Blu-ray Weekly Sales Lead Widens to 4-to-1 (Week of 3/11)

[Woochifer]

The guys over at the AVS Forum and other boards like High Def Digest have been pulling together sales data from Nielson Videoscan and other sources to try and come up with a consolidated estimate for weekly Blu-ray and HD-DVD sales.

Since the start of the year, Blu-ray has maintained a rough 2-to-1 sales advantage over HD-DVD. As mentioned on other threads, Blu-ray has built this advantage because of its larger studio support and installed user base.

For the week of 3/11, Blu-ray outsold HD-DVD by a margin of 4-to-1. This is interesting because neither format had any new titles that week, and while the estimated unit sales represented a major dropoff from the week before, it seems that HD-DVD had a much sharper sales decline. Keep in mind that this trend occurred before the release of Casino Royale, which is a Blu-ray exclusive and the biggest concurrent new release for either HD disc format since the November release of Superman Returns. Given that the Blu-ray version of Casino Royale peaked at #8 on Amazon's sales chart (1st HD title to break into the top 10), and HD-DVD won't see any new releases until March 27th, I would expect this gap to widen considerably over the next couple of weeks.

Last week's sales data will be available by next Monday, so it will be interesting to see how wide a margin Blu-ray builds up before HD-DVD gets back into the game with new releases of its own starting on March 27.

http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o242/HarakoMeshi/nielsen_latest.png

[westcott]

I would be more interested in seeing a graph of rentals.

HD material purchases really give no indication of the total picture.

For example, I do not buy DVDs, I rent them and I am sure there are a lot of people who are doing the same thing for HD disks.

If you ask me, why buy them when there is no guarantee that the format will not win. I am sure that there are a lot of astute buyers who feel the same way and if I had to guess, represent the majority of the users of either format, therefore giving a better picture of what technology has the publics attention.

[kexodusc]

I would be more interested in seeing a graph of rentals.

HD material purchases really give no indication of the total picture.

For example, I do not buy DVDs, I rent them and I am sure there are a lot of people who are doing the same thing for HD disks.

If you ask me, why buy them when there is no guarantee that the format will not win. I am sure that there are a lot of astute buyers who feel the same way and if I had to guess, represent the majority of the users of either format, therefore giving a better picture of what technology has the publics attention.

I think DVD sales include the copies purchased by Blockbuster and rental chains, dont' they? While not necessarily representative of rental activity - it's reasonable to think if there's a 2:1 presence in store, then there's more of one being rented. Shelf space is managed on a weekly basis there - titles carried and dropped according to demand.

Also, for the first few years, rental activity is a very poor indicator, as most chains are late to the party - how many years until Blockbuster carried adequate DVD's after DVD players were available? Later on, once the formats start bumping DVD off the shelf (if that happens), it'll be a very relevant number to follow.

Hmmm, certainly interesting stuff. Looks as though BluRay is continuing it's momentum.
What about hardware sales figures? Anything going on there?

[GMichael]

Interesting to see both of them dropping so sharply.

[Woochifer]

I would be more interested in seeing a graph of rentals.

HD material purchases really give no indication of the total picture.

For example, I do not buy DVDs, I rent them and I am sure there are a lot of people who are doing the same thing for HD disks.

If you ask me, why buy them when there is no guarantee that the format will not win. I am sure that there are a lot of astute buyers who feel the same way and if I had to guess, represent the majority of the users of either format, therefore giving a better picture of what technology has the publics attention.

Yup, I'm curious as to the rental data as well, but thus far, nothing has been published as far as I know. Nightflier brought up this point as well, but I don't see how the rental picture would be any different from the sell-through market given that Blu-ray's studio support and installed user base advantages would still apply with the rental market.

Plus, in general the rental market is typically more driven by new releases of recent movies. And in respect to the top box office performers, Blu-ray has a huge advantage there as well because of its exclusive hold on the output from Fox, Sony, and Disney studios.


I think DVD sales include the copies purchased by Blockbuster and rental chains, dont' they? While not necessarily representative of rental activity - it's reasonable to think if there's a 2:1 presence in store, then there's more of one being rented. Shelf space is managed on a weekly basis there - titles carried and dropped according to demand.

No, the Nielson Videoscan data only tracks what gets sold at the point-of-sale (other sources track wholesale shipments, but obviously sales transactions are a more accurate indicator). I believe that new discs sold at Blockbuster and/or Hollywood are included in the Videoscan data, but not the rentals.


Also, for the first few years, rental activity is a very poor indicator, as most chains are late to the party - how many years until Blockbuster carried adequate DVD's after DVD players were available? Later on, once the formats start bumping DVD off the shelf (if that happens), it'll be a very relevant number to follow.

And it took them even longer to get on the widescreen bandwagon! I think that other than children's titles, rental activity for new releases of recent movies tends to track closely with sales (children's titles are more popular for sell-through, given that kids like to watch their favorite videos over and over and over ...). With DVD, releases for older movies tend to rank higher on sales charts than rentals. There was a lot more deviation between sales and rentals when VHS had that two-tiered "rental pricing" setup where most new releases would carry a $90 list price, and then get re-released a few months later at a $20 list price.


Hmmm, certainly interesting stuff. Looks as though BluRay is continuing it's momentum. What about hardware sales figures? Anything going on there?

Those NPD Group sales figures for the standalone players I believe are updated quarterly. The sales total for last year showed the standalone player sales virtually even, which was somewhat surprising given that the HD-DVD players came out first and carried a lower price than the Blu-ray players. Then again, Toshiba had to carry the marketing load for HD-DVD by itself (with Circuit City not even stocking HD-DVD until recently), while Blu-ray had Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, and Samsung each occupying shelf space and doing their own independent marketing.

The PS3 thus far has carried the day for Blu-ray, but I saw some figures on another site that showed the PS3 console sales down sharply for the month of February. I also read that the Wii outsold the Xbox 360 and PS3 combined, and the Xbox 360 had a nearly 2-to-1 sales advantage over the PS3. But, with Blu-ray player prices projected to fall below $400 before year's end (some analysts think it will come down to $300) and the studio support standing firm for now, I'm not so sure that the Blu-ray format will need to ride with the PS3 for much longer to survive, especially since it does not look like Microsoft will integrate the HD-DVD drive into the Xbox 360 for the foreseeable future.


Interesting to see both of them dropping so sharply.

Indeed. That particular week was an aberation because no new releases came out for either format. If anything, it demonstrates just how much of the sales get generated during the first week of release. HD-DVD in particular has had a tough month and a much sharper week-to-week decline because its release schedule shows three straight weeks with nothing new coming out.

[GMichael]

Indeed. That particular week was an aberation because no new releases came out for either format. If anything, it demonstrates just how much of the sales get generated during the first week of release. HD-DVD in particular has had a tough month and a much sharper week-to-week decline because its release schedule shows three straight weeks with nothing new coming out.

I'm sure that you already posted it somewhere else but, could you give us the link to that graph so we can tack this ourselves?

Thanks

[Woochifer]

I'm sure that you already posted it somewhere else but, could you give us the link to that graph so we can tack this ourselves?

Thanks

Here's the link (the image itself is also linked to the originating site)

http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o242/HarakoMeshi/nielsen_latest.png

I believe that this gets updated every week, so it will change. Somewhere on the AVS Forum the spreadsheet that has all of the base data is also posted.