Housing bubble

[mystic]

Greenspan has said some areas in the U.S. have a housing froth. I think "froth" means a lot of small bubbles. Others just say there is a housing bubble. Regardless of how the housing market is characterized, it seems likely housing prices will plateau if not decline in areas where appreciation has been greatest. When the peak will be reached in a particular area, however, is anyone's guess.

I'm thinking about buying a house worth about 25% more than the one I now own. My current house is mortgage free, my income is secure, and I can pay cash or finance the more expensive house. Price appreciation has been phenomenal in my area, and we may have a bubble or one in the making. While I would not be risking financial ruin by moving up, I wonder whether I should buy now or wait for a bursted bubble. I also wonder whether I should finance (rates are attractively low) or pay cash.

I realize Forum members are not fortune tellers, and can't tell me with certainty what is the best thing to do. However, I would appreciate your thoughts.

[ericl]

I live in one of the hottest markets in the US, the bay area/santa cruz. I bought a few years ago, and have seen the value of my place rise at an unbelievable clip. I am greatly interested in this notion of a bubble. I follow it quite a bit, but unfortunately I am not very good at synthesizing everything I've learned, or predicting anything. Mostly this stuff will be out of my a$$ and nothing you haven't heard, but here goes:

My take is that as long as people are willing to pay the prices they are paying, there will be no significant decline. There is a finite amount of land available, especially in nice coastal areas like the bay area. There is always a growing population looking for housing. Demand will keep increasing but supply will remain limited. This fundamental will not change, despite the doomsaying.

Also, the long term trend for real estate is pretty much ALWAYS upward, anywhere you go. There may be some stagnation in small boon-dock places like my tiny home town in the San Joaquin Valley, or small periods of decline in popular places like the bay after a big earthquake, but prices always recover and continue upward.

The major thing that will affect home prices will be loan rates. The low rates we have been enjoying for so long have kept home prices up. People can deal with expensive home prices when rates are low. I haven't a freakin' clue how Greenspan and his magical Fed oompa loompas determine what interest rates should be, but if rates go up significantly, then you can expect home prices to drop.

After all that, in the bay area at least, it is obvious that we are not going to be able to sustain the kind of growth we are seeing. There is a limit to what people can afford. I think we'll see a plateau soon, maybe a slight decline, but no disastrous drop. Another thing to consider is, maybe, heretofore, home prices were way undervalued, and we are seeing them catch up with the great economic growth we had in the 90's.

Remember, I am just a dumb kid doing a poor job of regurgitating what I've read and heard. So don't listen to me. :cool:

-e

[piece-it pete]

Boy for not being a fortune teller you've sure read my mind.

I recently became a homeowner so I've been following this topic with interest. If it's a general bubble that means I overpaid!

It appears the general consensus is it depends on where you're located (although there's doomsayers on one side and naysayers on the other). On the coasts where appreciations' been HOT is where the greatest danger is, according to folks who may or may not have an accurate crystal ball.

Although if you sell a home in one of those areas, then buy one, you are winning on the sale and losing on the buy. It seems to me that percentage wise it would be a wash? Well as long as you don't paln to sell the new house anyway. Gotta think about that one!

One huge advantage to your (enviable) position - with the size of your likely downpayment it is unlikely you will actually be stuck "upside down". Here in slow & steady Cleveland I've got 20-25% equity and feel I should be ok as long as there isn't an actual depression.

Anyway, my .02. I read this once in a mad magazine: I think you'll go far, I think you'll make dough. But don't go by me 'cause, what do I know?

Pete

[piece-it pete]

oompa loompas?

:D

Pete

[ericl]

oompa loompas?

:D

Pete

heheh

[mystic]

HI Ericl and Pete,

I agree with everything you guys said. We believe a temporary housing price drop or plateau may be coming soon. Who knows how long "temporary" will be? After a run up in the late 1970's and early 1980's, the housing market in my area was kind of flat for about 10 years. So maybe thinking in terms of a 10-year dry spell in the future is not unreasonable. Housing prices, like stocks, go up in spurts rather than rising steadily. Perhaps when the housing market cools the stock market will pick up. According to an article in the Economist, however, when this housing market cools the economy may go into a recession. I hope not.

