Blu-ray Already Declaring Victory [Archive]

Woochifer

02-01-2007, 04:01 PM

Kind of building on the discussion already in progress on the Home Theater board (http://forums.audioreview.com/showthread.php?t=21453).

One of the more prominent and boastful pronouncements coming out of CES a few weeks ago was the Blu-Ray Association's declaration of victory over HD-DVD. At the time I thought it was ridiculous and very premature to announce something like that before the HD disc formats have even had two product cycles. Plus, that kind of arrogance could backfire really badly if projections don't pan out.

But, it turns out that the Blu-ray group's statements might simply reflect how the market dynamics have actually shaped up -- with all signs pointing towards Blu-ray. The Digital Bits and Home Media Retailing are reporting that the sales figures now put Blu-ray solidly in the lead; and with all of the major studios except Universal supporting Blu-ray, the format will likely widen this lead.

As problematic as the PS3 launch has been, it has helped swing the market momentum decidedly in Blu-ray's favor. Worldwide shipments for the PS3 have already eclipsed Toshiba's HD-DVD player shipments by more than 10-to-1 (this does not include sales for other Blu-ray players or the HD-DVD Xbox360 add-on), and more than 70% of surveyed PS3 buyers intend to buy Blu-ray discs.

By December, Blu-ray disc sales had passed HD-DVD. By January 7, Blu-ray discs were outselling HD-DVDs by 2-to-1. By January 14, the sales disparity was approaching 3-to-1.

Home Media Retailing interviewed a market analyst who indicated that he would be very surprised if this format war is not over by mid-2008. His reasoning is that by that time market penetration for HD disc players might be 5-6%, but 80% of those players will be Blu-ray because of the PS3.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10208

# HM: So it could be an all Blu-ray high-def market in just a couple of years?

# Bottoms: I would be absolutely amazed if the format war goes on much further than mid-2008. If you look at what happened in 2006, 80% of what has sold through is Blu-ray. In 2007, [Blu-ray] will be at least that percentage again, but it won’t be a million players we’re talking about. We’re probably looking at something like 8 million units selling through this year across all product types and formats, so by the end of 2007, moving into 2008, it’s possible that 5% or 6% of U.S. homes will be owning a high-definition playback device. And about 80% of those devices will be Blu-ray.

I also think that the Blu-ray's more extensive studio support will increasingly become an issue. The Blu-Ray Association has pointed out that among last year's top 20 DVD titles, 19 of them are already out or will soon come out on Blu-ray and 16 of these titles are exclusive to Blu-ray. In contrast, 4 of last year's top 20 DVD titles are out or will come out on HD-DVD, and only 1 of these titles is exclusive to HD-DVD. The Digital Bits has looked over the 2007 release schedule, and so far Blu-ray's announced titles far outpace what HD-DVD has.

Some HD-DVD enthusiasts had hoped that one of the studios exclusively in the Blu-ray camp would announce at CES that they would start releasing titles in both formats, but that announcement never came. And in fact, a representative from Fox indicated at CES that in their view, the format war was "in its final phases." Not exactly a sign that Fox will start issuing HD-DVDs anytime soon.

Warner has tried to straddle both camps with simultaneous releases in both formats and its recently announced Total HD dual-format disc. While that might succeed in propping HD-DVD up for the time being, I think Toshiba's end game with HD-DVD was never about winning outright over Blu-ray, but in extending the DVD format where Toshiba and Warner hold the patents. All they have to do is create enough uncertainty in the market to force a compromise of some sort, whether it's a dual-format disc or a dual-format player. The Home Media Retailing article seems to indicate as much.

# HM: Does that mean that both formats could possibly exist simultaneously for some years to come if HD DVD companies dig in their heels?

# Bottoms: We believe by the end of the year, we will see one format start to dominate. At the moment all the cards are stacked in favor of Blu-ray coming out on top. In reality, the only companies holding on to HD DVD are Toshiba and Universal and, yes, it will be a difficult pill for them to swallow to switch to Blu-ray. But it was a difficult pill for Sony to swallow when they had to start making VHS machines [after Betamax failed]. It will probably be easier for Universal because they don’t have any real financial incentive to keep HD DVD going. Toshiba has got a strong vested interest in prolonging the life of the DVD format, and that’s what HD DVD is all about. It’s basically extending the DVD format as long as you can take it.

Indeed it's still early in this format war, but Blu-ray's built-in structural advantages with the PS3 and the studio support are starting to take shape and will likely be very difficult for HD-DVD to overcome. It's interesting that a lot of the home theater enthusiasts have been decidely riding the HD-DVD bandwagon, because it was first to market, carried a very reasonable price, and had better-than-expected performance once the early bugs were worked out. Blu-ray was hampered by some poorly done titles and an overpriced and underperforming player at the outset. That plus an inherent distrust of Sony by a lot of people seemed to give HD-DVD an early heads up. But, with the PS3 turning out to be a more than capable Blu-ray player, and a full complement of new players and titles slated for 2007, it seems that Blu-ray has gotten past its early problems

Even though HD-DVD has engendered a lot of goodwill among home theater enthusiasts, I just don't see how the format can win out over Blu-ray. The best it can do at this point is force the market towards dual format approaches, or stay alive by slogging along as an entry level niche format. That same Home Media Retailing article projects that HD-DVD players will remain about $100 cheaper than Blu-ray, and will likely hit the $300 or even $200 price point by this time next year. The question though is what those HD-DVD players will have to play other than titles from Universal and porn producers (http://forums.audioreview.com/showthread.php?t=21324)?

PeruvianSkies

02-01-2007, 07:17 PM

My personal take after viewing dozens of titles from both parties is that they will more than likely co-exist similar to DVD-A and SACD. Although I personally have seen better titles and quality on HD-DVD. For example here are the absolutely KEY TITLES:

THE SEARCHERS
GRAND PRIX (70mm film in HD)
BATMAN BEGINS (one of the best for sound)
CASABLANCA
Mutiny on the Bounty

Mr Peabody

02-01-2007, 08:04 PM

Robert-The-Rambler

02-01-2007, 08:15 PM

kexodusc

02-02-2007, 05:50 AM

How many people who buy a Playstation 3 are even thinking about BLU-RAY?
You can bet a significant amount. When I finally buy an XBox 360 or PS3, the HD player will weigh heavily on my decision. I'm amazed at how many XBOX owners played DVD's with them. The reason it isn't more was simple - the cost of getting a dedicated DVD player wasn't all that much. Not so with HD-DVD and BluRay. Not to mention PS3 does the job rather well.

Curiosity will lead many PS3 owners to 1 or 2 BluRay discs alone. Look on any web forum, in any magazine article, or any Sony marketing material, and the BluRay playing is front and center. People know what they're getting in to. The performance being higher than DVD quality should keep people buying discs for awhile. The question isnt' whether consumers buy PS3 for BluRay purposes, but rather, will people who already have a PS3 buy an HD-DVD player or additional BluRay player to satisfy their HD needs? The majority probably won't for quite some time, instead they'll build their BluRay libraries up and enjoy HD video until better, dediated BluRay players are cheap. That will lead to a far larger demand for BluRay discs than HD-DVD's. It doesn't matter what proportion of BluRay players are PS3 or dedicated players, only that the demand for BluRay is higher than HD-DVD because of it.

Do not dismiss the power of herd-mentality among consumers. As Wooch mentioned, the studios have largely held to their guns, contrary to what I thought would happen. If 16 of the top 20 demanded movies to be sold this year are exclusive to BluRay, then the demand for BluRay will be more. If BluRay is releasing more blockbuster titles than HD-DVD in the future, the software demand and sales discrepancy should continue to grow in favor of BluRay. Consumers and retailers aren't oblivious to this. What do you think the first question is out every buyer's mouth in BestBuy when they're looking at BluRay and HD-DVD..."So, what's selling more?" "Who's winning?". If the answer is BluRay early on, that will heavily influence decisions. Nobody wants to buy a loser. People will see the BluRay and HD-DVD sections - if BluRay has more, people will notice. So will retailers. They'll start siding with the winner too. Even the casual article in a local newspaper, internet site, or 30 second TV spot that mentions BluRay leading (like Wooch's HM article that mentioned 80%) will influence decisions. Follow the leader...herd mentality...

Most people who buy PS3's aren't 12 year old kids - their media savvy 18-40 year olds. I think we all may have underestimated Sony on this one, myself included. Everyone pretty much expected a close race to continue indefinitely, dragging on, or for HD-DVD to slowly pull ahead because of price advantages. Nobody ever thought BluRay would be approaching a 3-to-1 sales advantage over HD-DVD this early.

By no means is this over yet, but it's definitely significant.

GMichael

02-02-2007, 07:15 AM

I hope it is decided soon. This fence is killing my butt.

Woochifer

02-02-2007, 10:33 AM

It would seem that the PS3 would skew the claim that Blu ray makes since it's a game rather than a stand alone disc player. I'd think that some people, or most, bought the PS3 without even thinking of playing HD movies. If the PS3 was out of the picture wouldn't sales be about even?

But, the thing is that you cannot separate the PS3 from the rest of the Blu-ray market, because thus far it has been the key to creating market momentum for the format. Sony wedded the Blu-ray format to the PS3 very early on, and while this shotgun pairing has created problems for Sony on the gaming side, it looks like Sony's gamble will pay off on the HD disc side. Sony was counting on the PS3 to flood the market with millions of Blu-ray players, and create a tidal wave effect that HD-DVD could not effectively counter.

Like you, I was skeptical as to how many PS3 owners would use the Blu-ray capability, but with million of players going into the market, it takes only a tiny minority of PS3 owners buying Blu-ray discs to create an insurmountable lead for the format, especially since Toshiba only sold 175,000 HD-DVD players last year.

But, it turns out that PS3 owners are buying Blu-ray discs. A survey of 10,000 PS3 owners indicated that 80% of them planned to purchase Blu-ray discs, and 75% of them plan to use the PS3 as their primary disc player.

That Home Media article indicated that after the PS3 went on the market, Blu-ray disc sales surged 700% and in less than a month the Blu-ray disc sales passed HD-DVD. In less than two months, Blu-ray's advantage was approaching 3-to-1. And that's with major production and supply chain problems for the PS3. What's going to happen if Sony succeeds in its plans to ship 6 million PS3s by the end of March?

In addition, several other Blu-ray players are ready to hit the market, and Blu-ray has already lined up a much bigger slate of disc releases for 2007.

The Betamax was already viewed as a floundering format even when it still held about 1/3 of the VCR market, and unlike HD-DVD, Beta was supported by all of the major studios.

Just playing devil's advocate, I personaly wish one would win so I can get me one some day. I just hope they continue to be backward compatible with DVD. I still have VHS laying around. It's going to be time to weed to make room. The cassettes and deck had to go some time back because when it came down to listening I just could never listen to inferior sound anymore with my CD player there.

I think the Blu-ray camp is going all out to win this format war, and playing to knock HD-DVD out as early as possible. They're trying to create a perception in the market that a Blu-ray victory is inevitable, and so far, nothing in the sales trends contradicts that perception. The studios don't want a format war, the retailers don't want it, and neither do consumers. I don't see that same play-to-win mentality from the HD-DVD side. Toshiba and Warner look like they're simply trying to extend the DVD format as long as possible, since their patents on the format are still in effect. HD-DVD seems like they're trying to force a compromise, rather than going all out to beat Blu-ray.

HD-DVD might yet succeed in forcing a coexistence with Blu-ray, but at this stage I don't think there's any way that format will come out on top.

PeruvianSkies

02-02-2007, 02:03 PM

Woochifer

02-02-2007, 03:37 PM

I think that what is being stated here is simply this...

Sony knows that it will make gaming sales, but it was able to kill two birds this time around by getting Blu ray a huge enough push early on, so that it quickly kills HD-DVD rather than prolong the battle. By prolonging the battle the competition has time to regain momentum, re-target an audience, and even do more advertising, but if Sony can quickly eliminate HD-DVD by driving the Blu ray sales through the roof than the studios have no choice but to go with Blu ray.

In a nutshell, yes. I think that Sony's decision to merge Blu-ray with the PS3 will cost them market share in the gaming market because it created production/development delays, and bumped up the console prices. But, in the long run, Blu-ray's probably the more strategically important initiative, so the Blu-ray Association's going all out to establish Blu-ray in the market and push HD-DVD aside as quickly as possible.

It's no accident that Warner and Paramount declared themselves "neutral" in the Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war after Sony announced that the PS3 would include Blu-ray. Before that time, the studios were evenly divided. Now, Universal's the lone hold out on the HD-DVD side. If Universal goes neutral, then it's over. Even if they don't, it might still be over if Sony sells 8 million PS3s in North America this year, as projected. Universal going neutral might not kill HD-DVD per se, but it would keep the format limited to less than half of the major studio output, while Blu-ray would have the entire studio release slate on its side. Betamax retained a market presence for more than 15 years, but its epitaph had already been signed a decade earlier.

In the long run, I think Sony's got its eye on much more than the HD video disc market with Blu-ray. They're also trying to establish Blu-ray as the new standard removable optical storage format for PCs and other devices, with the PS3 and Blu-ray video players serving as the key to seeding the market. Add-on Blu-ray burners are already on the market for PCs, while they've yet to come out for HD-DVD. By effectively relegating HD-DVD to also ran status on the home video side, they further solidify their prospects on the PC side.

Before the DVD came along, Sony was more ubiquitous in the PC market than even Microsoft because they had developed both the 3.5" floppy format and the CD-ROM/R/RW. If Blu-ray establishes a beach head in the home video market that carries over to the PC side, then Blu-ray will have paid off big time, regardless of how much market share they lose on the gaming side.

PeruvianSkies

02-02-2007, 05:59 PM

Exactly!

Mr Peabody

02-02-2007, 08:45 PM

PeruvianSkies

02-02-2007, 09:17 PM

Actually most of the HD-DVD's and Bluray discs on the market are around $20-$25 that I have seen, which is pretty competative with DVD in my opinion since most DVD's are about that as well. Of course, sometimes you catch certain DVD's on sale and I don't see many of the HD formats on sale. But in comparison to when DVD first came out and they were upwards of $40/ title and that was about 2x the cost of the same movie on VHS, than I think it's a steal. Keep also in mind that Laserdiscs were released with huge price tags and cost between $40-$60 for good titles.

While you may dread having to replace your collection of 300 DVD's with the new format, which I woudn't even think about right now, I think that they will go down in price as the market becomes more established.

Mr Peabody

02-02-2007, 09:29 PM

$20.00 I could do. I doubt if I replace my DVD collection. I'd just start buying new movies in whatever format. I think it's about time to visit a mass market store to scope out some of this stuff. I might even get lucky enough to see what the Blu-ray picture looks like.

I can see it now, Lucas working on Star Wars HD, then I can have them in every format :)

Woochifer

02-03-2007, 11:27 AM

I understand that a Blu-ray or HD-DVD movie costs about $30.00. Do you think the price will come down? If not, will the price keep HD movies a nitch market? I know you stated sales are growing but I'm not ready to pay that much for a movie. I don't think the average person wil either. I know many who copy DVD at, that, price. Maybe not the main reason, but I really think the price of SACD and DVD-A software, amongst lack of mainstream titles, put nails in their casket. I probably have more than 200 DVD's, maybe300 if I count all the animated movies I've bought the family I really cringe at seeing a more expensive format. I expect many of you to dismiss the price, but, you aren't average consumers. I'd really be interested to see what percentage of homes even have a HDTV today..

Actually, the prices I've seen are generally about $5 more than DVD, and some stores in my area (Fry's Electronics in particular) will do the discounted week-of-release pricing on Blu-ray and HD-DVD, with some releases going for $15.

If you look at the prices on SACD and DVD-A, they were and still are about on par with what new CDs cost. Cost has not been an issue for at least the past three years. Hybrid CD/SACD releases will typically cost no more than about $2 more than the CD-only version. SACD and DVD-A failed largely because the record companies never committed to it in full, never had a coherent strategy (i.e., the industry never standardized around the CD/SACD hybrid disc format), and had all kinds of idiotic restrictions that put off even the most dedicated early adopters (i.e., the digital output restrictions, lack of consistent bass management and delay timing, etc.).

Aside from this stupid format war, which I believe will come to an end by next year one way or another (either Blu-ray will become the standard or we'll see more dual-format discs and players), no such problems with HD-DVD and Blu-ray. HDMI connections now get around any problems with copy protection restrictions, and most major releases now come out on Blu-ray and/or HD-DVD not very long after the DVD, if not concurrently. All 20 of last year's best selling DVDs have come out or will soon come out on HD-DVD or Blu-ray (19 of them on Blu-ray). SACD and DVD-A never had that kind of support from the record companies.

As far as HDTV penetration goes, I read that Q4 2006 was huge. Before that time, HDTV penetration was less than one-fourth, and supposedly it's now approaching one-third of U.S. households. Heavy discounting by retailers led to a surge in HDTV sales that has continued into January (Super Bowl week has become the biggest single week for big screen TV sales).

Mr Peabody

02-03-2007, 01:09 PM

On the Musicdirect and Acousticsound newsletters I receive, I don't remember seeing SACD or DVD-A below $20.00. I'm sure though price isn't as big of a factor as the other reasons you stated. I hope the war is soon resolved.

I would be surprised if 1/3 of U.S. households have a HDTV. Hardly anyone I've spoken to at work or anywhere have one. I am also surprised at the lack of knowledge on the subject. I have to admit though I don't know if I would have the knowledge either if I hadn't bought HD and learned by, doing, and of course, gaps filled in here at AR. Not to get off subject, but I've also developed a big distrust of the industry after falling for the false hype fed to me in the beginning of the whole upsampling/HDMI thing. So I do more research before buying now.

The market is about perfect for a HD movie launch though. It has been nearly two years since I switched back to cable and not ONE single HD channel has been added in that time. I see DirecTV advertising a big addition of HD channels so maybe something will break. I can't see the average person feeling any urgency or incentive to switch to HD at this point.

Woochifer

02-03-2007, 06:48 PM

On the Musicdirect and Acousticsound newsletters I receive, I don't remember seeing SACD or DVD-A below $20.00. I'm sure though price isn't as big of a factor as the other reasons you stated. I hope the war is soon resolved.

Check Best Buy or Borders. Most of their SACDs and DVD-As cost right around $15-$18.

I would be surprised if 1/3 of U.S. households have a HDTV. Hardly anyone I've spoken to at work or anywhere have one. I am also surprised at the lack of knowledge on the subject. I have to admit though I don't know if I would have the knowledge either if I hadn't bought HD and learned by, doing, and of course, gaps filled in here at AR. Not to get off subject, but I've also developed a big distrust of the industry after falling for the false hype fed to me in the beginning of the whole upsampling/HDMI thing. So I do more research before buying now.

Like I said, the last quarter of 2006 created a huge sales surge for HDTV. The Black Friday doorbuster specials pushed the prices below $1,500 for brand name 42" models, and price competition throughout the holiday season kept prices low. In any given year, I recall that about 1/4 of households will buy a new TV, and by the end of last year, HDTVs came close to the majority of new TV purchases. If true, that alone potentially adds roughly 12% to the household penetration. At the start of last year, HDTV penetration was at 15%, and was still under 25% before the holiday season. I'm not sure the HDTV market market penetration has hit 1/3 just yet, but it would not surprise me if it has given how far the price points have dropped.

The complication with the TV market is more than just HDTV per se, it's the various approaches needed to make a flat panel or to get a screen size beyond ~36". Every approach for making the screen flatter or bigger entails some significant tradeoff. That's why I have yet to buy a HDTV.

I've been largely following the developments with LCD and plasma because I am looking to go with a flat panel, and it seems that the newer models address the various drawbacks with those designs. Plus, the implementations with upscaling and HDMI have improved from the earlier models.

The market is about perfect for a HD movie launch though. It has been nearly two years since I switched back to cable and not ONE single HD channel has been added in that time. I see DirecTV advertising a big addition of HD channels so maybe something will break. I can't see the average person feeling any urgency or incentive to switch to HD at this point.

Overall, 2007 is shaping up as the year that HD goes mainstream. I think HD is a case where the broadcast channels have been ahead of the curve, while the cable/satellite channels have lagged behind, but that situation's about to change. Directv will add 100 HD channels by the end of 2007, and this is great news for everybody, not just Directv subscribers, because that announcement included several channels that do not currently broadcast in HD such as CNN, MTV, A&E, History Channel, Weather Channel, FX, and TBS. You can bet that many those channels will get added to cable and Dish Network offerings as well, even if it means dropping other channels (such as the alternate time zone feeds for HBO and other channels) to accommodate the HD channels. Once these channels go HD, then I think it really opens up the demand for HDTV. And the rapidly plummeting HDTV prices add further incentive.

Mr Peabody

02-04-2007, 01:17 PM

earwax

02-04-2007, 07:39 PM

Woochifer

02-04-2007, 08:46 PM

I wonder at what point cable/satelite will quite trying to sell HD as a separate package. My guess would be either at the end of the year when there are too many to keep separate or when NTSC finally gets turnd off.

I think that so long as the majority of TVs are standard definition, HD will be considered a "premium" service. Even after analog OTA broadcasts get switched off, cable comapnies will probably still continue to retransmit their basic service using the same analog infrastructure for a while.

The big trend right now with cable companies is to bundle their TV service with phone and broadband services. Would not surprise me to see HD thrown in as added incentive to get customers to switch into one of their package deals.

I hear what your saying BUT Micosoft will NOT support Blu-ray for the computer world, the 10 billion dollar Porn world will not support Blu-ray because HD can be made on regular DVD machines and Blu-ray requires special Sony machines, a combo disk can now be made for both of them as well as combo player, and the xbox has a two hundred HD play.

It won't matter what Microsoft does because the major PC integrators (pretty much all of the major players except Toshiba) are firmly behind Blu-ray. The hardware is already out, and so are the Windows drivers for those Blu-ray drives.

The porn world has hesitated thus far on Blu-ray only because Sony's duplicating facilities will not take adults-only jobs. But, that does not mean that other Blu-ray duplicating facilities won't do the same. I think the "no porn on Blu-ray" story has been blown way out of proportion. Another website found that Japanese porn is already out on Blu-ray, and supposedly American porn releases are due out on Blu-ray as well.

As more Blu-ray duplicators come on board, any cost advantage that HD-DVD currently has will likely narrow considerably.

The Porn busness drove the VCR, the home computer and DVD to success. It's $10,000,000,000.00 is greater the the movie sells busness. Sony had it all with the Betamax. I know. I have a $700 unit because all Betamax movies were in Hi-Fi and VHS were in Stereo with AM radio sound quality.

I personally think the whole VHS-won-because-of-porn story is more of a urban myth than anything. Betamax was the first to market, first with Hi-Fi sound, first with reverse scan, etc. It was a superior format, but Sony had two fatal flaws with Betamax -- 1) initial recording time of only 90 minutes in the standard mode (it took them years to finally make a tape with close to 2 hours); and 2) failure to recruit a coalition of other manufacturers to support the Betamax format. VHS was an inferior format that won out because it had a longer recording time, and unlike Sony, JVC (the VHS developer) made it simple and inexpensive for other manufacturers to license the format. Because nearly all of the consumer electronics giants were supporting VHS (Sony only had Sanyo and Zenith on its side), the format already had a 2-1 sales advantage before prerecorded movies were even available.

Also, Beta Hi-Fi did not come out until 1983 when the format had already been on the market for 8 years. VHS Hi-Fi came out only a year later, with sound quality equal to beta.

Blu-ray is quick out of the blocks but HD will have computer, porn and cheap production because it can be made on a DVD machine. I was a Blu-ray freak till I read somewhere else what I wrote above. Remember, in its day Betamax had every movie release too and first.

Keep in mind that Betamax had support from all of the studios and still failed. HD-DVD is not supported by half of the major studios, and 16 of last year's top 20 DVD titles are not coming out on HD-DVD.

A big part of Betamax's demise occurred at the retail level, where video stores had to divide their shelves into separate VHS and Beta sections. The VHS sections were always larger, and created a sense of inevitability that Beta would eventually fail. My parents had a Betamax, and had to buy a VHS machine less than three years later because they could no longer find the movies they wanted in Beta. HD-DVD's in a much worse position because the majority of the big titles aren't available at all, while most of the big titles are or will be released on Blu-ray.

One day there will be a recordable Blu-ray and HD.

Recordable Blu-ray drives are already available. Even LG's dual-format Blu-ray/HD-DVD drive is recordable only for Blu-ray.

But Microsoft will support the HD so for computers millions will be sold. I dont see those numbers for home Blu-ray recording for stand alone units. Not many people buy DVD recorders that are not for computers. And XBOX has a $200 HD player at Walmart waiting for everyone. I think you could see the new duel disk Blu-ray/HD take off soon.

It doesn't matter what Microsoft supports so long as manufacturers like Dell, HP, Apple, and Lenovo do support Blu-ray. Purposely tweaking Windows to lock out Blu-ray would run them afoul of all sorts of anti-trust laws, not just in the U.S. but especially in the E.U. where they've pushed back on Microsoft far more aggressively than the U.S. has.

The Xbox 360's HD-DVD add-on won't have much of an effect as long as it remains a separate add-on device that pushes the Xbox price above the equivalent for a PS3. The PS3 is having an effect because the Blu-ray drive is included with and integrated into every unit.

