Flat Screen HD TV price drops - why?

[MCF]

Does anyone know why the price of flatscreen HD sets are dropping so quickly? A Pioneer Elite Plasma I have been considering has dropped over $800 in the last four months and a Hitachi LCD projection I have been considering has dropped about the same in the last three months....is there a new technology or something about to be released in the coming months? I even saw a quick note on our elevator news screen that the prices of flat screens are dropping sooner than expected but did not get the entire story..anyone?

[edtyct]

Prices for every "new" technology go down eventually. My guess is that higher production and competition from other technologies (especially flat-panel LCDs, which are starting to encroach on sizes that plasma used to dominate) have made price reductions more viable. The bloom is definitely off the rose, so far as plasma is concerned.

Ed

[ericl]

probably because everybody is making them - production is becoming more efficient, and competition is great. There have been a few articles about this in the last couple weeks, I'll try and find some. This is great for us consumers. Just like when DVD player prices started dropping so quickly, I think we're starting to see this with new hdtv technology..

[ericl]

http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000487044937/
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=8610456

[MCF]

Looks like my wife's schedule to decorate the living room (add nice soft couches and a rug to soften in up....and improve the sound quality) will fall in line with my schedule to get the big screen in about 3 months....hopefully prices will continue to fall....would love to see a 50" Pioneer Elite Plasma for around $3500.....wishful thinking.

[EdwardGein]

I'm not sure if by flatscreen HD's you mean HD's that aren't widescreen or not. If you're talking about nonwidescreen ones, sure I can see the price dropping because most people want widescreen ones.

[evil__betty]

If you look around at retailers everywhere, you will notice that they get rid of all of their 'old' product before the 'new' stuff comes out. Right now we are in the middle of the turnover season - all of the manufacturers will be introducing their newest stuff in the next month or two. Pioneer is releasing their new plasmas in July, Samsung is releasing their new DLP's in about a month, and their LCD flat panel t.v.s are already on store shelves. Now it would be nice if the price continue to fall, but if you wait too much longer (don't wait more than a month) you will be dissapointed to find that all the A/V stores will no longer have the tlevision that you wanted but will have replaced it with the 'new and improved' model at a higher price point. And if you wait for the new ones to drop in price, you will encounter that they will also drop in price over the next summer and then models to replace them will start showing up. If you keep that up you won't ever buy a t.v. because you will be waiting for the better price. Meanwhile, all of us who bought the t.v. earlier, at a higher cost, will be laughing at you and your 27" while we enjoy the 60" that fills our home theatre. Don't drag your feet too long!

[topspeed]

Evil, where ya been? Good to see you online.

I read somewhere that last year a prominent flat screen manufacturer (the kind that sells to "brands" not end retailers) nearly doubled it's capacity and dramatically reduced prices. Unfortunately, the "brands" were unwilling to drop their prices even though their costs had come down. This naturally left me somewhat peeved. Perhaps what we're seeing now is the benefits of that increased capacity along with ever increasing competition. Wooch keeps up on this stuff a lot, maybe he'll chime in.

[Woochifer]

I think Evil Betty nailed it. A lot of the recent reductions you see are models that have been out for a while and due for replacement soon. But, from what I've seen, the new models coming out don't cost that much more than what the old models sold for on closeout. The new Samsung DLPs have arrived at some Best Buy stores, and they were already discounting them, even though the previous models are still in stock at closeout prices.

As topspeed mentioned, a lot of manufacturers have been trying to keep the prices and margins on big screen flat panels high for the time being. But, in the last few months, I've seen the prices start to erode after they'd held steady for about the past half year or so. With so many manufacturers readying new product introductions, the price points are dropping on the older models and the new models have lower list prices than the previous versions did.

An article in today's NY Times quoted an analyst that expects 42" plasma prices to drop from an average of $2,900 right now to about $2,500 by year's end. That article also mentioned that a reason for the price slide is that the picture quality has basically remained unchanged in recent revisions. It mentioned that the next big step in HD is the widespread introduction of 1080p RPTV and LCD models into the market this summer. For now, plasma will remain on the sidelines on that step, which puts further downward price pressures on the plasmas on the market.

Another issue of course is the increase in capacity. Last time I checked, a lot of new manufacturing facilities will come on line by early next year. That will introduce more supply into the market and potentially further reduce prices (all of that of course is contingent on how quickly the demand heats up).