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4079458

[topspeed]

I'm in real estate, so I thought I'd give y'all the industry's take:

There is a very real bubble. Prices, especially in the truly hot markets, are being artificially inflated by "mom & pop" investors that are buying with their hearts instead of their heads. My county was recently ranked as the 3rd hottest investment opportunity in the entire freakin' nation. Terrific, right? Wrong. Now every Tom, Dick, and Jane from LA to Boston is buying up properties at obscenely inflated values, manytimes buying into negative cashflow situations. They are under the misguided belief that their equity will grow by 38%, as it did last year, and are therefore willing to swallow the deficit. This is stupidity at its worst. You never buy negative...ever. Now the market is flooded with rentals and as we all know from Econ 101, if your supply dramatically ramps up in the face of constant demand, what happens to prices? They go DOWN (very good, here's a sucker for the kid in the second row). Therefore, not only are investments not returning positive, they are actually getting worse!

Case in Point: Las Vegas
April '04; Vegas has an inventory of 1,500 homes with an absorbtion ratio (how fast properties are selling/month) of around 70%.
April '05; Vegas has an inventory of 15,000+ homes (that's not a typo kids) with an absorbtion ratio of 20% and dropping like a rock. Builders, faced with mounting inventories and crushing burdens from their construction loans, slash prices by $150,000 PER HOUSE. Investors, most from California that have pulled their equity trying to do in Vegas what others are now attempting in Central Cal, watch helplessly as their entire portfolio evaporates into the desert air. Sounds fun, eh?

The bubble will burst. It isn't if, it's when. Our estimates are within the next 8-12 months, tops. Greenspan has already stated many times over that he will keep increasing the prime throughout the year. Thankfully, most of the investors have taken this into account which is why when he raised the rate last time, the long-term yields held steady. They've buffered for it. This too will come to an end. Real estate is cyclical. It always has been, it always will be. For those old enough, all you have to do is remember the boom of the late '80's and the crash of the '90's. This millenium has been boom for Cali so far, but there are already many areas (Texas, Michigan) that are in a slide. It's coming, just wait for it.

If you want to invest, I'd recommend you look into Texas. Austin and San Antonio are both 2 years deep into their slide. Because of their demographics however, you can still turn a positive cashflow quite easily. Which do you think is smarter, buying at the bottom or the top of the market?

[bjornb17]

great post topspeed! it's definately a great dose of reality for the uninformed.

[ericl]

great post topspeed! it's definately a great dose of reality for the uninformed.

Indeed.. I should learn to keep my mouth shut.
"All I know is that I don't know s**t!"

[EFE Speakers]

I grew up and lived in CA all my life until 1 1/2 years ago. Made money in every Real Estate deal I touched. There were usually dips in the market about every ten years, and then it climbed upward again. This time the bubble has continued to bloat longer than I've ever seen in 30 years of investing, and because it has gotten so inflated the next dip will be worse than ever and there is going to be more repos and bankruptcies than ever in the history of the state! Financial institutes have been a big culprit in helping this bubble swell, and the day of reckoning is coming for them!

Tons of Californians like myself have sold and got out before waiting any longer and taking a chance of losing a lot of our equity, many have moved to places where Real Estate is on the upward swing but has a long ways to go before becoming inflated like CA. I have met many native Californians who have moved out here to Prescott AZ, paid cash for their primary residence and bought a second home to rent out and get a nice income. Those people who think that property values in CA are going to contiue to increase are playing Russian Roulette and just might get caught with their panties down and no toilet paper to clean themselves with. When the market falls, it will be big this time and it won't recover as before because of the difference in over borrowing by homeowners, many have borrowed much more than their house will be worth when the bubble pops! I've never seen such stupidity in Real Estate in all the years I've invested, but people just don't believe doom is coming, they're in for a big surprise!

California was once a wonderful state to live in, but now is filled with liberals running it, a debt that is growing, illegals galore making the debt even worse, taxes going up and the freeways jammed with bumper to bumper traffic in the middle of the day and little plans to relieve the congestion in the near future. I loved it for most of my life, but now a million bucks a year couldn't get me to go back there, I love Prescott! (( ;

Ed Frias

[kexodusc]

Case in Point: Las Vegas
April '04; Vegas has an inventory of 1,500 homes with an absorbtion ratio (how fast properties are selling/month) of around 70%.
April '05; Vegas has an inventory of 15,000+ homes (that's not a typo kids) with an absorbtion ratio of 20% and dropping like a rock. Builders, faced with mounting inventories and crushing burdens from their construction loans, slash prices by $150,000 PER HOUSE. Investors, most from California that have pulled their equity trying to do in Vegas what others are now attempting in Central Cal, watch helplessly as their entire portfolio evaporates into the desert air. Sounds fun, eh?