You might be right that the dual format players might take off, but if Universal goes neutral, then the need for a dual format player totally goes away because Blu-ray would then have 100% support from the major studios. HD-DVD would only play maybe half of the major studio releases, plus whatever exclusives the porn studios might have.

kexodusc

02-05-2007, 05:39 AM

I hear what your saying BUT Micosoft will NOT support Blu-ray for the computer world, the 10 billion dollar Porn world will not support Blu-ray because HD can be made on regular DVD machines and Blu-ray requires special Sony machines, a combo disk can now be made for both of them as well as combo player, and the xbox has a two hundred HD play. The Porn busness drove the VCR, the home computer and DVD to success. It's $10,000,000,000.00 is greater the the movie sells busness. Sony had it all with the Betamax. I know. I have a $700 unit because all Betamax movies were in Hi-Fi and VHS were in Stereo with AM radio sound quality. Blu-ray is quick out of the blocks but HD will have computer, porn and cheap production because it can be made on a DVD machine. I was a Blu-ray freak till I read somewhere else what I wrote above. Remember, in its day Betamax had every movie release too and first. One day there will be a recordable Blu-ray and HD. But Microsoft will support the HD so for computers millions will be sold. I dont see those numbers for home Blu-ray recording for stand alone units. Not many people buy DVD recorders that are not for computers. And XBOX has a $200 HD player at Walmart waiting for everyone. I think you could see the new duel disk Blu-ray/HD take off soon.

Porn industry won't drive the format war at all - the vast majority of porn isn't big budget, big production stuff, but rather 2nd rate home video quality stuff. That's easy to record and put to DVD. DVD is likely to remain the standard for releases in that industry far longer than for Holywood. Much like VHS remained dominant late when DVD came out. When HD-DVD or BluRay become cheap and easy to make at home compared to DVD, then the industry will switch. There's little incentive to that industry to go HD right now.
They'll follow the leader.

Second, the porn industry will go where hardware sales go. I think it's safe to say that most HD-DVD or BluRay players are purchased without porn being a determining factor, if a factor at all.

VHS's success was inevitable by the time porno sales became significant - and trust me, there was plenty of porn available on Beta, too! Errr...so I've heard. That's more a case of the porn industry betting on the inevitable winner, much like they'll probably do this time around should BluRay or HD-DVD take a significant early lead.

earwax

02-05-2007, 02:18 PM

I agree it smells like a sure winner for Blu-ray for sure. And that is what I wanted from the beginning as I foresaw a Sony PS3 in my near future too. One of my favorite movies is on Blu-ray, The Fifth Element. But as I said in the above post, doubt crept in with the consideration of the porn move to HD, Microsoft refusal to support Blu-ray on computers and the cheap HD add on for the XBOX 360. But I have an XBOX 360 now so I would like the $200 HD add on player and some movies to rent from Netflex. Is that so much to ask for. What if Netflex and Blockbusters asked the movie people to supply HD movies to rent over the internet? They could be made on DVD machines could they not?
Also I have not kept up with any of this of late so I don't really know anything other than the early adoption of Blu-ray by the movie industry. So what do we KNOW will happen for sure.
ONE: The movie groups have moved to chose one format over another.
TWO: That in doing this it will help settle a conflict in there marketing.
THREE: This in turn will help consumers by ending the HD war.
FOUR: To watch a HD movie on disk you have to spend over $500 for a Blu-ray PS3 machine that you
CAN NOT buy till LATER or better yet a $1000 for a stand alone player or HD-DVD at $200 for an XBOX 360 add-on that you CAN buy NOW or $500 machine that you CAN buy NOW.

FIVE: It just doesn't seem fair does it?
SIX: I have been a member for 5 years and this is my third post.

Groundbeef

02-05-2007, 05:57 PM

[QUOTE=earwaxBut I have an XBOX 360 now so I would like the $200 HD add on player and some movies to rent from Netflex. Is that so much to ask for. What if Netflex and Blockbusters asked the movie people to supply HD movies to rent over the internet? They could be made on DVD machines could they not?
[/QUOTE]

Netlix DOES rent HD movies. And MS rents HD movies to d/l on the 360.

You ought to check your info before posting. Go to Netflix and pick movie genres its titled HD-DVD. Or if you want Blu-Ray, its in the Genre titled BLU-RAY.

nightflier

02-06-2007, 03:33 PM

I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket yet. I see Blu Ray following the same path as SACD, and HD-DVD as that of DVD-A. Right now they are both niche technologies that are over priced and unattainable to the masses. A few years ago, the SACD camp was also edging out the DVD-A camp, but then Sony pulled the rug out from under it. If Blu Ray doesn't make them enough profits, I would not at all be surprised if Sony pulled the plug on it sometime in the future. Sony is on my sh*t-list right now for a whole lot of reasons (trying to squelch cassettes & fair use, the VHS-Betamax debacle, crappy receivers, abandoning SACD, proprietary memory sticks, killing MP3, the rootkit scandal, you name it). Their track record smacks of a racketeering, monopolistic, corruptible 800lb corporate gorilla, so it will take some time before I put my money into a Sony technology again.

And here's something else I've been trying to wrap my head around. How can a game console with so many other features include a Blu Ray player for around $600 ($800 if you consider that they are loosing money on the thing)? Why does a plain old Blu Ray player still cost $200-400 more? If you ask me, they're ripping us all off.

Frankly I was expecting HD-DVD to win because of their earlier time to market, the lower cost of the players, and the simpler manufacturing process for the disks. I'm no fan of Microsnot, but the fact that they put their weight behind HD-DVD seemed to indicate an easy victory. Of course Microsnot isn't exactly known for having a crystal ball when it comes to technological trends, but they certainly have the market share to push the swing to their side of the playground.

Anyhow, as with SACD, it's not technology or competition that will be the worst enemy of Blu Ray, but rather the self-serving company that created it. Let's hope that Sony grows up...

Woochifer

02-06-2007, 06:02 PM

I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket yet. I see Blu Ray following the same path as SACD, and HD-DVD as that of DVD-A. Right now they are both niche technologies that are over priced and unattainable to the masses.

Are you referring to Blu-ray/HD-DVD or SACD/DVD-A as the "over priced and unattainable" technologies? If you're referring to Blu-ray/HD-DVD, it's still quite early in the game, with Blu-ray on the market only since August. At this stage with the DVD format, the basic players still cost around $800. If Blu-ray catches on, then the prices will inevitably continue to plummet. The analyst that I linked to thinks that Blu-ray players will hit the $400 price point by the end of the year. Samsung's 1st gen player that came out in August with a list price of $1,000 has already dropped below $700, and will probably drop even further as Samsung readies its 2nd gen player.

The Blu-ray and SACD path couldn't be more different. For one thing, Blu-ray has much stronger support from the movie studios than SACD ever got from the record companies. Also, Blu-ray includes a whole coalition of companies, including Dell, Panasonic, Apple, HP, Pioneer, Fox, Disney, Samsung, Lenovo, etc.

As for putting the eggs into one basket, the big issue IMO is that one camp already holds more than 80% of the eggs, while the other has less than half. And one camp already has a 10-to-1 advantage in the number of baskets. Blu-ray already has too big a structural advantage to lose the format war against HD-DVD outright. The worst case scenarios would be that HD-DVD forces a dual-format compromise, or both formats go down in flames. And right now, anything is possible.

A few years ago, the SACD camp was also edging out the DVD-A camp, but then Sony pulled the rug out from under it. If Blu Ray doesn't make them enough profits, I would not at all be surprised if Sony pulled the plug on it sometime in the future.

Where do you see Sony pulling the plug on SACD? They are still making audio-only SACD players to go along with their many DVD/SACD players; and in fact, they added SACD playback to the PS3.

If you're referring to their disc release schedule for SACD, well that's simply following the other major labels who have also abandoned high-res digital. And none of the other major labels released as many titles in high res as Sony did.

If anything, Sony has a history of sticking to its formats to the bitter end on the hardware side. Remember Minidisc and DAT? Yes, Sony still makes hardware for those formats. Remember Betamax? Sony did not stop manufacturing Betamax VCRs until 2004, even though they had lost the format war way back in the late-80s. Sony also kept manufacturing the original Playstation console until last year.

Blu-ray is way too important to Sony for them to abandon the format. To them, it's not just a means by which to play movies in HD, they're also looking for Blu-ray to take over as the standard format for optical storage on the PC side. This is nothing new for them, since they also developed the 3.5" floppy and CD-ROM drives.

And here's something else I've been trying to wrap my head around. How can a game console with so many other features include a Blu Ray player for around $600 ($800 if you consider that they are loosing money on the thing)? Why does a plain old Blu Ray player still cost $200-400 more? If you ask me, they're ripping us all off.

First off, the base PS3 console costs $500 and has the same Blu-ray playback capability as the $600 version (which adds a larger hard drive and wireless networking). If Sony is subsidizing the PS3 hardware (which they have to do in order to compete with the Wii and Xbox 360 on the gaming side), why is that a ripoff? I mean, when Toshiba was supposedly doing the same thing with its 1st gen HD-DVD players, were they ripping off customers too?

The pricing on standalone Blu-ray players is not entirely on Sony, since Samsung, Pioneer, Panasonic, AND Sony have all priced their 1st gen Blu-ray players higher than the PS3. Some early adopters simply don't want to use a gaming console to play their HD movies, or they prefer to have a player with upconverters and video scalers built in and better build quality. On the video side, manufacturers are less apt to subsidizing their hardware, since unlike with the PS3, a standalone Blu-ray player will not provide any revenue on the backside with software and accessory sales. So, for now at least, the prices on standalone Blu-ray players more accurately reflect true costs than the PS3, which has to be subsidized in order to compete with other gaming consoles.

In the end, the pricing structure will even out. And if you believe those market analysts, the prices on the standalone players will drop below the PS3 prices before the end of the year.

Frankly I was expecting HD-DVD to win because of their earlier time to market, the lower cost of the players, and the simpler manufacturing process for the disks. I'm no fan of Microsnot, but the fact that they put their weight behind HD-DVD seemed to indicate an easy victory. Of course Microsnot isn't exactly known for having a crystal ball when it comes to technological trends, but they certainly have the market share to push the swing to their side of the playground.

As mentioned throughout this thread, the two forces that have propelled Blu-ray into the lead in less than two months have been hardware sales (with the PS3 shipping in far bigger numbers than any HD-DVD player) and title availability (more releases coming out in Blu-ray, with this lead likely to widen as the year progresses). This should not have been surprising, since the PS3 came out when HD-DVD was still in the early adoption phase, and any cost advantage with HD-DVD will likely dissipate by the time either format goes mainstream.

Microsoft put their weight behind HD-DVD simply to try and block universal adoption of Blu-ray on the PC side, and to provide a counterweight to the PS3 with the Xbox 360. If anything, Microsoft would like to do nothing more than snuff out Blu-ray and HD-DVD, since they are now promoting HD downloading. Their support of HD-DVD IMO is nothing more than their usual "embrace-extend-extinguish" approach to eliminating competition by using their OS monopoly as leverage.

Microsoft's end game I think is all about extending the Windows monopoly into the living room as a universal digital media hub with everything encoded using proprietary Microsoft formats. Blu-ray and the PS3 represent the biggest obstacle at the moment (for one thing, they use open standards), and anything that the Xbox 360 and HD-DVD can do to hinder adoption of Sony's competing formats is what Microsoft will support. By the time Microsoft came out in favor of HD-DVD, Blu-ray already had Dell, HP, and Apple on board. If they were all about prognosticating the future, Blu-ray would have been a much easier bet since they already had broader industry support by the time Microsoft weighed in with their contrarian view.

If you want to draw an analogy, at the moment HD-DVD looks more like the Betamax because Toshiba's basically going at it alone on the hardware side. Having Microsoft as a partner should not be comforting to Toshiba if they're in this for the long run. Then again, I only see Toshiba supporting HD-DVD to extend the revenues from their DVD patents (which expire in about 7[?] years) as far as they can. For them, a draw in the format war is as good as a win. And the way I see it for Microsoft, it does not matter to them if HD-DVD fails so long as it takes Blu-ray down with it.

Mr Peabody

02-06-2007, 06:03 PM

Woochifer

02-06-2007, 06:27 PM

From the last Sony products I've bought, they certainly need to tighten up on the QC dept. I am in an "avoid Sony" mode myself. So if I do end up with Blu-ray it will be built by some one other than Sony.

I'm with you on that. Between my wife and I, we've had too many Sony products fail on us to trust their build quality. The only Sony product I've bought in the last five years has been the PS2, and waddya know, it still works! The only Sony Blu-ray player I'd buy would be the PS3.

kexodusc

02-07-2007, 08:13 AM

Microsoft put their weight behind HD-DVD simply to try and block universal adoption of Blu-ray on the PC side, and to provide a counterweight to the PS3 with the Xbox 360. If anything, Microsoft would like to do nothing more than snuff out Blu-ray and HD-DVD, since they are now promoting HD downloading. Their support of HD-DVD IMO is nothing more than their usual "embrace-extend-extinguish" approach to eliminating competition by using their OS monopoly as leverage.

Microsoft's end game I think is all about extending the Windows monopoly into the living room as a universal digital media hub with everything encoded using proprietary Microsoft formats. Blu-ray and the PS3 represent the biggest obstacle at the moment (for one thing, they use open standards), and anything that the Xbox 360 and HD-DVD can do to hinder adoption of Sony's competing formats is what Microsoft will support. By the time Microsoft came out in favor of HD-DVD, Blu-ray already had Dell, HP, and Apple on board. If they were all about prognosticating the future, Blu-ray would have been a much easier bet since they already had broader industry support by the time Microsoft weighed in with their contrarian view.

If you want to draw an analogy, at the moment HD-DVD looks more like the Betamax because Toshiba's basically going at it alone on the hardware side. Having Microsoft as a partner should not be comforting to Toshiba if they're in this for the long run. Then again, I only see Toshiba supporting HD-DVD to extend the revenues from their DVD patents (which expire in about 7[?] years) as far as they can. For them, a draw in the format war is as good as a win. And the way I see it for Microsoft, it does not matter to them if HD-DVD fails so long as it takes Blu-ray down with it.

Man, you got a way with words. It sounds like you got a bigger hate on for Microsoft than I do.
I think this is well summarized. In supporting HD-DVD, MS played the anti-everyone else card to support their own agenda more than than they bought into the format, IMO. I think Sony may have fired the first shot here though by making PS3 support running Linux - I don't believe for one second that this didn't raise more than a few eyebrows at Microsoft - imagine 30 million PS3 owners even knowing what the word Linux means. Either way, that's going to make the PS3 a viable option to a basic HTPC.

nightflier

02-07-2007, 04:00 PM

Are you referring to Blu-ray/HD-DVD or SACD/DVD-A as the "over priced and unattainable" technologies?

I'm referring to Blue-Ray/HD-DVD as being overpriced.

...with Blu-ray on the market only since August. At this stage with the DVD format, the basic players still cost around $800. If Blu-ray catches on, then the prices will inevitably continue to plummet. The analyst that I linked to thinks that Blu-ray players will hit the $400 price point by the end of the year. Samsung's 1st gen player that came out in August with a list price of $1,000 has already dropped below $700, and will probably drop even further as Samsung readies its 2nd gen player.

While BR players were released to manufacturing in August, I did not see one on store shelves until much later. As far as the price dropping, that's speculation. $400 is far from the current price point and would imply further profit cuts and/or sales at a loss, not to mention, that Sony would be "less apt to subsidizing the hardware, since unlike with the PS3, a standalone Blu-ray player will not provide any revenue on the backside with software and accessory sales." I also don't think that Sony or the media companies are going to drop the price of the movies much. One of the reasons PS3 is having dismal sales right now is because the games are too expensive (ask any teenager), so I believe the same is true for BR disks. If they were to sell the older crappy titles that they are now releasing (god knows why) below the price point of new standard DVD releases, that would help, but the fact is the hardware and the software are prohibitively expensive. I've said for years that the biggest rip-off is the fact that consumers have to pay new prices for old stuff (five year old CDs and DVDs still cost the same as last year's titles).

The Blu-ray and SACD path couldn't be more different. For one thing, Blu-ray has much stronger support from the movie studios than SACD ever got from the record companies. Also, Blu-ray includes a whole coalition of companies, including Dell, Panasonic, Apple, HP, Pioneer, Fox, Disney, Samsung, Lenovo, etc.

Aside from Disney, these companies do not have a large involvement in the movie industry, so they have a limitted stake in copyrights and media profits. This is, in my opinion, a much more important factor than the hardware side - if there's no selection, then consumers won't buy the players. Since most of the companies are computer companies, when Microsft says bend over, they'll do it no matter how much it hurts their "bottom" line. But the biggest similarity between BR and SACD is that they are both from Sony and that's a company with a particualrly crappy track record.

As for putting the eggs into one basket, the big issue IMO is that one camp already holds more than 80% of the eggs, while the other has less than half. And one camp already has a 10-to-1 advantage in the number of baskets. Blu-ray already has too big a structural advantage to lose the format war against HD-DVD outright. The worst case scenarios would be that HD-DVD forces a dual-format compromise, or both formats go down in flames. And right now, anything is possible.

I think your math is a little off 100% - 80% is a lot less than half. In any case, I don't see these numbers in the stores. At BB, CC, and Walmart the shelves are about 55% BR and 45% HD-DVD disks. Not really a commanding lead from what I'm seeing. The 10-1 example, I don't follow. If BR has a structural advantage, I don't see that either. The way I understand it, HD-DVD only requires minor changes in the standard DVD manufacturing process while BR requires much more. Also, licensing fees for BR are higher than HD-DVD both on the software side and the hardware side.

Where do you see Sony pulling the plug on SACD? They are still making audio-only SACD players to go along with their many DVD/SACD players; and in fact, they added SACD playback to the PS3. If you're referring to their disc release schedule for SACD, well that's simply following the other major labels who have also abandoned high-res digital. And none of the other major labels released as many titles in high res as Sony did.

I was referring to pulling the plug on the disk production. They are adding SACD compatibility to their players only for legacy support and perhaps to save face a little. I also don't know if some of the other distributors like Telarc have yet surpassed Sony in the volume of disks sold. Maybe someone can enlighten me.

If anything, Sony has a history of sticking to its formats to the bitter end on the hardware side. Remember Minidisc and DAT? Yes, Sony still makes hardware for those formats. Remember Betamax? Sony did not stop manufacturing Betamax VCRs until 2004, even though they had lost the format war way back in the late-80s. Sony also kept manufacturing the original Playstation console until last year.

Yes, they made the players, but finding the software was a whole other issue. The tapes/disks that these players needed were almost nowhere to be found after just a few years. Sony kept making the players to support their monopoly on the hardware because no third-party was going to touch a dead technology. If SACD had not been picked up by other manufacturers and distributors, then it also would be dead by now.

Blu-ray is way too important to Sony for them to abandon the format. To them, it's not just a means by which to play movies in HD, they're also looking for Blu-ray to take over as the standard format for optical storage on the PC side. This is nothing new for them, since they also developed the 3.5" floppy and CD-ROM drives.

OK, as I said before, the desktop PC is Microsoft's world, and Sony is just a squirrel trying to get a nut. By the way, HP and Dell from the BR camp, also sell HD-DVD players/burners. Heck, I can just plug the player from my XBox360 into my computer. Oh, and although PS3 is linux based, there's not a Linux developper out there who's willing to risk getting sued by Sony to write a third-party Linux driver for the thing.

First off, the base PS3 console costs $500 and has the same Blu-ray playback capability as the $600 version (which adds a larger hard drive and wireless networking). If Sony is subsidizing the PS3 hardware (which they have to do in order to compete with the Wii and Xbox 360 on the gaming side), why is that a ripoff? I mean, when Toshiba was supposedly doing the same thing with its 1st gen HD-DVD players, were they ripping off customers too?

No the rip-off is with the stand-alone players. If a BR drive costs sony, let's guess $150 of the total cost of the PS3, then why should a standalone player costs 4-5 times as much?

Microsoft put their weight behind HD-DVD simply to try and block universal adoption of Blu-ray on the PC side, and to provide a counterweight to the PS3 with the Xbox 360. If anything, Microsoft would like to do nothing more than snuff out Blu-ray and HD-DVD, since they are now promoting HD downloading. Their support of HD-DVD IMO is nothing more than their usual "embrace-extend-extinguish" approach to eliminating competition by using their OS monopoly as leverage.

Well, call me cinical, but I remeber reading that Microsoft adopted HD-DVD early on because its copy protection was more in line with the copy protection software they were trying to promote on the PC platform. I don't think there was some big conspiracy with that as most of the trade rags agreed with that justification at the time.

Microsoft's end game I think is all about extending the Windows monopoly into the living room as a universal digital media hub with everything encoded using proprietary Microsoft formats. Blu-ray and the PS3 represent the biggest obstacle at the moment (for one thing, they use open standards), and anything that the Xbox 360 and HD-DVD can do to hinder adoption of Sony's competing formats is what Microsoft will support. By the time Microsoft came out in favor of HD-DVD, Blu-ray already had Dell, HP, and Apple on board. If they were all about prognosticating the future, Blu-ray would have been a much easier bet since they already had broader industry support by the time Microsoft weighed in with their contrarian view. If you want to draw an analogy, at the moment HD-DVD looks more like the Betamax because Toshiba's basically going at it alone on the hardware side. Having Microsoft as a partner should not be comforting to Toshiba if they're in this for the long run. Then again, I only see Toshiba supporting HD-DVD to extend the revenues from their DVD patents (which expire in about 7[?] years) as far as they can. For them, a draw in the format war is as good as a win. And the way I see it for Microsoft, it does not matter to them if HD-DVD fails so long as it takes Blu-ray down with it.

Let's remember that Betamax was Sony's baby, so I wouldn't be so quick to associate HD-DVD or Toshiba with it. VHS won out because there were more titles available and it was easier to copy, something Sony fought tooth & nail. And let's not get started on that whole Sony loving Linux and Open Source nonsense. We're talking about the company that tried to kill MP3 and installed viruses on people's computers to keep them from copying music CDs. Most of us in the Open Source cmmunity consider Sony's use of Linux as an effort to subvert Linux into a profit-driven tool rather than what it was originally designed to do. While I have no love for Microsoft, and I don't doubt that they would like to squelch Sony's success in the A/V industry, the thought that this somehow makes Sony any less of a corporate shark is ludicrous.

kexodusc

02-07-2007, 05:11 PM

Oh, and although PS3 is linux based, there's not a Linux developper out there who's willing to risk getting sued by Sony to write a third-party Linux driver for the thing.

Third party driver? Sorry, this is false. Proof? There's an option in the Xross Media Bar to install a 3rd party OS. Sony's also on record on opening the PS3 to Linux and encouraging 3rd party developers to create all sorts of applications and programs for use on it. Respecting software licenses is one thing, but there's nothing preventing Linux from being installed on it to expand use, any more than installing it on your PC or Mac. Sony's no saint when it comes to protecting their music/video empires, but they'll play both sides of the fence if it helps PS3.

I know of several Linux distributions that have already provided instructions on how to install on PS3.

And let's not get started on that whole Sony loving Linux and Open Source nonsense. We're talking about the company that tried to kill MP3 and installed viruses on people's computers to keep them from copying music CDs. Most of us in the Open Source cmmunity consider Sony's use of Linux as an effort to subvert Linux into a profit-driven tool rather than what it was originally designed to do.

Most of us in the Open Source community are thrilled to see Linux reaching (yet another) a mainstream hardware platform. Don't lump Open Source and music/video piracy in the same batch either. Sony's no saint for sure, and they'd love to make a buck off Linux being an option in PS3, but encouraging Linux is a positive step. They'll still enforce copyrights on their software but that's to be expected.

Edit - just to add...don't think the presence of Linux is going to do much for PS3 or BluRay other than create a bit of added value. If anything it'll benefit Linux the most through awareness creation, and just piss off Microsoft a bit.

Woochifer

02-07-2007, 07:03 PM

While BR players were released to manufacturing in August, I did not see one on store shelves until much later. As far as the price dropping, that's speculation. $400 is far from the current price point and would imply further profit cuts and/or sales at a loss, not to mention, that Sony would be "less apt to subsidizing the hardware, since unlike with the PS3, a standalone Blu-ray player will not provide any revenue on the backside with software and accessory sales." I also don't think that Sony or the media companies are going to drop the price of the movies much.

Actually, $400 would not be too far off from where the prices on Blu-ray players have already gone. Like I mentioned, that Samsung player is supposedly selling for below $700 now, and the price trajectory for $400 by the end of the year would pretty much follow a similar path that the DVD took, where players were selling for below $500 by 1999.

Also, do you really think that the cost structure for manufacturing these Blu-ray players will stay the same? With the need for millions of Blu-ray drives due to demand from the PS3, you can bet that the unit costs will go down markedly as the year progresses. And from what I've read, the BD-ROM drive was the single most expensive item in the PS3 and Blu-ray players.

The price of the movies probably won't fall too much, because they're already not that far off from where DVDs are. The price premium right now is only $5 above standard definition DVDs, and the prices on discs are a lot lower than what DVDs cost during the launch phase.

One of the reasons PS3 is having dismal sales right now is because the games are too expensive (ask any teenager), so I believe the same is true for BR disks. If they were to sell the older crappy titles that they are now releasing (god knows why) below the price point of new standard DVD releases, that would help, but the fact is the hardware and the software are prohibitively expensive. I've said for years that the biggest rip-off is the fact that consumers have to pay new prices for old stuff (five year old CDs and DVDs still cost the same as last year's titles).

How do you figure that the PS3 sales are "dismal"? If they meet their target of shipping 6 million PS3s by the end March, they will actually outpace the early sales from the PS2, which went on to sell over 100 million units (and counting). And the 1 million units that shipped in North America by the beginning of January far exceeds what Toshiba sold in HD-DVD players (175,000 worldwide).

I think you're jumping the gun with these nitpicks, because Blu-ray and HD-DVD are still in the early adoption phase. It would be like chiming in less than six months after the DVD launch and complaining about how much the DVD players cost, and how the studios are ripping off consumers because the DVDs cost more than VHS tapes. Fast forward 9 years, do you hear anyone complaining about how much DVD players cost now? Or waxing nostalgia about the bargain prices of VHS tapes?

