Bill Gates call Blu-ray Anti-consumer.

[Smokey]

As you all know, recently Microsoft endorsed HD-DVD over Blu-ray. He gave an interview to Princetonian about this issue, and he called Blu-ray format not consumer friendly.

Here is what he said:

“Well, the key issue here is that the protection scheme under Blu-ray is very anti-consumer and there's not much visibility of that. The inconvenience is that the [movie] studios got too much protection at the expense of consumers and it won't work well on PCs. You won't be able to play movies and do software in a flexible way.

It's not the physical format that we have the issue with, it's that the protection scheme on Blu is very anti-consumer. If [the Blu-ray group] would fix that one thing, you know, that'd be fine.”

He didn’t go into more detail than that, but I wished they asked him what protection scheme HD-DVD got that set it apart from Blu-ray.

http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/archives/2005/10/14/news/13474.shtml

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

As you all know, recently Microsoft endorsed HD-DVD over Blu-ray. He gave an interview to Princetonian about this issue, and he called Blu-ray format is not very consumer friendly.

Here is what he said:

“Well, the key issue here is that the protection scheme under Blu-ray is very anti-consumer and there's not much visibility of that. The inconvenience is that the [movie] studios got too much protection at the expense of consumers and it won't work well on PCs. You won't be able to play movies and do software in a flexible way.

It's not the physical format that we have the issue with, it's that the protection scheme on Blu is very anti-consumer. If [the Blu-ray group] would fix that one thing, you know, that'd be fine.”

He didn’t go into more detail than that, but I wished they asked him what protection scheme HD-DVD got that set it apart from Blu-ray.

http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/archives/2005/10/14/news/13474.shtml

His comments are so self serving its pitiful. He wants bluray to be streamed through networks throughout your household via the computer running windows loseless media player. Bluray doesn't want windows media player in its specification, and he is not happy about that. HD-DVD however does include the ability to do what he asks, and therefore it gets his blessing. Oh, its about the consumer Mr Gates huh? LOL

[Woochifer]

A monopolist advocating for the benefit of the average consumer, don't make me laugh! :)

As Terrence said, there's nothing that comes out of Gates' piehole that doesn't serve his own ends. My understanding is that HD-DVD uses a Microsoft Windows Media codec, while Blu-ray is a Microsoft-free zone. If Blu-ray used the Windows Media codecs, you think that Gates would be complaining about the copy protections?

And the Xbox 360 has already hitched its wagon to HD-DVD for the first upgrade ... oops! With the momentum in the market fully in Blu-ray's favor, it's all just sour grapes on Microsoft's part.

[Geoffcin]

A monopolist advocating for the benefit of the average consumer, don't make me laugh! :)


I've looked at the specs on the BlueRay, and the protection is onerious to consumers. Players will need to be hooked up to phone lines, and if a non-protected disk is played in them it will render the player useless. BlueRay sinister hidden specs are nothing but an attempt by the the MP industry to take back the freedoms that WE the consumers have enjoyed since they lost the betamax case. It's ironic that Sony is on the other side this time.

[Woochifer]

I've looked at the specs on the BlueRay, and the protection is onerious to consumers. Players will need to be hooked up to phone lines, and if a non-protected disk is played in them it will render the player useless. BlueRay sinister hidden specs are nothing but an attempt by the the MP industry to take back the freedoms that WE the consumers have enjoyed since they lost the betamax case. It's ironic that Sony is on the other side this time.

My understanding though is that HD-DVD would have similar restrictions in place in response to pressure from the studios. The format war was but one of the many obstacles that the next gen DVDs would have to overcome. Even with a unified format, the proposed restrictions on analog video output and the copy protection schemes were already huge market barriers.

[Geoffcin]

My understanding though is that HD-DVD would have similar restrictions in place in response to pressure from the studios. The format war was but one of the many obstacles that the next gen DVDs would have to overcome. Even with a unified format, the proposed restrictions on analog video output and the copy protection schemes were already huge market barriers.

HD-DVD is also proposing robust copy protection, but the BlueRay specs are just stupid.
Format wars aside, I can see damaged disks, (and BlueRay disks are MUCH more likely to be damaged) causing player failures. If a player is disabled because of the media then it's just not going to work in the marketplace. BlueRay protection specs are more invasive, and likely to cause many problems for the consumer.

[nightflier]

It's ironic that Sony is on the other side this time.