[Geoffcin]

As Woochifer notes;

The 1080p sets due to come online soon are going to blow the others out of the water in resolution, and drive the prices of lower resolution sets down. If, in addition, the economy goes a little soft over the next few months, stores are going to be dumping the lower resolution sets at steep discounts just to move them out of the stores. It's looking more and more like a buyers market will be setting up over the next year or so.

[topspeed]

I dunno Geoff. A lot of the conversations we've been having at another forum suggests that it's going to be quite awhile before the front ends catch up with the 1080p's. 720p is de riguer right now and dvd manufacturer's, encoders, hd-stb manufacturer's, et al. aren't going to be too keen on retooling everything to 1080p overnight. It's going to take 'em a bit of time. Besides, like Evil Betty noted, you can keep waiting on the sidelines for the next big price drop, next big technological advance, or next big reason to keep watching your outdated tv or just jump in and buy the best you can right now. It's like computers, tv's are becoming outdated by the month, not the year. My office computer is only a year old yet it's antiquated by today's standards but what are you going to do?

[edtyct]

Everything true. Plasmas are easy to produce at this point, and the prices have been propped up artifically, largely because of the ongoing perception of them in some circles as the next big thing, for way too long. But plasma's reputation as the big kid on the block has been eroding for a while, thanks not only to thin RP microdisplays with attractive pictures and prices but also to the fact that flat panel LCDs are encroaching on the sizes that plasmas once had all to themselves. When you add the fact that many "affordable" plasmas are stuck at best at 1024x768 resolution, compared to LCDs, which can get to 1920x1080 in a smaller package, or at least to 1280x768, plasma begins to look down right clunky and archaic (not to mention the burn-in issue). Resolution numbers definitely contribute to public conception of quality; even if they don't always amount to as much an improvement as touted, they have an impact on sales at relatively even prices.

The 1080p sets poised to enter the fray will, by the nature of their novelty, drive down other prices, but it would be a mistake to think of them unequivocably blowing away the formats that we have now. First of all, the number of these displays that will be capable of actually accepting 1080p (wherever it may come from), as opposed to merely upconverting to it, is a bit of a mystery. Second, a 1080p set with a screen size that most people can fit, or afford, in their homes will not be able to take advantage of the added fill factor. People would have to sit with their noses pressed against the screen to resolve the extra pixels, and that gets old very quickly. Where 1080p will have the most legitimate impact will be on big screens, at appropriate distances, on which lesser resolutions can look soft.

Topspeed's got it. The evolution of functions and forms will continue in a way that will negate price advantages for once-new technologies. Believe me, the manufacturers are way ahead of where we think they are now. In some sense, the next big thing that hasn't even happened yet is already backdated. At one point, the naive idea was that plasmas would rule the world.

Ed

[Geoffcin]

I dunno Geoff. A lot of the conversations we've been having at another forum suggests that it's going to be quite awhile before the front ends catch up with the 1080p's. 720p is de riguer right now and dvd manufacturer's, encoders, hd-stb manufacturer's, et al. aren't going to be too keen on retooling everything to 1080p overnight. It's going to take 'em a bit of time. Besides, like Evil Betty noted, you can keep waiting on the sidelines for the next big price drop, next big technological advance, or next big reason to keep watching your outdated tv or just jump in and buy the best you can right now. It's like computers, tv's are becoming outdated by the month, not the year. My office computer is only a year old yet it's antiquated by today's standards but what are you going to do?

As soon as the true 1080p sets hit the stores they will be THE hot item, everything else will be second hand news. I'm not saying that 720 sets aren't good, just that the 1080 sets will be "where it's at" and that will serve to push the 720 set price down.

[evil__betty]

Evil, where ya been? Good to see you online.

With the spring weather, less and less time is being spent in front of a computer. Glad to be back, though!

[MARTINLOGAN123]

Does anyone know why the price of flatscreen HD sets are dropping so quickly? A Pioneer Elite Plasma I have been considering has dropped over $800 in the last four months and a Hitachi LCD projection I have been considering has dropped about the same in the last three months....is there a new technology or something about to be released in the coming months? I even saw a quick note on our elevator news screen that the prices of flat screens are dropping sooner than expected but did not get the entire story..anyone?

New technologies come out all the time. For example... QUALIA.

[Geoffcin]

New technologies come out all the time. For example... QUALIA.

But after 1080p there's going to be quite a lull, perhaps a decade. Then maybe 3D tech? Who knows....