Aside from Disney, these companies do not have a large involvement in the movie industry, so they have a limitted stake in copyrights and media profits. This is, in my opinion, a much more important factor than the hardware side - if there's no selection, then consumers won't buy the players. Since most of the companies are computer companies, when Microsft says bend over, they'll do it no matter how much it hurts their "bottom" line. But the biggest similarity between BR and SACD is that they are both from Sony and that's a company with a particualrly crappy track record.

I suggest that you go back and re-read my original post. I get the impression that you're more interested in going on an anti-Sony rant, than looking at how the market trends are shaping up. The companies I listed are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the industry support for Blu-ray.

The fact is that Fox, Sony, AND Disney support Blu-ray EXCLUSIVELY, and last year they accounted for more than HALF of the North American box office. That's a lot of titles that will not be seen on HD-DVD. Conversely, Warner and Paramount are officially neutral, which means that they will release titles in both formats. Universal is the ONLY studio that supports HD-DVD exclusively.

I think your math is a little off 100% - 80% is a lot less than half. In any case, I don't see these numbers in the stores. At BB, CC, and Walmart the shelves are about 55% BR and 45% HD-DVD disks. Not really a commanding lead from what I'm seeing. The 10-1 example, I don't follow. If BR has a structural advantage, I don't see that either. The way I understand it, HD-DVD only requires minor changes in the standard DVD manufacturing process while BR requires much more. Also, licensing fees for BR are higher than HD-DVD both on the software side and the hardware side.

My math is not off. Blu-ray already has more than 80% of the studio market in its corner. If Universal goes neutral, then Blu-ray's studio support is at 100%.

Worldwide, 2+ million PS3 players have gone out. This means that 2+ million Blu-ray players have gone out. Coupled with Toshiba shipping only 175,000 HD-DVD players total, that equates to more than a 10-to-1 advantage, excluding whatever number of HD-DVD add-ons for the Xbox 360 were sold and whatever number of other Blu-ray players have sold. This is why Blu-ray disc sales surged 700% starting in November, passed HD-DVD disc sales in December, and so far this year holds a 2-to-1 advantage in disc sales. This was the whole reason that I started this thread in the first place, since people who have not seen the more recent market data might still think that the two side are still roughly even.

And from what I've read, the titles due to come out in 2007 are already stacking up about 3-to-1 in favor of Blu-ray. Among the top 20 titles from last year, Blu-ray holds about a 5-to-1 advantage. Among exclusive titles in the top 20, Blu-ray holds a 16-to-1 advantage. Anyway you cut it, the numbers simply don't favor HD-DVD.

What you see in stores is simply HD-DVD with a six-month headstart. Of course, they'll be roughly even with Blu-ray on the store shelves. But, I doubt that parity will remain in place by the end of the year, or even six months from now, simply because Blu-ray has more releases coming out.

I was referring to pulling the plug on the disk production. They are adding SACD compatibility to their players only for legacy support and perhaps to save face a little. I also don't know if some of the other distributors like Telarc have yet surpassed Sony in the volume of disks sold. Maybe someone can enlighten me.

On the contrary, Sony hasn't pulled the plug on disc production at all. Their duplicating facility in Terre Haute is still cranking out SACDs and hybrid discs. Who do you think manufactures the SACDs for companies like Telarc?

And in case you don't know, SACD is part of the HDMI spec (1.2 and 1.3). It has nothing to do with saving face. It's part of the current industry standards. Every Blu-ray player can play SACD, and every receiver with HDMI 1.2 or newer can accept a digital SACD datastream (either native 1-bit, or transcoded to 96/24 PCM).

Yes, they made the players, but finding the software was a whole other issue. The tapes/disks that these players needed were almost nowhere to be found after just a few years. Sony kept making the players to support their monopoly on the hardware because no third-party was going to touch a dead technology. If SACD had not been picked up by other manufacturers and distributors, then it also would be dead by now.

Take a look at who still supports SACD (and DVD-A for that matter). Where do you see any of the major labels? The reason why Sony stopped releasing SACDs was pretty simple -- consumers weren't buying them! The companies that still support SACD are the same niche labels that have always catered to audiophiles.

And I don't know how you define a "monopoly" but since when did Sony take ownership of Denon, Pioneer, Toshiba, Yamaha, Bel Canto, McIntosh, Linn, Classe, Theta, and all the other manufacturers that still make SACD players? And I guess that someone might want to get on the phone with Burr-Brown (the primary DAC vendor for universal players) and let them know that third parties aren't supposed to touch "dead" technologies. Or maybe the HDMI specs should be rewritten to exclude SACD support, since Sony's this evil monopolist.

OK, as I said before, the desktop PC is Microsoft's world, and Sony is just a squirrel trying to get a nut.

Uh, actually Sony's a developer whose disc formats have actually been more ubiquitous than even Microsoft in the PC world over the past two decades. (remember 3.5" floppy discs? Or CD-ROMs? All Sony formats)

By the way, HP and Dell from the BR camp, also sell HD-DVD players/burners. Heck, I can just plug the player from my XBox360 into my computer. Oh, and although PS3 is linux based, there's not a Linux developper out there who's willing to risk getting sued by Sony to write a third-party Linux driver for the thing.

HP yes, Dell no.

http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/innovation/en/cto_bluray?c=us&l=en&s=corp

No the rip-off is with the stand-alone players. If a BR drive costs sony, let's guess $150 of the total cost of the PS3, then why should a standalone player costs 4-5 times as much?

And is anyone forcing you to buy the Blu-ray players at those introductory prices? If you think Blu-ray players cost too much (which I do as well), then don't buy one! Like I said, the 1st gen DVD players cost upwards of $800 in 1997, and that format did quite well for itself.

Well, call me cinical, but I remeber reading that Microsoft adopted HD-DVD early on because its copy protection was more in line with the copy protection software they were trying to promote on the PC platform. I don't think there was some big conspiracy with that as most of the trade rags agreed with that justification at the time.

I'm simply making note of how Microsoft has done business over the years. That whole "embrace-extend-extinguish" model has been played out repeated, and their embrace of HD-DVD fits right in with that script. Microsoft has been ruled to be a monopolist via court decisions in the U.S. and the E.U. In contrast, Sony has never had an anti-trust ruling identify it as a monopoly.

Let's remember that Betamax was Sony's baby, so I wouldn't be so quick to associate HD-DVD or Toshiba with it. VHS won out because there were more titles available and it was easier to copy, something Sony fought tooth & nail.

Right, and HD-DVD is Toshiba's baby, and like Sony with the Betamax, Toshiba's basically going into the market alone. Where are the other manufacturers? Like with VHS, Blu-ray has most of the major consumer electronics giants in its corner.

Your assertion about VHS having "more titles available" is not totally true, because Beta had the same amount of major studio support. Aside from porn titles, all of the major studio releases that came out on VHS were also issued in Beta through about the mid-80s. Where the availability shortage occurred was at the retail level, where video stores simply stocked more titles in VHS because that's what most of their customers owned.

And how did Sony fight "tooth & nail" the title availability and ease of copying with VHS? VHS won simply because JVC signed up more licensees and consumers preferred a VCR that could record 2 hours (in standard mode) over the Betamax machines that were limited to 90 minutes. It's that simple

clmbia45

02-08-2007, 11:07 AM

Maybe Microsoft will buy a studio or two?

Woochifer

02-08-2007, 12:23 PM

Maybe Microsoft will buy a studio or two?

Actually, they became a minority stakeholder in Universal when the studio merged with NBC (where Microsoft has an ownership stake through their MSNBC joint venture). That would explain why Universal's the lone HD-DVD holdout, even as the other studios have gone into the Blu-ray camp.

nightflier

02-08-2007, 12:43 PM

Wooch,

I certainly don't have the insight into industry numbers that you do, I'm just making my observations about what I see on store shelves. If this is 6 months off, then we will need another six months to see these conclusions through.

I don't agree with everything you've stated, and I also think that there is a lot of misunderstanding about what I was trying to say. My basic points are that:

- On the PC, I don't see BR being dominant today - your stats for the A/V industry don't apply there
- Disk sales do not appear to be 80% BR on store shelves today
- While PS3 sold millions of units, that's not necessarily by a population that will be using them to view movies
- Sony is no saint in the marketplace or in the courts
- From what I've read, the Linux and Open Source communities are not welcoming Sony with open arms, whatever Kexo may think.
- Many other points I could argue, but this would take this thread into too many tangents

Bottom line is that what I see today, does not indicate a clear winner. I'm no fan of either Microsoft or Sony, mostly because of their business practices. If either could become a monopolistic player in this industry, don't think for a minute they will pass that up.

And let's not pretend that raising the flag of victory in one camp, isn't done to influence the choice of others here. Politics make strange bedfellows, as they say, and in the case of Sony, his memory stick doesn't fit in your SD slot and he'll leave you with a root-kit virus to remember him by.

Mr Peabody

02-08-2007, 07:33 PM

Woochifer

02-08-2007, 09:38 PM

Wooch,

I certainly don't have the insight into industry numbers that you do, I'm just making my observations about what I see on store shelves. If this is 6 months off, then we will need another six months to see these conclusions through.

The key though is that the disc sales took less than two months to totally swing 2-to-1 in favor of Blu-ray, and that was before Sony got its act together on the PS3 distribution (not to mention, the fact that the PS3 has yet to get released in Europe), and before the studios supporting Blu-ray have even ramped up their major releases.

What you see in retail stores does not always reflect what's going on in the greater market. No special insights on my part, just making note of what I've read. This Nielson Videoscan data is really the first hard data that cuts through the claims and counterclaims by both sides. And the only conclusion that can be drawn is that it does nothing to refute Blu-ray Association's victory declaration. Sure, it's early in the game, but HD-DVD has got a lot of ground to make up just to force a draw.

- On the PC, I don't see BR being dominant today - your stats for the A/V industry don't apply there

And I never claimed that Blu-ray was dominant today on the PC side.

The issue on the PC side is that the Blu-ray burners have already come out, and Blu-ray has more of the system integrators on board than HD-DVD (HP only recently went neutral). The sales trends on the AV side matter in the sense that people do use their PCs to watch movies, and if they're going to specify Blu-ray or HD-DVD on a new PC, which format are they likelier to choose? The one that has more title releases and a larger disc capacity, or the format that has fewer titles and smaller capacity?

- Disk sales do not appear to be 80% BR on store shelves today

All that I've said about DISC SALES is that they are currently 2-to-1 in favor of Blu-ray. My 80% assertion is about STUDIO SUPPORT. You figure that since 5 out of the 6 major studios support Blu-ray, that equates to more than 80% industry support, while 3 out of the 6 major studios which together comprise less than 50% of the domestic box office equates to a similar share of the title releases for HD-DVD.

- While PS3 sold millions of units, that's not necessarily by a population that will be using them to view movies

Again, read the thread. I already noted that a survey of 10,000 PS3 owners found that over 80% of them intend to purchase Blu-ray discs, and 75% of them intend to use the PS3 as their primary disc player. How else do you explain the surge in Blu-ray disc sales?

- Sony is no saint in the marketplace or in the courts

And I never claimed that they were. But, you were the one that called Sony a monopoly, while the courts have not. In contrast, Microsoft has been branded a monopolist by courts on two continents.

Bottom line is that what I see today, does not indicate a clear winner. I'm no fan of either Microsoft or Sony, mostly because of their business practices. If either could become a monopolistic player in this industry, don't think for a minute they will pass that up.

Again, how do you define monopoly? JVC did not become a monopoly just because they developed VHS. Why? Because they were not the only vendor and developer. They simply defined the standards and worked with a broad coalition of manufacturers to market the format. It's no different than how Sony has gone about bringing Blu-ray to market. If Sony went belly up tomorrow, Blu-ray would live on because a whole coalition of companies support and develop the format. For example, the upcoming 200 GB Blu-ray disc format was developed by TDK, while Panasonic was instrumental in figuring out how to mass produce dual-layer Blu-ray discs at high yield rates.

And let's not pretend that raising the flag of victory in one camp, isn't done to influence the choice of others here.

I'm not pretending anything. Of course, it's about marketing and shaping public opinion. But, the difference between the two camps is that the market data and market structure do not contradict the Blu-ray camp's claims. When the Blu-ray Association declared victory at CES, I rolled my eyes. Like a lot of other people, I presumed that neither side had an overwhelming advantage.

But, then I looked at the sales trends, and the release schedule, and pretty much concluded that Blu-ray is the only format that can win the format war outright. HD-DVD can only hope for a forced compromise (and that's still a very strong possibility IMO), because so long as the studio support for Blu-ray remains intact, HD-DVD will always be at a huge disadvantage. Microsoft sees the future in HD downloading, with themselves as the gatekeeper. Their support of HD-DVD is nothing more than a means to that end.

Politics make strange bedfellows, as they say, and in the case of Sony, his memory stick doesn't fit in your SD slot and he'll leave you with a root-kit virus to remember him by.

Like I said, Blu-ray isn't all about Sony. Now that Blu-ray has setup a working group that oversees the format standards, Sony no longer has total control over how the format implementation evolves even if they hold most of the patents. Memory Stick and those rootkits were things that Sony did on their own, and were not supported by any other companies. Just as the CD format was overseen by a working group that Sony and Philips did not exercise total control over, same M.O. applies with Blu-ray.

Woochifer

02-08-2007, 09:45 PM

I'm with you on that. Between my wife and I, we've had too many Sony products fail on us to trust their build quality. The only Sony product I've bought in the last five years has been the PS2, and waddya know, it still works! The only Sony Blu-ray player I'd buy would be the PS3.

Quoting myself because I had a total brain fart! Forgot that I also bought a Sony SACD changer a little over a year ago! My CD changer needed replacement, a local electronics chain was having a bankruptcy sale, and I had a chance to grab an ES model for half off. It was too tempting! BTW, it still works as well.

kexodusc

02-09-2007, 04:53 AM

If the cable DVR boxes are any indication of Linux reliability, I'd say Sony and the PS3 might be in trouble. But that may be a Motorola fault rather than Linux, my satelite DVR worked for a couple years fine, then I switched. Both units are very slow though, I wonder how Linux is working out with the PS3.

Most problems with DVR machines are firmware/hardware related...Motorola's are notorious for firmware issues. My provider had to schedule to firmware updates for our Moto's - it's kinda creepy when your STB turns itself on and starts blinking and buzzing and humming all by itself. Linux has a simple role to play and does it rather well. In fact, if you're using a machine from a major tv provider, satellite or cable, chances are it has Linux in it.

I don't really know why PS3 thought to include it other than to facilitate making PS3 a home theater PC box type thing. Either way, anything that proliferates the awareness and use of Linux is good from where I stand. I don't see Linux really having any effect on the BluRay/HD-DVD war though.

kexodusc

02-09-2007, 05:07 AM

- From what I've read, the Linux and Open Source communities are not welcoming Sony with open arms, whatever Kexo may think.

Just curious, where are you reading these statements at? People might gripe about Sony, but that doesn't mean they're opposed to anything that could potentially benefit the Linux community. Creating awareness and increasing use is just what they want. What could possibly be a negative about the freedom to add Linux to your PS3? I'd love to read these.

Everyday on the forums I visit and sites I read there's further examples of applying Linux to the PS3. I've not encountered one bit of negative sentiment about Sony providing this freedom. Most people don't like Sony but are happy they are provided choice ahd freedom of OS's on the PS3 - which is one of the binding principles of Open Source. Mutually beneficial to both parties.

And any dislike for Sony by the Open Source community is completely eclipsed by the seething hatred of Microsoft...It's like Nixon vs. Hitler...

nightflier

02-09-2007, 11:29 AM

Kexo,

My online Linux / Open Source reading may veer more to the non-commercial side of the net than most "official" sources, but in any case, here are some "official" links. The biggest issue of late is when companies that use Linux in their commercial products want to force their own copyright standards on the Linux / OpenSource community:

DRM key to Linux's consumer success?
http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/software/soa/DRM_key_to_Linux_s_consumer_success_/0,130061733,139251007,00.htm

A Five Minute Guide to Opposing DRM
http://www.linuxjournal.com/node/1000073

A portion of Sony's DRM rootkit discussion thread:
http://lxer.com/module/forums/t/19399/

Sony DRM Gets Sneakier
http://www.linuxinsider.com/story/47108.html

And for those who think Sony is such a wonderful company, here's some recent Sony history:

Sony slapped with another patent suit
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6153997.html

INDUSTRY GOES ON GLOBAL OFFENSIVE AGAINST ENVIRONMENTALISTS
http://www.mapcruzin.com/news/news091900a.htm

And there's a lot more. But I will grant you that the negative press about Sony pales in comparison with the negative press about Microsoft. While the two companies do have
different corporate cultures, I wouldn't describe Sony as a warm fuzzy company to get cuddly with. What they have done to force their own standards, and their incessant fight against fair use, not only stifles innovation, but often does this at their own expense (as in the case of SACD), which is my primary reason for being cautious about proclaiming a Sony technology as the winner in a format war this early in the game. Ironically this is also why financial analysts are still cautious about recommending Sony as an investment, despite the PS3 and BRs early successes.

As I posted in another thread, Microsoft is readying a black X-Box360 in the $600 price range that should have a compelling amount of new technology to compete with the PS3. If history is any indication, Microsoft always arrives late to the party (networking, office suites, web browsers, to name some examples), but then always manages to be the spoiler at the table. So let's be cautious about what Microsoft, Toshiba, and Universal still have up their sleeve. Microsoft and Toshiba, in particular, have substantial financial resources to dump products on the market that would be particularly hurtful to Sony, especially after the weak financial report of the past quarter. For example:

- Universal could severely ramp up HD-DVD production at little extra cost. What if they were to release a number of box sets at substantial discounts? Or how about from their large collection of music & concert titles in conjunction with a national ad campaing about the sound quality improvements over DVD?

- Microsoft could offer the whole Vista package on one HD-DVD with added "showcase content." It could give out coupons for free HD-DVD drives with the purchase of the current X-box360.

- If BR players will come down to $400 (a 60% drop?), the why could Toshiba not drop the price of their players to $200.

- Microsoft could make their external HD-DVD drive a write drive at little extra cost in partnership with Toshiba. They could add wi-fi to it at maybe an extra $15 per unit and sell it as a "place anywhere" music / file / video server with 15Gb of storage on each disk. The home integration proponents would love the simplicity & easy of use.

I can make this list longer, but you get my point. Even is BR is better in every way, the HD-DVD camp could still win this war by dumping product on the market at a pace that the BR folks cannot keep up with. Given how strapped everyone is for cash, many consumers will opt for the less expensive option.

And no, I don't work for Microsoft, Toshiba, or UMG, nor do I own any hi def player yet. I'm just saying we should be more cautious about declaring a winner.

kexodusc

02-09-2007, 12:29 PM

Kexo,

My online Linux / Open Source reading may veer more to the non-commercial side of the net than most "official" sources, but in any case, here are some "official" links. The biggest issue of late is when companies that use Linux in their commercial products want to force their own copyright standards on the Linux / OpenSource community:

DRM key to Linux's consumer success?
http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/software/soa/DRM_key_to_Linux_s_consumer_success_/0,130061733,139251007,00.htm

A Five Minute Guide to Opposing DRM
http://www.linuxjournal.com/node/1000073

A portion of Sony's DRM rootkit discussion thread:
http://lxer.com/module/forums/t/19399/

Sony DRM Gets Sneakier
http://www.linuxinsider.com/story/47108.html

And for those who think Sony is such a wonderful company, here's some recent Sony history:

Sony slapped with another patent suit
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6153997.html

INDUSTRY GOES ON GLOBAL OFFENSIVE AGAINST ENVIRONMENTALISTS
http://www.mapcruzin.com/news/news091900a.htm

And there's a lot more. But I will grant you that the negative press about Sony pales in comparison with the negative press about Microsoft. While the two companies do have
different corporate cultures, I wouldn't describe Sony as a warm fuzzy company to get cuddly with. What they have done to force their own standards, and their incessant fight against fair use, not only stifles innovation, but often does this at their own expense (as in the case of SACD), which is my primary reason for being cautious about proclaiming a Sony technology as the winner in a format war this early in the game. Ironically this is also why financial analysts are still cautious about recommending Sony as an investment, despite the PS3 and BRs early successes.

Hey Nightflier - thanks for the links.

When I look at those threads, the theme I get is that Open Source guys area against intrusive DRM - which I'm against too - but definitely not that they're against Linux's expansion to PS3. Or even against Sony for that matter - save for Sony's position on DRM. These are two separate issues.

Open source computing can coexist with rights management. If nobody priated music, it wouldn't be an issue. I can't really blame Sony for trying to do something to limit piracy. Instead of blaming Sony, we should blame the legislators who create and enforce copyrights and intellectual property. Or we accept that DRM is necessary (just not very effective or totally fair in its present form).

Hidden rights management software (which really wasn't completely hidden if one reads the cd cover fine print) is pretty dirty and kinda points a finger to everyone, guilty or innocent.

The biggest issue of late is when companies that use Linux in their commercial products want to force their own copyright standards on the Linux / OpenSource community

If users feel this way, they're fooling themselves. Companies are allowed to use Linux by virtue of the GNU/Public license. They aren't forcing copyright standards on the Linux Community at all!!! Those copyright standards exist in law already- not because Sony or anyone else is bullying the poor little consumer. They exist because society's law makers have made it so. This is a moral issue of course. But Sony isn't breaking the law here, and Sony shouldn't be blamed for protecting licenses it acquired by paying for. Quite the opposite. Let me ask you, who is the bigger victim? Sony, who watches millions of its licensed product stolen without receiving compensation, or the consumer, who is guaranteed a fully functional product (if somewhat inconvenient to use) providing they don't break any laws? We might not like it, but they have a valid stance.

We can argue how much money Sony loses from piracy - I doubt it's a fraction of what they say they lose. But they have a point. If I substitute movie or song with "Ferarri", and take one and use it without paying, I go to prison. Plain and simple. I can't steal a Ferarri just because it's easy and because I can't afford it or choose not to buy it.

I'll admit I painted an extreme picture here, but
The Linux forums I frequent generally hate DRM (for reasons of inconvenience more than principle) and are happy to see PS3 open the hardware to a Linux OS.

Linux users are already legally required to respect copyrights anyway - they have nothing to lose by Sony opening the PS3. In fact, if you download and install a free, open source Linux distro - you aren't provided the trademark/copyright protected media codecs (you have to "acquire" those). DRM is nothing new to the Open source community. It's the intrusive, annoying, functionally limiting DRM I think the Open Source community is reluctant to spread. That's, unfortunately, probably unavoidable, as most record companies and movie studios seem hellbent on it.

nightflier

02-09-2007, 12:42 PM

Kexo,

I don't share your views on Sony, DRM, or the position of the Linux / OpenSource community, but let's agree to disagree here, as this is a bit off-topic for this thread and we could go on forever splitting hairs. Anyhow, that's why there are forums like these.

Back to the thread, the crux seems to be the adoption of the PS3 as the new medium for BR to the masses. Here's another caveat, that could really be a setback for the BR camp:

What if apple came out with their own gaming console built on the Mini platform, sporting a HD-DVD-RW drive, firewire, SD memory, HDMI, and running Windows? Heck, given Steve Jobs' views on DRM, he might throw in a selection of HD-DVD disks into the bundle and a free membership to iTunes for a year. Do you really think all the millions of iPod users and future iPhone owners will buy anything else?

Woochifer

02-09-2007, 01:45 PM

As I posted in another thread, Microsoft is readying a black X-Box360 in the $600 price range that should have a compelling amount of new technology to compete with the PS3. If history is any indication, Microsoft always arrives late to the party (networking, office suites, web browsers, to name some examples), but then always manages to be the spoiler at the table.

Actually, Microsoft's history is figuring out how to leverage their OS monopoly to stamp out competition in the application arena. If you'll recall, Microsoft used to claim that they had an internal "chinese wall" that separated the OS and application development groups. Testimony in the U.S. anti-trust case exposed this for the lie that it was. Turned out that the OS and application developers worked hand in hand throughout the development process to create as much of a competitive advantage for Microsoft as possible; and all the while Microsoft kept denying competing application developers access to information about pending changes to the OS while simultaneously tweaking the OS in ways that made competing applications run slower and less reliably.

- Universal could severely ramp up HD-DVD production at little extra cost. What if they were to release a number of box sets at substantial discounts? Or how about from their large collection of music & concert titles in conjunction with a national ad campaing about the sound quality improvements over DVD?

They could, but they still control less than 20% of the market. Hard to make an impact without other partners doing the same thing. Universal already tried to boost CD sales by unilaterally lowering prices a couple of years ago. That strategy did not work, and their music group took a bath financially. Hard to imagine them doing the same thing on the movie side, especially considering that HD-DVD (and Blu-ray prices for that matter) prices aren't that much higher than DVD to begin with.

Microsoft could offer the whole Vista package on one HD-DVD with added "showcase content." It could give out coupons for free HD-DVD drives with the purchase of the current X-box360.

I think that's a pipe dream. Microsoft is all about the "connected" house. HD-DVD does not fit into that vision. They'll support HD-DVD just enough to try and slow Blu-ray down, but I doubt that they'll go back into the loss column on the Xbox 360 to do that. And the product tie-in with Vista would not work because 1) most existing computers can't handle Vista, and Microsoft already projects that only about 10% of XP owners will upgrade; and 2) the computers likeliest to get HD-DVD drives are new ones, and most of them from here on out will already come preloaded with Vista.

If BR players will come down to $400 (a 60% drop?), the why could Toshiba not drop the price of their players to $200.

And if you read that analyst interview I linked to, that's exactly what they predict Toshiba will do, but more as a desperation move than anything because they project that Blu-ray will likely widen their lead in HD disc player sales. I think only an Xbox 360/HD-DVD tie-in can reverse this tide (has to be an internal drive), and even then, studio support remains an issue.

Even is BR is better in every way, the HD-DVD camp could still win this war by dumping product on the market at a pace that the BR folks cannot keep up with. Given how strapped everyone is for cash, many consumers will opt for the less expensive option.

They can dump product onto the market, but the question is whether consumers will buy into a format not supported by half of the major studios, and available for only 4 of last year's top 20 top selling home video titles? Sure, consumers will opt for a less expensive option, all things being equal. But, in this case, things are not equal since roughly half the market exclusively supports a competing format. If it turns out that Blu-ray remains too expensive, consumers also have the third option of not buying into either format for the time being.

And with Sony churning out PS3s by the millions, I don't think that any ramp up with HD-DVD can come close to equaling that output. The only event that can counter Blu-ray's advantage with the PS3 would be if Microsoft began integrating the HD-DVD drive into the Xbox 360.

And no, I don't work for Microsoft, Toshiba, or UMG, nor do I own any hi def player yet. I'm just saying we should be more cautious about declaring a winner.

I don't work for anyone associated with this format war and don't own a HD video player either. But, I think that Blu-ray has established a structural advantage in the market, very similar to how JVC and its VHS partners put the Betamax format behind the 8-ball almost from the very beginning despite Beta's technical superiority. And in this case, HD-DVD is at the technical disadvantage, has far less support from manufacturers and content providers alike, and is already getting outsold by more than 10-to-1 (Betamax still held roughly 20% of the market when the major studios started going VHS-only with their new releases). The format war's not over only in the sense that HD-DVD has not gone away yet, but I have yet to see a sign based on actual trend data that a reversal will start soon.
HD-DVD might have a more viable future if Fox and/or Disney go neutral. But, I don't think either studio has any interesting in prolonging this format war, and their going neutral would do exactly that.

Woochifer

02-15-2007, 04:52 PM

Bill Hunt, editor of The Digital Bits (http://www.thedigitalbits.com/), posted his best commentary yet on the state of the Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war. He has probably been following the issues with both formats better than anyone since the beginning, and IMO takes a very rational view in assessing the market trends. My views have largely tracked with his because he has consistently laid out the facts and avoided getting sidetracked by the fanboy rantings from both sides.

Anyway, here's the 2/15 commentary.

You know, the funny thing about all this is that I really like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc just as video formats. They both deliver fantastic quality and features. But technically and quality-wise, this format war is basically a wash. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that if this battle is going to be decided by anything, it will be other factors. Like which studios support each format, which manufacturers support each format, what the software and hardware sales trends are, etc. And in each of those areas, Blu-ray has developed a clear edge.

Let's look at these simple facts: Of the 12 major and mini-major Hollywood studios (Fox, Disney, MGM, Sony, Lionsgate, Paramount, New Line, HBO, Warner Bros, Universal, DreamWorks and The Weinstein Company) 9 support Blu-ray, 5 of them exclusively. Only 6 support HD-DVD, just 2 of them exclusively (one studio, DreamWorks, remains uncommitted). Not counting computer hardware or budget brands, Blu-ray Disc has 9 major set-top hardware manufacturers behind it (Sony, Pioneer, Samsung, Philips, Panasonic, LG, Mitsubishi, Thomson, Sharp), while HD-DVD boasts just two (Toshiba and now LG). HD-DVD is an add-on to Microsoft's Xbox 360, while Blu-ray is built into EVERY Sony PlayStation 3. Nielsen VideoScan is reporting that in software sales, Blu-ray has virtually erased the sales lead enjoyed by HD-DVD since the formats were launched, and is now outselling HD-DVD by a 2 to 1 (and growing) margin.

I can understand that some people just love HD-DVD and have had great experiences with it. We have too. I understand that some people hate Sony for perceived corporate arrogance. I'm not a big fan of their tactics either, particularly how they went around the DVD Forum to develop their format. But let's face it - the biggest corporate cheerleader for HD-DVD seems to be Microsoft, which isn't exactly comforting either. All of those issues aside, however, how do you argue with the facts that are clearly becoming obvious - namely, ALL those things I just mentioned above? Frankly, the best sales pitch the HD-DVD camp seems to be able to make right now is: "Hey, we've got DVD right in the name! Plus cheap off-brand players are on the way! And porn!" I guess I have to be the guy who states the obvious, but doesn't that seem a little odd to anyone?

The cheap players thing is worth addressing here. The reality is, price sensitivity isn't an issue in the first year or so of any new format. It's mostly just the early adopters who are interested at that point anyway. By the time a wider consumer base is starting to get interested, 2nd and 3rd generation players have entered the market and they're inevitably cheaper. What surprised me most at CES is just how aggressively the HD-DVD camp seems to be trying to drive their format's hardware prices as low as possible by bringing off-brand Asian manufactures into their fold. The arrival of ultra-cheap $100 and $50 players in the DVD industry is what spelled the end of DVD hardware profitability for the major CE manufacturers. So why INVITE this situation before your format is even a year old? It makes no business sense that I can see, unless it's a desperation play - a last ditch effort not to lose.

I've also heard people cite universal players as the answer to having two formats. But the problem with universal players is that while they make life easier for early adopters, they do nothing to clear up the mass consumer (or mainstream media) perception of a format war, so those folks still remain on the sidelines. In addition to that, universal players tend to cost more, which again doesn't affect early adopters that much but is one more strike against adoption by consumers at large, who are price sensitive.

As for porn... I've addressed that issue in the past, and you saw the Newsweek story posted above. Unlike the situation back in the days of VHS versus Betamax, cheap porn is already available everywhere on DVD and online. Porn is not going to decide this format war.

As I've said before, I like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc. They're both great - they both deliver the goods. But there just isn't room for TWO great formats. And at this point, I just don't see any likely circumstance in which HD-DVD can evolve into a viable mass market consumer video format. I certainly can't recommend in good conscience that Bits readers commit to HD-DVD right now. I tell most readers who ask me about the format war to just stick with DVD, and wait until it's all over. But if they're prepared to risk their money now, and are eager to do so, I have to tell them that Blu-ray is the better bet.

Frankly, I wish this format war had never happened. I am SO sick and tired of endlessly debating the merits of one of these formats versus the other. I'm tired of talking to reps for studios that are sitting on the fence or straddling both formats, who gamely spout the diplomatic company line about how great both formats are on the record, but off the record tell you how sick they all are of the situation and how much more hassle and headache it's caused them having to support THREE formats (including standard DVD). And I'm tired of watching early adopters backbiting each other at every turn. I'd rather just be talking about all the great films being released on disc in high-definition. I truly don't care which format wins, as long as one wins. But as long as there are two competing formats, we ALL lose. Period. The home video industry is not like videogaming. People do not have the patience for two or even three separate formats. They want to go to the store, buy a disc and know that it's going to work when they get home. It's that simple. They don't want to have to worry about having to buy the red box, or the blue box... or even the red AND blue box.

I'd hate for the high-definition video format war to have the same outcome as the high-resolution audio format war did. DVD-Audio versus SACD ended in a stalemate, and most people just stuck with CDs or moved to MP3 downloads. But mark my words, if the HD-DVD/Blu-ray war lingers on, that's exactly where we're headed. All you enthusiasts that have trenched in to support your particular format of choice come hell or high water had better enjoy the movies you're getting now, because if both formats fizzle out, forget about ever getting deep catalog, or older classics that cost money to restore for HD - money that would have come from software sales that aren't happening because too many people stubbornly stuck to their guns and the format war dragged out until nobody cared anymore. I think Stephen Colbert said it best when predicting the future of the HD format war: "The winner will be the one you DON'T buy." There could be a lot more "truthiness" in that statement than some want to believe.

For the good of the video industry as a whole, and for the benefit of film fans everywhere, this format war needs to end and SOON. So how long do we all have to wait before we start acknowledging the elephant in the room: One of these formats is already winning... and, for better or worse, it isn't HD-DVD.

Bill makes some interesting points on the upcoming introduction of cheap off-brand HD-DVD players into the market. But, I would add that the Chinese government is purportedly aiming to get out of the DVD market altogether in 2008 and apply its manufacturing capacity towards its homegrown EVD format. It would seem that their participation in the HD-DVD market is short-term, at best. This move by the HD-DVD camp to recruit off-brand manufacturers does seem like desperation because the whole point of manufacturer support for HD-DVD and Blu-ray in the first place was to address the profit erosion that the influx of off-brand DVD players created.

Groundbeef

02-15-2007, 05:53 PM

Woochifer

02-16-2007, 01:19 AM

Here is the only potential downside for the PS3 as I see it now. Currently BR is enjoying a sales burst, as it is bundled with the PS3.

But as Wooch has pointed out, many times, the percentage of HDTV owners versus PS3/Xbox 360 owners is not 1-1.

Here is the danger for PS3 as I see it. As a consumer, if I own a PS3 and a SD tv, I may/probably purchase 1 Blu-Ray to see what all the fuss is about. And guess what, it won't look any better on my SD tv, via my yellow video input that my regular old DVD does.
And so I wont buy another BR disk. And in my mind, I have now shut BR out of my buying concience for some time to come.

We will have to see if this burst of purchasing will be sustained. Like any product, initial sales are great, but is the continued buying/repurchasing that will determine your success. After all, you gotta try something once to decide if its worth doing again.

I don't see any downside to the Blu-ray/PS3 tie-in on the HD video side (contrastly, on the gaming side, Blu-ray has caused plenty of headaches), other than the problems that other manufacturers have in trying to justify the cost of more expensive Blu-ray players. Indeed, the PS3 created a sales burst, but also one that will likely continue and expand so long as PS3 sales continue to far outpace the HD-DVD player sales.

Even if the PS3 completely falls off the radar screen by year's end, it has already done its job in vaulting Blu-ray into the lead and keeping the Blu-ray exclusive manufacturers and studios firmly in the Blu-ray camp. If HD-DVD winds up having to rely on cheap off-brand players and porn to keep the format afloat, it very well might be on its last legs.

I think that the format war might even out a little bit if Microsoft decides to revise the Xbox 360 with an integrated HD-DVD drive and maintain the current price points. Otherwise, I think Blu-ray will continue to widen its lead with the PS3, and maybe even become more of a mainstream format if standalone Blu-ray player prices drop below $400 by year's end.

Groundbeef

02-16-2007, 06:52 AM

I don't see any downside to the Blu-ray/PS3 tie-in on the HD video side (contrastly, on the gaming side, Blu-ray has caused plenty of headaches), other than the problems that other manufacturers have in trying to justify the cost of more expensive Blu-ray players. Indeed, the PS3 created a sales burst, but also one that will likely continue and expand so long as PS3 sales continue to far outpace the HD-DVD player sales. .

Frankly, I don't see a big downside either, but the point still remains. Plenty of people that own PS3's/360's DONT have a HD-enabled TV. But plenty of those folks will buy at least 1 BR disk. The problem will be that on a SD TV with the yellow video cable, BR isn't going to "WOW" the viewer. At that point, how many of those folks are going to continue to purchase BR movies, if they don't dicern any difference? Thats where the potential to hurt BR comes in. Thats my only point.

I think that the format war might even out a little bit if Microsoft decides to revise the Xbox 360 with an integrated HD-DVD drive and maintain the current price points. Otherwise, I think Blu-ray will continue to widen its lead with the PS3, and maybe even become more of a mainstream format if standalone Blu-ray player prices drop below $400 by year's end.

I don't think that MS feels compelled to include HD or BR in the machine at this point. As I have said before, if worse comes to worse, and HD-DVD fails, MS will simply introduce an add-on BR player.

The DVD reads faster for games, and load times are less.

Woochifer

02-16-2007, 10:30 AM

Frankly, I don't see a big downside either, but the point still remains. Plenty of people that own PS3's/360's DONT have a HD-enabled TV. But plenty of those folks will buy at least 1 BR disk. The problem will be that on a SD TV with the yellow video cable, BR isn't going to "WOW" the viewer. At that point, how many of those folks are going to continue to purchase BR movies, if they don't dicern any difference? Thats where the potential to hurt BR comes in. Thats my only point.

A few months ago, I would have agreed with that point. But, apparently the holiday season saw steeper price cuts and higher unit sales on HDTVs than expected. At the start of last year, HDTV household penetration was well under 20%, and now it's apparently close to 1/3 of households with HDTVs now making up a rough majority of TV purchases. Since about 1/4 of households buy a new TV in any given year IIRC, it's actually possible that close to half of the households in North America will have HDTVs by the end of this year. By that time, the PS3 sales will likely start to hit their stride and the prices on Blu-ray players should tumble to more affordable levels. I don't think the benefits of Blu-ray will be so hidden at that point.

Also, I read somewhere that about half of HDTV owners use their TVs only for standard definition programming. For people in that category, seeing a Blu-ray (or HD-DVD) movie will be an eye-opening experience because their gaming console is their only HD source.

At this point, I'm still not sure how much of a shelf life Blu-ray will have. It all comes down to whether the format will take hold quickly enough to establish a strong niche alongside the DVD before on-demand programming goes HD.

nightflier

02-16-2007, 12:50 PM

Also, I read somewhere that about half of HDTV owners use their TVs only for standard definition programming. For people in that category, seeing a Blu-ray (or HD-DVD) movie will be an eye-opening experience because their gaming console is their only HD source.

I think that Groundbeef's argument is a meaty one (sorry I couldn't resist). There are basically three types of HDTV game console owners out there:

The 720p and less crowd (70% of game console owners?):

For these consumers, are the visual benefits of of BR on an average Costco/BB/CC-bought 720p display going to be noticeable compared to a decent 480p DVD player (considering that $100 DVD players are already quite decent)? If you consider that most of these consumers are using generic component video at best, and probably S-video for the majority, I don't think they'll see much of a difference.

The 1080i/p deep-pocket crowd (20%?):

These are the folks with fancy displays that they bought in the last two years - your BMW-owning suburban 2.3-kids yuppies who want to show off for their neighbors. They probably bought as soon as the new technology was here - which means they are probably using component video for the most part. Since they had the funds to buy the latest and greatest, they probably also had someone else install this and run wires through the walls. Will they buy new cables and have someone come in to re-route them through the walls?

Installers typically run multiple cable-types through the conduits for the same connection to cover all the bases. So do the owners even know if they are using the right one? And given that most consumer-grade conduit maxes out at 2", will there even be enough room in that conduit to add an HDMI or DVI cable after the fact, or will it even fit in there undamaged? Will these owners even consider: breaking open nicely finished walls, damaging fancy painted surfaces, ripping out expensive wood flooring, drilling through decorative baseboards and crown molding, all of it barely two years old, just for a format that is still not tested in the marketplace? Even though they like owning the latest & greatest, I don't know how many will take that plunge - after all, they did not become rich from making bad investments.

The techno-audio-video geeks (10%?):

These are the ones who will buy the latest & greatest, do extensive online / trade-rag research, and if they have to, save a long time to get the best techno-gadgets. Many of us probably fit in that crowd. But this crowd also knows from past experience (Betamax, DAT, Laserdisk, EDTV, DVD-A, HDTV-ready, name your poison), that they should let the market settle before buying. And they wait.

So who's buying those BR disks? That's right, it's the 720p and less crowd. Even if they see a slight improvement in picture quality, this is not worthy of major dollars to get it or go beyond it. These are the people that boosted BR sales over the holiday season to see what all the hoopla was about. But they saw little to justify more sales after the x-mas fever had died down. Aside from bragging rights over their friends, they will probably just go back to playing their favorite games.

The fact is, the biggest thorn in the side of the BR gamers camp, is the Xbox360. Maybe it was just that they came to market first, or maybe it's because the catalog is larger, who knows. The only thing Microsoft might have been threatened by was those PS die-harders who were willing to wait it out while the Xbox-ers were happily blowing stuff up, chopping things to bits and racing on during the last half of 2006. Yes, these die-hards bought a few BR disks, but, at least on the gaming side, this may only become a temporary blip on the BR/HD-DVD war radar and could very well fizzle out. Gamers are pissed about the format war and this irritation is making them less interested the potential benefits and may make them skip it all together in favor of downloadable HD content instead.

And I wouldn't dismiss the gaming console industry from the BR / HD-DVD war. I think they will make or break either format more than the stand-alone disk players will. They are typically at the bleeding edge of technology and if there is one thing I take away from Bill Hunt's comments, is that they may very well be the harbingers of the increasingly disaffected masses who will opt for neither technology and look elsewhere for their HD content.

Here's my question for anyone who has an in on the movie industry, what is the ratio of returned BR disks compared to HD-DVD disks? And anyone have an in with Blockbuster or Netflix - what are the rental numbers?

Who knows, I may be wrong about the gamer demographic. After all, I'm still shooting away on a borrowed last-generation gaming console - decent graphics with pre-pro matrixed surround sound, but it's enough for me. I'm going to wait it out - my current gear is good enough and I still have to save up to buy that 1080p TV.

But I doubt I'm the only one waiting it out.

Groundbeef

02-16-2007, 12:57 PM

At this point, I'm still not sure how much of a shelf life Blu-ray will have. It all comes down to whether the format will take hold quickly enough to establish a strong niche alongside the DVD before on-demand programming goes HD.

I think that day is coming faster than we can belive. I never thought I would give much thought to renting a movie off my 360. I have now rented 3, and am sold. Regular movies are about $3.00, and HD movies are $4.00. Thats not to bad considering DirectTV movies on demand are about $5.00 and an ADDITIONAL $5.00 if you want HD.

It's pretty easy, and affordable. For regular SD movies, it takes between 45min to 1 hour before you can start watching it without interruptions. HD movies can take a few hours for D/L. But if you plan a bit ahead, and rent ahead of when you need it, you have up to14 days to watch it.

From all media accounts MS 360 movie d/l is one of the most sucessful movie d/l services out there. It is even surpassing Amazon.com movie offerings.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117956232.html?categoryid=1009&cs=1&nid=2570

Scroll down a bit, for the article. Its pretty interesting.

Mr Peabody

02-16-2007, 05:30 PM

Yatta, yatta, yatta, Blu-ray will when because the name is cooler than HD-DVD. HD-DVD has too many D's and it's like saying 5 syllables, where Blu-ray just rolls off the tongue. And Blu-ray just sounds cooler. I mean they should have come up with something like the HD Super DVD or just Super DVD, or DVD-1080p, that rhymes. But HD-DVD will never win over Blu-ray. It's just too cool.

Just as a side note, we were watching a Disney flick and along with the normal trailers was a Blu-ray commercial.

Woochifer

02-16-2007, 06:59 PM

So who's buying those BR disks? That's right, it's the 720p and less crowd. Even if they see a slight improvement in picture quality, this is not worthy of major dollars to get it or go beyond it. These are the people that boosted BR sales over the holiday season to see what all the hoopla was about. But they saw little to justify more sales after the x-mas fever had died down. Aside from bragging rights over their friends, they will probably just go back to playing their favorite games.

The fact is, the biggest thorn in the side of the BR gamers camp, is the Xbox360. Maybe it was just that they came to market first, or maybe it's because the catalog is larger, who knows. The only thing Microsoft might have been threatened by was those PS die-harders who were willing to wait it out while the Xbox-ers were happily blowing stuff up, chopping things to bits and racing on during the last half of 2006. Yes, these die-hards bought a few BR disks, but, at least on the gaming side, this may only become a temporary blip on the BR/HD-DVD war radar and could very well fizzle out. Gamers are pissed about the format war and this irritation is making them less interested the potential benefits and may make them skip it all together in favor of downloadable HD content instead.

From my POV, I don't see the logic in this argument about the Blu-ray surge being some kind of temporary phenomenon. First off, it's not like PS3 console sales are a limited time phenomenon. Sony is continuing to make PS3s, and consumers continue to buy them. The net result is a continually increasing installed user base. Even if a certain percentage of PS3 owners buy a Blu-ray disc and stop right there, thousands of others continue to buy PS3s and many of them will use the consoles for their HD movie viewing.

And for those who bought the PS3, why would they be pissed off about the format war, when most of the top selling titles are exclusive to Blu-ray? Unless someone absolutely must own King Kong in HD, Blu-ray has the entire top 20 selling DVDs from 2006 out or coming out in that format.

I think in your effort to arbitrarily segment out the HDTV owners, you've missed the basic point that the vast majority of PS3 owners intend to use their gaming console as a disc player. And all the while, the enthusiast magazines generally find that the PS3's video performance is on par with the standalone players.

Another point that you're missing is just how far HDTV prices have fallen in the past few months. The price points have pushed so far downward that they basically blur the distinctions between all these groups. A typical 720p plasma cost more than $5,000 only two years ago. Now, they're readily available for less than $1,500. Meanwhile, that same $5,000 today will buy a fairly high end 1080p set with far better picture quality than was possible two years ago, and 1080p sets are easy to find for around $2,000 nowadays. Even if (or especially if) consumers still use these HDTVs for SD programming, plugging a PS3 and Blu-ray disc into that HDTV will reveal a whole different viewing experience. Since Blockbuster and Netflix are already renting Blu-ray discs, do you really think that even Joe6P will continue to rent DVDs if those same titles are available on Blu-ray?

And I wouldn't dismiss the gaming console industry from the BR / HD-DVD war. I think they will make or break either format more than the stand-alone disk players will. They are typically at the bleeding edge of technology and if there is one thing I take away from Bill Hunt's comments, is that they may very well be the harbingers of the increasingly disaffected masses who will opt for neither technology and look elsewhere for their HD content.

At the moment, the only gaming console that is making or breaking either format is the PS3. The other point that you are missing out on entirely is the studio support issue. Bill Hunt's conclusion about Blu-ray v. HD-DVD basically rests with the manufacturer and studio support, where Blu-ray has an undeniable advantage. The PS3 has given Blu-ray enough momentum for the manufacturers and studios to hold fast with their exclusive support for Blu-ray. No one's happy about the format war (except maybe Microsoft), and the verdict with most manufacturers and the content providers that control more than half the market is that the best way to end the format war quickly is to support only Blu-ray, and let HD-DVD wither on the vine. Microsoft might be able to muddy the waters by integrating the HD-DVD drive into the Xbox360, but I think their support of HD-DVD is half-hearted and two-faced at best.

Woochifer

02-16-2007, 07:11 PM

Bill Hunt did another follow-up commentary today that once again hits the point straight on. He goes further to say that as consumers we could help end the format war by putting pressure on Universal, which is really the key player in the HD-DVD camp, to go neutral. As I said earlier in this thread, if Universal goes neutral and starts releasing titles in both formats, Blu-ray's major studio support sits at 100% and the format war's effectively over.

The commentary also says that in Japan and Australia, the format war's almost over.

Anyway, here's the article. http://www.thedigitalbits.com/

Well... as expected, I've received a flood of e-mails over the last day or so in response to my high-def format war comments of yesterday. And as expected, those who have firmly attached themselves to HD-DVD weren't terribly pleased with my arguments. The interesting thing, however, is that none of these people could logically refute my reasoning, and very few even attempted to do so. In fact, while some of the responses from HD-DVD supporters were polite and thoughtful, most were defensive, overly emotional or even downright hostile. A couple e-mails were so nasty that I can only wonder at the mental stability of their authors. All of this suggests to me that even these people are starting to suspect that the writing is on the wall for HD-DVD.

I was pleasantly surprised, however, at how many readers responded to say that they generally agreed with my assessment of the situation. And it wasn't just Blu-ray supporters who reacted positively. A surprising number of retailers and industry insiders expressed relief that we had finally said what they WANTED to say, but weren't in a position to do so. I was also struck by how many people that agreed with my comments said they hadn't yet adopted either format, instead having decided to remain neutral until a choice was more clear. But many of those folks told us that they were now close to jumping into the high-def arena, and Blu-ray was where they were headed. The responses as a whole were certainly fascinating, and they have done nothing but convince me further that this format war needs to end now, before the early adopter market gets even more fractious and divisive.

So what, or who, could end this format war? Simple: Universal. If Universal were to suddenly announce support for Blu-ray Disc in addition to HD-DVD, or if they were to adopt Warner's TotalHD combo disc, that would be the end of it. You would suddenly have every major studio in town releasing Blu-ray titles (except for DreamWorks, and our sources tell us that the studio is simply waiting for one of these formats to start selling serious numbers before getting involved). By the end of the year, cheaper second generation Blu-ray hardware will available, and that's the ballgame. That's not to say that Microsoft and Toshiba would stop pushing HD-DVD anytime soon. And I'm sure some of the HD-DVD supporting studios would continue releasing titles, at least for a while. But why would any average consumer want to buy an HD-DVD player, even a very cheap one, when you can't get Disney movies, you can't get Pixar films, you can't get the Bond films, you can't get the Spider-Man films, etc, etc, etc. Universal has the power to end this format war tomorrow. We certainly hope a lot of people, both inside the industry and film fans as a whole, are making efforts to POLITELY convince them to do so. Here's how:

Universal Studios Home Video
70 Universal City Plaza
Universal City, CA 91608
(818) 777-4400
Studio website - E-mail form on website

While we're on the subject, here's more evidence of Blu-ray's advantage: Blu-ray almost completely dominates the Japanese market now (click here for more on that), and has a clear edge in the Australian market as well (click here). In fact, one of Australia's leading consumer electronics retailers, JB Hi-Fi, has announced that they won't even carry HD-DVD in their stores (click here). Why? Because they, like many others, simply don't see how HD-DVD can overcome the overwhelming studio support behind Blu-ray Disc. JB's marketing director, Scott Browning, put his company's position this way: "We don't want to be selling $1000 clocks." Ouch. Any way you slice it, this whole format war situation is just getting silly.

By the way, for you HD-DVD fans out there who are running around online today claiming that I'm somehow getting paid to endorse Blu-ray (rather than coming to the rather obvious logical conclusion all on my own), I'll bet you this: If, in the next few months, the HD-DVD camp suddenly gets all those Blu-ray exclusive studios to start releasing titles on their format, and if all those electronics manufacturers who have released Blu-ray players start releasing HD-DVD or combo players too, I'll will happily and publicly revise my opinion. I'll even exclude Sony on both counts. But I'm betting it isn't going to happen.

Dusty Chalk

02-17-2007, 04:28 AM

Yatta, yatta, yatta, Blu-ray will when because the name is cooler than HD-DVD. HD-DVD has too many D's and it's like saying 5 syllables, where Blu-ray just rolls off the tongue. And Blu-ray just sounds cooler. I mean they should have come up with something like the HD Super DVD or just Super DVD, or DVD-1080p, that rhymes. But HD-DVD will never win over Blu-ray. It's just too cool.You know, you may have been kidding (I laughed), but I still think there's some validity to that argument. At least as far as the public goes.

nightflier

02-18-2007, 03:15 PM

I think in your effort to arbitrarily segment out the HDTV owners, you've missed the basic point that the vast majority of PS3 owners intend to use their gaming console as a disc player.

That's a curious statement. I'm going to just shoot in the dark, here, but I'd rather think that the majority of PS3 owners will be using them to play games - after all that's what its primary function is, right? And then there's the very real threat of downloadable content. And that's an important point: on the one hand Sony has an incentive to hobble downloadable content to further the BR platform, but on the other hand, this would mean that they will be missing out on the next technology revolution that this medium is. And it is clear that the Xbox360 isn't too worried about this, especially because the HD-DVD player is an add-on option, just as downloadable content is an option. In that respect, Microsoft will take advantage of whichever format wins (that is, between HD-DVD and downloadable content.

And all the while, the enthusiast magazines generally find that the PS3's video performance is on par with the standalone players.

Well, for video quality, maybe, but that's tied into video functionality, which is irritatingly hobbled. Of primary concern is that the PS3 cannot downconvert 1080p to 720p. This may seem trivial, but for the vast majority of HDTVs out there that max out at 720p (think Panasonic's 2005-2006 crop), that's a real problem. Another issue, that I attribute to an arbitrary restriction that Sony is imposing to try and sell more BR disks, it cannot upconvert standard DVDs to anything above 480p. This means that for standard DVD playback, most $100 players (that most everyone owns already anyhow), will be just fine. This makes the real world advantage of owning a PS3 for movie playback a lot less attractive. And it's not just movies, what about all the new DVD-based games that are capable of 720p and 1080i resolution? But this fandangled PS3 won't upconvert them because the game is not burned onto a friggin BR disk. Yes, this pisses off your average gamer! Microsoft's Xbox360 will upconvert anything to 1080i, even over component video. This is another example of Sony's short-sighted proprietary format policies that make so many people look elsewhere.

Another point that you're missing is just how far HDTV prices have fallen in the past few months...Now, they're readily available for less than $1,500.

While I know prices have fallen, they are still not reaching the sweet spot, which is under $1000, IMO. For most middle-class families, if they have to choose between a $1500 1080p tv and a $1000 720p tv, they will buy the latter. I know that these prices are murder on the manufacturers, but the truth is that the American middle class is struggling to make ends meet, living on borrowed money if not paycheck-to-paycheck.

Even if (or especially if) consumers still use these HDTVs for SD programming, plugging a PS3 and Blu-ray disc into that HDTV will reveal a whole different viewing experience.

If you're referring to a 720p hdtv, then the PS3 is going to be a problem - see my comments above.

Since Blockbuster and Netflix are already renting Blu-ray discs, do you really think that even Joe6P will continue to rent DVDs if those same titles are available on Blu-ray?

Yes, I think Joe6p will continue to rent DVDs, if he has an upconverting Xbox360.:)

Seriously, though, if you have some figures on what HD formats people are renting, I would be very curious to know what they are since I'm going to guess that it's a dead heat between the two formats. Correct me if I'm wrong. Anyhow, I am no longer a member, so I can't check this, but according to the website FAQ, Blockbuster is just renting HD-DVD disks at this time and BR is still not available. Netflix, on the other hand has both. Not to muddy the waters with another tangent, here, but I also read that Netflix is partnering with a downloadable content provider and to add this as a service for their subscribers. This is probably an effort to take back the lead from Blockbuster, but my guess is that if it works, Blockbuster will probably do the same. In any case, this would not be good for disks sales of either format.

I'll go out on a limb here and make this prediction: BR may "win" in the disks format war, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory, much as SACD "won" the war against DVD-A. They will become marginal hi-end formats for hobbyists and downloadable content will become the standard way for the middle class to rent movies. This is just a best guess and I may very well be wrong, but just as any war that has lasted too long, this one will also make people forget the merits of either side.

Woochifer

02-19-2007, 01:23 PM

That's a curious statement. I'm going to just shoot in the dark, here, but I'd rather think that the majority of PS3 owners will be using them to play games - after all that's what its primary function is, right? And then there's the very real threat of downloadable content. And that's an important point: on the one hand Sony has an incentive to hobble downloadable content to further the BR platform, but on the other hand, this would mean that they will be missing out on the next technology revolution that this medium is. And it is clear that the Xbox360 isn't too worried about this, especially because the HD-DVD player is an add-on option, just as downloadable content is an option. In that respect, Microsoft will take advantage of whichever format wins (that is, between HD-DVD and downloadable content.

Have you actually read any of my other posts on this thread or do I have to keep repeating myself?

Sure, PS3 owners are buying them for gaming, but AS I SAID BEFORE a survey of 10,000 PS3 owners indicates that 80% of them intend to purchase Blu-ray movies, and 75% of them intend to use the console as their primary disc viewing device.

And the downloading issue, well, I've mentioned that many times as well. BOTH HD disc formats are in a race to get the formats established in the market before HD downloading becomes commonplace. But, right now Blu-ray is the only one that is in position to actually get it done. And it's not just Sony, it's the entire Blu-ray Association, which includes many manufacturers and studios.

And you're also forgetting that if HD downloading takes off, Sony would still be a beneficiary since their movie studios control roughly 15-20% of the market.

Well, for video quality, maybe, but that's tied into video functionality, which is irritatingly hobbled. Of primary concern is that the PS3 cannot downconvert 1080p to 720p. This may seem trivial, but for the vast majority of HDTVs out there that max out at 720p (think Panasonic's 2005-2006 crop), that's a real problem.

Nope, you got that wrong. It's only those HDTVs that lack native support for 720p (like the older consumer-market Panasonic plasmas) that have problems with the PS3. Those older Panasonic plasmas from 3+ years ago only had 1080i. Sony supposedly has a firmware update on the way that will fix this issue.

Another issue, that I attribute to an arbitrary restriction that Sony is imposing to try and sell more BR disks, it cannot upconvert standard DVDs to anything above 480p. This means that for standard DVD playback, most $100 players (that most everyone owns already anyhow), will be just fine. This makes the real world advantage of owning a PS3 for movie playback a lot less attractive.

Why would that be an arbitrary restriction? A DVD's NATIVE resolution is 480p, and the PS3 is outputting the signal in its NATIVE resolution. Since almost everybody already owns a DVD player (most of which do not upscale), why would the lack of upscaling make the PS3 some kind of plot on the part of "Sony" to try and sell more Blu-ray discs (and again, it's not just Sony that sells Blu-ray)? I got news for you -- the WHOLE POINT of including Blu-ray with the PS3 was to promote the format!

But, from your point of view, that's some kind of conspiracy because Sony's lack of video scaling is intended to make DVDs look bad by comparison. Sorry, but that's an almost laughable stretch.

And it's not just movies, what about all the new DVD-based games that are capable of 720p and 1080i resolution? But this fandangled PS3 won't upconvert them because the game is not burned onto a friggin BR disk. Yes, this pisses off your average gamer! Microsoft's Xbox360 will upconvert anything to 1080i, even over component video. This is another example of Sony's short-sighted proprietary format policies that make so many people look elsewhere.

I think you're getting way too wound up about this whole upconversion issue. Just because something gets upconverted does absolutely nothing to change the native resolution. That Xbox 360 might upconvert to 1080i, but that does not magically transform the lower resolution material into something that it's not.

While I know prices have fallen, they are still not reaching the sweet spot, which is under $1000, IMO. For most middle-class families, if they have to choose between a $1500 1080p tv and a $1000 720p tv, they will buy the latter. I know that these prices are murder on the manufacturers, but the truth is that the American middle class is struggling to make ends meet, living on borrowed money if not paycheck-to-paycheck.

Right, but these price points also totally bust that arbitrary categorization that you created trying to somehow dismiss the potential audience for Blu-ray movies. You were saying that the majority of the PS3-owners who purchase Blu-ray discs would be 720p HDTV owners. Yet, current HDTV prices are roughly 40% lower than they were a year ago. Are you saying that the people who bought their HDTVs last year are more upscale than this year's HDTV buyers because they spent more for a lower performing TV last year? Or are this year's HDTV buyers lower on your scale because they spent less to get basically the same TV?

Seriously, though, if you have some figures on what HD formats people are renting, I would be very curious to know what they are since I'm going to guess that it's a dead heat between the two formats. Correct me if I'm wrong. Anyhow, I am no longer a member, so I can't check this, but according to the website FAQ, Blockbuster is just renting HD-DVD disks at this time and BR is still not available. Netflix, on the other hand has both. Not to muddy the waters with another tangent, here, but I also read that Netflix is partnering with a downloadable content provider and to add this as a service for their subscribers. This is probably an effort to take back the lead from Blockbuster, but my guess is that if it works, Blockbuster will probably do the same. In any case, this would not be good for disks sales of either format.

Once again, you're ignoring the most basic structural advantage that's driving Blu-ray into a potentially insurmountable lead -- the format's studio support. If HD-DVD's in a dead heat as you assume, that's a byproduct of HD-DVD's 6+ month headstart in the market. The PS3 has been on the market less than 3 months, and Blu-ray has already opened up a 2-to-1 sales advantage. Why would the rental market be any different? With a smaller release slate and a smaller installed user base, how do you see any scenario where HD-DVD can sustain even a dead heat?

I'll go out on a limb here and make this prediction: BR may "win" in the disks format war, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory, much as SACD "won" the war against DVD-A. They will become marginal hi-end formats for hobbyists and downloadable content will become the standard way for the middle class to rent movies. This is just a best guess and I may very well be wrong, but just as any war that has lasted too long, this one will also make people forget the merits of either side.

Not really going out on a limb since I had already indicated it as a possibility. What I've been saying all along is that the Blu-ray camp is trying to get a quick knockout on HD-DVD because they're aware of HD downloading and on-demand on the horizon. Whether they'll be able to get it done remains to be seen.

nightflier

02-20-2007, 11:03 AM

Nope, you got that wrong. It's only those HDTVs that lack native support for 720p (like the older consumer-market Panasonic plasmas) that have problems with the PS3. Those older Panasonic plasmas from 3+ years ago only had 1080i. Sony supposedly has a firmware update on the way that will fix this issue.

No actually I got that right: "it cannot downconvert 1080p to 720p" (http://www.ultimateavmag.com/hddiscplayers/1206ps3blu/index1.html). This is a big issue, because the majority of this thread has been based on the idea that the average PS3 owner with a 720p HDTV display (the vast majority of them out there are 720p) will actually see a difference when viewing their first BR disk. If the PS3 can only downconvert that wonderful 1080p image to 480p, what's the difference between that and a good DVD player playing a standard DVD? I haven't actually seen this, but I'm going to guess that there won't be much to gawk over.

And while I don't necessarily think the inability to upconvert standard DVD movies is a key issue, it definitely is an issue for gamers: "Although some games like NBA '07 are encoded to output at 720p, 1080i, or 1080p, many current games are encoded at and for 720p output only, and the PS3 cannot upconvert these to 1080i or 1080p" (same article). I'm going to guess that when comparing his favorite game on the PS3 and the Xbox360, Joe6p is going to pick the less expensive Xbox360.

Why would that be an arbitrary restriction? A DVD's NATIVE resolution is 480p, and the PS3 is outputting the signal in its NATIVE resolution... But, from your point of view, that's some kind of conspiracy because Sony's lack of video scaling is intended to make DVDs look bad by comparison. Sorry, but that's an almost laughable stretch.

What is laughable is the idea that a major multinational corporation would have the best interest of a single consumer at heart. All they care about is profits on a global scale.

Back to my point, it is arbitrary because the inability to upconvert standard DVD beyond 480p is not found on any other manufacturer's player, especially any HD-DVD player. Just as it is arbitrary to restrict higher resolutions on component outputs (this inability has to be added to the technology - at extra cost- not removed), Sony is doing this to further their format. Conspiracy, no, because a conspiracy requires more than one player. But when Sony, with interests in thousands of markets all over the world, makes this decision from the top, it makes you wonder about fairness. If the technology is there and I am not breaking any laws in wanting to upconvert my DVDs & DVD based games, why should Sony prevent me from doing this?

Right, but these price points also totally bust that arbitrary categorization that you created trying to somehow dismiss the potential audience for Blu-ray movies. You were saying that the majority of the PS3-owners who purchase Blu-ray discs would be 720p HDTV owners. Yet, current HDTV prices are roughly 40% lower than they were a year ago. Are you saying that the people who bought their HDTVs last year are more upscale than this year's HDTV buyers because they spent more for a lower performing TV last year? Or are this year's HDTV buyers lower on your scale because they spent less to get basically the same TV?

No I think you misunderstood:

- The vast majority of HDTVs currently in people's homes are 720p. These people will not be buying a new 1080p TV because they are still paying the 720p TV off. I seriously doubt too many people have the coin to buy a new $2500 1080p HDTV, a $600 PS3, $100 cables, a few BR disks, and some PS3 native games in one purchase. The majority of people buying PS3s are barely able to afford it and will be adding it to existing systems, thus 480i, 480p, and 720p TVs.

- Prices are low, but not low enough to compete on a level playing field with Xbos360. The fact that the latter does not require a new TV to get most of the advantages, is a real PS3 deal-breaker for many people.

Once again, you're ignoring the most basic structural advantage that's driving Blu-ray into a potentially insurmountable lead -- the format's studio support. If HD-DVD's in a dead heat as you assume, that's a byproduct of HD-DVD's 6+ month headstart in the market. The PS3 has been on the market less than 3 months, and Blu-ray has already opened up a 2-to-1 sales advantage. Why would the rental market be any different? With a smaller release slate and a smaller installed user base, how do you see any scenario where HD-DVD can sustain even a dead heat?

Well you're the one with your finger on the pulse. Let's see some rental numbers. I think that this will also give us a good idea of what people are playing them on. If it's a dead heat, doesn't that also mean that about 1/2 of these renters have HD-DVD players in their homes? Another point: If they are about the same, then does that not mean that the 2-to-1 sales increase in the last three months simply allowed the BR camps to play catch-up? So let's see those rental numbers.

Studio support? Well again, I don't have the numbers, but the way it looks from a realist perspective is that Sony supports BR exclusively, Universal supports HD-DVD exclusively, and I don't remember what the other studios are doing, but from what I gather, most of them are releasing in both formats. Is this a commanding lead? Your numbers say so, but again, it's still early. Given that HD-DVD disks are easier and less expensive to produce, that HD-DVD players are less expensive, and that the Xbox360 is squarely in the HD-DVD camp for now, these sales figures could still change.

And here's another question: how many BR & HD-DVD disks have sold compared to standard DVDs? 10%? 5%? 1%? After all, maybe we've been splitting hairs on this thread for something that just represents a very small share of the market. And if so, then that also means that downloadable HD content has a very good chance of eclipsing both formats before they make a dent. Everything I'm reading is that the days of physically owning music and movie disks are fast disappearing. Everyone seems to agree that subscription-based high-quantity low-quality mass-produced content is the future of home A/V. Maybe this whole debate is pointless.

All I'm saying is that the verdict is not in yet. To proclaim that it is, is an underhanded way of pushing one format over the other.

hermanv

02-20-2007, 11:38 AM

This forum is about opinions, one moderator is battling like a paid schill for Sony, gosh, the number of hours invested in those careful edits....

My opinions:
1. I read that Blu-Ray has only a 1 mil protective layer as opposed to HD-DVD being identical to Redbook at 4(or was it 6?) mil. I have saved a surprising number of CDs that no longer played reliably with my little CD polish kit. After paying upwards of $30 for a movie that can be permanently destroyed by ordinary wear and tear, I for one will not be a happy camper.

2. Sony is one of the more predatory large companies currently making consumer products, reason enough to stay away from anything they promote. If you read the various forums they often refuse to honor warranties these days. I guess if your seriously overpriced Blu-Ray dies, you could just toss it and get another.

3. Didn't Sony promise to support SACD?

4. Anyone who would install illegal and damaging software on your computer without your permission doesn't deserve your business.

Woochifer

02-20-2007, 12:49 PM

No actually I got that right: "it cannot downconvert 1080p to 720p" (http://www.ultimateavmag.com/hddiscplayers/1206ps3blu/index1.html). This is a big issue, because the majority of this thread has been based on the idea that the average PS3 owner with a 720p HDTV display (the vast majority of them out there are 720p) will actually see a difference when viewing their first BR disk. If the PS3 can only downconvert that wonderful 1080p image to 480p, what's the difference between that and a good DVD player playing a standard DVD? I haven't actually seen this, but I'm going to guess that there won't be much to gawk over.

I think we're talking about two separate issues here. The compatibility problem that I pointed out with the older Panny plasmas was a glitch that occurred because those TVs lacked native support for 720p. The screens had a native resolution of 1024 x 768, yet they scaled all of the HD signals, including native 720p signals, to 1080i. For whatever reason, those models could not properly display the HD signal from the PS3. In today's arbitrary marketing terminology, those older Panny plasmas would be considered "720p" because of the resolution even though they had no native support for the 720p mode.

The issue of downconverting 1080p to 720p is not significant because the PS3 does downconvert to 1080i, and any HDTV on the market, including those with a native horizontal resolution of 768 lines (the ones that are marketed as "720p"), will readily display a 1080i signal. If you're saying that the PS3 has compatibility problems with all "720p" displays, then this issue would extend to all components such as HD tuners and satellite receivers that natively output 1080i signals. I see no such problem among those components.

What is laughable is the idea that a major multinational corporation would have the best interest of a single consumer at heart. All they care about is profits on a global scale.

Okay, so name me a large multinational company that does not care about profits on a global scale. Where do I ever say that they have the best interests of "a single consumer at heart"?

Back to my point, it is arbitrary because the inability to upconvert standard DVD beyond 480p is not found on any other manufacturer's player, especially any HD-DVD player. Just as it is arbitrary to restrict higher resolutions on component outputs (this inability has to be added to the technology - at extra cost- not removed), Sony is doing this to further their format. Conspiracy, no, because a conspiracy requires more than one player. But when Sony, with interests in thousands of markets all over the world, makes this decision from the top, it makes you wonder about fairness. If the technology is there and I am not breaking any laws in wanting to upconvert my DVDs & DVD based games, why should Sony prevent me from doing this?

Again, no one's forcing you to buy something if it lacks a feature that you absolutely must have. All of the standalone Blu-ray players will do all of the scaling that you want, and by next year, they'll likely be cheaper than the PS3. Please spare the histrionics because Sony's not "preventing" you from doing anything. If you absolutely must have DVD upscaling, Sony's not "preventing" you from buying a disc player with that capability. The PS3 is already the lowest priced Blu-ray player on the market, so I don't see any merit to your rantings about "fairness." If Sony's not providing you with what you want, respond like any rational consumer -- don't buy their product.

- The vast majority of HDTVs currently in people's homes are 720p. These people will not be buying a new 1080p TV because they are still paying the 720p TV off. I seriously doubt too many people have the coin to buy a new $2500 1080p HDTV, a $600 PS3, $100 cables, a few BR disks, and some PS3 native games in one purchase. The majority of people buying PS3s are barely able to afford it and will be adding it to existing systems, thus 480i, 480p, and 720p TVs.

Actually the majority of HDTVs have a native horizontal resolution of 768 lines. Those HDTVs are all perfectly capable of supporting a 1080i. Otherwise, why bother plugging any plasma set (which except for one Pioneer model, are all limited to 768 lines) into a 1080i set-top box (like a satellite receiver or digital cable box)? It's just easier for the marketing gurus to use the 720p shorthand to separate those sets with 768 lines from those with 1,080 lines.

Well you're the one with your finger on the pulse. Let's see some rental numbers. I think that this will also give us a good idea of what people are playing them on. If it's a dead heat, doesn't that also mean that about 1/2 of these renters have HD-DVD players in their homes? Another point: If they are about the same, then does that not mean that the 2-to-1 sales increase in the last three months simply allowed the BR camps to play catch-up? So let's see those rental numbers.

Studio support? Well again, I don't have the numbers, but the way it looks from a realist perspective is that Sony supports BR exclusively, Universal supports HD-DVD exclusively, and I don't remember what the other studios are doing, but from what I gather, most of them are releasing in both formats. Is this a commanding lead? Your numbers say so, but again, it's still early. Given that HD-DVD disks are easier and less expensive to produce, that HD-DVD players are less expensive, and that the Xbox360 is squarely in the HD-DVD camp for now, these sales figures could still change.

At the risk of repeating myself, here you go YET AGAIN. Among the 6 major studios, Fox (which distributes for MGM), Disney, AND Sony support Blu-ray EXCLUSIVELY. Together, they control MORE THAN HALF of the domestic box office. Paramount and Warner are neutral which means that they issue discs in BOTH formats. ONLY Universal supports HD-DVD exclusively.

Among last year's top 20 DVD titles, 19 of them are available (or will be) on Blu-ray. 16 of these are Blu-ray exclusives. Only 4 of last year's top 20 DVD titles are available (or will be) on HD-DVD. King Kong is the only top 20 title that is currently a HD-DVD exclusive.

You can ask for all the rental data you want, but the titles will ultimately drive the rentals. Hard to win a format war when most of the titles people are looking for are available in one format, but not the other. No different than in the mid-80s when frustrated Betamax owners would have to sift through the much smaller sections that video stores set aside for the Beta titles.

And here's another question: how many BR & HD-DVD disks have sold compared to standard DVDs? 10%? 5%? 1%? After all, maybe we've been splitting hairs on this thread for something that just represents a very small share of the market. And if so, then that also means that downloadable HD content has a very good chance of eclipsing both formats before they make a dent. Everything I'm reading is that the days of physically owning music and movie disks are fast disappearing. Everyone seems to agree that subscription-based high-quantity low-quality mass-produced content is the future of home A/V. Maybe this whole debate is pointless.

At the moment, it's a very small market, but one that's due to grow significantly as HDTV penetration finally reaches a critical mass. I don't doubt that HD downloading and on-demand is the wave of the future. But, the question is whether the new disc formats will get a foothold in the market before the on-demand services get off the ground.

All I'm saying is that the verdict is not in yet. To proclaim that it is, is an underhanded way of pushing one format over the other.

And I've not said that it's over. But, at the same time I'd like you or anyone else to try and outline a scenario where HD-DVD can win this format war, because between the hardware support, studio support, and sales trends, the market data is all pointing in favor of Blu-ray. IMO, the best that HD-DVD can hope for at this point is a draw, and for Toshiba and Microsoft, that's probably as good as a win for them.

Woochifer

02-20-2007, 01:14 PM

This forum is about opinions, one moderator is battling like a paid schill for Sony, gosh, the number of hours invested in those careful edits....

Uh, which MODERATOR would you be referring to?

My opinions:
1. I read that Blu-Ray has only a 1 mil protective layer as opposed to HD-DVD being identical to Redbook at 4(or was it 6?) mil. I have saved a surprising number of CDs that no longer played reliably with my little CD polish kit. After paying upwards of $30 for a movie that can be permanently destroyed by ordinary wear and tear, I for one will not be a happy camper.

Potentially big issue for anyone who intends to rent Blu-ray discs. Panasonic supposedly worked through various issues with the protective layer, but I have no idea how it will play out through normal wear and tear.

2. Sony is one of the more predatory large companies currently making consumer products, reason enough to stay away from anything they promote. If you read the various forums they often refuse to honor warranties these days. I guess if your seriously overpriced Blu-Ray dies, you could just toss it and get another.

Or just buy a player from someone else, after all Sony's not the only member of the Blu-ray Association. No different than Toshiba and Warner developing the DVD format, and a whole consortium of manufacturers participating in the DVD Forum.

3. Didn't Sony promise to support SACD?

SACD is built into all of Sony's Blu-ray players (including the PS3), and is part of the HDMI 1.2 and 1.3 specs. The hardware support is still there. The music releases are a different story.

4. Anyone who would install illegal and damaging software on your computer without your permission doesn't deserve your business.

You mean Microsoft? :ciappa:

hermanv

02-20-2007, 02:55 PM

You mean Microsoft? :ciappa: True, but ordinary incompetence, mostly unintentional. The Sony debacle was intentional.

nightflier

02-20-2007, 03:26 PM

But, at the same time I'd like you or anyone else to try and outline a scenario where HD-DVD can win this format war

OK, I'll lay out this scenario:

Microsoft drops the price of their external drive to $99 and includes a coupon for a free HD-DVD movie.

After Vista sales ramp up, Microsoft will have the liquid cash to be able to do this, especially if Toshiba assists in manufacturing the drives. If you consider that HD-DVD movies are less expensive to produce and that HD-DVD players will always be less expensive because of their 6-month lead, this could definitely change the outcome of this war. Also consider that:

- Anyone with component-only or a 720p-max TV will be able to benefit right away, without having to purchase a new TV, cables, or anything else.

- The xBox external drive can also be used on PCs, Laptops, Media Servers or any other device that has USB. This brings HD-DVD to new platforms.

- Microsoft Windows MediaCenter Edition is the most popular platform for PC to AV integrated systems. Even PC companies staunchly in the BR camp, are still building Windows-based systems because there really is no other platform with any traction there (I've tried building my own with Linux, and well, let's just say that it wasn't a great success).

Bottom line is: the HD-DVD camp could very easily dump product at prices that the BR camp can not and will not compete with. Let's be honest, does Sony's track record indicate a company that will license its own technology below cost to win this? No. They will do everything they can to squeeze as much out of BR licensing that they can. Fact is, Microsoft is willing and able to stoop much lower to win this, while Sony is already so deep in the gutter that it can't afford to go lower in the public eye.

You also keep saying that HD-DVD only had 4 of the the top 20 titles. Does that mean that next year it will be the same? So they had a bad year, that does not mean that next year we will see the same ratio. And given that it's easier to produce HD-DVD disks, couldn't Universal accelerate HD-DVD releases of older movies in their catalog? You said that you can't understand why Universal won't go neutral. Maybe it's because they don't see this battle as lost.

Let's return to this topic in a year. Maybe I will be completely wrong on my misgivings about BR being the winner. Fine, I'll accept that. But if I'm right and BR never becomes the dominant format, I'd like to know that a few more people were wise enough to wait it out because they read about it here.

hermanv

02-20-2007, 05:14 PM

I'm with you nightflier, lets not be that quick to declare the competition dead.

Remember when Sony was writing their own movie reviews and pretending it was from an independent reviewer? Are they at it again?

Loading the deck with false information is a know modus operandi for these folks. When I look at the number of titles carried by the big box retailers for each format, I see very similar total numbers. My video rental store carries roughly equal numbers of the two formats.

Plus the public is tired of format wars, I think they'll stay away in droves. If the game consoles are really leading the charge on this one, then the number of movie studios signed up become just another ho hum data point.

If the dual format players drop to $750 (my guess) there will not be a clear winner early in the race (as Blu-Ray so desperately want's us all to believe), both formats will slug it out with the eventual win going to the technology, ease of use and low cost leader.

drseid

02-21-2007, 02:14 AM

SACD is built into all of Sony's Blu-ray players (including the PS3),

Not in my BDP-S1...

I, for the record, am still in the "both formats will coexist" camp. HD DVD is far from dead.

---Dave

Woochifer

02-21-2007, 10:05 AM

OK, I'll lay out this scenario:

Microsoft drops the price of their external drive to $99 and includes a coupon for a free HD-DVD movie.

After Vista sales ramp up, Microsoft will have the liquid cash to be able to do this, especially if Toshiba assists in manufacturing the drives. If you consider that HD-DVD movies are less expensive to produce and that HD-DVD players will always be less expensive because of their 6-month lead, this could definitely change the outcome of this war. Also consider that:

- Anyone with component-only or a 720p-max TV will be able to benefit right away, without having to purchase a new TV, cables, or anything else.

- The xBox external drive can also be used on PCs, Laptops, Media Servers or any other device that has USB. This brings HD-DVD to new platforms.

- Microsoft Windows MediaCenter Edition is the most popular platform for PC to AV integrated systems. Even PC companies staunchly in the BR camp, are still building Windows-based systems because there really is no other platform with any traction there (I've tried building my own with Linux, and well, let's just say that it wasn't a great success).

Bottom line is: the HD-DVD camp could very easily dump product at prices that the BR camp can not and will not compete with.

The scenario you're laying out has only to do with dumping cheap hardware onto the market (and it will happen since Toshiba's rushing to get outsource manufacturers to flood the market with cheap off-brand HD-DVD players), and Microsoft's "generosity." Problem is that it does absolutely nothing to address HD-DVD's lack of studio support. While it might persuade Fox and/or Disney to go neutral, and in effect prolong the format war indefinitely, it does nothing to actually knock Blu-ray out.

Let's be honest, does Sony's track record indicate a company that will license its own technology below cost to win this? No. They will do everything they can to squeeze as much out of BR licensing that they can. Fact is, Microsoft is willing and able to stoop much lower to win this, while Sony is already so deep in the gutter that it can't afford to go lower in the public eye.

What do you mean by "license its own technology below cost"? Do you actually know what the licensing costs are right now? No.

How is the cost structure for Blu-ray players any different than with the first DVD players, which were also very expensive at the outset? If the 1st gen Samsung players are already selling for below $700, would it not stand to reason that the unit costs will continue to go down, particularly as unit production on the BD-ROM drives (which is currently the most expensive component) increases? Toshiba already subsidized the first round of HD-DVD players, just as Sony is currently subsidizing the PS3. BOTH companies have already sold players for below unit cost, but that does not mean that either company is taking a bath on the licensing end.

You also keep saying that HD-DVD only had 4 of the the top 20 titles. Does that mean that next year it will be the same? So they had a bad year, that does not mean that next year we will see the same ratio. And given that it's easier to produce HD-DVD disks, couldn't Universal accelerate HD-DVD releases of older movies in their catalog? You said that you can't understand why Universal won't go neutral. Maybe it's because they don't see this battle as lost.

Quite the contrary, I outlined a very logical reason why Universal potentially won't go neutral -- because Microsoft is one of their stakeholders. Try reading my posts.

As far as the top 20 goes, I think the more significant figure is that 16 of those titles are Blu-ray EXCLUSIVES. It doesn't mean that 2007 will skew to this extreme in favor of Blu-ray, but the fact that Blu-ray has 5 out of the 6 major studios (6 out of 7 if you include MGM) in its camp is a very strong indicator that they will cover the vast majority of the best selling titles once again. Universal alone cannot carry HD-DVD, if it's up against 3 (or 4 if you count MGM) major studios that only support Blu-ray.

With library titles, Universal already announced a slate of 100 HD-DVD titles, but that still pales in comparison to what Fox, Disney, and Sony have coming out on Blu-ray. And this year Warner will also start releasing Blu-ray discs for titles that they already issued on HD-DVD.

Let's return to this topic in a year. Maybe I will be completely wrong on my misgivings about BR being the winner. Fine, I'll accept that. But if I'm right and BR never becomes the dominant format, I'd like to know that a few more people were wise enough to wait it out because they read about it here.

It's fine to have your misgivings, but that's looking at the market from the vantage point of how you would like things to play out, rather than objectively seeing how the market trends are actually shaping up. I've stated repeatedly on this thread and others, that the only plausible scenarios IMO are 1) Blu-ray winning outright; 2) both formats coexisting; or 3) both formats flaming out. At the moment, the market has shifted more towards Blu-ray because its structural advantages are starting to show up in the sales trends. HD-DVD winning outright is simply not plausible without dramatic structural changes to the market that are unlikely to happen.

Woochifer

02-21-2007, 10:49 AM

I'm with you nightflier, lets not be that quick to declare the competition dead.

Remember when Sony was writing their own movie reviews and pretending it was from an independent reviewer? Are they at it again?

Maybe you should try reading the thread and the articles I linked to. The sales trends are reported by Nielson Videoscan. Until the trend data based on actual sales started coming out, you had nothing but claims and counterclaims by both sides. Now, you got something objective to chew on.

Until the sales data came out and Fox and Disney reiterated their support for Blu-ray, I was more of the opinion that both formats would somehow coexist because Broadcom had already announced a dual-format video decoder and LG and Samsung were well on their way to developing dual-format drives. But, with the studio support for Blu-ray standing firm, and now with the installed user base also swinging in favor of Blu-ray, HD-DVD is at a big disadvantage.

Loading the deck with false information is a know modus operandi for these folks. When I look at the number of titles carried by the big box retailers for each format, I see very similar total numbers. My video rental store carries roughly equal numbers of the two formats.

And like nightflier, you're basing your opinion on what you see in stores and HD-DVD's 6+ month headstart, not on the release schedule and not on the actual sales data.

Plus the public is tired of format wars, I think they'll stay away in droves. If the game consoles are really leading the charge on this one, then the number of movie studios signed up become just another ho hum data point.

The public indeed is tired of format wars, but so are the studios, manufacturers, and retailers. That's exactly why the Blu-ray Association companies are now going all out basically marginalize HD-DVD. The PS3 is already outselling Toshiba's HD-DVD players by more than 10-to-1. The PS3 introduction vaulted Blu-ray into a 2-to-1 lead in disc sales that will likely increase with Blu-ray's much larger release schedule. This has been crucial to keeping the Blu-ray Association members from venturing over to the HD-DVD side. If you'll recall, before the PS3 was announced with the Blu-ray support, the major studios were evenly divided. After the PS3 announcement, Warner and Paramount declared themselves neutral, so the goings on the gaming side have been very consequential.

By the time Blu-ray players go down to more affordable prices, Blu-ray will likely have a decided advantage with more titles on store shelves, and more manufacturers selling Blu-ray players.

I think HD playback will take off within the next year or two, because I think 50% HDTV household penetration by the end of this year is not out of the question. Whether that will involve disc media or downloads remains to be seen.

If the dual format players drop to $750 (my guess) there will not be a clear winner early in the race (as Blu-Ray so desperately want's us all to believe), both formats will slug it out with the eventual win going to the technology, ease of use and low cost leader.

But, if the studio support maintains heavily in favor of Blu-ray, then the absolute best case scenario for HD-DVD is a draw, with a Blu-ray victory still more likely.

I suggest you go back and read Bill Hunt's commentaries that I posted and linked to (the tenor of your posts suggests that you haven't). He has laid out a very logical and persuasive view of how the market is actually shaping up. He concludes that Blu-ray is likelier to win the format war based on what is actually happening in the market and what has been scheduled, not because he's some schill for Sony. IMO, he's about as credible a source on this topic as anyone because of his long-standing track record for getting things right and because he's been following the topic from the beginning.

Woochifer

02-21-2007, 11:18 AM

Not in my BDP-S1...

Yep, you're right. I forgot that the BDP-S1 does not do any audio disc playback. I stand corrected.

I, for the record, am still in the "both formats will coexist" camp. HD DVD is far from dead.

---Dave

That scenario very well could still play out. I'm just not sure how long the studios and retailers will support HD-DVD if Blu-ray's lead widens significantly by the end of the year.

hermanv

02-21-2007, 12:14 PM

...edit...
As far as the top 20 goes, I think the more significant figure is that 16 of those titles are Blu-ray EXCLUSIVES. It doesn't mean that 2007 will skew to this extreme in favor of Blu-ray, but the fact that Blu-ray has 5 out of the 6 major studios (6 out of 7 if you include MGM) in its camp is a very strong indicator that they will cover the vast majority of the best selling titles once again. ...edit...
Do you have a nickel? I believe that is the current cost and value of corporate loyalty.

I think the studios will merely jump to the wining market, exclusives be damned. Anyone who signed a contract at a major studio that stops them from selling HD movies if Blu-Ray goes bust is already looking for a new job.

Groundbeef

02-21-2007, 12:18 PM

The Wall-Street Journal reported yesterday that Blu-Ray sales are exceeding raw sales #'s of HD-DVD discs. However, they did point out that HD-DVD currently enjoys a 53% to 47%(blu-Ray) market share.

So, Blu-Ray is selling more discs right now, but they still are behind in total market share.

Not to bad for HD-DVD with only 1 exclusive studio.

Watched "The Departed" on my XBOX 360 HD-DVD and it was AWESOME. Colors really popped, and the action was great.

Now this is an interesting tidbit I just ran across.

The Blu-Ray Disc advantage may partially be explained as Sony is Reporting each FREE copy of Talladega Nights included with the PS3 as "Sold". That would skew the #'s a bit now wouldn't it? Report that you "Sold" 2 million Blu-Ray disks, when you really only gave them away.....hmmmm

http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/Market-study-finds-Blu-ray-outsells-HD-DVD-21.html

So, is Blu-Ray actually selling more, or just giving away more? Wooch, got an answer to this one?

Woochifer

02-21-2007, 02:07 PM

Do you have a nickel? I believe that is the current cost and value of corporate loyalty.

I think the studios will merely jump to the wining market, exclusives be damned. Anyone who signed a contract at a major studio that stops them from selling HD movies if Blu-Ray goes bust is already looking for a new job.

This was the topic of speculation on several of the posts that I saw on various forums in the weeks before CES -- will Fox and/or Disney announce that they're going to also support HD-DVD? Obviously, that never happened, and the sales trends have done nothing but reinforce their decision to only support Blu-ray. At CES, Fox said that the format war is in its final stages, and if you read the links from Bill Hunt's second commentary, the format war is already almost over in Japan and Australia.

The Blu-ray camp holding firm has nothing to do with corporate loyalty, it has everything to do with the cold, hard, bottom line. The manufacturers and studios who signed on with Blu-ray exclusively are out to make money by growing the market for HD disc media. In their calculation, they can make more money over the long-haul by putting their resources into ending the format war as quickly as possible. And at the moment, they're the least likely to jump to the HD-DVD camp simply because the sales numbers trend their way. Exclusives be damned? It's this exclusivity that will likely widen Blu-ray's lead as the year progresses.

Neutral studios like Warner and Paramount are hedging their bets by supporting both formats (and they had both been exclusively in the HD-DVD camp until Sony announced that the PS3 would come with Blu-ray). And in the case of Warner, they have developed dual-format disc media. LG is the only manufacturer in the Blu-ray Association that is also developing for HD-DVD. While LG has developed a dual-format player and burner/drive, they remain highly Blu-ray centric because their hardware does not support the Microsoft iHD interface that is authored into a lot of HD-DVD discs.

Universal's the only major studio holding out for HD-DVD, and if they continue to do so while market trends continue to move in favor of Blu-ray, whose interests would they be looking out for? Unless HD-DVD player sales pick up in a hurry, it would seem that there's a lot more pressure on Universal to go neutral than on Fox, Disney, or Sony.

The Wall-Street Journal reported yesterday that Blu-Ray sales are exceeding raw sales #'s of HD-DVD discs. However, they did point out that HD-DVD currently enjoys a 53% to 47%(blu-Ray) market share.

So, Blu-Ray is selling more discs right now, but they still are behind in total market share.

But, with Blu-ray maintaining a 2-to-1 advantage in disc sales, that market share advantage will probably disappear within the next few weeks. And with Casino Royale coming out next month as a Blu-ray exclusive, that advantage will probably disappear at that time, if not beforehand.

Not to bad for HD-DVD with only 1 exclusive studio.

And the 2-to-1 sales disadvantage and near parity in overall disc sales is not good for a format that had a 6+ month headstart.

The Blu-Ray Disc advantage may partially be explained as Sony is Reporting each FREE copy of Talladega Nights included with the PS3 as "Sold". That would skew the #'s a bit now wouldn't it? Report that you "Sold" 2 million Blu-Ray disks, when you really only gave them away.....hmmmm

http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/Market-...HD-DVD-21.html

So, is Blu-Ray actually selling more, or just giving away more? Wooch, got an answer to this one?

Very simple -- I'm not reporting what Sony says. I've been linking to information from Nielson Videoscan, which only records what actually gets sold. Freebies (which BTW Toshiba also included with their HD-DVD players) are not counted. The HD-DVD fanboys on the AVS Forum have been picking apart the Videoscan numbers trying to debunk the data, but none of their often wild theorizing (which very early on did include the aforementioned Talladega Nights giveaway) could explain away the fact that Blu-ray has established a large lead over HD-DVD in disc sales.

Duds

02-22-2007, 08:48 AM

nightflier

02-22-2007, 07:49 PM

...And with Casino Royale coming out next month as a Blu-ray exclusive, that advantage will probably disappear at that time, if not beforehand...

Wooch, Casino Royal is your ace in the hole? It wasn't that impressive of a movie, and I doubt the aging James Bond franchise is going to save the day for Blu-Ray.

So, does anyone have any rental figures yet?

GMichael

02-23-2007, 06:28 AM

Duds

02-23-2007, 07:15 AM

I see your point, but like I said before, the average Joe who buys a hdtv does so, i am generalizing here, to get a better picture for normal cable tv viewing. Does that mean they will run right out and buy a blu-ray or hd-dvd player? I dont know, but i dont think so.

And the one statistic mentioned here about 80% of the 10000 people who own a PS3 will buy blu-ray dvds is misleading i think. I'm guessing if you surveyed 10000 people and asked them if they were planning on starting a roth ira or something to that effect, 80% would say yes. The point I am trying to make is a lot of peole say they are goign to do things, when it comes down to it, they never do.

I'm just looking at it from the eyes of the average joe schmo consumer. The people on this message board are obviously home theater/music enthusiasts. It doesn't mean that everyone is as gung-ho about a little better picture quality on a dvd.

I don't think you are so far off as to "get ripped" as you say. But I do think that HD will keep growing. As more and more people get bigger TV's, HD plays a bigger roll. Sure, HD doesn't mean much on a 25" screen. But once you get over about 32" it starts to mean more and more. Take a look at the size of the TV's they are selling at BB, CC Sears etc. These are what Mr Joe Average is buying. Their friends have big TV's and now they want one. Then they bring their 70" 1080p TV home and it gets a so so picture. But why? Oh, I need HD input? How do I get that?

GMichael

02-23-2007, 07:26 AM

You may be right. Time will tell for sure.
I did see a Blu-ray at CC hooked up to a Samsung 1080p (in the 70" range I think). It looked fantastic. There were a few Joe's checking it out. Ooo's and AAah's could be heard.

Duds

02-23-2007, 07:56 AM

Oh i dont doubt the picture is awesome. I'm actually hoping it takes off, it might help save my job, lol

You may be right. Time will tell for sure.
I did see a Blu-ray at CC hooked up to a Samsung 1080p (in the 70" range I think). It looked fantastic. There were a few Joe's checking it out. Ooo's and AAah's could be heard.

Woochifer

02-23-2007, 10:51 AM

I just dont know if the average customers cares enough about blu-ray/hd-dvd for either to succeed. I've read through the posts, and there are a lot of good points. The argument that HD tvs took off last year is fine, but i think its because thats pretty much all that available these days. Sure there are still SD tvs available, but why buy one? And just because HDTV's are taking off doesnt necessarily mean blu-ray/hd-dvd will follow. My dad just bought an HDTV, does he care about blu-ray? hell no, he probably doesnt even know what the hell it is.

Granted, there will be a market for either blu-ray or hd-dvd, just like there is a market for sacd/dvd-audio, albeit a small one. In my opinion, and everyone i talk to about this, they have no interest in spending more on a player and more on the dvds to see a little better picture. The average customer just doesnt care enough.

Just my opinion. I'm sure i'll get ripped a new one.

Actually you're raising a valid point. This thread has been about the format war between HD-DVD and Blu-ray. Whether either format can displace the DVD is another question altogether. I've been posting for years that the DVD should have been an HD format all along. The HDTV specs were finalized back in 1992 when development on the DVD was still in the early stages.

Like with other digital formats, I think the DVD was released prematurely. If developers had waited until they could produce a disc format with sufficient capacity to handle HD video, I think that format could have driven the HDTV market and led to much earlier adoption. Instead, HDTVs were introduced with virtually no HD content available, while the DVD was introduced as a standard definition format. Since the DVD has taken over as the primary home video format, it might be just as entrenched for the long-term as the CD has been on the audio side. But, one factor in Blu-ray and HD-DVD's favor compared to DVD-A and SACD is the much stronger studio support that both formats have had compared to the music industry's mishandling of high res audio.

You're right that DVD might be good enough for Joe6p, and that's why I think Sony's inclusion of Blu-ray with the PS3 has probably turned out to be a smart move, at least on the home video side (on the gaming side, I think they gave up a lot of market share). Joe6p will not buy a Blu-ray player, but a lot of them will buy PS3s, if not for them then for their kids. If only a minority of PS3 buyers wind up using their gaming console as Blu-ray players, that's still a built-in customer base that potentially numbers in the millions. Far greater than Blu-ray or HD-DVD could have grown on their own. Again, whether this is enough to make Blu-ray or HD-DVD (or some combination of the two) the format of choice for home video viewing remains to be seen.

I read a while ago that about half of HDTV owners don't watch any HD content on those TVs. A lot of the early complaints from HDTV owners centered on the lack of HD programming. The question though is whether that will change now that 1) most OTA broadcasters now also broadcast in DTV; 2) the biggest cable channels (such as CNN, MTV, TBS, FX, and A&E) plan to start HD broadcasts this year; 3) Blu-ray and HD-DVD player prices are projected to drop below $400 by year's end, with Blu-ray in particular ramping up a large slate of releases this year; and 4) HD downloading now in the initial stages.

And the one statistic mentioned here about 80% of the 10000 people who own a PS3 will buy blu-ray dvds is misleading i think. I'm guessing if you surveyed 10000 people and asked them if they were planning on starting a roth ira or something to that effect, 80% would say yes. The point I am trying to make is a lot of peole say they are goign to do things, when it comes down to it, they never do.

It's not "misleading" because it's based on attitudinal surveys of PS3 owners -- it just is what it is. You're right that just because they they answer the question they won't necessarily follow up. But, I think it's also a good indicator that PS3 owners plan to use their consoles for more than just gaming. And the 700% jump in Blu-ray disc sales that occurred in the month after the PS3 introduction indicates that a lot of PS3 owners did actually follow through and purchase Blu-ray discs.

Wooch, Casino Royal is your ace in the hole? It wasn't that impressive of a movie, and I doubt the aging James Bond franchise is going to save the day for Blu-Ray.

Well, obviously your dislike for a movie does not deny the reality that Casino Royale took in hundreds of millions at the box office worldwide, just as your disdain for Sony and wishful thinking does not change the fact that Blu-ray's market trends are now running consistently ahead of HD-DVD.

My point on Casino Royale is simply that it will very likely push Blu-ray's overall disc sales ahead of HD-DVD, effectively negating HD-DVD's headstart. With week-to-week sales now 2-to-1 in favor of Blu-ray, this is going to happen with or without Casino Royale, and could happen before that title even comes out since Blu-ray has been adding about 1% to its market share every week for the past few weeks. Right now the overall disc sales stand at 52% to 48%, with no big HD-DVD exclusives on the horizon and Casino Royale coming out in three weeks. I would not regard Casino Royale as an "ace in the hole" because it's just one among many big releases due to come out exclusively on Blu-ray. Just look at last year's box office chart. Where do you see any potential HD-DVD exclusives (i.e., Universal releases) that might be an "ace in the hole" for that format?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2006&p=.htm

"Save the day" for Blu-ray? Between the two HD disc formats, Blu-ray is not the one that needs someone or something to intervene and "save the day."

GMichael

02-23-2007, 11:11 AM

I read a while ago that about half of HDTV owners don't watch any HD content on those TVs. A lot of the early complaints from HDTV owners centered on the lack of HD programming. The question though is whether that will change now that 1) most OTA broadcasters now also broadcast in DTV; 2) the biggest cable channels (such as CNN, MTV, TBS, FX, and A&E) plan to start HD broadcasts this year;

"

Part of the problem may be that broadcasters do not do enough to inform Mr. Joe how to get his HD programs. Example: My dad has an HD 55" Sony. He gets HD broadcasts from his local cable company. He's always complaining to me that he can't see a difference between the std shows and the HD shows. When I go to see him I find that he's watching HD shows but is tuned to the old std channel. He needs to switch to the higher 800+ channels to get the true HD broadcast. He complains, "but the program says that it's in HD." Yes, but only if you tune to the right channel. He does not understand. My guess is that he's not the only one. After all, he was an EE and the chief at a power plant for 30 years. It's not like he's an idiot. He just doesn't understand why he needs to change the channel to get the HD broadcast that the lower channels are already claiming to be in.

Woochifer

02-23-2007, 11:31 AM

Alright, no need to play the Casino Royale card. The latest Videoscan numbers now show Blu-ray moving ahead of HD-DVD in overall disc sales.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Industry_Trends/Disc_Sales/VideoScan:_Overall_Blu-ray_Disc_Sales_Now_Surpass_HD_DVD/489

Part of the problem may be that broadcasters do not do enough to inform Mr. Joe how to get his HD programs. Example: My dad has an HD 55" Sony. He gets HD broadcasts from his local cable company. He's always complaining to me that he can't see a difference between the std shows and the HD shows. When I go to see him I find that he's watching HD shows but is tuned to the old std channel. He needs to switch to the higher 800+ channels to get the true HD broadcast. He complains, "but the program says that it's in HD." Yes, but only if you tune to the right channel. He does not understand. My guess is that he's not the only one. After all, he was an EE and the chief at a power plant for 30 years. It's not like he's an idiot. He just doesn't understand why he needs to change the channel to get the HD broadcast that the lower channels are already claiming to be in.

I think it will remain a huge issue so long as cable companies have to maintain a dual analog/digital infrastructure, and TVs have to accommodate all these broadcast standards (OTA analog, OTA DTV, CATV analog, and CADTV). My dad was also an engineer, and he never figured out how to set the clock on a VCR and still has trouble navigating a DVD menu. Go figure.

Also, the cable and satellite service providers currently market HD as a premium service, which requires customers to use a set-top box. I know that newer HDTVs have can take an unscrambled DTV signal from the cable company (referred to as CADTV). The simplest option would be to simply stream the digital broadcast channels directly to the HDTV tuner through the cable unscrambled, and let customers use the TV tuner. But, the cable companies want to force customers to buy the whole digital tier package, so they still require the digital set top box.

GMichael

02-23-2007, 11:38 AM

So much for the HD tuner that was paid for when buying that TV. Picture & picture is gone too. I can still get the P&P because of the DVR my cable company lets me rent from them. But it's nothing like the 9 pics I could get when using the Sony's tuner.

I think I may have derailed another thread. So sorry. Please go back to the Sony vs Microsoft debate. I've been reading all posts with great anticipation.

nightflier

02-23-2007, 05:12 PM

Groundbeef

02-26-2007, 11:20 AM

Its a pretty good parady of a popular song, and its about how Sony squandered its lead.

It superimposes company comments, and actual audio from press meetings, and some other stuff. Funny and pretty polished.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R98qC0fd_1w

I laughed out loud a couple of times!

Woochifer

02-26-2007, 07:19 PM

Wooch,

Here's another scenario for ya (culled from that earlier post):

- Blockbuster & Netflix drop Blu-Ray from their lineup because the disks are too fragile to withstand repeated shipping back & forth.

This would leave only the retail sales channel open to BR, thus sealing its fate. As I said, we are completely ignoring the importance of rentals on this industry. Considering how many people have Blockbuster and/or Netflix subscriptions, this is probably the most widespread source of movies to the largest number of customers. So I really do hope someone on this forum can provide some rental numbers.

Something else to think about: how much have Blockbuster & Netflix contributed to the drop in sales of movies in the last two years. My guess is, quite a bit. The studios keep pointing the finger at pirates, but I think the real culprit is new technology (in this case, easy Internet-based selection and simpler subscription services). Once Netflix starts offering download services to it's share of customers, I think we will see another revolution in this industry.

This is a red herring, because as I stated earlier Panasonic purportedly developed a hard coating technique that solves any potential issues with scratching. Sony and TDK have also developed scratch guarding techniques that they use in the duplicating process. Thus far, I've not read any widespread problems with discs getting rendered unplayable due to scratches. It might yet emerge as an issue, but nothing that's come up so far.

Your whole harping on the rentals is a dead end given that the DVD rental trends usually track closely with the sales. And the revenue generated by rentals for the top titles usually pales in comparison to what they generate with sales.

And even if rentals are the deciding market factor that you say they are, how does HD-DVD get around the lack of studio support and big hit new releases? Hard to stay ahead in the rental market if a format has fewer new releases, and most of the big titles unavailable.

Also, your point about "drop in sales" over the last two years is false. Only the growth rate has declined, but the actual sales have still continued to increase.

Regarding Casino Royale, yes box office sales were decent, but how many of those were repeat viewers? I think most people heard or read that the movie was a smidge better than the last Bond flic and thought they would check it out. And after seeing it once, they had enough. Considering how pathetic the selection of action films has been this year (especially the summer movie drought), the public has just been grasping at straws for some decent movie watching. Will these people then buy the BR disk too? Who knows, but let's see how its rental does, first.

Repeat viewers? Seeing how the rental does first? What does any of that have to do with anything?

Casino Royale or not, Blu-ray has already passed HD-DVD in overall disc sales, despite HD-DVD's 6+ month headstart. The format has maintained a consistent 2-to-1 advantage in disc sales since the start of the year, and it has a far bigger slate of big box office titles coming out over the next few months. Casino Royale is just one example of a high-grossing Blu-ray exclusive title that HD-DVD has no answer for.

You can rationalize all you want about how the public wants "decent movie watching" but the growth of both HD formats over the next few months will be dictated by which format can get more players into consumers' hands and which format puts out more of the titles that consumers are looking for. And on both of those counts, Blu-ray has a clear advantage. Any other interpretation is nothing more than splitting hairs and wishful thinking.

I have nothing against the BR format, especially since I consider it technically superior. And despite what you may think, I am making an effort to separate my dislike of Sony from the points I am making about BR. I certainly don't care for Microsoft either, but let's call a spade a spade shall we? The proclamation that BR disk sales are outpacing HD-DVD 3-1, a 75% market share, according to one of your early posts, is the kind of claim that smacks of yelling fire in a crowded movie theater. Maybe this figure was only referring to one particular month, maybe the one month that Sony was giving out those free disks? I really don't know, but this statement did not jive with what I observed at the store, the rental services, with game console sales, on the computer-tech side, and with standalone player sales. As people filled in some of the details above, it became clear that the 3-1 figure was a bit inflated and when cooler heads prevailed, we found out that it's more like 51-52% in favor of BR, according to that Wall Street Journal article.

Sorry, but your incorrect references to Sony as a "monopoly" and constant sniping about the rootkits just demonstrate an inability to separate your disdain for Sony from any objective discussion of Blu-ray. Saying that my linking to simple market data smacks of yelling "fire" in a crowded theater is nothing more than hyperbole on your part. The market trends are what they are. Just because they don't correspond with what you see in retail stores (a very limited perspective and hardly an unbiased view) and what you wish would happen, does absolutely nothing to contradict the data and what it confirms about the state of the market. Just because the sales trends support the Blu-ray Association's position does not make it false.

My reference to APPROACHING "3-to-1" was a one week trend, but the year-to-date numbers have been consistently 2-to-1 in favor of Blu-ray and that's what my posts have been referencing. The week that Casino Royale comes out, Blu-ray will probably have at least a 3-to-1 advantage. On the HD-DVD side, there's nothing coming out that will likely bring it even close to parity with Blu-ray even for one week, since most of the biggest upcoming HD-DVD titles will simultaneously come out on Blu-ray.

Also, the Wall Street Journal numbers are more than two weeks old. At that point, HD-DVD still had an overall advantage in disc sales (a point that I have made repeatedly). Now, with the latest Videoscan numbers, Blu-ray has vaulted ahead of HD-DVD in overall disc sales.

And I would suggest that you read my prior posts before bringing up the subject of disc giveaways yet again. (Videoscan only tracks what gets sold, not what gets shipped)

So, now to recap -- Blu-ray now has the upper hand in the following areas:

- Week-to-week disc sales (which have been running at least 2-to-1 in favor of Blu-ray since January)
- Year-to-date disc sales
- Total disc sales since inception (Blu-ray just passed HD-DVD last week)
- Total players (despite HD-DVD's headstart and Toshiba subsidizing the early models, standalone Blu-ray and HD-DVD players sold about the same number last year; and the PS3 gives Blu-ray a decided advantage)
- Studio support (5 of 6 major studios, with 3 supporting Blu-ray exclusively)
- Upcoming releases (more library titles, more of the recent top grossing movies)

I've not seen any rental tracking of the two formats, but does any of this point to video stores seeing something totally different? I don't think so.

As I said before, I don't have access to all the data that you have, but I'm only describing what I see. My objection doesn't have the deep statistical analysis and thorough calculations about next month's expected sales, but it does have one reality that can't be ignored so easily: what I observed is also what Joe6p sees when he's browsing around at BB.

What you observed is what you see at YOUR local BB store at this moment. Not exactly a conclusion that can be generalized across the country. It won't matter what Joe6p thinks until the prices on the players come down to their price points, and I think by that time, the store shelves will look very different and the outcome of the format war will already be decided (i.e, Blu-ray wins, or both formats coexist, or the studios and manufacturers pull the plug on both formats).

Another point I've been trying to make, which is what I've taken away from seeing these things unfold with so many other technologies, is that the supremacy of BR is just a prediction and any of a number of scenarios, including the ones I've suggested, could change the fate of BR very quickly. It is simply too early to make predictions, unless one already had pitched their tent in one camp. Certainly all the heated debates are coming from people who've already bought a player, and who thus have a vested interest in their side prevailing. This is hardly a position of neutrality to be arguing from.

Right, and I've thus far bought into neither format. My observations come through assessing where the market advantages point, and at this juncture, nearly all of the advantages point in Blu-ray's direction. The scenarios that you've outlined depend on substantial and unlikely structural changes in the market that need to happen very quickly, and even then, the best case scenario for HD-DVD is no better than a draw. From the outset, Bill Hunt has said that the format war will ultimately be decided by studio support, and I agree with him. It won't matter that HD-DVD pushes the price points through the floor (which Toshiba intends to do by licensing off-brand manufacturers in China) if the majority of the biggest grossing titles remain unavailable in that format.

Since we are talking about movies, I just watched again last night, for the umptieth time, one of my favorite movies (a standard DVD): The Fellowship of the Ring. At the end, all seems hopeless: the forces of evil outnumber all other players and are on the verge of victory. But we all know that by the time the war is well under way, players yet unengaged eventually turn the tide of disaster in favor of men, elves, dwarves, and hobbits. None of these initially unengaged players joined because they were confident their side would win - no, they joined because the winning forces of evil were recklessly attacking their interests. Likewise, if the BR camp, and it's adherent companies trample on too many unengaged players, the tide could very well turn. Think of Blockbuster/Netflix as the Ents... Yes The LOTR is a tale of fantasy, made more potent with active imagination, but tales of fantasy have won real wars in the past.

Nice fantasy tale, but we are talking about reality here. It doesn't matter if you think that Sony's alliance with Dell, Apple, Disney, Fox, Warner, Paramount, Samsung, Sharp, Philips, LG, Panasonic, and Pioneer, among others, represents "the winning forces of evil." Toshiba and Microsoft can't fight a war if two of their biggest partners (Warner and Paramount) represent both sides.

One other factor that played a role in the movie and that could very well play a role in the BR / HD-DVD war is leadership. What if Steve Jobs came out publicly in favor of HD-DVD and actively promoted it as the anti-media platform? The cool factor of standing up for something, anything, in this decade of apathy and misery, would draw millions of young people to his cause, not to mention the millions of iPod / iPhone owners. Maybe his negotiations with Sony for DRM-free music & movies becomes the catalyst for an Aragorn-like champion against the evil empire of corporate media domination. He is already leaning in that direction. This could be the revolution of our time!

It could happen....

Ummm, right. This goes beyond fantasy and more into the rhelm of delusion, since Apple is exclusively in the Blu-ray camp, and on the Blu-ray Association's board of directors. Sorry, but HD-DVD's Aragorn-like champion will more likely take the form of Bill Gates, and that's not exactly someone I would count on to battle "the evil empire of corporate media domination."

With Steve Jobs, he's trying to have it both ways -- look like an advocate for opening up digital media files by simply blaming the record companies for DRM, while still locking down iTunes downloads with his own DRM. At the end of the day, Jobs will do what's best for Apple's bottomline. And if that means talking the anti-DRM talk, while still selling millions of DRM-enabled downloads, then that's what he'll do.

nightflier

02-27-2007, 05:29 PM

Actually, that's not a foregone conclusion.

It won't matter what Joe6p thinks until the prices on the players come down to their price points, and I think by that time, the store shelves will look very different and the outcome of the format war will already be decided (i.e, Blu-ray wins, or both formats coexist, or the studios and manufacturers pull the plug on both formats).

This is what you think. It's future speculation.

Right, and I've thus far bought into neither format.

Then why the sheer desire to see H-DVD die a painful death?

My observations come through assessing where the market advantages point, and at this juncture, nearly all of the advantages point in Blu-ray's direction. The scenarios that you've outlined depend

on substantial and unlikely structural changes in the market that need to happen

very quickly, and even then, the best case scenario for HD-DVD is no better than a

draw. From the outset, Bill Hunt has said that the format war will ultimately be

decided by studio support, and I agree with him. It won't matter that HD-DVD

pushes the price points through the floor (which Toshiba intends to do by licensing

off-brand manufacturers in China) if the majority of the biggest grossing titles

remain unavailable in that format.

Yes, I know. It's been repeated ad nauseum. The figures you site are deduced by research firms who look at current trends, take polls, analyze sales figures, etc. It's all very scientific, I'm sure, but how accurate is this, really? I remember reading that just before the 2004 elections, that the Dems had John Kerry's poll numbers well ahead of Bush, while the RNC's polls had Bush winning by a landslide. Or for an example that I'm more familiar with, Microsoft is claiming that Windows server outperforms Linux and the Linux camp obviously says otherwise. So I guess it's all where you stand. What's the old expression? Those who are in power write the history books, or something like that. What I do know is that in my own environment, where I've had an opportunity to fine-tune each system (unload unnecessary processes, recompile Kernels, etc.), my Linux server beats the pants off Windows. Now maybe my observations don't amount to a hill of beans in the statisticians' logs, but they do in my in my own environment. And yet, there isn't a metric, poll, or statistic in the maintsream media that has the independence or guts to announce that the emperor has no clothes.

Nice fantasy tale, but we are talking about reality here.

I did say that it was a fantasy, but I also said that fantasy tales can win real wars. Sometimes it's just an idea, a belief, a hope that spreads like wildfire and brings about revolutions in a very short time. There are plenty of examples throughout history.

It doesn't matter if you think that Sony's alliance with Dell, Apple, Disney, Fox, Warner, Paramount, Samsung, Sharp, Philips, LG, Panasonic, and Pioneer, among others, represents "the winning forces of evil." Toshiba and Microsoft can't fight a war if two of their biggest partners (Warner and Paramount) represent both sides.

Wow, now it doesn't matter what I think anymore? I thought this message board was to share opinions. Anyhow, you're lumping a bunch of companies together without differentiating how much of the market they represent or what technologies. For example, there is a big difference between the studios, the consumer electronic companies and a company like Microsoft which primarily produces software. They are all approaching the formats from very different positions. It sounds great to list off a bunch of company names for one camp, but how much of an impact do they have together? And many of the companies you list are in both camps, so let's call a spade a spade shall we. Or is someone else using of hyperbole?

Ummm, right. This goes beyond fantasy and more into the rhelm of delusion, since Apple is exclusively in the Blu-ray camp, and on the Blu-ray Association's board of directors.

I didn't say Jobs was currently in the HD-DVD camp. I said that if his negociations with Sony and Fox went sour, he wouldn't loose too much cred jumping on the HD-DVD train. Considering how much influence Microsoft has over Apple these days, that's not a stretch.

Sorry, but HD-DVD's Aragorn-like champion will more likely

take the form of Bill Gates, and that's not exactly someone I would count on to

battle "the evil empire of corporate media domination."

I didn't say that, nor did I suggest it.

With Steve Jobs, he's trying to have it both ways -- look like an advocate for opening up digital media files by simply blaming the record companies for DRM, while still locking down iTunes downloads with his own DRM. At the end of the day, Jobs will do what's best for Apple's bottomline. And if that means talking the anti-DRM talk, while still selling millions of DRM-enabled downloads, then that's what he'll do.

Whatever his motivation may be (and I don't agree with you that he is completely bottom-line oriented), he is still seen as an icon in many circles. He definitely could be that savior that so many disaffected people are looking to. Now if he ran for president, not even Clinton would win!

Woochifer

02-27-2007, 08:28 PM

Actually, that's not a foregone conclusion.

And I never said that it was, but claiming that my simple recitation of factual market data is akin to screaming fire in a movie theater is quite a hyperbolic stretch on your part.

This is what you think. It's future speculation.

Yup, but at least my speculation is grounded in how the market is currently structured. Your scenarios depend on large-scale changes to the market structure that are either unlikely or illogical. Big difference.

Then why the sheer desire to see H-DVD die a painful death?

HD-DVD can go on its merry way for all I care, but I think that as far as a consensus HD disc format goes, its window has already closed. Too many established trends have to reverse just for HD-DVD to force a draw in the format war. For me as a consumer, I want a clear cut winner and I want this format war to end ASAP. I could care less which format wins. I simply prefer clarity in the market, and right now, Blu-ray is far better positioned to quickly establish that clarity so that the HD video disc market can grow from there. HD video discs have got enough market impediments to deal with without a format war further dragging things down.

So, obviously I would like Universal to go neutral so that one of the two HD disc formats would have 100% coverage on the major studio releases. If the market were lined up with 5 of the 6 studios supporting HD-DVD with Sony as the lone hold out for Blu-ray, I would prefer that HD-DVD emerge as the format of choice.

Yes, I know. It's been repeated ad nauseum. The figures you site are deduced by research firms who look at current trends, take polls, analyze sales figures, etc. It's all very scientific, I'm sure, but how accurate is this, really? I remember reading that just before the 2004 elections, that the Dems had John Kerry's poll numbers well ahead of Bush, while the RNC's polls had Bush winning by a landslide. Or for an example that I'm more familiar with, Microsoft is claiming that Windows server outperforms Linux and the Linux camp obviously says otherwise. So I guess it's all where you stand. What's the old expression? Those who are in power write the history books, or something like that. What I do know is that in my own environment, where I've had an opportunity to fine-tune each system (unload unnecessary processes, recompile Kernels, etc.), my Linux server beats the pants off Windows. Now maybe my observations don't amount to a hill of beans in the statisticians' logs, but they do in my in my own environment. And yet, there isn't a metric, poll, or statistic in the maintsream media that has the independence or guts to announce that the emperor has no clothes.

Your examples though have nothing to do with looking at how a market's structure directly correlates to the sales trends. Even when HD-DVD held the sales lead due to its earlier launch, Blu-ray's structural advantage was well known and well documented. It was only a matter of time when the companies backing Blu-ray began to exercise that market advantage, and now the sales trends simply confirm what analysts had been predicting all along.

Opinion poll numbers have a margin of error because they are based on small statistical samples. The Videoscan numbers are based on actual sales, which means that they are more akin to an actual vote count than a poll sample that might make up less than 0.1% of the actual votes cast. Like I said, the HD-DVD fanboys have been trying to debunk these numbers on other sites, but all they have to go on is their own biased observations and wishful thinking. Both sides have made plenty of claims, the difference right now is that the Blu-ray claims are more grounded in reality. If the market data is as questionable and subject to interpretation as you speculate, then why haven't any of the Blu-ray Association members gone neutral since the format actually launched?

You can make arguments about technical superiority or personal preference, but it does nothing to change how the market trends go. To this day, I'll vouch for the technical superiority of Betamax over VHS. But, my beliefs didn't mean squat once my neighborhood video stores and then the major studios quit supporting the Beta format, thus forcing me to bite the bullet and buy a VHS machine. Wishful thinking does not make it so.

Wow, now it doesn't matter what I think anymore? I thought this message board was to share opinions. Anyhow, you're lumping a bunch of companies together without differentiating how much of the market they represent or what technologies. For example, there is a big difference between the studios, the consumer electronic companies and a company like Microsoft which primarily produces software. They are all approaching the formats from very different positions. It sounds great to list off a bunch of company names for one camp, but how much of an impact do they have together? And many of the companies you list are in both camps, so let's call a spade a spade shall we. Or is someone else using of hyperbole?

Let's not get all self-righteous here. You're the one who's comparing Blu-ray to "the winning forces of evil," and implying some value judgment on a topic that's nothing more than two coalitions of companies trying to separate consumers from their money.

Saying that I'm simply "lumping a bunch of companies together" is just more ignorance of the many points that I've been making all along on this thread. Here is how the market is shaping up by category --

Studios - point made many times, Blu-ray has a decided advantage with studio support. More titles, more of the high grossing titles coming out on Blu-ray. Most of the big HD-DVD releases will simultaneously come out on Blu-ray, whereas more than half of the biggest upcoming releases on Blu-ray will not come out on HD-DVD

Player manufacturers - Another decided advantage for Blu-ray. Toshiba is currently the only manufacturer making HD-DVD drives, with LG (and soon Samsung) making dual-format drives that aren't fully compatible with HD-DVD. Toshiba's only new manufacturing partners are off-brand outsourcers in China. Blu-ray has just about every other major consumer electronics company already manufacturing or about to come out with Blu-ray players. That's a lot of companies marketing the Blu-ray format, and a lot of shelf space at retail stores. This is no different than when the Betamax VCRs had to fight for visibility against an onslaught of VHS marketing and a far greater number of VHS models to choose from.

Computer integrators - HD-DVD has Microsoft and Intel. Blu-ray has Dell and Apple. HP and Gateway are neutral. This is the only market where neither format has a decided advantage at the moment, but here, Blu-ray has a technical advantage in its larger storage capacity. Plus, Sony, Panasonic, TDK, and JVC, among others, have been working on enhancements to the disc capacity, disc durability, DVD/Blu-ray hybrid capability, and production yields. You have more companies involved in technical development on the Blu-ray side. Even the dual-format drive developed by LG starts off as a Blu-ray burner and simply adds HD-DVD read-only capabilities (and at the moment, it does not support Microsoft's iHD disc authoring format).

Only a few of the companies that I listed in the Blu-ray camp are in both camps. Look at any source, and you'll see that the industry support for Blu-ray is more widespread.

I didn't say Jobs was currently in the HD-DVD camp. I said that if his negociations with Sony and Fox went sour, he wouldn't loose too much cred jumping on the HD-DVD train. Considering how much influence Microsoft has over Apple these days, that's not a stretch.

But, that ignores the basic fact that Apple is a board member in the Blu-ray Association. Rumors are that Apple will start replacing its SuperDrive with Blu-ray drives in Macs sometime this year. Apple has a history of going with the newer technologies over enhancements of existing formats, which is what HD-DVD is. They were the first ones to go with the 3.5" floppies, and the first ones to include CD-ROM drives across their entire product line. Universally adopting Blu-ray drives across the board would be consistent with how Apple has operated over the years.

Whatever his motivation may be (and I don't agree with you that he is completely bottom-line oriented), he is still seen as an icon in many circles. He definitely could be that savior that so many disaffected people are looking to. Now if he ran for president, not even Clinton would win!

You talking about Hillary or Bill? :D

Sure, he's seen as an icon, but at the core, he remains a businessman. IMO, his public pronouncements in favor of open media files are brilliant PR and marketing, even if they're full of crap when you follow the money trail. He's having it both ways by propping up this image as an anti-DRM champion and claiming that his hands are tied by the record companies; and all the while his company makes billions selling proprietary music players and DRM-enabled downloads. Until he actually backs up his rhetoric with actions (i.e., opening up the iPod, and/or forcing the record companies' hand by leveraging iTunes' market position to push for open media files), I'll just interpret his latest directive for what it is -- absolutely brilliant marketing and image building. Doesn't matter what the reality actually is because he has so deftly defined the perception.

PeruvianSkies

02-28-2007, 12:25 AM

nightflier

02-28-2007, 10:54 AM

Nightflier,

You are wasting your precious time typing away with Woochifer. Apparently you have not been informed that he is never wrong about anything and that his opinions are law. Anyone who argues with him over any matter is immediately wrong and he will go down with the ship fighting tooth and nail to disprove your thoughts, feelings, and opinions. He actually knows more about you than you do. When it comes to Home Theater, Audio & Video, etc etc he is a scholar or unprecedented achievement and in the back of the Encyclopedia Brittanica you will see that Woochifer is the source for all knowledge known to man. Oh, and I can't wait to see his response to this. I'm sure i'll have to spend 20 minutes reading his dissertation regarding things that I have said in the past and pointing out just how inferier all of us are to him, and his "neverending DVD collection" which is sure to be surpassed one day by his "neverending blu-ray" collection. In my mind the only thing that is "neverending" is his useless ramblings and debates that he continues to have on this site!

It sounds like I'm up against Jack Bauer. Maybe I can have Wooch shipped off to China for a couple of years of "re-education" so that we can discuss this with a few other people on this thread.

Well, all I'm saying is this:

- It's still too early to start cheering for BR, especially since Microsoft could still pull an October Surprise on us.
- Proclaiming the victory for BR at this stage smacks of trying to influence the undecideds.
- Who's really feeding the Videoscan beast?

Woochifer

02-28-2007, 12:41 PM

Nightflier,

You are wasting your precious time typing away with Woochifer. Apparently you have not been informed that he is never wrong about anything and that his opinions are law. Anyone who argues with him over any matter is immediately wrong and he will go down with the ship fighting tooth and nail to disprove your thoughts, feelings, and opinions. He actually knows more about you than you do. When it comes to Home Theater, Audio & Video, etc etc he is a scholar or unprecedented achievement and in the back of the Encyclopedia Brittanica you will see that Woochifer is the source for all knowledge known to man. Oh, and I can't wait to see his response to this. I'm sure i'll have to spend 20 minutes reading his dissertation regarding things that I have said in the past and pointing out just how inferier all of us are to him, and his "neverending DVD collection" which is sure to be surpassed one day by his "neverending blu-ray" collection. In my mind the only thing that is "neverending" is his useless ramblings and debates that he continues to have on this site!

Nice to see that you've taken a break from your world tour of XXX houses and dollar theaters (http://forums.audioreview.com/showpost.php?p=178408&postcount=14) to chime in with yet another one of your "on topic" missives! :lol:

Woochifer

02-28-2007, 12:59 PM

Well, all I'm saying is this:

- It's still too early to start cheering for BR, especially since Microsoft could still pull an October Surprise on us.
- Proclaiming the victory for BR at this stage smacks of trying to influence the undecideds.
- Who's really feeding the Videoscan beast?

Well, guess what ... I've never denied that the Blu-ray Association is trying to influence the undecideds, just as the HD-DVD proponents are trying the same thing. The difference is that HD-DVD has absolutely nothing they can tout that contradicts Blu-ray's proclamation. Saying that some "October Surprise" could happen really is grasping at straws when all of the market trends have simply confirmed what most analysts had been predicting before both of the formats launched. No matter what Microsoft does, it won't impact the market unless anyone can force Fox and Disney to go neutral.

As far as Videoscan goes, these are the numbers that trade publications and all of the major studios subscribe to in order to track their video sales, so even members of the HD-DVD camp are "feeding the Videoscan beast." It is the same company that puts out the Soundscan data that Billboard magazine and all of the major record companies use to track album sales. The January data release was the first time that they published separate charts for the HD disc formats, and it was the first bit of tracking data that was not first filtered and cherry picked by either camp.

nightflier

02-28-2007, 01:26 PM

Well, guess what ... I've never denied that the Blu-ray Association is trying to influence the undecideds

Jack,

Isn't it you that's trying to influence the undecideds on this board? 'Cmon admit it, you can't wait to buy that shiny new PS3....

As far as Videoscan goes, these are the numbers that trade publications and all of the major studios subscribe to in order to track their video sales

Videoscan / ACNielsen, of Dun & Bradstreet Corp., right? That "Corp." part already rubs the wrong way, but here's some history for ya:

"CHICAGO --(Business Wire)-- Feb. 16, 2006 -- Information Resources, Inc. and Information Resources, Inc. Litigation Contingent Payment Rights Trust (OTC BB:IRICR.OB) announced today that IRI and defendants A.C. Nielsen Co. (now owned by VNU, N.V.), R. H. Donnelley Corporation (formerly known as The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation) and IMS Health Incorporated (successor to IMS International, Inc.) have reached a full settlement of IRI's claims in its antitrust lawsuit against the defendants, entitled Information Resources, Inc. v. The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation, A.C. Nielsen Co. and IMS International, Inc., No. 05-0564. IRI filed this lawsuit in July 1996 in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, alleging that the defendants violated Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. Sections 1 and 2, and the common law by engaging in a series of unlawful practices through which IRI claimed that defendants attempted to regain monopoly power in the U.S. market for retail tracking services and exclude competition from several markets outside the U.S. where A.C. Nielsen dominated. The case was dismissed by the District Court in January 2005 and is presently on appeal before the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit."

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/02/16/1380613.htm

And they have had several other questionable lawsuits, if I recall. The problem with Videoscan is that they are not independent enough. I'm not saying that their information on BR & HD-DVD sales is completely incorrect, I'm just saying that it should be taken with a grain of salt.

PeruvianSkies

02-28-2007, 03:00 PM

Nice to see that you've taken a break from your world tour of XXX houses and dollar theaters (http://forums.audioreview.com/showpost.php?p=178408&postcount=14) to chime in with yet another one of your "on topic" missives! :lol:

Darn, Woochifer really let me down on this one, I was expected a lengthy response, instead I was only half right, he brought up something that I said before, which was regarding how I would rather watch a movie in the cheapest, dirtiest, low budget theater than watch a movie at his house. Oh well.

Woochifer

02-28-2007, 03:21 PM

Jack,

Isn't it you that's trying to influence the undecideds on this board? 'Cmon admit it, you can't wait to buy that shiny new PS3....

Nope, what I can't wait to buy first is the HDTV. Everything else will have to follow suit thereafter. Contrary to your implication here, I had been of the opinion that HD-DVD and Blu-ray would coexist with dual-format players and discs. But, after seeing how the sales trends have shaped up, and how the studio support and upcoming releases will likely widen Blu-ray's lead, I'm now much more in agreement with what Bill Hunt has been saying all along -- the studio support will drive the market.

Videoscan / ACNielsen, of Dun & Bradstreet Corp., right? That "Corp." part already rubs the wrong way, but here's some history for ya:

"CHICAGO --(Business Wire)-- Feb. 16, 2006 -- Information Resources, Inc. and Information Resources, Inc. Litigation Contingent Payment Rights Trust (OTC BB:IRICR.OB) announced today that IRI and defendants A.C. Nielsen Co. (now owned by VNU, N.V.), R. H. Donnelley Corporation (formerly known as The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation) and IMS Health Incorporated (successor to IMS International, Inc.) have reached a full settlement of IRI's claims in its antitrust lawsuit against the defendants, entitled Information Resources, Inc. v. The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation, A.C. Nielsen Co. and IMS International, Inc., No. 05-0564. IRI filed this lawsuit in July 1996 in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, alleging that the defendants violated Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. Sections 1 and 2, and the common law by engaging in a series of unlawful practices through which IRI claimed that defendants attempted to regain monopoly power in the U.S. market for retail tracking services and exclude competition from several markets outside the U.S. where A.C. Nielsen dominated. The case was dismissed by the District Court in January 2005 and is presently on appeal before the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit."

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/02/16/1380613.htm

And they have had several other questionable lawsuits, if I recall. The problem with Videoscan is that they are not independent enough. I'm not saying that their information on BR & HD-DVD sales is completely incorrect, I'm just saying that it should be taken with a grain of salt.

So, they've been sued for allegedly exercising market power to freeze out competing retail tracking services, and the case was dismissed. It doesn't say anything about the validity or "independence" of the data source. For my work, I subscribe to D&B and several other business data sources. Their objectivity and accuracy are what they sell, and any limitations on that data is spelled out up front. If there's any question about the reliability of their data or they fail to keep me informed on the data limitations, I would simply cancel the subscription.

So, if this Videoscan data should "be taken with a grain of salt" then why do the major studios and trade publications such as Billboard and Video Business subscribe to it? There's very little to interpret here. Videoscan and Soundscan are point-of-sale tracking services that keep count of retail sales for specific titles. Universal has had multiple opportunities to dispute and raise questions about the data, but they've done nothing in response other than tout HD-DVD's superior "attach rate" (i.e., the average number of discs purchased per player). Maybe it has something to do with Universal knowing that Videoscan uses an extensive and valid tracking methodology, and the fact that they use the data themselves to track and analyze their home video sales?

PeruvianSkies

02-28-2007, 08:33 PM

Nope, what I can't wait to buy first is the HDTV. Everything else will have to follow suit thereafter. Contrary to your implication here, I had been of the opinion that HD-DVD and Blu-ray would coexist with dual-format players and discs. But, after seeing how the sales trends have shaped up, and how the studio support and upcoming releases will likely widen Blu-ray's lead, I'm now much more in agreement with what Bill Hunt has been saying all along -- the studio support will drive the market.

So, they've been sued for allegedly exercising market power to freeze out competing retail tracking services, and the case was dismissed. It doesn't say anything about the validity or "independence" of the data source. For my work, I subscribe to D&B and several other business data sources. Their objectivity and accuracy are what they sell, and any limitations on that data is spelled out up front. If there's any question about the reliability of their data or they fail to keep me informed on the data limitations, I would simply cancel the subscription.

So, if this Videoscan data should "be taken with a grain of salt" then why do the major studios and trade publications such as Billboard and Video Business subscribe to it? There's very little to interpret here. Videoscan and Soundscan are point-of-sale tracking services that keep count of retail sales for specific titles. Universal has had multiple opportunities to dispute and raise questions about the data, but they've done nothing in response other than tout HD-DVD's superior "attach rate" (i.e., the average number of discs purchased per player). Maybe it has something to do with Universal knowing that Videoscan uses an extensive and valid tracking methodology, and the fact that they use the data themselves to track and analyze their home video sales?

THE DIGITAL BITS acts like there is hardly any product for either format, and their reviews for the HD formats are few and far between, yet there are hundreds of titles available now. At FULVUEDRIVE-IN.COM we have covered nearly every HD title released to this date!!!

kexodusc

03-01-2007, 05:54 AM

THE DIGITAL BITS acts like there is hardly any product for either format, and their reviews for the HD formats are few and far between, yet there are hundreds of titles available now. At FULVUEDRIVE-IN.COM we have covered nearly every HD title released to this date!!!

Wow, you work for FULVUEDRIVE-IN.com? We could use movie reviewer here...hint, hint..
Back OT, not sure what the coverage of HD titles by a review site has to do with the sales trends and predicting a format war winner? Can you elaborate?

I think there's some merit to what Wooch is saying - so far the majority of Studios have held to their guns supporting BluRay, and BluRay in turn has gathered some unexpected early momentum. This usually doesn't happen in format wars, and when it does it's even more rare to see the trailing format recover and pull off a victory. If I had to guess now, I'd be split between BluRay winning, and both formats continuing to exist indefinitely, though I think the latter is unlikely because the industry benefits much more from one format. I think it's extremely unlikely HD-DVD can emerge the winner now. For the good of the industry, I hope one side wins in clear fashion. Not like SACD beat out DVD-A (and I suppose the jury's still out on that as both formats enjoy the sporadic new release). Originally I picked HD-DVD because it was suppose to be cheaper. I thought this make it an easy win. That hasn't been the case, they're aren't cheaper (at least in my neck of the woods, and not significantly so from what I've seen) so I'm indifferent now.

It's not the people who already bought HD-DVD or BluRay players who will decide the outcome, but rather the will-be buyers. If I had to buy a player, and I knew that 75% of studios backed BluRay, and thus 75% of movies are guaranteed to be on that format, I'd buy a BluRay player. Just seems drastically less risky. Than picking the format with a downside of 25%. Herd-mentality is how a consumer-based economy works, people follow the leader.

I also think Nightflier's right in his assessment that loyalty to either format is on a day-to-day basis, so she ain't over 'till it's over. But until I see an HD-DVD from Fox or Disney, I can't see HD-DVD making this battle even close in the long-term. If I were BluRay I'd be slapping a sticker on every single piece of hardware that states something to this effect, thus creating a deterrent to buying HD-DVD players. As store selection builds,up and shelf space gets scarce retailers are going to have to choose which formats to stock. If BluRay is significantly closer to being the one-size fits all solution, stores are going to pick BluRay. Right now, it seems pretty evenly split in the stores I visit. Though neither displays are all the impressive.

Most buyers are on the fence still. That's the key. If by this time next year there's more titles available on BluRay, and BluRay continues to boast that it's outselling HD-DVD 2 to 1 or more, I think it's pretty safe to say the game is over.

And let's not kid ourselves here - all the posturing BluRay is doing now is exactly what it takes to win a format war. Doesn't matter if it's 100% accurate, or even close to being true, if the public percieves it to be true, and it influences buying decisions, the goal is accomplished.
HD-DVD has to start increasing demand, and supply (on the software side)! It's hard to increase demand if primary function of the unit is significantly limited (fewer available titles to play in the future) than your competitor. It's hard to increase the supply of the software if the sales figures the Studios are reading suggest BluRay has significant momentum now, simply because there's less incentive to support a losing format.

All I can say is it's still early, so any momentum BluRay has has to at least be sustained, if not grown before we'll know for sure.

It'll be interesting to see if a Studio thinks there's enough profitabilty in HD-DVD to withdraw it's exlusive support, and offer titles in both formats, even if BluRay is winning. These guys might just want a bigger piece of a bigger pie. For this reason, I think it's too early to write off HD-DVD just yet. But then again, it would seem Universal would have the most compeling reason to make that switch...

Sit back and see what happens, I guess.

Woochifer

03-02-2007, 10:48 AM

Wow, you work for FULVUEDRIVE-IN.com? We could use movie reviewer here...hint, hint..
Back OT, not sure what the coverage of HD titles by a review site has to do with the sales trends and predicting a format war winner? Can you elaborate?

Yup, sounds like a familiar script to you too, eh? :lol:

I think there's some merit to what Wooch is saying - so far the majority of Studios have held to their guns supporting BluRay, and BluRay in turn has gathered some unexpected early momentum. This usually doesn't happen in format wars, and when it does it's even more rare to see the trailing format recover and pull off a victory. If I had to guess now, I'd be split between BluRay winning, and both formats continuing to exist indefinitely, though I think the latter is unlikely because the industry benefits much more from one format. I think it's extremely unlikely HD-DVD can emerge the winner now. For the good of the industry, I hope one side wins in clear fashion. Not like SACD beat out DVD-A (and I suppose the jury's still out on that as both formats enjoy the sporadic new release). Originally I picked HD-DVD because it was suppose to be cheaper. I thought this make it an easy win. That hasn't been the case, they're aren't cheaper (at least in my neck of the woods, and not significantly so from what I've seen) so I'm indifferent now.

I tend to think that HD-DVD had a more successful launch than anyone expected. If you'll recall, the Blu-ray proponents early on were claiming that HD-DVD would have inferior performance and be limited to 1080i. Once Toshiba got the firmware releases out, HD-DVD built up a lot of good will by performing a lot better than anyone expected and coming in at an attractive entry price. And with 1080p capability, HD-DVD has been every bit the equal of Blu-ray in terms of picture and audio quality.

On the other hand, Blu-ray had a problematic launch, and was hampered by production delays, capacity constraints due to the lack of reliable dual-layered disc media, a less-than-stellar debut player from Samsung, and the lack of authoring tools for MPEG-4 and VC-1 compression on the initial set of Blu-ray releases (forcing those discs to use the less efficient MPEG-2 compression). But, while those issues (that have since been resolved) created an early perception that Blu-ray was "losing" the format war, Blu-ray still had a larger stable of manufacturing partners on board, and a decided advantage with studio support. The sales trends since November are more a reflection of that advantage anything.

HD-DVD's price advantage on the hardware front will likely remain intact since Toshiba is licensing off-brand manufacturers. While the disc prices have up to this point been equal, I noticed that the Blu-ray discs for The Prestige and Casino Royale carry list prices of $38, which is $8 higher than the DVD. I would hope that this isn't a sign of the Blu-ray camp declaring victory by creating a bloated price premium, but it would not surprise me if this was the case.

I also think Nightflier's right in his assessment that loyalty to either format is on a day-to-day basis, so she ain't over 'till it's over. But until I see an HD-DVD from Fox or Disney, I can't see HD-DVD making this battle even close in the long-term. If I were BluRay I'd be slapping a sticker on every single piece of hardware that states something to this effect, thus creating a deterrent to buying HD-DVD players. As store selection builds,up and shelf space gets scarce retailers are going to have to choose which formats to stock. If BluRay is significantly closer to being the one-size fits all solution, stores are going to pick BluRay. Right now, it seems pretty evenly split in the stores I visit. Though neither displays are all the impressive.

Agreed. So long as you don't have major changes to how the market is structured, Blu-ray can only widen its lead. These changes aren't outside the rhelm of possibility, but a lot has to happen for HD-DVD just to compete on an even basis, while Blu-ray only needs neutrality from Universal to effectively put the format war to an end. Today, the Digital Bits (http://www.thedigitalbits.com/rumormill.html) reported the upcoming HD-DVD release schedule from Universal, but also indicated that rumors are buzzing that Universal's home video division has "some executive upheaval" in progress. The earlier rumors about Fox and/or Disney going neutral have been emphatically snuffed out since then.

Most buyers are on the fence still. That's the key. If by this time next year there's more titles available on BluRay, and BluRay continues to boast that it's outselling HD-DVD 2 to 1 or more, I think it's pretty safe to say the game is over.

The Betamax was already at a 2-to-1 disadvantage by the time video rental stores started appearing. The format war for Beta IMO was lost on the retail side, because video stores consistently stocked more VHS titles, even though both formats had equal studio support.

And let's not kid ourselves here - all the posturing BluRay is doing now is exactly what it takes to win a format war. Doesn't matter if it's 100% accurate, or even close to being true, if the public percieves it to be true, and it influences buying decisions, the goal is accomplished.
HD-DVD has to start increasing demand, and supply (on the software side)! It's hard to increase demand if primary function of the unit is significantly limited (fewer available titles to play in the future) than your competitor. It's hard to increase the supply of the software if the sales figures the Studios are reading suggest BluRay has significant momentum now, simply because there's less incentive to support a losing format.

Both sides have been doing their share of posturing, but it just seems that the Blu-ray Association is going all out on all fronts to win the format war. You're right that the reality doesn't matter, so long as the perception is created. I see no such PR effort coming from the HD-DVD camp.

Personally, I think this format war has to end ASAP for sake of the HD disc market. HD downloading and on-demand services have an opportunity to step into the breach so long as the HD disc media market remains constrained by the uncertainty that the format war has created. Right now, I think the majority of consumers remain more comfortable with standalone players and disc media, but that will change and for HD-DVD and Blu-ray alike, they need to get their installed base in place before competing services gain a foothold. IMO, that's the more interesting format war coming up.

PeruvianSkies

03-02-2007, 10:48 PM

Wow, you work for FULVUEDRIVE-IN.com? We could use movie reviewer here...hint, hint..
Back OT, not sure what the coverage of HD titles by a review site has to do with the sales trends and predicting a format war winner? Can you elaborate?

I think there's some merit to what Wooch is saying - so far the majority of Studios have held to their guns supporting BluRay, and BluRay in turn has gathered some unexpected early momentum. This usually doesn't happen in format wars, and when it does it's even more rare to see the trailing format recover and pull off a victory. If I had to guess now, I'd be split between BluRay winning, and both formats continuing to exist indefinitely, though I think the latter is unlikely because the industry benefits much more from one format. I think it's extremely unlikely HD-DVD can emerge the winner now. For the good of the industry, I hope one side wins in clear fashion. Not like SACD beat out DVD-A (and I suppose the jury's still out on that as both formats enjoy the sporadic new release). Originally I picked HD-DVD because it was suppose to be cheaper. I thought this make it an easy win. That hasn't been the case, they're aren't cheaper (at least in my neck of the woods, and not significantly so from what I've seen) so I'm indifferent now.

It's not the people who already bought HD-DVD or BluRay players who will decide the outcome, but rather the will-be buyers. If I had to buy a player, and I knew that 75% of studios backed BluRay, and thus 75% of movies are guaranteed to be on that format, I'd buy a BluRay player. Just seems drastically less risky. Than picking the format with a downside of 25%. Herd-mentality is how a consumer-based economy works, people follow the leader.

I also think Nightflier's right in his assessment that loyalty to either format is on a day-to-day basis, so she ain't over 'till it's over. But until I see an HD-DVD from Fox or Disney, I can't see HD-DVD making this battle even close in the long-term. If I were BluRay I'd be slapping a sticker on every single piece of hardware that states something to this effect, thus creating a deterrent to buying HD-DVD players. As store selection builds,up and shelf space gets scarce retailers are going to have to choose which formats to stock. If BluRay is significantly closer to being the one-size fits all solution, stores are going to pick BluRay. Right now, it seems pretty evenly split in the stores I visit. Though neither displays are all the impressive.

Most buyers are on the fence still. That's the key. If by this time next year there's more titles available on BluRay, and BluRay continues to boast that it's outselling HD-DVD 2 to 1 or more, I think it's pretty safe to say the game is over.

And let's not kid ourselves here - all the posturing BluRay is doing now is exactly what it takes to win a format war. Doesn't matter if it's 100% accurate, or even close to being true, if the public percieves it to be true, and it influences buying decisions, the goal is accomplished.
HD-DVD has to start increasing demand, and supply (on the software side)! It's hard to increase demand if primary function of the unit is significantly limited (fewer available titles to play in the future) than your competitor. It's hard to increase the supply of the software if the sales figures the Studios are reading suggest BluRay has significant momentum now, simply because there's less incentive to support a losing format.

All I can say is it's still early, so any momentum BluRay has has to at least be sustained, if not grown before we'll know for sure.

It'll be interesting to see if a Studio thinks there's enough profitabilty in HD-DVD to withdraw it's exlusive support, and offer titles in both formats, even if BluRay is winning. These guys might just want a bigger piece of a bigger pie. For this reason, I think it's too early to write off HD-DVD just yet. But then again, it would seem Universal would have the most compeling reason to make that switch...

Sit back and see what happens, I guess.

First, let's start with the basics of why a 'review' site exists. First, it exists to inform the consumer. Wait, let's stop there. The purpose of the website that I write for is purely non-advertisement, which means we don't get kick backs for writing reviews, in fact the only payment we receive is free product. We are solely committed to informing the consumer and we try to be as fair as possible with our critiquing.

So, how does that effect sales? It can help or hurt sales for one. Apparently you thought that these two things were night and day. While we don't get money for the sales of certain titles, we are certainly in favor of people buying good product. If you check our reviews and comments for the HD formats you will see that we are trying to keep the consumer as informed as possible. Other sites are not adequently covering the HD formats, therefore there seems to be less consumer knowledge out there about the formats, or the quality of the formats.

When I read a good DVD review on a website I am likely to be inclined to check it out or be curious, same with HD formats, but even more imperative as we are trying to help these formats succeed. Our reviews are free advertising for the product. We endorse the quality ones and we reject the ones that are subpar. If more websites would begin to do HD reviews and help to push the market I think it would clearly make this format war go quicker.

PeruvianSkies

03-02-2007, 10:51 PM

Yup, sounds like a familiar script to you too, eh? :lol:

I tend to think that HD-DVD had a more successful launch than anyone expected. If you'll recall, the Blu-ray proponents early on were claiming that HD-DVD would have inferior performance and be limited to 1080i. Once Toshiba got the firmware releases out, HD-DVD built up a lot of good will by performing a lot better than anyone expected and coming in at an attractive entry price. And with 1080p capability, HD-DVD has been every bit the equal of Blu-ray in terms of picture and audio quality.

On the other hand, Blu-ray had a problematic launch, and was hampered by production delays, capacity constraints due to the lack of reliable dual-layered disc media, a less-than-stellar debut player from Samsung, and the lack of authoring tools for MPEG-4 and VC-1 compression on the initial set of Blu-ray releases (forcing those discs to use the less efficient MPEG-2 compression). But, while those issues (that have since been resolved) created an early perception that Blu-ray was "losing" the format war, Blu-ray still had a larger stable of manufacturing partners on board, and a decided advantage with studio support. The sales trends since November are more a reflection of that advantage anything.

HD-DVD's price advantage on the hardware front will likely remain intact since Toshiba is licensing off-brand manufacturers. While the disc prices have up to this point been equal, I noticed that the Blu-ray discs for The Prestige and Casino Royale carry list prices of $38, which is $8 higher than the DVD. I would hope that this isn't a sign of the Blu-ray camp declaring victory by creating a bloated price premium, but it would not surprise me if this was the case.

Agreed. So long as you don't have major changes to how the market is structured, Blu-ray can only widen its lead. These changes aren't outside the rhelm of possibility, but a lot has to happen for HD-DVD just to compete on an even basis, while Blu-ray only needs neutrality from Universal to effectively put the format war to an end. Today, the Digital Bits (http://www.thedigitalbits.com/rumormill.html) reported the upcoming HD-DVD release schedule from Universal, but also indicated that rumors are buzzing that Universal's home video division has "some executive upheaval" in progress. The earlier rumors about Fox and/or Disney going neutral have been emphatically snuffed out since then.

The Betamax was already at a 2-to-1 disadvantage by the time video rental stores started appearing. The format war for Beta IMO was lost on the retail side, because video stores consistently stocked more VHS titles, even though both formats had equal studio support.

Both sides have been doing their share of posturing, but it just seems that the Blu-ray Association is going all out on all fronts to win the format war. You're right that the reality doesn't matter, so long as the perception is created. I see no such PR effort coming from the HD-DVD camp.

Personally, I think this format war has to end ASAP for sake of the HD disc market. HD downloading and on-demand services have an opportunity to step into the breach so long as the HD disc media market remains constrained by the uncertainty that the format war has created. Right now, I think the majority of consumers remain more comfortable with standalone players and disc media, but that will change and for HD-DVD and Blu-ray alike, they need to get their installed base in place before competing services gain a foothold. IMO, that's the more interesting format war coming up.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blahhhhhhhhhh. The almighty Wooch has graced us with his infinite knowledge once again. One word: YAWN. I am just excited to hear what his ever-so-snappy comeback will be this time? Hmm, budget movie theater/xxx movie theaters....maybe he'll find some new material.

Woochifer

03-03-2007, 11:23 AM

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blahhhhhhhhhh. The almighty Wooch has graced us with his infinite knowledge once again. One word: YAWN. I am just excited to hear what his ever-so-snappy comeback will be this time? Hmm, budget movie theater/xxx movie theaters....maybe he'll find some new material.

Translation of the latest PeruvianSkies/wannabeebrokenprinterdiscreviewerdude cry room tantrum: Me gots nothin' substantive to add, but me desperate for attention! WAAAAAHHHH!!!

PeruvianSkies

03-03-2007, 12:18 PM

Translation of the latest PeruvianSkies/wannabeebrokenprinterdiscreviewerdude cry room tantrum: Me gots nothin' substantive to add, but me desperate for attention! WAAAAAHHHH!!!

Good one. I should have known that instead of going for a straight-out-snappy-line that you would opt for the "translation" bit, since you obviously know me better than I know myself and are fit for translating what I said. Which is typical since you seem to think that your opinions, thoughts, and feelings about people are superior to their own about themselves.

kexodusc

03-03-2007, 01:34 PM

First, let's start with the basics of why a 'review' site exists. First, it exists to inform the consumer. Wait, let's stop there. The purpose of the website that I write for is purely non-advertisement, which means we don't get kick backs for writing reviews, in fact the only payment we receive is free product. We are solely committed to informing the consumer and we try to be as fair as possible with our critiquing.

So, how does that effect sales? It can help or hurt sales for one. Apparently you thought that these two things were night and day. While we don't get money for the sales of certain titles, we are certainly in favor of people buying good product. If you check our reviews and comments for the HD formats you will see that we are trying to keep the consumer as informed as possible. Other sites are not adequently covering the HD formats, therefore there seems to be less consumer knowledge out there about the formats, or the quality of the formats.

When I read a good DVD review on a website I am likely to be inclined to check it out or be curious, same with HD formats, but even more imperative as we are trying to help these formats succeed. Our reviews are free advertising for the product. We endorse the quality ones and we reject the ones that are subpar. If more websites would begin to do HD reviews and help to push the market I think it would clearly make this format war go quicker.

Great, so from this you are implying your little website, which is read by X fraction of a percent of the HD video market somehow influences the format war when combined with the influence of all the other similar review sites...let the quality of the product determine the winner...I can see the logic in that...it's just terribly hard to get that complete message out of:

THE DIGITAL BITS acts like there is hardly any product for either format, and their reviews for the HD formats are few and far between, yet there are hundreds of titles available now. At FULVUEDRIVE-IN.COM we have covered nearly every HD title released to this date!!!
That just seemed like self-promotion vs a competing site without relevance to the thread or any discussion of how reviews could influence a format war. My apologies.

So, why not post some reviews here at this site, and further contribute to the cause of helping consumers sift between the good and subpar HD titles...we promise to pay you the same (less any product). Maybe just simul-post your reviews? Could generate some discussion on HD titles if nothing else...