Sony wanted this phone-home ability on HD-DVD as well, but they just didn't get their way. Although I believe they are still pushing for a similar process, but not in real-time (i.e. it will phone-home whenever the player is connected again). And that is really the problem, I don't want anyone monitoring what I watch or listen to. It's none of their business. If because of this mistrust I have to support those who copy movies & music illegally, then so be it. It's not something I care to do, but if anyone else wants to, go ahead.

The fact is that both Gates and Stringer are attempting to get around fair-use, this time at the expense of my privacy. And does anyone really believe that once they start building massive databases full of entertainment information about millions of people, they won't try to profit from it? The market will dictate that they will have to.

And I also don't believe our politicians care to change this. Either they are so old that they don't understand the technology (Feinstein are you reading this?), or they are already owned by the very companies who would sell my info to the devil if it made them a buck. Don't our founding documents say something about when government no longer acts in the interest of the people, the people have a duty to act in their own interests? This is what copiers are doing.

Napster grew less because people wanted to break the law than that they were utterly frustrated with the draconian control over music distribution that the big companies enjoyed. Likewise, the first open source Linux DVD player grew out this frustration. From there it was the same code that "cracked" DVD copy protection. Maybe if the industry had just distributed a freely downloadable cross-platform player with no strings attached, it would have taken years longer for the crack to appear and it probably would never have been so widely available. Now we will see this whole scenario occur again, with HD-DVD and BlueRay cracks spreading across the internet maybe even before the disks and players are widely available. I sure hope so, because the industry has learned nothing from the last ten years. Their drive for profit clouds their ability to grow and change. Hopefully this time, we'll see competing technologies and startups that will see an opportunity there. Maybe the behemoth multinational media companies are so large that they can no longer function competitively and are due for their own breakups.

One can only dream...

[Smokey]

Thanks guys for interesting comments so far.

I looked at both formats copyright protection protocol, and it seem both format use copyprotection scheme call AACS (Advanced Access Content System). The difference between both formats on this matter is that on HD-DVD, AACS enable moving content off your disc, and, say, onto your Portable Media using Digital Rights Management scheme. But AACS on Blu-ray is not flexible in that regard.

And requirement of hooking up to phone line to play HD disc is really bizarre. It is right down invasion of privacy any way one look at it :mad:

[paul_pci]

Thanks guys for interesting comments so far.

I looked at both formats copyright protection protocol, and it seem both format use copyprotection scheme call AACS (Advanced Access Content System). The difference between both formats on this matter is that on HD-DVD, AACS enable moving content off your disc, and, say, onto your Portable Media using Digital Rights Management scheme. But AACS on Blu-ray is not flexible in that regard.

And requirement of hooking up to phone line to play HD disc is really bizarre. It is right down invasion of privacy any way one look at it :mad:

Given the proliferation of cell phones and consumers dropping land lines, what is one to do if you don't have a phone line?

[kexodusc]

With the momentum in the market fully in Blu-ray's favor, it's all just sour grapes on Microsoft's part.
I must have missed something big. What momentum are you referring to here? I haven't seen anything remotely positive from either camp yet. Just a few dates being pushed back, and a general hesitation on both sides, not looking forward to a format war.

Has something significant happened that is giving BluRay an edge?

[Sir Terrence the Terrible]

I must have missed something big. What momentum are you referring to here? I haven't seen anything remotely positive from either camp yet. Just a few dates being pushed back, and a general hesitation on both sides, not looking forward to a format war.

Has something significant happened that is giving BluRay an edge?

Indeed something has. All hollywood studio's except Universal have come out in support of Bluray. Now that Warner has announced support of bluray, there is really nothing propping HD DVD up. Universal is now under pressure to support Bluray or they will be the only studio supporting a losing format. Bluray now has the movie and over 50 percent of the music business in its back pocket.

[kexodusc]

Indeed something has. All hollywood studio's except Universal have come out in support of Bluray. Now that Warner has announced support of bluray, there is really nothing propping HD DVD up. Universal is now under pressure to support Bluray or they will be the only studio supporting a losing format. Bluray now has the movie and over 50 percent of the music business in its back pocket.

As an audio enthusiast, this gets me excited...just to play devils advocate though, as an analyst this gets a big fat "So what?"

What you aren't telling me is that the support isn't mutually exclusive, nor is it perpetually binding. So they studio's are saying, we like BluRay and HD-DVD, and will be happy to sell our titles through whoever eventually wins. Most studios are hedging their bets here, taking the wait and see attitude. Given the consumer spending concerns over the next year or so, I'd be surprised if either gets the push they've been promising.

HD-DVD has already cut back some of their releases, BluRay probably isn't in as big a rush now either. It's not a race, it's a war of attrition. And it could be a cold war at that.

I still think this will ultimately get resolved by Toshiba deciding the incremental gains of owning the format are nothing compared to the sales of the eventually dominant hardware. Sony has a history of fighting these things out to the bitter end, regardless of how much they lose.

[Geoffcin]

As an audio enthusiast, this gets me excited...just to play devils advocate though, as an analyst this gets a big fat "So what?"


With DVD's so cheap, and HD programming on cable & sat, why spend another $500 or more for a player with such a limited amount of software. SONYalready blew it with SACD when they didn't make the BIG leap (cowards) and move all of their new releases to it, I think the BlueRay debacle will be very similar.

Oh, and nobody from Sony is talking about how fragile the BlueRay disks are going to be. With the media just .01mm from the surface, even a small scuff will cause problems. I can see a whole buch of angry consumers demanding refunds on BlueRay disks that have failed from only a tiny scratch. BlueRay is sure to draw a class-action suit from this major defect in their tech.

[kexodusc]

With DVD's so cheap, and HD programming on cable & sat, why spend another $500 or more for a player with such a limited amount of software. SONYalready blew it with SACD when they didn't make the BIG leap (cowards) and move all of their new releases to it, I think the BlueRay debacle will be very similar.

Oh, and nobody from Sony is talking about how fragile the BlueRay disks are going to be. With the media just .01mm from the surface, even a small scuff will cause problems. I can see a whole buch of angry consumers demanding refunds on BlueRay disks that have failed from only a tiny scratch. BlueRay is sure to draw a class-action suit from this major defect in their tech.

Reliability. Durability. Longevity. Sony.

[GMichael]

Reliability. Durability. Longevity. Sony.

I thought that Sony had been slipping a little in these departments. I have only bought two Sony items in my lifetime. Both have broken down. All my other electroncs still work.

[GMichael]

I did not write this. It is a copy and paste. Credits below:


HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray: The Next Format War
Bill Livolsi, August 31, 2005
ProjectorCentral.com
First came the battle between VHS and Betamax for the home video market. Betamax tapes had superior image quality, but were more costly than VHS; the Betamax format is now extinct. Next came the much quieter battle between Sony and Philips' MMCD format and the SD format backed by a host of companies, including Toshiba, Matsu****a (Panasonic) and Time-Warner. The first of these "format wars" ended with a clear victor after years of costly struggle; the second ended in a compromise which gave birth to the DVD format as we know it today.

We are now in the midst of another format war, this time over the future of in-home high-definition media. On one side is HD-DVD, a format created by Toshiba and NEC; on the other side is Blu-Ray, created by Sony, Matsu****a, and Philips. Each format has significant backing, and the first consumer units are scheduled to be released within months. It is no longer a question of which format is "better." The debate now is about which format will catch on faster, and therefore win.


HD-DVD
The HD-DVD format, developed and proposed by Toshiba and NEC, was introduced to the DVD Forum in November of 2003 and approved as the next-generation DVD format. The DVD Forum was founded by the companies involved in the original DVD format war to make sure that compromises could be reached regarding the future of the format. Since Blu-Ray was never submitted for consideration, it could not be approved or rejected by the DVD Forum.

HD-DVD discs, at the time of this writing, promise a single-layer capacity of 15 gigabytes, or over three times that of single-layer DVDs. They accomplish this by using a blue-violet laser with a shorter wavelength than the red laser used in current DVD drives. This means that discs can have information more tightly packed on the disc, enabling far greater storage capacity on the same size disc. Dual-layer discs are capable of holding 30GB, and Toshiba has announced a prototype three-layer disc with a capacity of 45GB. These discs are capable of holding between two and five hours of high-definition video with audio track.

The primary advantage of this format is a low manufacturing cost. Since HD-DVD media is so technically similar to standard DVD media (it uses the same layer thicknesses as DVD, made of similar materials), the discs can be produced with only a slight modification to existing manufacturing lines. This appealed to many companies, and led to an early rush of support from several large studios. Current supporters of HD-DVD include Toshiba, NEC, Sanyo, and Microsoft, in addition to New Line Cinema, Paramount, Universal, Time-Warner, and the official approval of the DVD Forum.


Blu-Ray
Blu-Ray Disc, or BD, was developed by Sony, Matsu****a, and Philips, with the first stages of development commencing back in 1995. Rather than propose the format to the DVD Forum, Sony appealed to major electronics companies, and many signed on in support of the format, creating the Blu-Ray Disc Association (BDA). Critics occasionally cite the fact that Blu-Ray did not go through official approval channels; however, at the time of this writing, at least seven of the DVD Forum's original ten founders now support Blu-Ray.

The potential capacity of Blu-Ray discs is, in a word, staggering. A single-layer disc can hold between 23 and 27 gigabytes of data, enough for four hours of high-definition video; a dual-layer disc can hold between 46 and 54GB, easily enough for eight full hours of high-definition programming*. Furthermore, since the layers on a Blu-Ray disc are so thin, there is potential for multi-layer discs with up to eight layers holding upwards of 200GB. TDK has announced a working prototype of a four-layer 100GB disc, but commercial availability of these high-capacity discs is several months away, at the least.

Blu-Ray's two main advantages are capacity and expandability, the potential for which has not yet been matched by HD-DVD. To add some perspective, most entry-level computer hard drives do not hold 200GB. 200GB is the equivalent of forty-five single-layer DVDs, or twenty-three double-layer DVDs. There is enough capacity to store over twenty full-length standard definition DVD movies on one disc, complete with special features and full digital audio.

Blu-Ray discs also have an advantage in durability, thanks to a special hard-coating developed by TDK. While CD and DVD media (and, presumably, HD-DVD) can be scratched by wiping with a tissue, Blu-Ray discs can reportedly withstand attack from a screwdriver (source here).

This technology comes with a significant price. Manufacturing Blu-Ray discs requires significant costs in updating DVD fabrication equipment, and would be a sharp manufacturer cost increase over HD-DVD. This initially led to slower adoption of support for the format, though later developments in the technology have recently enabled it to gain wider support from major electronic and PC manufacturers.

Current support for Blu-Ray includes PC makers Apple, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and Sony, and electronics giants Hitachi, LG, Mitsubishi Electric, Matsu****a/Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, TDK, and Thomson. Add to this the support by movie studios such as Columbia TriStar, Sony Pictures and MGM (all three owned by Sony), 20th Century Fox, Lions Gate Entertainment, and Disney, as well as video game makers Electronic Arts and Vivendi Universal Games, and the bastion of support for Blu-Ray looks formidable indeed.


The Format War
The situation as it stands today is complicated. On one hand we have the HD-DVD format, which holds less data but is, at the time of this writing, cheaper to produce**. On the other hand is Blu-Ray, with the potential for exponentially more capacity and durability, but with a significant manufacturer cost increase. Both players will offer features to ease the transition to HD, such as backwards-compatibility with standard CD and DVD media. While there were talks earlier this year to see if a possible compromise could be reached that ended in combining the two formats, these discussions collapsed with very little in terms of results. With equal studio support for each format, this war becomes a race to see which format gains wide adoption first.

HD-DVD had planned to gain an early advantage by widely releasing its products in 4th quarter of 2005, thereby saturating the market with HD-DVD drives and discs before Blu-Ray was released. At CES 2005, the makers of HD-DVD promised 85 titles released before the end of the year, while Blu-Ray has been planning a release in early-to-mid 2006. However, recent announcements have revealed that hardware and software shipments of HD-DVD material are smaller than expected. Paramount, which promised a release of 20 titles this year, is not releasing any until 2006. NBC Universal is now releasing 12 titles instead of 16, and Time Warner says that its plans are not definite yet, as it is waiting to see whether the two formats can compromise (source: "HD-DVD Rollout, Set for Holidays, Gets Scaled Back," The Wall Street Journal, August 2005). The result of this delay is that both formats' major releases will occur sometime in 2006.

Blu-Ray is expected to gain a major sales boost through Sony's Playstation 3 game console, for several reasons. The console will feature a Blu-Ray drive, and will be the first video game console to hit the market featuring a next-generation drive. While first-generation HD-DVD drives are estimated to cost nearly $1000, and first-generation Blu-Ray drives have already been released in Japan for nearly $2000, the Playstation 3 is rumored to feature a price tag between $300 and $600, making it more affordable to the average consumer. At least initially, Blu-Ray drives may be more accessible due, in large part, to the Playstation 3.

Also, consider this. When Sony's Playstation 2 was released, a majority of Playstation 1 owners rushed out immediately to attempt to buy the new console. While there was a supply shortage in the US, the stock that made it to the States sold almost immediately. Sony deliberately kept the price of the new console very low so that it would be more accessible to more people. The result is that 100 million people worldwide own Playstation 1 consoles, and 90 million people worldwide own Playstation 2s. If this strategy is repeated once more with the Playstation 3, and if Sony can keep up with demand, Blu-Ray could gain an enormous amount of market share in a very short time.

With the support of major computer manufacturers, consumers could start to see PCs with Blu-Ray drives as early as the end of 2005, according to Hewlett-Packard. In PC applications, the larger capacity of Blu-Ray is alluring simply from a data storage standpoint.


Conclusion
No one knows what the outcome of this format war will be – it all depends on which format consumers can get more cheaply, more quickly, with more movies available for it. Blu-Ray is technologically superior, true; however, the VHS and Betamax war shows that the technologically superior product does not always win. Sales of DVD drives and media only really took off after DVD player prices dropped below $300, and with HD-DVD's lower manufacturing costs, this could prove to be a large benefit. However, Sony claims that within a few months of launch, Blu-Ray media will be priced within 10% of current DVD prices. With the first products set to hit the market by Christmas of this year, 2006 is going to be an interesting year for High Definition.

* The amount of high definition content that can be stored on a disc is entirely dependent upon the codec used to encode said content. Using standard MPEG-2 DVD compression, a single-layer Blu-Ray disc could hold two hours of HD programming, but with MPEG-4 or VC-1 compression this roughly doubles.

** Due to the speed at which these technologies are changing, a discussion of consumer pricing would be premature. It is certainly possible, however, that higher manufacturing costs may lead to higher end costs for consumers.

[kexodusc]

I was just being sarcastic about Sony's reliability and durability history. Your article suggests HD-DVD is seriously at a durability disadvantage if it is indeed only as tough as CD and DVD. Then again, I can count on 1 hand the number of times in the last 10 years I've had durability issues with media. And I dare say those few times would probably have damaged a BluRay as well...At least it's good to hear it's not a soft format.

[GMichael]

I was just being sarcastic about Sony's reliability and durability history. Your article suggests HD-DVD is seriously at a durability disadvantage if it is indeed only as tough as CD and DVD. Then again, I can count on 1 hand the number of times in the last 10 years I've had durability issues with media. And I dare say those few times would probably have damaged a BluRay as well...At least it's good to hear it's not a soft format.

You read all of that already? OK speedy, pull it over.

[Geoffcin]

I was just being sarcastic about Sony's reliability and durability history. Your article suggests HD-DVD is seriously at a durability disadvantage if it is indeed only as tough as CD and DVD. Then again, I can count on 1 hand the number of times in the last 10 years I've had durability issues with media. And I dare say those few times would probably have damaged a BluRay as well...At least it's good to hear it's not a soft format.
The BlueRay disks were so unreliable that they would have to be hard jacketed (like a floppy) for fear of damage. The hardcoat tech is what made them even viable in the first place. This hardcoat tech can be applied to ALL hard plastic based media, not just BlueRay where it's ABSOLUTELY nessassary. The real fact is that the focus point for the BlueRay disk is so close to the surface that just a light fingerprint can make it unreadable.

[kexodusc]

The BlueRay disks were so unreliable that they would have to be hard jacketed (like a floppy) for fear of damage. The hardcoat tech is what made them even viable in the first place. This hardcoat tech can be applied to ALL hard plastic based media, not just BlueRay where it's ABSOLUTELY nessassary. The real fact is that the focus point for the BlueRay disk is so close to the surface that just a light fingerprint can make it unreadable.
I won't pretend to be an expert on this subject, but either the laser gets through or it doesn't? Right? That finger print either impedes the laser or not? If it can read the disc, and the disc isn't damaged physically, how is BluRay or HD-DVD affected by the proximity of the focus point to the surface?
Isn't it just a question of being too gooey to see through?

[Geoffcin]

I won't pretend to be an expert on this subject, but either the laser gets through or it doesn't? Right? That finger print either impedes the laser or not? If it can read the disc, and the disc isn't damaged physically, how is BluRay or HD-DVD affected by the proximity of the focus point to the surface?
Isn't it just a question of being too gooey to see through?

The closer the focal point to the obstruction the more the laser ability to read the data will be affected.

It's the same effect as photography. Something in the nearfield that's out of focus will not cause too much of a problem with making out what the focused subject is. ie. if there's a "softening" filter on the front of your lens, you can still make out the subject. Bob "vaseline" Guccione was a master of this effect. ;)

[kexodusc]

The closer the focal point to the obstruction the more the laser ability to read the data will be affected.

It's the same effect as photography. Something in the nearfield that's out of focus will not cause too much of a problem with making out what the focused subject is. ie. if there's a "softening" filter on the front of your lens, you can still make out the subject. Bob "vaseline" Guccione was a master of this effect. ;)

Tell the truth, Geoffcin, you're just making this stuff up, aren't you? :D
So if I get this right now...as long as it's clean, it should work, but the surface is pretty darn durable?
Okay...I can handle that.

[Woochifer]

Even if Blu-ray is the undisputed victor in the formatwarthatendedbeforeitgotstarted, its future is still very uncertain. Victory in the format war just removes one obstacle from a path that already had several others.

The copy protection schemes and analog output restrictions already represent a significant market barrier to the power users/early adopters who will need to buy the players and discs in droves at the outset. Plenty of them have already turned away from Blu-ray/HD-DVD simpy because of the required digital video connection. And the PS3 might add yet another wrinkle to the entire picture, because it will come in at around $500, which would undercut the anticipated prices for Blu-ray players by almost half.

For average consumers, the DVD horse has already left the barn, and they're not in any hurry to upgrade their players and repurchase their disc collections. When the DVD came along, it offered multiple enhancements over VHS and presented a compelling case to make the format switch. The only new features that Blu-ray offers over DVD are HD video and the new high resolution audio formats. For the 80-90% of U.S. households that do not own a HDTV and the 100% that do not own a DD-TrueHD or DTS-HD processor, what Blu-ray brings to the table will not matter much. Contrast this with the DVD, where just about anyone could see the higher picture quality (compared to VHS), enjoy the bonus features, and upgrade to multichannel audio. For the majority of consumers who've only upgraded to the DVD format within the last three years, DVD very well might be good enough.

Blu-ray's got a lot of work ahead. Getting the studios in line behind the format is only the beginning.

[Geoffcin]

Tell the truth, Geoffcin, you're just making this stuff up, aren't you? :D
So if I get this right now...as long as it's clean, it should work, but the surface is pretty darn durable?
Okay...I can handle that.
The surface of a BlueRay disk will have to be absolutely clean. So far as durability, that will be determined when and if they are in general use.

Not making it up; Used to be deep into photography before I got married. (she won't let me do it anymore :( ) Try a little vaseline on a UV filter over the lens for those private moment shots..... ;)

[nightflier]

...For the 80-90% of U.S. households that do not own a HDTV and the 100% that do not own a DD-TrueHD or DTS-HD processor, what Blu-ray brings to the table will not matter much...Blu-ray's got a lot of work ahead. Getting the studios in line behind the format is only the beginning.

But Isn't it true that standard (non-HDTV) broadcasts will soon be removed from the airwaves? I'm sure it will be pushed back several times, but currently it's supposed to be terminated in 2009, if I remember correctly. When that happens, I'm sure that the only access to media will be through a subscription based service.

That is why I suspect that this new format war is a non event; because the industry is pushing for downloadable content only. This way, there won't be any disks to own or copy anymore. All digital content will be limited-time use and non shareable. This is the wet dream that Gates, Stringer, Renzer, and Turner would like us all to slip into.

Certainly this is why Gates describes BlueRay as anti-consumer, that is, the format is not as conducive to a subscription-based distribution model.

[nightflier]

Not to add more fuel to the fire but:

China To Launch Next-Gen DVD Format (http://www.ultimateavmag.com/news/1013chinadvd/).

[Woochifer]

But Isn't it true that standard (non-HDTV) broadcasts will soon be removed from the airwaves? I'm sure it will be pushed back several times, but currently it's supposed to be terminated in 2009, if I remember correctly. When that happens, I'm sure that the only access to media will be through a subscription based service.

Actually, the only mandate is that ANALOG over-the-air broadcasts end sometime in the future. It only mandates that future broadcasts be digital, not necessarily that they broadcast in HD. And that future has been pushed back at least a couple of times. The original mandate required that analog broadcasts end in 2006. That termination date is now a lot more open ended, pretty much it will end only when the percentage of households buying digital-ready TVs reaches a majority of sets sold.

The other thing to consider is that most households get their broadcast TV thru cable and satellite, and those are still compatible with existing sets, so you are right about subscription services having a big role in the future.


That is why I suspect that this new format war is a non event; because the industry is pushing for downloadable content only. This way, there won't be any disks to own or copy anymore. All digital content will be limited-time use and non shareable. This is the wet dream that Gates, Stringer, Renzer, and Turner would like us all to slip into.

I think that's reason why there's such a huge push on right now to get Blu-ray and/or HD-DVD established in the market. The hardware manufacturers are well aware of the burgeoning competition from on-demand services, HD broadcasts, and downloaded content. With the DVD, all of these services will surpass the DVD's picture and audio quality in a relatively short time.

All of this nonsense could have been avoided if the DVD hadn't been rushed to market so quickly. I've said many times on this board that the DVD should have been a HD format from the very beginning. The digital TV specs were approved back in 1992, well before development on the DVD format was finalized. The players in the DVD consortium have viewed the DVD as an interim format (or at least that's what they're saying now). Problem is that they created an interim format that's now installed in almost 100 million households, with a lot of them already investing a huge amount into their disc libraries. The studios and the hardware manufacturers were well aware that HDTV was on the horizon, but they got greedy and created a non-HD disc format on the presumption that they could persuade consumers to invest in an all-new HD format once it became available. All they have to do is look at the marketing disaster of DVD-A and SACD to see what can happen when they make these kinds of presumptions (and what can happen when draconian copy protection schemes detract from the practical functioning of a format).

[nightflier]

Actually, the only mandate is that ANALOG over-the-air broadcasts end sometime in the future. It only mandates that future broadcasts be digital, not necessarily that they broadcast in HD. And that future has been pushed back at least a couple of times. The original mandate required that analog broadcasts end in 2006. That termination date is now a lot more open ended, pretty much it will end only when the percentage of households buying digital-ready TVs reaches a majority of sets sold.

But am I correct in presuming that my trusty old Panasonic non-HDTV will not be able to pick up digital broadcasts? It has rabbit ears, composite inputs, and a BNC cable hookup. Several of my neighbors have similar non-HDTV sets. These are not capable of receiving a digital broadcast, right?

One fact that the industry is forgetting is that so many people out there may have digital connections on their TV's and DVD players, but they use the cheapest cables they can get, which means that my neighbor for example has a new HDMI TV, DVD player, and cable box but he won't spend $100 on cables. He was just glad to get it hooked up and working. Until companies actually include decent quality cables with the units, many people will just use the basic ones that are usually included, and miss out on HD w/o knowing it.

Furthermore, with to many different connectors on the back of each unit competing for our dollars in a down economy, I'm not surprized that I see so many composite and s-video hookups. Actually for most people, the s-video/optical hookups are the simplest and cheapest standards they will pay extra for. Anything beyond that is still considered overkill.

I know this does not apply to most of us here, but just ask your own extended familty to see how they have things hooked up. Unless you've hooked it up for them, they probably won't even know how to answer your question. Another fun test is to go down to CC, BB, or GG and ask them what cable you should buy. The pimple-faced sales guy isn't going to know that either. BlueRay and HD-DVD is so far removed from most people's lives that downloadable content will arrive before they have replaced their players and beloved movie collections.

I think I'm going to buy some Cox & DishNetwork stock this week....

[snodog]

Sony and Microsoft are both greedy, and power-hungry. The gaming consoles are a reflection of the ongoing battle. Most people on this site would have a general idea of what to look for in newest media formats and what not, but the average person who shops at Best Buy would not. It would be up to those underachievers to educate them on what to buy. Hell, my parents never figured out how to set their damn clocks on the vcr, let alone figure out the differences in HD technology. For sure, I will be buying one as soon as I can but do hope that they can reconcile their differences and utilize players that will accomodate both formats for the average joe.

[Geoffcin]

Sony and Microsoft are both greedy, and power-hungry.

Yes I agree. This whole BlueRay/HD-DVD argument is more about world domination of the market than providing a next-gen solution for the public.

[CharlieBee]

Bluray has more capacity, so what. The junk they will add to the poor quality the basic movie is not worth the $30 cost they will charge.

They plan to keep sellling DVD's for years because that is what the masses own to play movies on, the players and computers.

Dream on Bluray. the consumer, both legal and illlega.l will determine the winners of the future.

Most importantly for you " gotta have it first types" remember

" the second mouse gets the cheese" and this will really apply here.

The picture benifits will not be worth not waiting several years to upgrade. The time of the $35 DVD player is still King and will be for several years.


Charlie

[snodog]

I think they will both be cutting their own throats so to speak by making it confusing for average consumers who will become irritated at having to worry wether or not they bought the right dvd. It is BS. There will eventually come a time when the damn dvd picture is only going to get so good unless they begin hologram video. I agree too, the junk that they will put on the dvd as extras will not be worth paying the extra money for. How often has it really ever been? I bought the lord of the rings movies and after paying double for the first special extended edition with hours of extra interviews and stuff I didnt really care about, wasnt about to do it with the others.

[hermanv]

But Isn't it true that standard (non-HDTV) broadcasts will soon be removed from the airwaves? I'm sure it will be pushed back several times, but currently it's supposed to be terminated in 2009, if I remember correctly. When that happens, I'm sure that the only access to media will be through a subscription based service.In theory the local stations will switch to an HDTV format. Then you will be able to receive commercials with an occasional few seconds of entertainment video, all in a non-subscription high definition format.

Of course all pay services will also include commercials some only for their own shows or services they offer.

Is this a great country or what?

[Woochifer]

But am I correct in presuming that my trusty old Panasonic non-HDTV will not be able to pick up digital broadcasts? It has rabbit ears, composite inputs, and a BNC cable hookup. Several of my neighbors have similar non-HDTV sets. These are not capable of receiving a digital broadcast, right?

The current mandate is for analog broadcasts to end by 2009, and that very well might happen because the only people that this will affect are people who still watch TV using over-the-air antennas. And those consumers are already way down in the minority of the overall TV audience. About 2/3 of all TVs are connected to cable, then you add satellite customers, and those TVs that are only used for DVDs or video games. What you have left is the shrinking analog broadcast audience. Digital tuners on new TVs are rapidly becoming commonplace (and I believe will soon be required on all TVs sold in the U.S.), so replacement sets will likely be compatible with the new broadcasts as well.

If you currently have cable or satellite, then presumably the providers will maintain analog compatibility as long as most of their customers demand it.


One fact that the industry is forgetting is that so many people out there may have digital connections on their TV's and DVD players, but they use the cheapest cables they can get, which means that my neighbor for example has a new HDMI TV, DVD player, and cable box but he won't spend $100 on cables. He was just glad to get it hooked up and working. Until companies actually include decent quality cables with the units, many people will just use the basic ones that are usually included, and miss out on HD w/o knowing it.

I think that issue is way off in the future. The termination of analog broadcasts is only one step among many that still lie ahead. The vast majority of cable and satellite receivers will still use the older analog video outputs. I also suspect that in the future, HDMI and other digital video cables will be a lot cheaper than they are right now, once the connection becomes standard equipment on all TVs. Just look at how inexpensive a lot of computer cables are. Already you can get firewire and USB cables for pretty cheap, and I don't see any reason why HDMI cables won't have a similar price decrease as it becomes more commonplace.


Furthermore, with to many different connectors on the back of each unit competing for our dollars in a down economy, I'm not surprized that I see so many composite and s-video hookups. Actually for most people, the s-video/optical hookups are the simplest and cheapest standards they will pay extra for. Anything beyond that is still considered overkill.

I don't think that the connectors are much of an issue. People will use what's available. That three-way RCA video/audio cable is what comes with most DVD players, so that's what people will use. Once digital connections become more commonplace, then the HDMI cables will be the default, especially with HD-DVD or Blu-ray players.


I know this does not apply to most of us here, but just ask your own extended familty to see how they have things hooked up. Unless you've hooked it up for them, they probably won't even know how to answer your question. Another fun test is to go down to CC, BB, or GG and ask them what cable you should buy. The pimple-faced sales guy isn't going to know that either. BlueRay and HD-DVD is so far removed from most people's lives that downloadable content will arrive before they have replaced their players and beloved movie collections.

Oh they already know which cable you should buy -- the most expensive ones! :)