The bubble will burst. It isn't if, it's when. Our estimates are within the next 8-12 months, tops. Greenspan has already stated many times over that he will keep increasing the prime throughout the year. Thankfully, most of the investors have taken this into account which is why when he raised the rate last time, the long-term yields held steady. They've buffered for it. This too will come to an end. Real estate is cyclical. It always has been, it always will be. For those old enough, all you have to do is remember the boom of the late '80's and the crash of the '90's. This millenium has been boom for Cali so far, but there are already many areas (Texas, Michigan) that are in a slide. It's coming, just wait for it.

I work in investment management. Our agency unloaded US real estate investments long ago, and I know many other financial institutions are getting out. Much of the bubble can be attributed to the low interst rates. Real estate investments tend to behave like bonds. These low rates cannot last forever. Herd mentality is driving the masses to real-estate right now. This is dangerous - the supply/demand issues notwithstanding, when rates increase values will decline, and people run the risk of increased financing on over-valued properties. There's real potential for a massive collapse in the entire US real-estate market. Places like California look like they'll take the worst of it.

The joke I hear now (which isn't that funny) from the analysts that cover real-estate is to wait for the spike in bankruptcies and buy homes at pennies on the dollar.

Since moving to Canada last year I've learned that essentially the same thing is going on here as well. This doesn't bode well for North America, especially with Asian markets starting to take off.

[topspeed]

You know what's interesting guys? I belong to a couple of other boards, mainly auto related (it's not a moniker, it's a lifestyle ;)), but this board has to have the most intelligent, mature members that I know of. If I tried to have a discussion on investment strategies on another board, I'd be talking to myself. Maybe it's the clinical side of audiophiles? Whatever, it's very refreshing.

[kexodusc]

You know what's interesting guys? I belong to a couple of other boards, mainly auto related (it's not a moniker, it's a lifestyle ;)), but this board has to have the most intelligent, mature members that I know of. If I tried to have a discussion on investment strategies on another board, I'd be talking to myself. Maybe it's the clinical side of audiophiles? Whatever, it's very refreshing.

Maybe, but I bet they're spelling/grammer is alot better than are's...:D

[EFE Speakers]

You know what's interesting guys? I belong to a couple of other boards, mainly auto related (it's not a moniker, it's a lifestyle ;)), but this board has to have the most intelligent, mature members that I know of. If I tried to have a discussion on investment strategies on another board, I'd be talking to myself. Maybe it's the clinical side of audiophiles? Whatever, it's very refreshing.

Hey Topspeed,
You must be talking about kexodusc and the other posters, I'm just a little old speaker builder that lives in a little mountain town that doesn't know anything but how to solder wires to a board, hook them up to some cones and cross my fingers that it all works! Sometimes I'm fortunate and it sounds ok. (( ;

Ed

[topspeed]

Hey Topspeed,
You must be talking about kexodusc and the other posters, I'm just a little old speaker builder that lives in a little mountain town that doesn't know anything but how to solder wires to a board, hook them up to some cones and cross my fingers that it all works! Sometimes I'm fortunate and it sounds ok. (( ;

Ed
Ed, you've got a Z06 on order. You could be a ditch digger (not that there's anything wrong with that) and you'd be alright in my book! :D

[kexodusc]

I'm just a little old speaker builder that lives in a little mountain town that doesn't know anything but how to solder wires to a board, hook them up to some cones and cross my fingers that it all works! Sometimes I'm fortunate and it sounds ok. (( ;


That has to be the understatement of the year.

[PAT.P]

I work in investment management. Our agency unloaded US real estate investments long ago, and I know many other financial institutions are getting out. Much of the bubble can be attributed to the low interst rates. Real estate investments tend to behave like bonds. These low rates cannot last forever. Herd mentality is driving the masses to real-estate right now. This is dangerous - the supply/demand issues notwithstanding, when rates increase values will decline, and people run the risk of increased financing on over-valued properties. There's real potential for a massive collapse in the entire US real-estate market. Places like California look like they'll take the worst of it.

The joke I hear now (which isn't that funny) from the analysts that cover real-estate is to wait for the spike in bankruptcies and buy homes at pennies on the dollar.

