcot, great list. Nice to see Clint, too - not many people would put a Western in their top 5.


That was my list, but Westcott responded to it.

[Woochifer]

These numbers are definitely the most comprehensively documented set that have been released yet. These are the numbers that all of the studios subscribe to, but thus far Sony's the only studio that has released the full dossier with the raw Videoscan numbers. Obviously, Sony timed the release of this report to coincide with the first week of data for Casino Royale, which had the biggest first week sales for either HD disc format, as expected. It will be interesting to see whether HD-DVD narrows that 4-1 sales gap with Universal's HD-DVD releases of Children of Men and The Good Shepherd, or if Blu-ray maintains its week-to-week market share.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/files/sonyhdreport031807.zip

The primary limitation is that the raw numbers only document the retailers that are tied into Videoscan's point-of-sale tracking system. My understanding is that this accounts for 40-60% of the home video market, and does not include mass merchandisers such as Wal-Mart and Target, along with some online retailers (Amazon and DVD Empire I believe are included).

But, as far as tracking the rank order, and the Blu-ray/HD-DVD market share, this is by far the best data source out there. The report itself is interesting because it now provides a new benchmark for the various consolidated estimates out there.

[westcott]

That was my list, but Westcott responded to it.

Can I get partial credit since I mostly agreed with you? I would totally agree with you if we expanded the list to 6 and added Ben Hur.

Is it too late to edit?

I'll be your best friend!!!!!:idea:

[PeruvianSkies]

Can I get partial credit since I mostly agreed with you? I would totally agree with you if we expanded the list to 6 and added Ben Hur.

Is it too late to edit?

I'll be your best friend!!!!!:idea:

Yes, and BEN HUR would be another great title, especially if they do a 2.76X1 transfer of the film.

[Groundbeef]

I don't know whats available on xbox but why not give Netflix a try. That's what I've been using.

I have Netflix. I live in IL, and I have yet to get an HD-DVD. I request them usually about 2 months before release, but they just don't have enough copies.

[hermanv]

Once upon a time I lived in the LA basin. I was lucky enough in 1968 to see 2001a Space Odysey at Grauman's Chinese Theater in Cinerama (Super Panavision 70mm projectors with a 145 degree surround screen). I'm not that sure about the 145 degrees, but the screen was wide enough that you couldn't see both edges without moving your head. This was also one of the earlier films to use multi channel surround sound.

Anyway,Wow and Wow again, pinned to the seat by the photography. I love home theater, but nothing I've seen can touch the visual drama of that presentation.

Thanks for reminding me.

[PeruvianSkies]

Once upon a time I lived in the LA basin. I was lucky enough in 1968 to see 2001a Space Odysey at Grauman's Chinese Theater in Cinerama (Super Panavision 70mm projectors with a 145 degree surround screen). I'm not that sure about the 145 degrees, but the screen was wide enough that you couldn't see both edges without moving your head. This was also one of the earlier films to use multi channel surround sound.

Anyway,Wow and Wow again, pinned to the seat by the photography. I love home theater, but nothing I've seen can touch the visual drama of that presentation.

Thanks for reminding me.

I envy you! That would have been amazing! Not only a great way to see any film, but especially one of the greatest achievements in motion picture history. A true masterwork of visual spendor and effects and the primary influence on generations of Sci-fi and special effects films. Clearly a prime example of the phrase: They don't make em' like they used to. Not only that, but they don't put them on display in full glory like this either!

I am sure your experience must have been 3-D like and that you felt like you were part OF the film, not just observing it.

[hermanv]

2001 was the only one I saw at Grauman's, I also went to the Cinerama dome on Sunset Blvd. Actually a small venue, sort of intemate. The best I can remember is:

2001
Grand Prix
Ice Staion Zebra
and Bullet (I think).

There may have been a couple more, obviously not memorable. I've seen one Imax film, but they were so enchanted with trying to make you dizzy or frightened that the concept of movie was lost. Perhaps other Imax films are or will be better.

I have yet to see an all digital movie in a theater, from what I read it doesn't seem like there are enough pixels for a screen that big.

I am looking forward to Hi Def DVD as soon as player prices for the dual format players drop or there is a clear winner in the format war.

[L.J.]

I have Netflix. I live in IL, and I have yet to get an HD-DVD. I request them usually about 2 months before release, but they just don't have enough copies.

That's strange, I've had no problems. Most Blu-ray (even new releases) are readily available. I have about 40 sitting in my queue ready to go.

Hmmm.....perhaps Blu-ray is so popular they keep a greater supply on hand :ciappa:

[hermanv]

Hmmm.....perhaps Blu-ray is so popular they keep a greater supply on hand :ciappa: Maybe it's the other way around, HD is so popular they can't keep them in stock.

Woodchifer? Your turn.:ihih: