The Obligatory Oscar Thread...

[tugmcmartin]

So, now that the nominations are out, what would you consider as surprises (if you think there were any)? Who/What are your picks for the big categories?

A few surprises for me:

No "Cold Mountain" for Best Picture. I thought Cold Mountain was a much better movie than Master and Commander so i'm surprised to see one in and the other out.
No Nicole Kidman for her Cold Mountain role and no Tom Cruise for his Last Samaurai role. I didn't particularly like Nicole in Cold Mountain, but thought for sure the "Academy" was gonna cream their collective shorts over her. Haven't seen Last Samaurai, but from the buzz i thought Cruise might've been nominated.
Two relative no-names get the nod for best actress. Keisha Castle-Hughes and Samantha Morton? Who are these gals? Haven't seen either movie they're in so can't really comment on their performances.
Fernando Meirelles getting a nod for best director for his City of God. Nice to see the "Academy" can get away from the traditional big studio crap.
My picks (not who/what i think should win, but who/what i think will win):
Best Picture - Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (more for the collection of the trilogy as a whole)
Best Actor - Bill Murray gets an "upset" win over Penn.
Best Actress - Charlize Theron
Supporting Actor - Tim Robbins
Supporting Actress - Rene Zellweger
Director - Coppola seems to be this years darling so she gets the nod over Jackson.

T-

[Troy]

Here's a few more thoughts . . .

Depp in Pirates getting a best actor nod is pathetic. That performance was SO affected and one dimensional . . . Why not Billy Bob in "Bad Santa"?

The Girls in "Whale Rider"? What, are you kidding me? How can this wooden little girl get a nom, and that Osmet kid not for "6th Sense"?

Great to see the truly bizarre "Triplets of Belleville" get an animation nod. I'll watch "Sound of Music" twice if it beats Nemo. But it should because it's so stylish and different as compared to the swell, but boringly childish and obvious Nemo.

I think "Lord of the Rings" will win, but "Seabuiscuit" is the kind of movie that wins best picture. Had it come out in November . . . "Lost in translation" is the dark horse.

Actor goes to Murray. Penn is stongly disliked in Hollywood.

Theron is shoe-in for Monster. Haven't seen it, but who hasn't heard how stunning she is in it?

Yeah, Coppola is this years darling and will win for director.

[JSE]

I would love to see Depp get best actor for his role in Pirates but I think it's a long shot at best. I really think he did a great job but it's just not what the Academy looks for. I think Murray will get it in the end and he deserves it.

JSE

[yamdsp-a1]

Best Picture - Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (more for the collection of the trilogy as a whole)
Best Actor - Sean Penn - Hasn't won and deserves to
Best Actress - Charlize Theron - hasn't even been nominated before and she is due
Supporting Actor - Ken Watanabe - Academy will try to bring in some more ethnicity
Supporting Actress - Shohreh Aghdashloo - Academy will try to right any perceived wrongs resulting from Iraq. As much as I like Renee for this, I think the academy may wait and give it to her for Best Actress, which she properly deserves. Not too often that an actress gets both Best and Best Supporting in her lifetime. Joanne Woodward? Maybe?
Director - Jackson, Jackson Jackson. He owns this category.

Anyway, those are my guesses based on years of Academy viewing.

My Preference list would change as follows:

Best Actor Bill Murray (he may get it too)
Supporting Actor - Benicio Del Toro
Supporting Actress - Renee