Since moving to Canada last year I've learned that essentially the same thing is going on here as well. This doesn't bode well for North America, especially with Asian markets starting to take off.
Kexodusc Thats what Im waiting for the next Real Estate crash .People buy way over their needs and when the interest will double, their payment double and they just walk away.By the way where did you moved to ? East or west of Canada ,Im in the Ottawa region.Pat.P

[Woochifer]

This is also a topic that I follow with great interest because a lot of my work is with planning agencies and developers. I've been in agreement with the economists who've been saying that the housing bubble is due to burst at any time. Of course, like them, I've been saying this for almost three years, and have to concur with their belief that one of these years that prediction will be right!

In a regional economic conference I recently attended in the Bay Area, the panelists pretty much said that the factors that traditionally sustain real estate cycles are rising incomes, job growth, and interest rates. Over the past five years in California, we've had real income contraction and a net loss of jobs, so really the only thing left to sustain the real estate growth that we've seen is the interest rates. That same panel indicated that the market can probably sustain up to about a one percent rise in interest rates before it noticeably slows down residential demand. Once the interest rates go up by two percent or more, then the market will contract, unless the economy also shows a significant uptick in job and income growth.

One of the more interesting indicators that I read recently about how to forecast a housing bubble is to compare the ratio of housing prices with rents. Nationally, the growth rate with housing prices have far outpaced the rents, and here in California, rents have actually gone down since the dotcom implosion, while housing prices have skyrocketed. Generally, rents track the job and income growth very closely, while housing purchase prices have other factors to consider (equity accumulation, interest rates, etc.). Economists who write about the price/rent ratio have pretty much all indicated that this kind of trend cannot be sustained.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/05/real_estate/rentprices/
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2004/el2004-27.html

Another crutch that has been sustaining the residential market has been the explosion in interest-only loans. I believe that three or four years ago, only about two percent of residential loans were interest-only, but now that number has climbed to 31 percent, and in hyperinflated markets like the Bay Area, Southern California, and D.C., I've seen figures over 50 percent. What the use of interest-only loans does is lower the monthly payment at the outset, and bring more buyers into the market who otherwise could not afford to buy a particular home.

The net effect though is to create a stimulus that artificially props up the market beyond what's sustainable. Once the growth of interest-only loans tapers off, then this stimulus effect also goes away, once again leaving the market forces to sustain the residential prices. And if the use of interest-only loans decreases, then it has a depressing effect on the market because that represents a decrease in demand and consumers who can afford to buy houses. A lot of economists are forecasting that the rise of interest-only loans will also produce a surge in defaults and repossessions when the principal on these loans start to come due in about five years.

Additional fodder to add to the mix is that the percentage of homes purchased speculatively has grown to 23 percent nationally. I believe that's more than 50 percent higher than the rate of speculation from a few years ago. That's typically yet another sign of trouble. Topspeed's example of the Las Vegas market is a really good one because my understanding is that speculation was rampant up until the market peak, and when it showed signs of weakness, then the speculators pulled out big time.

[Woochifer]

There's real potential for a massive collapse in the entire US real-estate market. Places like California look like they'll take the worst of it.

The joke I hear now (which isn't that funny) from the analysts that cover real-estate is to wait for the spike in bankruptcies and buy homes at pennies on the dollar.

A whole lotta people here in Cali don't remember the last huge housing recession that occurred in the late-80s/early-90s. In Silicon Valley, the housing prices took a 25% hit in one year. I personally know people who could not dump their properties because the values dropped so low that they owed more on the principal than the house was worth. In real dollar terms, the housing prices from the 1989 peak did not fully recover until sometime in 2001/2002. The situation right now is dangerously mirroring what occurred back then, except this time you got all these creative financing gimmicks that have kept the price growth going ... and make any market correction all the more extreme this time around.

Historically, housing in the U.S. has always been cyclical and grown at rate of around one percent in real dollar terms. California had been the exception up until the late-80s recession. When I was between jobs in the early-90s, one of the temp assignments that I took on was to man open houses on repossessed properties. One of these properties was a 20 or so unit condo complex close to the beach, and at least eight of the units in that one development had been repossessed and about to get auctioned off.


Since moving to Canada last year I've learned that essentially the same thing is going on here as well. This doesn't bode well for North America, especially with Asian markets starting to take off.

I think though in Canada, the balance between supply and demand on the housing has always been far better managed regionally than what you typically see in the U.S. Canadian cities typically have more inclusive land use policies that better balance between job growth, housing demand, and regional commute patterns. When I visited Montreal a couple of years ago, I saw market rate condos that were selling for under $100,000CDN. These were small units inside high rises, and they weren't in the most desirable neighborhoods, but they were reasonably accessible to the city center and represented a viable option that you don't see nearly as often in large U.S. cities. In Canada, there's generally more attention paid to planning for a wider range of housing, and balancing the job growth with the housing growth.

California's balance between jobs and housing has gotten so far out of whack that it actually fuels these kinds of wild fluctuations in the housing market. Ever since Proposition 13 passed in 1978 and locked the property tax growth rates at one percent annually, local governments have had to increasingly "fiscalize" their land use policies, since the real dollar value of property taxes decreases every year. The short of it is that it creates a major financial disincentive for cities in urbanized areas to allow new housing, since new residents create new demand for schools, public safety services, parks, etc., while business parks and big box retail centers create minimal demand for public services while generating huge amounts of sales and use taxes. Plus, there's the normal NIMBYism (not in my backyard), where residents who already own property want to raise up the walls and prevent any new housing from developing.

In Silicon Valley, you had a huge spate of construction activity on business parks that now sit empty, yet even after the dotcom implosion, the regional housing supply still lags way behind the demand that the job base creates. Housing construction has now been pushed out into the Central Valley, creating commutes of 2+ hours each way for people who choose to live out there. What this situation boils down to is overdevelopment of industrial and commercial uses and minimal housing development in the urbanized metro areas, which pushes housing out into the periphery and creates the potential for huge fluctuations in the housing prices since supply cannot increase with demand in the urbanized areas due to exclusive land use policies and disincentives in the tax structure.

[PAT.P]

Woochifer Great article on RealEstate owning vs renting.Sure looks like a bubble .Where I live the rental property 5 years ago was very thight 1% .Interest started falling house were being built at a premium.The market went over the roof not enought re-sale home for demand .People were paying more than the asking price .Rental vacancy was up landlord were giving 2 mounth free rent to get tenants.Vacancy was up to around 6% .Now alot of the older owners are selling their home for rental or smaller townhome .Property tax went up ,heat and hydro also .It is cheaper renting when all utility are included .Pat.P

[piece-it pete]

I saw an article it last Sundays' paper about the National Association of Realtors' take on this - their second in command said basically that because the prices per sf in our secondary markets aren't as high as Tokyo or London that there is no danger of collapse.

Thanks goodness!

:rolleyes:

Pete

[GMichael]

I saw an article it last Sundays' paper about the National Association of Realtors' take on this - their second in command said basically that because the prices per sf in our secondary markets aren't as high as Tokyo or London that there is no danger of collapse.

Thanks goodness!

:rolleyes:

Pete

So I can buy my new house and still keep my piece of mind? Way cool.

[piece-it pete]

Hey, if you listen to the NAR you can pay 20% over market value!

They'd be FINE with it.

Pete

[GMichael]

Just as long as they don't mind. Do they have any bridges for sale?

[Woochifer]

I saw an article it last Sundays' paper about the National Association of Realtors' take on this - their second in command said basically that because the prices per sf in our secondary markets aren't as high as Tokyo or London that there is no danger of collapse.

Thanks goodness!

:rolleyes:

Pete

Glad to know that we can count on them for factual market-based information!

How the hell does anyone say that with a straight face? Unfreaking real. I guess I should start converting grain elevators in the rural Midwest into housing because the price per s.f. in those markets is off the charts low!


Hey, if you listen to the NAR you can pay 20% over market value!

They'd be FINE with it.

Pete

Optimism reigns supreme. Is it any wonder we have so many dotcom refugees now getting their real estate licenses? In Cali, if not for the huge upsurge in jobs tied to real estate and residential mortgage lending, we would have had totally flat job growth over the past three or so years. Scary to think that if the residential market hiccups just a tiny bit, we're back in recession.

[trollgirl]

Did you guys hear about the mobile home for sale in [IIRC] Malibu, CA? It had an ocean view, was in a gated, guarded MHP, and was NOT even a doublewide. The asking price, and this was a few weeks ago. was $1.4 MILLION!!! The lot rent was $2500/month. 'Nuff said...

Laz

[EFE Speakers]

Glad to know that we can count on them for factual market-based information!

How the hell does anyone say that with a straight face? Unfreaking real. I guess I should start converting grain elevators in the rural Midwest into housing because the price per s.f. in those markets is off the charts low!



Optimism reigns supreme. Is it any wonder we have so many dotcom refugees now getting their real estate licenses? In Cali, if not for the huge upsurge in jobs tied to real estate and residential mortgage lending, we would have had totally flat job growth over the past three or so years. Scary to think that if the residential market hiccups just a tiny bit, we're back in recession.


There are three major causes that have contributed to this overpriced inflated California Real Estate market!

1. The lending institutions who make these outrageous "interest only loans" to people who otherwise couldn't qualify for a normal 30 year fixed or even a variable interest rate loan! Then when the loans come due in 3 to 5 years, what do they think these people are going to do, refinance when short term loans are 2% higher and going up? No way, its reckoning time!


2. The Real Estate sales people who continue to spue their hype to cause buyers to buy now before the market goes higher, convincing them that the already over inflated prices are really a good deal. Oh yeh, it's a good deal for them since they are making commissions larger than they've ever seen in history! They refuse to look at the signs of the coming gloom and convince buyers to go in debt no matter what the cost, only causing more potential bankruptcies when the big bubble pops!

3. Lastly, the blind buyers who pay these outrageously high prices believing there is no end to this already thin skinned ready to pop bubble! Forget that very few buyers can afford these houses without creative financing, or that even when these buyers get in they will see the largest property tax bills they've ever experienced at the end of the year, so large it could choke a cow! Then you have the sellers who know they should unload now but hold on for an even bigger profit. Relatives of mine keep holding on to their small $700,000 tract homes in hope of making just a little more money before the market falls.
As the gambler says; "Know when to hold and know when to fold." A lot of people are holding who have little experience in gambling, or, have not watched or studied Real Estate over the last 40 years.

The doom sayers (most sensible economist) predicted a possible market fall at the end of last year, then possibly sometime this year and it hasn't happen. So now those that cry wolf sound like a bunch of broken records and all think things will go on as usual, so they hope! Will or can these inflated prices continue to go up without a market correction? I say they have already passed that point and are artificially being sustained by the above mentioned. When the fall comes it will be the worse correction in California history and many will be stuck with no way out, owning homes that are worth much less than they owe on them. Time will tell!

Ed Frias

[EFE Speakers]

***********

[Woochifer]

There are three major causes that have contributed to this overpriced inflated California Real Estate market!

1. The lending institutions who make these outrageous "interest only loans" to people who otherwise couldn't qualify for a normal 30 year fixed or even a variable interest rate loan! Then when the loans come due in 3 to 5 years, what do they think these people are going to do, refinance when short term loans are 2% higher and going up? No way, its reckoning time!

The interest rates are the primary leg that continues to drive the upward escalation in real estate prices in Cali. In the Bay Area, there's plenty of pent up demand, but the gap between purchase prices and rent has widened to an unprecedented level. The scary part about the interest-only loans is that we're in completely uncharted territory, not only in Cali but all over the country. Interest only loans made up only about two percent of the mortgage market three years ago. Now, it constitutes 31% of the mortgages nationally, and over half of the loans in inflated markets like the Bay Area, Southern California, and the D.C. area. We have no idea what the effect will be in about three or four years, when the principal starts coming due on these loans. With relatively flat income and job growth, this indicates at least some risk of an uptick in defaults. (And increased supply of housing units on the market) I read that the last time interest only loans were used to this extent was right before the Great Depression.


2. The Real Estate sales people who continue to spue their hype to cause buyers to buy now before the market goes higher, convincing them that the already over inflated prices are really a good deal. Oh yeh, it's a good deal for them since they are making commissions larger than they've ever seen in history! They refuse to look at the signs of the coming gloom and convince buyers to go in debt no matter what the cost, only causing more potential bankruptcies when the big bubble pops!

Also consider that the number of realtors has skyrocketed over the past five years. Plenty of articles came out a couple of years ago about how dotcom refugees were turning to real estate as their new vocation of choice. Unfortunately for them, the current real estate cycle resembles the irrational exuberance that accompanied the dotcom driven stock surge from a few years ago.


3. Lastly, the blind buyers who pay these outrageously high prices believing there is no end to this already thin skinned ready to pop bubble! Forget that very few buyers can afford these houses without creative financing, or that even when these buyers get in they will see the largest property tax bills they've ever experienced at the end of the year, so large it could choke a cow! Then you have the sellers who know they should unload now but hold on for an even bigger profit. Relatives of mine keep holding on to their small $700,000 tract homes in hope of making just a little more money before the market falls.
As the gambler says; "Know when to hold and know when to fold." A lot of people are holding who have little experience in gambling, or, have not watched or studied Real Estate over the last 40 years.

There's also the element of speculation to consider. Topspeed already mentioned how the Las Vegas housing market, which was touted as the hottest in the country just over a year ago, has collapsed over the last few months. I read that at the market peak, up to half of the units sold were going to speculators. Nationally, I believe that the speculation rate has gone up from (I can't remember the exact figure) 15-18% to close to 25% over the last few years. That's usually a sign of trouble.

Some friends of ours bought a million dollar home a few months ago and had to take out three loans to complete that transaction. Sad part is that they had a nice modest home that was purchased several years ago when the prices were still reasonable. Their property tax bill will now be more about $15k annually, which is more than my wife and I pay on our mortgage! (She was smart by buying into undervalued neighborhood during the last recession)


The doom sayers (most sensible economist) predicted a possible market fall at the end of last year, then possibly sometime this year and it hasn't happen. So now those that cry wolf sound like a bunch of broken records and all think things will go on as usual, so they hope! Will or can these inflated prices continue to go up without a market correction? I say they have already passed that point and are artificially being sustained by the above mentioned. When the fall comes it will be the worse correction in California history and many will be stuck with no way out, owning homes that are worth much less than they owe on them. Time will tell!

Ed Frias

The thing about California is that they've defied real estate cycles historically, and that led to a false sense of confidence. Taken as a whole, housing appreciates by about one percent annually in real dollar terms. California had always far outpaced that rate until the housing market collapsed in the early-90s.

I think the housing bubble in California would have burst a year or two ago if not for the interest only loans keeping a sizable portion of potential buyers in the game. The economists that I've heard at these regional forums have been saying that the job and income indicators are not contributing to the housing market, which leaves the interest rates as the remaining indicator sustaining growth. If job and income growth don't substantially pick up, then I think two things on the interest front will lead to a market correction -- 1) if the interest rates rise by another one percent or more; or 2) if rate of adoption with these interest only loans stops growing or contracts. And we're not even talking about the potential flood of units coming onto the market in a few years if loan defaults start to increase with principal starting to come due on those interest only loans.

As mentioned before, we're in completely uncharted territory right now, and unfortunately Cali does not have the level of economic growth needed to sustain the housing market once the interest rates are no longer at historic lows.

[kexodusc]

The interest rates are the primary leg that continues to drive the upward escalation in real estate prices in Cali. In the Bay Area, there's plenty of pent up demand, but the gap between purchase prices and rent has widened to an unprecedented level. The scary part about the interest-only loans is that we're in completely uncharted territory, not only in Cali but all over the country. Interest only loans made up only about two percent of the mortgage market three years ago. Now, it constitutes 31% of the mortgages nationally, and over half of the loans in inflated markets like the Bay Area, Southern California, and the D.C. area. We have no idea what the effect will be in about three or four years, when the principal starts coming due on these loans. With relatively flat income and job growth, this indicates at least some risk of an uptick in defaults. (And increased supply of housing units on the market) I read that the last time interest only loans were used to this extent was right before the Great Depression.



Also consider that the number of realtors has skyrocketed over the past five years. Plenty of articles came out a couple of years ago about how dotcom refugees were turning to real estate as their new vocation of choice. Unfortunately for them, the current real estate cycle resembles the irrational exuberance that accompanied the dotcom driven stock surge from a few years ago.



There's also the element of speculation to consider. Topspeed already mentioned how the Las Vegas housing market, which was touted as the hottest in the country just over a year ago, has collapsed over the last few months. I read that at the market peak, up to half of the units sold were going to speculators. Nationally, I believe that the speculation rate has gone up from (I can't remember the exact figure) 15-18% to close to 25% over the last few years. That's usually a sign of trouble.

Some friends of ours bought a million dollar home a few months ago and had to take out three loans to complete that transaction. Sad part is that they had a nice modest home that was purchased several years ago when the prices were still reasonable. Their property tax bill will now be more about $15k annually, which is more than my wife and I pay on our mortgage! (She was smart by buying into undervalued neighborhood during the last recession)



The thing about California is that they've defied real estate cycles historically, and that led to a false sense of confidence. Taken as a whole, housing appreciates by about one percent annually in real dollar terms. California had always far outpaced that rate until the housing market collapsed in the early-90s.

I think the housing bubble in California would have burst a year or two ago if not for the interest only loans keeping a sizable portion of potential buyers in the game. The economists that I've heard at these regional forums have been saying that the job and income indicators are not contributing to the housing market, which leaves the interest rates as the remaining indicator sustaining growth. If job and income growth don't substantially pick up, then I think two things on the interest front will lead to a market correction -- 1) if the interest rates rise by another one percent or more; or 2) if rate of adoption with these interest only loans stops growing or contracts. And we're not even talking about the potential flood of units coming onto the market in a few years if loan defaults start to increase with principal starting to come due on those interest only loans.

As mentioned before, we're in completely uncharted territory right now, and unfortunately Cali does not have the level of economic growth needed to sustain the housing market once the interest rates are no longer at historic lows.

It's quite ironic how the steps taken to pull our economy out of one recession could ultimately drive us into an even greater. Nothing like borrowing from the future to pay for today.
I spoke with an economist counterpart of mine in South Dakota last week...he mentioned to me that the financial institutions aren't blind to these realities, and we can expect them come up with every possible creative solution to ensure that the default rates on mortgages/loans doesn't increase, and that the housing bubble doesn't suddenly pop.

He seriously believes that 30, 40, even 50 year mortages are on the horizon as the "normal form", and showed me examples of a reverse-amortization mortgages, residential property leases, and a whole slew of other "creative" finance schemes. Smoke and mirror's if you ask me. But he had a good point. If defaults on mortgages start to soar, the financial institutions will find themselves with a bunch over-priced properties in a market with weak demand.

In the end, creative financing this will only shift the risk from a short term market collapse to a long-term financial liability...can't see that being any better.

[Woochifer]

It's quite ironic how the steps taken to pull our economy out of one recession could ultimately drive us into an even greater. Nothing like borrowing from the future to pay for today.
I spoke with an economist counterpart of mine in South Dakota last week...he mentioned to me that the financial institutions aren't blind to these realities, and we can expect them come up with every possible creative solution to ensure that the default rates on mortgages/loans doesn't increase, and that the housing bubble doesn't suddenly pop.

If we get into a market correction similar to what occurred in the early-90s, then there'll be a lot of buyers who owe more than their house is worth. Temptation's strong to just walk away from the deal, and no amount of creative financing will change that situation if these buyers are already paying way above their means just to keep up with interest only payments. A lot of people wound up letting their homes get repossessed in the early-90s because the market had dropped by up to one-third since the time of their purchase, and they owed a lot more than the property was worth. As I mentioned, it wasn't until about a year or two ago that the housing prices in the Bay Area got back to where they were in the late-80s in real dollar terms.

It's unfortunate, but you got a lot of households who earn less than $100,000 trying to buy homes in the $600-$800k+ range. Using normal affordability assumptions like 10% down, applying about 30% of gross income to housing, and using a 30-year mortgage term, families earning $100,000 are normally looking at property in the $400,000 range. Anything above that and you're either stretching beyond normal means, or you need alternative financing to make the numbers add up.


He seriously believes that 30, 40, even 50 year mortages are on the horizon as the "normal form", and showed me examples of a reverse-amortization mortgages, residential property leases, and a whole slew of other "creative" finance schemes. Smoke and mirror's if you ask me. But he had a good point. If defaults on mortgages start to soar, the financial institutions will find themselves with a bunch over-priced properties in a market with weak demand.

I started reading about reverse-amortization mortgages a couple of months ago. That and all of these other financing schemes that you're listing sound absolutely frightening to me. The house of cards already built with the interest-only loans is precarious enough, adding more layers to the mix only adds more to what the juggler's already got in the air.


In the end, creative financing this will only shift the risk from a short term market collapse to a long-term financial liability...can't see that being any better.

Having a long-term drag on the economy isn't a great prospect either. So much of the economic growth that we've had over the last four years has been financed by the growth in residential equity and consumer spending. I'd hate to think that something as tenuous as interest rates has been keeping the American economy afloat, especially with the federal deficit now ballooning out and so much of our debt now held overseas.

[GMichael]

Well, tomorrow I pick up my contract to build our house. We should be done and in it by January. This tells me that, if there is a bubble, it will burst soon. Hope it's a small bubble.

[GooseWashington]

I've been looking forward to buying property for a very long time, because it is important for me to have something of my own. At the same time, I tried to find a good option with an HVAC system so that the house had good air circulation, heating and cooling. True, in most of the options that I looked at, the air ducts were quite dirty, which, of course, is not a problem, considering that there is the dryer vent cleaning NJ (https://www.bestcleaning4u.com/) company whose specialists quickly deal with accumulations of dust and dirt in the pipes.

[jabarihoeger]

I am so happy I found your post because I am searching for information related to the real estate agent and I found your post where I found all the information I need. I also want to know about One Bernam Balance Units (https://newlauncher.com.sg/project/one-bernam) and I think you can help me out in searching for a site online where I can find all information I need regarding one bernam balance units.